Brian Serven — OGILVIE

Brian ServenC Las Vegas Aviators

Age 31 R/R 6'0" / 207 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION236 act + 157 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .307 / .373

PA157

HR4

K%29

BB%9

BABIP299

ISO151

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT40

Whiff%

2214.1%

xwOBA

100.247

POWER35

Barrel%

102.4

Avg EV

1084.7

Bat Spd

4070.3

EYE55

Chase%

1239.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

2226.1

Platoon Splits2024 · 71 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-33

▶▶R

wOBA

142

262

▶▶R

ISO

044

075

▶▶R

BABIP

154

286

▶▶R

40.0%

26.1%

▶▶R

BB%

8.0%

6.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	143	136	21	5	0	1	4	32	1	0	3	154	184	213	398	59	192	22	3	170	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	143	133	27	7	0	1	7	22	1	0	3	203	248	278	526	75	234	15	5	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	199	174	37	10	1	1	14	37	6	3	4	213	294	299	593	86	261	19	7	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	199	168	47	14	1	1	20	29	6	3	4	280	376	393	769	113	329	15	10	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	337	300	60	17	2	5	14	104	6	1	1	200	250	320	570	120	276	31	4	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	337	291	78	22	3	12	23	68	6	1	1	268	334	488	822	220	301	20	7	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	2 teams	—	323	294	42	8	0	7	16	91	7	1	2	143	205	241	447	99	176	28	5	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	2 teams	—	323	288	62	15	1	11	22	74	7	1	2	215	287	389	676	174	248	23	7	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	296	276	45	10	1	10	11	86	6	1	0	163	212	315	527	152	192	29	4	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	AAA	2 teams	—	296	271	65	12	2	16	16	67	6	1	0	240	297	476	773	236	258	23	5	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	2 teams	—	301	267	50	6	1	8	26	63	4	0	0	187	269	307	576	120	212	21	9	257	55	-15	+0	+10	+5	+9	0.9
2022	27	MLB	2 teams	—	301	264	59	7	1	11	29	59	4	0	0	223	310	383	692	159	245	20	10	309	94	-2	+0	+10	+5	+9	2.3
2023	28	AAA	2 teams	—	185	176	23	4	0	3	6	84	1	0	0	131	164	205	368	74	220	45	3	160	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA	2 teams	—	185	174	33	6	0	5	8	61	1	0	0	190	230	310	540	121	255	33	4	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	—	230	204	44	10	0	3	22	77	3	0	0	216	301	309	610	93	331	33	10	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	2 teams	—	230	195	45	10	0	3	31	68	3	0	0	231	345	328	673	97	339	30	13	313	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	—	260	230	50	9	0	4	22	77	5	1	0	217	300	309	608	91	303	30	8	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	—	260	221	51	10	0	3	31	70	5	1	0	231	339	317	655	86	318	27	12	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	31	AAA	OAK	—	236	206	53	15	2	5	21	74	5	0	0	257	341	422	763	165	366	31	9	330	111	+3	+0	+0	+4	+7	1.4
YTD	31	AAA	OAK	—	236	198	61	18	2	7	29	57	5	0	0	308	409	525	935	217	391	24	12	405	168	+18	+0	+0	+4	+7	3.0
ROS	31	AAA	OAK	55%	157	139	31	7	1	4	14	46	3	1	0	222	307	373	680	151	301	29	9	298	86	-2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.5
ROS	31	MLB	OAK	55%	87	79	17	4	0	2	7	26	1	0	0	215	287	342	629	127	298	30	8	283	75	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
FULL	31	AAA	OAK	—	323	285	70	19	2	7	28	100	6	0	0	246	326	400	726	154	346	31	9	317	101	+0	+0	+0	+6	+9	1.6
TOT	31	AAA	OAK	—	393	345	84	22	3	9	35	120	8	1	0	243	327	403	730	159	339	31	9	317	101	+0	+0	+0	+7	+11	1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	32	MLB	OAK	54%	252	225	48	11	1	5	21	75	4	1	0	213	292	338	630	124	292	30	8	289	79	-6	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.3
2028	33	MLB	OAK	53%	217	194	40	9	1	4	18	66	3	0	0	206	284	325	608	119	287	30	8	282	74	-6	+0	-4	+4	+6	-0.0
2027	32	MLB	OAK	54%	135	121	26	6	1	3	11	40	2	0	0	215	291	355	646	140	290	30	8	274	68	-5	+0	-2	+2	+4	-0.0
2028	33	MLB	OAK	53%	114	101	21	5	0	2	10	35	2	0	0	208	292	317	609	109	285	31	9	267	63	-5	+0	-2	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	635	574	115	24	2	13	46	177	9	0	0	200	270	317	587	117	264	28	7	260	57	-31	+0	+9	+19	+18	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	118	25	2	13	47	181	9	0	0	201	270	316	587	116	264	28	7	260	57	-32	+0	+9	+19	+18	1.5
Career	—			—	2900	2615	491	106	8	55	188	838	49	9	10	188	255	297	553	110	249	29	6	244	45	-179	-2	+6	+52	+82	-4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	110	24	2	12	42	188	11	2	2	188	255	297	552	109	250	29	6	244	45	-40	-0	+1	+12	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	21	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	143	133	27	7	0	1	7	22	1	0	3	203	248	278	526	75	234	15	5	237	40	-10	-1	—	—	+4	-0.7
2017	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	199	168	47	14	1	1	20	29	6	3	4	280	376	393	769	113	329	15	10	342	120	+5	-1	—	—	+6	0.9
2018	23	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	337	291	78	22	3	12	23	68	6	1	1	268	334	488	822	220	301	20	7	343	121	+8	-0	—	—	+10	1.8
2019	24	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	276	242	49	12	0	9	22	61	7	1	2	202	288	364	651	161	230	22	8	290	80	-6	-1	—	—	+8	0.1
2019	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	47	46	13	3	1	2	0	13	0	0	0	283	283	522	804	239	344	28	0	340	118	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2021	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	276	252	63	12	2	16	16	61	6	1	0	250	310	504	814	254	266	22	6	353	128	+9	+0	—	—	+8	1.7
2021	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	20	19	2	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	105	105	105	211		154	30	0	90	-72	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	205	187	38	4	1	6	13	44	2	0	0	203	262	332	594	128	232	21	6	264	61	-9	+0	+10	+5	+6	1.3
2022	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	96	77	21	3	0	5	16	15	2	0	0	273	411	506	917	234	276	16	17	403	166	+7	+0	—	—	+3	1.0
2023	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	23	23	3	1	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	130	130	174	304	43	231	43	0	135	-39	-4	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.1
2023	28	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	162	151	30	5	0	5	8	51	1	0	0	199	244	331	575	132	258	31	5	255	53	-9	+0	—	—	+5	-0.4
2024	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	71	63	10	4	0	0	5	22	2	0	0	159	243	222	465	63	244	31	7	219	26	-6	+0	+1	+4	+2	0.1
2024	29	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	159	132	35	6	0	3	26	46	1	0	0	265	390	379	769	114	386	29	16	354	129	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	30	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	233	198	46	7	0	3	28	59	4	1	0	232	339	313	652	81	309	25	12	302	89	-3	+0	—	—	+7	0.4
2025	30	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	27	23	5	3	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	217	333	348	681	130	417	41	11	314	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	299	273	51	9	1	6	18	76	4	0	0	187	247	293	540	106	234	25	6	244	45	-19	+0	+12	+13	+8	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	631	14	1	202	272	322	+11	+16	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	14	1	202	272	322	+11.9	+17.0	0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brian Serven (OGILVIE)	31	40	35	45	55	243/327/403	159	339	9	1	31%	9%	101	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wynns 2022 · MLB	31	44→51	46→45	48→30	46	222/280/346	124	262	15	6	22%	6%	74	-0.1	240/303/354	114	301	12	5	23%	7%	85	+0.7	240/304/338	98	308	10	2	24%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	47→45	42→30	44	215/272/352	137	271	14	5	26%	7%	72	-0.2	218/293/379	161	275	18	6	26%	9%	88	+0.9	197/307/365	169	234	18	0	24%	13%	90	+0.3
✕Tony Cruz 2017 · MLB	30	46→38	42→45	42→40	45	226/279/328	102	284	9	5	23%	7%	68	-0.5	218/270/343	125	291	14	5	29%	6%	69	-0.4	214/267/333	119	287	14	0	30%	5%	63	-0.2
✕Koyie Hill 2010 · MLB	31	47→43	45	45→40	46	229/290/354	124	294	11	4	25%	8%	79	+0.3	211/265/307	96	282	8	5	26%	7%	56	-1.3	189/236/262	74	251	6	3	26%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Rob Johnson 2013 · MLB	31	42→52	43→45	47→50	46	208/268/316	109	251	11	8	22%	7%	61	-1.0	215/271/340	125	261	14	7	23%	7%	68	-0.5	197/255/313	115	239	13	0	23%	7%	53	-0.7
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2014 · MLB	31	38	41→45	44→40	41	193/249/287	94	253	10	3	27%	6%	46	-2.0	203/258/319	116	263	15	4	28%	6%	58	-1.2	192/250/303	111	246	16	1	29%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Andrew Knapp 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	47→45	44→40	42	197/265/331	134	270	16	4	32%	7%	64	-0.8	221/288/352	131	304	14	5	30%	7%	79	+0.3	224/294/348	124	309	13	3	30%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Bryan Holaday 2017 · MLB	29	46	45	43→40	41	229/275/350	121	280	12	5	23%	5%	72	-0.2	229/282/357	128	264	13	3	18%	6%	78	+0.2	223/289/353	130	256	14	2	19%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Chad Moeller 2006 · MLB	31	43	47→50	42→30	46	221/278/357	136	260	15	3	22%	7%	76	+0.0	210/267/325	115	262	12	3	24%	6%	63	-0.8	206/258/306	100	258	8	0	23%	5%	51	-0.5
✕Nevin Ashley 2016 · MLB	31	46→51	43→45	42→45	43	224/283/332	108	288	11	4	26%	6%	71	-0.3	228/294/355	127	301	14	6	28%	7%	82	+0.5	212/296/341	129	282	16	2	29%	8%	79	+0.1
✕Omir Santos 2012 · MLB	31	44→43	41→45	47→30	40	219/250/313	95	257	10	4	20%	4%	52	-1.6	221/250/313	92	288	7	4	25%	3%	51	-1.7	225/247/307	82	297	5	0	25%	2%	46	-0.7
✕Juan Centeno 2021 · MLB	31	47	41→45	48→40	46	226/281/321	95	269	8	7	19%	6%	67	-0.5	235/279/347	112	289	11	5	22%	5%	72	-0.2	231/273/332	101	294	9	3	24%	5%	62	-0.4
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	47→50	48→50	49→40	43	235/287/379	143	302	15	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	209/262/341	132	278	15	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	167/220/276	109	222	15	2	32%	6%	30	-1.3
✕Gerald Laird 2011 · MLB	31	47	42→50	47→50	50	226/292/333	107	260	9	7	17%	7%	76	+0.0	245/311/357	112	283	9	6	16%	8%	89	+1.0	268/338/369	101	310	6	3	14%	8%	97	+0.4
✕Pedro Severino 2023 · MLB	30	50→48	47→50	49→45	46	249/307/386	138	316	15	5	26%	7%	95	+1.4	225/282/357	132	285	15	11	26%	7%	77	+0.1	192/248/303	111	240	13	13	25%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	47→50	50→55	44	198/265/333	135	266	15	12	31%	8%	64	-0.8	203/276/336	133	297	16	11	35%	8%	70	-0.3	193/272/319	126	285	16	11	36%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	37	207/267/349	142	269	18	6	30%	4%	70	-0.3	215/276/333	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	69	-0.4	175/246/242	68	254	8	0	32%	6%	34	-0.6
✕Elias Díaz 2023 · MLB	32	41→51	48→50	42→45	49	209/270/346	137	236	16	2	20%	7%	69	-0.4	234/289/360	126	284	14	2	22%	7%	81	+0.4	242/293/380	138	290	16	0	22%	6%	85	+0.3
✕Humberto Sosa 2017 · AAA	31	46→49	44→50	47→45	42	228/274/332	103	287	13	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	229/274/377	148	278	19	6	24%	5%	79	+0.3	232/276/427	195	261	26	1	23%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Dustin Garneau 2019 · MLB	31	37	47→50	39→45	44	194/256/327	132	239	15	4	26%	6%	59	-1.1	204/282/367	163	265	19	4	29%	8%	81	+0.4	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2