Josh Smith

2B Toronto Blue Jays
Age 29 L/R 5'9" / 172 lbs MLB Svc 4.657 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426MLBTEX592.258/.339/.39413111062.2
202527MLBTEX563.251/.335/.3661012971.4
202628AAATOR124.204/.322/.3112645—.168/.264/.234
202628MLBTOR243.203/.293/.3216472-0.2
2027PROJ29MLBTOR376.233/.316/.35079900.5
2028PROJ30MLBTOR362.229/.312/.34276870.0
2029PROJ31MLBTOR344.225/.307/.3326383-0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 3.5  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.657First FA2029
2027Arb-2$2M2028Arb-3$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed60
xwOBA46
Bat Spd29
Avg EV25
Barrel%23
Form.221/.308/.364 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .231/.313/.348
CompsGarrett Stubbs (age 29) · Andy Fox (age 30) · Ed Lucas (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 6490vR 100
AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .316 / .350
PA376
HR7
SB9
K%20
BB%9
BABIP276
ISO111
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +1.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -1.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +8.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.70.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
330.237
POWER40
Barrel%
234.7
Avg EV
2587.2
Bat Spd
2969.1
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
6027.9
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%24%▼▼29% over 56 PA (60d) · proj 20%
BB%10%▲11% over 56 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.143▲.229 over 48 AB (60d) · proj .117
HR/BB4.3%▲9.1% over 33 BBE (60d) · proj 2.9%
BABIP.270▼.133 over 30 BIP (60d) · proj .275
SLASH.221/.308/.364·proj .231/.313/.348
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1231 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
262
969
—
wRC+
84
106
▶▶R
wOBA
293
324
▶R
ISO
086
129
▶▶R
BABIP
339
291
◀L
K%
27.1%
16.4%
▶▶R
BB%
6.1%
9.5%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2022
Service   4.657 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$2M+0.7$3M+$0.4M
2028Arb-3$2M———
Totals $2M $3M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 127102 30503 18206 72 294429431860 137338 1614 390 108 — — — — — —
202123 A+Hickory Crawdads — 174147 461534 18368 143 313416537954 224393 2110 417 99 — — — — — —
202123 ATampa Tarpons — 5039 13006 764 50 3334807951.275 462259 1214 533 170 — — — — — —
202224 MLBTexas Rangers — 253213 42502 28507 43 197310249559 52244 2011 265 63 -11 -0 +1 +2 +5 -0.3
202224 AAARound Rock Express — 261221 641346 33546 94 290396466862 176358 2113 384 110 — — — — — —
202325 MLBTexas Rangers — 232195 36816 25559 10 185306328634 144222 2411 291 80 -6 +0 -2 +1 +5 -0.2
202325 INTLLeones del Escogido — 2118 4000 350 20 222333222556 308 2414 272 70 — — — — — —
202426 MLBTexas Rangers — 592523 13530113 4612118 112 258339394733 136311 208 329 106 +5 +1 +1 +2 +13 2.2
202527 MLBTexas Rangers — 563495 12423210 551008 123 251335366700 115295 1810 317 97 -2 +1 -3 +6 +12 1.4
202628 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 243212 43516 25562 41 203293321614 118243 2310 278 72 -8 +0 -1 +1 +5 -0.2
202628 AAABuffalo Bisons — 124103 21502 14204 60 204322311633 107226 1611 290 45 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 18831638 38071537 17938244 329 232324349673 117279 2010 305 93 -16 +3 -4 +12 +41 3.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 127109 29502 11236 72 266365367732 101311 189 328 108 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLEHickory Crawdads — 174152 351024 13498 143 230324401725 171318 287 315 99 — — — — — —
202123 A MLETampa Tarpons — 5041 12005 584 50 2934206591.079 366223 1610 419 170 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 253213 42502 28507 43 197310249559 52244 2011 262 63 -11 -0 +1 +2 +5 -0.3
202224 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 261231 611245 23646 94 264346416762 152340 259 331 110 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 232195 36816 25559 10 185306328634 144222 2411 286 80 -6 +0 -2 +1 +5 -0.2
202426 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 592524 13531112 4512118 112 258337389727 132311 208 325 106 +5 +1 +1 +2 +13 2.2
202527 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 563498 1242429 531008 123 249331359690 110295 189 312 97 -2 +1 -3 +6 +12 1.4
202628 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 243213 43516 24562 41 202289319608 117243 2310 274 72 -8 +0 -1 +1 +5 -0.2
202628 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 124107 18401 10244 60 168264234498 65190 198 234 45 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE3 teams — 351302 7615211 298118 265 252352424776 172308 238 335 113 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW3 teams — 351288 8920313 436218 265 309430535965 226355 1812 424 113 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE2 teams — 514444 1011746 5111413 137 227325324649 97290 2210 297 87 — — — — — —
202224 AAA RAW2 teams — 514434 1061848 6110413 137 244354359714 115301 2012 325 87 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLE2 teams — 253214 39916 27609 30 182300318618 136221 2411 286 80 -6 +1 -2 +1 +5 -0.1
202325 MLB RAW2 teams — 253213 40816 28609 30 188308319627 131230 2411 289 80 -6 +1 -2 +1 +5 -0.1
202426 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 592524 13531112 4512118 112 258337389727 132312 208 325 106 +5 +1 +1 +2 +13 2.2
202426 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 592523 13530113 4612118 112 258339394733 136311 208 329 106 +5 +1 +1 +2 +13 2.2
202527 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 563498 1242429 531008 123 249331359690 110295 189 312 97 -2 +1 -3 +6 +12 1.4
202527 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 563495 12423210 551008 123 251335366700 115295 1810 317 97 -2 +1 -3 +6 +12 1.4
202628 MLB MLE2 teams — 367320 61917 34806 101 191281291571 100227 229 261 62 -16 +2 -1 +1 +8 -0.7
202628 MLB RAW2 teams — 367315 641018 39766 101 203303317620 114237 2111 282 62 -16 +2 -1 +1 +8 -0.7
202123 A+ MLE3 teams — 351301 7615211 298118 265 252352425778 173302 238 335 113 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE2 teams — 514445 1011746 5111413 137 227325324648 97293 2210 297 87 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLE2 teams — 253215 39916 27609 30 181300316616 135222 2411 286 80 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 592524 13531112 4512118 112 258337389727 132311 208 325 106 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 563497 1242429 531008 123 249331360691 111295 189 312 97 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLE2 teams — 367324 61917 34806 101 188281287568 99225 229 261 62 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 592524 13531112 4512118 112 258337389727 132311 208 325 106 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 563497 1242429 531008 123 249331360691 111295 189 312 97 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLE2 teams — 367324 61917 34806 101 188281287568 99225 229 261 62 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLETOR 100% 464411 941719 42928 103 232315349664 117275 209 301 90 -6 +1 -2 +2 +10 0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXTOR 100% 376332 771417 34757 92 233316350665 117276 209 302 90 -5 +1 -1 +1 +8 0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLETOR 100% 362321 731317 32736 62 229312341652 112273 209 296 87 -6 +0 -3 +1 +8 0.0
202931 MLB MLETOR 100% 344305 681216 30716 31 224307331637 106270 219 290 83 -7 +0 -4 +1 +7 -0.2
203032 MLB MLETOR 100% 319283 621115 28675 11 218300317617 99266 219 282 77 -9 -0 -5 +1 +7 -0.6
202830 MLB CTXTOR 100% 362321 731317 32736 62 229312342654 112274 209 297 87 -6 +0 -3 +1 +8 0.0
202931 MLB CTXTOR 100% 344305 681216 30716 31 225307332639 106271 219 291 83 -7 +0 -4 +1 +7 -0.2
203032 MLB CTXTOR 100% 319283 621115 28675 11 219301318618 99267 219 283 77 -9 -0 -5 +1 +7 -0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 29082547 583107855 26959361 4213 229317342659 113276 209 300 90 -38 +3 -16 +16 +63 2.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650569 13024212 6013314 93 228317341658 112276 209 300 90 -8 +1 -4 +4 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 40413543 8151551576 36384296 9424 230318347665 117279 219 301 90 -42 +4 -18 +17 +71 3.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650570 13125212 5813515 154 230317344661 114279 219 301 90 -8 +1 -4 +3 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 124 PAwOBA .290 → .234 (−56)K% 16.1% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.13%÷1.000×1.200——19.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.29%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9827.65%
HBP% /PA3.23%—×0.940—×0.9822.98%
Singles /BIP16.87%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×0.98214.63%
Doubles /BIP6.02%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×0.9824.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP2.41%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9821.66%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .290 → .234; ISO .107 → .081; BABIP .226 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 261 PAwOBA .376 → .331 (−45)K% 20.7% → 24.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.69%÷1.015×1.200——24.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.64%÷0.997×0.690—×1.0339.04%
HBP% /PA2.30%—×0.940—×1.0332.23%
Singles /BIP24.55%÷0.986×0.930×0.986×1.03323.59%
Doubles /BIP7.78%÷0.938×0.830×0.986×1.0337.02%
Triples /BIP2.40%÷0.900×0.970×0.986×1.0332.63%
Home runs /BIP3.59%÷0.957×0.700—×1.0332.71%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 97, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .376 → .331; ISO .176 → .155; BABIP .358 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hickory Crawdads · 174 PAwOBA .406 → .315 (−92)K% 20.7% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.69%÷0.990×1.350——28.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.34%÷0.964×0.710—×0.9887.53%
HBP% /PA4.60%—×0.810—×0.9883.68%
Singles /BIP21.62%÷1.024×0.910×0.972×0.98818.45%
Doubles /BIP13.51%÷1.091×0.830×0.972×0.9889.87%
Triples /BIP2.70%÷0.900×0.820×0.972×0.9882.36%
Home runs /BIP3.60%÷0.881×0.830—×0.9883.35%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .406 → .315; ISO .224 → .177; BABIP .393 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 127 PAwOBA .384 → .328 (−55)K% 15.7% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.75%÷1.044×1.220——18.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.17%÷1.098×0.690—×1.0129.01%
HBP% /PA4.72%—×0.850—×1.0124.06%
Singles /BIP26.83%÷1.006×0.940×0.989×1.01225.10%
Doubles /BIP6.10%÷0.957×0.870×0.989×1.0125.55%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.995×0.920×0.989×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP3.66%÷1.114×0.780—×1.0122.59%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 99, K 109, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .384 → .328; ISO .137 → .114; BABIP .338 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ATampa Tarpons · 50 PAwOBA .518 → .419 (−99)K% 12.0% → 16.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.00%÷1.000×1.360——16.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.00%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9809.47%
HBP% /PA8.00%—×0.780—×0.9806.12%
Singles /BIP21.21%÷1.000×0.920—×0.98019.12%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9800.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910—×0.9800.00%
Home runs /BIP18.18%÷1.000×0.800—×0.98014.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .518 → .419; ISO .462 → .373; BABIP .259 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .