Aristides Aquino

PosRF

B/TR/R

Born1994-04-22

Age (2027)33

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTL

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2023	29	INTLTigres del Li…	69	.230/.319/.459	4	0	119	—
2024	30	INTLTigres del Li…	52	.163/.196/.388	3	1	54	—
2025	31	INTLJaguares de N…	32	.222/.344/.222	0	1	75	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2022

Speed81

Barrel%66

xwOBA21

Avg EV16

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	233	202	38	4	4	3	21	63	7	4	10	188	287	292	579	104	254	27	9	266	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK	DSL Reds	—	274	239	47	11	0	3	24	65	4	5	8	197	281	280	561	84	251	24	9	255	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	279	260	68	16	7	7	12	62	4	5	4	262	304	458	762	196	314	22	4	330	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	307	284	83	23	5	16	15	66	7	21	5	292	343	577	921	285	330	21	5	397	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	249	231	54	9	3	5	11	53	5	6	1	234	283	364	647	130	280	21	4	288	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	54	52	16	1	3	2	2	9	0	0	1	308	333	558	891	250	341	17	4	384	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+	Daytona Tortugas	—	526	484	132	26	12	23	34	104	6	11	7	273	328	519	847	246	304	20	6	367	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	504	459	99	20	6	17	39	145	4	9	3	216	283	397	679	181	274	29	8	301	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	45	42	9	1	0	0	1	9	1	1	0	214	250	238	488	24	265	20	2	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	445	404	97	20	2	20	35	112	4	4	5	240	307	448	755	208	282	25	8	332	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	20	17	4	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	235	350	294	644	59	308	20	15	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	225	205	53	8	0	19	16	60	2	7	0	259	318	576	894	317	266	27	7	382	131	+8	+1	+2	-6	+5	1.1
2019	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	323	294	88	13	1	28	23	81	4	5	1	299	358	636	994	337	321	25	7	425	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	47	43	9	3	1	1	3	6	0	1	0	209	261	395	656	186	216	13	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	47	8	1	0	2	6	18	3	1	0	170	304	319	623	149	222	32	11	292	79	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2021	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	204	174	33	6	1	10	27	75	1	2	2	190	302	408	710	218	253	37	13	315	88	-3	-0	-3	-3	+4	-0.5
2021	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	27	19	5	2	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	263	481	526	1.008	263	235	4	30	446	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	34	29	6	0	0	0	5	9	0	1	0	207	324	207	530		300	26	15	262	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	276	259	51	13	0	10	17	101	0	2	3	197	246	363	609	166	277	37	6	271	65	-11	-1	+3	-5	+6	-0.8
2022	28	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	91	77	24	6	0	8	9	33	4	2	1	312	411	701	1.112	390	432	36	10	468	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	89	75	12	1	2	3	11	30	2	1	0	160	284	347	631	187	209	34	12	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	69	61	14	2	0	4	7	17	1	0	1	230	319	459	778	230	250	25	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	52	49	8	0	1	3	2	19	0	1	0	163	196	388	584	224	179	37	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	32	27	6	0	0	0	5	7	0	1	0	222	344	222	566		300	22	16	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	761	685	145	28	1	41	66	254	6	12	5	212	287	435	722	223	264	33	9	317	101	+1	+0	+2	-15	+16	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	233	208	23	2	2	1	15	77	7	4	10	111	196	154	349	43	163	33	6	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	274	246	29	6	0	1	17	79	4	5	8	118	187	154	342	37	160	29	6	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	279	265	48	10	5	5	7	89	4	5	4	181	214	313	527	132	243	32	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	307	290	58	15	3	11	9	95	7	21	5	200	242	386	628	186	254	31	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	249	234	43	7	2	3	8	75	5	6	1	184	227	269	496	85	250	30	3	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	54	53	12	1	2	1	1	13	0	0	1	226	241	377	618	151	263	24	2	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	526	496	109	22	8	18	22	147	6	11	7	220	261	405	667	185	271	28	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	504	476	78	17	5	9	22	181	4	9	3	164	207	277	484	113	239	36	4	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	445	415	84	17	2	17	24	133	4	4	5	202	253	376	629	173	245	30	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	225	207	52	8	0	18	14	60	2	7	0	251	305	551	856	300	266	27	6	362	131	+8	+1	+2	-6	+5	1.1
2019	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	323	303	73	9	1	24	14	101	4	5	1	241	283	515	798	274	273	31	4	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	47	8	1	0	2	6	18	3	1	0	170	304	319	623	149	222	32	11	284	79	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	204	176	32	6	1	9	25	75	1	2	2	182	287	381	668	199	253	37	12	298	88	-3	-0	-3	-3	+4	-0.5
2021	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	27	22	5	2	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	227	370	455	825	227	210	4	19	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	276	259	50	13	0	9	17	101	0	2	3	193	243	347	590	154	277	37	6	264	65	-11	-1	+3	-5	+6	-0.8
2022	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	91	80	17	5	0	4	6	41	4	2	1	212	300	425	725	212	354	45	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	233	208	23	2	2	1	15	77	7	4	10	111	196	154	349	43	167	33	6	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	233	202	38	4	4	3	21	63	7	4	10	188	287	292	579	104	254	27	9	266	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	274	246	29	6	0	1	17	79	4	5	8	118	187	154	342	37	165	29	6	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	274	239	47	11	0	3	24	65	4	5	8	197	281	280	561	84	251	24	9	255	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	279	265	48	10	5	5	7	89	4	5	4	181	214	313	527	132	247	32	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	279	260	68	16	7	7	12	62	4	5	4	262	304	458	762	196	314	22	4	330	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	307	290	58	15	3	11	9	95	7	21	5	200	242	386	628	186	254	31	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	307	284	83	23	5	16	15	66	7	21	5	292	343	577	921	285	330	21	5	397	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	303	288	55	7	4	5	8	88	5	6	2	191	226	295	521	104	254	29	3	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	303	283	70	10	6	7	13	62	5	6	2	247	292	399	692	152	292	20	4	305	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	526	496	109	22	8	18	22	147	6	11	7	220	261	405	667	185	273	28	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	526	484	132	26	12	23	34	104	6	11	7	273	328	519	847	246	304	20	6	367	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	517	86	19	6	10	24	197	5	10	3	166	211	284	495	118	243	36	4	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	549	501	108	21	6	17	40	154	5	10	3	216	280	383	663	168	273	28	7	294	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	465	434	88	18	2	18	25	139	4	4	5	203	253	378	631	175	252	30	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	465	421	101	21	2	20	38	116	4	4	5	240	309	442	751	202	283	25	8	331	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	595	553	136	19	1	45	31	175	6	13	1	246	293	528	821	282	269	29	5	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	595	542	150	24	2	48	42	147	6	13	1	277	336	594	930	317	290	25	7	397	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	47	8	1	0	2	6	18	3	1	0	170	304	319	623	149	222	32	11	284	79	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	47	8	1	0	2	6	18	3	1	0	170	304	319	623	149	222	32	11	292	79	-1	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	265	228	42	9	1	11	34	87	1	3	2	184	293	377	670	193	235	33	13	304	92	-3	-0	-3	-3	+6	-0.3
2021	27	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	265	222	44	8	1	11	40	85	1	3	2	198	323	392	715	194	258	32	15	321	92	-3	-0	-3	-3	+6	-0.3
2022	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	456	419	83	22	0	16	29	177	6	5	4	198	260	365	625	167	294	39	6	276	73	-15	-1	+3	-5	+10	-0.7
2022	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	456	411	87	20	2	21	37	164	6	5	4	212	286	423	710	212	289	36	8	313	73	-15	-1	+3	-5	+10	-0.7
2023	29	INTL MLE	Tigres del Licey	—	69	61	14	2	0	4	7	17	1	0	1	230	319	459	778	230	250	25	10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	INTL RAW	Tigres del Licey	—	69	61	14	2	0	4	7	17	1	0	1	230	319	459	778	230	250	25	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL MLE	Tigres del Licey	—	52	49	8	0	1	3	2	19	0	1	0	163	196	388	584	224	179	37	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	INTL RAW	Tigres del Licey	—	52	49	8	0	1	3	2	19	0	1	0	163	196	388	584	224	179	37	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL MLE	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	32	27	6	0	0	0	5	7	0	1	0	222	344	222	566		300	22	16	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL RAW	Jaguares de Nayarit	—	32	27	6	0	0	0	5	7	0	1	0	222	344	222	566		300	22	16	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	233	209	23	2	2	1	15	77	7	4	10	110	196	153	349	43	163	33	6	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	274	251	29	6	0	1	17	79	4	5	8	116	187	151	339	36	160	29	6	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	279	266	48	10	5	5	7	89	4	5	4	180	214	312	526	132	243	32	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	307	288	58	15	3	11	9	95	7	21	5	201	242	389	631	188	254	31	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	303	287	55	7	4	5	8	88	5	6	2	192	226	296	522	105	252	29	3	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	526	493	109	22	8	18	22	147	6	11	7	221	261	408	669	187	271	28	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	515	86	19	6	10	24	197	5	10	3	167	211	285	496	118	239	36	4	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	465	433	88	18	2	18	25	139	4	4	5	203	253	379	631	176	245	30	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	595	553	136	19	1	45	31	175	6	13	1	246	293	528	821	282	270	29	5	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	56	47	8	1	0	2	6	18	3	1	0	170	304	319	623	149	222	32	11	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	265	228	42	9	1	11	34	87	1	3	2	184	293	377	670	193	248	33	13	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	456	418	83	22	0	16	29	177	6	5	4	199	260	366	626	167	296	39	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	761	685	145	28	1	41	66	254	6	12	5	212	287	435	722	223	264	33	9	317	56	+1	+0	+2	-15	+16	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	124	24	1	35	56	217	5	10	4	212	286	436	722	224	265	33	9	317	56	+1	+0	+1	-13	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4461	4128	793	152	33	150	241	1411	59	90	52	192	247	354	601	162	248	32	5	251	56	+1	+0	+2	-15	+16	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	116	22	5	22	35	206	9	13	8	193	248	356	604	163	249	32	5	251	56	+1	+0	+1	-13	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAALouisville Bats · 91 PAwOBA .460 → .311 (−149)K% 36.3% → 45.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.26%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	45.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.89%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.61%
HBP% /PA	4.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	4.10%
Singles /BIP	22.73%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×0.992	21.06%
Doubles /BIP	13.64%	÷0.955	×0.830	—	×0.992	11.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	18.18%	÷1.282	×0.700	—	×0.992	9.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 92, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .460 → .311; ISO .390 → .214; BABIP .432 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 27 PAwOBA .436 → .348 (−88)K% 3.7% → 4.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.70%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	4.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	29.63%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×1.003	18.66%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×1.003	10.43%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.945	×0.830	—	×1.003	9.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.59%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .436 → .348; ISO .263 → .224; BABIP .235 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 323 PAwOBA .415 → .339 (−75)K% 25.1% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.08%	÷0.960	×1.200	—	—	31.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.12%	÷1.151	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.41%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.20%
Singles /BIP	21.60%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	19.37%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷1.082	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	4.60%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	13.15%	÷0.957	×0.840	—	×1.033	11.92%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .415 → .339; ISO .337 → .285; BABIP .321 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 445 PAwOBA .322 → .269 (−52)K% 25.2% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.17%	÷1.030	×1.220	—	—	29.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.42%	÷0.967	×0.680	—	×1.012	5.28%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.76%
Singles /BIP	18.84%	÷1.023	×0.920	×0.972	×1.012	16.65%
Doubles /BIP	6.85%	÷1.039	×0.910	×0.972	×1.012	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.006	×0.880	×0.972	×1.012	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	6.85%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.012	6.10%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 105, 2B 108, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .322 → .269; ISO .208 → .179; BABIP .282 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 504 PAwOBA .291 → .216 (−74)K% 28.8% → 35.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.77%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	35.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.94%	÷1.095	×0.680	—	×1.027	4.43%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.68%
Singles /BIP	17.83%	÷1.018	×0.920	×0.956	×1.027	15.83%
Doubles /BIP	6.37%	÷0.997	×0.910	×0.956	×1.027	5.71%
Triples /BIP	1.91%	÷0.943	×0.880	×0.956	×1.027	1.75%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷1.399	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.18%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .291 → .216; ISO .181 → .122; BABIP .274 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 526 PAwOBA .356 → .285 (−71)K% 19.8% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.77%	÷1.004	×1.420	—	—	27.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.89%	÷1.059	×0.750	—	×1.012	4.22%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.07%
Singles /BIP	18.68%	÷0.983	×0.920	×0.988	×1.012	17.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.84%	÷1.061	×0.960	×0.988	×1.012	6.19%
Triples /BIP	3.16%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.988	×1.012	2.22%
Home runs /BIP	6.05%	÷1.063	×0.880	—	×1.012	5.07%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .356 → .285; ISO .246 → .188; BABIP .304 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ADayton Dragons · 249 PAwOBA .282 → .221 (−62)K% 21.3% → 30.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.29%	÷0.966	×1.360	—	—	29.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.42%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×1.015	3.09%
HBP% /PA	2.01%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.59%
Singles /BIP	20.79%	÷1.012	×0.920	×1.003	×1.015	19.24%
Doubles /BIP	5.06%	÷1.037	×0.830	×1.003	×1.015	4.12%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.137	×0.910	×1.003	×1.015	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	2.81%	÷1.078	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 127, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .282 → .221; ISO .130 → .093; BABIP .280 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKBillings Mustangs · 54 PAwOBA .367 → .261 (−106)K% 16.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	1.85%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×0.985	1.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.26%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.985	18.78%
Doubles /BIP	2.33%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	1.65%
Triples /BIP	6.98%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.985	4.95%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.985	3.44%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .367 → .261; ISO .250 → .170; BABIP .341 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .