Blake Dunn

RF Cincinnati Reds
Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 210 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 1.077 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
Overview
MLBIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AAACIN421.240/.337/.35472158—.212/.286/.300
202425MLBCIN29.154/.241/.3081252-0.5
202526AAACIN422.291/.398/.40172485—.245/.329/.329
202526MLBCIN75.150/.320/.2331171-0.6
202627AAACIN138.277/.368/.3531777—.254/.331/.320
202627MLBCIN155.282/.338/.387261040.1
2027PROJ28MLBCIN129.232/.311/.35138870.1
2028PROJ65% MLB29MLBCIN157.230/.308/.3443984-0.0
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0  ·  Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.077First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.4M2030Ext$0.7M2031Ext$1M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed90
Avg EV43
Bat Spd38
xwOBA28
Barrel%25
CompsDarin Mastroianni (age 27) · Delino DeShields (age 27) · Craig Gentry (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†87
AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .311 / .351
PA129
HR3
SB8
K%26
BB%8
BABIP299
ISO130
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +1.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +2.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT55
xAVG
100.217
POWER40
Barrel%
255.0
Avg EV
4388.6
Bat Spd
3870.0
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
9029.6
Platoon Splits2025 · 75 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
35
40
—
wRC+
92
54
◀◀L
wOBA
304
247
◀◀L
ISO
077
088
▶R
BABIP
308
190
◀◀L
K%
37.1%
30.0%
▶▶R
BB%
14.3%
7.5%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2024
Service   1.077 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.8M+$0.0M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.8M $0.8M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 ADaytona Tortugas — 1514 5101 050 00 3573576431.000 286500 330 405 100 — — — — — —
202122 ROKACL Reds — 1614 3000 230 50 214312214527 273 1912 257 7 — — — — — —
202223 ADaytona Tortugas — 12793 27514 24297 181 290468495962 204383 2319 422 118 — — — — — —
202324 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 357295 9813415 418415 354 332439556995 224413 2411 431 130 — — — — — —
202324 A+Dayton Dragons — 202163 45418 214617 193 276413460873 184336 2310 394 94 — — — — — —
202425 MLBCincinnati Reds — 2926 4101 2111 20 154241308549 154214 387 252 52 -2 +0 +0 -5 +1 -0.5
202425 AAALouisville Bats — 421359 861627 451138 212 240337354691 114329 2711 311 58 — — — — — —
202526 MLBCincinnati Reds — 7560 9201 8257 11 150320233553 83235 3311 277 71 -3 -0 +1 -5 +2 -0.6
202526 AAALouisville Bats — 422354 1031427 541029 243 291398401799 110390 2413 361 85 — — — — — —
202627 MLBCincinnati Reds — 155142 40712 10332 63 282338387725 106352 216 325 104 +1 +0 +0 -3 +3 0.1
202627 AAALouisville Bats — 138119 33601 11256 71 277368353721 76340 188 329 77 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 259228 531014 206910 94 232322338659 105314 278 303 91 -3 +0 +2 -13 +6 -0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 1514 5101 070 00 3573576431.000 286433 470 316 100 — — — — — —
202122 ROK MLEACL Reds — 1615 2000 140 50 133188133321 222 256 179 7 — — — — — —
202223 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 127101 25414 16397 181 248387426813 178334 3113 342 118 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 357310 9112312 2610715 354 294376468844 174387 307 361 130 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 202170 38316 146017 193 224343359702 135288 307 307 94 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 2926 4101 2111 20 154241308549 154214 387 246 52 -2 +0 +0 -5 +1 -0.5
202425 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 421373 791425 311368 212 212286300587 88302 327 254 58 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 7560 9201 8257 11 150320233553 83235 3311 273 71 -3 -0 +1 -5 +2 -0.6
202526 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 422371 911225 371259 243 245329329657 84348 309 294 85 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 155142 40712 10332 63 282338387725 106352 216 322 104 +1 +0 +0 -3 +3 0.1
202627 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 138122 31501 8306 71 254331320651 66312 226 282 77 — — — — — —
202122 ROK MLE2 teams — 3129 7101 1110 50 241267379646 138353 353 245 52 — — — — — —
202122 ROK RAW2 teams — 3128 8101 280 50 286333429762 143368 266 329 52 — — — — — —
202223 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 127101 25414 16397 181 248387426813 178362 3113 342 118 — — — — — —
202223 A RAWDaytona Tortugas — 12793 27514 24297 181 290468495962 204383 2319 422 118 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLE2 teams — 559480 12915418 4016732 547 269364429793 160369 307 341 117 — — — — — —
202324 AA RAW2 teams — 559458 14317523 6213032 547 312429522951 210386 2311 417 117 — — — — — —
202425 AAA MLE2 teams — 450399 821525 331479 232 206281291572 85310 337 253 58 — — — — — —
202425 AAA RAW2 teams — 450385 901728 471249 232 234331351682 117323 2810 307 58 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 497431 1001426 4515016 254 232327316643 84341 309 291 83 — — — — — —
202526 AAA RAW2 teams — 497414 1121628 6212716 254 271386377763 106371 2612 349 83 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLE2 teams — 293264 701213 18638 134 265331352683 87335 226 303 91 -3 +1 +0 -3 +6 0.1
202627 MLB RAW2 teams — 293261 731313 21588 134 280352372723 92347 207 327 91 -3 +1 +0 -3 +6 0.1
202122 ROK MLE2 teams — 3130 7101 1110 50 233267367633 133324 353 245 52 — — — — — —
202223 A MLEDaytona Tortugas — 127103 25414 16397 181 243387417805 175334 3113 342 118 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLE2 teams — 559482 12915418 4016732 547 268364427792 160351 307 341 117 — — — — — —
202425 AAA MLE2 teams — 450405 821525 331479 232 202281286568 84296 337 253 58 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 497433 1001426 4515016 254 231327314641 83331 309 291 83 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLE2 teams — 293265 701213 18638 134 264331351682 87333 226 303 91 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AAA MLE2 teams — 450405 821525 331479 232 202281286568 84296 337 253 58 — — — — — —
202526 AAA MLE2 teams — 497433 1001426 4515016 254 231327314641 83331 309 291 83 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLE2 teams — 293265 701213 18638 134 264331351682 87333 226 303 91 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLECIN 100% 309275 631016 24807 193 230309344654 114298 268 297 87 -5 +3 +1 -3 +7 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXCIN 100% 129115 27413 10333 81 232311351663 119299 268 300 87 -2 +1 +0 -1 +3 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLECIN 65% 242216 50815 19635 132 228306337644 110296 268 293 84 -5 +2 -1 -3 +5 -0.1
202829 MLB CTXCIN 65% 157140 32513 12414 91 230308344652 114297 268 296 84 -3 +1 -0 -2 +3 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 416368 851527 3211014 185 231316340656 109308 268 300 89 -6 +2 +1 -15 +9 -0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650575 13223311 5017222 288 230315337653 108306 268 300 89 -9 +2 +2 -23 +14 -1.4
Career— MLE — 23282035 490731245 18267380 15921 241327355682 114335 298 300 89 -9 +3 +1 -17 +14 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650568 13720313 5118822 446 241327356683 114335 298 300 89 -10 +3 +1 -18 +14 -0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 138 PAwOBA .323 → .282 (−41)K% 18.1% → 21.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.12%÷1.000×1.200——21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.97%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9925.46%
HBP% /PA4.35%—×0.940—×0.9924.05%
Singles /BIP27.66%÷1.000×0.930×1.017×0.99225.94%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷1.000×0.830×1.017×0.9925.34%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×1.017×0.9920.00%
Home runs /BIP1.06%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9920.74%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .323 → .282; ISO .076 → .060; BABIP .340 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 422 PAwOBA .353 → .294 (−59)K% 24.2% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.17%÷0.975×1.200——29.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.80%÷1.002×0.690—×1.0038.84%
HBP% /PA2.13%—×0.940—×1.0032.01%
Singles /BIP31.75%÷1.049×0.930×1.013×1.00328.60%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷0.992×0.830×1.013×1.0034.72%
Triples /BIP0.79%÷0.900×0.970×1.013×1.0030.87%
Home runs /BIP2.78%÷0.901×0.700—×1.0032.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .353 → .294; ISO .110 → .092; BABIP .390 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 421 PAwOBA .304 → .254 (−50)K% 26.8% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.84%÷0.999×1.200——32.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.69%÷1.032×0.690—×1.0187.27%
HBP% /PA1.90%—×0.940—×1.0181.82%
Singles /BIP24.80%÷0.995×0.930×0.993×1.01823.43%
Doubles /BIP6.50%÷0.964×0.830×0.993×1.0185.66%
Triples /BIP0.81%÷1.150×0.970×0.993×1.0180.69%
Home runs /BIP2.85%÷1.111×0.700—×1.0181.83%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .304 → .254; ISO .114 → .086; BABIP .329 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 357 PAwOBA .425 → .361 (−64)K% 23.5% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.53%÷0.961×1.220——29.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.48%÷1.069×0.680—×0.9987.29%
HBP% /PA4.20%—×0.840—×0.9983.52%
Singles /BIP31.28%÷0.986×0.920×1.037×0.99830.21%
Doubles /BIP6.16%÷1.004×0.910×1.037×0.9985.78%
Triples /BIP1.90%÷1.150×0.880×1.037×0.9981.50%
Home runs /BIP7.11%÷1.017×0.800—×0.9985.58%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .425 → .361; ISO .224 → .183; BABIP .413 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 202 PAwOBA .384 → .307 (−77)K% 22.8% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.77%÷0.975×1.270——29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.90%÷1.020×0.710—×0.9786.74%
HBP% /PA8.42%—×0.790—×0.9786.50%
Singles /BIP27.35%÷0.979×0.920×0.960×0.97824.11%
Doubles /BIP3.42%÷1.027×0.810×0.960×0.9782.53%
Triples /BIP0.85%÷0.916×0.850×0.960×0.9780.74%
Home runs /BIP6.84%÷0.951×0.800—×0.9785.63%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .384 → .307; ISO .184 → .148; BABIP .336 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 127 PAwOBA .410 → .342 (−68)K% 22.8% → 30.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.83%÷1.021×1.360——30.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.11%÷0.986×0.690—×0.98012.42%
HBP% /PA5.51%—×0.780—×0.9804.21%
Singles /BIP26.56%÷1.016×0.920×1.015×0.98023.91%
Doubles /BIP7.81%÷1.028×0.830×1.015×0.9806.27%
Triples /BIP1.56%÷1.016×0.910×1.015×0.9801.39%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷0.883×0.800—×0.9805.55%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 103, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .410 → .342; ISO .204 → .186; BABIP .383 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Reds · 16 PAwOBA .251 → .179 (−72)K% 18.8% → 27.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷0.987×1.440——27.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷0.995×0.620—×0.9657.51%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Singles /BIP27.27%÷0.972×0.820—×0.96522.19%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.981×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.990×0.720—×0.9650.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.026×0.780—×0.9650.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 98, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .251 → .179; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 15 PAwOBA .393 → .316 (−76)K% 33.3% → 43.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷1.038×1.360——43.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷1.009×0.690—×0.9900.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780—×0.9900.00%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.003×0.920—×0.99030.27%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.003×0.830—×0.9909.10%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.944×0.910—×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP11.11%÷0.969×0.800—×0.9909.08%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 89, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .393 → .316; ISO .286 → .219; BABIP .500 → .433. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).