Sean Bouchard

RF Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 31 R/R 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA HR +30%H +12% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	27	AAA/A+/INTL2 orgs	196	.196/.332/.356	6	8	74	—	.207/.322/.321
2023	27	MLBCOL	43	.316/.381/.684	4	0	169	0.2
2024	28	AAACOL	208	.324/.418/.642	11	5	114	—	.255/.327/.473
2024	28	MLBCOL	108	.187/.295/.297	1	4	65	-0.8
2025	29	AAACOL	300	.234/.375/.406	9	10	56	—	.169/.274/.284
2025	29	MLBCOL	73	.167/.247/.242	1	1	33	-1.0
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBCOL	24	.218/.307/.381	1	1	83	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBCOL	68	.212/.300/.366	2	1	78	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.000First FA2028

2027Arb-3$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd64

Avg EV48

Speed36

Barrel%35

xwOBA19

CompsDavid Matranga (age 31) · Justin Leone (age 31) · Cody Ransom (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8583vR 75

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .307 / .381

PA24

HR1

K%29

BB%8

BABIP290

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT30

xAVG

100.184

POWER35

Barrel%

356.2

Avg EV

4889.0

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 181 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

248

255

▶R

ISO

079

113

▶▶R

BABIP

271

264

—

32.6%

33.7%

◀L

BB%

9.3%

11.6%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2022

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A	Asheville Tourists	—	515	463	119	34	2	14	41	128	7	22	9	257	327	430	757	173	323	25	8	334	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	391	349	102	28	2	13	33	102	3	8	4	292	358	496	854	203	372	26	8	370	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	381	342	91	30	3	14	33	101	4	8	4	266	338	494	832	228	336	27	9	363	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	97	74	22	6	0	3	21	25	1	0	0	297	458	500	958	203	404	26	22	424	166	+8	+0	-1	-4	+2	0.5
2022	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	312	260	78	15	6	20	44	70	4	12	2	300	409	635	1.044	335	333	22	14	441	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	43	38	12	2	0	4	4	14	0	0	1	316	381	684	1.065	368	381	33	9	444	169	+4	-0	+1	-3	+1	0.2
2023	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	71	54	12	2	0	1	17	14	0	5	0	222	408	315	723	93	282	20	24	347	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	A+	Spokane Indians	—	19	18	6	2	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	333	368	611	980	278	417	26	0	426	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	106	91	14	4	0	4	13	29	2	3	0	154	274	330	603	176	172	27	12	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	108	91	17	7	0	1	12	33	2	4	0	187	295	297	592	110	271	31	11	269	65	-5	+1	-3	-3	+2	-0.8
2024	28	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	208	179	58	12	6	11	25	47	4	5	2	324	418	642	1.061	318	388	23	12	455	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	73	66	11	0	1	1	7	27	0	1	1	167	247	242	489	76	263	37	10	229	33	-6	-0	-2	-4	+2	-1.0
2025	29	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	300	244	57	11	2	9	50	91	5	10	2	234	375	406	780	172	331	30	17	354	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	321	269	62	15	1	9	44	99	3	5	2	230	345	394	739	164	321	31	14	330	110	+4	+0	-4	-14	+7	-0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	515	476	90	22	2	10	28	172	7	22	9	189	245	307	551	118	263	33	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	391	357	70	19	1	8	25	144	3	8	4	196	255	322	577	126	289	37	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	381	353	74	24	3	11	22	120	4	8	4	210	264	388	652	178	279	31	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	97	74	22	6	0	3	21	25	1	0	0	297	458	500	958	203	404	26	22	414	166	+8	+0	-1	-4	+2	0.5
2022	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	312	271	64	12	5	14	33	84	4	12	2	236	328	472	800	236	276	27	11	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	43	38	12	2	0	4	4	14	0	0	1	316	381	684	1.065	368	381	33	9	418	169	+4	-0	+1	-3	+1	0.2
2023	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	71	59	12	2	0	1	12	18	0	5	0	203	338	288	626	85	252	25	17	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	19	18	4	1	0	1	0	7	1	0	0	222	263	444	708	222	336	37	0	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	108	91	17	7	0	1	12	33	2	4	0	187	295	297	592	110	271	31	11	264	65	-5	+1	-3	-3	+2	-0.8
2024	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	208	188	48	10	5	7	16	58	4	5	2	255	327	473	800	218	324	28	8	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	73	66	11	0	1	1	7	27	0	1	1	167	247	242	489	76	263	37	10	217	33	-6	-0	-2	-4	+2	-1.0
2025	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	300	261	44	8	2	6	33	116	5	10	2	169	274	284	558	115	264	39	11	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	515	476	90	22	2	10	28	172	7	22	9	189	245	307	551	118	268	33	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	515	463	119	34	2	14	41	128	7	22	9	257	327	430	757	173	323	25	8	334	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	391	357	70	19	1	8	25	144	3	8	4	196	255	322	577	126	295	37	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	—	391	349	102	28	2	13	33	102	3	8	4	292	358	496	854	203	372	26	8	370	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	381	353	74	24	3	11	22	120	4	8	4	210	264	388	652	178	281	31	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	—	381	342	91	30	3	14	33	101	4	8	4	266	338	494	832	228	336	27	9	363	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	409	345	85	18	5	16	54	109	5	12	2	246	356	467	823	220	307	27	13	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	409	334	100	21	6	23	65	95	5	12	2	299	421	605	1.026	305	348	23	16	437	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	239	206	48	9	0	9	29	69	3	8	1	233	336	408	744	175	302	29	12	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL RAW	4 teams	—	239	201	44	10	0	10	34	62	3	8	1	219	340	418	758	199	262	26	14	340	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	316	279	63	16	5	8	28	91	6	9	2	226	310	405	715	179	302	29	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	316	270	75	19	6	12	37	80	6	9	2	278	377	526	903	248	350	25	12	391	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	327	53	8	2	7	40	142	5	11	3	162	263	263	526	101	257	38	11	244	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	373	310	68	11	3	10	57	118	5	11	3	219	349	371	720	152	317	32	15	330	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	515	475	90	22	2	10	28	172	7	22	9	189	245	307	552	118	263	33	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	391	360	70	19	1	8	25	144	3	8	4	194	255	319	574	125	289	37	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	381	352	74	24	3	11	22	120	4	8	4	210	264	389	653	179	279	31	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	409	347	85	18	5	16	54	109	5	12	2	245	356	464	820	219	306	27	13	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	239	205	48	9	0	9	29	69	3	8	1	234	336	410	746	176	306	29	12	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	316	279	63	16	5	8	28	91	6	9	2	226	310	405	715	179	306	29	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	325	53	8	2	7	40	142	5	11	3	163	263	265	528	102	264	38	11	244	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	316	279	63	16	5	8	28	91	6	9	2	226	310	405	715	179	306	29	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	373	325	53	8	2	7	40	142	5	11	3	163	263	265	528	102	264	38	11	244	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	COL	10%	380	334	69	13	3	10	38	113	5	9	2	205	296	349	644	143	274	30	10	291	83	-8	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	COL	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	1	0	218	307	381	688	163	290	29	8	308	83	-0	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	COL	27%	250	220	44	8	2	6	25	75	3	3	1	200	289	335	624	135	269	30	10	283	78	-7	+0	-4	-3	+5	-0.8
2028	32	MLB CTX	COL	27%	68	60	13	2	1	2	7	21	1	1	0	212	300	366	666	154	284	31	10	299	78	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	389	329	75	17	2	11	51	120	4	6	2	228	339	392	731	164	317	31	13	325	78	+2	+0	-5	-15	+8	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	550	124	28	3	18	85	201	7	10	3	225	337	385	722	160	314	31	13	325	78	+3	+1	-9	-25	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3112	2772	570	132	22	81	275	993	39	86	28	206	286	357	643	151	284	32	9	283	78	-8	+1	-9	-20	+18	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	120	28	5	17	57	207	8	18	6	207	287	361	648	154	286	32	9	283	78	-6	+0	-7	-16	+14	-1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 300 PAwOBA .347 → .251 (−97)K% 30.3% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.33%	÷0.945	×1.200	—	—	38.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.019	×0.690	—	×0.982	11.08%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.54%
Singles /BIP	22.88%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	18.95%
Doubles /BIP	7.19%	÷1.029	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	5.41%
Triples /BIP	1.31%	÷1.028	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	1.15%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.017	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.98%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 106, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .251; ISO .172 → .118; BABIP .331 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 208 PAwOBA .441 → .337 (−105)K% 22.6% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.60%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	27.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×0.992	7.76%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.79%
Singles /BIP	21.97%	÷0.990	×0.930	×0.963	×0.992	19.73%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.963	×0.992	7.30%
Triples /BIP	4.55%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.963	×0.992	3.66%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×0.992	5.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .441 → .337; ISO .318 → .222; BABIP .388 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 71 PAwOBA .340 → .271 (−69)K% 19.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.72%	÷0.947	×1.200	—	—	24.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.94%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×1.003	16.84%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.50%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×1.003	20.61%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.002	×0.830	—	×1.003	4.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.062	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .340 → .271; ISO .093 → .070; BABIP .282 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 19 PAwOBA .413 → .292 (−121)K% 26.3% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷0.983	×1.350	—	—	36.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.075	×0.710	—	×0.958	0.00%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.810	—	×0.958	4.08%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.019	×0.910	—	×0.958	19.74%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.026	×0.830	—	×0.958	11.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.820	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.047	×0.830	—	×0.958	5.84%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 87, K 97, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .413 → .292; ISO .278 → .186; BABIP .417 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 312 PAwOBA .435 → .339 (−96)K% 22.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.44%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	27.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.10%	÷0.945	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.48%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.23%
Singles /BIP	19.47%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.980	×1.018	17.26%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷1.038	×0.830	×0.980	×1.018	6.30%
Triples /BIP	3.16%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.980	×1.018	2.66%
Home runs /BIP	10.53%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.018	7.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .435 → .339; ISO .335 → .241; BABIP .333 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAHartford Yard Goats · 381 PAwOBA .355 → .278 (−77)K% 26.5% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.51%	÷1.022	×1.220	—	—	31.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.66%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×0.998	5.84%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.89%
Singles /BIP	18.26%	÷1.047	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	15.55%
Doubles /BIP	12.45%	÷1.010	×0.870	×0.950	×0.998	10.17%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷0.956	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	5.81%	÷0.990	×0.780	—	×0.998	4.57%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 102, 3B 91, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .355 → .278; ISO .228 → .179; BABIP .336 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 391 PAwOBA .365 → .255 (−110)K% 26.1% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷0.950	×1.340	—	—	36.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.44%	÷0.935	×0.710	—	×0.998	6.39%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.60%
Singles /BIP	23.89%	÷1.079	×0.910	×0.950	×0.998	19.11%
Doubles /BIP	11.34%	÷1.001	×0.820	×0.950	×0.998	8.80%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷1.065	×0.760	×0.950	×0.998	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.278	×0.920	—	×0.998	3.78%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 116, 2B 100, 3B 113, K 90, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .365 → .255; ISO .203 → .134; BABIP .372 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAsheville Tourists · 515 PAwOBA .328 → .239 (−89)K% 24.9% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.85%	÷0.997	×1.340	—	—	33.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.96%	÷0.970	×0.660	—	—	5.42%
HBP% /PA	1.36%	—	×0.770	—	—	1.05%
Singles /BIP	20.60%	÷0.991	×0.920	×0.950	—	18.16%
Doubles /BIP	10.15%	÷1.110	×0.820	×0.950	—	7.12%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.950	—	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	4.18%	÷1.111	×0.820	—	—	3.08%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .239; ISO .173 → .117; BABIP .323 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ted Savage'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,613 PA	2.4	1,613	34	49	233*	335*	390*	-13	+0	3.4	3.8
/162	664	14	20	-5.5	+0.1	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Norm Miller'65-'74 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	24	16	238*	325*	391*	-14	-3	2.4	2.7
/162	664	10	7	-6.1	-1.3	1.0	pk7: 3
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	2.5	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
/162	664	26	2	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.6	370	7	6	212	323	344	-4	-5	0.3	0.4
/162	664	13	12	-7.1	-8.6	0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Sean Bouchard (OGILVIE)	31	30	35	45	60	204/293/345	142	274	6	5	30%	10%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	39	46→45	51→50	43	203/270/324	121	261	14	13	28%	7%	69	-0.9	213/288/335	122	287	13	9	29%	8%	78	-0.3	202/285/316	114	275	11	5	29%	8%	71	-0.3
✕Justin Leone 2008 · AAA	31	41→39	48→50	53→55	49	210/287/354	144	268	16	15	28%	9%	82	-0.0	192/268/328	136	258	15	15	30%	9%	69	-0.9	163/242/288	125	216	15	14	31%	9%	50	-1.3
✕Cody Ransom 2007 · MLB	31	38→39	49→55	46→50	41	200/260/342	142	271	17	7	32%	7%	69	-0.9	204/268/369	165	259	20	12	29%	7%	78	-0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Jason Repko 2012 · MLB	31	45→47	45→50	52→55	44	225/283/340	115	281	13	21	25%	6%	76	-0.4	215/275/344	129	278	14	14	27%	7%	75	-0.5	181/242/317	136	231	13	10	27%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Jett Bandy 2021 · MLB	31	39	49→50	44→45	38	208/269/350	142	268	18	6	30%	5%	74	-0.5	213/278/331	118	299	13	8	31%	6%	73	-0.6	163/234/229	66	238	8	0	33%	5%	34	-0.7
✕Jonathan Davis 2022 · MLB	30	40→50	44→45	52→55	48	198/301/313	115	267	11	19	28%	9%	79	-0.2	220/302/329	109	302	9	22	28%	9%	82	-0.0	216/296/320	104	303	8	22	29%	8%	75	-0.2
✕Webster Rivas 2022 · MLB	31	44	44→40	47→40	47	219/282/328	109	274	12	4	24%	8%	74	-0.6	219/296/313	94	291	7	6	25%	10%	75	-0.5	206/296/269	64	282	2	2	25%	11%	63	-0.7
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	40→42	51→55	48→45	48	211/290/369	159	273	20	5	30%	9%	86	+0.3	208/288/370	162	288	20	3	33%	10%	86	+0.3	194/280/355	161	272	21	0	35%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Donnie Sadler 2006 · MLB	31	45	45→40	48→55	48	223/293/350	127	278	12	12	24%	8%	82	+0.0	220/288/332	112	284	8	14	24%	8%	76	-0.4	205/275/306	101	271	4	16	24%	9%	62	-0.4
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	43→42	46→50	49→50	42	216/272/344	128	288	14	11	30%	6%	74	-0.6	203/269/353	150	324	19	14	41%	7%	75	-0.5	141/210/279	138	225	21	18	47%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Clint Coulter 2023 · AAA	30	42→43	50	43→40	41	220/282/374	154	273	18	5	26%	6%	84	+0.2	221/288/353	132	266	13	9	22%	6%	82	-0.0	201/273/314	113	238	10	9	20%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	51→55	46	222/286/329	107	283	11	16	25%	8%	75	-0.5	217/287/377	160	280	19	14	29%	8%	87	+0.4	194/268/371	176	242	23	14	30%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Mario Lisson 2015 · AAA	31	43→49	49→50	47→55	45	222/290/369	146	272	17	12	25%	7%	86	+0.3	220/284/341	121	288	14	8	27%	7%	78	-0.3	208/273/315	108	275	12	6	28%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Michael Pérez 2024 · MLB	31	33	47→50	45→40	46	180/252/303	123	227	16	4	29%	8%	57	-1.8	205/274/328	123	274	14	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	182/256/298	116	243	13	0	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2013 · AAA	31	42	44→45	47→40	43	210/265/323	113	259	13	8	24%	6%	66	-1.1	215/266/326	111	284	12	7	28%	6%	67	-1.1	207/257/302	95	280	10	3	29%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Nick Gorneault 2010 · AAA	31	39→48	46→55	45→50	41	200/253/325	125	262	14	11	29%	6%	62	-1.4	206/257/335	129	273	14	10	29%	6%	65	-1.2	192/243/325	133	246	15	7	28%	6%	55	-1.2
✕Andy Burns 2022 · MLB	31	43→53	47→50	51→55	51	217/297/356	140	273	15	15	25%	10%	86	+0.3	203/274/313	110	283	11	12	30%	9%	68	-1.0	174/245/259	85	244	9	8	31%	8%	42	-1.6
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Chad Wallach 2023 · MLB	31	36→46	45→50	49→40	42	189/256/310	121	260	14	4	32%	7%	60	-1.6	200/264/333	133	276	16	5	32%	7%	68	-1.0	191/254/323	133	259	17	2	33%	7%	61	-0.7

Sean Bouchard

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps