Andrew Stevenson

CF Durham Bulls

Age 33 L/L 5'11" / 191 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	28	AAAWSH	604	.279/.346/.457	16	39	86	—	.244/.295/.383
2023	29	AAAMIN	470	.317/.394/.522	16	44	95	—	.260/.320/.401
2023	29	MLBMIN	40	.189/.250/.216	0	4	36	0.1
2025	31	AAATB	202	.294/.368/.467	5	18	90	—	.262/.313/.374
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBTB	18	.245/.307/.380	0	1	93	0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBTB	8	.237/.298/.360	0	0	85	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2023

Speed90

Avg EV55

xwOBA40

Bat Spd33

Barrel%28

CompsJace Peterson (age 33) · Eddy Alvarez (age 34) · Dustin Martin (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .307 / .380

PA18

HR0

K%28

BB%6

BABIP314

ISO59

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2020-2023

CONTACT55

xAVG

300.235

POWER50

Barrel%

285.3

Avg EV

5589.4

Bat Spd

3369.5

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$3M
Totals		$3M		$0.2M	-$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	153	137	39	3	2	1	8	16	4	16	4	285	342	358	700	73	311	10	5	311	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	280	256	63	11	2	2	20	51	1	12	5	246	303	328	631	82	299	18	7	284	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	300	273	83	12	8	1	24	44	0	27	9	304	360	418	778	114	358	15	8	344	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	96	85	30	4	2	2	10	17	0	9	2	353	421	518	939	165	418	18	10	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	66	57	9	2	0	0	7	20	0	1	0	158	250	193	443	35	243	30	11	209	27	-6	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.8
2017	23	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	331	309	78	7	4	2	19	72	1	10	1	252	298	320	618	68	323	22	6	279	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	91	80	28	5	1	0	11	19	0	1	3	350	429	438	866	88	459	21	12	391	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	86	75	19	2	0	1	6	23	1	1	1	253	317	320	637	67	333	27	7	280	75	-3	-0	-1	-4	+2	-0.6
2018	24	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	331	293	69	10	1	6	31	75	5	12	6	235	319	338	657	102	296	23	9	300	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	37	30	11	1	1	0	6	11	1	0	1	367	486	467	953	100	579	30	16	431	184	+4	-0	+0	-5	+1	-0.1
2019	25	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	333	302	101	17	8	6	24	76	1	10	4	334	385	503	889	169	428	23	7	385	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	88	84	21	4	0	1	3	24	1	3	0	250	284	333	617	83	339	27	3	279	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	47	41	15	7	1	2	5	11	1	2	0	366	447	732	1.179	366	464	23	11	500	228	+7	+0	+0	-1	+1	0.8
2021	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	213	192	44	6	0	5	13	61	5	1	1	229	295	339	634	109	307	29	6	285	74	-7	-0	-2	+1	+5	-0.3
2021	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	58	55	24	4	0	2	3	11	0	2	0	436	466	618	1.084	182	524	19	5	477	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	604	545	152	31	9	16	46	136	10	39	7	279	346	457	803	178	343	23	8	354	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	40	37	7	1	0	0	2	8	1	4	1	189	250	216	466	27	241	20	5	221	36	-3	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.1
2023	29	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	470	416	132	23	7	16	42	97	11	44	5	317	394	522	916	204	383	21	9	403	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	202	180	53	14	1	5	20	45	1	18	6	294	368	467	835	172	366	22	10	369	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	489	432	105	19	2	8	39	134	9	9	4	243	319	352	671	109	330	27	8	300	89	-6	+0	-0	-12	+11	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	153	140	37	3	2	1	5	22	4	16	4	264	309	336	644	71	287	14	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	280	261	63	11	2	1	15	64	1	12	5	241	285	310	596	69	305	23	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	300	283	79	10	7	1	14	64	0	27	9	279	313	375	688	95	349	21	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	66	57	9	2	0	0	7	20	0	1	0	158	250	193	443	35	243	30	11	208	27	-6	+0	+1	-5	+1	-0.8
2017	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	331	315	76	6	4	2	13	86	1	10	1	241	274	305	578	63	319	26	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	91	84	28	5	1	0	7	23	0	1	3	333	385	417	801	83	453	25	8	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	86	75	19	2	0	1	6	23	1	1	1	253	317	320	637	67	333	27	7	279	75	-3	-0	-1	-4	+2	-0.6
2018	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	331	301	62	9	1	4	23	86	5	12	6	206	274	282	556	76	274	26	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	37	30	11	1	1	0	6	11	1	0	1	367	486	467	953	100	579	30	16	440	184	+4	-0	+0	-5	+1	-0.1
2019	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	333	308	87	14	5	5	18	103	1	10	4	282	324	409	733	127	394	31	5	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	88	85	19	3	0	1	2	29	1	3	0	224	250	294	544	71	322	33	2	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	47	41	15	7	1	2	5	11	1	2	0	366	447	732	1.179	366	464	23	11	504	228	+7	+0	+0	-1	+1	0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	213	194	44	6	0	5	11	61	5	1	1	227	286	335	621	108	307	29	5	278	74	-7	-0	-2	+1	+5	-0.3
2021	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	58	56	20	3	0	1	2	13	0	2	0	357	379	464	844	107	475	22	3	389	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	604	561	137	28	10	10	30	156	10	39	7	244	295	383	678	139	317	26	5	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	40	37	7	1	0	0	2	8	1	4	1	189	250	216	466	27	241	20	5	221	36	-3	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.1
2023	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	470	431	112	14	7	11	27	119	11	44	5	260	320	401	721	142	331	25	6	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	202	187	49	13	1	2	13	51	1	18	6	262	313	374	688	112	341	25	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	153	140	37	3	2	1	5	22	4	16	4	264	309	336	644	71	303	14	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	153	137	39	3	2	1	8	16	4	16	4	285	342	358	700	73	311	10	5	311	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	676	635	164	24	10	2	33	149	1	48	16	258	296	337	633	79	333	22	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	676	614	176	27	12	5	54	112	1	48	16	287	345	394	739	107	342	17	8	329	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	488	455	112	12	5	2	28	129	1	12	4	246	291	308	599	62	340	26	6	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	488	446	115	14	5	2	37	111	1	12	4	258	316	325	641	67	339	23	8	291	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	417	376	81	11	1	5	29	109	6	13	7	215	282	290	572	74	286	26	7	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	417	368	88	12	1	7	37	98	6	13	7	239	319	334	653	95	303	24	9	296	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	458	423	117	18	7	5	26	143	3	13	5	277	323	388	711	111	404	31	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	458	416	133	22	9	7	33	111	3	13	5	320	374	466	840	147	420	24	7	368	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	47	41	15	7	1	2	5	11	1	2	0	366	447	732	1.179	366	464	23	11	504	228	+7	+0	+0	-1	+1	0.8
2020	26	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	47	41	15	7	1	2	5	11	1	2	0	366	447	732	1.179	366	464	23	11	500	228	+7	+0	+0	-1	+1	0.8
2021	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	271	250	64	9	0	6	13	74	5	3	1	256	306	364	670	108	339	27	5	302	90	-3	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.2
2021	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	271	247	68	10	0	7	16	72	5	3	1	275	332	401	733	126	361	27	6	326	90	-3	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.2
2022	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	604	561	137	28	10	10	30	156	10	39	7	244	295	383	678	139	319	26	5	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	604	545	152	31	9	16	46	136	10	39	7	279	346	457	803	178	343	23	8	354	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	510	468	119	15	7	11	29	127	12	48	6	254	314	387	701	132	327	25	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	510	453	139	24	7	16	44	105	12	48	6	307	383	497	880	190	370	21	9	389	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	202	187	49	13	1	2	13	51	1	18	6	262	313	374	688	112	348	25	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	202	180	53	14	1	5	20	45	1	18	6	294	368	467	835	172	366	22	10	369	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	153	143	37	3	2	1	5	22	4	16	4	259	309	329	637	70	287	14	3	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	676	637	164	24	10	2	33	149	1	48	16	257	296	336	632	78	328	22	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	488	456	112	12	5	2	28	129	1	12	4	246	291	307	598	61	334	26	6	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	417	379	81	11	1	5	29	109	6	13	7	214	282	288	570	74	286	26	7	259	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	458	426	117	18	7	5	26	143	3	13	5	275	323	385	708	110	395	31	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	47	41	15	7	1	2	5	11	1	2	0	366	447	732	1.179	366	464	23	11	504	228	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	271	251	64	9	0	6	13	74	5	3	1	255	306	363	669	108	343	27	5	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	604	559	137	28	10	10	30	156	10	39	7	245	295	385	679	140	317	26	5	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	510	464	119	15	7	11	29	127	12	48	6	256	314	390	704	134	324	25	6	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	202	186	49	13	1	2	13	51	1	18	6	263	313	376	690	113	341	25	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	202	186	49	13	1	2	13	51	1	18	6	263	313	376	690	113	341	25	6	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	TB	10%	292	266	65	13	2	7	21	75	3	9	3	244	306	380	686	137	311	26	7	306	93	-2	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	TB	10%	18	17	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	245	307	380	687	134	314	28	6	306	93	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TB	6%	154	141	34	7	1	3	11	40	1	3	1	235	296	361	657	126	304	26	7	294	85	-3	+0	-5	+1	+3	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	TB	6%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	237	298	360	658	124	307	25	12	294	85	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	497	439	106	19	2	8	40	136	9	9	4	241	318	349	666	107	328	27	8	300	82	-6	+0	-0	-12	+11	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	139	25	3	10	52	178	12	12	5	242	318	348	667	106	330	27	8	300	82	-8	+0	-0	-16	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4164	3844	969	155	46	53	235	1058	47	221	59	252	303	358	661	106	333	25	6	290	82	-10	+1	-5	-11	+18	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	151	24	7	8	37	165	7	34	9	252	303	355	658	103	333	25	6	290	82	-8	+1	-4	-9	+14	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 202 PAwOBA .361 → .301 (−60)K% 22.3% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.28%	÷1.057	×1.200	—	—	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.90%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.38%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.45%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷0.956	×0.930	×1.039	×0.962	23.77%
Doubles /BIP	10.37%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.039	×0.962	9.15%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.039	×0.962	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.380	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 91, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .361 → .301; ISO .172 → .123; BABIP .366 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 470 PAwOBA .392 → .309 (−84)K% 20.6% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.64%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.94%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.68%
HBP% /PA	2.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	2.16%
Singles /BIP	26.96%	÷0.964	×0.930	×0.997	×0.982	25.45%
Doubles /BIP	7.21%	÷1.341	×0.830	×0.997	×0.982	4.37%
Triples /BIP	2.19%	÷0.977	×0.970	×0.997	×0.982	2.13%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .392 → .309; ISO .204 → .142; BABIP .383 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 604 PAwOBA .345 → .296 (−49)K% 22.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.52%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	25.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.12%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.01%
HBP% /PA	1.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.54%
Singles /BIP	23.47%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.021	×0.992	21.88%
Doubles /BIP	7.58%	÷0.930	×0.830	×1.021	×0.992	6.85%
Triples /BIP	2.20%	÷0.913	×0.970	×1.021	×0.992	2.37%
Home runs /BIP	3.91%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .345 → .296; ISO .178 → .143; BABIP .343 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 58 PAwOBA .464 → .389 (−75)K% 19.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.97%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.17%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.53%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.91%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×1.003	38.38%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.005	×0.830	—	×1.003	7.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.30%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .464 → .389; ISO .182 → .135; BABIP .524 → .475. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 333 PAwOBA .377 → .313 (−64)K% 22.8% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.82%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	30.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.21%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.34%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.30%
Singles /BIP	30.97%	÷0.959	×0.900	×0.997	×1.033	29.92%
Doubles /BIP	7.52%	÷0.976	×0.810	×0.997	×1.033	6.43%
Triples /BIP	3.54%	÷1.140	×0.810	×0.997	×1.033	2.59%
Home runs /BIP	2.65%	÷0.962	×0.780	—	×1.033	2.22%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 128, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .377 → .313; ISO .169 → .128; BABIP .428 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 88 PAwOBA .271 → .228 (−43)K% 27.3% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷0.996	×1.220	—	—	33.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.41%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×0.998	2.26%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.96%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.991	×0.970	—	×0.998	26.05%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.985	×0.860	—	×0.998	5.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷1.111	×0.780	—	×0.998	1.17%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .271 → .228; ISO .083 → .062; BABIP .339 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 331 PAwOBA .292 → .254 (−38)K% 22.7% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.66%	÷1.044	×1.200	—	—	26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.06%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.85%
HBP% /PA	1.51%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.49%
Singles /BIP	23.85%	÷1.044	×0.930	×0.995	×1.048	22.16%
Doubles /BIP	4.59%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.995	×1.048	4.25%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.995	×1.048	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷1.205	×0.840	—	×1.048	2.01%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .292 → .254; ISO .102 → .084; BABIP .296 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 331 PAwOBA .272 → .248 (−24)K% 21.8% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.75%	÷1.005	×1.200	—	—	25.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.74%	÷1.033	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.03%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.30%
Singles /BIP	27.43%	÷0.997	×0.930	×1.031	×1.050	27.67%
Doubles /BIP	2.95%	÷1.081	×0.830	×1.031	×1.050	2.45%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.031	×1.050	1.54%
Home runs /BIP	0.84%	÷0.980	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.76%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .272 → .248; ISO .068 → .058; BABIP .323 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Milt Cuyler'90-'98 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	10	77	233*	299*	338*	+1	+4	0.6	0.9
/162	664	4	33	+0.6	+1.9	0.3	pk7: 1
#4Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Rusty Torres'71-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	35	13	213*	304*	371*	-8	-6	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	15	6	-3.3	-2.7	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Luis Melendez'70-'77 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	9	18	245*	296*	347*	-5	+9	-0.1	0.0
/162	664	4	7	-2.2	+3.7	-0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.6	392	7	4	221	286	309	+1	-0	-0.2	-0.2
/162	664	11	6	+2.2	-0.1	-0.3	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrew Stevenson (OGILVIE)	33	55	50	60	45	242/303/377	135	311	4	6	26%	7%	93	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jace Peterson 2023 · MLB	33	48→57	48→50	56→55	53	237/323/383	145	302	15	18	26%	11%	101	+1.4	217/300/331	114	276	12	17	24%	10%	81	-0.1	203/293/293	90	259	9	21	23%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Eddy Alvarez 2024 · MLB	34	48→54	46→50	55	46	235/317/370	136	311	13	20	27%	8%	97	+1.1	202/279/335	133	265	14	20	28%	7%	75	-0.5	177/258/306	129	228	15	22	29%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Dustin Martin 2017 · AAA	33	54→58	47→50	57→55	46	266/321/409	143	327	15	27	23%	7%	106	+1.8	233/301/375	142	301	15	24	26%	8%	91	+0.7	206/284/344	138	266	16	26	28%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Danny Richar 2016 · AAA	33	56→60	42→55	58→50	46	266/315/376	109	326	8	21	20%	6%	95	+1.0	237/287/338	101	298	8	14	22%	6%	76	-0.4	199/241/252	53	256	0	3	21%	5%	38	-0.8
✕Chris Dickerson 2015 · MLB	33	49→56	46→50	53→60	46	237/308/373	136	324	13	19	30%	8%	93	+0.8	232/299/354	122	323	11	18	29%	8%	85	+0.2	213/289/313	100	302	9	17	30%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Brian Bogusevic 2017 · MLB	33	50→54	45	53→55	43	248/295/367	120	307	13	18	24%	6%	86	+0.3	238/282/377	139	289	16	11	23%	5%	84	+0.2	236/274/376	140	280	16	6	22%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Reggie Taylor 2009 · AAA	32	51→56	47→50	54→55	47	254/301/390	136	291	15	23	19%	6%	95	+0.9	222/268/349	127	270	13	13	23%	6%	73	-0.6	188/221/310	122	224	12	3	23%	4%	43	-0.9
✕Rafael Ortega 2023 · MLB	32	50→55	48→55	48→55	54	248/326/390	142	292	16	18	20%	10%	103	+1.6	217/303/341	124	268	13	21	22%	11%	84	+0.2	200/296/311	111	248	11	26	23%	12%	74	-0.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	45→55	45→50	54→55	42	226/273/344	118	287	13	21	26%	6%	73	-0.6	206/254/330	124	263	14	13	27%	6%	63	-1.3	165/208/277	113	202	13	9	26%	5%	32	-1.8
✕Will Venable 2016 · MLB	33	49→55	46→55	55→60	47	240/300/368	128	299	13	20	24%	7%	88	+0.5	215/275/324	109	273	11	12	24%	7%	70	-0.9	181/234/264	83	231	8	8	25%	5%	39	-1.8
●Michael Tucker 2004 · MLB	33	50→51	50→55	50→55	52	250/319/413	164	291	16	17	20%	9%	106	+1.8	242/325/387	145	284	13	10	19%	11%	103	+1.5	233/326/364	131	273	11	9	18%	11%	98	+0.8
✕Garrett Stubbs 2024 · MLB	31	47	45	54→50	51	229/307/352	123	286	12	11	24%	9%	88	+0.4	218/290/318	100	282	10	12	25%	8%	74	-0.5	204/276/286	82	265	9	12	25%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Tim Torres 2017 · AAA	33	51→49	44→45	55	45	246/304/370	124	320	11	20	26%	7%	91	+0.6	242/309/370	128	322	13	18	27%	9%	93	+0.8	238/321/351	114	321	12	20	28%	11%	96	+0.3
✕Grégor Blanco 2017 · MLB	33	53→62	41→45	53→60	53	252/321/364	112	298	7	17	18%	9%	95	+1.0	226/294/336	110	291	9	19	24%	9%	79	-0.2	209/277/318	109	271	11	19	26%	8%	68	-0.6
✕Kolten Wong 2024 · MLB	33	47→57	48→50	49→55	50	236/312/381	145	271	15	14	19%	8%	97	+1.1	224/292/346	122	271	13	11	22%	7%	81	-0.1	199/253/270	71	252	6	8	23%	5%	47	-0.5
✕David Newhan 2006 · MLB	32	52→62	45→50	56→55	49	255/314/384	129	293	13	17	18%	7%	98	+1.2	245/300/382	137	285	14	16	19%	7%	92	+0.7	247/295/388	141	289	15	16	20%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Alejandro De Aza 2016 · MLB	32	52→61	46→50	51→55	47	254/316/399	145	315	12	15	22%	7%	102	+1.5	229/297/351	122	282	11	10	22%	8%	84	+0.1	229/290/342	113	276	9	10	20%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Nate McLouth 2014 · MLB	32	49→57	47→60	56→60	53	242/313/384	141	270	14	23	16%	9%	97	+1.1	229/306/354	125	270	12	18	19%	9%	88	+0.5	168/271/231	63	216	4	15	22%	9%	50	-0.6
✕Darnell McDonald 2011 · MLB	32	51→55	49→55	56→55	44	252/299/413	161	309	15	15	23%	6%	99	+1.2	224/285/362	138	271	14	10	22%	7%	82	+0.0	198/263/310	112	238	12	9	21%	7%	61	-0.7

Andrew Stevenson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps