Aaron Palensky — OGILVIE

Aaron PalenskyOF Somerset Patriots

Age 27 R/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 220 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .302 / .361

PA220

HR6

SB6

K%26

BB%9

ISO144

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	137	119	24	9	2	2	14	47	4	0	3	202	307	361	668	160	314	34	10	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	137	111	24	8	2	2	21	38	4	0	3	216	358	378	736	162	310	28	15	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	229	41	12	2	7	24	103	7	9	3	179	277	341	618	162	286	40	9	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	219	55	13	3	10	34	79	7	9	3	251	369	475	844	224	346	30	13	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	3 teams	—	409	354	69	16	3	18	35	128	15	23	3	195	295	410	704	215	239	31	9	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	3 teams	—	409	335	82	20	3	22	54	100	15	23	3	245	374	519	893	275	275	24	13	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	209	180	31	10	0	1	21	58	4	13	4	172	273	244	518	72	244	28	10	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	2 teams	—	209	172	34	9	0	1	29	47	4	13	4	198	327	267	594	70	262	22	14	280	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	NYY	—	220	194	43	9	1	6	20	58	4	6	2	222	307	371	678	149	280	26	9	301	89	-3	+0	+0	-1	+6	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	NYY	33%	276	244	54	12	1	7	25	72	5	7	2	221	307	365	671	143	281	26	9	302	90	-3	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.3
2027	28	MLB	NYY	33%	92	82	17	4	0	2	8	24	2	2	1	207	293	329	623	122	283	26	9	292	82	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	92	82	17	4	0	2	8	24	2	2	1	207	293	329	623	122	268	26	9	292	82	-2	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	120	28	0	14	57	170	14	14	7	207	294	328	622	121	268	26	9	292	82	-13	+0	-2	-4	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	1511	1320	262	68	9	41	139	466	39	58	17	198	294	357	651	158	269	31	9	287	78	-38	+5	-1	-9	+43	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	113	29	4	18	60	200	17	25	7	199	295	359	654	160	268	31	9	287	78	-16	+2	-0	-4	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	137	111	24	8	2	2	21	38	4	0	3	216	358	378	736	162	310	28	15	337	116	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2022	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	260	219	55	13	3	10	34	79	7	9	3	251	369	475	844	224	346	30	13	375	145	+13	+1	—	—	+7	2.2
2023	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	40	30	5	1	0	2	8	13	2	2	2	167	375	400	775	233	200	32	20	358	132	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	226	180	33	10	1	8	31	53	10	11	1	183	335	383	718	200	202	23	14	322	105	+1	+2	—	—	+6	1.0
2023	24	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	143	125	44	9	2	12	15	34	3	10	0	352	434	744	1.178	392	405	24	10	500	240	+23	+2	—	—	+4	2.9
2024	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	16	15	0	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0							50	0		-142	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.4
2024	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	193	157	34	9	0	1	29	39	4	13	4	217	353	293	646	76	277	20	15	303	90	-2	+1	—	—	+5	0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Palensky (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	218/302/361	143	280	6	6	26%	9%	89	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	42→45	48→45	53→55	48	215/291/358	143	260	16	16	24%	8%	82	+0.5	217/288/337	120	273	13	24	24%	8%	76	+0.0	211/282/316	105	266	12	28	24%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	44→42	51→50	51→55	46	225/296/386	161	279	18	12	26%	8%	91	+1.1	222/301/376	154	297	17	17	30%	7%	92	+1.2	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
●Alex Call 2022 · AAA	27	43→49	48→50	48→50	48	222/287/364	142	260	17	14	22%	8%	82	+0.5	229/323/378	149	265	16	15	19%	11%	101	+1.8	221/327/368	147	257	16	17	20%	12%	99	+1.3
✕Scott Kingery 2021 · MLB	27	45→51	50→55	51→55	43	229/285/393	164	294	17	13	28%	7%	89	+0.9	197/266/322	125	295	12	18	35%	8%	62	-0.9	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Phillip Ervin 2019 · MLB	27	46→50	47→50	54→55	46	227/294/362	135	282	14	23	24%	7%	84	+0.6	225/296/365	140	291	14	15	26%	8%	85	+0.7	214/283/361	147	278	16	16	28%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Jason Repko 2008 · MLB	27	48	48→50	53→55	48	241/312/385	144	287	15	19	22%	8%	98	+1.6	228/293/358	130	290	13	20	25%	6%	82	+0.5	225/290/351	126	285	13	21	25%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Pablo Reyes 2021 · MLB	27	48→53	49→50	47→55	46	240/292/394	154	282	16	12	21%	6%	91	+1.1	234/295/367	133	274	14	15	19%	7%	85	+0.7	243/317/375	132	288	13	24	19%	9%	93	+0.8
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→42	49→50	52→50	48	196/278/340	144	250	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	207/297/365	158	271	19	13	29%	11%	87	+0.8	195/295/355	161	251	20	12	30%	12%	82	+0.4
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2011 · MLB	27	44→48	49→55	52→50	40	228/274/377	150	282	18	14	26%	5%	79	+0.3	241/293/405	164	288	19	10	23%	6%	95	+1.4	238/296/408	169	280	20	7	22%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Ben Guez 2014 · AAA	27	45→52	49→55	46→50	44	225/297/378	153	298	17	12	29%	7%	90	+1.0	209/281/373	164	286	20	13	33%	7%	82	+0.5	193/269/365	172	251	23	13	32%	6%	71	-0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2023 · AAA	27	46→48	45→50	54→55	49	228/299/352	124	289	12	20	25%	9%	83	+0.6	228/305/365	137	299	15	23	27%	10%	89	+1.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Clint Frazier 2022 · MLB	27	44→45	51→55	48→50	53	223/318/386	163	288	18	7	28%	11%	101	+1.8	199/286/319	120	299	12	11	35%	9%	70	-0.3	180/265/284	104	278	11	12	36%	9%	50	-1.0
✕Mark Mathias 2022 · MLB	27	48→47	46→50	52→50	43	236/287/370	134	291	13	14	23%	6%	82	+0.5	254/332/399	145	343	17	18	28%	9%	109	+2.4	258/344/393	135	350	16	20	28%	10%	111	+1.3
✕Jordan Czarniecki 2008 · AA	27	50→51	47→50	51→50	48	246/308/387	141	295	14	15	21%	7%	96	+1.5	241/302/371	130	287	12	13	20%	7%	89	+1.0	244/306/372	128	287	11	11	18%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Chip Ambres 2007 · MLB	27	44→49	45→50	48→50	49	217/286/342	125	267	12	15	23%	8%	76	+0.0	218/287/363	145	270	17	9	25%	8%	81	+0.4	214/283/358	144	260	17	6	24%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Jayson Nix 2010 · MLB	27	45→49	51→55	51→55	47	234/299/396	163	275	19	19	23%	8%	95	+1.4	217/282/373	156	265	19	11	25%	7%	82	+0.5	205/268/351	146	255	17	9	26%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Reid Gorecki 2009 · AAA	28	48→51	47→50	50→55	46	240/299/371	132	298	16	21	25%	7%	89	+0.9	234/288/353	119	298	10	19	24%	6%	79	+0.3	228/282/345	117	291	8	20	23%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jonathan Davis 2019 · MLB	27	47→52	43→45	54→55	46	228/302/343	115	291	10	20	24%	8%	82	+0.5	216/304/336	120	286	11	19	27%	8%	82	+0.5	224/306/341	117	313	11	22	29%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Alex Castellanos 2013 · MLB	26	45→49	51→55	52→50	41	229/293/398	169	302	18	15	30%	6%	93	+1.3	203/267/344	141	286	16	15	33%	6%	69	-0.4	198/258/327	129	294	12	8	35%	6%	57	-0.6