Jaylin Davis
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 | AAASF | 186 | .230/.322/.503 | 11 | 3 | 73 | — | .181/.257/.386 | |
| 2022 | 28 | AAABOS | 393 | .215/.317/.356 | 9 | 4 | 45 | — | .169/.246/.265 | |
| 2022 | 28 | MLBBOS | 27 | .333/.407/.375 | 0 | 0 | 124 | -0.3 | ||
| 2023 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 379 | .211/.337/.429 | 17 | 2 | 71 | — | .173/.270/.317 | |
| 2024 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 218 | 192 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 64 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 339 | 469 | 808 | 219 | 328 | 29 | 10 | 358 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | — | 52 | 47 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 277 | 346 | 745 | 1.091 | 468 | 353 | 44 | 8 | 460 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 233 | 215 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 98 | 333 | 30 | 5 | 281 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 272 | 251 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 77 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 267 | 319 | 486 | 805 | 219 | 335 | 28 | 6 | 350 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 267 | 240 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 69 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 275 | 343 | 425 | 768 | 150 | 359 | 26 | 8 | 341 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 227 | 199 | 54 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 271 | 356 | 397 | 753 | 126 | 355 | 25 | 10 | 338 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 61 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 311 | 281 | 592 | 18 | 417 | 34 | 3 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 167 | 255 | 238 | 493 | 71 | 200 | 23 | 6 | 236 | 49 | -3 | -1 | -3 | -6 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 290 | 256 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 25 | 29 | 74 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 332 | 410 | 699 | 1.110 | 367 | 382 | 26 | 10 | 474 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 251 | 212 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 36 | 64 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 274 | 384 | 458 | 842 | 184 | 345 | 25 | 14 | 375 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 186 | 161 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 322 | 503 | 826 | 273 | 277 | 32 | 9 | 355 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 27 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 407 | 375 | 782 | 42 | 615 | 41 | 11 | 360 | 124 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 393 | 340 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 121 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 215 | 317 | 356 | 673 | 141 | 302 | 31 | 12 | 306 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 309 | 259 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 91 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 220 | 342 | 436 | 778 | 216 | 280 | 29 | 13 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 70 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 314 | 397 | 711 | 224 | 214 | 37 | 17 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 74 | 66 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 227 | 311 | 288 | 599 | 61 | 326 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -2 | -1 | -3 | -11 | +2 | -1.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 218 | 199 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 87 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 181 | 252 | 312 | 564 | 131 | 285 | 40 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | ROK MLE | Elizabethton Twins | — | 52 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 143 | 192 | 388 | 580 | 245 | 260 | 63 | 4 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 233 | 220 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 105 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 208 | 227 | 435 | 59 | 304 | 45 | 3 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 272 | 255 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 196 | 241 | 341 | 582 | 145 | 294 | 39 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 267 | 248 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 88 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 230 | 279 | 359 | 638 | 129 | 321 | 33 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Fort Myers Miracle | — | 227 | 206 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 218 | 284 | 316 | 600 | 97 | 331 | 35 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 47 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 167 | 255 | 238 | 493 | 71 | 200 | 23 | 6 | 241 | 49 | -3 | -1 | -3 | -6 | +1 | -1.2 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 290 | 265 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 20 | 98 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 317 | 513 | 830 | 260 | 328 | 34 | 7 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 251 | 224 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 76 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 228 | 308 | 366 | 674 | 138 | 300 | 30 | 10 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 186 | 166 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 257 | 386 | 642 | 205 | 234 | 37 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 27 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 407 | 375 | 782 | 42 | 615 | 41 | 11 | 351 | 124 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 393 | 355 | 60 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 143 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 169 | 246 | 265 | 510 | 96 | 260 | 36 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 309 | 271 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 114 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 173 | 270 | 317 | 588 | 144 | 248 | 37 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 247 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 120 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 174 | 244 | 332 | 576 | 158 | 288 | 44 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 270 | 239 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 25 | 87 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 255 | 341 | 523 | 864 | 268 | 331 | 32 | 9 | 377 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 475 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 212 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 187 | 230 | 303 | 533 | 116 | 305 | 42 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 466 | 118 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 147 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 253 | 305 | 416 | 722 | 163 | 334 | 29 | 6 | 318 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 555 | 509 | 114 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 188 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 224 | 283 | 332 | 615 | 108 | 333 | 34 | 6 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 555 | 496 | 135 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 147 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 272 | 345 | 397 | 742 | 125 | 364 | 26 | 8 | 333 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 588 | 531 | 125 | 20 | 1 | 27 | 47 | 185 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 235 | 308 | 429 | 738 | 194 | 306 | 31 | 8 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 588 | 510 | 150 | 26 | 1 | 36 | 68 | 149 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 294 | 387 | 561 | 947 | 267 | 350 | 25 | 12 | 413 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 186 | 166 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 181 | 257 | 386 | 642 | 205 | 237 | 37 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 186 | 161 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 322 | 503 | 826 | 273 | 277 | 32 | 9 | 355 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 420 | 379 | 68 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 154 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 179 | 256 | 272 | 528 | 92 | 281 | 37 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 420 | 364 | 81 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 49 | 132 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 223 | 323 | 357 | 680 | 135 | 320 | 31 | 12 | 309 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 379 | 335 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 139 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 167 | 260 | 307 | 567 | 140 | 245 | 37 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 379 | 317 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 17 | 53 | 117 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 211 | 337 | 429 | 766 | 218 | 270 | 31 | 14 | 342 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 270 | 245 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 120 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 176 | 244 | 335 | 579 | 159 | 280 | 44 | 6 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 474 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 212 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 188 | 230 | 304 | 533 | 116 | 299 | 42 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 555 | 508 | 114 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 188 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 224 | 283 | 333 | 616 | 108 | 326 | 34 | 6 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 588 | 527 | 125 | 20 | 1 | 27 | 47 | 185 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 237 | 308 | 433 | 741 | 195 | 306 | 31 | 8 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 186 | 167 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 68 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 180 | 257 | 383 | 640 | 204 | 234 | 37 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 420 | 378 | 68 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 154 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 180 | 256 | 272 | 528 | 93 | 283 | 37 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 379 | 334 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 139 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 168 | 260 | 308 | 568 | 141 | 248 | 37 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 74 | 66 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 227 | 311 | 288 | 599 | 61 | 326 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 66 | -2 | -1 | -3 | -11 | +2 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 132 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 193 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 228 | 312 | 290 | 602 | 62 | 325 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 66 | -18 | -5 | -22 | -95 | +14 | -13.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2903 | 2642 | 525 | 98 | 15 | 80 | 197 | 1066 | 48 | 45 | 21 | 199 | 267 | 338 | 605 | 139 | 295 | 37 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -2 | -1 | -3 | -11 | +2 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 117 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 239 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 198 | 266 | 336 | 602 | 139 | 293 | 37 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -18 | -5 | -22 | -95 | +14 | -13.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 309 PAwOBA .340 → .261 (−79)K% 29.4% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.45% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.27% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.26% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 15.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.74% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.19% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×0.982 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.74% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 5.30% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .340 → .261; ISO .216 → .153; BABIP .280 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 393 PAwOBA .299 → .235 (−64)K% 30.8% → 36.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.79% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.45% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.179 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 4.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×0.992 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.11% | ÷0.939 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.04% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .299 → .235; ISO .141 → .104; BABIP .302 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 186 PAwOBA .351 → .276 (−75)K% 31.7% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.72% | ÷1.034 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.14% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×1.003 | 14.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×1.003 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.003 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.78% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 7.61% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .351 → .276; ISO .273 → .204; BABIP .277 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 290 PAwOBA .458 → .353 (−106)K% 25.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.52% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.31% | ÷0.980 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.72% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.982 | ×0.900 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.34% | ÷0.981 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 7.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.008 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×1.033 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.74% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 10.78% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 102, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .458 → .353; ISO .367 → .266; BABIP .382 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 251 PAwOBA .367 → .296 (−72)K% 25.5% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.50% | ÷1.027 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.34% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.35% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 24.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.08% | ÷1.160 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .367 → .296; ISO .184 → .146; BABIP .345 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 267 PAwOBA .335 → .273 (−62)K% 25.8% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.84% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷1.078 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.73% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 22.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.19% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.17% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.91% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 114, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .335 → .273; ISO .150 → .128; BABIP .359 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 227 PAwOBA .328 → .268 (−60)K% 25.1% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.11% | ÷1.011 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.46% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 25.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.036 | ×0.960 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷1.059 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 107, 3B 90, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .328 → .268; ISO .126 → .098; BABIP .355 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 272 PAwOBA .342 → .254 (−88)K% 28.3% → 39.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.31% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.925 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 4.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.990 | 20.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.086 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.990 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.031 | ×0.990 | 1.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 5.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 117, 3B 102, K 95, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .342 → .254; ISO .219 → .154; BABIP .335 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .