Matt Duffy — OGILVIE

Matt Duffy3B Round Rock Express

Age 35 R/R 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 255 proj PA

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .312 / .345

PA255

HR3

K%22

BB%7

ISO91

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT47

Whiff%

659.4%

xwOBA

390.296

POWER38

Barrel%

102.7

Avg EV

2387.0

Bat Spd

1767.8

EYE52

Chase%

5430.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

4027.0

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.0	$0.0M	-$0.5M
Totals		$0.6M		$0.0M	-$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	22	A	2 teams	—	454	410	108	15	4	11	35	76	4	25	7	263	327	400	727	137	299	17	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A	2 teams	—	454	393	119	20	4	9	52	57	4	25	7	303	390	443	833	140	335	13	11	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	2 teams	—	481	445	133	25	3	3	25	97	4	20	5	299	342	389	731	90	370	20	5	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	2 teams	—	481	427	138	26	4	3	43	80	4	20	5	323	390	424	814	101	386	17	9	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	176	30	6	13	30	96	5	12	0	307	347	449	796	141	350	16	5	346	123	+16	+2	+9	+2	+17	4.7
2015	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	169	28	6	12	30	96	5	12	0	295	336	428	763	133	336	16	5	337	116	+11	+2	+9	+2	+17	4.3
2016	25	MLB	2 teams	—	385	351	87	15	2	5	24	57	4	8	5	248	303	345	648	97	280	15	6	288	79	-9	-0	+6	+1	+11	0.9
2016	25	MLB	2 teams	—	385	350	90	15	2	5	25	56	4	8	5	257	314	354	668	97	290	15	6	298	86	-6	-0	+6	+1	+11	1.2
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	503	144	23	1	4	47	93	7	12	6	286	355	360	715	74	343	17	8	322	104	+3	+0	-0	+2	+16	2.1
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	503	148	22	1	4	47	93	7	12	6	294	363	366	728	72	353	17	8	331	112	+7	+0	-0	+2	+16	2.6
2019	28	MLB	3 teams	—	228	198	49	9	1	3	23	36	5	0	1	247	341	348	689	101	286	16	10	310	96	-1	-0	-3	+1	+6	0.3
2019	28	MLB	3 teams	—	228	196	50	9	1	3	25	35	5	0	1	255	354	357	711	102	294	15	11	325	107	+2	-0	-3	+1	+6	0.6
2021	30	MLB	2 teams	—	341	306	87	13	0	5	26	68	7	8	1	284	354	376	730	92	349	20	8	328	109	+4	+1	-2	+1	+10	1.4
2021	30	MLB	2 teams	—	341	305	88	13	0	5	27	67	7	8	1	289	360	380	740	92	353	20	8	336	115	+6	+1	-2	+1	+10	1.6
2022	31	MLB	2 teams	—	285	264	62	8	0	3	18	61	3	0	0	235	291	299	590	64	295	21	6	270	65	-11	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.4
2022	31	MLB	2 teams	—	285	263	63	8	0	3	19	58	3	0	0	240	298	304	602	65	297	20	7	277	70	-10	+0	-1	+1	+8	-0.2
2023	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	49	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	257	314	330	644	73	309	19	6	291	81	-4	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2023	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	288	78	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2024	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	216	201	40	5	0	2	14	51	0	1	2	199	251	254	505	55	255	24	6	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	216	193	42	6	0	2	22	45	0	1	2	218	298	280	577	62	272	21	10	268	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	35	MLB	TEX	—	255	233	60	11	1	3	18	57	2	3	1	258	316	352	668	94	325	22	7	299	87	-4	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	36	MLB	TEX	100%	188	172	44	8	1	2	13	43	1	1	0	256	312	349	661	93	316	23	7	286	77	-5	+0	-7	+1	+5	-0.5
2027	36	MLB	TEX	100%	188	172	44	8	1	2	13	43	1	1	0	256	312	349	661	93	318	23	7	281	74	-6	+0	-7	+1	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2737	2496	688	110	10	33	187	480	34	42	14	276	335	367	702	92	328	18	7	315	99	-2	+3	+1	+15	+78	9.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	163	26	2	8	44	114	8	10	3	275	333	366	699	91	327	18	7	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+4	+18	2.3
Career	—			—	4214	3847	1039	170	19	56	285	774	46	91	28	270	328	368	696	98	323	18	7	309	94	-27	+7	+1	+18	+119	12.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	160	26	3	9	44	119	7	14	4	270	328	369	697	99	322	18	7	309	94	-4	+1	+0	+3	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2013	22	A+	San Jose Giants	—	115	106	31	6	1	5	7	16	1	3	1	292	342	509	852	217	306	14	6	370	141	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2013	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	339	287	88	14	3	4	45	41	3	22	6	307	406	418	824	111	346	12	13	370	141	+16	+2	—	—	+10	2.8
2014	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	64	60	16	2	0	0	1	14	2	0	1	267	302	300	602	33	348	22	2	272	66	-2	-0	+0	+5	+2	0.4
2014	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	417	367	122	24	4	3	42	66	2	20	4	332	404	444	848	112	391	16	10	376	146	+21	+2	—	—	+12	3.6
2015	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	612	573	169	28	6	12	30	96	5	12	0	295	336	428	763	133	336	16	5	337	116	+11	+2	+9	+2	+17	4.3
2016	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	366	333	86	14	2	5	23	53	4	8	5	258	314	357	671	99	290	14	6	299	87	-5	-0	+6	+1	+10	1.2
2016	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	19	17	4	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	235	316	294	610	59	286	16	11	284	75	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2018	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	560	503	148	22	1	4	47	93	7	12	6	294	363	366	728	72	353	17	8	331	112	+7	+0	-0	+2	+16	2.6
2019	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	169	147	37	8	0	1	19	29	2	0	1	252	345	327	672	75	305	17	11	310	96	-1	-0	-3	+1	+5	0.2
2019	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	36	33	9	1	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	273	314	394	708	121	286	14	3	309	95	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	28	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	23	16	4	0	1	1	5	1	2	0	0	250	478	562	1.041	312	214	4	22	455	206	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2021	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	322	289	83	12	0	5	25	63	7	8	1	287	358	381	739	93	351	20	8	336	115	+6	+1	-2	+1	+9	1.5
2021	30	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	19	16	5	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	312	389	375	764	62	385	21	11	332	112	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	31	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	247	228	57	8	0	2	17	50	2	0	0	250	308	311	619	61	312	20	7	285	76	-7	+0	-1	+1	+7	-0.0
2022	31	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	38	35	6	0	0	1	2	8	1	0	0	171	237	257	494	86	192	21	5	230	34	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	209	191	48	8	0	2	12	39	4	1	0	251	309	325	634	73	303	19	6	288	78	-5	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.1
2024	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	216	193	42	6	0	2	22	45	0	1	2	218	298	280	577	62	272	21	10	268	64	-9	-1	—	—	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2549	2324	644	102	9	31	174	437	33	41	14	277	336	369	705	92	328	17	7	318	101	+4	+3	+7	+15	+72	10.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Maicer Izturislast yr '13 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,312 PA	10	3,312	39	92	269	331	372	+15	+23	13.1	13.4
	/162	664	8	18	269	331	372	+3.0	+4.6	2.6	pk7: 14
#2Joe Paniklast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,099 PA	8	3,099	42	22	264	328	372	+11	+17	11.0	11.4
#2Joe Paniklast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,099 PA	/162	664	9	5	264	328	372	+2.4	+3.7	2.4	pk7: 12
#3Jeff Keppingerlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,156 PA	9	3,156	45	12	282	329	384	+17	-9	9.9	10.1
	/162	664	9	3	282	329	384	+3.5	-2.0	2.1	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	2,762	33	43	276	331	368	+6	+10	8.2	8.3
	/162	664	8	10	276	331	368	+1.4	+2.4	2.0	pk7: 8
#4Brock Holtlast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,661 PA	10	2,661	25	41	262	332	362	+5	+3	7.4	7.8
	/162	664	6	10	262	332	362	+1.2	+0.6	1.9	pk7: 8
#5Mike Fontenotlast yr '12 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,581 PA	6	1,581	27	17	265	332	402	+7	+7	7.0	7.0
	/162	664	11	7	265	332	402	+3.1	+3.0	2.9	pk7: 7
#6Jose Vizcainolast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,971 PA	7	1,971	15	15	269	315	355	+3	+2	2.8	2.8
	/162	664	5	5	269	315	355	+0.9	+0.6	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Duffy (OGILVIE)	35	47	38	50	52	255/312/345	90	325	3	3	22%	7%	87	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gerald Laird 2014 · MLB	34	55→47	42→50	44→50	54	262/333/373	110	299	8	6	15%	9%	102	+1.9	234/302/334	100	284	8	6	19%	8%	79	+0.3	204/275/257	53	260	0	0	20%	8%	40	-0.7
✕Matt Treanor 2010 · MLB	34	50	43→40	48→40	51	242/318/352	109	293	11	6	20%	9%	92	+1.2	214/306/314	100	256	10	6	19%	10%	77	+0.1	196/300/280	84	236	9	4	19%	11%	64	-0.3
✕Royce Clayton 2006 · MLB	36	55→57	40→45	50	49	260/315/360	100	312	6	11	18%	7%	91	+1.1	247/300/340	93	309	5	12	20%	7%	79	+0.3	241/294/324	82	304	2	13	20%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Chris Gomez 2006 · MLB	35	56→54	38→45	45→40	56	265/328/345	81	284	5	6	9%	8%	93	+1.3	276/327/365	89	305	6	5	11%	7%	97	+1.5	292/333/366	74	328	4	2	12%	5%	95	+0.5
✕Ramon Martinez 2008 · MLB	35	51→52	38→45	49→40	54	240/300/318	78	261	6	5	11%	8%	74	-0.1	234/294/321	87	264	7	7	14%	7%	72	-0.2	252/313/320	68	278	4	2	11%	7%	80	+0.1
✕Ricky Gutierrez 2005 · MLB	35	51→58	39→45	47→45	50	242/301/323	81	270	7	6	13%	7%	76	+0.1	211/279/296	85	255	7	8	19%	7%	60	-1.0	167/245/189	22	211	0	4	19%	7%	17	-0.9
✕Charlie Culberson 2023 · MLB	34	48→49	45	47→50	44	238/287/366	127	298	12	13	24%	6%	81	+0.4	226/275/342	116	315	12	12	30%	6%	70	-0.3	182/208/225	43	295	5	14	39%	3%	11	-0.8
✕Alcides Escobar 2022 · MLB	35	52→62	44→45	51→55	43	251/298/374	123	299	10	7	20%	5%	88	+0.9	239/290/353	114	299	10	9	22%	5%	79	+0.3	218/260/282	65	294	0	5	24%	4%	45	-0.5
✕Iker Franco 2016 · AAA	35	51→47	41→50	47→40	47	245/297/336	90	291	9	4	19%	7%	77	+0.1	255/307/363	108	314	12	5	22%	7%	89	+0.9	262/313/368	106	323	14	0	23%	7%	91	+0.3
✕Mike Redmond 2005 · MLB	34	54	39→40	45→30	50	253/317/346	93	279	6	4	12%	6%	89	+1.0	279/327/368	89	306	5	4	10%	5%	98	+1.6	308/351/376	68	336	2	0	9%	4%	105	+0.7
✕Doug Bernier 2015 · MLB	35	49→54	39→40	45	44	233/284/325	92	296	6	7	23%	6%	69	-0.4	235/288/325	90	299	9	6	23%	6%	71	-0.3	231/287/310	79	296	9	4	24%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Daniel Hinojosa 2019 · AAA	35	46	39→40	49→55	42	221/276/304	83	305	7	11	29%	6%	60	-1.0	209/256/348	139	330	17	10	40%	6%	64	-0.8	135/173/276	142	208	24	5	49%	4%	8	-0.8
✕Dan Wilson 2004 · MLB	35	52	43→45	46→40	44	256/293/366	110	297	10	3	18%	5%	83	+0.6	239/292/329	90	285	8	4	18%	7%	73	-0.1	241/298/298	57	286	3	0	16%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Gary Bennett 2007 · MLB	35	46	42→40	43→40	52	225/291/327	101	256	10	4	17%	8%	73	-0.1	236/291/356	120	254	13	7	13%	7%	80	+0.4	242/283/323	81	259	7	4	9%	5%	63	-0.2
✕Fernando Rios 2013 · AAA	34	47	41→40	49→50	46	230/279/324	95	270	9	10	19%	6%	67	-0.5	228/275/324	96	269	9	10	18%	5%	65	-0.7	234/274/269	35	267	3	4	13%	4%	48	-0.4
✕Yuniesky Betancourt 2017 · AAA	35	46→56	43→50	50	43	227/273/340	113	269	11	12	20%	5%	69	-0.4	229/260/312	83	254	7	7	13%	4%	55	-1.4	237/256/276	39	257	3	0	9%	2%	43	-0.8
✕Eddie Pérez 2003 · MLB	35	46	41→50	48→30	45	222/271/326	104	268	7	6	20%	6%	64	-0.8	246/290/387	141	269	15	3	15%	5%	88	+0.9	252/293/389	137	271	15	0	13%	5%	84	+0.3
✕Ronny Paulino 2015 · MLB	34	48→58	43→50	48→40	43	235/279/342	107	296	10	7	24%	6%	71	-0.3	255/301/381	126	290	15	6	17%	6%	91	+1.1	264/309/382	118	295	15	3	16%	6%	93	+0.7
✕Erick Almonte 2011 · AAA	33	53→48	39→40	51→45	45	249/299/335	85	318	6	7	23%	6%	78	+0.2	234/288/324	90	302	7	6	23%	7%	70	-0.3	252/313/358	106	303	11	3	20%	8%	85	+0.4
✕Julio Lugo 2011 · MLB	35	53→62	38→45	49→60	51	251/315/330	80	302	4	15	18%	8%	83	+0.6	228/288/330	102	276	9	11	20%	7%	72	-0.2	176/230/240	64	214	4	5	19%	7%	21	-0.7