Aaron Palensky — OGILVIE

Aaron PalenskyOF Somerset Patriots

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 220 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .303 / .358

PA19

HR0

K%26

BB%9

ISO141

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	137	111	24	8	2	2	21	38	4	0	3	216	358	378	736	162	310	28	15	337	114	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2022	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	219	55	13	3	10	34	79	7	9	3	251	369	475	844	224	346	30	13	375	140	+12	+1	—	—	+6	1.9
2023	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	40	30	5	1	0	2	8	13	2	2	2	167	375	400	775	233	200	32	20	358	128	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	226	180	33	10	1	8	31	53	10	11	1	183	335	383	718	200	202	23	14	322	104	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2023	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	143	125	44	9	2	12	15	34	3	10	0	352	434	744	1.178	392	405	24	10	500	224	+21	+2	—	—	+3	2.7
2024	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	16	15	0	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0							50	0		-114	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.4
2024	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	193	157	34	9	0	1	29	39	4	13	4	217	353	293	646	76	277	20	15	303	91	-2	+1	—	—	+4	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	137	119	23	8	2	2	14	45	4	0	3	193	299	345	644	151	289	33	10	277	74	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2022	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	230	40	10	2	7	23	104	7	9	3	174	269	326	595	152	284	40	9	269	68	-10	+1	—	—	+6	-0.4
2023	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	40	33	4	1	0	1	5	16	2	2	2	121	275	242	517	121	174	40	12	264	65	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	226	189	29	9	1	6	22	64	10	11	1	153	276	307	583	153	177	28	10	263	64	-10	+2	—	—	+5	-0.3
2023	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	143	131	34	6	2	9	9	45	3	10	0	260	322	542	864	282	331	31	6	367	135	+6	+2	—	—	+3	1.1
2024	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	16	15	0	0	0	0	0	10	0	0	0							62	0		-114	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.4
2024	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	193	165	32	9	0	1	21	47	4	13	4	194	300	267	567	73	245	24	11	252	57	-10	+1	—	—	+4	-0.5
2021	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	137	119	23	8	2	2	14	45	4	0	3	193	299	345	644	151	292	33	10	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	—	137	111	24	8	2	2	21	38	4	0	3	216	358	378	736	162	310	28	15	337	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	230	40	10	2	7	23	104	7	9	3	174	269	326	595	152	277	40	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	219	55	13	3	10	34	79	7	9	3	251	369	475	844	224	346	30	13	375	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	409	354	68	16	3	17	35	125	15	23	3	192	292	398	690	206	235	31	9	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	409	335	82	20	3	22	54	100	15	23	3	245	374	519	893	275	275	24	13	388	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	209	180	32	9	0	1	21	56	4	13	4	178	278	244	522	67	248	27	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	209	172	34	9	0	1	29	47	4	13	4	198	327	267	594	70	262	22	14	280	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	137	118	23	8	2	2	14	45	4	0	3	195	299	347	647	153	289	33	10	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	228	40	10	2	7	23	104	7	9	3	175	269	329	598	154	284	40	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	409	356	68	16	3	17	35	125	15	23	3	191	292	396	688	205	231	31	9	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	209	182	32	9	0	1	21	56	4	13	4	176	278	242	520	66	226	27	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	409	356	68	16	3	17	35	125	15	23	3	191	292	396	688	205	231	31	9	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	209	182	32	9	0	1	21	56	4	13	4	176	278	242	520	66	226	27	10	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	NYY	2%	19	17	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	176	263	235	498	59	280	26	11	300	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	33%	276	244	54	11	1	7	25	71	5	7	2	221	307	361	667	139	281	26	9	302	90	-3	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	46%	310	274	61	13	1	8	28	79	5	7	2	223	306	365	671	142	281	25	9	301	90	-4	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	332	293	65	14	1	8	30	85	6	7	2	222	307	358	665	137	280	26	9	300	89	-4	+1	-2	-2	+7	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	33%	92	82	18	4	0	2	8	24	2	2	1	220	304	341	646	122	283	26	9	293	90	-1	+0	-0	-1	+2	0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	46%	143	127	29	6	1	4	13	37	2	3	1	228	310	386	696	157	283	26	9	293	90	-2	+0	-1	-1	+3	0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	179	158	36	7	1	5	16	46	3	4	1	228	311	380	690	152	282	26	9	292	89	-2	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	414	367	83	17	2	11	37	107	7	9	3	226	309	373	682	147	287	26	9	293	81	-5	+1	-2	-2	+9	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	130	27	3	17	58	168	11	14	5	226	309	372	680	146	287	26	9	293	81	-8	+1	-3	-4	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1952	1711	346	82	10	50	178	570	46	67	19	202	295	350	644	147	268	29	9	287	81	-11	+2	-4	-6	+20	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	115	27	3	17	59	190	15	22	6	202	293	349	643	147	267	29	9	287	81	-8	+1	-3	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.6	418	10	10	223	303	364	-3	+0	0.4	0.4
/162	664	17	16	-4.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Palensky (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	219/303/358	139	280	5	6	26%	9%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	43→45	47→45	53→55	49	218/294/356	138	264	15	16	23%	8%	84	+0.2	221/293/346	125	274	14	24	24%	8%	82	-0.0	215/286/326	111	267	12	28	23%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	45→42	49→50	52→55	46	225/296/377	152	281	16	12	25%	8%	90	+0.6	223/302/373	150	297	16	17	29%	8%	92	+0.7	218/314/364	146	281	15	27	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Dylan Moore 2020 · MLB	27	43→48	47→50	50→65	44	217/285/360	143	273	14	20	26%	7%	82	+0.0	221/315/394	173	286	19	30	28%	9%	102	+1.5	207/330/379	172	285	16	41	30%	12%	101	+0.7
✕Jason Repko 2008 · MLB	27	48	48→50	53→55	48	241/312/385	144	287	15	19	21%	8%	98	+1.2	228/293/356	128	291	13	20	25%	6%	84	+0.1	224/289/346	122	285	12	21	25%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Phillip Ervin 2020 · MLB	28	49→51	47→50	51→55	45	242/306/389	147	303	14	17	24%	7%	96	+1.0	210/288/335	125	281	13	15	28%	9%	78	-0.3	158/237/252	95	218	12	21	32%	9%	37	-1.4
✕Mark Mathias 2022 · MLB	27	47→46	45→50	52→50	45	232/289/358	126	289	11	14	23%	6%	82	+0.0	250/329/390	140	343	16	18	29%	10%	105	+1.7	250/337/379	129	345	16	20	29%	10%	104	+0.8
✕Jayson Nix 2010 · MLB	27	45→49	51→55	51→55	48	234/300/397	163	275	19	19	23%	8%	97	+1.1	219/284/377	158	267	19	11	25%	7%	86	+0.3	207/270/357	150	257	17	9	26%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Vinny Capra 2023 · AAA	27	52→48	46→45	50	47	252/314/382	130	315	13	10	24%	8%	97	+1.1	231/297/325	94	292	8	11	22%	8%	78	-0.3	218/286/308	91	279	8	12	24%	7%	68	-0.6
✕Óscar Mercado 2022 · MLB	27	44→52	47→50	55→60	49	219/288/360	141	253	14	20	20%	8%	83	+0.1	221/284/368	147	261	15	23	21%	7%	84	+0.1	214/274/365	151	250	16	28	22%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jordan Czarniecki 2008 · AA	27	50→51	46→50	51→50	48	246/308/379	133	293	12	15	20%	7%	95	+0.9	241/302/366	125	286	11	13	19%	7%	89	+0.5	244/306/368	123	286	9	11	17%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Ryan Rua 2017 · MLB	27	48→54	48→50	51→50	43	239/301/378	138	310	17	11	28%	7%	92	+0.7	216/271/358	142	306	17	12	34%	6%	76	-0.4	196/246/333	137	281	17	12	36%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Alex Call 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	46→50	48→50	48	218/284/345	127	257	14	14	21%	8%	78	-0.3	226/320/367	141	263	15	15	19%	11%	97	+1.1	238/341/359	122	289	11	12	20%	12%	103	+0.8
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	51→52	46→50	51→60	52	249/310/378	129	281	13	21	17%	8%	95	+0.9	255/309/368	113	299	9	14	17%	7%	92	+0.7	255/307/357	102	301	7	12	17%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Matt Long 2014 · AAA	27	47→54	46→50	54→55	46	231/288/368	137	287	13	19	24%	7%	84	+0.2	207/263/314	107	277	9	17	27%	7%	62	-1.4	191/247/285	94	257	8	18	28%	7%	49	-2.0
✕Levi Jordan 2023 · AAA	27	47→55	46→45	48→50	43	236/289/369	133	293	14	10	24%	6%	85	+0.2	232/297/343	111	291	10	15	23%	7%	82	+0.0	225/292/322	98	280	8	18	21%	6%	73	-0.4
●Aaron Altherr 2017 · MLB	26	46→52	46→55	52→50	46	228/297/365	138	288	13	15	25%	8%	88	+0.4	225/304/389	164	294	18	10	28%	9%	96	+1.0	213/296/383	170	278	19	8	29%	9%	89	+0.3
✕Cole Garner 2012 · AAA	27	48→50	48→55	50	39	241/288/393	152	308	15	11	27%	5%	91	+0.6	202/248/322	120	319	13	8	39%	5%	59	-1.6	193/236/309	116	307	14	7	41%	4%	49	-0.9
✕Cole Gillespie 2010 · AAA	26	46→56	46→50	55→50	50	228/305/371	143	290	12	15	25%	9%	92	+0.7	234/306/365	131	295	11	15	23%	8%	91	+0.6	235/308/364	128	292	11	15	22%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Brandon Barnes 2013 · MLB	27	45→53	47→55	50	41	226/275/367	141	295	14	15	28%	6%	80	-0.2	233/280/352	119	316	11	14	28%	5%	78	-0.3	226/275/335	109	307	10	13	29%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Drew Ferguson 2021 · AAA	28	49→50	44→45	54→55	49	234/321/352	118	317	11	21	28%	10%	94	+0.9	214/289/320	106	333	10	21	35%	9%	74	-0.5	152/242/188	36	277	3	35	42%	11%	25	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps