Kyren Paris

2B Salt Lake Bees

Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.667 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAA/AALAA	251	.167/.258/.278	4	16	20	—	.143/.217/.232
2024	22	MLBLAA	59	.118/.220/.216	1	1	27	-0.5
2025	23	AAA/INTL2 orgs	209	.238/.390/.439	7	14	105	—	.190/.304/.371
2025	23	MLBLAA	140	.190/.264/.381	6	7	80	0.3
2026	24	AAA/AALAA	409	.274/.388/.458	13	24	96	—	.243/.328/.388
2026	24	MLBLAA	18	.000/.167/.000	0	0	-35	-0.1
2027PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBLAA	107	.197/.284/.346	3	5	79	0.1
2028PROJ59% MLB	26	MLBLAA	185	.199/.287/.356	6	9	82	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	204	.198/.286/.354	7	10	81	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.667First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.9M2031Arb-2$1M2032Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

Barrel%77

Bat Spd68

Avg EV39

xwOBA10

CompsAaron Palensky (age 25) · Jeter Downs (age 25) · Joey Wiemer (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8179vR 71

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .284 / .346

PA107

HR3

SB5

K%33

BB%9

BABIP268

ISO147

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 25 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT25

xAVG

100.168

POWER60

Barrel%

7712.2

Avg EV

3988.3

Bat Spd

6873.2

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.0

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 199 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

151

—

wRC+

▶R

wOBA

255

267

▶R

ISO

191

158

◀◀L

BABIP

210

272

▶▶R

29.2%

41.1%

◀◀L

BB%

4.2%

9.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 0.667 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	19	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	55	52	12	2	1	1	2	20	1	4	0	231	273	365	638	135	355	36	4	284	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	136	106	29	5	6	2	27	41	3	16	4	274	434	491	924	217	429	30	20	410	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Angels	—	15	14	5	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	357	400	571	971	214	400	20	7	427	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	51	39	14	2	0	3	10	14	2	5	0	359	510	641	1.151	282	500	27	20	498	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	392	328	75	18	5	8	49	117	9	28	4	229	344	387	731	159	330	30	12	328	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	70	55	12	0	0	0	13	24	2	2	0	218	386	218	604		387	34	19	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	46	40	4	0	0	0	4	17	1	3	0	100	200	100	300		174	37	9	155	-9	-6	+1	+2	+6	+1	0.3
2023	21	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	514	415	106	23	1	14	88	151	7	44	5	255	393	417	809	161	365	29	17	366	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	59	51	6	2	0	1	7	17	0	1	0	118	220	216	436	98	152	29	12	208	27	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2024	22	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	159	139	29	5	2	4	16	52	0	8	1	209	290	360	650	151	294	33	10	286	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	92	77	7	1	1	0	9	36	2	8	1	91	202	130	332	39	159	39	10	165	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	140	126	24	4	1	6	10	59	3	7	1	190	264	381	645	190	295	42	7	287	80	-3	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.3
2025	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	137	111	25	3	3	6	20	37	4	11	1	225	363	468	831	243	275	27	15	364	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	72	53	14	3	0	1	15	16	2	3	1	264	443	377	820	113	351	22	21	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	18	15	0	0	0	0	3	8	0	0	0		167		167			44	17	116	-35	-3	+0	+0	+2	+0	-0.1
2026	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	289	231	71	18	0	13	50	82	2	16	3	307	433	554	987	247	411	28	17	425	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	120	105	21	3	1	0	12	39	0	8	3	200	280	248	527	48	313	32	10	244	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	263	232	34	6	1	7	24	101	4	11	1	147	237	272	508	125	218	38	9	234	45	-17	+2	+1	+10	+6	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	19	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	55	53	10	2	1	1	1	26	1	4	0	189	218	321	539	132	313	47	2	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	136	114	22	4	4	1	19	58	3	16	4	193	324	325	648	132	374	43	14	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	15	14	4	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	286	333	500	833	214	320	27	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	51	42	13	2	0	2	7	17	2	5	0	310	431	500	931	190	460	33	14	408	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	392	343	62	15	3	8	35	151	9	28	4	181	274	312	586	131	284	39	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	46	40	4	0	0	0	4	17	1	3	0	100	200	100	300		174	37	9	155	-9	-6	+1	+2	+6	+1	0.3
2023	21	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	514	444	104	24	1	12	61	178	7	44	5	234	336	374	710	140	358	35	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	59	52	6	2	0	1	7	17	0	1	0	115	220	212	432	96	152	29	12	209	27	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2024	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	159	143	26	4	2	3	12	64	0	8	1	182	245	301	546	119	273	40	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	92	80	6	1	1	0	7	45	2	8	1	75	169	113	281	38	146	49	8	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	140	127	24	4	1	6	10	59	3	7	1	189	264	378	642	189	295	42	7	287	80	-3	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.3
2025	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	137	116	22	3	3	4	15	45	4	11	1	190	304	371	674	181	254	33	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	18	15	0	0	0	0	3	8	0	0	0		167		167			44	17	116	-35	-3	+0	+0	+2	+0	-0.1
2026	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	289	246	66	16	0	10	36	98	2	16	3	268	366	455	821	187	377	34	12	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	120	110	20	3	1	0	8	48	0	8	3	182	237	227	465	45	297	40	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	206	181	35	5	5	3	21	88	4	22	4	193	291	326	617	133	356	43	10	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	206	172	46	7	7	4	30	64	4	22	4	267	388	459	848	192	404	31	15	378	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	513	447	88	20	4	12	48	194	13	35	4	197	293	340	633	143	315	38	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	513	422	101	20	5	11	72	155	13	35	4	239	366	389	755	149	352	30	14	342	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	560	484	108	24	1	12	65	195	8	47	5	223	325	351	676	128	344	35	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	560	455	110	23	1	14	92	168	8	47	5	242	377	389	766	147	349	30	16	349	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	310	275	38	7	3	4	26	126	2	17	2	138	218	229	447	91	227	41	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	310	267	42	8	3	5	32	105	2	17	2	157	251	266	517	109	228	34	10	235	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	349	304	59	9	5	13	32	131	9	21	3	194	290	385	675	191	284	38	9	292	84	-7	+3	+1	+1	+8	0.6
2025	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	349	290	63	10	4	13	45	112	9	21	3	217	339	414	753	197	299	32	13	335	84	-7	+3	+1	+1	+8	0.6
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	427	371	86	19	1	10	47	154	2	24	6	232	321	369	691	137	357	36	11	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	427	351	92	21	1	13	65	129	2	24	6	262	379	439	817	177	367	30	15	361	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	206	179	35	5	5	3	21	88	4	22	4	196	291	330	621	134	354	43	10	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	513	447	88	20	4	12	48	194	13	35	4	197	293	340	633	143	304	38	9	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	560	482	108	24	1	12	65	195	8	47	5	224	325	353	678	129	343	35	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	310	279	38	7	3	4	26	126	2	17	2	136	218	226	444	90	212	41	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	349	305	59	9	5	13	32	131	9	21	3	193	290	384	673	190	275	38	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	427	375	86	19	1	10	47	154	2	24	6	229	321	365	687	136	339	36	11	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	310	279	38	7	3	4	26	126	2	17	2	136	218	226	444	90	212	41	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	349	305	59	9	5	13	32	131	9	21	3	193	290	384	673	190	275	38	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	427	375	86	19	1	10	47	154	2	24	6	229	321	365	687	136	339	36	11	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	45%	380	336	66	12	2	11	37	124	4	19	4	198	285	347	632	149	270	33	10	285	79	-10	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	45%	107	95	19	3	1	3	10	35	1	5	1	197	284	346	631	149	268	33	9	284	79	-3	+1	+0	+0	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	59%	315	278	56	10	2	10	31	103	3	16	3	200	287	357	644	157	270	33	10	289	82	-7	+2	+0	+1	+7	0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	63%	323	285	57	10	2	10	32	106	3	16	3	199	286	354	640	155	269	33	10	288	81	-7	+2	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	324	286	57	10	2	10	32	107	3	14	3	197	284	349	633	152	268	33	10	285	79	-8	+2	-0	+1	+7	0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	314	277	54	10	1	10	31	104	3	12	2	194	281	343	624	148	266	33	10	281	77	-9	+2	-1	+1	+7	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	305	269	51	9	1	9	30	102	3	10	2	191	278	335	612	143	264	33	10	277	73	-10	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	59%	185	163	33	6	1	6	18	60	2	9	2	199	287	356	643	157	268	32	10	289	82	-4	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	63%	204	180	36	6	1	7	20	67	2	10	2	198	286	354	639	156	267	33	10	287	81	-5	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	212	187	37	6	1	7	21	70	2	9	2	196	284	349	632	153	266	33	10	285	79	-5	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	204	180	35	6	1	6	20	68	2	8	2	193	281	342	623	149	264	33	10	281	77	-6	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	197	174	34	6	1	6	19	66	2	6	1	190	277	334	611	144	262	34	10	276	73	-6	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1265	1116	209	36	6	39	122	432	14	53	10	187	275	335	610	148	262	34	10	273	76	-43	+7	-1	+13	+27	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	107	18	3	20	63	222	7	27	5	187	275	333	608	147	260	34	10	273	76	-22	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4184	3668	731	141	28	110	418	1487	55	246	39	199	291	343	634	144	296	36	10	281	76	-64	+12	-2	+16	+45	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	113	22	4	17	65	231	9	38	6	198	291	340	631	142	294	36	10	281	76	-20	+4	-1	+5	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 289 PAwOBA .421 → .354 (−67)K% 28.4% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.37%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	34.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.30%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	12.33%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.67%
Singles /BIP	26.85%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.012	×1.033	26.11%
Doubles /BIP	12.08%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.012	×1.033	10.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.012	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.72%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	6.31%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .421 → .354; ISO .247 → .195; BABIP .411 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 120 PAwOBA .240 → .204 (−36)K% 32.5% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.50%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	39.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.998	6.79%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.76%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.035	×0.998	24.47%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.035	×0.998	4.27%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.035	×0.998	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .240 → .204; ISO .048 → .043; BABIP .313 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 137 PAwOBA .357 → .297 (−61)K% 27.0% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.01%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.60%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.95%
HBP% /PA	2.92%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.88%
Singles /BIP	17.57%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.021	×1.048	16.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.05%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.021	×1.048	3.58%
Triples /BIP	4.05%	÷1.079	×0.970	×1.021	×1.048	3.90%
Home runs /BIP	8.11%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.048	6.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .357 → .297; ISO .243 → .193; BABIP .275 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 159 PAwOBA .282 → .235 (−47)K% 32.7% → 40.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.70%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	40.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.06%	÷0.944	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.035	×1.050	20.29%
Doubles /BIP	5.75%	÷1.141	×0.830	×1.035	×1.050	4.54%
Triples /BIP	2.30%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.035	×1.050	2.11%
Home runs /BIP	4.60%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .282 → .235; ISO .151 → .120; BABIP .294 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 92 PAwOBA .167 → .134 (−33)K% 39.1% → 49.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.13%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	49.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.78%	÷0.966	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.07%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.88%
Singles /BIP	12.20%	÷1.016	×0.920	×1.008	×1.027	11.43%
Doubles /BIP	2.44%	÷1.072	×0.910	×1.008	×1.027	2.14%
Triples /BIP	2.44%	÷1.045	×0.880	×1.008	×1.027	2.13%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.976	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .167 → .134; ISO .039 → .032; BABIP .159 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 514 PAwOBA .359 → .316 (−43)K% 29.4% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.38%	÷1.032	×1.220	—	—	34.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.12%	÷1.017	×0.680	—	×1.042	11.92%
HBP% /PA	1.36%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.19%
Singles /BIP	25.76%	÷0.985	×0.920	×0.996	×1.042	24.98%
Doubles /BIP	8.71%	÷0.910	×0.910	×0.996	×1.042	9.04%
Triples /BIP	0.38%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.996	×1.042	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	5.30%	÷0.970	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.55%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .359 → .316; ISO .161 → .152; BABIP .365 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 392 PAwOBA .320 → .257 (−63)K% 29.8% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.85%	÷1.046	×1.350	—	—	38.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.027	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.87%
HBP% /PA	2.30%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	1.91%
Singles /BIP	20.85%	÷1.052	×0.910	×0.975	×1.027	18.07%
Doubles /BIP	8.53%	÷0.939	×0.830	×0.975	×1.027	7.55%
Triples /BIP	2.37%	÷1.150	×0.820	×0.975	×1.027	1.69%
Home runs /BIP	3.79%	÷0.814	×0.830	—	×1.027	3.97%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 110, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 109, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .320 → .257; ISO .159 → .138; BABIP .330 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 51 PAwOBA .486 → .408 (−78)K% 27.5% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.45%	÷1.023	×1.220	—	—	32.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.61%	÷1.041	×0.680	—	×1.050	13.45%
HBP% /PA	3.92%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.46%
Singles /BIP	36.00%	÷1.020	×0.920	—	×1.050	34.11%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷0.978	×0.910	—	×1.050	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.00%	÷1.131	×0.800	—	×1.050	8.91%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 104, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .486 → .408; ISO .282 → .228; BABIP .500 → .460. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.0	1,308	41	56	193	277	346	+5	+2	1.1	1.1
/162	664	21	28	+2.4	+0.8	0.5	pk7: 1
#4Doug Strange'89-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,067 PA	3.1	2,067	31	14	225*	286*	340*	+5	-0	-1.5	0.0
/162	664	10	4	+1.6	-0.1	-0.5	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Hector Torres'68-'77 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	18	7	215*	262*	312*	+16	+3	-2.1	-0.9
/162	664	6	2	+5.7	+1.2	-0.7	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyren Paris (OGILVIE)	25	25	60	60	55	196/283/344	148	270	7	12	33%	10%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
✕Jeter Downs 2023 · MLB	25	32→41	47→50	54→55	40	174/250/300	127	251	17	22	37%	7%	57	-1.8	201/286/335	134	282	14	22	32%	9%	78	-0.3	196/290/328	132	272	11	27	30%	9%	77	-0.1
✕Joey Wiemer 2024 · MLB	25	42→44	51→55	53→55	44	216/285/378	162	283	19	19	30%	8%	86	+0.3	200/275/316	116	285	12	15	32%	8%	69	-0.9	188/266/285	98	276	10	14	33%	8%	56	-1.2
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA	26	39→32	49→45	56→50	45	202/280/345	143	284	17	20	34%	9%	77	-0.3	202/266/314	112	287	11	12	32%	7%	64	-1.3	193/253/289	96	272	9	8	31%	6%	51	-1.3
✕Alerick Soularie 2024 · AA	25	40	45	55→60	46	198/284/317	119	288	13	23	34%	10%	72	-0.7	207/283/318	111	293	11	24	31%	8%	72	-0.7	172/252/257	85	238	9	42	30%	8%	49	-0.6
✕Kenedy Corona 2024 · AA	24	41→42	48→50	54→55	41	211/269/351	141	285	16	24	31%	7%	74	-0.5	207/273/312	105	285	10	24	29%	7%	67	-1.1	202/273/295	93	277	8	27	28%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41→42	49→50	58→55	46	213/273/359	146	256	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	218/276/366	148	265	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.2	210/266/364	154	249	17	20	23%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Kevin Smith 2022 · MLB	26	40→45	52→55	53→50	41	212/272/383	171	282	20	17	32%	7%	83	+0.1	213/260/353	140	300	17	15	33%	5%	71	-0.8	203/246/328	125	292	16	15	35%	5%	58	-1.1
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	44	48→50	58→60	47	221/295/372	151	285	15	28	27%	8%	88	+0.5	208/279/348	140	290	14	25	31%	8%	77	-0.3	192/263/324	133	273	13	24	33%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Pedro León 2023 · AAA	25	42→49	48→50	53→55	46	203/304/348	145	307	15	31	36%	10%	88	+0.4	226/298/380	154	322	18	24	33%	7%	92	+0.7	227/291/377	150	326	18	25	34%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA	27	42→43	49→50	56→55	44	214/289/355	141	288	17	23	31%	8%	83	+0.1	208/287/334	126	288	14	21	31%	8%	77	-0.3	192/277/306	114	267	14	21	31%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Nelson Velázquez 2023 · MLB	24	40→39	53→60	53→50	38	209/269/382	173	310	22	17	39%	7%	82	-0.0	211/276/393	182	273	25	11	31%	8%	87	+0.4	202/269/384	182	246	26	10	30%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	41→45	54→60	55→60	45	220/288/396	176	278	22	23	29%	8%	92	+0.7	219/298/369	150	319	17	29	34%	9%	89	+0.5	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Brenton Doyle 2024 · MLB	26	41→47	48→50	56→55	34	208/252/346	139	308	17	22	37%	5%	66	-1.1	229/279/373	144	299	17	24	28%	6%	82	+0.0	234/284/378	144	296	17	27	27%	6%	87	+0.3
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	44→45	55→70	47	217/293/337	119	284	11	29	27%	8%	80	-0.2	222/326/336	114	285	11	41	24%	11%	93	+0.8	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	37→34	50	51→50	45	191/282/348	157	275	18	12	35%	10%	79	-0.2	183/265/327	144	301	17	12	42%	8%	68	-1.0	158/244/297	139	268	18	12	45%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Kameron Misner 2023 · AA	25	44→43	47→50	55	46	208/295/344	136	321	14	24	37%	10%	82	+0.0	199/287/338	139	314	14	23	37%	10%	78	-0.3	199/277/338	139	286	15	27	34%	9%	72	-0.5
✕Josh Stowers 2022 · AA	25	38→44	50	54→55	41	199/265/347	149	282	18	23	35%	7%	72	-0.7	182/251/309	127	259	14	20	34%	7%	58	-1.7	158/233/271	113	224	12	21	34%	7%	40	-1.9
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	41→40	46→50	53→55	45	203/286/334	131	286	13	16	32%	8%	77	-0.3	201/278/310	109	271	10	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	161/249/251	90	216	7	20	27%	8%	42	-1.3
✕Cooper Bowman 2024 · AA	24	41→44	44→45	62→60	45	204/283/324	119	284	12	37	31%	8%	73	-0.6	210/281/325	115	288	10	33	29%	8%	72	-0.7	209/280/324	115	279	10	37	27%	8%	70	-0.6

Kyren Paris

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps