J.C. Escarra
C Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 630 | .282/.382/.460 | 15 | 4 | 101 | — | .217/.290/.345 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 204 | .291/.409/.412 | 3 | 2 | 103 | — | .239/.310/.299 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLBNYY | 98 | .202/.302/.333 | 2 | 1 | 79 | 0.9 | |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 313 | .290/.377/.467 | 11 | 1 | 83 | — | .242/.306/.379 |
| 2026 | 31 | MLBNYY | 92 | .188/.242/.271 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 32 | MLBNYY | 70 | .218/.288/.342 | 1 | 1 | 77 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ53% MLB | 33 | MLBNYY | 110 | .213/.282/.330 | 2 | 0 | 72 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 58 / POW 43
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | GCL Orioles | — | 243 | 192 | 43 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 382 | 349 | 731 | 125 | 270 | 16 | 16 | 340 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 37 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 270 | 314 | 585 | 86 | 250 | 16 | 5 | 265 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 507 | 442 | 104 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 76 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 328 | 364 | 692 | 129 | 255 | 15 | 10 | 314 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 214 | 182 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 41 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 225 | 322 | 357 | 679 | 132 | 262 | 19 | 10 | 302 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 158 | 128 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 359 | 359 | 718 | 141 | 264 | 22 | 14 | 329 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 179 | 159 | 44 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 343 | 415 | 758 | 138 | 328 | 18 | 7 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 245 | 207 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 242 | 351 | 333 | 685 | 92 | 276 | 13 | 11 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 201 | 169 | 51 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 302 | 407 | 527 | 934 | 225 | 323 | 15 | 13 | 408 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 292 | 257 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 323 | 374 | 697 | 140 | 259 | 13 | 10 | 315 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 137 | 113 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 363 | 471 | 558 | 1.028 | 195 | 400 | 12 | 13 | 451 | 191 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 98 | 84 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 302 | 333 | 635 | 131 | 214 | 14 | 11 | 286 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +4 | +5 | +2 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 133 | 110 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 300 | 403 | 400 | 803 | 100 | 348 | 17 | 14 | 356 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 71 | 55 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 420 | 436 | 857 | 164 | 280 | 8 | 15 | 378 | 142 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 92 | 85 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 242 | 271 | 512 | 82 | 235 | 20 | 7 | 231 | 43 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 291 | 256 | 77 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 301 | 378 | 488 | 867 | 188 | 322 | 15 | 9 | 381 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 22 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 364 | 125 | 489 | 154 | 14 | 23 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 190 | 169 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 273 | 302 | 575 | 107 | 225 | 17 | 9 | 260 | 62 | -9 | +0 | +3 | +13 | +4 | 1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 243 | 209 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 153 | 266 | 239 | 505 | 86 | 193 | 24 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 37 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 216 | 278 | 494 | 83 | 227 | 24 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 507 | 466 | 88 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 108 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 249 | 285 | 534 | 97 | 218 | 21 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 214 | 189 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 201 | 274 | 307 | 581 | 106 | 237 | 23 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 158 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 182 | 282 | 285 | 567 | 102 | 232 | 27 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 201 | 178 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 36 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 242 | 322 | 388 | 709 | 146 | 271 | 18 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 292 | 266 | 53 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 268 | 316 | 584 | 117 | 228 | 16 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 98 | 84 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 302 | 333 | 635 | 131 | 214 | 14 | 11 | 284 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +4 | +5 | +2 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 133 | 117 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 310 | 299 | 609 | 60 | 293 | 21 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 92 | 85 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 242 | 271 | 512 | 82 | 235 | 20 | 7 | 232 | 43 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +7 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 291 | 264 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 242 | 306 | 379 | 684 | 136 | 262 | 18 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 243 | 209 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 153 | 266 | 239 | 505 | 86 | 199 | 24 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK RAW | GCL Orioles | — | 243 | 192 | 43 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 382 | 349 | 731 | 125 | 270 | 16 | 16 | 340 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 37 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 216 | 278 | 494 | 83 | 231 | 24 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 37 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 270 | 314 | 585 | 86 | 250 | 16 | 5 | 265 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 507 | 466 | 88 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 108 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 249 | 285 | 534 | 97 | 222 | 21 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 507 | 442 | 104 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 76 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 328 | 364 | 692 | 129 | 255 | 15 | 10 | 314 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 326 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 94 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 190 | 275 | 285 | 560 | 95 | 245 | 25 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 372 | 310 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 76 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 223 | 338 | 358 | 696 | 135 | 263 | 20 | 12 | 314 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL MLE | Leones de Ponce | — | 179 | 159 | 44 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 343 | 415 | 758 | 138 | 328 | 18 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL RAW | Leones de Ponce | — | 179 | 159 | 44 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 343 | 415 | 758 | 138 | 328 | 18 | 7 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 245 | 207 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 242 | 351 | 333 | 685 | 92 | 276 | 13 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 245 | 207 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 242 | 351 | 333 | 685 | 92 | 276 | 13 | 11 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 630 | 564 | 124 | 35 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 105 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 297 | 355 | 652 | 135 | 250 | 17 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 630 | 539 | 152 | 45 | 3 | 15 | 73 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 282 | 382 | 460 | 842 | 178 | 309 | 13 | 12 | 374 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 302 | 260 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 320 | 323 | 643 | 92 | 268 | 18 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 302 | 249 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 43 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 374 | 386 | 760 | 124 | 287 | 14 | 13 | 338 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 405 | 369 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 73 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 289 | 347 | 636 | 119 | 260 | 18 | 6 | 278 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 405 | 357 | 95 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 347 | 420 | 767 | 154 | 294 | 16 | 9 | 341 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 243 | 209 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 153 | 266 | 239 | 505 | 86 | 193 | 24 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 37 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 216 | 278 | 494 | 83 | 227 | 24 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 507 | 465 | 88 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 108 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 249 | 286 | 535 | 97 | 218 | 21 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 372 | 331 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 94 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 187 | 275 | 281 | 556 | 94 | 235 | 25 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 630 | 563 | 124 | 35 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 105 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 297 | 355 | 652 | 135 | 246 | 17 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 302 | 265 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 320 | 317 | 637 | 91 | 260 | 18 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 405 | 370 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 73 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 289 | 346 | 635 | 119 | 256 | 18 | 6 | 278 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 630 | 563 | 124 | 35 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 105 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 220 | 297 | 355 | 652 | 135 | 246 | 17 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 302 | 265 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 226 | 320 | 317 | 637 | 91 | 260 | 18 | 10 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 31 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 405 | 370 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 73 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 289 | 346 | 635 | 119 | 256 | 18 | 6 | 278 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB MLE | NYY | 45% | 378 | 342 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 70 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 217 | 287 | 337 | 624 | 120 | 249 | 19 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -10 | +0 | +1 | +7 | +8 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB CTX | NYY | 45% | 70 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 288 | 342 | 630 | 124 | 249 | 19 | 7 | 284 | 77 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 33 | MLB MLE | NYY | 53% | 207 | 187 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 281 | 326 | 607 | 114 | 246 | 19 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -7 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB CTX | NYY | 53% | 110 | 100 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 282 | 330 | 612 | 118 | 246 | 19 | 7 | 276 | 72 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 300 | 269 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 53 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 270 | 301 | 571 | 104 | 227 | 18 | 8 | 266 | 42 | -12 | +0 | +1 | +15 | +6 | 1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 583 | 115 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 115 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 270 | 302 | 572 | 105 | 226 | 18 | 8 | 266 | 42 | -27 | +0 | +3 | +32 | +14 | 2.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3282 | 2923 | 621 | 139 | 13 | 52 | 248 | 636 | 71 | 22 | 4 | 212 | 290 | 322 | 612 | 110 | 251 | 19 | 8 | 230 | 42 | -20 | +0 | -0 | +19 | +12 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 124 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 126 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 291 | 325 | 616 | 111 | 253 | 19 | 8 | 230 | 42 | -23 | +0 | -0 | +22 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 291 PAwOBA .375 → .293 (−82)K% 14.8% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 5.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 3.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .375 → .293; ISO .188 → .133; BABIP .322 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 133 PAwOBA .358 → .289 (−70)K% 17.3% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.29% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 26.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 2.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.944 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.070 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .358 → .289; ISO .100 → .077; BABIP .348 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AASomerset Patriots · 292 PAwOBA .308 → .257 (−50)K% 13.0% → 15.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.01% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.59% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.98% | ÷1.050 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.958 | 13.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷0.902 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.958 | 7.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷0.934 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.958 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.83% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 1.33% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .308 → .257; ISO .140 → .121; BABIP .259 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 201 PAwOBA .401 → .316 (−85)K% 14.9% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.93% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.43% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.86% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 19.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.07% | ÷1.072 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 7.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.76% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.79% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .401 → .316; ISO .225 → .160; BABIP .323 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 214 PAwOBA .300 → .254 (−46)K% 19.2% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.16% | ÷0.982 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.81% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.44% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×1.018 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.09% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.018 | 5.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.018 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .300 → .254; ISO .132 → .104; BABIP .262 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AABowie Baysox · 158 PAwOBA .321 → .254 (−67)K% 22.2% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.15% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.66% | ÷1.065 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.80% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 3.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.43% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 18.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.30% | ÷0.995 | ×0.870 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.988 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.258 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.63% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .321 → .254; ISO .141 → .102; BABIP .264 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Frederick Keys · 507 PAwOBA .307 → .237 (−70)K% 15.0% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.99% | ÷1.001 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.06% | ÷1.111 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.37% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 3.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.135 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 2.78% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 100, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .307 → .237; ISO .129 → .101; BABIP .255 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Frederick Keys · 37 PAwOBA .258 → .201 (−57)K% 16.2% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷0.992 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷0.956 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.021 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 22.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.357 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 171, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .258 → .201; ISO .086 → .053; BABIP .250 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .