Brian Serven

C Las Vegas Aviators
Age 32 R/R 6'0" / 207 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 1.036 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202429AAATOR159.265/.390/.3793076—.220/.308/.298
202429MLBTOR71.159/.243/.22200340.1
202530AAA/ADET260.231/.339/.3173153—.195/.276/.255
202631AAAOAK262.308/.407/.53890108—.260/.337/.429
202631MLBOAK85.175/.224/.37550650.5
2027PROJ45% MLB32MLBOAK100.214/.290/.35930790.2
2028PROJ53% MLB33MLBOAK91.207/.282/.3432073-0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.036First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$1M2031Ext$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2026
Bat Spd40
Barrel%25
Speed20
Avg EV13
xwOBA10
Form.213/.287/.352 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .208/.282/.350
CompsAustin Wynns (age 31) · Chad Wallach (age 32) · Guillermo Quiroz (age 32)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†79
AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .290 / .359
PA100
HR3
K%27
BB%8
BABIP270
ISO144
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: -0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +4.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026
CONTACT40
xAVG
100.188
POWER35
Barrel%
255.0
Avg EV
1386.3
Bat Spd
4070.3
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
2026.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%24%▲▲19% over 36 PA (60d) · proj 27%
BB%8%·8% over 36 PA (60d) · proj 8%
ISO.139·.125 over 32 AB (60d) · proj .142
BABIP.257·.125 over 24 BIP (60d) · proj .261
SLASH.213/.287/.352·proj .208/.282/.350
Platoon Splits2024 · 71 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
25
46
—
wRC+
-18
63
▶▶R
wOBA
142
262
▶▶R
ISO
044
075
▶▶R
BABIP
154
286
▶▶R
K%
40.0%
26.1%
▶▶R
BB%
8.0%
6.5%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2022
Service   1.036 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201621 ROKGrand Junction Rockies — 143133 27701 7221 03 203248278526 75234 155 237 0 — — — — — —
201722 AAsheville Tourists — 199168 471411 20296 34 280376393769 113329 1510 342 64 — — — — — —
201823 A+Lancaster JetHawks — 337291 7822312 23686 11 268334488822 220301 207 343 61 — — — — — —
201924 AAHartford Yard Goats — 276242 491209 22617 12 202288364651 161230 228 290 33 — — — — — —
201924 INTLSalt River Rafters — 4746 13312 0130 00 283283522804 239344 280 340 116 — — — — — —
202126 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes — 276252 6312216 16616 10 250310504814 254266 226 353 53 — — — — — —
202126 INTLTigres del Licey — 2019 2000 060 00 105105105211 154 300 90 -53 — — — — — —
202227 MLBColorado Rockies — 205187 38416 13442 00 203262332594 128232 216 264 56 -11 +0 +10 +5 +4 1.0
202227 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes — 9677 21305 16152 00 273411506917 234276 1617 403 105 — — — — — —
202328 MLBColorado Rockies — 2323 3100 0100 00 130130174304 43231 430 135 -26 -3 +0 +1 +3 +0 0.1
202328 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes — 162151 30505 8511 00 199244331575 132258 315 255 9 — — — — — —
202429 MLBToronto Blue Jays — 7163 10400 5222 00 159243222465 63244 317 219 34 -6 +0 +1 +4 +2 0.1
202429 AAABuffalo Bisons — 159132 35603 26461 00 265390379769 114386 2916 354 76 — — — — — —
202530 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 233198 46703 28594 10 232339313652 81309 2512 302 57 — — — — — —
202530 ALakeland Flying Tigers — 2723 5300 3111 00 217333348681 130417 4111 314 21 — — — — — —
202631 MLBAthletics — 8580 14105 4211 00 175224375599 200167 255 264 65 -4 +0 +0 +6 +2 0.5
202631 AAALas Vegas Aviators — 262221 682029 31686 00 308407538945 231399 2612 409 108 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 384353 6510111 22975 00 184242312554 127220 256 248 54 -21 +0 +12 +19 +8 1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201621 ROK MLEGrand Junction Rockies — 143136 21501 4321 03 154184213398 59184 223 168 0 — — — — — —
201722 A MLEAsheville Tourists — 199175 391011 13386 34 223299309608 86263 197 263 64 — — — — — —
201823 A+ MLELancaster JetHawks — 337299 631727 15976 11 211263351614 140254 294 259 61 — — — — — —
201924 AA MLEHartford Yard Goats — 276249 39806 15747 12 157225261486 104191 275 217 33 — — — — — —
202126 AAA MLEAlbuquerque Isotopes — 276257 46929 11766 10 179230335565 156210 284 246 53 — — — — — —
202227 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 205187 36415 13442 00 193252305557 112232 216 252 56 -11 +0 +10 +5 +4 1.0
202227 AAA MLEAlbuquerque Isotopes — 9681 19303 12182 00 235347383730 148246 1912 323 105 — — — — — —
202328 MLB MLEColorado Rockies — 2323 3100 0100 00 130130174304 43231 430 130 -26 -3 +0 +1 +3 +0 0.1
202328 AAA MLEAlbuquerque Isotopes — 162153 23403 6651 00 150188235423 85219 404 182 9 — — — — — —
202429 MLB MLEToronto Blue Jays — 7163 10400 5222 00 159243222465 63244 317 219 34 -6 +0 +1 +4 +2 0.1
202429 AAA MLEBuffalo Bisons — 159141 31502 17551 00 220308298606 78351 3511 280 76 — — — — — —
202530 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 233207 42602 19664 10 203283261543 58276 288 252 57 — — — — — —
202530 A MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 2724 3200 2151 00 125222208431 83338 567 199 21 — — — — — —
202631 MLB MLEAthletics — 8580 14105 4211 00 175224375599 200167 255 265 65 -4 +0 +0 +6 +2 0.5
202631 AAA MLELas Vegas Aviators — 262231 601726 21816 00 260337429766 169350 318 328 108 — — — — — —
201621 ROK MLEGrand Junction Rockies — 143136 21501 4321 03 154184213398 59192 223 168 0 — — — — — —
201621 ROK RAWGrand Junction Rockies — 143133 27701 7221 03 203248278526 75234 155 237 0 — — — — — —
201722 A MLEAsheville Tourists — 199175 391011 13386 34 223299309608 86275 197 263 64 — — — — — —
201722 A RAWAsheville Tourists — 199168 471411 20296 34 280376393769 113329 1510 342 64 — — — — — —
201823 A+ MLELancaster JetHawks — 337299 631727 15976 11 211263351614 140276 294 259 61 — — — — — —
201823 A+ RAWLancaster JetHawks — 337291 7822312 23686 11 268334488822 220301 207 343 61 — — — — — —
201924 AA MLE2 teams — 323293 471007 17877 12 160224266490 106198 275 217 33 — — — — — —
201924 AA RAW2 teams — 323288 6215111 22747 12 215287389676 174248 237 297 33 — — — — — —
202126 AAA MLE2 teams — 296275 5010210 12826 10 182232342574 160216 284 246 53 — — — — — —
202126 AAA RAW2 teams — 296271 6512216 16676 10 240297476773 236258 235 335 53 — — — — — —
202227 MLB MLE2 teams — 301268 55619 25624 00 205283336619 131231 218 274 72 -10 +0 +10 +5 +7 1.2
202227 MLB RAW2 teams — 301264 597111 29594 00 223310383692 159245 2010 309 72 -10 +0 +10 +5 +7 1.2
202328 AAA MLE2 teams — 185176 26503 6751 00 148180227408 80230 413 176 5 — — — — — —
202328 AAA RAW2 teams — 185174 33605 8611 00 190230310540 121255 334 240 5 — — — — — —
202429 AAA MLE2 teams — 230204 41902 22773 00 201288275563 74312 3310 261 63 — — — — — —
202429 AAA RAW2 teams — 230195 451003 31683 00 231345328673 97339 3013 313 63 — — — — — —
202530 AAA MLE2 teams — 260231 45802 21815 10 195276255532 61285 318 246 53 — — — — — —
202530 AAA RAW2 teams — 260221 511003 31705 10 231339317655 86318 2712 303 53 — — — — — —
202631 AAA MLE2 teams — 347311 7418211 251027 00 238309415724 177312 297 313 98 — — — — — —
202631 AAA RAW2 teams — 347301 8221214 35897 00 272362495857 223337 2610 374 98 — — — — — —
201621 ROK MLEGrand Junction Rockies — 143137 21501 4321 03 153184212396 58184 223 168 0 — — — — — —
201722 A MLEAsheville Tourists — 199178 391011 13386 34 219299303602 84263 197 263 64 — — — — — —
201823 A+ MLELancaster JetHawks — 337313 631727 15976 11 201263335598 134254 294 259 61 — — — — — —
201924 AA MLE2 teams — 323296 471007 17877 12 159224264487 105191 275 217 33 — — — — — —
202126 AAA MLE2 teams — 296276 5010210 12826 10 181232341573 159210 284 246 53 — — — — — —
202227 MLB MLE2 teams — 301269 55619 25624 00 204283335617 130236 218 274 72 — — — — — —
202328 AAA MLE2 teams — 185176 26503 6751 00 148180227408 80220 413 176 5 — — — — — —
202429 AAA MLE2 teams — 230203 41902 22773 00 202288276564 74318 3310 261 63 — — — — — —
202530 AAA MLE2 teams — 260232 45802 21815 10 194276254531 60282 318 246 53 — — — — — —
202631 AAA MLE2 teams — 347312 7418211 251027 00 237309413722 176305 297 313 98 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202429 AAA MLE2 teams — 230203 41902 22773 00 202288276564 74318 3310 261 63 — — — — — —
202530 AAA MLE2 teams — 260232 45802 21815 10 194276254531 60282 318 246 53 — — — — — —
202631 AAA MLE2 teams — 347312 7418211 251027 00 237309413722 176305 297 313 98 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202732 MLB MLEOAK 45% 333298 621319 27895 21 208285350635 142261 278 285 79 -8 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202732 MLB CTXOAK 45% 10090 19403 8272 00 214290359649 145270 278 291 79 -2 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202833 MLB MLEOAK 53% 171153 31614 14462 10 201277334611 133255 278 276 73 -6 +0 -4 +3 +4 -0.3
202833 MLB CTXOAK 53% 9183 17402 7251 00 207282343625 136264 278 281 73 -3 +0 -2 +2 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 475436 8214113 291226 00 188248314563 126228 266 254 58 -24 +0 +10 +21 +10 1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650597 11219118 401678 00 188248313561 126228 266 254 58 -33 +0 +14 +28 +14 2.4
Career— MLE — 30142720 5331121063 19283851 910 196262314576 118254 286 254 58 -32 +0 +8 +26 +17 2.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 11524214 4118111 22 196261315577 119254 286 254 58 -27 +0 +7 +22 +14 1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 262 PAwOBA .404 → .328 (−76)K% 26.0% → 31.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.95%÷1.000×1.200——31.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.83%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9627.85%
HBP% /PA2.29%—×0.940—×0.9622.07%
Singles /BIP24.18%÷1.000×0.930×1.036×0.96222.42%
Doubles /BIP13.07%÷1.000×0.830×1.036×0.96210.82%
Triples /BIP1.31%÷1.000×0.970×1.036×0.9621.26%
Home runs /BIP5.88%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9623.96%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .404 → .328; ISO .231 → .176; BABIP .399 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 233 PAwOBA .298 → .252 (−46)K% 25.3% → 28.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.32%÷1.073×1.200——28.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.02%÷0.988×0.690—×0.9728.16%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.940—×0.9721.57%
Singles /BIP25.90%÷0.993×0.930×0.995×0.97223.44%
Doubles /BIP5.04%÷0.953×0.830×0.995×0.9724.24%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.905×0.970×0.995×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP2.16%÷0.872×0.700—×0.9721.68%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .298 → .252; ISO .081 → .068; BABIP .309 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 27 PAwOBA .307 → .199 (−108)K% 40.7% → 55.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA40.74%÷0.998×1.360——55.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷0.945×0.690—×0.9407.63%
HBP% /PA3.70%—×0.780—×0.9402.72%
Singles /BIP16.67%÷1.051×0.920—×0.94013.71%
Doubles /BIP25.00%÷0.971×0.830—×0.94020.08%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.864×0.800—×0.9400.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .307 → .199; ISO .130 → .081; BABIP .417 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 159 PAwOBA .346 → .280 (−66)K% 28.9% → 34.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.93%÷1.004×1.200——34.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.35%÷1.028×0.690—×0.98210.78%
HBP% /PA0.63%—×0.940—×0.9820.58%
Singles /BIP30.23%÷0.988×0.930×1.012×0.98228.29%
Doubles /BIP6.98%÷0.959×0.830×1.012×0.9826.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.012×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP3.49%÷0.990×0.700—×0.9822.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .346 → .280; ISO .114 → .086; BABIP .386 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 162 PAwOBA .251 → .182 (−69)K% 31.5% → 39.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.48%÷0.947×1.200——39.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.94%÷0.984×0.690—×0.9923.43%
HBP% /PA0.62%—×0.940—×0.9920.58%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.018×0.930×0.975×0.99217.66%
Doubles /BIP5.00%÷1.002×0.830×0.975×0.9924.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.975×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.062×0.700—×0.9923.27%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .251 → .182; ISO .132 → .083; BABIP .258 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 96 PAwOBA .397 → .323 (−74)K% 15.6% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.62%÷0.995×1.200——18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.945×0.690—×1.00312.21%
HBP% /PA2.08%—×0.940—×1.0031.96%
Singles /BIP20.97%÷1.047×0.930×1.050×1.00319.62%
Doubles /BIP4.84%÷1.038×0.830×1.050×1.0034.07%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×1.050×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP8.06%÷1.061×0.700—×1.0035.34%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .397 → .323; ISO .234 → .168; BABIP .276 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 276 PAwOBA .345 → .246 (−100)K% 22.1% → 27.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.10%÷0.958×1.200——27.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.80%÷1.032×0.690—×1.0183.95%
HBP% /PA2.17%—×0.940—×1.0182.08%
Singles /BIP17.28%÷1.110×0.930×0.962×1.01814.18%
Doubles /BIP6.28%÷0.988×0.830×0.962×1.0185.17%
Triples /BIP1.05%÷1.150×0.920×0.962×1.0180.82%
Home runs /BIP8.38%÷1.172×0.700—×1.0185.09%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 122, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .345 → .246; ISO .254 → .160; BABIP .266 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAHartford Yard Goats · 276 PAwOBA .284 → .217 (−67)K% 22.1% → 26.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.10%÷1.007×1.220——26.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.97%÷1.042×0.700—×1.0125.42%
HBP% /PA2.54%—×0.850—×1.0122.18%
Singles /BIP15.47%÷1.029×0.970×0.950×1.01214.02%
Doubles /BIP6.63%÷1.178×0.860×0.950×1.0124.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.950×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP4.97%÷1.190×0.780—×1.0123.30%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 106, 2B 136, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .284 → .217; ISO .161 → .109; BABIP .230 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .