Andrew Aplin
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AAASEA | 280 | .246/.368/.397 | 6 | 5 | 77 | — | .210/.307/.333 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA/AASEA | 333 | .247/.345/.369 | 5 | 2 | 63 | — | .206/.276/.305 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAAARI | 90 | .205/.303/.295 | 2 | 2 | 24 | — | .148/.225/.198 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 108 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 260 | 287 | 423 | 710 | 163 | 282 | 15 | 4 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 598 | 499 | 139 | 32 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 63 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 279 | 385 | 431 | 815 | 152 | 296 | 11 | 14 | 359 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 116 | 96 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 260 | 360 | 312 | 673 | 52 | 294 | 13 | 13 | 301 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 434 | 356 | 95 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 65 | 56 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 267 | 383 | 354 | 737 | 87 | 298 | 13 | 15 | 333 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 80 | 67 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 269 | 388 | 358 | 746 | 90 | 354 | 22 | 15 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 285 | 233 | 64 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 41 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 275 | 392 | 348 | 740 | 73 | 326 | 14 | 16 | 336 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 134 | 105 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 343 | 465 | 448 | 913 | 105 | 383 | 10 | 18 | 398 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 40 | 36 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 278 | 333 | 444 | 778 | 167 | 310 | 18 | 8 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 447 | 399 | 89 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 98 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 223 | 300 | 318 | 619 | 95 | 284 | 22 | 9 | 281 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 51 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 114 | 220 | 114 | 334 | 132 | 14 | 12 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 280 | 232 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 53 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 246 | 368 | 397 | 765 | 151 | 291 | 19 | 15 | 344 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 269 | 234 | 62 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 47 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 265 | 356 | 402 | 758 | 137 | 310 | 17 | 12 | 340 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 64 | 53 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 302 | 226 | 528 | 57 | 205 | 14 | 14 | 255 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 90 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 303 | 295 | 598 | 90 | 246 | 21 | 11 | 277 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 108 | 105 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 210 | 231 | 343 | 574 | 133 | 239 | 20 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 598 | 526 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 91 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 226 | 304 | 338 | 643 | 112 | 245 | 15 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 116 | 100 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 240 | 315 | 290 | 605 | 50 | 266 | 16 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 434 | 378 | 94 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 69 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 249 | 329 | 323 | 651 | 74 | 280 | 16 | 10 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 285 | 244 | 66 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 52 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 270 | 360 | 336 | 696 | 66 | 324 | 18 | 12 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 134 | 112 | 37 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 330 | 419 | 446 | 865 | 116 | 357 | 12 | 13 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 447 | 411 | 76 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 127 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 185 | 244 | 255 | 499 | 71 | 254 | 28 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 280 | 243 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 210 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 123 | 256 | 24 | 11 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 269 | 245 | 54 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 59 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 285 | 331 | 615 | 110 | 273 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 64 | 56 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 238 | 196 | 435 | 54 | 173 | 17 | 9 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 90 | 81 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 225 | 198 | 422 | 49 | 198 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 108 | 105 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 210 | 231 | 343 | 574 | 133 | 237 | 20 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ RAW | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 108 | 104 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 260 | 287 | 423 | 710 | 163 | 282 | 15 | 4 | 312 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 598 | 526 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 91 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 226 | 304 | 338 | 643 | 112 | 254 | 15 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 598 | 499 | 139 | 32 | 7 | 10 | 84 | 63 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 279 | 385 | 431 | 815 | 152 | 296 | 11 | 14 | 359 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 630 | 549 | 135 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 62 | 101 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 246 | 326 | 315 | 641 | 69 | 286 | 16 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 630 | 519 | 138 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 89 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 266 | 379 | 347 | 726 | 81 | 303 | 14 | 15 | 329 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 459 | 390 | 112 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 75 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 287 | 377 | 364 | 741 | 77 | 348 | 16 | 12 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 459 | 374 | 110 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 72 | 61 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 294 | 408 | 385 | 793 | 91 | 342 | 13 | 16 | 354 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 458 | 85 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 141 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 186 | 243 | 253 | 497 | 68 | 258 | 28 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 498 | 443 | 94 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 105 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 212 | 292 | 298 | 590 | 86 | 266 | 21 | 10 | 270 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 280 | 243 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 210 | 307 | 333 | 640 | 123 | 264 | 24 | 11 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 280 | 232 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 53 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 246 | 368 | 397 | 765 | 151 | 291 | 19 | 15 | 344 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 301 | 63 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 100 | 258 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 333 | 287 | 71 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 56 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 345 | 369 | 715 | 122 | 289 | 17 | 12 | 324 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 90 | 81 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 148 | 225 | 198 | 422 | 49 | 200 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 90 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 303 | 295 | 598 | 90 | 246 | 21 | 11 | 277 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 108 | 104 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 231 | 346 | 578 | 135 | 239 | 20 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 598 | 534 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 91 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 223 | 304 | 333 | 638 | 110 | 245 | 15 | 10 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 630 | 560 | 135 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 62 | 101 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 241 | 326 | 309 | 635 | 68 | 277 | 16 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 459 | 400 | 112 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 75 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 280 | 377 | 355 | 732 | 75 | 335 | 16 | 12 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 498 | 460 | 85 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 141 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 185 | 243 | 252 | 496 | 67 | 254 | 28 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 280 | 244 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 209 | 307 | 332 | 639 | 123 | 256 | 24 | 11 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 301 | 63 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 70 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 279 | 309 | 588 | 100 | 254 | 21 | 8 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 90 | 82 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 146 | 225 | 195 | 420 | 49 | 198 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2996 | 2653 | 599 | 95 | 21 | 33 | 275 | 591 | 14 | 120 | 50 | 226 | 302 | 315 | 617 | 89 | 275 | 20 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -100 | +4 | +0 | +11 | +65 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 131 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 128 | 3 | 26 | 11 | 227 | 304 | 318 | 622 | 90 | 277 | 20 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -22 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAReno Aces · 90 PAwOBA .270 → .203 (−67)K% 21.1% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.11% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 7.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.03% | ÷1.035 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 18.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.025 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 1.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.077 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 2.43% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .203; ISO .090 → .062; BABIP .246 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 269 PAwOBA .334 → .278 (−56)K% 17.5% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.47% | ÷1.031 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.103 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.39% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | ×0.980 | ×1.003 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.885 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×1.003 | 8.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 77, 3B 80, K 106, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .334 → .278; ISO .137 → .121; BABIP .310 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 64 PAwOBA .249 → .197 (−52)K% 14.1% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.06% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.06% | ÷1.097 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 11.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.920 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 85, K 104, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .249 → .197; ISO .057 → .051; BABIP .205 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAATacoma Rainiers · 280 PAwOBA .339 → .282 (−57)K% 18.9% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.93% | ÷1.028 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 11.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷0.978 | ×0.900 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 18.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.988 | ×0.810 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.966 | ×1.018 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.35% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.76% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .339 → .282; ISO .151 → .125; BABIP .291 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 447 PAwOBA .273 → .223 (−51)K% 21.9% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.92% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.98% | ÷1.061 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.66% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .273 → .223; ISO .095 → .070; BABIP .284 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 285 PAwOBA .328 → .303 (−25)K% 14.4% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.39% | ÷1.020 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷0.987 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 11.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.60% | ÷0.972 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 28.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.65% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 3.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.021 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 0.80% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .303; ISO .073 → .063; BABIP .326 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 134 PAwOBA .395 → .365 (−30)K% 9.7% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.70% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.91% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 12.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.52% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 28.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.963 | ×0.840 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 2.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 4.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .395 → .365; ISO .105 → .116; BABIP .383 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 434 PAwOBA .325 → .297 (−28)K% 12.9% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.90% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.82% | ÷0.991 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.67% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 24.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.67% | ÷0.890 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×1.027 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .325 → .297; ISO .087 → .085; BABIP .298 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .