Matt Duffy

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1991-01-15

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	31	AAALAA	38	.171/.237/.257	1	0	5	—	.139/.184/.222
2022	31	MLBLAA	247	.250/.308/.311	2	0	80	-0.1
2023	32	MLBKC	209	.251/.309/.325	2	1	83	0.0
2024	33	AAATEX	216	.218/.298/.280	2	1	34	—	.189/.242/.229
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Speed40

xwOBA39

Avg EV23

Bat Spd17

Barrel%10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	22	A+	San Jose Giants	—	115	106	31	6	1	5	7	16	1	3	1	292	342	509	852	217	306	14	6	370	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	339	287	88	14	3	4	45	41	3	22	6	307	406	418	824	111	346	12	13	370	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	64	60	16	2	0	0	1	14	2	0	1	267	302	300	602	33	348	22	2	272	72	-2	-0	+0	+5	+1	0.4
2014	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	417	367	122	24	4	3	42	66	2	20	4	332	404	444	848	112	391	16	10	376	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	169	28	6	12	30	96	5	12	0	295	336	428	763	133	336	16	5	337	119	+14	+2	+9	+2	+13	4.1
2016	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	366	333	86	14	2	5	23	53	4	8	5	258	314	357	671	99	290	14	6	299	87	-6	-0	+6	+1	+8	0.9
2016	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	19	17	4	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	235	316	294	610	59	286	16	11	284	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	503	148	22	1	4	47	93	7	12	6	294	363	366	728	72	353	17	8	331	108	+5	+0	-0	+2	+12	2.0
2019	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	169	147	37	8	0	1	19	29	2	0	1	252	345	327	672	75	305	17	11	310	95	-1	-0	-3	+1	+4	0.0
2019	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	36	33	9	1	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	273	314	394	708	121	286	14	3	309	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	23	16	4	0	1	1	5	1	2	0	0	250	478	562	1.041	312	214	4	22	455	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	322	289	83	12	0	5	25	63	7	8	1	287	358	381	739	93	351	20	8	336	113	+5	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.2
2021	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	19	16	5	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	312	389	375	764	62	385	21	11	332	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	247	228	57	8	0	2	17	50	2	0	0	250	308	311	619	61	312	20	7	285	80	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
2022	31	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	38	35	6	0	0	1	2	8	1	0	0	171	237	257	494	86	192	21	5	230	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	288	83	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2024	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	216	193	42	6	0	2	22	45	0	1	2	218	298	280	577	62	272	21	10	268	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2549	2324	644	102	9	31	174	437	33	41	14	277	336	369	705	92	328	17	7	318	101	+4	+3	+7	+15	+55	8.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	115	108	28	5	1	5	5	22	1	3	1	259	298	463	761	204	282	19	4	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	339	302	80	11	3	4	30	55	3	22	6	265	337	361	698	96	303	16	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	64	60	16	2	0	0	1	14	2	0	1	267	302	300	602	33	348	22	2	275	72	-2	-0	+0	+5	+1	0.4
2014	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	417	382	124	23	4	3	27	80	2	20	4	325	372	429	802	105	386	19	6	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	172	28	6	13	30	96	5	12	0	300	340	438	779	138	336	16	5	343	119	+14	+2	+9	+2	+13	4.1
2016	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	366	333	85	14	2	5	23	53	4	8	5	255	311	354	665	99	290	14	6	297	87	-6	-0	+6	+1	+8	0.9
2016	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	19	18	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	222	263	278	541	56	260	21	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	504	146	22	1	4	46	93	7	12	6	290	357	361	718	71	353	17	8	328	108	+5	+0	-0	+2	+12	2.0
2019	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	169	147	36	8	0	1	19	29	2	0	1	245	339	320	659	75	305	17	11	309	95	-1	-0	-3	+1	+4	0.0
2019	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	36	33	9	1	0	1	1	6	1	0	0	273	314	394	708	121	261	17	3	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	23	18	4	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	222	391	500	891	278	183	4	13	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	322	289	83	12	0	5	25	63	7	8	1	287	358	381	739	93	351	20	8	335	113	+5	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.2
2021	30	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	19	17	5	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	294	333	353	686	59	334	26	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	247	228	57	8	0	2	17	50	2	0	0	250	308	311	619	61	312	20	7	286	80	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
2022	31	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	38	36	5	0	0	1	1	10	1	0	0	139	184	222	406	83	171	26	3	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	291	83	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2024	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	216	201	38	5	0	1	14	51	0	1	2	189	242	229	471	40	246	24	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	454	410	108	16	4	9	35	76	4	25	7	263	327	388	715	124	304	17	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	454	393	119	20	4	9	52	57	4	25	7	303	390	443	833	140	335	13	11	370	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	140	25	4	3	28	94	4	20	5	317	363	412	775	95	390	20	6	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	481	427	138	26	4	3	43	80	4	20	5	323	390	424	814	101	386	17	9	362	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	172	28	6	13	30	96	5	12	0	300	340	438	779	138	341	16	5	343	119	+14	+2	+9	+2	+13	4.1
2015	24	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	169	28	6	12	30	96	5	12	0	295	336	428	763	133	336	16	5	337	119	+14	+2	+9	+2	+13	4.1
2016	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	385	351	89	15	2	5	24	57	4	8	5	254	309	350	659	97	287	15	6	294	85	-7	-0	+6	+1	+8	0.8
2016	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	385	350	90	15	2	5	25	56	4	8	5	257	314	354	668	97	290	15	6	298	85	-7	-0	+6	+1	+8	0.8
2018	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	504	146	22	1	4	46	93	7	12	6	290	357	361	718	71	347	17	8	328	108	+5	+0	-0	+2	+12	2.0
2018	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	503	148	22	1	4	47	93	7	12	6	294	363	366	728	72	353	17	8	331	108	+5	+0	-0	+2	+12	2.0
2019	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	228	198	49	9	1	3	23	36	5	0	1	247	341	348	689	101	286	16	10	310	96	-1	-0	-3	+1	+5	0.2
2019	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	228	196	50	9	1	3	25	35	5	0	1	255	354	357	711	102	294	15	11	325	96	-1	-0	-3	+1	+5	0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	341	306	88	13	0	5	26	68	7	8	1	288	357	379	736	92	353	20	8	333	112	+5	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.3
2021	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	341	305	88	13	0	5	27	67	7	8	1	289	360	380	740	92	353	20	8	336	112	+5	+1	-2	+1	+7	1.3
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	285	264	62	8	0	3	18	60	3	0	0	235	291	299	590	64	294	21	6	271	70	-10	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	285	263	63	8	0	3	19	58	3	0	0	240	298	304	602	65	297	20	7	277	70	-10	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	291	83	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2023	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	288	83	-4	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2024	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	216	201	38	5	0	1	14	51	0	1	2	189	242	229	471	40	247	24	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	216	193	42	6	0	2	22	45	0	1	2	218	298	280	577	62	272	21	10	268	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	454	412	108	16	4	9	35	76	4	25	7	262	327	386	713	124	298	17	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	481	446	140	25	4	3	28	94	4	20	5	314	363	408	771	94	381	20	6	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	612	572	172	28	6	13	30	96	5	12	0	301	340	439	779	138	336	16	5	343	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	385	354	89	15	2	5	24	57	4	8	5	251	309	347	656	96	289	15	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	502	146	22	1	4	46	93	7	12	6	291	357	363	720	72	353	17	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	228	198	49	9	1	3	23	36	5	0	1	247	341	348	689	101	286	16	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	341	305	88	13	0	5	26	68	7	8	1	289	357	380	737	92	350	20	8	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	285	262	62	8	0	3	18	60	3	0	0	237	291	302	593	65	294	21	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	216	200	38	5	0	1	14	51	0	1	2	190	242	230	472	40	246	24	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	216	200	38	5	0	1	14	51	0	1	2	190	242	230	472	40	246	24	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2549	2324	644	102	9	31	174	437	33	41	14	277	336	369	705	92	328	17	7	318	98	+4	+3	+7	+15	+55	8.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	164	26	2	8	44	111	8	10	4	277	335	368	703	91	327	17	7	318	98	+1	+1	+2	+4	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3771	3440	940	149	18	48	256	670	43	87	27	273	331	369	700	96	325	18	7	313	98	+4	+3	+7	+15	+55	8.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	162	26	3	8	44	115	7	15	5	273	331	368	698	94	325	18	7	313	98	+1	+1	+2	+4	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 216 PAwOBA .263 → .219 (−44)K% 20.8% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷1.069	×1.200	—	—	23.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.19%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.36%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.97%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.042	×0.942	21.21%
Doubles /BIP	4.05%	÷0.987	×0.830	×1.042	×0.942	3.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.042	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.35%	÷0.928	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.96%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .263 → .219; ISO .062 → .049; BABIP .272 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 38 PAwOBA .224 → .176 (−47)K% 21.1% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	25.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.26%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.38%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.38%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷0.993	×0.930	—	×0.962	16.69%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.956	×0.830	—	×0.962	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .224 → .176; ISO .086 → .057; BABIP .192 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 19 PAwOBA .341 → .298 (−43)K% 21.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.039	×0.930	—	×0.972	28.99%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.963	×0.830	—	×0.972	6.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.920	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 98, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .341 → .298; ISO .062 → .057; BABIP .385 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 36 PAwOBA .309 → .273 (−36)K% 13.9% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.89%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	16.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.78%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×0.992	1.91%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.59%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.986	×0.930	—	×0.992	23.38%
Doubles /BIP	3.57%	÷1.006	×0.830	—	×0.992	2.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.025	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.128	×0.840	—	×0.992	2.64%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .309 → .273; ISO .121 → .094; BABIP .286 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 23 PAwOBA .445 → .380 (−64)K% 4.3% → 6.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.35%	÷1.033	×1.420	—	—	5.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.74%	÷1.018	×0.750	—	×0.948	15.18%
HBP% /PA	8.70%	—	×0.930	—	×0.948	7.67%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.008	×0.920	—	×0.948	11.53%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.011	×0.960	—	×0.948	0.00%
Triples /BIP	6.67%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.948	5.69%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷0.939	×0.880	—	×0.948	5.93%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .445 → .380; ISO .312 → .298; BABIP .214 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAADurham Bulls · 19 PAwOBA .277 → .232 (−45)K% 15.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.082	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.010	×0.930	—	×1.033	20.37%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.093	×0.830	—	×1.033	5.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.167	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .232; ISO .059 → .046; BABIP .286 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 417 PAwOBA .370 → .348 (−22)K% 15.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.83%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.59%	÷1.075	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.42%
HBP% /PA	0.48%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.42%
Singles /BIP	30.23%	÷1.014	×0.970	×1.024	×1.027	30.44%
Doubles /BIP	7.97%	÷0.983	×0.860	×1.024	×1.027	7.34%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.061	×0.950	×1.024	×1.027	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	1.00%	÷0.918	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.87%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 112, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .370 → .348; ISO .112 → .105; BABIP .391 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAugusta GreenJackets · 339 PAwOBA .361 → .304 (−57)K% 12.1% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.09%	÷1.004	×1.340	—	—	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.98%	÷0.977	×0.660	—	—	8.77%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.770	—	—	0.68%
Singles /BIP	27.24%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.979	—	24.49%
Doubles /BIP	5.69%	÷1.078	×0.820	×0.979	—	4.24%
Triples /BIP	1.22%	÷0.953	×0.940	×0.979	—	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	1.63%	÷0.858	×0.820	—	—	1.55%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 91, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .361 → .304; ISO .111 → .099; BABIP .346 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).