Kyle Datres
3B Columbus Clippers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/AACOL | 412 | .249/.372/.415 | 13 | 24 | 80 | — | .211/.303/.335 |
| 2024 | 28 | AACOL | 268 | .226/.345/.394 | 9 | 13 | 57 | — | .176/.262/.297 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAACLE | 135 | .204/.318/.292 | 2 | 1 | 36 | — | .168/.250/.218 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 31 | MLBCLE | 10 | .204/.280/.322 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 32 | MLBCLE | 26 | .201/.276/.314 | 1 | 0 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 379 | 315 | 90 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 81 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 286 | 398 | 540 | 938 | 254 | 341 | 21 | 12 | 406 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Spokane Indians | — | 236 | 189 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 52 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 222 | 364 | 423 | 787 | 201 | 248 | 22 | 15 | 349 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 308 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 91 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 260 | 354 | 455 | 809 | 195 | 317 | 26 | 10 | 358 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 32 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 222 | 323 | 370 | 693 | 148 | 429 | 44 | 12 | 301 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 380 | 315 | 79 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 90 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 251 | 376 | 419 | 795 | 168 | 308 | 24 | 14 | 359 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 268 | 226 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 71 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 345 | 394 | 738 | 168 | 286 | 26 | 14 | 335 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 135 | 113 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 318 | 292 | 610 | 88 | 269 | 27 | 13 | 281 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 379 | 336 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 112 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 193 | 275 | 351 | 627 | 158 | 250 | 30 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 236 | 201 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 174 | 281 | 308 | 590 | 134 | 219 | 31 | 10 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 319 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 216 | 292 | 357 | 649 | 141 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 32 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 143 | 226 | 214 | 440 | 71 | 379 | 56 | 9 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 380 | 333 | 72 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 105 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 216 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 129 | 279 | 28 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 268 | 239 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 88 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 176 | 262 | 297 | 559 | 121 | 240 | 33 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 135 | 119 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 168 | 250 | 218 | 468 | 50 | 239 | 33 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 379 | 336 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 112 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 193 | 275 | 351 | 627 | 158 | 256 | 30 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 379 | 315 | 90 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 81 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 286 | 398 | 540 | 938 | 254 | 341 | 21 | 12 | 406 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 236 | 201 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 174 | 281 | 308 | 590 | 134 | 228 | 31 | 10 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ RAW | Spokane Indians | — | 236 | 189 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 52 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 222 | 364 | 423 | 787 | 201 | 248 | 22 | 15 | 349 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 319 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 216 | 292 | 357 | 649 | 141 | 289 | 31 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA RAW | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 308 | 80 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 91 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 260 | 354 | 455 | 809 | 195 | 317 | 26 | 10 | 358 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 412 | 362 | 78 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 122 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 215 | 306 | 345 | 651 | 130 | 292 | 30 | 9 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 412 | 342 | 85 | 10 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 104 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 249 | 372 | 415 | 787 | 167 | 316 | 25 | 14 | 354 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 268 | 239 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 88 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 176 | 262 | 297 | 559 | 121 | 241 | 33 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA RAW | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 268 | 226 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 71 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 226 | 345 | 394 | 738 | 168 | 286 | 26 | 14 | 335 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 135 | 119 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 168 | 250 | 218 | 468 | 50 | 250 | 33 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 135 | 113 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 318 | 292 | 610 | 88 | 269 | 27 | 13 | 281 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 379 | 338 | 65 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 26 | 112 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 192 | 275 | 349 | 625 | 157 | 250 | 30 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ MLE | Spokane Indians | — | 236 | 204 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 73 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 172 | 281 | 304 | 585 | 132 | 219 | 31 | 10 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 356 | 319 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 110 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 216 | 292 | 357 | 649 | 141 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 412 | 362 | 78 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 122 | 10 | 24 | 4 | 215 | 306 | 345 | 651 | 130 | 287 | 30 | 9 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 268 | 238 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 88 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 176 | 262 | 298 | 560 | 122 | 240 | 33 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 135 | 121 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 250 | 215 | 465 | 50 | 239 | 33 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 268 | 238 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 88 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 176 | 262 | 298 | 560 | 122 | 240 | 33 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 135 | 121 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 165 | 250 | 215 | 465 | 50 | 239 | 33 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB MLE | CLE | 10% | 200 | 179 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 280 | 323 | 603 | 119 | 269 | 28 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB CTX | CLE | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 280 | 322 | 602 | 118 | 269 | 30 | 10 | 273 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 32 | MLB MLE | CLE | 27% | 95 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 276 | 314 | 590 | 114 | 266 | 28 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -4 | +0 | -4 | +0 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB CTX | CLE | 27% | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 276 | 314 | 590 | 113 | 266 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 26 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 69 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 125 | 25 | 0 | 25 | 50 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 269 | 375 | 644 | 167 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 268 | 69 | -25 | +0 | -24 | +2 | +14 | -3.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1986 | 1756 | 345 | 63 | 8 | 49 | 164 | 607 | 45 | 99 | 21 | 196 | 282 | 325 | 607 | 129 | 265 | 31 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -7 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +4 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 114 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 199 | 15 | 32 | 7 | 198 | 285 | 329 | 613 | 130 | 268 | 31 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -24 | +1 | -11 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 135 PAwOBA .281 → .221 (−60)K% 26.7% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×1.011 | ×0.982 | 20.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.064 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×0.982 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.093 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 108, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .281 → .221; ISO .088 → .061; BABIP .269 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 268 PAwOBA .327 → .252 (−75)K% 26.5% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.49% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.81% | ÷1.066 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.968 | 17.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.10% | ÷1.102 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.968 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.81% | ÷0.916 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 4.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 108, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .327 → .252; ISO .168 → .133; BABIP .286 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 380 PAwOBA .350 → .291 (−58)K% 23.7% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷1.052 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.42% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.970 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 22.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.034 | ×0.978 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.78% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 113, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .350 → .291; ISO .168 → .137; BABIP .308 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 32 PAwOBA .304 → .230 (−74)K% 43.8% → 55.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 43.75% | ÷0.947 | ×1.200 | — | — | 55.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 28.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 13.02% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.062 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .304 → .230; ISO .148 → .110; BABIP .429 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAHartford Yard Goats · 356 PAwOBA .351 → .288 (−63)K% 25.6% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.56% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.11% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 21.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.017 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.91% | ÷0.992 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 5.37% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .351 → .288; ISO .195 → .151; BABIP .317 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Spokane Indians · 236 PAwOBA .347 → .264 (−84)K% 22.0% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.967 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.83% | ÷1.052 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 9.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.97% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.79% | ÷0.966 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 15.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.57% | ÷1.211 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 4.40% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .347 → .264; ISO .201 → .143; BABIP .248 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAsheville Tourists · 379 PAwOBA .395 → .269 (−126)K% 21.4% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.37% | ÷0.968 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷1.148 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 6.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 2.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.80% | ÷1.063 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.188 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.249 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 4.17% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 113, 2B 138, 3B 130, K 94, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .395 → .269; ISO .254 → .166; BABIP .341 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).