Kevin Smith — OGILVIE

Kevin Smith3B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%4

BABIP260

ISO154

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT20

Whiff%

1215.3%

xAVG

100.181

POWER52

Barrel%

518.4

Avg EV

2987.5

EYE32

Chase%

1041.4%

SPEED53

Sprint

4627.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	262	71	25	1	8	16	70	1	9	0	271	315	466	781	195	337	25	6	338	115	+5	+2	—	—	+6	1.3
2018	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	371	340	93	8	2	18	23	88	7	17	5	274	332	468	800	194	319	24	6	353	125	+11	+1	—	—	+8	2.1
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	204	183	65	23	4	7	17	33	1	12	1	355	413	639	1.052	284	397	16	8	447	189	+22	+2	—	—	+4	2.9
2019	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	468	430	90	22	2	19	29	151	4	11	6	209	266	402	668	193	269	32	6	292	84	-9	-0	—	—	+10	0.1
2019	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	67	63	6	2	1	0	3	38	1	1	0	95	149	159	308	63	240	57	4	145	-16	-9	+0	—	—	+1	-0.8
2021	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	36	32	3	0	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	94	194	188	382	94	100	31	8	187	12	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.1
2021	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	410	355	101	27	4	21	46	97	4	18	3	285	373	561	933	276	333	24	11	401	157	+28	+2	—	—	+9	4.0
2022	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	151	139	25	9	1	2	7	42	0	4	0	180	219	302	521	122	237	28	5	225	38	-11	+1	+3	+2	+3	-0.2
2022	26	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	370	332	89	16	2	13	29	112	4	6	1	268	334	446	780	178	360	30	8	342	117	+8	+1	—	—	+8	1.7
2023	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	146	135	25	4	0	5	5	51	1	1	0	185	220	326	546	141	253	35	3	235	45	-10	+0	-0	+4	+3	-0.3
2023	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	183	170	55	8	0	16	13	49	0	9	2	324	372	653	1.025	329	371	27	7	441	185	+18	+1	—	—	+4	2.4
2024	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	238	58	14	0	3	17	88	3	12	2	244	302	340	643	97	359	33	6	286	79	-6	+2	—	—	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	333	306	53	13	1	8	15	104	2	5	0	173	217	301	517	127	230	31	5	225	38	-24	+1	+3	+7	+7	-0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	268	50	16	1	6	10	99	1	9	0	187	219	321	540	134	253	35	4	226	39	-21	+2	—	—	+6	-1.3
2018	22	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	371	348	71	7	1	12	15	128	7	17	5	204	251	333	585	129	278	35	4	257	60	-18	+1	—	—	+8	-0.8
2018	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	204	189	51	17	3	5	11	45	1	12	1	270	313	471	784	201	324	22	5	342	118	+4	+2	—	—	+4	1.1
2019	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	468	438	72	16	2	16	21	183	4	11	6	164	210	320	529	155	226	39	4	228	40	-33	-0	—	—	+10	-2.4
2021	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	36	32	3	0	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	94	194	188	382	94	100	31	8	184	11	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	410	371	81	23	3	13	30	121	4	18	3	218	284	402	686	183	276	30	7	297	87	-6	+2	—	—	+9	0.5
2022	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	151	139	25	9	1	2	7	42	0	4	0	180	219	302	521	122	237	28	5	227	40	-11	+1	+3	+2	+3	-0.2
2022	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	370	341	67	10	2	9	20	143	4	6	1	196	249	317	566	120	292	39	5	247	53	-21	+1	—	—	+8	-1.2
2023	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	146	135	25	4	0	5	5	51	1	1	0	185	220	326	546	141	253	35	3	240	49	-9	+0	-0	+4	+3	-0.3
2023	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	183	174	43	5	0	12	9	62	0	9	2	247	284	483	767	236	310	34	5	320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2024	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	243	47	10	0	2	12	107	3	12	2	193	240	259	500	66	307	41	5	222	36	-20	+2	—	—	+6	-1.3
2017	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	268	50	16	1	6	10	99	1	9	0	187	219	321	540	134	265	35	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	262	71	25	1	8	16	70	1	9	0	271	315	466	781	195	337	25	6	338	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	575	537	122	24	4	17	26	173	8	29	6	227	273	382	655	155	299	30	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	575	523	158	31	6	25	40	121	8	29	6	302	361	528	888	226	349	21	7	386	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	535	501	82	18	2	18	24	209	5	12	6	164	209	315	525	152	230	39	4	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	535	493	96	24	3	19	32	189	5	12	6	195	251	371	622	176	266	35	6	274	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	446	403	84	23	3	14	33	132	5	18	3	208	277	385	661	176	269	30	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	446	387	104	27	4	22	49	108	5	18	3	269	358	530	888	261	315	24	11	383	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	521	480	93	20	3	11	27	185	4	10	1	194	243	317	559	123	283	36	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	521	471	114	25	3	15	36	154	4	10	1	242	301	403	705	161	321	30	7	308	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	309	68	9	0	17	14	113	1	10	2	220	256	414	670	194	285	34	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	329	305	80	12	0	21	18	100	1	10	2	262	306	508	814	246	321	30	5	349	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	243	47	10	0	2	12	107	3	12	2	193	240	259	500	66	321	41	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	238	58	14	0	3	17	88	3	12	2	244	302	340	643	97	359	33	6	286	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	270	50	16	1	6	10	99	1	9	0	185	219	319	537	133	253	35	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	575	536	122	24	4	17	26	173	8	29	6	228	273	382	656	155	294	30	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	535	501	82	18	2	18	24	209	5	12	6	164	209	315	525	152	226	39	4	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	446	405	84	23	3	14	33	132	5	18	3	207	277	383	659	175	262	30	7	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	521	485	93	20	3	11	27	185	4	10	1	192	243	313	556	122	276	36	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	311	68	9	0	17	14	113	1	10	2	219	256	412	668	193	285	34	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	247	47	10	0	2	12	107	3	12	2	190	240	255	495	65	307	41	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	311	68	9	0	17	14	113	1	10	2	219	256	412	668	193	285	34	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	247	47	10	0	2	12	107	3	12	2	190	240	255	495	65	307	41	5	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	30	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	27	26	5	1	0	1	1	8	0	1	0	192	222	346	568	154	258	30	4	253	58	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.5
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						260	33	0	251	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYY	27%	299	278	54	10	1	8	16	95	3	8	2	194	246	324	570	129	255	32	5	249	55	-16	+1	-2	+1	+6	-1.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYY	27%	82	77	15	3	0	2	4	26	1	2	1	195	244	312	556	117	257	32	5	247	55	-4	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	415	383	68	16	1	10	19	130	3	7	1	178	222	303	525	125	237	31	5	229	59	-29	+1	+2	+7	+9	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	107	25	2	16	30	204	5	11	2	178	224	307	531	128	238	31	5	229	59	-45	+2	+3	+11	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3279	3045	605	131	14	94	163	1121	30	109	22	199	246	344	590	145	275	34	5	256	59	-42	+2	+1	+8	+14	-1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	121	26	3	19	32	222	6	22	4	200	248	348	595	147	277	34	5	256	59	-41	+2	+1	+8	+14	-1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jeff Mathislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 3,003 PA	4.5	3,003	53	12	194	253	300	+54	+136	11.2	10.8
/162	664	12	3	+11.9	+30.1	2.5	pk7: 10
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.6	410	10	8	182	220	310	+2	+2	-1.1	-1.0
/162	664	16	13	+3.3	+3.8	-1.8	pk7: -1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Smith (OGILVIE)	30	20	52	53	32	193/243/320	127	258	9	9	31%	5%	58	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	42→45	54→50	42	185/250/290	106	250	10	13	30%	7%	53	-2.1	190/262/302	112	274	11	13	33%	7%	61	-1.5	142/221/231	89	212	10	16	36%	6%	28	-1.5
✕Deven Marrero 2021 · MLB	30	39→48	45	53→50	41	201/255/317	116	274	13	12	31%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/319	109	294	12	10	31%	8%	68	-1.0	194/260/282	88	272	11	8	31%	8%	51	-0.7
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→36	49→50	51→50	37	207/247/351	144	269	17	13	30%	4%	65	-1.2	231/288/355	124	292	12	10	24%	6%	82	-0.0	243/308/345	102	303	9	6	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Dusty Coleman 2018 · MLB	31	38→43	48→50	52→50	35	194/247/337	143	296	15	14	39%	6%	63	-1.4	175/229/305	130	342	15	12	50%	6%	49	-2.4	115/168/220	105	256	13	11	58%	5%	4	-3.1
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→43	48→50	50	38	210/254/349	140	285	16	11	32%	6%	68	-1.0	203/254/320	117	291	13	11	33%	6%	61	-1.5	191/243/296	105	275	11	8	34%	5%	49	-1.5
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2023 · AAA	28	40→42	48→50	54→55	36	210/247/357	147	281	16	16	31%	4%	67	-1.1	212/259/341	129	290	14	21	31%	5%	68	-1.0	196/246/312	117	265	13	29	30%	5%	53	-1.4
✕Eli Whiteside 2010 · MLB	30	41	45→50	46→40	38	210/250/331	121	270	13	5	27%	4%	62	-1.4	213/269/337	124	275	12	6	26%	6%	70	-0.8	198/259/304	106	255	9	3	25%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Jeremy Owens 2007 · AA	30	42→39	45	55	35	206/252/327	121	311	13	20	37%	5%	61	-1.5	207/243/318	111	327	11	18	38%	4%	56	-1.9	215/243/320	105	355	8	21	40%	4%	53	-1.3
✕Taylor Snyder 2023 · AAA	28	35→34	52→50	52→50	34	191/237/352	161	283	21	11	40%	6%	63	-1.4	188/253/306	118	299	13	15	39%	8%	58	-1.7	142/223/229	87	220	11	21	38%	9%	28	-1.8
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	37→47	48→50	52→50	42	197/253/337	140	262	16	10	31%	7%	65	-1.2	204/263/315	111	281	10	9	29%	7%	63	-1.4	194/252/287	94	273	6	7	30%	6%	50	-0.9
✕Jack López 2023 · MLB	30	38→46	40→45	54→55	33	187/229/281	94	289	8	19	37%	4%	42	-2.9	208/251/323	115	302	12	15	34%	5%	60	-1.6	207/250/316	109	295	12	15	33%	4%	56	-1.4
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	39	48→45	50→45	39	204/250/344	140	257	16	10	28%	5%	65	-1.2	208/252/338	130	266	16	6	28%	4%	65	-1.2	189/227/304	115	235	17	0	28%	3%	44	-0.8
✕Austin Hedges 2023 · MLB	30	33→40	46→60	48→45	45	180/244/293	113	213	16	5	25%	7%	52	-2.2	182/245/274	92	230	11	6	25%	7%	48	-2.5	190/263/292	101	234	13	4	24%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→40	46→50	46→50	41	187/263/312	125	288	14	5	38%	8%	63	-1.3	198/267/312	114	334	13	10	41%	8%	64	-1.3	168/238/260	91	301	11	12	45%	8%	39	-1.6
✕Jim Haley 2023 · AAA	28	36→44	48→50	55	35	191/246/331	140	277	17	19	37%	5%	61	-1.5	208/264/326	118	286	12	21	30%	6%	66	-1.1	205/262/312	107	278	10	24	29%	5%	59	-1.1
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	38	44→45	47→50	42	193/261/309	116	251	13	9	28%	6%	61	-1.5	213/285/338	125	283	14	11	28%	7%	78	-0.3	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Jeff Mathis 2013 · MLB	30	39→46	46→50	45	39	202/243/331	129	258	14	5	28%	5%	59	-1.6	205/265/325	120	279	12	4	29%	7%	66	-1.1	210/260/314	105	285	8	1	28%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Tony Thomas 2015 · AAA	29	40→46	45→50	56→55	36	201/246/330	129	284	11	14	33%	5%	59	-1.6	213/256/339	126	315	11	11	34%	5%	65	-1.2	208/247/334	127	312	10	7	35%	4%	58	-1.0
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→35	48→55	53→50	40	225/270/371	147	295	15	14	29%	6%	78	-0.3	205/242/351	146	290	17	8	35%	4%	63	-1.3	178/208/309	131	254	16	7	37%	3%	39	-1.7
✕Dane Sardinha 2009 · MLB	30	34→32	41→40	49→30	37	178/218/271	93	240	10	4	30%	4%	36	-3.4	179/229/278	99	254	10	4	33%	5%	42	-2.9	153/213/233	79	221	9	0	34%	6%	23	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps