Josh Smith — OGILVIE

Josh SmithSS Texas Rangers

Age 28 L/R 5'9" / 172 lbs MLB Svc 3.750 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION220 act + 156 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 7695vR 102

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .316 / .341

PA156

HR3

K%20

BB%9

BABIP276

ISO109

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

817.8%

xwOBA

480.306

POWER40

Barrel%

224.5

Avg EV

2887.4

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE55

Chase%

7526.8%

SPEED50

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1231 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

262

969

—

wRC+

106

▶▶R

wOBA

293

324

▶R

ISO

086

129

▶▶R

BABIP

339

291

◀L

27.1%

16.4%

▶▶R

BB%

6.1%

9.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$7M	+$4M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	3 teams	—	351	302	76	15	3	11	29	81	18	26	5	252	352	430	783	179	308	23	8	336	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	3 teams	—	351	288	89	20	3	13	43	62	18	26	5	309	430	535	965	226	355	18	12	424	182	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	514	444	99	17	4	7	51	118	13	13	7	223	321	327	647	104	285	23	10	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	514	434	106	18	4	8	61	104	13	13	7	244	354	359	714	115	301	20	12	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	253	214	39	9	1	6	27	60	9	3	0	182	300	318	618	136	221	24	11	285	76	-7	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.0
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	253	213	40	8	1	6	28	60	9	3	0	188	308	319	627	131	230	24	11	289	79	-6	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.1
2024	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	592	523	134	30	1	13	46	121	18	11	2	256	337	392	729	136	309	20	8	321	104	+3	+1	+1	+2	+17	2.4
2024	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	592	523	135	30	1	13	46	121	18	11	2	258	339	394	733	136	311	20	8	329	110	+7	+1	+1	+2	+17	2.9
2025	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	563	496	123	23	2	10	55	100	8	12	3	248	333	363	696	115	292	18	10	308	94	-4	+1	-3	+6	+16	1.6
2025	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	563	495	124	23	2	10	55	100	8	12	3	251	335	366	700	115	295	18	10	317	101	+0	+1	-3	+6	+16	2.1
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	TEX	—	220	196	42	6	1	3	19	47	2	6	1	214	290	301	591	87	262	21	9	261	58	-10	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.4
YTD	28	MLB	TEX	—	220	194	45	7	1	3	21	42	2	6	1	232	313	325	638	93	276	19	10	290	80	-5	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
ROS	28	MLB	TEX	100%	156	138	32	6	0	3	14	31	3	4	1	232	316	341	657	109	282	20	9	302	89	-2	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.3
ROS	28	MLB	TEX	100%	156	138	32	6	0	3	14	31	3	4	1	232	316	341	657	109	284	20	9	291	81	-3	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.2
FULL	28	MLB	TEX	—	376	334	74	12	1	6	33	78	5	10	2	222	301	317	618	96	268	21	9	274	68	-14	+1	-1	+1	+11	-0.2
TOT	28	MLB	TEX	—	376	334	74	12	1	6	33	78	5	10	2	222	301	317	618	96	268	21	9	278	71	-12	+1	-1	+1	+11	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	TEX	100%	580	513	120	23	1	10	52	117	10	12	3	234	317	341	658	107	284	20	9	301	88	-8	+1	-3	+2	+16	1.0
2028	30	MLB	TEX	100%	569	504	118	23	1	10	51	117	9	10	2	234	316	343	659	109	283	21	9	298	86	-9	+1	-3	+2	+16	0.7
2029	31	MLB	TEX	100%	557	493	114	22	1	9	50	116	9	9	2	231	313	335	648	103	280	21	9	294	83	-11	+1	-4	+2	+16	0.4
2030	32	MLB	TEX	100%	546	484	108	20	1	8	48	116	9	7	2	223	305	318	623	95	277	21	9	288	78	-13	+1	-5	+2	+15	0.0
2031	33	MLB	TEX	100%	472	420	93	17	1	7	42	102	7	5	1	221	303	317	619	95	272	22	9	281	73	-14	+1	-5	+2	+13	-0.4
2032	34	MLB	TEX	100%	425	378	80	14	1	5	37	95	7	3	1	212	294	294	587	82	266	22	9	271	66	-16	+0	-6	+2	+12	-0.9
2027	29	MLB	TEX	100%	580	513	121	23	1	10	52	117	10	12	3	236	318	343	661	107	285	20	9	290	80	-13	+1	-3	+2	+16	0.4
2028	30	MLB	TEX	100%	569	504	119	23	1	10	51	117	9	10	2	236	317	345	663	109	284	21	9	287	78	-14	+1	-3	+2	+16	0.2
2029	31	MLB	TEX	100%	557	493	114	22	1	9	50	116	9	9	2	231	313	335	648	103	282	21	9	283	75	-16	+1	-4	+2	+16	-0.1
2030	32	MLB	TEX	100%	546	484	110	21	1	8	48	116	9	7	2	227	309	324	633	97	278	21	9	277	70	-18	+1	-5	+2	+15	-0.5
2031	33	MLB	TEX	100%	472	420	93	17	1	7	42	102	7	5	1	221	303	317	619	95	273	22	9	270	65	-19	+1	-5	+2	+13	-0.8
2032	34	MLB	TEX	100%	425	378	80	14	1	5	37	95	7	3	1	212	294	294	587	82	267	22	9	261	58	-20	+0	-6	+2	+12	-1.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4945	4356	1006	192	10	83	448	1020	96	78	20	231	316	337	653	106	282	21	9	290	80	-112	+8	-29	+23	+140	3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	132	25	1	11	59	134	13	10	3	230	316	335	651	105	281	21	9	290	80	-15	+1	-4	+3	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5578	4909	1136	219	17	99	502	1174	120	115	29	231	318	343	661	112	283	21	9	298	86	-86	+11	-29	+24	+158	8.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	133	26	2	12	58	137	14	13	3	233	318	348	666	115	284	21	9	298	86	-10	+1	-3	+3	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	127	102	30	5	0	3	18	20	6	7	2	294	429	431	860	137	338	16	14	390	157	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2021	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	174	147	46	15	3	4	18	36	8	14	3	313	416	537	954	224	393	21	10	417	177	+15	+2	—	—	+5	2.2
2021	23	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	50	39	13	0	0	6	7	6	4	5	0	333	480	795	1.275	462	259	12	14	533	266	+9	+1	—	—	+1	1.2
2022	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	253	213	42	5	0	2	28	50	7	4	3	197	310	249	559	52	244	20	11	265	61	-11	-0	+1	+2	+7	-0.1
2022	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	261	221	64	13	4	6	33	54	6	9	4	290	396	466	862	176	358	21	13	384	152	+15	+0	—	—	+7	2.3
2023	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	232	195	36	8	1	6	25	55	9	1	0	185	306	328	634	144	222	24	11	291	81	-5	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.1
2023	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	21	18	4	0	0	0	3	5	0	2	0	222	333	222	556		308	24	14	272	66	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2024	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	592	523	135	30	1	13	46	121	18	11	2	258	339	394	733	136	311	20	8	329	110	+7	+1	+1	+2	+17	2.9
2025	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	563	495	124	23	2	10	55	100	8	12	3	251	335	366	700	115	295	18	10	317	101	+0	+1	-3	+6	+16	2.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1640	1426	337	66	4	31	154	326	42	28	8	236	328	353	682	117	284	20	9	310	95	-9	+2	-3	+11	+46	4.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	12	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
	/162	664	20	13	231	330	383	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,303	88	83	231	313	338	+38	-6	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	11	10	231	313	338	+4.8	-0.7	1.3	pk7: 10
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	9	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
	/162	664	13	8	246	327	370	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Smith (OGILVIE)	28	50	40	50	55	222/301/317	96	268	6	10	21%	9%	71	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tucker Barnhart 2018 · MLB	27	53→54	43→45	50→40	54	254/326/374	120	293	10	5	17%	9%	100	+1.7	240/322/374	134	286	14	3	20%	11%	98	+1.6	230/318/362	132	274	15	1	21%	11%	88	+0.5
✕Greg Garcia 2019 · MLB	29	51→54	40	46→50	56	241/336/335	94	297	8	7	20%	11%	95	+1.4	240/338/350	110	308	9	6	22%	12%	99	+1.7	251/368/361	110	329	7	0	22%	14%	111	+1.6
✕Mitch Maier 2010 · MLB	28	51→56	42→50	49→50	49	245/304/349	104	288	9	12	18%	7%	84	+0.6	247/322/360	113	306	9	9	20%	10%	94	+1.3	246/326/361	115	308	8	6	21%	10%	93	+0.5
●Jordany Valdespin 2016 · MLB	28	52→53	43→50	49→55	49	250/305/361	111	280	10	16	15%	6%	87	+0.8	253/302/352	99	297	8	17	17%	6%	83	+0.6	261/304/360	99	300	10	18	16%	5%	83	+0.3
✕Josh Johnson 2014 · AAA	28	52→49	43→45	48→50	52	253/317/369	117	294	10	15	18%	8%	95	+1.4	230/300/305	75	277	5	11	17%	9%	71	-0.3	217/294/254	37	264	1	8	17%	10%	56	-0.6
✕Jeff Fiorentino 2011 · MLB	28	50→53	44→50	51→50	49	246/304/369	122	294	11	15	20%	8%	89	+1.0	227/292/357	130	274	12	10	21%	8%	82	+0.5	220/294/359	138	263	13	8	21%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Alex Cora 2003 · MLB	27	52→53	43→45	49→50	53	248/319/367	120	275	9	8	14%	8%	95	+1.4	249/313/357	108	270	9	7	11%	6%	90	+1.0	242/320/336	94	258	8	9	10%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Jose Munoz 2007 · AAA	28	52→49	43→45	44→50	51	252/321/357	105	302	10	9	20%	9%	94	+1.3	248/322/365	117	293	10	11	18%	10%	95	+1.4	254/331/376	122	296	10	11	17%	10%	99	+1.0
✕Garrett Stubbs 2022 · MLB	29	45	43→45	53→50	53	220/304/331	110	272	10	15	22%	10%	80	+0.4	227/306/347	120	292	12	12	25%	9%	85	+0.7	217/300/315	98	284	9	12	25%	9%	73	-0.0
✕Josh Rojas 2022 · MLB	28	51→54	46→50	49→55	52	247/322/388	140	312	13	14	24%	10%	102	+1.8	247/320/365	118	310	11	18	22%	10%	95	+1.4	241/316/349	108	301	10	20	22%	9%	86	+0.6
✕Kris Watts 2012 · AAA	28	48→53	43→45	48→30	53	235/319/352	117	277	10	3	19%	9%	92	+1.2	210/293/314	104	260	9	4	21%	9%	72	-0.2	182/272/270	89	223	7	0	21%	9%	50	-0.5
✕Vimael Machín 2022 · MLB	28	45→54	45→50	50	48	224/286/352	128	266	12	5	20%	7%	78	+0.2	232/298/334	102	278	8	4	18%	8%	78	+0.2	244/298/379	135	287	16	11	20%	7%	87	+0.5
✕Jace Peterson 2018 · MLB	28	49→58	41→50	47→55	56	232/316/334	103	281	8	11	20%	11%	85	+0.7	230/311/368	138	282	12	18	21%	10%	92	+1.2	243/319/402	159	297	17	19	23%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Jamie Ritchie 2021 · AAA	28	49→52	43→40	49→45	48	237/309/350	112	307	9	7	24%	8%	87	+0.8	234/314/320	86	295	7	5	21%	9%	81	+0.4	228/317/289	61	289	4	2	21%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Ramón Vázquez 2005 · MLB	28	53→59	39→45	51→50	55	251/325/343	92	303	5	10	18%	10%	91	+1.1	222/288/319	97	277	8	7	21%	8%	70	-0.3	241/325/356	115	295	9	2	20%	11%	90	+0.6
✕Steve Tolleson 2011 · MLB	27	52→53	44→45	48→50	48	255/310/380	125	296	11	11	18%	7%	95	+1.4	232/294/336	104	291	9	15	22%	8%	76	+0.1	236/304/337	101	299	9	14	22%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Ehire Adrianza 2018 · MLB	28	50→49	44→50	49→50	50	244/304/363	119	279	11	15	17%	7%	88	+0.9	245/308/370	125	297	11	9	20%	8%	92	+1.2	241/326/373	132	289	11	1	19%	10%	97	+0.5
✕Miles Mastrobuoni 2023 · MLB	27	52→57	44→45	52→60	46	253/305/371	118	313	11	16	22%	7%	90	+1.0	233/300/332	99	292	8	25	21%	9%	78	+0.2	225/302/305	80	282	5	30	20%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Eric Campbell 2015 · MLB	28	54→57	43→45	49→50	51	258/333/376	117	322	10	11	22%	9%	104	+2.0	240/327/350	110	299	10	13	21%	10%	95	+1.4	243/339/350	107	298	9	12	20%	11%	97	+1.0
✕Tug Hulett 2010 · MLB	27	47→55	46→45	51→50	48	230/295/361	132	288	13	12	24%	8%	84	+0.6	217/285/330	113	272	9	9	22%	8%	71	-0.3	215/283/313	99	269	7	7	22%	8%	64	-0.5