Blake Dunn — OGILVIE

Blake DunnLF Cincinnati Reds

Age 27 R/R 5'9" / 210 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION293 act + 195 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .321 / .367

PA195

HR4

SB11

K%26

BB%7

BABIP321

ISO120

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

905.0%

xwOBA

270.282

POWER40

Barrel%

255.0

Avg EV

4388.6

Bat Spd

3870.0

EYE60

Chase%

9011.5%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.6

Platoon Splits2025 · 75 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

304

247

◀◀L

ISO

077

088

▶R

BABIP

308

190

◀◀L

37.1%

30.0%

▶▶R

BB%

14.3%

7.5%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.9M
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-3	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-4	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	ROK	2 teams	—	31	29	7	1	0	1	1	11	0	5	0	241	267	379	646	138	353	35	3	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	ROK	2 teams	—	31	28	8	1	0	1	2	8	0	5	0	286	333	429	762	143	368	26	6	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	127	99	26	5	1	5	18	39	7	18	1	263	411	485	896	222	382	31	14	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	127	93	27	5	1	4	24	29	7	18	1	290	468	495	962	204	383	23	19	422	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	2 teams	—	559	481	129	14	4	20	39	183	32	54	7	268	362	439	801	170	384	33	7	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	2 teams	—	559	458	143	17	5	23	62	130	32	54	7	312	429	522	951	210	386	23	11	417	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	450	401	81	15	1	6	31	147	9	23	2	202	274	289	564	87	301	33	7	251	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	450	385	90	17	2	8	47	124	9	23	2	234	331	351	682	117	323	28	10	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	497	431	97	14	2	8	45	154	16	25	4	225	321	323	644	97	330	31	9	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	497	414	112	16	2	8	62	127	16	25	4	271	386	377	763	106	371	26	12	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	CIN	—	293	264	71	12	1	3	18	63	8	13	4	269	334	356	691	87	340	22	6	305	91	-3	+1	+0	-3	+8	0.3
YTD	27	MLB	CIN	—	293	261	73	13	1	3	21	58	8	13	4	280	352	372	723	92	347	20	7	327	108	+3	+1	+0	-3	+8	0.9
ROS	27	MLB	CIN	100%	195	174	43	7	1	4	14	50	5	11	2	247	321	367	688	120	314	26	7	303	90	-2	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.4
ROS	27	MLB	CIN	100%	195	174	43	7	1	4	14	50	5	11	2	247	321	368	689	121	317	26	7	287	78	-5	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.1
FULL	27	MLB	CIN	—	488	438	114	19	2	7	32	113	13	24	6	260	329	361	690	100	333	23	7	298	86	-8	+2	+1	-5	+14	0.4
TOT	27	MLB	CIN	—	488	438	114	19	2	7	32	113	13	24	6	260	329	360	689	100	333	23	7	304	91	-5	+2	+1	-5	+14	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CIN	82%	392	350	83	13	1	7	29	101	10	20	4	237	314	340	654	103	312	26	7	300	87	-6	+2	+1	-4	+11	0.5
2028	29	MLB	CIN	82%	390	348	82	13	1	7	29	101	10	18	4	236	313	339	652	103	311	26	7	297	86	-6	+2	+0	-4	+11	0.3
2029	30	MLB	CIN	82%	388	347	82	13	1	7	29	101	9	16	4	236	312	340	652	104	309	26	7	294	83	-7	+2	-0	-4	+11	0.1
2027	28	MLB	CIN	82%	321	286	69	11	1	6	24	82	8	16	3	241	318	350	667	108	314	26	7	284	76	-9	+2	+1	-3	+9	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	CIN	82%	320	285	69	11	1	6	24	83	8	15	3	242	319	351	669	109	313	26	8	282	74	-9	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.2
2029	30	MLB	CIN	82%	318	283	68	11	1	6	24	83	8	13	3	240	317	350	667	110	312	26	8	279	72	-10	+1	-0	-3	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1258	1114	262	43	4	24	96	334	37	58	12	235	317	346	662	110	312	27	8	282	74	-37	+7	+4	-23	+36	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	135	22	2	12	50	173	19	30	6	234	317	342	659	108	311	27	8	282	74	-19	+4	+2	-12	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	3029	2660	630	95	12	65	235	887	98	190	28	237	322	355	677	118	328	29	8	300	88	-41	+27	+4	-32	+86	4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	571	135	20	3	14	50	190	21	41	6	236	321	356	676	119	327	29	8	300	88	-9	+6	+1	-7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	15	14	5	1	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	357	357	643	1.000	286	500	33	0	405	168	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
2021	22	ROK	ACL Reds	—	16	14	3	0	0	0	2	3	0	5	0	214	312	214	527		273	19	12	257	55	-1	+1	—	—	+0	0.1
2022	23	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	127	93	27	5	1	4	24	29	7	18	1	290	468	495	962	204	383	23	19	422	181	+12	+3	—	—	+4	1.9
2023	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	357	295	98	13	4	15	41	84	15	35	4	332	439	556	995	224	413	24	11	431	188	+35	+5	—	—	+10	5.2
2023	24	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	202	163	45	4	1	8	21	46	17	19	3	276	413	460	873	184	336	23	10	394	159	+14	+3	—	—	+6	2.2
2024	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	29	26	4	1	0	1	2	11	1	2	0	154	241	308	549	154	214	38	7	252	51	-2	+0	+0	-5	+1	-0.5
2024	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	421	359	86	16	2	7	45	113	8	21	2	240	337	354	691	114	329	27	11	311	96	-2	+3	—	—	+12	1.4
2025	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	75	60	9	2	0	1	8	25	7	1	1	150	320	233	553	83	235	33	11	277	70	-3	-0	+1	-5	+2	-0.5
2025	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	422	354	103	14	2	7	54	102	9	24	3	291	398	401	799	110	390	24	13	361	135	+17	+4	—	—	+12	3.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	104	86	13	3	0	2	10	36	8	3	1	151	298	256	554	105	229	35	10	270	65	-4	+0	+2	-10	+3	-1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	10	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
	/162	664	9	26	241	331	351	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Jose Maciaslast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA	6	1,785	25	43	256	298	370	-8	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	16	256	298	370	-3.1	+0.6	0.5	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,539	28	73	235	311	344	-16	+4	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	12	32	235	311	344	-7.1	+1.7	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Blake Dunn (OGILVIE)	27	55	40	60	60	260/329/360	100	333	7	24	23%	7%	91	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Andreoli 2017 · AAA	27	47→57	43→45	61→60	48	226/303/342	116	313	10	34	29%	9%	82	+0.5	219/297/348	129	310	12	24	30%	9%	82	+0.5	208/292/334	126	298	11	21	31%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Delino DeShields 2020 · MLB	27	49→55	40→45	58→65	52	233/312/327	94	301	7	32	24%	10%	82	+0.5	224/309/310	86	306	6	28	26%	10%	76	+0.1	207/307/267	61	307	3	31	30%	12%	63	-0.5
✕Eric Patterson 2010 · MLB	27	50→55	44→50	62→60	47	245/299/374	129	301	11	32	22%	7%	88	+0.9	218/277/348	130	280	11	27	25%	7%	72	-0.2	195/260/315	121	257	9	26	27%	8%	55	-0.6
✕Roman Quinn 2020 · MLB	27	50→53	46→45	63→65	45	243/302/380	138	325	13	32	28%	8%	91	+1.1	227/299/359	132	324	12	30	31%	8%	85	+0.7	178/270/282	103	310	9	41	41%	9%	52	-0.4
✕Drew Stubbs 2012 · MLB	27	50→51	47→50	59→60	47	242/315/376	134	325	15	33	29%	9%	96	+1.5	229/296/359	130	316	15	27	30%	8%	84	+0.6	227/297/360	133	323	13	24	32%	9%	81	+0.3
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Bryce Johnson 2023 · MLB	27	51→53	42→45	63→60	42	238/304/346	108	347	9	35	32%	8%	83	+0.6	232/305/340	108	323	9	29	28%	8%	82	+0.5	231/309/333	102	319	8	29	27%	8%	79	+0.2
✕Tim Locastro 2020 · MLB	28	49→53	42→45	60	44	236/324/349	114	285	8	29	19%	5%	95	+1.4	222/308/343	121	268	10	25	21%	6%	86	+0.8	207/296/319	112	263	11	36	24%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Lane Adams 2017 · AAA	27	46	45→50	59→60	41	226/278/347	121	303	13	32	29%	6%	73	-0.1	209/269/343	134	317	15	29	36%	7%	69	-0.4	188/255/332	144	293	17	28	40%	7%	57	-0.6
✕John Raynor 2010 · AAA	26	49→57	43→45	56→60	43	232/294/344	112	322	10	27	29%	7%	79	+0.3	229/286/331	102	306	9	16	27%	7%	72	-0.2	252/311/329	78	313	7	10	21%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Phillip Ervin 2019 · MLB	27	46→50	47→50	54→55	46	227/294/362	135	282	14	23	24%	7%	84	+0.6	225/296/365	140	291	14	15	26%	8%	85	+0.7	214/283/361	147	278	16	16	28%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Cade Gotta 2019 · AAA	27	49→51	40→45	59→55	45	236/284/338	103	297	6	32	22%	6%	72	-0.2	236/303/353	117	306	9	21	24%	9%	85	+0.7	241/323/356	115	311	9	21	24%	11%	95	+0.5
✕Drew Avans 2023 · AAA	27	51→55	43→50	66→60	44	236/303/357	122	337	8	34	30%	8%	85	+0.7	225/294/326	101	320	8	28	30%	8%	74	-0.1	225/296/318	92	315	8	30	29%	9%	70	-0.3
✕Kevin Thompson 2007 · MLB	27	49→52	46→50	56→60	49	242/309/386	144	291	12	25	21%	8%	96	+1.5	234/298/355	121	289	10	29	21%	7%	83	+0.6	238/304/349	111	297	8	38	21%	8%	80	+0.2
✕Tyler Saladino 2016 · MLB	27	48→47	41→45	59→55	45	233/284/335	102	283	9	25	21%	6%	72	-0.2	232/287/337	105	290	10	19	23%	6%	73	-0.1	225/286/324	99	288	10	17	24%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Nate Eaton 2023 · MLB	26	46→49	46→50	60	44	226/292/355	129	295	13	29	27%	7%	82	+0.5	218/266/356	138	283	16	27	28%	5%	70	-0.3	219/272/357	138	284	14	27	27%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Quintin Berry 2012 · AAA	27	49→59	40	58→65	46	232/300/318	85	317	7	35	27%	8%	75	-0.0	230/300/307	77	315	5	36	26%	8%	72	-0.2	232/303/299	68	314	3	38	25%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Tyler Graham 2011 · AAA	27	57→56	39→40	58→65	42	270/313/358	88	341	7	38	22%	5%	89	+1.0	247/301/324	77	315	4	41	22%	5%	76	+0.1	235/284/290	56	296	3	48	20%	5%	56	-0.8
●Cameron Maybin 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	46→50	57→55	50	243/308/374	131	289	13	28	20%	8%	92	+1.2	252/314/365	113	305	10	18	19%	8%	92	+1.2	259/332/373	114	311	10	30	19%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Fernando Perez 2010 · MLB	27	55→61	41→45	60	44	251/310/356	105	364	7	33	31%	8%	88	+0.9	205/251/279	74	288	5	26	29%	6%	43	-2.2	190/236/250	60	264	4	28	28%	5%	26	-2.4