Nelson Velázquez

Nelson VelázquezOF Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 190 lbs AAA HR -7%K -4% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.2 · 2027

wRC+†vL 8779vR 46

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .288 / .414

PA350

HR16

SB6

K%28

BB%8

xwOBA.307

Barrel%8.8%

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

50→50

SPD

50→50

EYE

50↗55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

Barrel%

548.8

xwOBA

490.307

Avg EV

3888.2

Whiff%

140.150

Chase%

630.291

Speed

5027.5

Bat Spd

6973.4

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$-0.8M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Cubs	125	115	16	3	1	5	9	56	1	5	2	.139	.208	.313	.521	.174	.204	45	7	.233	37	-9	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.7
2018	19	A	South Bend Cubs	120	114	18	1	0	0	5	54	1	3	0	.158	.200	.167	.367	.009	.300	45	4	.163	-17	-16	+1	+0	-1	+3	-1.3
2019	20	A	3 teams	321	302	65	12	2	5	17	113	0	5	3	.215	.257	.318	.575	.103	.324	35	5	.250	50	-18	-0	+0	-3	+9	-1.3
2021	22	A+	3 teams	626	589	120	24	2	24	25	260	9	21	4	.204	.247	.374	.621	.170	.313	42	4	.268	63	-26	+3	+0	-7	+18	-1.3
2022	23	MLB	3 teams	438	397	76	16	3	18	37	170	3	17	6	.191	.265	.383	.648	.191	.276	39	8	.286	77	-11	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.1
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	643	591	122	21	0	36	43	211	6	15	4	.206	.267	.425	.692	.218	.248	33	7	.301	88	-8	+1	-3	-7	+18	0.1
2024	25	MLB	3 teams	536	477	95	19	2	16	48	140	5	11	5	.199	.279	.348	.627	.149	.242	26	9	.277	70	-18	+0	-2	-6	+15	-1.1
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	417	389	74	8	1	19	26	121	0	9	2	.190	.241	.362	.603	.172	.220	29	6	.263	59	-19	+1	+0	-4	+12	-1.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	68	62	11	1	0	2	6	25	0	1	0	.177	.250	.290	.540	.113	.257	37	9	.221	27	-6	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
ROS	27	MLB	STL	282	255	56	9	1	13	23	84	2	5	1	.220	.289	.416	.705	.196	.263	30	8	.304	91	-3	+1	-2	-3	+8	0.1
TOT	27	MLB	STL	350	317	67	10	1	15	29	109	2	6	1	.211	.282	.391	.673	.180	.268	31	8	.288	79	-8	+1	-2	-4	+10	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB 20%	STL	396	355	77	12	1	18	35	97	3	6	1	.217	.293	.408	.701	.192	.245	24	9	.308	94	-3	+1	-4	-4	+11	0.1
2028	29	MLB 33%	STL	393	353	76	12	1	17	35	98	2	5	1	.215	.290	.399	.689	.184	.244	25	9	.306	92	-3	+1	-4	-4	+11	-0.0
2029	30	MLB 43%	STL	390	350	75	12	1	17	35	98	2	4	1	.214	.289	.400	.689	.186	.242	25	9	.303	90	-4	+0	-5	-4	+11	-0.2
2030	31	MLB 52%	STL	375	337	71	11	1	16	33	96	2	2	0	.211	.285	.392	.677	.181	.240	26	9	.299	87	-6	+0	-6	-4	+11	-0.4
2031	32	MLB 64%	STL	356	320	66	10	1	15	31	93	2	1	0	.206	.280	.384	.665	.178	.239	26	9	.294	83	-7	+0	-6	-4	+10	-0.6
2032	33	MLB 73%	STL	326	292	60	9	1	13	29	87	2	0	0	.205	.282	.377	.658	.171	.237	27	9	.288	79	-8	+0	-7	-3	+9	-0.9
2033	34	MLB 91%	STL	282	254	51	8	1	11	25	78	1	0	0	.201	.275	.370	.645	.169	.234	28	9	.282	74	-8	+0	-7	-3	+8	-1.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6026	5490	1118	187	19	243	456	1856	41	109	30	.204	.270	.377	.647	.174	.256	31	8	.284	75	-168	+10	-48	-58	+171	-9.6
/ 162G	—			650	592	120	20	2	26	49	200	4	12	3	.203	.268	.375	.643	.172	.255	31	8	.284	75	-18	+1	-5	-6	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	AZL Cubs	125	109	26	5	2	8	15	39	1	5	2	.239	.336	.541	.877	.303	.290	31	12	.380	149	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2018	19	A	South Bend Cubs	120	112	21	1	0	0	7	43	1	3	0	.188	.242	.196	.438	.009	.304	36	6	.208	18	-11	+1	—	—	+3	-0.7
2019	20	A	South Bend Cubs	285	262	75	16	4	4	21	77	0	5	3	.286	.339	.424	.763	.137	.390	27	7	.337	116	+5	-0	—	—	+8	1.3
2019	20	ROK	AZL Cubs 2	21	19	6	1	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	.316	.381	.684	1.065	.368	.333	24	10	.455	206	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2019	20	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	15	14	1	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	.071	.133	.071	.205	.000	.167	53	7	.107	-60	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	137	124	36	10	1	8	10	35	3	5	0	.290	.358	.581	.938	.290	.346	26	7	.406	169	+11	+1	—	—	+4	1.6
2021	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	288	261	68	13	1	12	20	97	4	12	2	.261	.323	.456	.779	.195	.364	34	7	.341	119	+6	+2	—	—	+8	1.6
2021	22	INTL	Puerto Rico	201	175	54	9	1	11	24	56	2	4	2	.309	.398	.560	.958	.251	.398	28	12	.419	178	+18	+0	—	—	+6	2.4
2022	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	206	185	38	7	3	6	19	65	2	5	2	.205	.286	.373	.659	.168	.281	32	9	.296	85	-4	+0	-3	+2	+6	0.1
2022	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	138	123	26	7	0	6	13	50	1	7	2	.211	.292	.415	.707	.203	.294	36	9	.312	97	-0	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2022	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	94	80	23	4	1	9	14	33	0	5	2	.287	.394	.700	1.094	.412	.368	35	15	.462	211	+12	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2023	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	179	162	38	6	0	17	14	51	2	0	0	.235	.303	.586	.890	.352	.221	28	8	.379	148	+10	+0	-3	-7	+5	0.5
2023	24	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	353	314	75	15	0	16	33	103	4	9	3	.239	.319	.439	.759	.201	.299	29	9	.335	115	+6	+1	—	—	+10	1.7
2023	24	INTL	Puerto Rico	111	101	30	6	1	4	10	18	0	6	1	.297	.360	.495	.855	.198	.329	16	9	.377	146	+6	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2024	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	230	205	41	8	1	8	19	61	3	2	0	.200	.278	.366	.643	.166	.237	27	8	.286	77	-6	+0	-2	-6	+7	-0.7
2024	25	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	225	188	45	10	1	7	34	47	1	6	3	.239	.359	.415	.774	.176	.279	21	15	.346	123	+6	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2024	25	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	81	65	16	5	0	3	14	14	1	3	2	.246	.388	.462	.849	.215	.265	17	17	.375	145	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.6
2025	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	210	188	44	5	1	11	21	49	0	5	1	.234	.311	.447	.758	.213	.256	23	10	.333	113	+3	+1	—	—	+6	1.0
2025	26	INTL	Puerto Rico	207	183	51	12	0	4	23	39	0	4	1	.279	.359	.410	.769	.131	.336	19	11	.345	122	+5	+0	—	—	+6	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			615	552	117	21	4	31	52	177	7	7	2	.212	.288	.433	.721	.221	.247	29	8	.316	100	+0	+1	-8	-11	+17	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelson Velázquez (OGILVIE)	27	40	50	50	55	.218/.288/.414	.197	.262	16	6	28%	8%	97	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Weston Wilson 2022 · AAA	27	40→43	55	51→55	45	.219/.283/.402	.182	.267	25	13	28%	8%	90	+1.0	.216/.279/.378	.162	.291	21	21	32%	8%	82	+0.5	.215/.294/.402	.188	.269	26	25	30%	10%	92	+0.8
✕Jabari Blash 2016 · AAA	27	39→40	59→60	47→50	44	.214/.293/.420	.206	.279	27	10	34%	8%	99	+1.7	.209/.309/.401	.192	.302	24	7	36%	11%	102	+1.8	.197/.311/.392	.195	.294	26	6	38%	12%	97	+1.0
✕Joe Mather 2009 · MLB	27	43→45	57→60	51→50	46	.234/.298/.432	.199	.257	26	9	21%	7%	105	+2.1	.216/.275/.363	.147	.257	16	11	23%	6%	76	+0.1	.206/.260/.310	.104	.261	10	8	24%	7%	52	-0.7
✕Aristides Aquino 2021 · MLB	27	40	64→65	49→50	40	.230/.284/.462	.231	.272	35	10	30%	6%	107	+2.2	.215/.289/.413	.198	.290	27	9	34%	9%	96	+1.5	.193/.274/.380	.187	.267	25	6	36%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Bobby Dalbec 2022 · MLB	27	42→44	62→60	46→50	42	.230/.300/.457	.227	.299	31	5	34%	8%	112	+2.6	.219/.289/.416	.197	.312	27	10	37%	8%	97	+1.5	.200/.275/.384	.184	.313	25	13	42%	8%	78	+0.2
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	44	54→55	52→50	48	.228/.308/.419	.191	.299	21	13	30%	10%	105	+2.1	.219/.307/.387	.168	.303	19	15	32%	10%	96	+1.5	.188/.286/.329	.140	.277	15	16	35%	11%	69	-0.2
✕David Villar 2023 · MLB	26	42	59→60	44→40	45	.227/.314/.440	.213	.296	28	4	32%	9%	114	+2.7	.213/.295/.379	.166	.285	21	5	31%	9%	90	+1.0	.201/.283/.336	.135	.271	17	4	31%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Casper Wells 2012 · MLB	27	43→46	56→60	44→50	42	.226/.292/.422	.197	.290	24	8	30%	7%	99	+1.7	.222/.294/.388	.166	.284	18	7	27%	8%	91	+1.1	.211/.292/.373	.161	.265	16	5	26%	9%	84	+0.3
✕Johan Mieses 2022 · AAA	27	37→32	55	48→50	41	.206/.272/.384	.178	.253	25	7	30%	6%	82	+0.5	.228/.302/.420	.192	.300	25	10	31%	8%	103	+1.9	.222/.313/.433	.210	.294	28	11	32%	10%	107	+0.8
✕Mike Wilson 2011 · AAA	28	40→50	56→60	50	45	.217/.293/.402	.186	.279	25	12	32%	8%	95	+1.4	.230/.299/.389	.159	.307	19	8	30%	8%	93	+1.3	.229/.297/.377	.148	.312	17	4	31%	8%	86	+0.4
✕Jaylin Davis 2022 · MLB	28	42→47	57→50	47→45	41	.222/.291/.413	.191	.301	26	10	34%	7%	97	+1.5	.198/.274/.336	.138	.299	16	7	37%	8%	69	-0.4	.182/.266/.311	.129	.275	15	4	37%	9%	57	-0.8
✕Valentino Pascucci 2008 · AAA	29	43→45	58→55	51→45	45	.231/.309/.434	.203	.290	27	10	30%	8%	110	+2.4	.221/.306/.396	.175	.289	23	6	30%	10%	98	+1.6	.209/.300/.379	.170	.272	22	3	31%	11%	89	+0.7
✕Tyler Moore 2014 · MLB	27	45→46	59→65	51→40	41	.242/.289/.452	.210	.298	27	5	29%	6%	106	+2.2	.222/.283/.378	.156	.281	18	3	27%	7%	84	+0.6	.204/.267/.340	.136	.256	16	0	27%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Stuart Fairchild 2023 · MLB	27	44→43	53→50	50→55	42	.227/.302/.402	.174	.300	21	13	30%	7%	98	+1.6	.225/.303/.374	.149	.296	16	19	28%	8%	92	+1.2	.217/.302/.357	.140	.282	15	25	27%	8%	83	+0.3
✕Eric Munson 2005 · MLB	27	41→43	59→60	47→40	51	.229/.303/.436	.207	.244	29	5	21%	9%	108	+2.3	.232/.295/.421	.189	.258	25	3	21%	7%	101	+1.8	.226/.290/.397	.171	.249	22	1	20%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Jayson Nix 2011 · MLB	28	42→49	54→55	47→55	46	.224/.291/.399	.174	.259	23	11	24%	7%	93	+1.3	.215/.281/.358	.143	.270	16	13	26%	7%	78	+0.2	.210/.278/.325	.115	.278	10	18	27%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→52	55	51→55	45	.249/.306/.431	.182	.287	23	12	23%	6%	108	+2.3	.241/.292/.395	.154	.290	17	11	23%	5%	92	+1.2	.235/.281/.376	.141	.282	14	11	22%	5%	79	+0.1
✕David Bote 2021 · MLB	28	45→48	54→55	47→45	50	.232/.318/.410	.178	.292	22	9	28%	10%	107	+2.2	.218/.294/.367	.149	.276	17	7	26%	8%	85	+0.7	.227/.294/.384	.157	.293	17	8	27%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Shelley Duncan 2008 · MLB	28	40→43	59→60	43→45	44	.227/.284/.432	.205	.261	29	4	26%	7%	98	+1.6	.227/.296/.424	.197	.262	26	5	24%	8%	102	+1.8	.224/.299/.412	.188	.256	25	2	23%	8%	96	+1.1
✕Dilson Herrera 2021 · MLB	27	40→50	54→50	46→50	40	.215/.275/.389	.173	.283	22	10	32%	6%	83	+0.6	.206/.263/.364	.158	.297	20	8	36%	6%	72	-0.2	.156/.216/.304	.148	.218	22	0	40%	6%	34	-0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)