Luke Maile

C Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 36 R/R 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 3.229 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	33	MLBCIN	154	.178/.270/.252	2	2	49	-0.5
2025	34	AAAKC	101	.280/.416/.354	1	2	65	—	.207/.317/.264
2025	34	MLBKC	54	.244/.346/.356	1	1	99	0.6
2026	35	AAAKC	105	.202/.324/.303	2	0	36	—	.160/.248/.213
2026	35	MLBKC	48	.159/.229/.273	1	0	45	0.1
2027PROJ45% MLB	36	MLBKC	42	.197/.286/.300	1	0	71	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	37	MLBKC	29	.186/.274/.275	0	0	60	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.229First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.2M2028Arb-2$0.4M2029Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd26

Barrel%18

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Speed10

CompsMatt Treanor (age 35) · Paul Bako (age 37) · Jamie Burke (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7471vR 61

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .286 / .300

PA42

HR1

K%26

BB%10

BABIP256

ISO105

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.187

POWER40

Barrel%

184.1

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

2668.7

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED25

Sprint

1024.7

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 189 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

142

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

299

250

◀◀L

ISO

175

057

◀◀L

BABIP

231

294

▶▶R

27.7%

32.4%

◀L

BB%

12.8%

8.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2015

Service 3.229 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	22	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	407	361	102	25	3	4	41	54	0	8	2	283	356	402	757	119	318	13	10	337	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	15	12	2	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		250	33	13	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	393	351	93	19	4	5	35	76	5	1	1	265	340	385	725	120	324	19	9	326	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	32	28	6	1	0	1	3	10	0	1	0	214	290	357	647	143	278	31	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	35	35	6	3	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	171	171	257	429	86	222	23	0	188	14	-4	+0	+1	+7	+1	0.5
2015	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	337	294	61	9	1	5	35	50	4	1	1	207	300	296	596	88	231	15	10	275	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	126	119	27	7	0	3	4	36	0	0	0	227	252	361	613	134	300	29	3	265	62	-6	+0	+5	+6	+3	0.8
2016	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	214	194	47	13	0	2	16	36	3	0	1	242	310	340	650	98	288	17	7	295	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	136	130	19	5	0	2	3	35	2	1	0	146	178	231	409	85	181	26	2	184	10	-14	+0	+4	+4	+3	-0.4
2017	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	58	54	9	0	0	0	4	12	0	0	0	167	224	167	391		214	21	7	189	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		188	6	0	160	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	231	202	50	13	1	3	25	67	2	2	0	248	336	366	703	119	351	29	11	317	101	+0	+0	+13	+4	+5	2.3
2019	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	129	119	18	2	1	2	8	33	0	1	0	151	205	235	440	84	190	26	6	199	20	-12	+0	+5	+2	+3	-0.2
2021	30	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	34	30	9	4	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	300	382	433	816	133	391	21	9	367	142	+2	+0	+0	+3	+1	0.6
2021	30	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	155	129	29	9	0	1	22	50	3	2	0	225	351	318	668	93	359	32	14	312	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	206	181	40	10	0	3	19	54	3	0	0	221	305	326	631	105	291	26	9	286	79	-5	+0	+5	+4	+4	0.9
2022	31	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	20	16	9	2	0	2	4	3	0	0	0	562	650	1.062	1.712	500	636	15	20	702	266	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	199	179	42	10	0	6	14	49	5	2	1	235	308	391	699	156	290	25	7	313	94	-1	+0	+2	+4	+4	0.9
2024	33	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	154	135	24	4	0	2	13	52	4	2	0	178	270	252	522	74	268	34	8	244	49	-9	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.5
2025	34	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	54	45	11	2	0	1	7	16	0	1	0	244	346	356	702	111	357	30	13	311	99	-0	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.6
2025	34	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	101	82	23	3	0	1	18	22	1	2	0	280	416	354	770	73	373	22	18	361	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	48	44	7	2	0	1	4	14	0	0	0	159	229	273	502	114	207	29	8	230	45	-3	+0	+0	+3	+1	0.1
