Nelson Velázquez

Nelson VelázquezOF Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION228 act + 152 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 10189vR 58

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .285 / .401

PA152

HR7

K%30

BB%9

BABIP256

ISO190

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

2913.4%

xwOBA

800.343

POWER50

Barrel%

8914.0

Avg EV

6590.1

Bat Spd

6973.4

EYE55

Chase%

7626.6%

SPEED50

Sprint

5227.6

Platoon Splits2024 · 230 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

160

—

wRC+

106

◀◀L

wOBA

324

266

◀◀L

ISO

133

179

▶▶R

BABIP

342

194

◀◀L

27.1%

26.2%

▶R

BB%

11.4%

6.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	125	115	16	3	1	5	9	56	1	5	2	139	208	313	521	174	204	45	7	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	125	109	26	5	2	8	15	39	1	5	2	239	336	541	877	303	290	31	12	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	South Bend Cubs	—	120	114	17	1	0	0	5	58	1	3	0	149	192	158	350	9	304	48	4	157	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	South Bend Cubs	—	120	112	21	1	0	0	7	43	1	3	0	188	242	196	438	9	304	36	6	208	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	3 teams	—	321	302	61	11	2	5	17	125	0	5	3	202	245	301	546	99	324	39	5	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	3 teams	—	321	295	82	17	4	6	24	90	0	5	3	278	332	424	756	146	380	28	7	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	3 teams	—	626	588	120	23	2	24	26	256	9	21	4	204	249	372	621	168	310	41	4	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	3 teams	—	626	560	158	32	3	31	54	188	9	21	4	282	355	516	871	234	370	30	9	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	3 teams	—	438	397	78	16	4	17	37	173	3	17	6	196	270	385	655	189	293	39	8	285	76	-12	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.0
2022	23	MLB	3 teams	—	438	388	87	18	4	21	46	148	3	17	6	224	311	454	765	229	300	34	11	337	116	+8	+1	-3	+2	+12	2.0
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	643	592	129	22	0	40	42	213	6	15	4	218	277	458	734	240	260	33	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	643	577	143	27	1	37	57	172	6	15	4	248	322	490	812	243	286	27	9	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	3 teams	—	536	478	97	21	2	16	47	142	5	11	5	203	281	356	637	153	248	26	9	281	73	-16	+0	-2	-6	+15	-0.9
2024	25	MLB	3 teams	—	536	458	102	23	2	18	67	122	5	11	5	223	328	400	728	177	259	23	12	325	107	+4	+0	-2	-6	+15	1.2
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	417	392	75	8	1	21	23	126	0	9	2	191	236	378	614	186	220	30	6	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	417	371	95	17	1	15	44	88	0	9	2	256	335	429	764	173	297	21	11	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	STL	—	228	202	41	7	0	10	21	74	3	4	0	203	288	386	674	183	258	32	9	294	83	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.0
YTD	27	AAA	STL	—	228	195	46	8	0	11	28	64	3	4	0	236	341	446	787	210	287	28	12	348	124	+6	+1	+0	-2	+6	1.1
ROS	27	AAA	STL	100%	152	137	29	5	0	7	13	45	1	3	0	212	285	401	686	190	265	30	9	311	96	-1	+1	-0	-2	+4	0.2
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	152	137	29	5	0	7	13	45	1	3	0	212	285	401	686	190	265	30	9	303	90	-2	+1	-0	-2	+4	0.1
FULL	27	AAA	STL	—	380	339	70	12	0	17	34	119	4	7	0	206	286	392	679	186	257	31	9	298	86	-6	+1	-0	-4	+11	0.2
TOT	27	AAA	STL	—	380	339	70	12	0	17	34	119	4	7	0	206	286	392	679	186	257	31	9	301	88	-5	+1	-0	-4	+11	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	STL	82%	392	351	77	13	1	18	34	115	4	6	1	219	296	416	712	197	266	29	9	311	96	-2	+1	-1	-4	+11	0.5
2028	29	MLB	STL	82%	390	349	76	13	1	17	34	115	4	6	1	218	295	407	701	189	265	29	9	309	94	-2	+1	-2	-4	+11	0.3
2027	28	MLB	STL	82%	321	287	63	11	1	14	28	94	3	5	1	220	296	411	707	192	266	29	9	303	90	-4	+1	-1	-3	+9	0.2
2028	29	MLB	STL	82%	320	286	62	10	1	14	28	95	3	5	1	217	293	406	699	189	265	30	9	301	89	-4	+1	-2	-3	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1408	1262	271	47	6	66	121	411	14	20	4	215	291	418	709	204	258	29	9	309	94	-9	+2	-11	-20	+40	0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	125	22	3	30	56	190	6	9	2	214	290	417	707	202	259	29	9	309	94	-4	+1	-5	-9	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	4160	3815	775	136	14	170	287	1424	34	101	28	203	265	380	645	177	270	34	7	282	74	-122	+9	-12	-38	+118	-4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	121	21	2	27	45	222	5	16	4	203	265	381	646	178	269	34	7	282	74	-19	+2	-2	-6	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	125	109	26	5	2	8	15	39	1	5	2	239	336	541	877	303	290	31	12	380	149	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2018	19	A	South Bend Cubs	—	120	112	21	1	0	0	7	43	1	3	0	188	242	196	438	9	304	36	6	208	18	-11	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2019	20	A	South Bend Cubs	—	285	262	75	16	4	4	21	77	0	5	3	286	339	424	763	137	390	27	7	337	116	+5	-0	—	—	+8	1.3
2019	20	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	—	21	19	6	1	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	316	381	684	1.065	368	333	24	10	455	206	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2019	20	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	15	14	1	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	71	133	71	205		167	53	7	107	-60	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	137	124	36	10	1	8	10	35	3	5	0	290	358	581	938	290	346	26	7	406	169	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2021	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	288	261	68	13	1	12	20	97	4	12	2	261	323	456	779	195	364	34	7	341	119	+6	+2	—	—	+8	1.6
2021	22	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	201	175	54	9	1	11	24	56	2	4	2	309	398	560	958	251	398	28	12	419	178	+18	+0	—	—	+6	2.4
2022	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	206	185	38	7	3	6	19	65	2	5	2	205	286	373	659	168	281	32	9	296	85	-4	+0	-3	+2	+6	0.1
2022	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	138	123	26	7	0	6	13	50	1	7	2	211	292	415	707	203	294	36	9	312	97	-0	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2022	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	94	80	23	4	1	9	14	33	0	5	2	287	394	700	1.094	412	368	35	15	462	211	+12	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	179	162	38	6	0	17	14	51	2	0	0	235	303	586	890	352	221	28	8	379	148	+10	+0	-3	-7	+5	0.5
2023	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	353	314	75	15	0	16	33	103	4	9	3	239	319	439	759	201	299	29	9	335	115	+6	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2023	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	111	101	30	6	1	4	10	18	0	6	1	297	360	495	855	198	329	16	9	377	146	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	230	205	41	8	1	8	19	61	3	2	0	200	278	366	643	166	237	27	8	286	77	-6	+0	-2	-6	+7	-0.7
2024	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	225	188	45	10	1	7	34	47	1	6	3	239	359	415	774	176	279	21	15	346	123	+6	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2024	25	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	81	65	16	5	0	3	14	14	1	3	2	246	388	462	849	215	265	17	17	375	145	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	210	188	44	5	1	11	21	49	0	5	1	234	311	447	758	213	256	23	10	333	113	+3	+1	—	—	+6	1.0
2025	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	—	207	183	51	12	0	4	23	39	0	4	1	279	359	410	769	131	336	19	11	345	122	+5	+0	—	—	+6	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	615	552	117	21	4	31	52	177	7	7	2	212	288	433	721	221	247	29	8	316	100	+0	+1	-8	-11	+17	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	9	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
	/162	664	27	9	242	297	444	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	1,457	70	19	218	290	426	-13	-23	2.8	2.8
	/162	664	32	9	218	290	426	-5.7	-10.4	1.3	pk7: 3
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Velázquez (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	50	55	206/286/392	186	257	17	7	31%	9%	88	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Joe Mather 2009 · MLB	27	43→46	58→60	51→50	47	237/303/443	206	256	27	10	21%	7%	110	+2.4	216/274/356	140	262	15	11	23%	7%	74	-0.1	204/259/308	104	260	10	8	25%	7%	51	-0.7
✕Eric Munson 2005 · MLB	27	41→43	60	47→40	51	228/303/439	211	244	29	5	22%	9%	108	+2.3	231/295/417	186	257	25	3	21%	7%	99	+1.7	226/290/397	171	249	22	1	20%	7%	89	+0.5
✕J.P. Arencibia 2013 · MLB	27	41→47	59→60	46→30	42	226/279/432	206	267	28	3	28%	6%	96	+1.5	206/245/388	182	252	26	2	30%	4%	71	-0.3	192/225/369	177	232	27	0	32%	3%	56	-1.0
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	42→43	59→55	51→55	46	231/296/433	202	277	28	14	28%	8%	104	+2.0	215/280/381	166	290	22	22	32%	8%	83	+0.6	212/291/397	185	265	26	25	30%	9%	90	+0.7
✕Tyler Moore 2014 · MLB	27	46→48	60→65	51→40	41	248/297/462	214	305	28	5	29%	6%	112	+2.6	222/283/375	153	283	18	3	27%	7%	82	+0.5	208/253/359	151	261	17	0	27%	5%	62	-0.3
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→41	58→60	48→50	44	214/292/419	206	279	27	9	33%	8%	98	+1.6	208/310/397	189	306	24	7	37%	11%	101	+1.8	194/309/387	193	292	25	6	39%	12%	95	+0.9
●Renato Núñez 2021 · MLB	27	46→51	56→60	44→30	46	243/308/431	189	288	25	3	26%	8%	108	+2.3	244/314/463	219	292	30	5	27%	7%	120	+3.1	232/307/469	237	267	35	1	28%	7%	116	+2.1
●Pedro Álvarez 2015 · MLB	28	44→46	60	47→45	48	239/310/448	209	288	29	6	28%	9%	114	+2.7	240/307/454	214	285	30	4	27%	9%	114	+2.7	234/296/450	216	273	31	2	27%	8%	102	+1.6
✕Bobby Dalbec 2022 · MLB	27	42	62→60	48→50	41	231/298/462	231	301	31	5	34%	7%	112	+2.6	217/287/410	193	310	27	11	37%	8%	95	+1.4	199/274/377	177	295	25	13	40%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	39→37	55	45→40	48	212/303/403	192	269	23	3	30%	10%	99	+1.7	199/289/371	172	258	19	6	29%	10%	85	+0.7	181/276/345	163	230	19	6	29%	11%	71	-0.2
●Trevor Plouffe 2013 · MLB	27	43→52	56→60	40→45	47	233/293/423	191	259	24	5	22%	7%	100	+1.7	248/312/416	168	288	19	3	20%	8%	105	+2.1	249/314/413	164	290	17	2	20%	8%	103	+1.9
✕Brad Eldred 2007 · MLB	27	41→40	65	46→45	38	233/284/477	244	292	34	8	33%	6%	111	+2.5	200/249/391	191	253	27	8	33%	4%	74	-0.1	203/256/418	215	253	31	9	34%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Jayson Nix 2011 · MLB	28	43→49	54→55	46→55	46	230/296/403	173	266	22	10	23%	7%	96	+1.5	216/281/350	134	275	14	13	26%	7%	76	+0.0	207/276/316	109	275	10	18	27%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Andrew Young 2022 · MLB	28	43→47	57→60	48→40	38	220/302/422	202	319	24	5	37%	6%	105	+2.1	208/285/370	162	322	20	7	39%	8%	83	+0.6	171/257/312	142	262	19	4	40%	8%	53	-0.9
✕Jason Vosler 2022 · MLB	28	44→43	55	49→40	49	233/303/420	187	265	23	5	23%	8%	103	+1.9	216/278/387	171	274	22	6	29%	7%	84	+0.6	206/267/372	166	264	22	4	30%	7%	72	-0.2
●Scott Hairston 2007 · MLB	27	47→51	56→60	50	46	250/309/443	193	289	25	6	23%	7%	111	+2.5	249/309/449	200	283	24	7	21%	7%	113	+2.6	250/308/455	205	279	24	9	20%	7%	112	+1.6
✕Dilson Herrera 2021 · MLB	27	39→49	55→50	47→50	41	213/274/394	181	276	23	11	32%	7%	85	+0.7	203/260/354	151	298	19	8	37%	6%	68	-0.5	146/205/283	138	208	20	0	41%	6%	25	-1.1
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	56→55	50→55	44	247/306/434	187	286	25	11	24%	6%	108	+2.3	239/289/393	154	287	17	11	23%	5%	90	+1.0	233/279/375	142	278	15	11	22%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Justin Leone 2005 · MLB	28	45→41	58→50	50→55	47	241/317/443	202	291	26	9	27%	8%	115	+2.8	213/290/351	138	284	15	10	29%	9%	79	+0.3	202/286/351	149	254	18	16	27%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2022 · AAA	27	37→33	56→55	48→50	41	210/275/394	185	256	26	7	30%	6%	85	+0.7	229/303/422	193	298	25	11	31%	8%	104	+2.0	218/311/435	216	279	30	11	32%	10%	107	+0.8