Bryce Johnson

RF El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 31 S/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +5% Svc 2.023 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAASD	319	.288/.411/.431	4	20	95	—	.247/.341/.360
2024	28	MLBSD	73	.206/.286/.238	0	1	50	-0.6
2025	29	AAASD	200	.269/.374/.407	3	11	72	—	.227/.303/.330
2025	29	MLBSD	84	.342/.383/.434	1	4	130	0.3
2026	30	AAASD	255	.282/.383/.413	2	20	78	—	.237/.310/.335
2026	30	MLBSD	49	.178/.229/.222	0	5	29	-0.6
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBSD	24	.228/.301/.337	0	1	84	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	32	MLBSD	71	.223/.295/.325	1	3	79	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.023First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$0.2M2029Ext$1M2030Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed68

xwOBA24

Bat Spd24

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

CompsGilberto Mejia (age 31) · Greg Allen (age 30) · Emilio Bonifácio (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8484vR 84

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .301 / .337

PA24

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP300

ISO45

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

460.248

POWER35

Barrel%

102.0

Avg EV

1085.4

Bat Spd

2468.6

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

6828.2

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 157 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

113

▶▶R

wOBA

276

335

▶▶R

ISO

033

088

▶▶R

BABIP

297

405

▶▶R

18.1%

21.2%

◀L

BB%

11.1%

2.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.023 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	San Jose Giants	—	511	441	110	18	6	1	54	116	7	31	4	249	341	324	665	75	334	23	11	303	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	236	210	51	14	1	3	24	55	1	8	7	243	323	362	685	119	314	23	10	310	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	San Jose Giants	—	304	260	69	9	6	2	39	71	3	18	8	265	368	369	737	104	354	23	13	335	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	407	353	101	15	5	9	48	108	4	30	4	286	378	433	811	147	388	27	12	363	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	19	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	111	158	111	269		182	37	5	132	-24	-3	+0	+0	+1	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	352	307	89	11	4	5	33	90	7	31	5	290	372	401	772	111	391	26	9	345	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	48	43	7	1	0	1	4	15	0	3	0	163	234	256	490	93	214	31	8	223	40	-3	+1	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2023	27	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	298	257	72	13	4	8	34	70	4	18	4	280	373	455	828	175	358	23	11	366	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	73	63	13	2	0	0	7	12	0	1	1	206	286	238	524	32	255	16	10	238	50	-4	-0	+1	-4	+2	-0.6
2024	28	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	319	260	75	15	5	4	43	65	11	20	3	288	411	431	842	142	366	20	13	376	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	84	76	26	4	0	1	3	19	2	4	1	342	383	434	817	92	446	23	4	355	130	+3	+0	+0	-3	+2	0.3
2025	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	200	167	45	12	1	3	25	49	3	11	2	269	374	407	782	138	365	24	12	346	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	49	45	8	2	0	0	3	18	0	5	1	178	229	222	451	44	296	37	6	206	29	-4	+1	-0	-3	+1	-0.6
2026	30	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	255	213	60	18	2	2	33	59	2	20	2	282	383	413	796	131	379	23	13	351	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	273	245	56	9	0	2	18	71	2	13	3	229	287	290	577	61	312	26	7	258	61	-13	+1	+2	-8	+6	-1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	511	456	98	15	5	1	39	162	7	31	4	215	287	276	563	61	316	32	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	236	218	45	12	1	3	16	69	1	8	7	206	264	312	576	106	284	29	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	304	270	53	7	4	2	29	98	3	18	8	196	281	274	556	78	293	32	10	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	407	366	91	14	5	6	35	125	4	30	4	249	321	363	684	115	358	31	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	19	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	111	158	111	269		182	37	5	133	-24	-3	+0	+0	+1	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	352	317	80	9	4	3	23	109	7	31	5	252	317	334	651	82	364	31	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	48	43	7	1	0	1	4	15	0	3	0	163	234	256	490	93	214	31	8	227	40	-3	+1	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2023	27	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	298	267	66	11	4	5	24	77	4	18	4	247	319	375	693	127	329	26	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	73	63	13	2	0	0	7	12	0	1	1	206	286	238	524	32	255	16	10	242	50	-4	-0	+1	-4	+2	-0.6
2024	28	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	319	275	68	12	5	3	28	81	11	20	3	247	341	360	701	113	328	25	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	84	76	26	4	0	1	3	19	2	4	1	342	383	434	817	92	446	23	4	360	130	+3	+0	+0	-3	+2	0.3
2025	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	200	176	40	10	1	2	16	60	3	11	2	227	303	330	632	102	320	30	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	49	45	8	2	0	0	3	18	0	5	1	178	229	222	451	44	296	37	6	210	29	-4	+1	-0	-3	+1	-0.6
2026	30	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	255	224	53	15	2	1	22	71	2	20	2	237	310	335	645	98	326	28	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	511	456	98	15	5	1	39	162	7	31	4	215	287	276	563	61	329	32	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	San Jose Giants	—	511	441	110	18	6	1	54	116	7	31	4	249	341	324	665	75	334	23	11	303	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	540	488	98	19	5	4	45	166	4	26	15	201	274	285	559	84	293	31	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	540	470	120	23	7	5	63	126	4	26	15	255	348	366	714	111	336	23	12	324	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	407	366	91	14	5	6	35	125	4	30	4	249	321	363	684	115	360	31	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	—	407	353	101	15	5	9	48	108	4	30	4	286	378	433	811	147	388	27	12	363	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	335	82	9	4	3	24	116	7	31	5	245	309	322	631	78	361	31	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	371	325	91	11	4	5	34	97	7	31	5	280	361	385	745	105	381	26	9	335	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	346	310	74	12	4	7	28	92	4	21	4	239	310	371	681	132	316	27	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	346	300	79	14	4	9	38	85	4	21	4	263	354	427	780	163	338	25	11	346	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	338	81	14	5	3	35	93	11	21	4	240	331	337	668	98	318	24	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	323	88	17	5	4	50	77	11	21	4	272	388	393	781	121	343	20	13	350	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	284	252	67	14	1	3	19	79	5	15	3	266	330	365	695	99	376	28	7	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	284	243	71	16	1	4	28	68	5	15	3	292	377	416	792	123	392	24	10	348	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	304	269	61	17	2	1	25	89	2	25	3	227	297	316	613	89	333	29	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	304	258	68	20	2	2	36	77	2	25	3	264	358	380	738	116	367	25	12	327	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	511	460	98	15	5	1	39	162	7	31	4	213	287	274	561	61	316	32	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	540	486	98	19	5	4	45	166	4	26	15	202	274	286	560	84	289	31	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	407	365	91	14	5	6	35	125	4	30	4	249	321	364	685	115	358	31	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	337	82	9	4	3	24	116	7	31	5	243	309	320	629	77	355	31	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	346	311	74	12	4	7	28	92	4	21	4	238	310	370	680	132	313	27	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	343	81	14	5	3	35	93	11	21	4	236	331	332	663	96	314	24	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	284	258	67	14	1	3	19	79	5	15	3	260	330	357	686	97	357	28	7	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	304	274	61	17	2	1	25	89	2	25	3	223	297	310	608	88	321	29	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	343	81	14	5	3	35	93	11	21	4	236	331	332	663	96	314	24	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	284	258	67	14	1	3	19	79	5	15	3	260	330	357	686	97	357	28	7	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	304	274	61	17	2	1	25	89	2	25	3	223	297	310	608	88	321	29	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SD	10%	346	311	72	15	2	5	28	89	4	19	4	232	305	344	649	111	307	26	8	293	84	-6	+2	+0	-4	+7	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	SD	10%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	228	301	337	639	109	300	25	8	289	84	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SD	33%	216	194	44	9	1	3	17	57	3	9	2	227	299	331	630	104	303	26	8	285	79	-5	+1	-3	-2	+5	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	SD	33%	71	64	14	3	0	1	6	19	1	3	1	223	295	325	620	102	297	27	8	281	79	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	344	309	70	12	0	3	24	90	3	16	4	227	289	294	583	68	309	26	7	263	76	-14	+2	+1	-9	+7	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	133	23	0	6	45	170	6	30	8	228	290	298	588	70	310	26	7	263	76	-27	+3	+2	-16	+14	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3606	3219	744	133	33	34	286	1040	50	222	47	231	304	325	628	94	329	29	8	280	76	-22	+4	-1	-13	+16	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	134	24	6	6	52	187	9	40	8	231	304	324	628	93	328	29	8	280	76	-20	+3	-1	-11	+14	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 255 PAwOBA .343 → .283 (−60)K% 23.1% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.14%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.94%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.59%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.71%
Singles /BIP	24.68%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.997	×0.962	22.01%
Doubles /BIP	11.69%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.997	×0.962	9.30%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.997	×0.962	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	1.30%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	0.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .343 → .283; ISO .131 → .108; BABIP .379 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 200 PAwOBA .337 → .274 (−63)K% 24.5% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.50%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	30.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.96%
HBP% /PA	1.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.37%
Singles /BIP	24.58%	÷0.999	×0.930	×1.022	×0.972	22.71%
Doubles /BIP	10.17%	÷1.042	×0.830	×1.022	×0.972	8.04%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.022	×0.972	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	2.54%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .337 → .274; ISO .138 → .107; BABIP .365 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 319 PAwOBA .370 → .309 (−61)K% 20.4% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.38%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	25.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.48%	÷1.026	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.90%
HBP% /PA	3.45%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	3.18%
Singles /BIP	26.15%	÷1.025	×0.930	×1.036	×0.982	24.15%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.053	×0.830	×1.036	×0.982	6.17%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷0.996	×0.970	×1.036	×0.982	2.54%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷1.078	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 99, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .370 → .309; ISO .142 → .116; BABIP .366 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 298 PAwOBA .356 → .307 (−50)K% 23.5% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.49%	÷1.087	×1.200	—	—	25.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.41%	÷0.981	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.96%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.25%
Singles /BIP	25.13%	÷0.992	×0.930	×1.021	×0.992	23.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.95%	÷0.992	×0.830	×1.021	×0.992	5.89%
Triples /BIP	2.14%	÷0.956	×0.970	×1.021	×0.992	2.20%
Home runs /BIP	4.28%	÷1.057	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .356 → .307; ISO .175 → .141; BABIP .358 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 352 PAwOBA .340 → .292 (−48)K% 25.6% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.57%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	31.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.003	6.59%
HBP% /PA	1.99%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.87%
Singles /BIP	31.80%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.981	×1.003	30.05%
Doubles /BIP	5.07%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.981	×1.003	4.28%
Triples /BIP	1.84%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.981	×1.003	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	2.30%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .340 → .292; ISO .111 → .091; BABIP .391 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 407 PAwOBA .354 → .304 (−50)K% 26.5% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.54%	÷1.034	×1.200	—	—	30.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.55%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.49%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.94%
Singles /BIP	29.39%	÷1.049	×0.930	×1.020	×1.018	27.05%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷0.916	×0.830	×1.020	×1.018	5.76%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.020	×1.018	2.17%
Home runs /BIP	3.67%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.63%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .354 → .304; ISO .147 → .124; BABIP .388 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+San Jose Giants · 304 PAwOBA .329 → .252 (−78)K% 23.4% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.36%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	32.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.83%	÷0.936	×0.710	—	×0.988	9.61%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.77%
Singles /BIP	27.51%	÷1.017	×0.910	×0.950	×0.988	23.10%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.973	×0.820	×0.950	×0.988	3.77%
Triples /BIP	3.17%	÷0.903	×0.760	×0.950	×0.988	2.51%
Home runs /BIP	1.06%	÷0.947	×0.920	—	×0.988	1.02%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 81, K 95, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .252; ISO .104 → .080; BABIP .354 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 236 PAwOBA .302 → .253 (−49)K% 23.3% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.31%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	29.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.75%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.83%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.36%
Singles /BIP	21.29%	÷1.020	×0.970	×0.950	×1.012	19.46%
Doubles /BIP	9.03%	÷0.916	×0.860	×0.950	×1.012	8.16%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷1.147	×0.950	×0.950	×1.012	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷0.890	×0.780	—	×1.012	1.72%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 83, 3B 129, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .302 → .253; ISO .119 → .103; BABIP .314 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Rich Amaral'91-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,022 PA	3.0	2,022	11	112	264*	329*	345*	-10	+10	3.2	3.5
/162	664	4	37	-3.3	+3.2	1.1	pk7: 4
#3So Taguchi'02-'09 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,524 PA	2.3	1,524	19	39	268*	320*	372*	-8	-8	0.9	1.2
/162	664	8	17	-3.7	-3.3	0.4	pk7: 1
#4Alex Presley'10-'17 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,502 PA	2.3	1,502	29	30	265*	309*	397*	-12	-10	0.6	0.9
/162	664	13	13	-5.3	-4.6	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.4	251	2	9	257	315	336	-2	+1	0.3	0.3
/162	664	6	24	-4.4	+2.0	0.7	pk7: 0
#6Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bryce Johnson (OGILVIE)	31	60	35	60	50	230/303/341	110	307	3	13	26%	8%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Mejia 2014 · AAA	31	53→58	39→40	62→65	49	253/314/347	94	308	5	38	19%	8%	88	+0.5	252/302/344	92	306	5	39	18%	5%	83	+0.1	247/296/330	83	295	3	37	16%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→57	43→45	60→65	45	240/329/356	116	317	10	34	26%	7%	99	+1.2	217/305/332	115	286	9	35	26%	7%	84	+0.1	203/292/312	108	273	8	40	26%	6%	73	-0.2
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2015 · MLB	30	52→62	39→40	59→65	46	246/295/334	88	306	5	34	21%	6%	78	-0.3	245/288/320	75	305	4	29	20%	6%	72	-0.7	246/284/302	56	305	2	33	19%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Billy Hamilton 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	39→40	59→70	49	220/285/307	86	285	5	34	24%	8%	69	-0.9	195/248/294	99	291	8	34	33%	6%	52	-2.2	158/208/235	77	253	4	47	37%	6%	22	-1.0
✕Jonathan Davis 2023 · MLB	31	46→52	40→45	57→55	51	219/314/311	92	297	8	27	27%	10%	82	+0.0	218/293/335	117	304	10	17	29%	8%	79	-0.2	204/277/324	120	289	10	14	31%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Andrew Romine 2017 · MLB	31	50→55	40	55	46	239/297/327	88	294	8	22	21%	6%	78	-0.3	231/286/330	99	285	8	15	21%	6%	75	-0.5	225/274/315	90	276	8	17	21%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Alexi Casilla 2014 · MLB	30	49→59	39→40	60	49	233/287/328	95	269	5	30	16%	7%	74	-0.5	235/276/317	82	277	6	18	17%	5%	67	-1.1	235/270/302	67	279	4	14	17%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Eugenio Velez 2014 · MLB	32	51→60	43→50	58→65	46	246/300/367	121	303	10	30	22%	7%	88	+0.5	251/296/349	98	308	7	29	20%	6%	82	+0.0	255/296/336	81	311	6	30	19%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Freddy Guzman 2012 · AAA	31	47→57	41→45	61→70	46	228/274/331	102	268	8	35	18%	6%	70	-0.9	258/310/368	110	306	8	65	18%	7%	92	+0.7	253/306/339	85	307	5	74	18%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Michael Bourn 2014 · MLB	31	57→62	41→45	59→65	49	269/329/376	108	340	7	31	22%	8%	101	+1.4	246/305/337	91	322	5	18	23%	8%	82	+0.0	239/299/320	80	315	3	18	23%	8%	77	-0.3
✕Mike McCoy 2012 · MLB	31	51→58	39→40	57→60	56	240/320/324	84	285	6	31	17%	10%	86	+0.3	214/291/288	74	262	6	27	19%	10%	68	-1.0	196/274/257	61	242	4	26	19%	9%	52	-1.4
✕Willie Bloomquist 2010 · MLB	32	55	38→40	59→60	50	260/313/341	81	304	6	29	16%	7%	86	+0.3	261/303/353	92	301	7	24	15%	6%	86	+0.3	293/322/363	70	348	1	7	15%	4%	94	+0.3
✕Andy Fox 2003 · MLB	32	50→52	41→40	58→60	52	238/317/335	97	285	8	28	19%	9%	88	+0.4	215/288/314	99	272	8	17	23%	8%	72	-0.7	193/267/257	64	262	0	5	24%	6%	52	-0.4
✕Wynton Bernard 2024 · MLB	33	49→59	43→45	60	45	240/290/359	119	294	10	32	22%	6%	82	+0.0	232/277/340	108	287	10	30	22%	5%	74	-0.6	225/254/312	87	273	7	44	20%	3%	54	-0.9
✕Elliot Johnson 2014 · MLB	30	45→55	42→50	59→60	44	220/273/323	104	281	10	33	25%	7%	68	-1.0	204/263/314	110	270	9	17	26%	7%	63	-1.4	184/245/288	104	247	7	12	27%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Tyler Graham 2014 · AAA	30	47→54	39→40	60→65	45	225/290/311	86	287	6	33	23%	6%	72	-0.7	228/274/303	75	282	6	28	21%	5%	63	-1.3	230/270/276	46	284	3	38	19%	4%	52	-1.6
✕Antoan Richardson 2014 · AAA	30	55→58	36→40	61→60	53	252/336/324	72	327	2	29	22%	10%	92	+0.7	229/303/309	80	308	4	32	25%	8%	77	-0.3	246/327/320	74	318	4	49	22%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Tony Gwynn Jr. 2013 · MLB	30	51→57	38→40	59→60	48	241/293/329	88	291	4	28	18%	7%	76	-0.4	227/289/299	72	274	4	17	17%	8%	68	-1.0	215/282/271	56	256	2	15	15%	8%	57	-1.0
✕Craig Gentry 2015 · MLB	31	55	37→40	62→60	49	256/323/331	75	307	4	36	17%	7%	88	+0.5	218/277/292	74	274	6	25	21%	7%	63	-1.4	218/282/291	73	279	4	29	22%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Roman Quinn 2022 · MLB	29	47→57	45	61→65	44	224/301/353	129	315	11	31	31%	8%	86	+0.3	210/301/333	123	337	10	25	37%	10%	82	+0.0	178/281/285	107	312	8	34	40%	11%	63	-0.4

Bryce Johnson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps