Kevin Smith — OGILVIE

Kevin SmithSS Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 314 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .244 / .322

PA314

HR9

SB9

K%32

BB%5

ISO128

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT20

Whiff%

1215.3%

xwOBA

100.238

POWER52

Barrel%

518.4

Avg EV

2987.5

EYE32

Chase%

1041.4%

SPEED53

Sprint

4627.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	268	50	16	1	6	10	99	1	9	0	187	219	321	540	134	265	35	4	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	262	71	25	1	8	16	70	1	9	0	271	315	466	781	195	337	25	6	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	575	537	119	24	4	16	26	176	8	29	6	222	268	371	639	149	295	31	5	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	575	523	158	31	6	25	40	121	8	29	6	302	361	528	888	226	349	21	7	386	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	535	500	85	17	2	25	25	220	5	12	6	170	217	362	579	192	232	41	5	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	535	493	96	24	3	19	32	189	5	12	6	195	251	371	622	176	266	35	6	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	446	403	82	23	3	16	33	136	5	18	3	203	272	395	667	191	260	30	7	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	446	387	104	27	4	22	49	108	5	18	3	269	358	530	888	261	315	24	11	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	521	480	92	19	3	10	27	184	4	10	1	192	241	306	547	115	281	35	5	238	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	521	471	114	25	3	15	36	154	4	10	1	242	301	403	705	161	321	30	7	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	329	310	69	9	0	17	13	112	1	10	2	223	256	416	672	194	287	34	4	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	329	305	80	12	0	21	18	100	1	10	2	262	306	508	814	246	321	30	5	349	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	244	47	9	0	2	11	108	3	12	2	193	236	254	491	61	321	41	4	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	238	58	14	0	3	17	88	3	12	2	244	302	340	643	97	359	33	6	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	NYY	—	314	292	58	10	1	9	16	99	3	9	2	199	248	332	580	134	261	32	5	254	53	-17	+1	+1	+1	+9	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	NYY	27%	299	279	54	9	1	8	15	96	3	8	2	194	242	319	561	125	259	32	5	251	50	-17	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.9
2027	31	MLB	NYY	27%	82	77	15	3	0	2	4	26	1	2	1	195	244	312	556	117	260	32	5	247	47	-5	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	415	383	68	16	1	10	19	130	3	7	1	178	222	303	525	125	237	31	5	229	34	-31	+1	+2	+7	+12	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	107	25	2	16	30	204	5	11	2	178	224	307	531	128	238	31	5	229	34	-49	+1	+3	+11	+18	-1.4
Career	—			—	3566	3313	656	136	15	109	176	1230	33	117	24	198	246	347	592	149	273	34	5	256	54	-185	+14	+2	+15	+101	-5.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	604	120	25	3	20	32	224	6	21	4	199	246	349	595	151	274	34	5	256	54	-34	+3	+0	+3	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	283	262	71	25	1	8	16	70	1	9	0	271	315	466	781	195	337	25	6	338	117	+5	+2	—	—	+8	1.6
2018	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	371	340	93	8	2	18	23	88	7	17	5	274	332	468	800	194	319	24	6	353	128	+12	+1	—	—	+11	2.4
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	204	183	65	23	4	7	17	33	1	12	1	355	413	639	1.052	284	397	16	8	447	200	+23	+2	—	—	+6	3.2
2019	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	468	430	90	22	2	19	29	151	4	11	6	209	266	402	668	193	269	32	6	292	82	-10	-0	—	—	+13	0.3
2019	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	67	63	6	2	1	0	3	38	1	1	0	95	149	159	308	63	240	57	4	145	-31	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2021	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	36	32	3	0	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	94	194	188	382	94	100	31	8	187	1	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.1
2021	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	410	355	101	27	4	21	46	97	4	18	3	285	373	561	933	276	333	24	11	401	165	+30	+2	—	—	+12	4.5
2022	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	151	139	25	9	1	2	7	42	0	4	0	180	219	302	521	122	237	28	5	225	30	-12	+1	+3	+2	+4	-0.2
2022	26	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	370	332	89	16	2	13	29	112	4	6	1	268	334	446	780	178	360	30	8	342	120	+8	+1	—	—	+10	2.0
2023	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	146	135	25	4	0	5	5	51	1	1	0	185	220	326	546	141	253	35	3	235	38	-10	+0	-0	+4	+4	-0.3
2023	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	183	170	55	8	0	16	13	49	0	9	2	324	372	653	1.025	329	371	27	7	441	196	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.6
2024	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	264	238	58	14	0	3	17	88	3	12	2	244	302	340	643	97	359	33	6	286	77	-7	+2	—	—	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	333	306	53	13	1	8	15	104	2	5	0	173	217	301	517	127	230	31	5	225	30	-26	+1	+3	+7	+9	-0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	410	10	8	183	220	311	+2	+2	-1.1	-1.0
	/162	664	16	13	183	220	311	+3.3	+3.8	-1.8	pk7: -1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Smith (OGILVIE)	30	20	52	53	32	195/244/322	127	261	9	9	32%	5%	53	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	38→37	50	51→50	36	205/243/354	149	265	18	13	31%	4%	60	-1.0	223/281/343	120	285	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	228/298/319	92	290	8	6	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Dusty Coleman 2018 · MLB	31	38→42	48→50	51→50	35	194/248/337	142	295	15	14	38%	6%	58	-1.2	170/225/296	126	336	14	12	51%	6%	38	-2.6	106/161/203	97	243	12	11	59%	5%	-16	-3.5
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	43→45	54→50	41	184/246/294	109	250	11	13	30%	6%	46	-2.0	193/261/313	120	273	13	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	153/230/258	105	221	12	16	35%	6%	28	-1.2
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2023 · AAA	28	40	49→50	54→55	35	209/246/360	152	286	16	16	33%	4%	63	-0.9	209/256/338	129	289	13	21	31%	5%	61	-1.0	192/242/305	113	262	12	29	31%	5%	43	-1.5
✕Deven Marrero 2021 · MLB	30	39→48	44→45	53→50	39	199/249/310	111	279	12	12	32%	6%	50	-1.7	215/274/333	118	302	14	10	32%	7%	68	-0.5	204/269/307	103	286	13	8	32%	8%	55	-0.4
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	38	48→45	50→45	38	200/242/340	140	254	16	10	29%	4%	56	-1.3	209/250/351	142	266	18	6	29%	4%	63	-0.9	191/229/327	136	233	21	0	29%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Jeremy Owens 2007 · AA	30	41→37	47→45	54→55	34	204/251/332	128	317	15	20	39%	5%	58	-1.2	209/245/327	118	331	12	18	39%	4%	53	-1.5	217/246/330	113	357	9	21	40%	4%	50	-1.0
✕Jack López 2023 · MLB	30	38→46	41→45	54→55	32	188/229/286	98	288	8	19	37%	4%	36	-2.7	205/248/324	119	296	13	15	34%	5%	54	-1.4	203/247/314	111	289	12	15	33%	4%	48	-1.3
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	50	52→50	41	196/252/349	153	257	19	10	32%	7%	63	-0.8	201/258/315	114	276	11	9	30%	7%	56	-1.3	190/247/283	93	269	7	7	30%	6%	41	-0.9
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→44	50→55	50	38	212/255/362	151	286	19	11	33%	6%	68	-0.5	206/255/336	130	295	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.0	194/246/316	121	279	14	8	35%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Taylor Snyder 2023 · AAA	28	33→31	54→50	52→50	34	188/234/358	170	279	23	11	41%	6%	58	-1.2	181/245/301	120	305	14	15	42%	7%	48	-1.9	126/209/215	89	212	11	21	44%	9%	9	-2.1
✕Tony Thomas 2015 · AAA	29	40→46	46→50	56→55	35	203/245/338	135	293	12	14	35%	5%	56	-1.3	213/255/343	130	326	12	11	36%	5%	62	-0.9	207/246/338	132	324	10	7	38%	4%	53	-0.9
✕Taylor Featherston 2019 · MLB	29	37→45	45→55	54→50	37	189/247/308	120	279	13	12	36%	6%	50	-1.7	183/237/315	132	337	16	9	48%	5%	49	-1.8	148/201/281	132	295	18	5	54%	4%	21	-2.8
✕Jim Haley 2023 · AAA	28	35→44	50	55	34	191/244/342	151	278	19	19	38%	5%	58	-1.2	209/264/336	127	285	14	21	31%	5%	64	-0.8	207/263/321	115	277	12	24	29%	5%	57	-0.8
✕Dane Sardinha 2009 · MLB	30	34→32	43→45	49→30	36	181/220/282	101	241	11	4	30%	4%	30	-3.1	182/230/289	107	254	12	4	32%	5%	38	-2.6	157/216/246	89	222	10	0	33%	6%	17	-1.3
✕Jason Smith 2006 · MLB	29	41→35	47→55	51→50	38	212/247/355	143	270	14	14	27%	4%	62	-0.9	219/260/375	156	300	18	9	32%	5%	72	-0.2	208/246/368	159	291	19	5	35%	4%	62	-0.5
✕Kevin Richardson 2011 · AAA	30	36	49→50	49→40	30	189/232/332	143	302	18	5	43%	4%	50	-1.7	216/266/352	136	340	16	6	39%	5%	69	-0.4	212/270/338	125	340	14	0	39%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	179/241/285	105	253	11	13	33%	7%	42	-2.3	189/249/278	89	270	8	15	31%	7%	43	-2.2	160/223/224	65	230	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0
✕Mark Contreras 2023 · MLB	28	37	51→50	55	36	198/257/358	160	281	20	20	36%	6%	69	-0.4	204/266/321	117	295	13	26	33%	6%	62	-0.9	196/263/289	93	286	10	32	33%	7%	48	-1.2