Matt Duffy — OGILVIE

Matt Duffy3B Round Rock Express

Age 35 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA K +3% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.4 · 2026

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .313 / .344

PA240

HR3

K%22

BB%7

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

44→44

PWR

38→38

SPD

50→50

EYE

46↗52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.4	$2M	-$0.5M
Totals		$2M		$2M	-$0.5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	22	A	2 teams	454	413	106	16	4	10	32	75	4	25	7	.257	.316	.387	.704	.131	.292	17	7	.300	88	-6	+2	+0	+2	+13	1.1
2014	23	AA	2 teams	481	444	135	24	4	3	26	97	4	20	5	.304	.348	.396	.744	.092	.377	20	5	.328	109	+5	+2	+0	+5	+14	2.6
2015	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	612	573	165	29	4	13	30	96	5	12	0	.288	.329	.421	.750	.133	.326	16	5	.328	109	+6	+2	+9	+2	+17	3.8
2016	25	MLB	2 teams	385	351	94	16	2	5	24	57	4	8	5	.268	.322	.368	.689	.100	.304	15	6	.301	89	-5	-0	+6	+1	+11	1.3
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	560	503	145	23	1	5	47	93	7	12	6	.288	.357	.368	.725	.080	.344	17	8	.319	102	+1	+0	-0	+2	+16	2.0
2019	28	MLB	3 teams	228	198	50	9	1	3	23	36	5	0	1	.253	.345	.354	.699	.101	.292	16	10	.313	97	-1	-0	-3	+1	+6	0.4
2021	30	MLB	2 teams	341	306	84	13	0	5	26	68	7	8	1	.275	.345	.366	.711	.092	.336	20	8	.320	103	+1	+1	-2	+1	+10	1.1
2022	31	MLB	2 teams	285	264	61	8	0	3	18	60	3	0	0	.231	.288	.295	.583	.064	.289	21	6	.259	56	-14	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.6
2023	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	209	191	47	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	.246	.304	.319	.624	.073	.296	19	6	.280	73	-6	+0	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
2024	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	216	200	39	5	0	2	15	54	0	1	2	.195	.251	.250	.501	.055	.255	25	7	.224	30	-17	-1	+0	+1	+6	-1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	35	MLB	TEX	240	219	56	10	1	3	17	53	2	2	1	.256	.315	.352	.667	.096	.322	22	7	.299	87	-3	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	36	MLB 20%	TEX	174	159	39	7	0	2	12	41	1	2	0	.245	.302	.327	.629	.082	.319	24	7	.290	80	-4	+0	-6	+1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4185	3821	1021	168	17	56	282	769	46	91	28	.267	.325	.364	.689	.097	.320	18	7	.304	91	-43	+7	+1	+18	+119	10.4
/ 162G	—			650	593	159	26	3	9	44	119	7	14	4	.268	.326	.368	.694	.099	.320	18	7	.304	91	-7	+1	+0	+3	+18	1.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	22	A+	San Jose Giants	115	106	31	6	1	5	7	16	1	3	1	.292	.342	.509	.852	.217	.306	14	6	.370	141	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2013	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	339	287	88	14	3	4	45	41	3	22	6	.307	.406	.418	.824	.111	.346	12	13	.370	141	+16	+2	—	—	+10	2.8
2014	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	64	60	16	2	0	0	1	14	2	0	1	.267	.302	.300	.602	.033	.348	22	2	.272	66	-2	-0	+0	+5	+2	0.4
2014	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	417	367	122	24	4	3	42	66	2	20	4	.332	.404	.444	.848	.112	.391	16	10	.376	146	+21	+2	—	—	+12	3.6
2015	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	612	573	169	28	6	12	30	96	5	12	0	.295	.336	.428	.763	.133	.336	16	5	.337	116	+11	+2	+9	+2	+17	4.3
2016	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	366	333	86	14	2	5	23	53	4	8	5	.258	.314	.357	.671	.099	.290	14	6	.299	87	-5	-0	+6	+1	+10	1.2
2016	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	19	17	4	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	.235	.316	.294	.610	.059	.286	16	11	.284	75	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	560	503	148	22	1	4	47	93	7	12	6	.294	.363	.366	.728	.072	.353	17	8	.331	112	+7	+0	-0	+2	+16	2.6
2019	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	169	147	37	8	0	1	19	29	2	0	1	.252	.345	.327	.672	.075	.305	17	11	.310	96	-1	-0	-3	+1	+5	0.2
2019	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	36	33	9	1	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	.273	.314	.394	.708	.121	.286	14	3	.309	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	28	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	23	16	4	0	1	1	5	1	2	0	0	.250	.478	.562	1.041	.312	.214	4	22	.455	206	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2021	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	322	289	83	12	0	5	25	63	7	8	1	.287	.358	.381	.739	.093	.351	20	8	.336	115	+6	+1	-2	+1	+9	1.5
2021	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	19	16	5	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	.312	.389	.375	.764	.062	.385	21	11	.332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	31	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	247	228	57	8	0	2	17	50	2	0	0	.250	.308	.311	.619	.061	.312	20	7	.285	76	-7	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.0
2022	31	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	38	35	6	0	0	1	2	8	1	0	0	.171	.237	.257	.494	.086	.192	21	5	.230	34	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	.251	.309	.325	.634	.073	.303	19	6	.288	78	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2024	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	216	193	42	6	0	2	22	45	0	1	2	.218	.298	.280	.577	.062	.272	21	10	.268	64	-9	-1	—	—	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2549	2324	644	102	9	31	174	437	33	41	14	.277	.336	.369	.705	.092	.328	17	7	.318	101	+4	+3	+7	+15	+72	10.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Duffy (OGILVIE)	35	44	38	50	52	.253/.313/.344	.091	.322	3	2	22%	7%	87	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gerald Laird 2014 · MLB	34	54→47	42→50	45→50	54	.257/.327/.366	.110	.292	8	6	15%	8%	98	+1.6	.234/.303/.331	.097	.283	7	6	19%	8%	79	+0.3	.203/.274/.256	.053	.259	0	0	20%	8%	37	-0.7
✕Iker Franco 2016 · AAA	35	49→47	41→50	47→40	48	.237/.290/.328	.091	.282	10	4	20%	7%	72	-0.2	.248/.302/.355	.107	.306	12	5	22%	7%	85	+0.7	.248/.301/.357	.109	.307	15	0	23%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Ricky Gutierrez 2005 · MLB	35	52→58	39→45	45	50	.248/.305/.330	.082	.276	7	5	13%	6%	79	+0.3	.211/.279/.293	.082	.254	7	8	19%	7%	59	-1.1	.167/.245/.189	.022	.211	0	4	19%	7%	17	-0.9
✕Ramon Martinez 2008 · MLB	35	52	38→45	48→40	54	.245/.304/.324	.079	.267	6	5	11%	8%	77	+0.1	.235/.295/.320	.085	.264	7	6	13%	7%	72	-0.2	.252/.313/.320	.068	.278	4	2	11%	7%	80	+0.1
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	49	41→40	49→50	47	.238/.287/.331	.094	.273	9	9	17%	6%	72	-0.2	.227/.274/.321	.094	.265	9	10	18%	5%	64	-0.8	.232/.273/.270	.038	.262	3	4	12%	5%	48	-0.4
✕Charlie Culberson 2023 · MLB	34	49→52	45	48→50	44	.241/.290/.371	.130	.302	12	13	24%	6%	84	+0.6	.225/.273/.339	.114	.313	12	12	30%	6%	69	-0.4	.176/.203/.217	.041	.286	5	14	39%	3%	7	-0.8
✕Anthony Recker 2018 · MLB	34	42→48	47→50	49→45	44	.210/.284/.344	.134	.285	14	5	30%	8%	76	+0.0	.215/.278/.370	.155	.292	18	5	31%	7%	79	+0.3	.196/.261/.371	.175	.257	22	0	32%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Eddie Pérez 2003 · MLB	35	46	41→50	48→30	45	.223/.272/.329	.106	.267	8	7	20%	6%	66	-0.6	.247/.290/.386	.139	.270	15	3	15%	5%	88	+0.9	.252/.293/.389	.137	.271	15	0	13%	5%	84	+0.3
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	48	39→40	50→55	42	.226/.283/.307	.081	.312	7	12	28%	7%	64	-0.8	.210/.258/.350	.140	.324	17	10	39%	6%	66	-0.6	.140/.178/.291	.151	.208	25	5	47%	4%	14	-0.8
✕Trinidad Robles 2008 · AAA	35	49	44→40	47→45	46	.241/.294/.360	.119	.288	12	10	21%	6%	83	+0.6	.219/.273/.304	.085	.272	7	7	21%	6%	59	-1.1	.220/.277/.248	.028	.287	0	0	21%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Chris Gomez 2006 · MLB	35	56→54	38→45	45→40	56	.263/.324/.346	.083	.283	6	7	9%	8%	92	+1.2	.276/.328/.364	.088	.305	6	5	11%	7%	98	+1.6	.292/.333/.366	.074	.328	4	2	12%	5%	95	+0.5
✕Matt Treanor 2012 · MLB	36	45	41→40	40	56	.216/.313/.306	.090	.257	9	6	19%	11%	79	+0.3	.216/.312/.331	.115	.267	11	8	22%	11%	84	+0.6	.161/.271/.266	.105	.201	10	5	24%	11%	41	-0.5
✕Mike Mordecai 2003 · MLB	35	53	42→45	42→45	49	.256/.313/.369	.113	.303	8	7	18%	7%	92	+1.2	.234/.295/.344	.110	.281	10	10	19%	8%	79	+0.3	.204/.267/.312	.108	.243	12	18	21%	8%	42	-0.4
✕Vinny Rottino 2016 · AAA	36	46→56	42→45	49→55	45	.226/.285/.330	.104	.287	10	5	24%	7%	72	-0.2	.215/.282/.311	.096	.278	9	5	25%	7%	66	-0.6	.184/.268/.246	.063	.238	6	0	24%	8%	41	-1.0
✕Mark Little 2005 · MLB	33	48	42→55	48→55	48	.228/.320/.340	.111	.293	9	10	23%	8%	90	+1.0	.232/.313/.381	.149	.310	16	16	29%	7%	98	+1.6	.224/.312/.363	.139	.309	14	18	30%	6%	90	+0.6
●Jolbert Cabrera 2009 · MLB	36	49→51	45→50	48→50	42	.242/.289/.374	.132	.288	10	8	20%	4%	85	+0.7	.255/.295/.388	.133	.305	12	11	20%	4%	90	+1.0	.267/.303/.405	.139	.314	14	9	19%	4%	97	+1.0
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2013 · AAA	35	53→57	43→45	48→50	47	.260/.307/.370	.110	.300	11	13	17%	6%	91	+1.1	.232/.274/.347	.115	.299	12	16	26%	5%	71	-0.3	.211/.245/.310	.098	.282	11	23	29%	4%	43	-0.6
✕Sergio Guerrero 2010 · AAA	35	53	38→40	48→40	50	.250/.308/.321	.071	.266	6	8	9%	6%	79	+0.3	.244/.308/.330	.086	.274	8	9	14%	6%	82	+0.5	.238/.318/.272	.034	.264	5	0	11%	6%	69	-0.1
✕Carlos Orrantia 2017 · AAA	35	49→55	39→45	43→55	42	.234/.276/.319	.085	.288	7	8	21%	5%	64	-0.8	.233/.270/.319	.086	.297	8	10	24%	5%	61	-1.0	.253/.281/.303	.050	.329	5	9	24%	4%	57	-0.5
✕Issmael Salas 2017 · AAA	35	50→51	44→50	42→50	44	.246/.286/.361	.114	.277	11	7	16%	5%	79	+0.3	.245/.292/.370	.125	.268	13	6	14%	5%	85	+0.7	.249/.297/.371	.121	.266	14	3	12%	5%	85	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)