Aaron Palensky
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+NYY | 260 | .251/.369/.475 | 10 | 9 | 65 | — | .177/.265/.341 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+2 orgs | 409 | .245/.374/.519 | 22 | 23 | 89 | — | .187/.289/.389 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 209 | .198/.327/.267 | 1 | 13 | 44 | — | .179/.277/.246 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 137 | 111 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 216 | 358 | 378 | 736 | 162 | 310 | 28 | 15 | 337 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 260 | 219 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 79 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 251 | 369 | 475 | 844 | 224 | 346 | 30 | 13 | 375 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 40 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 167 | 375 | 400 | 775 | 233 | 200 | 32 | 20 | 358 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 226 | 180 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 53 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 183 | 335 | 383 | 718 | 200 | 202 | 23 | 14 | 322 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 143 | 125 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 352 | 434 | 744 | 1.178 | 392 | 405 | 24 | 10 | 500 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | -114 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 193 | 157 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 217 | 353 | 293 | 646 | 76 | 277 | 20 | 15 | 303 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 137 | 119 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 193 | 299 | 345 | 644 | 151 | 297 | 33 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 260 | 232 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 102 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 177 | 265 | 341 | 606 | 164 | 266 | 39 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 40 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 121 | 275 | 242 | 517 | 121 | 181 | 40 | 12 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 226 | 189 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 64 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 153 | 276 | 307 | 583 | 153 | 179 | 28 | 10 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 143 | 132 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 258 | 315 | 561 | 875 | 303 | 307 | 31 | 6 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | -114 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 193 | 165 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 47 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 194 | 300 | 267 | 567 | 73 | 247 | 24 | 11 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 137 | 119 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 193 | 299 | 345 | 644 | 151 | 292 | 33 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 137 | 111 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 216 | 358 | 378 | 736 | 162 | 310 | 28 | 15 | 337 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 260 | 232 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 102 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 177 | 265 | 341 | 606 | 164 | 270 | 39 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 260 | 219 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 79 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 251 | 369 | 475 | 844 | 224 | 346 | 30 | 13 | 375 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 409 | 354 | 69 | 16 | 3 | 18 | 35 | 124 | 15 | 23 | 3 | 195 | 295 | 410 | 704 | 215 | 235 | 30 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 409 | 335 | 82 | 20 | 3 | 22 | 54 | 100 | 15 | 23 | 3 | 245 | 374 | 519 | 893 | 275 | 275 | 24 | 13 | 388 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 180 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 56 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 178 | 278 | 244 | 522 | 67 | 248 | 27 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 209 | 172 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 47 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 198 | 327 | 267 | 594 | 70 | 262 | 22 | 14 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 137 | 118 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 195 | 299 | 347 | 647 | 153 | 297 | 33 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 260 | 230 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 102 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 178 | 265 | 343 | 609 | 165 | 266 | 39 | 8 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 409 | 356 | 69 | 16 | 3 | 18 | 35 | 124 | 15 | 23 | 3 | 194 | 295 | 407 | 702 | 213 | 224 | 30 | 9 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 182 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 56 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 176 | 278 | 242 | 520 | 66 | 228 | 27 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 182 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 56 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 176 | 278 | 242 | 520 | 66 | 228 | 27 | 10 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1015 | 885 | 165 | 43 | 7 | 29 | 91 | 327 | 30 | 45 | 13 | 186 | 284 | 349 | 633 | 163 | 254 | 32 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -34 | +4 | +0 | -6 | +22 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 567 | 106 | 28 | 4 | 19 | 58 | 209 | 19 | 29 | 8 | 187 | 284 | 351 | 635 | 164 | 254 | 32 | 9 | 274 | 72 | -22 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AASomerset Patriots · 193 PAwOBA .300 → .252 (−47)K% 20.2% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.21% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.03% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷1.050 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 17.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.63% | ÷0.902 | ×0.860 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.950 | ×0.969 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 80, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .300 → .252; ISO .076 → .069; BABIP .277 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 16 PAwOBA .000 → .000 (0)K% 50.0% → 60.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 60.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .000 → .000; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 226 PAwOBA .321 → .264 (−57)K% 23.5% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.45% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.72% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.02% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 10.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.30% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .321 → .264; ISO .200 → .164; BABIP .202 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 143 PAwOBA .485 → .362 (−123)K% 23.8% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.78% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 18.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.89% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.20% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.19% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 11.28% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .485 → .362; ISO .392 → .314; BABIP .405 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 40 PAwOBA .341 → .271 (−70)K% 32.5% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.50% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 11.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 4.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.029 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 10.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.903 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 8.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 81, 3B 110, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .341 → .271; ISO .233 → .181; BABIP .200 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 260 PAwOBA .365 → .264 (−102)K% 30.4% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.38% | ÷1.015 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.08% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.69% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.71% | ÷1.084 | ×0.870 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 15.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.29% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 7.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.955 | ×0.988 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 6.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 79, 3B 106, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .365 → .264; ISO .224 → .177; BABIP .346 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 137 PAwOBA .329 → .283 (−46)K% 27.7% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.74% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.33% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 10.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.44% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 15.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.96% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 10.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×1.027 | 2.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.08% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .329 → .283; ISO .162 → .151; BABIP .310 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).