Clint Coulter
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 28 | AAASTL | 142 | .234/.305/.461 | 8 | 0 | 45 | — | .174/.227/.318 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAASTL | 207 | .297/.379/.533 | 9 | 0 | 85 | — | .230/.301/.396 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAASF | 235 | .243/.333/.403 | 6 | 4 | 64 | — | .203/.278/.316 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers | — | 214 | 169 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 302 | 443 | 444 | 887 | 142 | 365 | 19 | 17 | 400 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 135 | 116 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 138 | 250 | 23 | 8 | 290 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 147 | 134 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 276 | 331 | 448 | 779 | 172 | 324 | 20 | 6 | 341 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 529 | 429 | 123 | 28 | 3 | 22 | 73 | 103 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 287 | 415 | 520 | 935 | 233 | 326 | 19 | 14 | 409 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 26 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 174 | 269 | 304 | 574 | 130 | 176 | 19 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 569 | 499 | 123 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 246 | 332 | 397 | 729 | 150 | 275 | 16 | 8 | 326 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 102 | 95 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 337 | 382 | 442 | 824 | 105 | 390 | 16 | 4 | 371 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 362 | 327 | 72 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 288 | 333 | 621 | 113 | 260 | 20 | 6 | 280 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 437 | 385 | 90 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 94 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 234 | 320 | 403 | 723 | 169 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 45 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 333 | 415 | 748 | 146 | 345 | 24 | 7 | 335 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 248 | 223 | 57 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 256 | 322 | 480 | 802 | 224 | 317 | 28 | 7 | 348 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 64 | 58 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 312 | 448 | 761 | 207 | 361 | 33 | 8 | 335 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 142 | 128 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 305 | 461 | 766 | 227 | 293 | 32 | 8 | 335 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 207 | 182 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 297 | 379 | 533 | 912 | 236 | 319 | 16 | 7 | 399 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 235 | 206 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 243 | 333 | 403 | 736 | 160 | 277 | 18 | 8 | 331 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 214 | 183 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 230 | 335 | 328 | 663 | 98 | 304 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 135 | 120 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 100 | 221 | 32 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 147 | 138 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 234 | 319 | 553 | 123 | 249 | 29 | 3 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 529 | 454 | 103 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 48 | 142 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 227 | 329 | 399 | 728 | 172 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 569 | 510 | 105 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 133 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 206 | 281 | 341 | 622 | 135 | 246 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 102 | 97 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 309 | 343 | 381 | 725 | 72 | 374 | 20 | 2 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 362 | 333 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 99 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 174 | 232 | 255 | 487 | 81 | 228 | 27 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 437 | 397 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 120 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 199 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 116 | 256 | 27 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 45 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 333 | 600 | 119 | 304 | 33 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 248 | 228 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 92 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 197 | 253 | 355 | 608 | 158 | 284 | 37 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 64 | 60 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 203 | 300 | 503 | 150 | 278 | 48 | 5 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 142 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 227 | 318 | 545 | 144 | 240 | 41 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 207 | 187 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 301 | 396 | 697 | 166 | 251 | 20 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 235 | 212 | 43 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 203 | 278 | 316 | 594 | 113 | 237 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 214 | 183 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 230 | 335 | 328 | 663 | 98 | 309 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Brewers | — | 214 | 169 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 302 | 443 | 444 | 887 | 142 | 365 | 19 | 17 | 400 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 257 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 85 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 238 | 284 | 522 | 105 | 241 | 30 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 282 | 250 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 60 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 318 | 400 | 718 | 156 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 317 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 555 | 477 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 149 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 226 | 328 | 398 | 726 | 172 | 285 | 27 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 555 | 452 | 127 | 28 | 3 | 23 | 75 | 108 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 281 | 408 | 509 | 917 | 228 | 318 | 19 | 14 | 402 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 569 | 510 | 105 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 133 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 206 | 281 | 341 | 622 | 135 | 251 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 569 | 499 | 123 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 92 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 246 | 332 | 397 | 729 | 150 | 275 | 16 | 8 | 326 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 464 | 429 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 118 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 259 | 291 | 550 | 86 | 265 | 25 | 4 | 244 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 464 | 422 | 104 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 87 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 309 | 358 | 667 | 111 | 290 | 19 | 5 | 300 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 437 | 397 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 120 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 199 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 116 | 261 | 27 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 437 | 385 | 90 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 94 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 234 | 320 | 403 | 723 | 169 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 330 | 64 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 138 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 194 | 249 | 342 | 591 | 148 | 296 | 39 | 5 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 357 | 322 | 82 | 21 | 4 | 13 | 25 | 102 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 322 | 466 | 788 | 211 | 329 | 29 | 7 | 344 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 142 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 227 | 318 | 545 | 144 | 257 | 41 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 142 | 128 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 305 | 461 | 766 | 227 | 293 | 32 | 8 | 335 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 207 | 187 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 301 | 396 | 697 | 166 | 262 | 20 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | Memphis Redbirds | — | 207 | 182 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 297 | 379 | 533 | 912 | 236 | 319 | 16 | 7 | 399 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 235 | 212 | 43 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 203 | 278 | 316 | 594 | 113 | 239 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 235 | 206 | 50 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 243 | 333 | 403 | 736 | 160 | 277 | 18 | 8 | 331 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Brewers | — | 214 | 183 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 230 | 335 | 328 | 663 | 98 | 304 | 27 | 11 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 260 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 85 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 177 | 238 | 281 | 519 | 104 | 236 | 30 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 555 | 478 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 149 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 226 | 328 | 397 | 725 | 172 | 275 | 27 | 9 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 569 | 511 | 105 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 133 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 205 | 281 | 341 | 621 | 135 | 246 | 23 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 464 | 430 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 118 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 259 | 291 | 549 | 86 | 260 | 25 | 4 | 244 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 437 | 397 | 79 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 120 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 199 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 116 | 256 | 27 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 330 | 64 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 138 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 194 | 249 | 342 | 591 | 148 | 285 | 39 | 5 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 142 | 132 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 227 | 318 | 545 | 144 | 240 | 41 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 207 | 186 | 43 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 301 | 398 | 699 | 167 | 251 | 20 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 235 | 211 | 43 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 278 | 318 | 595 | 114 | 237 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3462 | 3114 | 641 | 143 | 14 | 77 | 209 | 946 | 107 | 29 | 27 | 206 | 279 | 335 | 614 | 129 | 266 | 27 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -130 | -5 | +0 | -37 | +75 | -9.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 120 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 178 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 205 | 278 | 333 | 611 | 128 | 266 | 27 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -24 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 235 PAwOBA .324 → .263 (−61)K% 17.9% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.87% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.09% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 3.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.68% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 15.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.66% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 2.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .324 → .263; ISO .160 → .117; BABIP .277 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 207 PAwOBA .390 → .294 (−96)K% 15.9% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.94% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷1.053 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 4.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.13% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 16.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.40% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.04% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .390 → .294; ISO .236 → .164; BABIP .319 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 142 PAwOBA .328 → .235 (−93)K% 32.4% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.39% | ÷0.955 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.45% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.73% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.953 | ×0.992 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.029 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×0.992 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.76% | ÷0.949 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 7.14% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .328 → .235; ISO .227 → .154; BABIP .293 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 248 PAwOBA .343 → .267 (−76)K% 28.2% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.23% | ÷0.933 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.85% | ÷0.964 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.92% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 18.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.19% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.951 | ×0.998 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.19% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.33% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .343 → .267; ISO .224 → .166; BABIP .317 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Carolina Mudcats · 64 PAwOBA .326 → .203 (−123)K% 32.8% → 48.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.81% | ÷0.970 | ×1.420 | — | — | 48.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.81% | ÷0.990 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.978 | 11.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷1.150 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 13.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 2.36% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 113, 2B 130, 3B 96, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .203; ISO .207 → .125; BABIP .361 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 45 PAwOBA .326 → .249 (−77)K% 24.4% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷0.925 | ×1.290 | — | — | 34.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.985 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.033 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 8.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.124 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 85, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .326 → .249; ISO .146 → .099; BABIP .345 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 437 PAwOBA .316 → .255 (−61)K% 21.5% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.51% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.78% | ÷1.035 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.20% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.56% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 17.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.915 | ×0.880 | ×1.010 | ×1.012 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.393 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.80% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .316 → .255; ISO .169 → .119; BABIP .271 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Brevard County Manatees · 362 PAwOBA .276 → .223 (−53)K% 19.6% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.61% | ÷1.021 | ×1.420 | — | — | 27.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.52% | ÷1.036 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 3.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.04% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.53% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 17.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.001 | ×0.960 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.17% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.964 | ×0.998 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.34% | ÷1.093 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.88% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 104, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .276 → .223; ISO .113 → .090; BABIP .260 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).