2026	35	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	89	18	3	0	2	14	26	2	0	0	202	324	303	627	101	262	25	13	295	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1352	1219	253	62	2	23	100	371	17	9	1	208	277	318	595	111	276	27	7	269	68	-52	+1	+35	+42	+29	5.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	407	376	90	20	3	3	26	77	0	8	2	239	289	332	621	93	285	19	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	393	361	87	17	3	4	25	90	5	1	1	241	299	338	637	97	306	23	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	35	35	6	3	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	171	171	257	429	86	222	23	0	189	14	-4	+0	+1	+7	+1	0.5
2015	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	337	307	59	8	1	4	22	59	4	1	1	192	255	264	519	72	217	18	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	126	120	27	7	0	3	3	36	0	0	0	225	244	358	602	133	300	29	2	260	62	-6	+0	+5	+6	+3	0.8
2016	25	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	214	200	41	10	0	1	10	43	3	0	1	205	254	270	524	65	257	20	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	136	130	19	5	0	2	3	35	2	1	0	146	178	231	409	85	181	26	2	184	10	-14	+0	+4	+4	+3	-0.4
2017	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	58	55	8	0	0	0	3	15	0	0	0	145	190	145	335		203	26	5	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	17	17	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	176	176	176	353		167	6	0	135	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	231	202	50	13	1	3	25	67	2	2	0	248	336	366	703	119	351	29	11	317	101	+0	+0	+13	+4	+5	2.3
2019	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	129	119	18	2	1	2	8	33	0	1	0	151	205	235	440	84	190	26	6	198	20	-12	+0	+5	+2	+3	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	34	30	9	4	0	0	3	7	1	0	0	300	382	433	816	133	391	21	9	378	142	+2	+0	+0	+3	+1	0.6
2021	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	155	136	26	7	0	1	15	59	3	2	0	191	286	265	550	74	321	38	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	206	181	40	10	0	3	19	54	3	0	0	221	305	326	631	105	291	26	9	285	79	-5	+0	+5	+4	+4	0.9
2022	31	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	20	17	8	2	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	471	550	765	1.315	294	540	15	15	561	266	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	199	179	42	10	0	6	14	49	5	2	1	235	308	391	699	156	290	25	7	308	94	-1	+0	+2	+4	+4	0.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	154	135	24	4	0	2	13	52	4	2	0	178	270	252	522	74	268	34	8	240	49	-9	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.5
2025	34	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	54	45	11	2	0	1	7	16	0	1	0	244	346	356	702	111	357	30	13	315	99	-0	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.6
2025	34	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	101	87	18	2	0	1	13	26	1	2	0	207	317	264	581	57	286	26	13	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	48	44	7	2	0	1	4	14	0	0	0	159	229	273	502	114	207	29	8	235	45	-3	+0	+0	+3	+1	0.1
2026	35	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	105	94	15	2	0	1	9	31	2	0	0	160	248	213	460	53	225	30	9	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	422	389	94	21	3	3	27	79	0	8	2	242	291	334	625	93	291	19	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	422	373	104	25	3	4	43	59	0	8	2	279	353	394	747	115	316	14	10	333	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	425	390	94	18	3	4	27	97	5	2	1	241	299	333	632	92	308	23	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	425	379	99	20	4	6	38	86	5	2	1	261	336	383	719	121	321	20	9	323	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	372	342	65	11	1	4	22	67	4	1	1	190	247	263	510	73	223	18	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	372	329	67	12	1	5	35	58	4	1	1	204	288	292	580	88	230	16	9	266	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	340	320	69	17	0	5	13	79	3	0	1	216	253	316	569	100	271	23	4	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	340	313	74	20	0	5	20	72	3	0	1	236	289	348	637	112	292	21	6	284	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	211	202	30	5	0	2	6	52	2	1	0	149	181	203	384	54	188	25	3	172	3	-24	+0	+4	+4	+5	-1.2
2017	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	211	201	31	5	0	2	7	48	2	1	0	154	190	209	399	55	191	23	3	183	3	-24	+0	+4	+4	+5	-1.2
2018	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	231	202	50	13	1	3	25	67	2	2	0	248	336	366	703	119	351	29	11	317	101	+0	+0	+13	+4	+5	2.3
2018	27	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	231	202	50	13	1	3	25	67	2	2	0	248	336	366	703	119	351	29	11	317	101	+0	+0	+13	+4	+5	2.3
2019	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	129	119	18	2	1	2	8	33	0	1	0	151	205	235	440	84	190	26	6	198	20	-12	+0	+5	+2	+3	-0.2
2019	28	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	129	119	18	2	1	2	8	33	0	1	0	151	205	235	440	84	190	26	6	199	20	-12	+0	+5	+2	+3	-0.2
2021	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	189	166	35	11	0	1	18	66	4	2	0	211	303	295	598	84	343	35	10	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	189	159	38	13	0	1	25	57	4	2	0	239	356	340	696	101	366	30	13	322	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	226	198	47	11	0	4	22	57	3	0	0	237	323	354	676	116	307	25	10	310	96	-1	+0	+5	+4	+5	1.3
2022	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	226	197	49	12	0	5	23	57	3	0	0	249	336	386	722	137	319	25	10	323	96	-1	+0	+5	+4	+5	1.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	199	179	42	10	0	6	14	49	5	2	1	235	308	391	699	156	290	25	7	308	94	-1	+0	+2	+4	+4	0.9
2023	32	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	199	179	42	10	0	6	14	49	5	2	1	235	308	391	699	156	290	25	7	313	94	-1	+0	+2	+4	+4	0.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	154	135	24	4	0	2	13	52	4	2	0	178	270	252	522	74	268	34	8	240	49	-9	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.5
2024	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	154	135	24	4	0	2	13	52	4	2	0	178	270	252	522	74	268	34	8	244	49	-9	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.5
2025	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	155	132	29	4	0	2	20	42	1	3	0	220	327	295	622	76	307	27	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	155	127	34	5	0	2	25	38	1	3	0	268	392	354	746	87	368	25	16	343	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	153	138	22	4	0	2	13	45	2	0	0	159	242	232	474	72	220	29	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	153	133	25	5	0	3	18	40	2	0	0	188	294	293	587	105	244	26	12	275	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	422	392	94	21	3	3	27	79	0	8	2	240	291	332	622	92	285	19	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	425	390	94	18	3	4	27	97	5	2	1	241	299	333	632	92	306	23	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	372	343	65	11	1	4	22	67	4	1	1	190	247	262	510	73	217	18	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	340	321	69	17	0	5	13	79	3	0	1	215	253	315	568	100	273	23	4	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	211	201	30	5	0	2	6	52	2	1	0	149	181	204	385	55	186	25	3	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	231	202	50	13	1	3	25	67	2	2	0	248	336	366	703	119	351	29	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	129	120	18	2	1	2	8	33	0	1	0	150	205	233	438	83	190	26	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	189	165	35	11	0	1	18	66	4	2	0	212	303	297	600	85	334	35	10	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	226	199	47	11	0	4	22	57	3	0	0	236	323	352	675	116	313	25	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	199	178	42	10	0	6	14	49	5	2	1	236	308	393	701	157	290	25	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	154	136	24	4	0	2	13	52	4	2	0	176	270	250	520	74	268	34	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	155	133	29	4	0	2	20	42	1	3	0	218	327	293	620	75	311	27	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	153	137	22	4	0	2	13	45	2	0	0	161	242	234	475	73	219	29	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	154	136	24	4	0	2	13	52	4	2	0	176	270	250	520	74	268	34	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	155	133	29	4	0	2	20	42	1	3	0	218	327	293	620	75	311	27	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	153	137	22	4	0	2	13	45	2	0	0	161	242	234	475	73	219	29	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	KC	45%	150	132	26	5	0	3	15	39	2	2	1	199	288	306	595	107	258	26	10	273	71	-5	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	KC	45%	42	38	7	1	0	1	4	11	0	0	0	197	286	300	586	103	256	26	10	269	71	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	36%	80	71	12	2	0	1	8	21	1	0	0	188	276	281	557	93	247	26	10	257	60	-4	+0	-7	+1	+2	-0.8
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	36%	29	26	4	1	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	186	274	275	549	90	246	28	10	254	60	-1	+0	-3	+1	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1381	1245	257	63	2	23	103	379	17	9	1	206	276	316	592	109	275	27	7	268	63	-53	+1	+33	+43	+30	5.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	122	30	1	11	48	178	8	4	0	208	277	319	596	111	278	27	7	268	63	-25	+1	+15	+20	+14	2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3379	3066	647	136	9	43	245	830	37	25	6	211	277	303	581	92	273	25	7	262	63	-59	+2	+27	+45	+33	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	124	26	2	8	47	160	7	5	1	210	276	302	578	92	272	25	7	262	63	-25	+1	+12	+19	+14	2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 105 PAwOBA .288 → .222 (−67)K% 24.8% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	29.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.65%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.68%
Singles /BIP	20.63%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.014	×0.940	18.29%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.014	×0.940	3.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.014	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.17%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .288 → .222; ISO .101 → .071; BABIP .262 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 101 PAwOBA .352 → .265 (−88)K% 21.8% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.78%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	25.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.82%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.940	12.36%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.87%
Singles /BIP	31.67%	÷1.108	×0.930	×0.981	×0.940	24.51%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.981	×0.940	3.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.981	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.09%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .352 → .265; ISO .073 → .053; BABIP .373 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 20 PAwOBA .683 → .561 (−122)K% 15.0% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷1.036	×1.200	—	—	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷0.930	×0.690	—	×0.962	14.27%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷0.941	×0.930	—	×0.962	36.58%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.040	×0.830	—	×0.962	11.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	15.38%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.962	10.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .683 → .561; ISO .500 → .366; BABIP .636 → .540. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 155 PAwOBA .303 → .249 (−53)K% 32.3% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.26%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	37.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.55%	÷0.946	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.60%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.77%
Singles /BIP	24.05%	÷0.966	×0.930	×1.012	×0.972	22.77%
Doubles /BIP	11.39%	÷1.030	×0.830	×1.012	×0.972	9.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.012	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.94%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .303 → .249; ISO .093 → .072; BABIP .359 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 58 PAwOBA .184 → .156 (−28)K% 20.7% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.69%	÷0.950	×1.200	—	—	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.90%	÷1.027	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.021	×0.930	×1.019	×1.018	20.25%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.830	×1.019	×1.018	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.970	×1.019	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.903	×0.840	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .184 → .156; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .214 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 17 PAwOBA .155 → .135 (−21)K% 5.9% → 8.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.88%	÷1.007	×1.420	—	—	8.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.118	×0.750	—	×0.968	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.968	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.002	×0.920	—	×0.968	16.67%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.960	—	×0.968	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.265	×0.880	—	×0.968	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .155 → .135; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .188 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAADurham Bulls · 214 PAwOBA .288 → .239 (−48)K% 16.8% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.82%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	20.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.48%	÷1.082	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.93%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.36%
Singles /BIP	20.25%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.991	×1.033	19.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.23%	÷1.093	×0.830	×0.991	×1.033	6.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.991	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷1.167	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.94%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .288 → .239; ISO .098 → .075; BABIP .288 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAADurham Bulls · 337 PAwOBA .270 → .235 (−35)K% 14.8% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.84%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.39%	÷1.148	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.54%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.17%
Singles /BIP	18.85%	÷1.025	×0.930	×1.010	×1.048	18.11%
Doubles /BIP	3.69%	÷1.062	×0.830	×1.010	×1.048	3.05%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.010	×1.048	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷1.039	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.74%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 105, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .270 → .235; ISO .088 → .079; BABIP .231 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	2.0	1,306	23	10	207	276	317	+22	+32	1.1	1.6
/162	664	12	5	+11.3	+16.2	0.6	pk7: 2
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Maile (OGILVIE)	36	35	40	25	55	198/286/304	106	258	2	1	26%	10%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Treanor 2011 · MLB	35	44	42→40	42→40	51	217/292/318	101	250	11	5	18%	8%	75	-0.5	213/311/316	103	260	10	7	21%	11%	82	+0.0	192/310/272	79	243	7	5	22%	12%	71	-0.3
✕Paul Bako 2009 · MLB	37	45	41→45	38→40	47	217/284/315	98	287	9	3	27%	8%	71	-0.8	235/299/355	120	300	13	5	25%	8%	86	+0.3	243/298/329	86	311	10	0	24%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Jamie Burke 2008 · MLB	36	49→45	43→45	40→30	46	237/286/347	110	262	10	3	15%	5%	79	-0.2	225/275/317	92	264	8	5	17%	5%	68	-1.0	203/251/265	62	245	4	1	18%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Mike Matheny 2006 · MLB	35	48→52	46→45	35→30	43	237/277/370	133	273	13	2	19%	5%	81	-0.1	234/282/372	138	269	14	5	19%	5%	83	+0.1	220/260/321	101	252	10	0	17%	4%	63	-0.4
✕Mike DiFelice 2006 · MLB	37	40	48→50	42→30	45	210/270/351	141	249	16	5	23%	7%	74	-0.5	214/272/317	103	279	10	4	26%	6%	67	-1.1	208/260/284	76	277	6	0	26%	5%	54	-0.8
✕Mike Rivera 2012 · MLB	35	39	43→55	44→45	43	195/264/303	108	264	10	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	211/270/317	106	285	11	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	194/245/256	62	262	7	0	28%	4%	40	-0.8
✕Francisco Valdez 2006 · AAA	37	48	45→40	40→30	43	235/291/352	116	263	13	5	16%	4%	82	+0.0	248/290/336	88	276	8	5	13%	4%	78	-0.3	260/300/341	82	286	4	1	10%	3%	79	-0.1
✕Jonathan Aceves 2013 · AAA	35	43	47→50	42→30	42	220/269/354	135	276	15	6	26%	6%	75	-0.5	211/264/333	122	256	14	4	23%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Adam Hyzdu 2006 · MLB	34	43→41	48→50	39→45	51	220/300/360	140	282	16	6	27%	10%	88	+0.4	215/288/358	143	271	16	8	26%	9%	82	+0.0	198/274/338	141	242	16	7	25%	9%	73	-0.6
✕Corky Miller 2011 · MLB	35	45	44→50	41→40	47	224/288/344	121	259	12	3	19%	6%	80	-0.2	205/285/314	109	235	11	5	18%	8%	72	-0.7	179/271/271	92	202	10	2	17%	9%	57	-0.7
✕Hector Hurtado 2008 · AAA	37	46	42→40	41→30	38	226/266/322	96	282	10	3	24%	3%	65	-1.2	213/251/291	78	270	7	4	23%	3%	52	-2.2	206/236/255	49	259	4	0	22%	2%	34	-1.0
✕John McDonald 2012 · MLB	37	47	45→40	40→50	46	232/271/354	121	249	12	7	13%	5%	74	-0.5	218/267/326	108	245	12	6	16%	6%	67	-1.1	206/247/305	99	227	13	2	16%	4%	55	-0.5
✕Humberto Quintero 2015 · MLB	35	47	44→45	41→40	38	233/263/350	118	284	11	5	22%	3%	70	-0.8	225/257/325	100	280	10	7	23%	3%	63	-1.4	220/242/296	76	267	11	3	22%	2%	47	-1.3
✕Iker Franco 2017 · AAA	36	51→47	41→50	43→40	47	245/299/336	91	296	9	4	20%	7%	80	-0.1	221/273/327	106	279	12	7	24%	6%	70	-0.9	156/195/247	91	190	13	0	26%	5%	19	-0.9
✕Miguel Ojeda 2011 · AAA	36	47→45	46→45	43→45	51	235/298/365	131	265	14	8	18%	8%	88	+0.4	228/284/331	103	275	10	7	20%	7%	74	-0.5	225/281/317	91	274	8	6	20%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Lou Merloni 2007 · MLB	36	48→44	42→45	40	46	234/291/341	107	271	9	4	17%	6%	79	-0.2	215/270/303	88	250	7	5	16%	6%	63	-1.4	201/254/264	63	234	3	1	15%	6%	45	-2.0
✕Brent Mayne 2004 · MLB	36	50	40	38→40	51	242/301/334	92	271	8	4	14%	7%	81	-0.1	228/292/321	93	270	8	6	18%	8%	75	-0.5	205/272/244	39	256	0	3	18%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Alberto Castillo 2007 · MLB	37	48	37→30	41→30	52	225/293/304	79	273	4	5	18%	9%	71	-0.8	230/291/326	96	279	8	5	19%	8%	76	-0.4	223/290/293	70	267	8	0	18%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Doug Bernier 2017 · AAA	37	46→52	40	42→45	44	223/276/313	90	281	9	7	24%	6%	67	-1.1	214/268/306	92	282	9	7	26%	6%	63	-1.4	186/236/233	47	249	5	0	26%	5%	31	-1.6
✕Adan Amezcua 2011 · AAA	37	46	40→45	41→45	47	221/271/311	90	257	7	6	17%	6%	65	-1.2	237/297/353	116	280	11	6	19%	6%	84	+0.2	244/310/369	125	285	12	4	18%	7%	91	+0.3

Luke Maile

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps