Bryce Johnson — OGILVIE

Bryce JohnsonCF San Diego Padres

Age 30 S/R 5'11" / 190 lbs MLB HR +13%BB +8% Svc 1.564 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.8 · 2026

wRC+†vL 6987vR 114

AVG/OBP/SLG.235 / .313 / .346

PA334

HR5

SB18

K%27

BB%8

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

35→35

SPD

60→60

EYE

51↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 1.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-2	$0.6M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$5M	+$4M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	San Jose Giants	511	455	99	15	6	1	40	165	7	31	4	.218	.291	.284	.574	.066	.337	32	8	.251	50	-29	+5	+0	+2	+14	-0.8
2019	23	A+	2 teams	540	488	98	19	5	5	45	169	4	26	15	.201	.274	.291	.565	.090	.293	31	8	.252	51	-30	-1	+0	+2	+15	-1.4
2021	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	407	366	85	13	5	7	35	134	4	30	4	.232	.306	.352	.659	.120	.345	33	9	.288	79	-10	+4	+0	+1	+12	0.8
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	371	334	77	8	4	4	25	124	7	31	5	.231	.298	.314	.612	.084	.349	33	7	.269	64	-15	+4	+0	+1	+11	0.1
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	346	309	71	12	3	7	29	98	4	21	4	.230	.304	.356	.660	.126	.312	28	8	.288	78	-8	+3	+0	+1	+10	0.6
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	392	336	78	14	4	3	37	99	11	21	4	.232	.328	.324	.653	.092	.316	25	9	.290	80	-9	+3	+1	-4	+11	0.2
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	284	251	65	14	1	3	20	84	5	15	3	.259	.326	.359	.685	.100	.378	30	7	.293	83	-6	+2	+0	-3	+8	0.2
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	18	16	4	2	0	0	1	7	0	3	1	.250	.294	.375	.669	.125	.444	39	6	.279	72	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
ROS	30	MLB	SD	316	281	66	12	2	5	26	86	6	15	3	.235	.313	.345	.658	.110	.319	27	8	.301	88	-4	+2	+1	+1	+9	0.9
TOT	30	MLB	SD	334	297	70	14	2	5	27	93	6	18	4	.236	.312	.347	.659	.111	.323	28	8	.300	87	-5	+2	+1	+1	+9	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB	SD	319	284	67	12	2	5	26	88	6	13	3	.236	.313	.345	.658	.109	.319	28	8	.297	86	-5	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.4
2028	32	MLB	SD	300	266	61	11	2	4	25	84	6	11	2	.229	.310	.331	.641	.102	.318	28	8	.293	82	-6	+1	-3	+1	+8	0.2
2029	33	MLB	SD	270	241	55	10	2	3	22	78	5	9	2	.228	.306	.324	.630	.095	.317	29	8	.287	78	-7	+1	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2030	34	MLB	SD	227	202	45	8	1	3	19	67	4	7	1	.223	.302	.317	.619	.094	.316	30	8	.281	73	-7	+1	-4	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4283	3813	867	148	37	50	349	1276	69	230	50	.227	.304	.325	.629	.098	.326	30	8	.279	72	-136	+26	-10	+6	+121	0.7
/ 162G	—			650	579	132	22	6	8	53	194	10	35	8	.228	.304	.328	.632	.100	.326	30	8	.279	72	-21	+4	-2	+1	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	San Jose Giants	511	441	110	18	6	1	54	116	7	31	4	.249	.341	.324	.665	.075	.334	23	11	.303	90	-6	+5	—	—	+14	1.3
2019	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	236	210	51	14	1	3	24	55	1	8	7	.243	.323	.362	.685	.119	.314	23	10	.310	95	-1	-1	—	—	+7	0.4
2019	23	A+	San Jose Giants	304	260	69	9	6	2	39	71	3	18	8	.265	.368	.369	.737	.104	.354	23	13	.335	115	+5	+0	—	—	+9	1.4
2021	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	407	353	101	15	5	9	48	108	4	30	4	.286	.378	.433	.811	.147	.388	27	12	.363	136	+16	+4	—	—	+12	3.3
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	19	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	.111	.158	.111	.269	.000	.182	37	5	.132	-41	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	352	307	89	11	4	5	33	90	7	31	5	.290	.372	.401	.772	.111	.391	26	9	.345	123	+9	+4	—	—	+10	2.4
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	48	43	7	1	0	1	4	15	0	3	0	.163	.234	.256	.490	.093	.214	31	8	.223	28	-4	+1	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2023	27	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	298	257	72	13	4	8	34	70	4	18	4	.280	.373	.455	.828	.175	.358	23	11	.366	138	+13	+2	—	—	+8	2.4
2024	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	73	63	13	2	0	0	7	12	0	1	1	.206	.286	.238	.524	.032	.255	16	10	.238	41	-5	-0	+1	-4	+2	-0.6
2024	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	319	260	75	15	5	4	43	65	11	20	3	.288	.411	.431	.842	.142	.366	20	13	.376	146	+17	+3	—	—	+9	2.9
2025	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	84	76	26	4	0	1	3	19	2	4	1	.342	.383	.434	.817	.092	.446	23	4	.355	130	+3	+0	+0	-3	+2	0.3
2025	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	200	167	45	12	1	3	25	49	3	11	2	.269	.374	.407	.782	.138	.365	24	12	.346	123	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			224	200	48	7	0	2	15	53	2	8	2	.240	.300	.305	.605	.065	.315	24	7	.270	64	-9	+1	+2	-5	+6	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Johnson (OGILVIE)	30	60	35	60	50	.235/.313/.346	.111	.319	5	16	27%	8%	88	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→56	44→45	60→65	45	.243/.333/.365	.121	.319	11	34	25%	7%	102	+1.8	.225/.314/.348	.123	.296	10	36	26%	7%	90	+1.0	.214/.305/.335	.121	.286	9	40	26%	7%	80	+0.1
✕Shawn O'Malley 2017 · MLB	29	53→58	40	56→60	47	.253/.313/.354	.101	.313	6	21	20%	7%	89	+0.9	.232/.288/.332	.100	.297	8	13	23%	7%	72	-0.2	.219/.270/.301	.082	.281	6	6	23%	6%	54	-0.4
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2015 · MLB	30	51→61	38→40	60→65	47	.243/.296/.329	.086	.304	5	36	21%	7%	75	-0.0	.249/.293/.326	.077	.311	4	29	20%	6%	72	-0.2	.246/.288/.332	.086	.306	5	33	20%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Trevor Crowe 2014 · MLB	30	51→55	39→45	53→55	48	.240/.296/.327	.087	.293	6	24	20%	7%	75	-0.0	.230/.274/.328	.098	.275	8	18	19%	6%	66	-0.6	.216/.247/.308	.092	.250	8	15	17%	4%	46	-0.9
✕Roman Quinn 2023 · MLB	30	49→56	46→45	55→65	45	.228/.311/.365	.137	.337	13	25	33%	9%	92	+1.2	.205/.298/.324	.119	.352	11	25	40%	10%	77	+0.1	.129/.246/.199	.070	.270	4	46	47%	11%	23	-1.1
✕Travis Jankowski 2021 · MLB	30	52→61	38→40	53→65	50	.247/.315/.324	.078	.315	6	26	22%	9%	82	+0.5	.237/.328/.316	.079	.301	5	26	20%	12%	86	+0.8	.242/.344/.306	.063	.304	2	35	18%	13%	84	+0.3
✕Antoan Richardson 2014 · AAA	30	56→60	36→40	60	54	.257/.345/.329	.073	.338	2	28	22%	10%	96	+1.5	.239/.316/.321	.082	.319	4	33	24%	8%	82	+0.5	.254/.338/.331	.077	.328	4	49	22%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Damian Jackson 2004 · MLB	30	52→54	40→45	55	49	.246/.308/.345	.099	.302	6	29	20%	8%	85	+0.7	.241/.313/.361	.120	.283	11	22	18%	9%	92	+1.2	.241/.328/.365	.124	.282	13	20	19%	10%	96	+0.6
✕Elliot Johnson 2014 · MLB	30	45→54	42→50	58→60	45	.222/.278/.326	.104	.286	10	31	25%	7%	67	-0.5	.208/.267/.316	.108	.276	9	18	26%	7%	60	-1.0	.189/.251/.297	.108	.255	7	12	27%	7%	47	-0.9
✕Eugenio Velez 2013 · MLB	31	50→60	43→50	55→65	43	.243/.289/.358	.115	.302	9	29	23%	6%	79	+0.3	.259/.308/.373	.114	.322	9	30	21%	6%	92	+1.2	.274/.321/.377	.103	.336	8	34	20%	6%	94	+0.9
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	52→59	45	60	47	.254/.322/.384	.130	.317	12	32	23%	8%	101	+1.8	.245/.333/.363	.118	.314	11	30	23%	10%	101	+1.8	.259/.328/.356	.097	.323	8	39	21%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2017 · MLB	30	52→62	42→45	53→60	48	.251/.310/.351	.100	.305	9	24	20%	7%	87	+0.8	.240/.303/.349	.109	.304	12	18	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.244/.306/.344	.100	.310	11	24	24%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Alexi Casilla 2014 · MLB	30	49→59	39→40	60	50	.233/.288/.330	.097	.268	5	29	15%	7%	72	-0.2	.238/.281/.321	.083	.281	6	19	17%	5%	66	-0.6	.243/.279/.309	.067	.289	4	14	17%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Billy Hamilton 2021 · MLB	30	47→57	38→40	59→70	49	.223/.289/.303	.080	.290	5	34	24%	8%	66	-0.6	.197/.252/.293	.096	.291	8	34	33%	7%	47	-1.9	.159/.211/.231	.072	.255	4	47	37%	6%	12	-1.0
✕Elian Herrera 2014 · MLB	29	50→55	39→40	53→60	46	.238/.298/.325	.087	.310	6	19	24%	7%	75	-0.0	.244/.289/.340	.096	.313	7	13	23%	6%	75	-0.0	.247/.290/.343	.096	.318	7	10	23%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Delino DeShields 2022 · MLB	29	48→53	40→45	57→65	52	.227/.308/.324	.097	.300	8	26	25%	10%	80	+0.4	.209/.302/.281	.072	.304	5	29	29%	11%	67	-0.5	.199/.301/.240	.040	.320	1	35	33%	12%	54	-0.7
✕Roger Cedeno 2004 · MLB	29	56→60	41→45	57→65	50	.267/.320/.372	.104	.308	8	28	16%	7%	96	+1.5	.245/.303/.352	.107	.288	9	13	17%	8%	84	+0.6	.260/.323/.368	.108	.313	8	13	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Rich Thompson 2009 · AAA	30	53→61	40→45	59→65	46	.249/.305/.350	.101	.304	5	24	20%	6%	85	+0.7	.250/.298/.349	.099	.305	5	30	19%	5%	81	+0.4	.266/.316/.370	.104	.324	4	44	18%	5%	90	+0.8
✕Chris Dickerson 2012 · MLB	30	52→55	41→50	58→60	48	.244/.315/.345	.101	.338	7	28	28%	9%	88	+0.9	.243/.313/.378	.135	.337	12	24	29%	9%	95	+1.4	.246/.321/.390	.144	.339	13	22	29%	9%	100	+1.0
✕Mike McCoy 2011 · MLB	30	54→58	40	58→60	54	.254/.322/.346	.093	.301	6	29	17%	9%	91	+1.1	.234/.315/.314	.080	.283	6	30	18%	10%	80	+0.4	.225/.312/.292	.066	.274	5	33	18%	11%	69	-0.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)