Vimael Machín

3B Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 33 L/R 5'10" / 196 lbs AAA HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.810 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	INTLCriollos de C…	168	.268/.381/.331	2	4	112	—
2025	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	669	.269/.346/.427	20	20	77	—	.237/.278/.374
2026	32	AAACOL	499	.288/.370/.438	12	7	79	—	.240/.295/.349
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBCOL	24	.268/.320/.426	1	0	97	0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBCOL	20	.259/.310/.404	1	0	89	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.810First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$1M2031Ext$2M2032Ext$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2025

Avg EV51

xwOBA36

Bat Spd23

Barrel%19

Speed13

CompsKevan Smith (age 33) · Denard Span (age 34) · Elias Díaz (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†97

AVG/OBP/SLG.268 / .320 / .426

PA24

HR1

K%21

BB%8

BABIP310

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2025

CONTACT60

xAVG

220.228

POWER55

Barrel%

194.2

Avg EV

5189.2

Bat Spd

2368.5

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

1325.7

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2020

Service 0.810 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	A	South Bend Cubs	—	129	113	20	4	0	0	15	20	0	1	0	177	273	212	486	35	213	16	12	233	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	25	18	5	0	0	0	7	4	0	0	1	278	480	278	758		357	16	28	376	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	South Bend Cubs	—	120	103	25	6	0	0	13	23	2	3	0	243	339	301	640	58	312	19	11	295	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	173	157	43	6	0	1	16	31	0	0	2	274	341	331	672	57	336	18	9	309	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A	South Bend Cubs	—	305	272	87	17	1	10	24	33	0	4	2	320	375	500	875	180	332	11	8	375	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	296	250	55	10	1	5	39	54	3	2	1	220	332	328	660	108	259	18	13	303	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	141	110	23	6	0	2	28	23	1	1	0	209	374	318	692	109	241	16	20	324	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	139	118	37	6	2	2	19	15	1	4	1	314	413	449	862	136	347	11	14	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	31	25	8	1	1	1	6	5	0	0	0	320	452	560	1.012	240	368	16	19	442	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	498	422	124	26	1	6	63	57	5	8	2	294	392	403	795	109	322	11	13	356	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	129	119	36	8	3	0	6	25	1	0	1	303	341	420	761	118	375	19	5	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	71	63	13	2	0	0	8	10	0	0	0	206	296	238	534	32	245	14	11	255	58	-4	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2020	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	96	80	24	2	0	0	10	10	4	1	0	300	404	325	729	25	333	10	10	337	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	37	32	4	0	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	125	200	125	325		182	27	8	154	-9	-5	+0	-1	+6	+1	0.1
2021	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	393	336	99	17	6	11	49	72	5	2	1	295	392	479	871	185	344	18	12	384	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	140	121	35	8	0	2	16	9	3	1	0	289	386	405	791	116	300	6	11	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	253	223	49	12	0	1	25	47	2	1	1	220	304	287	591	67	270	19	10	273	70	-9	-0	-3	+3	+5	-0.4
2022	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	292	256	83	16	3	4	33	30	1	0	0	324	403	457	860	133	353	10	11	383	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	232	193	53	7	0	2	34	20	2	1	1	275	389	342	731	67	293	9	15	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	213	183	43	7	0	4	25	35	2	1	2	235	333	339	672	104	267	16	12	306	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	206	178	49	6	0	2	26	24	0	3	0	275	368	343	710	67	305	12	13	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	168	142	38	3	0	2	26	17	0	4	3	268	381	331	712	63	293	10	15	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	505	454	130	28	2	18	44	90	1	15	4	286	350	476	826	189	319	18	9	361	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	164	134	28	1	0	2	21	25	4	5	0	209	333	261	595	52	234	15	13	278	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	499	438	126	22	4	12	53	71	4	7	3	288	370	438	808	151	318	14	11	359	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	361	318	66	14	0	1	36	67	2	1	1	208	292	261	553	53	257	19	10	257	60	-17	-0	-5	+9	+8	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	129	118	18	3	0	0	10	28	0	1	0	153	219	178	397	25	191	22	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	25	20	5	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	1	250	400	250	650		335	20	20	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	120	107	22	5	0	0	9	32	2	3	0	206	280	252	532	47	287	27	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	173	163	38	5	0	1	10	45	0	0	2	233	277	282	560	49	316	26	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	305	281	80	14	1	9	15	44	0	4	2	285	321	438	759	153	297	14	5	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	296	264	50	9	1	4	25	67	3	2	1	189	267	277	544	87	235	23	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	141	121	22	6	0	2	17	33	1	1	0	182	288	281	569	99	212	23	12	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	31	27	8	1	1	1	4	6	0	0	0	296	387	519	906	222	324	19	13	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	498	450	108	24	1	4	35	72	5	8	2	240	302	324	626	84	268	14	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	71	63	13	2	0	0	8	10	0	0	0	206	296	238	534	32	245	14	11	255	58	-4	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	37	32	4	0	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	125	200	125	325		182	27	8	155	-9	-5	+0	-1	+6	+1	0.1
2021	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	393	356	84	15	6	8	29	87	5	2	1	236	303	379	682	143	286	22	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	253	223	49	12	0	1	25	47	2	1	1	220	304	287	591	67	270	19	10	272	70	-9	-0	-3	+3	+5	-0.4
2022	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	292	267	77	13	3	3	22	36	1	0	0	288	345	393	738	105	318	12	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	213	192	38	5	0	3	16	42	2	1	2	198	267	271	537	73	228	20	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	505	473	112	22	2	13	26	112	1	15	4	237	278	374	652	137	278	22	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	499	459	110	18	4	8	32	85	4	7	3	240	295	349	644	109	273	17	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	129	118	18	3	0	0	10	28	0	1	0	153	219	178	397	25	198	22	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	129	113	20	4	0	0	15	20	0	1	0	177	273	212	486	35	213	16	12	233	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	145	127	27	5	0	0	14	37	2	3	1	213	301	252	553	39	300	26	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	145	121	30	6	0	0	20	27	2	3	1	248	364	298	661	50	319	19	14	309	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	478	444	118	19	1	10	25	89	0	4	4	266	305	381	686	115	310	19	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	478	429	130	23	1	11	40	64	0	4	4	303	362	438	801	135	333	13	8	351	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	509	95	20	1	8	55	133	5	7	2	187	272	277	549	90	234	23	10	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	576	478	115	22	3	9	86	92	5	7	2	241	362	356	718	115	278	16	15	328	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	658	593	144	31	2	6	48	97	6	8	3	243	306	332	638	89	277	15	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	658	566	168	35	5	7	75	87	6	8	3	297	385	413	798	117	335	13	11	355	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	167	142	31	5	0	0	19	24	4	1	0	218	327	254	581	35	258	14	11	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	167	143	37	4	0	0	18	20	4	1	0	259	358	287	644	28	296	12	11	302	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	570	514	117	19	8	11	43	128	8	3	1	228	297	360	657	132	280	22	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	570	489	138	25	6	13	68	91	8	3	1	282	379	438	816	155	322	16	12	364	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	777	696	179	35	5	5	68	118	5	2	2	257	328	343	671	86	299	15	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	777	672	185	35	3	7	92	97	5	2	2	275	367	368	734	92	309	12	12	333	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	419	381	73	10	0	5	31	83	2	4	2	192	256	257	513	66	229	20	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	419	361	92	13	0	6	51	59	2	4	2	255	350	341	691	86	287	14	12	316	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL MLE	Criollos de Caguas	—	168	142	38	3	0	2	26	17	0	4	3	268	381	331	712	63	293	10	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL RAW	Criollos de Caguas	—	168	142	38	3	0	2	26	17	0	4	3	268	381	331	712	63	293	10	15	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	669	620	150	30	3	17	34	148	5	20	4	242	287	382	669	140	287	22	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	669	588	158	29	2	20	65	115	5	20	4	269	346	427	773	158	299	17	10	341	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	499	459	110	18	4	8	32	85	4	7	3	240	295	349	644	109	276	17	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	499	438	126	22	4	12	53	71	4	7	3	288	370	438	808	151	318	14	11	359	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	129	118	18	3	0	0	10	28	0	1	0	153	219	178	397	25	191	22	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	145	128	27	5	0	0	14	37	2	3	1	211	301	250	551	39	295	26	10	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	478	450	118	19	1	10	25	89	0	4	4	262	305	376	680	113	304	19	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	511	95	20	1	8	55	133	5	7	2	186	272	276	548	90	228	23	10	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	658	599	144	31	2	6	48	97	6	8	3	240	306	329	635	88	271	15	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	167	142	31	5	0	0	19	24	4	1	0	218	327	254	581	35	245	14	11	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	570	514	117	19	8	11	43	128	8	3	1	228	297	360	657	132	277	22	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	777	698	179	35	5	5	68	118	5	2	2	256	328	342	670	86	296	15	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	419	383	73	10	0	5	31	83	2	4	2	191	256	256	512	65	228	20	7	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	669	625	150	30	3	17	34	148	5	20	4	240	287	379	666	139	278	22	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	499	460	110	18	4	8	32	85	4	7	3	239	295	348	643	109	273	17	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	669	625	150	30	3	17	34	148	5	20	4	240	287	379	666	139	278	22	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	499	460	110	18	4	8	32	85	4	7	3	239	295	348	643	109	273	17	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	COL	10%	493	455	115	21	3	12	32	96	3	9	3	254	308	395	702	140	296	19	6	311	97	-2	+1	-0	+2	+11	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	COL	10%	24	22	6	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	268	320	426	746	158	310	21	8	329	97	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	COL	6%	355	328	80	14	2	8	22	72	2	3	1	246	298	375	673	129	289	20	6	299	89	-5	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	COL	6%	20	19	5	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	259	310	404	714	146	303	20	5	316	89	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	381	337	71	15	0	2	37	71	2	1	1	211	293	273	566	62	258	19	10	260	70	-17	-0	-5	+10	+8	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	121	26	0	3	63	121	3	2	2	210	291	271	563	61	259	19	10	260	70	-30	-0	-9	+16	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5848	5292	1235	222	27	86	442	1105	45	71	27	233	298	334	632	101	277	19	8	272	70	-23	+0	-10	+12	+21	-0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	138	25	3	10	49	123	5	8	3	235	299	338	638	104	278	19	8	272	70	-16	+0	-7	+8	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 499 PAwOBA .351 → .285 (−66)K% 14.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.23%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	17.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.02%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.51%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.71%
Singles /BIP	23.98%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.013	×0.942	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	5.99%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.013	×0.942	4.75%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.013	×0.942	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	3.27%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .351 → .285; ISO .151 → .114; BABIP .318 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 505 PAwOBA .353 → .284 (−69)K% 17.8% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.82%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.32%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.14%
HBP% /PA	0.20%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.18%
Singles /BIP	22.53%	÷0.959	×0.930	×0.987	×0.952	20.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.987	×0.952	6.14%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.987	×0.952	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	4.95%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×0.952	3.49%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .353 → .284; ISO .189 → .143; BABIP .319 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 213 PAwOBA .298 → .240 (−57)K% 16.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.43%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.80%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.37%
HBP% /PA	0.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.86%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.003	×0.972	19.30%
Doubles /BIP	4.73%	÷1.117	×0.830	×1.003	×0.972	3.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.105	×0.970	×1.003	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.70%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.79%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .298 → .240; ISO .104 → .074; BABIP .267 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 292 PAwOBA .376 → .322 (−53)K% 10.3% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.27%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	12.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.30%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.72%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.32%
Singles /BIP	26.55%	÷0.995	×0.930	×1.022	×0.982	24.89%
Doubles /BIP	7.08%	÷1.088	×0.830	×1.022	×0.982	5.42%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.022	×0.982	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	1.77%	÷1.075	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .376 → .322; ISO .133 → .106; BABIP .353 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 393 PAwOBA .375 → .302 (−73)K% 18.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.32%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	22.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.70%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.40%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.19%
Singles /BIP	24.62%	÷1.156	×0.930	×1.036	×0.992	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	6.44%	÷1.018	×0.830	×1.036	×0.992	5.39%
Triples /BIP	2.27%	÷0.956	×0.920	×1.036	×0.992	2.25%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.941	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.07%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 131, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 99, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .375 → .302; ISO .185 → .155; BABIP .344 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATennessee Smokies · 498 PAwOBA .346 → .284 (−62)K% 11.4% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.45%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	14.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.84%	÷1.047	×0.680	—	×0.988	6.96%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.988	0.83%
Singles /BIP	24.93%	÷1.051	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	20.48%
Doubles /BIP	7.12%	÷0.977	×0.910	×0.950	×0.988	6.23%
Triples /BIP	0.27%	÷0.957	×0.880	×0.950	×0.988	0.24%
Home runs /BIP	1.64%	÷1.142	×0.800	—	×0.988	1.14%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 110, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .284; ISO .109 → .093; BABIP .322 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIowa Cubs · 31 PAwOBA .422 → .360 (−62)K% 16.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.13%	÷1.025	×1.290	—	—	20.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.13%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.018	12.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.993	×0.900	—	×1.018	23.07%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.014	×0.810	—	×1.018	4.07%
Triples /BIP	5.00%	÷1.029	×0.810	—	×1.018	4.01%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.78%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 106, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .422 → .360; ISO .240 → .196; BABIP .368 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AATennessee Smokies · 296 PAwOBA .293 → .250 (−43)K% 18.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.24%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.16%	÷0.982	×0.680	—	×0.998	8.41%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.85%
Singles /BIP	19.90%	÷0.990	×0.920	×0.982	×0.998	18.13%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷0.966	×0.910	×0.982	×0.998	4.71%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.128	×0.880	×0.982	×0.998	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	2.55%	÷0.947	×0.800	—	×0.998	2.15%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 98, 2B 93, 3B 126, K 95, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .293 → .250; ISO .108 → .096; BABIP .259 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jeff Huson'88-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,126 PA	3.2	2,126	8	64	229*	298*	304*	+11	-12	-2.0	0.0
/162	664	2	20	+3.5	-3.6	-0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	367	2	2	222	300	291	+1	-2	-0.2	-0.2
/162	664	4	3	+2.4	-2.9	-0.4	pk7: -0
#3Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#4Steve Jeltz'83-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,041 PA	3.1	2,041	5	18	209*	308*	287*	+19	-7	-0.9	-0.5
/162	664	2	6	+6.1	-2.1	-0.3	pk7: -0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Vic Harris'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	13	36	215*	286*	325*	+4	-7	-1.9	-1.1
/162	664	5	13	+1.5	-2.7	-0.7	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Vimael Machín (OGILVIE)	33	60	55	50	45	252/305/391	139	296	6	4	19%	6%	97	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
●Denard Span 2018 · MLB	34	56→64	47→50	49→55	53	273/332/416	143	294	13	13	12%	8%	112	+2.2	260/334/416	156	291	14	11	15%	9%	112	+2.2	259/344/418	159	294	14	11	16%	10%	117	+2.1
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Kolten Wong 2024 · MLB	33	47→57	48→50	49→55	50	236/312/381	145	271	15	14	19%	8%	97	+1.1	224/292/346	122	271	13	11	22%	7%	81	-0.1	199/253/270	71	252	6	8	23%	5%	47	-0.5
✕Rob Brantly 2022 · MLB	33	48→58	44→50	49→30	46	237/304/353	117	273	12	5	18%	6%	88	+0.4	223/289/315	92	269	7	5	19%	5%	74	-0.6	211/277/285	74	257	5	1	19%	5%	60	-0.5
✕Timo Perez 2008 · MLB	33	53→60	46→50	46→50	47	260/298/395	135	274	12	10	11%	5%	94	+0.9	250/296/373	123	265	12	15	11%	6%	88	+0.5	243/292/355	112	257	11	16	10%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Eddy Alvarez 2023 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	47→55	44	246/327/389	143	329	14	11	28%	7%	105	+1.7	214/293/350	136	282	14	20	28%	8%	84	+0.1	188/271/315	127	244	14	25	28%	8%	66	-0.6
✕Alejandro De Aza 2017 · MLB	33	49→59	46→50	48→55	48	239/311/378	139	299	13	12	24%	8%	95	+1.0	230/295/350	120	278	11	10	21%	7%	83	+0.1	229/290/342	113	276	9	10	20%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Rafael Ortega 2023 · MLB	32	50→55	48→55	48→55	54	248/326/390	142	292	16	18	20%	10%	103	+1.6	217/303/341	124	268	13	21	22%	11%	84	+0.2	200/296/311	111	248	11	26	23%	12%	74	-0.4
✕Dioner Navarro 2016 · MLB	32	52→61	49→50	47→45	51	262/315/401	140	284	17	4	15%	7%	102	+1.5	227/287/357	130	268	14	5	20%	7%	82	-0.0	195/261/292	97	238	9	1	21%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Greg Dobbs 2012 · MLB	34	51→58	46→55	46→50	44	252/292/382	130	294	14	4	20%	5%	89	+0.5	251/290/356	105	294	10	5	18%	5%	82	-0.0	245/281/330	85	288	7	4	17%	4%	72	-0.3
✕Jason Kipnis 2020 · MLB	33	45→55	51→55	48→55	51	232/299/393	161	256	19	8	18%	8%	95	+0.9	233/308/390	157	286	18	7	24%	9%	97	+1.1	221/310/373	152	292	16	3	28%	10%	93	+0.3
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3
✕Jesse Castillo 2016 · AAA	33	56→61	43→45	50	52	269/329/383	114	307	10	15	16%	8%	103	+1.5	260/317/379	119	305	12	13	18%	8%	97	+1.1	260/318/374	114	305	13	12	18%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Adam Jones 2019 · MLB	33	54→56	50→60	47→50	44	273/309/422	150	301	18	5	16%	4%	105	+1.7	258/307/410	152	293	18	6	18%	6%	101	+1.4	252/304/404	152	286	19	2	19%	5%	100	+1.2
✕Gabe Kapler 2008 · MLB	33	51→60	45→55	47→55	52	249/316/378	129	276	12	8	15%	8%	97	+1.1	258/321/428	170	287	18	10	17%	8%	111	+2.1	254/321/423	170	281	17	9	16%	8%	110	+0.7
✕Nick Hundley 2017 · MLB	33	51→45	49→55	42→40	46	257/304/407	150	304	16	5	21%	6%	99	+1.3	241/284/407	166	304	19	4	26%	6%	93	+0.8	229/267/395	166	295	19	2	29%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Jose Castillo 2014 · AAA	33	55→57	49→50	50	44	274/302/417	143	287	17	11	12%	4%	101	+1.4	247/272/346	99	275	10	9	14%	3%	72	-0.7	242/264/313	71	273	7	7	14%	2%	59	-0.9
✕Hector Garanzuay 2014 · AAA	33	52→61	44→45	42→50	46	255/298/372	117	291	11	8	17%	6%	88	+0.5	251/296/340	89	284	8	6	14%	6%	80	-0.1	248/296/317	69	279	6	3	13%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Jace Peterson 2023 · MLB	33	48→57	48→50	56→55	53	237/323/383	145	302	15	18	26%	11%	101	+1.4	217/300/331	114	276	12	17	24%	10%	81	-0.1	203/293/293	90	259	9	21	23%	10%	71	-0.6

Vimael Machín

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps