Aramis Garcia

C Reno Aces

Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 228 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.905 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	AAAPHI	278	.159/.217/.279	8	6	-4	—	.118/.162/.194
2025	32	AAAARI	296	.266/.392/.481	14	0	88	—	.215/.309/.375
2026	33	AAAARI	157	.233/.342/.451	6	1	57	—	.179/.258/.329
2026	33	MLBARI	19	.158/.158/.316	1	0	29	0.2
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBARI	16	.223/.296/.377	0	0	86	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBARI	6	.213/.284/.354	0	0	77	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.905First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.7M2031Ext$1M2032Ext$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Chase%63

Z-Con%55

BB%54

Whiff%51

Speed48

Max EV46

CompsJohn Buck (age 34) · Anthony Recker (age 33) · Curt Casali (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .296 / .377

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP288

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

100.125

POWER60

Barrel%

244.9

Avg EV

1054.5

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1725.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2018

Service 0.905 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	21	ROK	AZL Giants	—	38	32	7	3	0	0	5	6	0	0	0	219	324	312	637	94	269	16	13	288	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	San Jose Giants	—	84	75	17	4	0	0	9	22	0	1	0	227	310	280	590	53	321	26	11	276	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	319	87	15	1	15	35	77	5	0	1	273	354	467	821	194	312	21	10	360	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+	San Jose Giants	—	160	144	37	6	0	2	14	42	0	1	0	257	323	340	663	83	350	26	9	299	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	ROK	AZL Giants	—	23	22	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	227	227	273	500	45	227	4	0	213	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	56	47	9	1	0	1	5	17	3	0	0	191	309	277	586	85	267	30	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	89	78	22	12	0	0	9	21	1	0	0	282	364	436	800	154	379	24	10	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+	San Jose Giants	—	347	324	88	20	1	17	15	73	6	0	0	272	316	497	813	225	301	21	4	354	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	58	54	14	1	0	1	1	15	2	0	0	259	298	333	632	74	333	26	2	283	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	65	63	18	1	0	4	2	31	0	0	0	286	308	492	800	206	500	48	3	350	132	+2	+0	+1	-8	+1	-0.3
2018	25	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	41	38	9	1	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	237	275	263	538	26	333	29	5	242	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	328	301	70	14	1	11	20	76	4	0	1	233	289	395	685	163	272	23	6	302	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	46	42	6	1	0	2	4	21	0	0	0	143	217	310	527	167	211	46	9	238	42	-3	+0	+1	+7	+1	0.7
2019	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	371	332	90	20	2	16	34	114	3	0	2	271	344	488	832	217	365	31	9	364	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	94	88	18	1	0	3	1	28	3	0	0	205	239	318	557	114	263	30	1	246	57	-5	+0	-1	+4	+2	0.0
2021	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	124	112	30	8	0	2	9	27	1	0	0	268	328	393	721	125	329	22	7	319	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	23	22	4	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	182	182	182	364		286	39	0	157	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	115	108	23	2	0	1	3	34	2	0	1	213	248	259	507	46	301	30	3	229	39	-8	-0	+4	+2	+2	0.0
2022	29	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	22	21	4	2	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	190	227	429	656	238	273	41	5	284	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	210	195	49	11	0	14	8	56	5	3	0	251	298	523	821	272	276	27	4	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	278	258	41	7	0	8	13	99	6	6	1	159	217	279	496	120	217	36	5	225	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA	Reno Aces	—	296	241	64	10	0	14	45	81	5	0	0	266	392	481	873	216	331	27	15	383	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	19	19	3	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	0	158	158	316	474	158	167	32	0	205	29	-2	+0	+0	+3	+0	0.2
2026	33	AAA	Reno Aces	—	157	133	31	9	1	6	18	42	4	1	0	233	342	451	793	218	291	27	11	349	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	339	320	68	5	0	11	10	120	5	0	1	212	248	331	579	119	302	35	3	257	60	-16	-0	+5	+10	+7	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	38	34	5	2	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	147	216	206	422	59	206	24	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	84	78	14	3	0	0	6	30	0	1	0	179	238	218	456	38	283	36	7	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	363	331	72	11	1	12	23	103	5	0	1	218	279	366	644	148	264	28	6	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	160	148	31	5	0	2	10	56	0	1	0	209	259	284	543	74	309	35	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	23	22	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	182	182	227	409	45	176	4	0	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	89	80	19	9	0	0	7	27	1	0	0	237	307	350	657	112	345	30	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	San Jose Giants	—	347	328	70	14	1	14	11	96	6	0	0	213	252	390	642	177	250	28	3	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	65	63	18	1	0	4	2	31	0	0	0	286	308	492	800	206	500	48	3	363	132	+2	+0	+1	-8	+1	-0.3
2018	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	41	39	8	1	0	0	1	14	0	0	0	205	225	231	456	26	320	34	2	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	328	307	63	12	1	9	14	95	4	0	1	205	249	339	588	134	258	29	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	46	43	6	1	0	2	3	21	0	0	0	140	196	302	498	163	211	46	7	231	42	-3	+0	+1	+7	+1	0.7
2019	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	371	341	66	14	1	11	25	151	3	0	2	194	255	337	592	144	308	41	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	94	88	18	1	0	3	1	28	3	0	0	205	239	318	557	114	263	30	1	253	57	-5	+0	-1	+4	+2	0.0
2021	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	124	115	22	6	0	1	6	33	1	0	0	191	238	270	507	78	255	27	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	115	108	23	2	0	1	3	34	2	0	1	213	248	259	507	46	301	30	3	227	39	-8	-0	+4	+2	+2	0.0
2022	29	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	22	21	2	1	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	95	136	143	279	48	229	50	5	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	210	198	35	7	0	9	5	67	5	3	0	177	216	348	565	172	211	32	2	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	278	263	31	5	0	5	8	116	6	6	1	118	162	194	356	76	184	42	3	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	296	256	55	8	0	11	30	95	5	0	0	215	309	375	684	160	272	32	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	19	19	3	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	0	158	158	316	474	158	167	32	0	211	29	-2	+0	+0	+3	+0	0.2
2026	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	157	140	25	7	1	4	11	50	4	1	0	179	258	329	587	150	229	32	7	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	38	34	5	2	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	147	216	206	422	59	200	24	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	—	38	32	7	3	0	0	5	6	0	0	0	219	324	312	637	94	269	16	13	288	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	447	408	84	13	1	12	30	133	5	1	1	206	269	331	600	125	270	30	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	447	394	104	19	1	15	44	99	5	1	1	264	345	431	777	168	313	22	10	345	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	239	219	44	7	0	2	13	76	3	1	0	201	255	260	516	59	294	32	5	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	239	213	51	8	0	3	19	60	3	1	0	239	311	319	630	80	316	25	8	285	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	494	461	101	27	1	16	20	140	9	0	0	219	265	386	651	167	275	28	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	494	456	124	33	1	18	25	109	9	0	0	272	322	467	790	195	318	22	5	345	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	434	409	91	14	1	14	17	141	4	0	1	222	260	364	625	142	298	32	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	434	402	97	16	1	15	24	119	4	0	1	241	291	398	689	157	301	27	6	304	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	417	384	73	15	1	13	28	172	3	0	2	190	251	336	587	146	300	41	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	417	374	96	21	2	18	38	135	3	0	2	257	330	468	798	211	351	32	9	350	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	241	225	46	8	0	5	7	67	4	0	0	204	242	307	548	102	263	28	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	241	222	52	9	0	5	10	64	4	0	0	234	280	342	622	108	301	27	4	275	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	137	129	25	3	0	1	4	45	2	0	1	194	230	240	470	47	289	33	3	218	34	-11	-0	+4	+2	+3	-0.2
2022	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	137	129	27	4	0	2	4	43	2	0	1	209	244	287	531	78	298	31	3	238	34	-11	-0	+4	+2	+3	-0.2
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	210	198	35	7	0	9	5	67	5	3	0	177	216	348	565	172	210	32	2	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	210	195	49	11	0	14	8	56	5	3	0	251	298	523	821	272	276	27	4	353	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	278	263	31	5	0	5	8	116	6	6	1	118	162	194	356	76	182	42	3	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	278	258	41	7	0	8	13	99	6	6	1	159	217	279	496	120	217	36	5	225	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	296	256	55	8	0	11	30	95	5	0	0	215	309	375	684	160	284	32	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	296	241	64	10	0	14	45	81	5	0	0	266	392	481	873	216	331	27	15	383	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	176	159	28	7	1	5	11	56	4	1	0	176	247	327	574	151	232	32	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	176	152	34	9	1	7	18	48	4	1	0	224	322	434	756	211	276	27	10	333	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	38	35	5	2	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	143	216	200	416	57	206	24	8	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	447	409	84	13	1	12	30	133	5	1	1	205	269	330	599	125	268	30	7	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	239	221	44	7	0	2	13	76	3	1	0	199	255	258	513	59	292	32	5	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	494	462	101	27	1	16	20	140	9	0	0	219	265	385	651	167	269	28	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	434	410	91	14	1	14	17	141	4	0	1	222	260	363	624	141	300	32	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	417	383	73	15	1	13	28	172	3	0	2	191	251	337	587	146	297	41	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	241	228	46	8	0	5	7	67	4	0	0	202	242	303	544	101	259	28	3	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	137	130	25	3	0	1	4	45	2	0	1	192	230	238	468	46	290	33	3	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	210	198	35	7	0	9	5	67	5	3	0	177	216	348	565	172	211	32	2	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	278	262	31	5	0	5	8	116	6	6	1	118	162	195	357	76	184	42	3	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	296	259	55	8	0	11	30	95	5	0	0	212	309	371	680	158	272	32	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	176	159	28	7	1	5	11	56	4	1	0	176	247	327	574	151	222	32	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	278	262	31	5	0	5	8	116	6	6	1	118	162	195	357	76	184	42	3	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	296	259	55	8	0	11	30	95	5	0	0	212	309	371	680	158	272	32	10	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	176	159	28	7	1	5	11	56	4	1	0	176	247	327	574	151	222	32	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	255	229	51	10	1	8	20	72	4	3	1	218	291	370	661	152	278	28	8	295	86	-4	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	223	296	377	672	154	288	31	6	300	86	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	ARI	6%	105	94	20	4	0	3	8	30	2	0	0	208	280	348	628	140	270	29	8	282	77	-3	+0	-5	+2	+2	-0.4
2028	35	MLB CTX	ARI	6%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	213	284	354	638	141	279	33	0	286	77	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	345	326	69	5	0	11	10	122	5	0	1	212	246	328	575	117	301	35	3	257	58	-16	-0	+5	+10	+7	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	614	130	9	0	21	19	230	9	0	2	212	246	329	575	117	300	35	3	257	58	-31	-1	+9	+18	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3670	3382	670	126	6	101	196	1192	54	14	6	198	253	329	582	130	269	32	5	255	58	-22	+0	-0	+14	+13	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	118	22	1	18	35	211	10	2	1	197	253	327	581	130	267	32	5	255	58	-23	+0	-1	+15	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAReno Aces · 157 PAwOBA .339 → .253 (−86)K% 26.8% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	32.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.83%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.04%
HBP% /PA	2.55%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	2.26%
Singles /BIP	16.48%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.957	×0.942	13.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.89%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.957	×0.942	7.40%
Triples /BIP	1.10%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.957	×0.942	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	6.59%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	4.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .339 → .253; ISO .218 → .155; BABIP .291 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAReno Aces · 296 PAwOBA .378 → .299 (−79)K% 27.4% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.36%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	32.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.86%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.952	10.13%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.51%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.975	×0.952	21.71%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.069	×0.830	×0.975	×0.952	4.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.970	×0.975	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.75%	÷0.904	×0.700	—	×0.952	6.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .378 → .299; ISO .216 → .165; BABIP .331 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 278 PAwOBA .220 → .163 (−57)K% 35.6% → 41.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.61%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	41.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.68%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.04%
HBP% /PA	2.16%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.95%
Singles /BIP	16.35%	÷0.985	×0.930	×0.968	×0.962	14.37%
Doubles /BIP	4.40%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.968	×0.962	3.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.968	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.03%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.43%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .220 → .163; ISO .120 → .079; BABIP .217 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 210 PAwOBA .346 → .244 (−102)K% 26.7% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	32.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.81%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×0.972	2.60%
HBP% /PA	2.38%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.18%
Singles /BIP	17.27%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	14.59%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷1.117	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	5.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.105	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.07%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.67%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .244; ISO .272 → .173; BABIP .276 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 22 PAwOBA .276 → .173 (−102)K% 40.9% → 51.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.91%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	51.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.982	3.01%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×0.982	7.64%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×0.982	14.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.47%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .276 → .173; ISO .238 → .132; BABIP .273 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 124 PAwOBA .316 → .238 (−78)K% 21.8% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.77%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.26%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.59%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.75%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷1.156	×0.930	×0.972	×0.992	18.25%
Doubles /BIP	9.41%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.972	×0.992	7.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.956	×0.920	×0.972	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.35%	÷0.941	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.74%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 131, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 99, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .316 → .238; ISO .125 → .095; BABIP .329 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 371 PAwOBA .355 → .261 (−95)K% 30.7% → 40.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.73%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	40.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.16%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.76%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.81%
Singles /BIP	23.85%	÷0.982	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	21.14%
Doubles /BIP	9.17%	÷0.981	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	7.33%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.008	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	7.34%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×1.018	5.68%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .355 → .261; ISO .217 → .149; BABIP .365 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 328 PAwOBA .297 → .257 (−40)K% 23.2% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.17%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	28.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.10%	÷0.983	×0.700	—	×0.998	4.33%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.03%
Singles /BIP	19.56%	÷0.995	×0.970	×0.999	×0.998	19.01%
Doubles /BIP	6.22%	÷0.949	×0.860	×0.999	×0.998	5.62%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.999	×0.998	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	4.89%	÷0.869	×0.780	—	×0.998	4.38%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .297 → .257; ISO .163 → .139; BABIP .272 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Joel Skinner'83-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,551 PA	2.3	1,551	17	3	227*	270*	327*	+27	-0	-0.6	0.2
/162	664	7	1	+11.7	-0.1	-0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.4	296	9	0	226	258	337	+5	+2	0.1	0.1
/162	664	19	0	+11.4	+4.8	0.3	pk7: 0
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aramis Garcia (OGILVIE)	34	50	60	45	60	216/289/367	151	278	5	2	28%	8%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Buck 2014 · MLB	34	42→52	51→60	43→30	48	221/293/376	155	261	21	3	24%	8%	89	+0.5	232/296/358	126	288	15	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	229/290/300	70	298	6	0	24%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Anthony Recker 2017 · MLB	33	40→48	49→50	48→45	47	208/286/351	143	274	17	5	30%	9%	81	-0.1	204/267/343	139	278	15	5	31%	7%	72	-0.7	182/239/318	136	247	15	1	32%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Curt Casali 2023 · MLB	34	44	49→50	48→30	52	219/317/366	147	293	17	4	29%	11%	96	+1.0	223/315/328	105	288	10	4	24%	10%	86	+0.3	214/312/278	65	277	4	0	22%	10%	74	-0.2
✕Nick Hundley 2018 · MLB	34	50→45	51→55	42→40	42	251/291/417	166	302	17	4	23%	5%	97	+1.1	232/279/394	162	302	19	5	29%	6%	87	+0.4	219/266/377	158	287	19	3	30%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Miguel Olivo 2012 · MLB	34	45→50	54→60	45→50	38	236/272/409	172	291	23	8	28%	5%	88	+0.5	234/266/399	165	293	22	6	28%	4%	84	+0.1	230/263/370	140	302	17	9	29%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Carlos Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	38→48	53→55	46→45	46	209/273/378	169	228	23	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0	209/273/380	171	232	21	3	21%	7%	82	+0.0	196/260/370	174	213	22	1	21%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Kelly Stinnett 2004 · MLB	34	48	48→50	46→40	46	237/304/381	144	299	15	6	25%	7%	94	+0.9	240/302/382	142	301	17	5	25%	7%	93	+0.8	194/242/296	103	244	14	0	27%	5%	50	-0.6
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Cody Ransom 2010 · MLB	34	39	51→55	49→50	45	208/273/373	166	259	19	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	215/278/388	173	280	21	8	30%	7%	86	+0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
●Chris Iannetta 2017 · MLB	34	43→53	47→60	44→45	55	218/314/354	137	273	15	3	25%	12%	92	+0.7	228/324/405	177	285	21	2	26%	11%	107	+1.9	221/324/409	187	276	23	0	27%	12%	110	+1.0
✕James McCann 2024 · MLB	34	44→54	46→50	47→45	42	222/278/352	130	283	14	7	27%	6%	77	-0.3	237/285/389	152	294	19	5	26%	5%	88	+0.5	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2022 · MLB	34	42→46	51→55	47→30	41	219/273/373	154	283	20	5	30%	6%	80	-0.1	212/281/344	132	276	15	5	28%	8%	77	-0.3	183/264/297	115	232	13	0	26%	8%	58	-0.9
✕Michael McKenry 2017 · MLB	32	45→47	48→55	44→40	54	221/316/371	150	289	15	7	27%	11%	97	+1.1	201/287/318	117	283	11	6	30%	10%	74	-0.6	159/252/243	84	230	7	0	31%	10%	42	-1.3
✕Taylor Motter 2023 · MLB	33	40→49	54→50	49→55	51	216/293/397	181	254	23	4	25%	10%	94	+0.9	208/272/342	134	281	15	11	30%	8%	73	-0.6	181/242/282	101	257	10	13	32%	7%	45	-1.4
✕Chris Gimenez 2017 · MLB	34	43→53	45→50	47→45	45	217/276/335	119	272	14	5	26%	7%	73	-0.6	205/285/326	121	281	13	6	30%	9%	75	-0.5	181/273/291	110	254	12	3	31%	10%	63	-0.6
✕Austin Romine 2022 · MLB	33	49→54	46→50	46→45	38	243/280/368	125	324	14	5	29%	5%	81	-0.1	214/260/330	116	289	13	6	30%	5%	65	-1.2	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3

Aramis Garcia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps