Aaron PalenskyOF
Somerset Patriots
Age 27
R/R
5'10" / 195 lbs
AA
HR +8%BB +8%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.2 · 2026
wRC+†87
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .298 / .360
PA220
HR6
SB6
K%29
BB%9
MLB%2%
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-0.7M | $-7M | -$7M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 137 | 119 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .193 | .299 | .345 | .644 | .151 | .304 | 35 | 10 | .277 | 70 | -5 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 260 | 232 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 102 | 7 | 9 | 3 | .177 | .265 | .341 | .606 | .164 | .270 | 39 | 8 | .266 | 62 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | 3 teams | 409 | 354 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 35 | 128 | 15 | 23 | 3 | .198 | .297 | .421 | .718 | .223 | .241 | 31 | 9 | .305 | 92 | -4 | +3 | +0 | -2 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | 2 teams | 209 | 180 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 59 | 4 | 13 | 4 | .172 | .273 | .233 | .507 | .061 | .246 | 28 | 10 | .233 | 36 | -15 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 220 | 194 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 64 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .216 | .303 | .366 | .669 | .149 | .281 | 29 | 9 | .299 | 87 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB 9% | NYY | 276 | 244 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 79 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .217 | .303 | .369 | .672 | .152 | .282 | 29 | 9 | .300 | 88 | -4 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB 19% | NYY | 310 | 273 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 88 | 6 | 8 | 2 | .216 | .303 | .366 | .669 | .150 | .282 | 28 | 9 | .300 | 88 | -4 | +1 | -1 | -2 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB 29% | NYY | 332 | 293 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 94 | 6 | 8 | 2 | .215 | .301 | .358 | .659 | .143 | .281 | 28 | 9 | .298 | 86 | -5 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB 40% | NYY | 325 | 287 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 93 | 6 | 6 | 1 | .216 | .301 | .362 | .664 | .146 | .280 | 29 | 9 | .295 | 84 | -6 | +1 | -3 | -2 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB 49% | NYY | 311 | 275 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 91 | 5 | 4 | 1 | .211 | .295 | .349 | .645 | .138 | .278 | 29 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -7 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB 57% | NYY | 285 | 253 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 85 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .202 | .286 | .332 | .618 | .130 | .277 | 30 | 9 | .285 | 76 | -8 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB 68% | NYY | 244 | 217 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 75 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .203 | .285 | .336 | .622 | .134 | .275 | 31 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -8 | +0 | -5 | -1 | +7 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3318 | 2921 | 597 | 131 | 15 | 92 | 297 | 1006 | 71 | 89 | 23 | .204 | .293 | .354 | .647 | .150 | .274 | 30 | 9 | .288 | 79 | -80 | +9 | -20 | -20 | +94 | -1.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 572 | 117 | 26 | 3 | 18 | 58 | 197 | 14 | 17 | 5 | .205 | .293 | .355 | .648 | .150 | .274 | 30 | 9 | .288 | 79 | -16 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +18 | -0.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 137 | 111 | 24 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .216 | .358 | .378 | .736 | .162 | .310 | 28 | 15 | .337 | 116 | +2 | -1 | — | — | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 260 | 219 | 55 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 79 | 7 | 9 | 3 | .251 | .369 | .475 | .844 | .224 | .346 | 30 | 13 | .375 | 145 | +13 | +1 | — | — | +7 | 2.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 40 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .167 | .375 | .400 | .775 | .233 | .200 | 32 | 20 | .358 | 132 | +1 | -0 | — | — | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 226 | 180 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 53 | 10 | 11 | 1 | .183 | .335 | .383 | .718 | .200 | .202 | 23 | 14 | .322 | 105 | +1 | +2 | — | — | +6 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 143 | 125 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 10 | 0 | .352 | .434 | .744 | 1.178 | .392 | .405 | 24 | 10 | .500 | 240 | +23 | +2 | — | — | +4 | 2.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 16 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 50 | 0 | .000 | -142 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +0 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 193 | 157 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 | 4 | 13 | 4 | .217 | .353 | .293 | .646 | .076 | .277 | 20 | 15 | .303 | 90 | -2 | +1 | — | — | +5 | 0.4 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Aaron Palensky (OGILVIE) | 27 | — | — | — | — | .212/.298/.360 | .148 | .281 | 6 | 6 | 29% | 9% | 87 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA |
27 | 43→45 | 48→45 | 53→55 | 48 | .221/.296/.363 | .142 | .269 | 16 | 16 | 24% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .221/.293/.348 | .127 | .275 | 14 | 24 | 24% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .214/.285/.324 | .111 | .265 | 13 | 28 | 24% | 8% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Scott Kingery 2021 · MLB |
27 | 46→51 | 48→55 | 51→55 | 42 | .229/.284/.378 | .149 | .296 | 15 | 13 | 28% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .203/.272/.331 | .128 | .300 | 12 | 18 | 34% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .201/.259/.337 | .136 | .285 | 17 | 26 | 34% | 7% | 59 | -0.8 |
|
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB |
27 | 44→43 | 53→50 | 50→55 | 42 | .227/.302/.402 | .174 | .300 | 21 | 13 | 30% | 7% | 98 | +1.6 | .225/.303/.374 | .149 | .296 | 16 | 19 | 28% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .217/.302/.357 | .140 | .282 | 15 | 25 | 27% | 8% | 83 | +0.3 |
|
✕Corey Julks 2023 · AAA |
27 | 43→51 | 53→55 | 52→55 | 41 | .226/.282/.397 | .171 | .285 | 22 | 18 | 29% | 6% | 89 | +0.9 | .232/.293/.373 | .141 | .295 | 16 | 20 | 26% | 7% | 86 | +0.8 | .235/.298/.359 | .123 | .298 | 12 | 21 | 24% | 8% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Alex Castellanos 2014 · MLB |
27 | 42→50 | 51→55 | 53→50 | 39 | .218/.282/.382 | .164 | .290 | 19 | 17 | 31% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .210/.270/.351 | .141 | .299 | 15 | 12 | 33% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .208/.268/.348 | .140 | .303 | 14 | 8 | 34% | 6% | 66 | -0.3 |
|
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA |
27 | 42→43 | 50 | 55 | 44 | .216/.293/.366 | .150 | .294 | 18 | 23 | 32% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .212/.292/.349 | .137 | .297 | 17 | 21 | 32% | 9% | 80 | +0.4 | .195/.282/.319 | .124 | .275 | 16 | 21 | 33% | 9% | 66 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jason Repko 2008 · MLB |
27 | 48 | 48→50 | 53→55 | 47 | .240/.308/.387 | .147 | .288 | 16 | 18 | 22% | 7% | 96 | +1.5 | .229/.295/.358 | .129 | .292 | 13 | 20 | 25% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .225/.290/.351 | .126 | .285 | 13 | 21 | 25% | 6% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Phillip Ervin 2020 · MLB |
28 | 49→52 | 48→50 | 52→55 | 45 | .242/.305/.389 | .147 | .301 | 14 | 18 | 24% | 7% | 95 | +1.4 | .216/.293/.350 | .134 | .284 | 14 | 15 | 27% | 9% | 81 | +0.4 | .163/.242/.272 | .109 | .220 | 15 | 21 | 32% | 9% | 36 | -1.2 |
|
✕Ben Harrison 2009 · AAA |
27 | 46→48 | 50 | 51→50 | 40 | .229/.292/.380 | .151 | .318 | 19 | 12 | 33% | 7% | 88 | +0.9 | .200/.268/.324 | .124 | .314 | 14 | 9 | 38% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .169/.249/.285 | .116 | .263 | 15 | 4 | 39% | 8% | 44 | -0.9 |
|
✕Michael A. Taylor 2018 · MLB |
27 | 47→51 | 51→55 | 54→60 | 41 | .235/.285/.392 | .157 | .319 | 19 | 23 | 32% | 6% | 88 | +0.9 | .227/.282/.382 | .155 | .318 | 16 | 25 | 32% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .236/.294/.379 | .143 | .303 | 19 | 14 | 28% | 7% | 86 | +0.6 |
|
✕Ben Guez 2014 · AAA |
27 | 46→52 | 47→50 | 46→50 | 44 | .229/.300/.370 | .141 | .303 | 14 | 12 | 28% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .208/.282/.362 | .154 | .287 | 18 | 12 | 33% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .191/.268/.351 | .160 | .254 | 20 | 13 | 32% | 7% | 67 | -0.3 |
|
✕Reid Gorecki 2009 · AAA |
28 | 46→51 | 48→50 | 50→55 | 45 | .231/.291/.367 | .136 | .288 | 16 | 20 | 26% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .237/.290/.358 | .121 | .300 | 10 | 19 | 23% | 6% | 80 | +0.4 | .230/.284/.349 | .119 | .293 | 8 | 20 | 23% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 |
|
✕Cole Garner 2012 · AAA |
27 | 47→49 | 49→55 | 49→50 | 39 | .238/.284/.389 | .151 | .301 | 16 | 11 | 26% | 4% | 86 | +0.8 | .205/.250/.327 | .122 | .316 | 13 | 8 | 38% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .196/.239/.323 | .127 | .310 | 16 | 7 | 41% | 4% | 47 | -0.7 |
|
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB |
27 | 36→45 | 49→50 | 52→50 | 48 | .195/.277/.338 | .143 | .247 | 18 | 12 | 29% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .202/.293/.353 | .151 | .264 | 18 | 13 | 29% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .189/.291/.340 | .151 | .244 | 19 | 12 | 30% | 12% | 76 | +0.1 |
|
✕Weston Wilson 2023 · AAA |
28 | 41→43 | 49→55 | 51→55 | 40 | .213/.267/.358 | .145 | .288 | 18 | 17 | 32% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .219/.288/.394 | .175 | .287 | 23 | 23 | 31% | 9% | 91 | +1.1 | .215/.294/.402 | .188 | .269 | 26 | 25 | 30% | 10% | 92 | +0.8 |
|
✕Jayson Nix 2010 · MLB |
27 | 45→49 | 50→55 | 51→55 | 46 | .234/.295/.391 | .158 | .277 | 18 | 19 | 23% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .216/.281/.377 | .161 | .260 | 20 | 11 | 25% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .204/.267/.354 | .151 | .250 | 18 | 9 | 26% | 6% | 66 | -0.3 |
|
✕Narciso Crook 2022 · AAA |
27 | 43 | 49→55 | 50 | 39 | .215/.277/.364 | .150 | .307 | 16 | 12 | 34% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .214/.286/.373 | .159 | .324 | 19 | 15 | 38% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .200/.278/.359 | .159 | .312 | 19 | 17 | 39% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
●Trayce Thompson 2017 · MLB |
26 | 43→47 | 51→65 | 51→50 | 44 | .222/.278/.388 | .166 | .277 | 19 | 13 | 27% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .184/.236/.322 | .138 | .253 | 17 | 9 | 33% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .209/.298/.431 | .221 | .291 | 31 | 7 | 37% | 10% | 102 | +1.1 |
|
✕Niko Goodrum 2019 · MLB |
27 | 46→52 | 49→55 | 50→55 | 42 | .230/.283/.385 | .154 | .301 | 17 | 13 | 29% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .228/.297/.386 | .158 | .312 | 17 | 16 | 30% | 9% | 92 | +1.2 | .234/.334/.361 | .127 | .331 | 13 | 14 | 30% | 13% | 97 | +0.6 |
|
✕Pablo Reyes 2021 · MLB |
27 | 47→52 | 48→50 | 47→55 | 45 | .239/.288/.385 | .146 | .282 | 15 | 13 | 21% | 6% | 87 | +0.8 | .232/.291/.362 | .130 | .272 | 13 | 15 | 19% | 7% | 82 | +0.5 | .244/.311/.364 | .120 | .287 | 14 | 21 | 19% | 8% | 88 | +0.4 |