Kevin Smith — OGILVIE

Kevin SmithSS Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR +8%BB +8% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .228 / .303

PA314

HR9

SB9

K%36

BB%5

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

52→52

SPD

53→53

EYE

37↘32

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.9peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-4M		$-4M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	283	268	50	16	1	6	10	99	1	9	0	.187	.219	.321	.540	.134	.265	35	4	.226	31	-22	+2	+0	+1	+8	-1.1
2018	22	A+	2 teams	575	537	122	24	4	17	26	170	8	29	6	.227	.273	.382	.655	.155	.297	30	5	.287	78	-14	+3	+0	+2	+16	0.7
2019	23	AA	2 teams	535	501	83	17	2	20	24	219	5	12	6	.166	.211	.327	.539	.162	.237	41	4	.234	37	-38	+0	+0	+2	+15	-2.1
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	446	403	86	23	3	17	33	132	5	18	3	.213	.281	.412	.693	.199	.268	30	7	.298	86	-7	+2	+0	+2	+13	1.0
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	521	480	92	19	3	11	27	185	4	10	1	.192	.241	.312	.553	.121	.279	36	5	.240	42	-34	+2	+3	+2	+15	-1.3
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	329	309	69	9	0	17	14	113	1	10	2	.223	.259	.417	.677	.194	.291	34	4	.282	74	-10	+1	-0	+4	+9	0.4
2024	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	264	243	47	10	0	2	12	106	3	12	2	.193	.240	.259	.500	.066	.319	40	5	.225	30	-21	+2	+0	+1	+7	-1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	NYY	314	293	54	9	1	9	16	112	2	9	2	.184	.232	.314	.546	.130	.254	36	5	.240	42	-21	+1	+1	+1	+9	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	NYY	299	280	49	8	0	8	15	108	2	7	2	.175	.222	.289	.512	.114	.252	36	5	.236	39	-21	+1	-2	+1	+8	-1.3
2028	32	MLB 33%	NYY	280	262	45	8	0	7	14	103	2	6	1	.172	.219	.282	.502	.111	.250	37	5	.231	35	-21	+1	-3	+1	+8	-1.4
2029	33	MLB 43%	NYY	250	233	40	7	0	6	13	93	2	4	1	.172	.222	.279	.501	.107	.248	37	5	.225	31	-20	+0	-3	+1	+7	-1.5
2030	34	MLB 52%	NYY	208	195	32	5	0	5	10	80	1	3	0	.164	.209	.267	.475	.103	.246	38	5	.219	26	-17	+1	-4	+1	+6	-1.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4304	4004	769	155	14	125	214	1520	36	129	26	.192	.240	.331	.571	.139	.269	35	5	.250	50	-245	+15	-8	+18	+122	-10.0
/ 162G	—			650	605	116	23	2	19	32	230	5	19	4	.192	.238	.331	.569	.139	.269	35	5	.250	50	-37	+2	-1	+3	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	283	262	71	25	1	8	16	70	1	9	0	.271	.315	.466	.781	.195	.337	25	6	.338	117	+5	+2	—	—	+8	1.6
2018	22	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	371	340	93	8	2	18	23	88	7	17	5	.274	.332	.468	.800	.194	.319	24	6	.353	128	+12	+1	—	—	+11	2.4
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	204	183	65	23	4	7	17	33	1	12	1	.355	.413	.639	1.052	.284	.397	16	8	.447	200	+23	+2	—	—	+6	3.2
2019	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	468	430	90	22	2	19	29	151	4	11	6	.209	.266	.402	.668	.193	.269	32	6	.292	82	-10	-0	—	—	+13	0.3
2019	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	67	63	6	2	1	0	3	38	1	1	0	.095	.149	.159	.308	.063	.240	57	4	.145	-31	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2021	25	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	36	32	3	0	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	.094	.194	.188	.382	.094	.100	31	8	.187	1	-4	+0	+0	+2	+1	-0.1
2021	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	410	355	101	27	4	21	46	97	4	18	3	.285	.373	.561	.933	.276	.333	24	11	.401	165	+30	+2	—	—	+12	4.5
2022	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	151	139	25	9	1	2	7	42	0	4	0	.180	.219	.302	.521	.122	.237	28	5	.225	30	-12	+1	+3	+2	+4	-0.2
2022	26	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	370	332	89	16	2	13	29	112	4	6	1	.268	.334	.446	.780	.178	.360	30	8	.342	120	+8	+1	—	—	+10	2.0
2023	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	146	135	25	4	0	5	5	51	1	1	0	.185	.220	.326	.546	.141	.253	35	3	.235	38	-10	+0	-0	+4	+4	-0.3
2023	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	183	170	55	8	0	16	13	49	0	9	2	.324	.372	.653	1.025	.329	.371	27	7	.441	196	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.6
2024	28	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	264	238	58	14	0	3	17	88	3	12	2	.244	.302	.340	.643	.097	.359	33	6	.286	77	-7	+2	—	—	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			333	306	53	13	1	8	15	104	2	5	0	.173	.217	.301	.517	.127	.230	31	5	.225	30	-26	+1	+3	+7	+9	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Smith (OGILVIE)	30	20	52	53	32	.180/.228/.303	.124	.254	9	9	36%	5%	42	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dane Sardinha 2009 · MLB	30	34→32	42→45	49→30	36	.180/.219/.277	.098	.240	11	4	30%	4%	30	-3.1	.181/.228/.286	.105	.253	12	4	32%	5%	36	-2.7	.155/.214/.240	.085	.222	10	0	34%	6%	15	-1.4
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	38	49→45	51→45	37	.204/.247/.347	.143	.259	17	10	29%	4%	60	-1.0	.210/.251/.350	.140	.267	18	6	28%	4%	63	-0.9	.193/.231/.325	.132	.237	20	0	28%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Joe Hudson 2022 · MLB	31	36	44→45	47→40	39	.188/.240/.299	.111	.269	13	5	35%	6%	44	-2.1	.203/.283/.350	.147	.288	19	8	34%	9%	77	+0.1	.183/.287/.336	.152	.261	22	8	36%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	37→47	43→45	55→50	41	.189/.250/.298	.109	.260	11	14	31%	6%	49	-1.8	.188/.258/.305	.117	.268	13	13	33%	7%	55	-1.4	.146/.225/.246	.100	.213	12	16	36%	6%	24	-1.3
✕Jack López 2023 · MLB	30	38→44	41→45	54→55	33	.191/.233/.290	.099	.290	9	19	36%	4%	39	-2.5	.207/.250/.324	.117	.300	12	16	34%	5%	55	-1.4	.207/.250/.317	.110	.296	12	15	33%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Eddy Rodriguez 2016 · AAA	30	35→30	42→50	45→30	31	.181/.214/.278	.097	.268	10	4	36%	3%	27	-3.3	.176/.214/.269	.093	.320	10	5	46%	4%	25	-3.5	.144/.181/.222	.078	.291	10	1	52%	4%	-4	-2.0
✕Kevin Cash 2008 · MLB	30	36	45→40	43→30	40	.187/.252/.308	.120	.258	14	4	32%	7%	53	-1.5	.201/.270/.307	.106	.280	11	4	30%	8%	59	-1.1	.194/.267/.274	.080	.265	9	0	29%	9%	45	-0.5
✕Dusty Coleman 2018 · MLB	31	39→43	47→50	51→50	35	.198/.251/.338	.139	.298	15	14	38%	5%	59	-1.1	.171/.223/.301	.130	.330	15	12	50%	5%	39	-2.5	.114/.167/.218	.104	.254	13	11	58%	5%	-9	-3.2
✕Jeremy Owens 2007 · AA	30	41→37	47→50	54→55	34	.205/.252/.335	.130	.318	15	20	39%	5%	59	-1.1	.209/.245/.329	.120	.333	12	18	39%	4%	53	-1.5	.218/.246/.333	.114	.358	9	21	40%	4%	51	-1.0
✕Deven Marrero 2021 · MLB	30	39→48	44→45	53→50	41	.199/.251/.311	.112	.272	12	12	31%	6%	52	-1.6	.211/.271/.328	.117	.293	14	10	31%	7%	65	-0.7	.198/.263/.297	.099	.273	13	8	31%	8%	50	-0.6
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	48→50	52→50	40	.194/.248/.334	.140	.266	17	10	34%	6%	57	-1.2	.203/.262/.317	.114	.278	10	9	29%	7%	59	-1.1	.194/.252/.288	.094	.273	7	7	30%	6%	44	-0.8
✕John Nelson 2007 · AAA	28	34→35	47→45	48→45	37	.181/.241/.311	.129	.276	16	9	39%	6%	49	-1.8	.189/.246/.332	.143	.280	19	8	38%	6%	56	-1.3	.158/.218/.302	.144	.215	22	0	38%	6%	36	-1.3
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→40	46→50	47→50	40	.188/.262/.313	.125	.291	14	6	38%	8%	58	-1.2	.194/.263/.307	.113	.327	12	10	41%	8%	57	-1.2	.169/.240/.260	.091	.301	11	12	45%	8%	32	-1.5
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→37	49→50	51→50	36	.205/.244/.348	.143	.271	17	12	31%	4%	59	-1.1	.225/.280/.351	.126	.287	13	10	26%	6%	75	-0.0	.235/.302/.339	.104	.296	10	6	23%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Ali Solis 2018 · AAA	30	37	40→45	45→30	35	.188/.223/.275	.087	.262	8	5	31%	4%	30	-3.1	.204/.240/.332	.128	.284	15	6	33%	4%	53	-1.5	.196/.230/.353	.157	.249	23	3	32%	4%	51	-1.0
✕Ryan Budde 2010 · MLB	30	40	42→45	46→40	41	.200/.253/.304	.104	.270	10	6	29%	6%	51	-1.7	.190/.252/.276	.086	.291	8	6	35%	7%	43	-2.2	.167/.236/.228	.061	.269	5	4	37%	8%	23	-1.3
✕Matt Spring 2015 · AAA	30	36	51→50	43→45	34	.193/.248/.350	.157	.293	19	4	40%	6%	62	-0.9	.196/.252/.332	.136	.300	15	5	38%	6%	59	-1.1	.150/.208/.256	.107	.231	13	0	40%	7%	17	-1.5
✕Julio Ramirez 2006 · AAA	28	37→31	52→55	52→55	34	.204/.242/.360	.156	.272	22	22	34%	4%	62	-0.9	.198/.232/.315	.117	.285	15	18	35%	4%	45	-2.1	.160/.188/.215	.055	.257	6	12	39%	3%	-3	-1.5
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	45→50	49→55	40	.183/.244/.299	.117	.258	13	14	34%	7%	46	-2.0	.185/.247/.272	.087	.266	8	15	31%	7%	41	-2.3	.158/.224/.222	.065	.226	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0
✕Kevin Richardson 2011 · AAA	30	37	49→50	48→40	31	.191/.236/.331	.140	.301	18	5	42%	5%	52	-1.6	.210/.261/.350	.140	.339	16	6	41%	5%	67	-0.5	.205/.263/.335	.130	.337	15	0	41%	6%	60	-0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)