Zack Gelof
2B Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | MLBOakland Athle… | 547 | .211/.273/.362 | 17 | 25 | 80 | 0.7 | |
| 2025 | 25 | AAAOAK | 213 | .256/.376/.517 | 12 | 12 | 87 | — | .205/.300/.368 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBOAK | 101 | .174/.232/.272 | 2 | 1 | 37 | -0.3 | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAAOAK | 70 | .333/.486/.667 | 5 | 3 | 151 | — | .293/.414/.552 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBOAK | 435 | .256/.322/.475 | 22 | 16 | 119 | 2.4 | |
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBOAK | 370 | .234/.306/.418 | 15 | 16 | 100 | 1.2 | |
| 2028PROJ98% MLB | 28 | MLBOAK | 357 | .233/.304/.413 | 14 | 14 | 98 | 1.0 | |
| 2029PROJ98% MLB | 29 | MLBOAK | 344 | .230/.301/.406 | 13 | 12 | 95 | 0.8 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 30 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 145 | 124 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 298 | 396 | 548 | 944 | 250 | 366 | 25 | 13 | 410 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 38 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 316 | 714 | 1.030 | 457 | 211 | 29 | 8 | 434 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 402 | 354 | 96 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 110 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 271 | 357 | 438 | 794 | 167 | 358 | 27 | 12 | 354 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 89 | 79 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 228 | 307 | 380 | 687 | 152 | 263 | 22 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 300 | 270 | 72 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 26 | 82 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 267 | 338 | 504 | 841 | 237 | 331 | 27 | 9 | 368 | 138 | +14 | +2 | +3 | +2 | +6 | 2.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 308 | 263 | 80 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 86 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 304 | 402 | 529 | 930 | 224 | 410 | 28 | 13 | 407 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 547 | 497 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 188 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 211 | 273 | 362 | 635 | 151 | 296 | 34 | 7 | 281 | 80 | -13 | +4 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Athletics | — | 101 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 174 | 232 | 272 | 504 | 98 | 311 | 46 | 7 | 226 | 37 | -8 | -1 | +2 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 213 | 176 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 34 | 54 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 256 | 376 | 517 | 893 | 261 | 292 | 25 | 16 | 387 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Athletics | — | 435 | 394 | 101 | 16 | 2 | 22 | 31 | 107 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 256 | 322 | 475 | 796 | 218 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 348 | 119 | +10 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +9 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 70 | 54 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 333 | 486 | 667 | 1.152 | 333 | 325 | 13 | 20 | 493 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1383 | 1253 | 294 | 59 | 5 | 55 | 102 | 423 | 14 | 56 | 10 | 235 | 299 | 421 | 721 | 187 | 306 | 31 | 7 | 317 | 101 | +1 | +7 | +7 | +7 | +30 | 5.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 145 | 130 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 238 | 312 | 415 | 728 | 177 | 329 | 33 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 38 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 237 | 472 | 709 | 278 | 182 | 34 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 402 | 366 | 83 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 135 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 227 | 294 | 380 | 674 | 153 | 317 | 34 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 300 | 271 | 72 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 25 | 82 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 266 | 334 | 509 | 844 | 244 | 331 | 27 | 8 | 373 | 138 | +14 | +2 | +3 | +2 | +6 | 2.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 308 | 277 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 101 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 256 | 327 | 419 | 746 | 162 | 369 | 33 | 9 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 547 | 497 | 106 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 188 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 213 | 275 | 374 | 649 | 161 | 296 | 34 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -13 | +4 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 101 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 174 | 232 | 272 | 504 | 98 | 311 | 46 | 7 | 222 | 37 | -8 | -1 | +2 | +1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 213 | 185 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 63 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 205 | 300 | 368 | 668 | 162 | 256 | 30 | 12 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 435 | 394 | 99 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 31 | 107 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 251 | 317 | 472 | 789 | 221 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 344 | 119 | +10 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +9 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 70 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 293 | 414 | 552 | 966 | 259 | 285 | 16 | 14 | 392 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 145 | 130 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 238 | 312 | 415 | 728 | 177 | 333 | 33 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 145 | 124 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 298 | 396 | 548 | 944 | 250 | 366 | 25 | 13 | 410 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 529 | 480 | 107 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 178 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 223 | 292 | 385 | 678 | 163 | 309 | 34 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 529 | 468 | 123 | 20 | 2 | 21 | 57 | 141 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 263 | 345 | 449 | 794 | 186 | 331 | 27 | 11 | 352 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 608 | 548 | 144 | 36 | 2 | 24 | 52 | 183 | 5 | 34 | 7 | 263 | 332 | 467 | 799 | 204 | 350 | 30 | 9 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 608 | 533 | 152 | 41 | 2 | 26 | 67 | 168 | 5 | 34 | 7 | 285 | 370 | 516 | 886 | 231 | 370 | 28 | 11 | 387 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 547 | 497 | 106 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 188 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 213 | 275 | 374 | 649 | 161 | 295 | 34 | 7 | 286 | 80 | -13 | +4 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB RAW | Oakland Athletics | — | 547 | 497 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 188 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 211 | 273 | 362 | 635 | 151 | 296 | 34 | 7 | 281 | 80 | -13 | +4 | +2 | +2 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 277 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 109 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 195 | 278 | 336 | 614 | 141 | 276 | 35 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 314 | 268 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 100 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 228 | 330 | 433 | 763 | 205 | 297 | 32 | 13 | 335 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 452 | 115 | 17 | 2 | 26 | 41 | 118 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 254 | 329 | 473 | 802 | 219 | 289 | 23 | 8 | 351 | 124 | +14 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 448 | 119 | 19 | 2 | 27 | 45 | 116 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 266 | 345 | 498 | 842 | 232 | 302 | 23 | 9 | 368 | 124 | +14 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 3.0 |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 145 | 130 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 238 | 312 | 415 | 728 | 177 | 329 | 33 | 9 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 529 | 477 | 107 | 17 | 2 | 19 | 45 | 178 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 224 | 292 | 388 | 680 | 164 | 305 | 34 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 608 | 546 | 144 | 36 | 2 | 24 | 52 | 183 | 5 | 34 | 7 | 264 | 332 | 469 | 801 | 205 | 350 | 30 | 9 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 547 | 500 | 106 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 188 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 212 | 275 | 372 | 647 | 160 | 296 | 34 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 279 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 109 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 194 | 278 | 333 | 612 | 140 | 274 | 35 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 450 | 115 | 17 | 2 | 26 | 41 | 118 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 256 | 329 | 476 | 804 | 220 | 296 | 23 | 8 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 547 | 500 | 106 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 188 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 212 | 275 | 372 | 647 | 160 | 296 | 34 | 7 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 314 | 279 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 109 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 194 | 278 | 333 | 612 | 140 | 274 | 35 | 10 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 450 | 115 | 17 | 2 | 26 | 41 | 118 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 256 | 329 | 476 | 804 | 220 | 296 | 23 | 8 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 100% | 459 | 413 | 96 | 15 | 2 | 19 | 37 | 125 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 230 | 302 | 412 | 714 | 182 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 316 | 100 | -0 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 1.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 100% | 370 | 332 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 101 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 234 | 306 | 418 | 724 | 183 | 287 | 27 | 8 | 320 | 100 | -0 | +2 | +1 | +1 | +8 | 1.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 98% | 364 | 328 | 74 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 100 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 228 | 300 | 407 | 707 | 179 | 277 | 27 | 8 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 98% | 351 | 316 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 98 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 225 | 297 | 400 | 697 | 175 | 276 | 28 | 8 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 98% | 338 | 304 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 27 | 95 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 222 | 293 | 392 | 685 | 170 | 273 | 28 | 8 | 304 | 92 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB MLE | OAK | 98% | 319 | 287 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 91 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 288 | 381 | 669 | 164 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB MLE | OAK | 98% | 295 | 267 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 86 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 281 | 367 | 649 | 156 | 264 | 29 | 8 | 289 | 82 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 98% | 357 | 321 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 14 | 29 | 98 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 233 | 304 | 413 | 717 | 180 | 286 | 27 | 8 | 317 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 98% | 344 | 309 | 71 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 96 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 230 | 301 | 406 | 707 | 176 | 284 | 28 | 8 | 313 | 95 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 98% | 331 | 298 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 93 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 226 | 297 | 398 | 695 | 171 | 281 | 28 | 8 | 308 | 92 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB CTX | OAK | 98% | 313 | 282 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 89 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 292 | 387 | 679 | 165 | 277 | 28 | 8 | 302 | 88 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB CTX | OAK | 98% | 289 | 262 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 84 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 285 | 372 | 657 | 157 | 272 | 29 | 8 | 293 | 82 | -6 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3017 | 2725 | 627 | 113 | 10 | 117 | 231 | 883 | 33 | 100 | 21 | 230 | 298 | 408 | 706 | 178 | 293 | 29 | 8 | 312 | 96 | -16 | +12 | +0 | +13 | +65 | 7.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 134 | 24 | 2 | 25 | 50 | 190 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 228 | 297 | 404 | 700 | 175 | 291 | 29 | 8 | 312 | 96 | -3 | +2 | +0 | +3 | +14 | 1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4685 | 4218 | 964 | 168 | 15 | 182 | 383 | 1395 | 45 | 176 | 34 | 229 | 300 | 405 | 705 | 176 | 293 | 30 | 8 | 310 | 96 | -16 | +14 | +1 | +14 | +74 | 8.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 133 | 23 | 2 | 25 | 53 | 194 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 227 | 298 | 402 | 699 | 174 | 293 | 30 | 8 | 310 | 96 | -3 | +3 | +0 | +3 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 70 PAwOBA .481 → .392 (−88)K% 12.9% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 13.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 20.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 7.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .481 → .392; ISO .333 → .255; BABIP .325 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 213 PAwOBA .382 → .297 (−85)K% 25.4% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.35% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.96% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.85% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×1.018 | 17.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.018 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .382 → .297; ISO .261 → .178; BABIP .292 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 308 PAwOBA .396 → .325 (−71)K% 27.9% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.92% | ÷1.017 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.99% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.99% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×1.048 | 25.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.86% | ÷1.124 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.048 | 9.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.133 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.048 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.78% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .396 → .325; ISO .224 → .170; BABIP .410 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 402 PAwOBA .346 → .293 (−53)K% 27.4% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.36% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.64% | ÷1.067 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 23.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.007 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.931 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×1.027 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 5.52% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 113, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .346 → .293; ISO .167 → .157; BABIP .358 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 38 PAwOBA .420 → .300 (−121)K% 28.9% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.95% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 12.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 14.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .420 → .300; ISO .457 → .299; BABIP .211 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AStockton Ports · 145 PAwOBA .402 → .310 (−92)K% 24.8% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | — | 22.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.981 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | — | 7.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.902 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | — | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.165 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .402 → .310; ISO .250 → .178; BABIP .366 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .