Cade Marlowe
LF Salt Lake Bees| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAASEA | 411 | .235/.347/.395 | 13 | 43 | 57 | — | .187/.268/.292 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/ROKSEA | 198 | .315/.415/.473 | 4 | 13 | 92 | — | .247/.321/.345 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAALAA | 520 | .315/.391/.505 | 12 | 33 | 97 | — | .259/.315/.400 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBLAA | 16 | .233/.297/.367 | 0 | 1 | 87 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBLAA | 69 | .229/.293/.359 | 1 | 3 | 84 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 325 | 286 | 74 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 36 | 91 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 259 | 346 | 566 | 912 | 308 | 307 | 28 | 11 | 392 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 160 | 133 | 40 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 40 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 301 | 411 | 556 | 968 | 256 | 382 | 25 | 15 | 416 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 92 | 73 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 233 | 385 | 301 | 686 | 68 | 340 | 25 | 18 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 60 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 250 | 350 | 519 | 869 | 269 | 385 | 38 | 12 | 379 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 518 | 447 | 130 | 18 | 4 | 20 | 55 | 133 | 12 | 36 | 10 | 291 | 383 | 483 | 866 | 192 | 369 | 26 | 11 | 382 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 100 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 330 | 420 | 750 | 182 | 346 | 33 | 12 | 335 | 115 | +2 | +0 | +2 | -5 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 379 | 334 | 86 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 39 | 99 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 257 | 340 | 443 | 784 | 186 | 330 | 26 | 10 | 345 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 411 | 344 | 81 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 55 | 133 | 4 | 43 | 7 | 235 | 347 | 395 | 743 | 160 | 332 | 32 | 13 | 330 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 182 | 152 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 43 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 316 | 412 | 474 | 886 | 158 | 400 | 24 | 13 | 386 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 16 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 308 | 438 | 462 | 899 | 154 | 500 | 31 | 19 | 404 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 520 | 457 | 144 | 31 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 115 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 315 | 391 | 505 | 897 | 190 | 396 | 22 | 10 | 391 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 100 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 330 | 420 | 750 | 182 | 346 | 33 | 12 | 335 | 113 | +1 | +0 | +2 | -5 | +2 | 0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 325 | 300 | 54 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 22 | 125 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 180 | 241 | 387 | 627 | 207 | 245 | 38 | 7 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 160 | 142 | 35 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 53 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 246 | 323 | 458 | 781 | 211 | 335 | 33 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 60 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 200 | 267 | 400 | 667 | 200 | 364 | 45 | 7 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 518 | 463 | 116 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 39 | 160 | 12 | 36 | 10 | 251 | 325 | 406 | 731 | 156 | 335 | 31 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 100 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 330 | 420 | 750 | 182 | 346 | 33 | 12 | 338 | 115 | +2 | +0 | +2 | -5 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 379 | 346 | 76 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 116 | 3 | 29 | 4 | 220 | 282 | 358 | 640 | 139 | 301 | 31 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 411 | 363 | 68 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 159 | 4 | 43 | 7 | 187 | 268 | 292 | 560 | 105 | 283 | 39 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 182 | 160 | 41 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 50 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 256 | 328 | 356 | 684 | 100 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 16 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 250 | 214 | 464 | 71 | 366 | 44 | 12 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 520 | 475 | 123 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 138 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 259 | 315 | 400 | 715 | 141 | 342 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 577 | 524 | 106 | 20 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 212 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 202 | 271 | 410 | 681 | 208 | 284 | 37 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 577 | 492 | 131 | 29 | 10 | 26 | 77 | 154 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 266 | 370 | 524 | 894 | 258 | 333 | 27 | 13 | 388 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 578 | 518 | 127 | 18 | 4 | 19 | 43 | 187 | 13 | 42 | 10 | 245 | 319 | 405 | 724 | 160 | 342 | 32 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 578 | 499 | 143 | 21 | 5 | 23 | 62 | 156 | 13 | 42 | 10 | 287 | 380 | 487 | 867 | 200 | 370 | 27 | 11 | 382 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 434 | 97 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 149 | 3 | 33 | 6 | 224 | 292 | 371 | 663 | 147 | 313 | 31 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 479 | 422 | 107 | 20 | 8 | 14 | 51 | 132 | 3 | 33 | 6 | 254 | 338 | 438 | 777 | 185 | 333 | 28 | 11 | 343 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 411 | 363 | 68 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 159 | 4 | 43 | 7 | 187 | 268 | 292 | 560 | 105 | 296 | 39 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 411 | 344 | 81 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 55 | 133 | 4 | 43 | 7 | 235 | 347 | 395 | 743 | 160 | 332 | 32 | 13 | 330 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 174 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 57 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 247 | 321 | 345 | 666 | 98 | 342 | 29 | 9 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 198 | 165 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 48 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 315 | 415 | 473 | 887 | 158 | 407 | 24 | 13 | 387 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 520 | 475 | 123 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 138 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 259 | 315 | 400 | 715 | 141 | 346 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Salt Lake Bees | — | 520 | 457 | 144 | 31 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 115 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 315 | 391 | 505 | 897 | 190 | 396 | 22 | 10 | 391 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 577 | 523 | 106 | 20 | 10 | 23 | 45 | 212 | 4 | 30 | 9 | 203 | 271 | 411 | 682 | 208 | 275 | 37 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 578 | 517 | 127 | 18 | 4 | 19 | 43 | 187 | 13 | 42 | 10 | 246 | 319 | 406 | 725 | 161 | 338 | 32 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 434 | 97 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 149 | 3 | 33 | 6 | 224 | 292 | 371 | 663 | 147 | 310 | 31 | 8 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 411 | 368 | 68 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 159 | 4 | 43 | 7 | 185 | 268 | 288 | 556 | 103 | 283 | 39 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 177 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 57 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 243 | 321 | 339 | 660 | 96 | 336 | 29 | 9 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 520 | 476 | 123 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 138 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 258 | 315 | 399 | 714 | 141 | 342 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 411 | 368 | 68 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 159 | 4 | 43 | 7 | 185 | 268 | 288 | 556 | 103 | 283 | 39 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 198 | 177 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 57 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 243 | 321 | 339 | 660 | 96 | 336 | 29 | 9 | 305 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 520 | 476 | 123 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 138 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 258 | 315 | 399 | 714 | 141 | 342 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAA | 10% | 380 | 345 | 82 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 106 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 234 | 298 | 369 | 667 | 135 | 313 | 28 | 8 | 297 | 87 | -6 | +3 | +1 | -4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAA | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 297 | 367 | 663 | 134 | 310 | 25 | 6 | 296 | 87 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | LAA | 27% | 254 | 231 | 54 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 71 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 231 | 294 | 361 | 656 | 131 | 309 | 28 | 7 | 293 | 84 | -5 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | LAA | 27% | 69 | 64 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 229 | 293 | 359 | 652 | 130 | 306 | 28 | 7 | 291 | 84 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 169 | 152 | 36 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 52 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 237 | 314 | 395 | 708 | 158 | 333 | 31 | 10 | 317 | 86 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -6 | +4 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 138 | 23 | 12 | 15 | 65 | 200 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 236 | 312 | 393 | 705 | 157 | 332 | 31 | 10 | 317 | 86 | +1 | +2 | +6 | -23 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3172 | 2860 | 651 | 114 | 40 | 78 | 247 | 1016 | 32 | 212 | 42 | 228 | 296 | 377 | 674 | 150 | 320 | 32 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -6 | +2 | +0 | -10 | +11 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 133 | 23 | 8 | 16 | 51 | 208 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 227 | 297 | 375 | 672 | 148 | 318 | 32 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +3 | +1 | -12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 520 PAwOBA .383 → .311 (−71)K% 22.1% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.978 | ×0.982 | 23.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×0.982 | 7.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×0.982 | 2.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .383 → .311; ISO .190 → .149; BABIP .396 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 182 PAwOBA .387 → .310 (−77)K% 23.6% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.63% | ÷1.035 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.64% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.36% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 25.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.01% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 8.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.67% | ÷1.204 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .387 → .310; ISO .158 → .114; BABIP .400 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Mariners · 16 PAwOBA .395 → .243 (−152)K% 31.2% → 45.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 10.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 20.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 16.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.886 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 88, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .395 → .243; ISO .154 → .088; BABIP .500 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 411 PAwOBA .325 → .253 (−72)K% 32.4% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.36% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.65% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.54% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 23.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.79% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 2.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.16% | ÷1.142 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.79% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .325 → .253; ISO .160 → .113; BABIP .332 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 379 PAwOBA .339 → .278 (−61)K% 26.1% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.12% | ÷1.024 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.13% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | 6.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.55% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | 2.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.68% | ÷1.157 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.88% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .339 → .278; ISO .186 → .142; BABIP .330 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 518 PAwOBA .375 → .319 (−56)K% 25.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.68% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.62% | ÷0.976 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.32% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.03% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 26.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷0.987 | ×0.840 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.37% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.60% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .375 → .319; ISO .192 → .164; BABIP .369 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 60 PAwOBA .364 → .294 (−70)K% 38.3% → 45.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.33% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.69% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷0.839 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 10.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 3.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.34% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 6.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .294; ISO .269 → .203; BABIP .385 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 325 PAwOBA .382 → .266 (−116)K% 28.0% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷0.985 | ×1.350 | — | — | 38.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.08% | ÷1.125 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.90% | ÷0.978 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 13.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 6.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.929 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.26% | ÷1.078 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 7.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 86, K 97, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .382 → .266; ISO .308 → .212; BABIP .307 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).