Michael Pérez

C Reno Aces

Age 34 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	30	AAA/INTL2 orgs	337	.223/.337/.367	10	2	61	—	.162/.241/.261
2024	31	AAA/INTL2 orgs	270	.247/.340/.421	9	0	49	—	.181/.258/.294
2025	32	AAAARI	74	.273/.351/.424	2	0	65	—	.206/.270/.294
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBARI	13	.223/.294/.366	0	0	82	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBARI	5	.212/.282/.341	0	0	72	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Bat Spd55

Barrel%39

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Speed10

CompsJuan Centeno (age 33) · Chris Coste (age 34) · Adam Hyzdu (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .294 / .366

PA13

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP279

ISO83

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractPOW 48

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT—

xAVG

100.176

POWER48

Barrel%

396.7

Avg EV

1085.0

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED25

Sprint

1024.5

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	18	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	25	23	5	2	0	2	2	10	0	1	0	217	280	565	845	348	273	40	8	361	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	254	225	66	16	5	10	20	72	5	0	1	293	364	542	906	249	381	28	8	389	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	INTL	Atenienses de Manati	—	16	13	2	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	154	267	615	882	462		25	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	193	179	31	9	0	5	11	78	1	1	1	173	225	307	532	134	265	40	6	237	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	178	162	40	12	2	2	14	55	0	0	0	247	307	383	690	136	355	31	8	305	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	388	319	76	21	4	9	62	92	2	1	3	238	366	414	779	176	302	24	16	348	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	INTL	Senadores de San Juan	—	32	30	5	2	0	1	1	12	1	0	0	167	219	333	552	167	235	38	3	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	131	117	22	6	0	3	9	37	2	1	0	188	258	316	574	128	241	28	7	255	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A	Kane County Cougars	—	208	183	41	9	0	1	20	31	2	4	3	224	304	290	594	66	263	15	10	275	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	131	122	25	4	1	3	7	29	1	0	1	205	254	328	582	123	242	22	5	260	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	173	156	40	10	2	1	15	33	0	1	0	256	322	365	687	109	315	19	9	307	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Jackson Generals	—	302	262	73	23	0	5	35	61	2	0	2	279	368	424	792	145	343	20	12	353	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	58	53	11	1	0	0	4	13	1	0	0	208	276	226	502	19	275	22	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	80	74	21	5	0	1	3	19	0	0	0	284	312	392	704	108	357	24	4	302	90	-1	+0	+0	+6	+2	0.7
2018	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	240	218	62	9	1	6	20	40	0	0	1	284	345	417	762	133	322	17	8	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	29	26	5	0	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	192	276	308	584	115	222	24	10	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	55	46	10	5	0	0	8	19	1	0	0	217	345	326	672	109	370	35	15	314	99	-0	+0	+1	+6	+1	0.8
2019	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	216	184	45	7	0	13	28	51	0	0	2	245	344	495	839	250	258	24	13	362	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	50	45	5	2	0	0	4	16	0	0	0	111	184	156	339	44	167	32	8	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	93	84	14	3	0	1	7	27	1	0	0	167	239	238	477	71	228	29	8	222	36	-7	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.0
2021	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	231	210	30	8	1	7	19	68	2	0	1	143	221	290	511	148	170	29	8	233	44	-15	-0	+4	+5	+5	-0.1
2021	28	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	62	45	8	3	0	1	15	11	2	0	0	178	403	311	714	133	212	18	24	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	New York Mets	—	132	121	18	0	0	6	10	32	0	1	0	149	214	298	511	149	145	24	8	230	43	-9	+0	+2	+6	+3	0.2
2022	29	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	92	77	16	3	0	2	13	23	1	0	0	208	330	325	654	117	264	25	14	302	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	INTL	Cangrejeros de Santurce	—	119	98	19	2	0	5	18	26	1	0	0	194	325	367	692	173	203	22	15	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	270	230	47	7	0	9	34	64	2	0	0	204	312	352	664	148	237	24	13	300	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	67	53	16	4	0	1	12	16	1	2	0	302	439	434	873	132	417	24	18	392	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA	Reno Aces	—	246	212	55	14	0	9	26	58	6	0	0	259	357	453	809	193	313	24	11	359	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	24	23	3	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	130	167	130	297		273	50	4	142	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA	Reno Aces	—	74	66	18	4	0	2	6	19	2	0	0	273	351	424	776	152	356	26	8	349	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	591	535	93	21	1	15	47	165	4	1	1	174	246	301	547	127	218	28	8	247	54	-33	-0	+11	+25	+13	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	25	24	3	1	0	1	1	14	0	1	0	125	160	292	452	167	199	56	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	254	233	45	10	3	7	12	104	5	0	1	193	248	352	600	159	284	41	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	193	183	19	5	0	3	7	107	1	1	1	104	141	180	322	77	217	55	4	150	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	178	167	29	8	1	2	9	79	0	0	0	174	216	269	485	96	305	44	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	388	338	62	16	3	7	43	125	2	1	3	183	279	311	590	127	256	32	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	131	120	17	4	0	3	6	50	2	1	0	142	195	250	445	108	192	38	5	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	—	208	192	34	7	0	1	13	43	2	4	3	177	237	229	466	52	221	21	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	131	124	21	3	1	2	5	36	1	0	1	169	208	258	466	89	212	27	4	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	173	161	34	8	1	1	10	43	0	1	0	211	257	292	549	81	278	25	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	302	274	65	20	0	4	23	76	2	0	2	237	301	354	655	117	306	25	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	80	74	21	5	0	1	3	19	0	0	0	284	312	392	704	108	357	24	4	301	90	-1	+0	+0	+6	+2	0.7
2018	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	240	225	50	6	1	4	13	52	0	0	1	222	265	311	576	89	269	22	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	55	46	10	5	0	0	8	19	1	0	0	217	345	326	672	109	370	35	15	315	99	-0	+0	+1	+6	+1	0.8
2019	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	216	193	39	6	0	10	19	60	0	0	2	202	274	389	662	187	220	28	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	93	84	14	3	0	1	7	27	1	0	0	167	239	238	477	71	228	29	8	221	36	-7	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.0
2021	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	231	211	31	8	1	8	18	68	2	0	1	147	221	308	529	161	170	29	8	234	44	-15	-0	+4	+5	+5	-0.1
2022	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	132	121	18	0	0	6	10	32	0	1	0	149	214	298	511	149	145	24	8	232	43	-9	+0	+2	+6	+3	0.2
2022	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	92	81	15	3	0	1	9	29	1	0	0	185	275	259	534	74	251	32	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	270	241	39	6	0	6	23	80	2	0	0	162	241	261	502	100	203	30	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	246	221	40	10	0	5	17	72	6	0	0	181	258	294	552	113	239	29	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	74	68	14	3	0	1	4	22	2	0	0	206	270	294	564	88	296	30	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	25	24	3	1	0	1	1	14	0	1	0	125	160	292	452	167	222	56	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	25	23	5	2	0	2	2	10	0	1	0	217	280	565	845	348	273	40	8	361	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	270	247	46	10	3	7	13	110	5	0	1	186	242	336	578	150	289	41	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	270	238	68	16	5	12	22	76	5	0	1	286	358	546	905	261	361	28	8	386	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	371	350	49	13	1	5	16	185	1	1	1	140	180	226	406	86	268	50	4	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	371	341	71	21	2	7	25	133	1	1	1	208	264	343	607	135	312	36	7	270	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	365	67	17	3	8	47	136	3	1	3	184	282	312	594	129	262	32	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	420	349	81	23	4	10	63	104	3	1	3	232	354	407	761	175	297	25	15	340	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	339	312	51	11	0	4	19	93	4	5	3	163	221	237	458	74	216	27	6	203	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	339	300	63	15	0	4	29	68	4	5	3	210	287	300	587	90	255	20	9	267	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	304	285	55	11	2	3	15	80	1	1	1	193	236	277	513	84	254	26	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	304	278	65	14	3	4	22	62	1	1	1	234	292	349	641	115	284	20	7	286	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	360	327	78	24	0	5	27	90	3	0	2	239	303	358	660	119	312	25	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	360	315	84	24	0	5	39	74	3	0	2	267	353	390	743	124	332	21	11	334	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	349	326	78	12	1	6	18	78	0	0	1	239	279	337	616	98	293	22	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	349	318	88	14	1	8	26	66	0	0	1	277	331	403	734	126	323	19	7	324	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	321	282	58	13	0	12	33	94	1	0	2	206	291	379	671	174	254	29	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	321	275	60	14	0	13	40	86	1	0	2	218	320	411	731	193	260	27	12	323	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	93	84	14	3	0	1	7	27	1	0	0	167	239	238	477	71	228	29	8	221	36	-7	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	93	84	14	3	0	1	7	27	1	0	0	167	239	238	477	71	228	29	8	222	36	-7	+0	+3	+2	+2	0.0
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	266	39	10	1	10	23	86	4	0	1	147	225	305	530	158	171	29	8	234	44	-19	-0	+4	+5	+6	-0.4
2021	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	293	255	38	11	1	8	34	79	4	0	1	149	259	294	554	145	179	27	12	257	44	-19	-0	+4	+5	+6	-0.4
2022	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	343	309	50	4	0	11	28	93	2	1	0	162	236	282	518	120	188	27	8	236	46	-22	+0	+2	+6	+7	-0.7
2022	29	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	343	296	53	5	0	13	41	81	2	1	0	179	283	328	611	149	195	24	12	278	46	-22	+0	+2	+6	+7	-0.7
2023	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	337	301	49	7	0	8	28	100	3	2	0	163	241	266	507	103	209	30	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	337	283	63	11	0	10	46	80	3	2	0	223	337	367	705	145	270	24	14	318	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	270	243	45	11	0	6	19	79	6	0	0	185	261	305	566	119	244	29	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	270	235	58	14	0	9	27	70	6	0	0	247	340	421	761	174	310	26	10	339	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	74	68	14	3	0	1	4	22	2	0	0	206	270	294	564	88	289	30	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	74	66	18	4	0	2	6	19	2	0	0	273	351	424	776	152	356	26	8	349	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	25	24	3	1	0	1	1	14	0	1	0	125	160	292	452	167	199	56	4	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	270	250	46	10	3	7	13	110	5	0	1	184	242	332	574	148	284	41	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	371	351	49	13	1	5	16	185	1	1	1	140	180	225	405	85	259	50	4	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	420	367	67	17	3	8	47	136	3	1	3	183	282	311	593	128	256	32	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	339	313	51	11	0	4	19	93	4	5	3	163	221	236	457	73	210	27	6	203	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	304	285	55	11	2	3	15	80	1	1	1	193	236	277	513	84	250	26	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	360	327	78	24	0	5	27	90	3	0	2	239	303	358	660	119	306	25	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	349	328	78	12	1	6	18	78	0	0	1	238	279	335	614	98	291	22	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	321	284	58	13	0	12	33	94	1	0	2	204	291	377	668	173	251	29	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	93	85	14	3	0	1	7	27	1	0	0	165	239	235	474	71	228	29	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	264	39	10	1	10	23	86	4	0	1	148	225	307	532	159	170	29	8	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	343	310	50	4	0	11	28	93	2	1	0	161	236	281	517	119	188	27	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	337	303	49	7	0	8	28	100	3	2	0	162	241	264	505	102	203	30	8	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	270	243	45	11	0	6	19	79	6	0	0	185	261	305	566	119	239	29	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	74	68	14	3	0	1	4	22	2	0	0	206	270	294	564	88	296	30	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	270	243	45	11	0	6	19	79	6	0	0	185	261	305	566	119	239	29	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	74	68	14	3	0	1	4	22	2	0	0	206	270	294	564	88	296	30	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	209	188	41	8	1	5	16	53	3	4	1	218	289	357	646	140	269	25	8	290	82	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	13	12	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	223	294	366	660	142	279	23	8	295	82	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	6%	82	75	15	3	0	2	6	21	1	1	0	207	277	334	611	127	259	26	7	275	72	-3	+0	-6	+1	+2	-0.5
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	6%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	212	282	341	623	130	268	20	0	280	72	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	596	540	94	21	1	15	47	166	4	1	1	174	245	300	545	126	218	28	8	248	52	-33	-0	+11	+25	+13	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	102	23	1	16	51	181	4	1	1	173	243	297	541	124	218	28	8	248	52	-36	-0	+12	+27	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4381	3981	737	158	12	93	314	1341	39	15	16	185	251	301	552	116	249	31	7	245	52	-38	+0	+6	+29	+17	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	109	23	2	14	47	199	6	2	2	184	252	301	553	117	247	31	7	245	52	-31	+0	+4	+23	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 74 PAwOBA .340 → .265 (−75)K% 25.7% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.68%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	30.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.11%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.942	5.47%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	2.39%
Singles /BIP	25.53%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×0.942	22.50%
Doubles /BIP	8.51%	÷1.069	×0.830	—	×0.942	6.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.26%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×0.942	3.10%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .340 → .265; ISO .152 → .108; BABIP .356 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAReno Aces · 246 PAwOBA .352 → .250 (−102)K% 23.6% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.58%	÷0.964	×1.200	—	—	29.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.57%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×0.952	6.86%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	2.18%
Singles /BIP	20.78%	÷1.076	×0.930	×0.971	×0.952	16.60%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.025	×0.830	×0.971	×0.952	6.81%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.970	×0.971	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.84%	÷1.124	×0.700	—	×0.952	3.46%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 103, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .352 → .250; ISO .193 → .123; BABIP .313 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 270 PAwOBA .294 → .226 (−68)K% 23.7% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.70%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	29.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.22%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.39%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.67%
Singles /BIP	18.67%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.979	×0.962	16.41%
Doubles /BIP	4.22%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.979	×0.962	3.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.979	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.42%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .294 → .226; ISO .148 → .104; BABIP .237 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 92 PAwOBA .298 → .241 (−56)K% 25.0% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	31.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.13%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×0.972	9.30%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.99%
Singles /BIP	20.37%	÷0.953	×0.930	×1.039	×0.972	20.06%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.039	×0.972	4.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.039	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.033	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .298 → .241; ISO .117 → .085; BABIP .264 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 216 PAwOBA .359 → .286 (−73)K% 23.6% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.61%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	27.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.96%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.99%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.80%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	16.89%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	4.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.025	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.77%	÷1.128	×0.840	—	×1.003	7.30%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .359 → .286; ISO .250 → .193; BABIP .258 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAReno Aces · 240 PAwOBA .332 → .260 (−73)K% 16.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.991	×1.290	—	—	21.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷1.069	×0.710	—	×1.018	5.63%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.84%	÷1.024	×0.900	×0.973	×1.018	22.50%
Doubles /BIP	5.06%	÷1.117	×0.810	×0.973	×1.018	3.63%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.973	×1.018	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.37%	÷1.044	×0.780	—	×1.018	2.56%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 105, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .332 → .260; ISO .133 → .097; BABIP .322 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAJackson Generals · 302 PAwOBA .344 → .289 (−55)K% 20.2% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.20%	÷0.983	×1.220	—	—	25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.93%	÷0.987	×0.680	—	×0.998	7.51%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.56%
Singles /BIP	22.39%	÷0.980	×0.920	×0.966	×0.998	20.28%
Doubles /BIP	11.44%	÷1.004	×0.910	×0.966	×0.998	10.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.966	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.49%	÷0.985	×0.800	—	×0.998	2.02%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .344 → .289; ISO .145 → .124; BABIP .343 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Visalia Rawhide · 173 PAwOBA .302 → .246 (−57)K% 19.1% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.08%	÷1.020	×1.340	—	—	25.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷1.008	×0.710	—	×0.988	6.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷0.994	×0.910	×1.027	×0.988	20.40%
Doubles /BIP	8.13%	÷1.038	×0.820	×1.027	×0.988	6.52%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷1.065	×0.760	×1.027	×0.988	1.18%
Home runs /BIP	0.81%	÷1.134	×0.920	—	×0.988	0.65%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 113, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .302 → .246; ISO .109 → .083; BABIP .315 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	0.9	609	15	1	176	245	304	+11	+10	-0.6	-0.6
/162	664	17	1	+11.7	+10.5	-0.7	pk7: -1
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Pérez (OGILVIE)	34	—	48	25	51	216/287/354	138	269	3	2	25%	8%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Centeno 2023 · AAA	33	47	46→45	42→40	42	233/273/360	127	270	13	4	20%	4%	77	-0.3	220/263/311	91	300	8	8	28%	5%	61	-1.5	203/243/240	37	305	1	7	32%	5%	34	-1.6
✕Chris Coste 2007 · MLB	34	49→48	47→50	40→30	43	245/290/381	136	276	16	4	18%	5%	88	+0.5	245/295/376	131	279	15	3	18%	5%	89	+0.5	243/297/365	122	280	13	0	18%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Adam Hyzdu 2006 · MLB	34	43→41	48→50	39→45	51	220/300/360	140	282	16	6	27%	10%	88	+0.4	215/288/358	143	271	16	8	26%	9%	82	+0.0	198/274/338	141	242	16	7	25%	9%	73	-0.6
✕Adan Munoz 2012 · AAA	34	47→55	48→50	41→45	43	239/271/380	141	257	17	5	16%	4%	81	-0.1	232/265/340	108	266	12	4	18%	3%	69	-0.9	234/266/326	92	275	9	2	18%	3%	66	-0.6
✕Edgard Clemente 2010 · AAA	34	46	50	39→40	49	236/302/386	150	279	18	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	246/305/399	153	301	17	8	23%	7%	99	+1.2	225/287/381	156	284	20	9	28%	6%	84	+0.0
✕Bryan Holaday 2020 · MLB	32	46	45	38→40	48	230/289/352	123	258	13	4	17%	6%	82	-0.0	222/283/363	141	267	15	7	23%	7%	82	-0.0	186/238/360	174	219	21	4	27%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Russ Johnson 2007 · MLB	34	46→45	47→50	40→45	53	230/297/367	138	252	15	6	16%	8%	88	+0.5	223/285/347	124	242	13	8	14%	8%	78	-0.3	212/270/320	109	223	11	6	11%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Jonathan Aceves 2013 · AAA	35	43	47→50	42→30	42	220/269/354	135	276	15	6	26%	6%	75	-0.5	211/264/333	122	256	14	4	23%	6%	68	-1.0	228/295/332	104	273	11	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	48→56	48→45	38→50	48	242/306/381	139	289	15	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	244/292/353	109	288	11	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/288/341	96	292	10	15	19%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Nick Hundley 2018 · MLB	34	50→45	51→55	42→40	42	251/291/417	166	302	17	4	23%	5%	97	+1.1	232/279/394	162	302	19	5	29%	6%	87	+0.4	219/266/377	158	287	19	3	30%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Brooks Conrad 2015 · MLB	35	39→43	55	38→50	41	212/266/391	180	271	24	3	32%	7%	82	+0.0	190/250/311	121	256	13	6	30%	6%	57	-1.8	137/201/214	77	188	7	3	30%	6%	15	-2.5
✕Chris Widger 2006 · MLB	35	48	47→60	39→40	49	239/295/378	139	263	14	5	16%	7%	90	+0.6	225/296/354	129	267	14	7	20%	9%	84	+0.2	167/252/229	62	211	6	0	22%	10%	41	-0.5
✕Luis Antonio Rodriguez 2014 · MLB	34	45→50	44→45	40→45	50	218/275/334	116	235	11	5	14%	7%	72	-0.7	229/284/330	101	263	10	7	16%	6%	74	-0.5	267/314/333	66	308	7	4	15%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Miguel Ojeda 2009 · MLB	34	48→45	43→45	42→45	49	234/296/346	111	272	9	8	18%	7%	82	+0.0	237/299/363	126	272	13	8	18%	8%	87	+0.4	235/297/350	116	268	13	5	17%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Miguel Olivo 2013 · MLB	35	43→50	53→60	40→50	37	231/260/394	163	280	22	8	27%	4%	80	-0.1	234/272/390	156	303	19	8	29%	4%	84	+0.1	216/254/339	124	304	13	8	32%	4%	62	-0.7
✕Andy Abad 2007 · AAA	34	47→48	49→50	39→45	47	238/287/382	144	252	17	4	15%	6%	88	+0.4	231/276/350	119	259	14	8	17%	5%	76	-0.4	227/266/329	102	253	13	7	16%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Mike Freeman 2021 · MLB	33	49→59	45	43→55	47	236/307/357	121	310	13	8	27%	8%	89	+0.5	216/290/328	112	289	11	8	27%	9%	76	-0.4	185/264/270	85	252	8	6	28%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Mike Matheny 2005 · MLB	34	49→52	41→45	37→30	45	238/281/339	101	277	9	2	18%	5%	74	-0.5	235/277/370	135	271	14	3	19%	5%	81	-0.1	229/269/373	143	261	14	0	18%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Henry Blanco 2005 · MLB	33	41	47→50	35→40	48	207/260/344	138	224	15	3	16%	6%	69	-0.9	232/279/377	145	253	16	3	15%	6%	83	+0.1	254/304/390	137	291	14	0	18%	7%	96	+0.4
✕Nick Green 2013 · MLB	34	42→46	46→50	42→45	41	215/261/349	134	257	14	5	23%	4%	70	-0.8	201/249/317	116	260	13	6	27%	5%	59	-1.7	161/207/246	84	213	10	1	29%	4%	24	-2.9

Michael Pérez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps