Johan Mieses
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AAA/AASTL | 437 | .233/.320/.440 | 22 | 6 | 63 | — | .189/.262/.338 |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA/AABOS | 325 | .233/.326/.484 | 19 | 3 | 71 | — | .184/.258/.354 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAABOS | 230 | .271/.389/.536 | 12 | 5 | 96 | — | .219/.314/.408 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers | — | 62 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 222 | 323 | 259 | 582 | 37 | 293 | 21 | 11 | 278 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK | DSL Dodgers | — | 230 | 204 | 61 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 40 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 299 | 373 | 505 | 878 | 206 | 350 | 17 | 9 | 382 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 214 | 196 | 48 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 299 | 439 | 737 | 194 | 316 | 27 | 6 | 320 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A | Great Lakes Loons | — | 181 | 166 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 277 | 326 | 440 | 766 | 163 | 308 | 17 | 6 | 334 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 514 | 461 | 114 | 31 | 3 | 28 | 36 | 147 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 247 | 316 | 510 | 826 | 262 | 297 | 29 | 7 | 356 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 329 | 294 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 116 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 247 | 347 | 594 | 187 | 190 | 35 | 8 | 267 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 129 | 116 | 41 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 353 | 414 | 707 | 1.121 | 353 | 465 | 29 | 8 | 476 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 233 | 219 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 250 | 374 | 624 | 169 | 243 | 27 | 5 | 276 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 270 | 243 | 61 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 251 | 316 | 424 | 740 | 173 | 277 | 20 | 7 | 324 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 70 | 62 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 339 | 414 | 677 | 1.092 | 339 | 333 | 16 | 11 | 468 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 367 | 324 | 69 | 11 | 0 | 16 | 30 | 86 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 213 | 301 | 395 | 696 | 182 | 238 | 23 | 8 | 312 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 199 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 64 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 308 | 387 | 695 | 176 | 262 | 28 | 10 | 310 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 95 | 84 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 368 | 714 | 1.083 | 429 | 241 | 20 | 9 | 458 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 192 | 52 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 63 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 271 | 389 | 536 | 925 | 266 | 339 | 27 | 14 | 404 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers | — | 62 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 143 | 226 | 161 | 387 | 18 | 197 | 26 | 8 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers | — | 230 | 211 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 175 | 237 | 280 | 516 | 104 | 215 | 21 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 214 | 199 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 79 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 186 | 232 | 347 | 579 | 161 | 264 | 37 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 181 | 169 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 243 | 281 | 391 | 671 | 148 | 275 | 23 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 514 | 474 | 88 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 24 | 201 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 186 | 242 | 390 | 632 | 205 | 249 | 39 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 329 | 305 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 148 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 171 | 213 | 384 | 105 | 165 | 45 | 5 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 129 | 120 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 297 | 492 | 789 | 242 | 372 | 40 | 5 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 233 | 222 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 198 | 279 | 478 | 117 | 210 | 32 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 270 | 250 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 73 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 259 | 376 | 635 | 164 | 243 | 27 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 70 | 64 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 297 | 357 | 578 | 935 | 281 | 304 | 20 | 9 | 382 | 145 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 367 | 332 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 106 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 169 | 244 | 292 | 536 | 123 | 204 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 206 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 165 | 242 | 267 | 509 | 102 | 227 | 33 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 95 | 87 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 295 | 563 | 858 | 333 | 207 | 24 | 6 | 369 | 136 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 201 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 75 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 314 | 408 | 722 | 189 | 286 | 33 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers | — | 62 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 143 | 226 | 161 | 387 | 18 | 200 | 26 | 8 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Dodgers | — | 62 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 222 | 323 | 259 | 582 | 37 | 293 | 21 | 11 | 278 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers | — | 230 | 211 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 175 | 237 | 280 | 516 | 104 | 217 | 21 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Dodgers | — | 230 | 204 | 61 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 40 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 299 | 373 | 505 | 878 | 206 | 350 | 17 | 9 | 382 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 368 | 77 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 119 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 209 | 252 | 356 | 608 | 147 | 277 | 30 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 362 | 94 | 28 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 88 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 260 | 311 | 439 | 750 | 180 | 312 | 22 | 6 | 327 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 514 | 474 | 88 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 24 | 201 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 186 | 242 | 390 | 632 | 205 | 256 | 39 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 514 | 461 | 114 | 31 | 3 | 28 | 36 | 147 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 247 | 316 | 510 | 826 | 262 | 297 | 29 | 7 | 356 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 458 | 425 | 64 | 17 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 200 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 151 | 208 | 296 | 505 | 146 | 231 | 44 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 458 | 410 | 88 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 37 | 154 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 294 | 449 | 743 | 234 | 274 | 34 | 8 | 326 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 472 | 89 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 148 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 231 | 333 | 564 | 144 | 234 | 29 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 503 | 462 | 106 | 16 | 3 | 19 | 30 | 115 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 229 | 285 | 400 | 686 | 171 | 262 | 23 | 6 | 302 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 396 | 74 | 9 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 121 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 336 | 596 | 149 | 223 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 437 | 386 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 22 | 38 | 97 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 233 | 320 | 440 | 760 | 207 | 254 | 22 | 9 | 337 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 293 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 98 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 191 | 264 | 375 | 639 | 184 | 228 | 30 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 325 | 283 | 66 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 31 | 83 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 326 | 484 | 810 | 251 | 255 | 26 | 10 | 353 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 201 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 75 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 219 | 314 | 408 | 722 | 189 | 297 | 33 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 192 | 52 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 63 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 271 | 389 | 536 | 925 | 266 | 339 | 27 | 14 | 404 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers | — | 62 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 143 | 226 | 161 | 387 | 18 | 197 | 26 | 8 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Dodgers | — | 230 | 211 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 175 | 237 | 280 | 516 | 104 | 215 | 21 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 371 | 77 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 119 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 208 | 252 | 353 | 605 | 146 | 269 | 30 | 5 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 514 | 474 | 88 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 24 | 201 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 186 | 242 | 390 | 632 | 205 | 249 | 39 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 458 | 424 | 64 | 17 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 200 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 151 | 208 | 297 | 506 | 146 | 223 | 44 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 503 | 472 | 89 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 148 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 231 | 333 | 564 | 144 | 228 | 29 | 4 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 437 | 395 | 74 | 9 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 121 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 337 | 596 | 149 | 220 | 28 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 293 | 56 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 98 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 191 | 264 | 375 | 639 | 184 | 221 | 30 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 230 | 200 | 44 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 75 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 220 | 314 | 410 | 724 | 190 | 286 | 33 | 10 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3154 | 2896 | 537 | 112 | 14 | 105 | 175 | 1027 | 57 | 62 | 20 | 185 | 246 | 343 | 588 | 157 | 242 | 33 | 6 | 254 | 58 | -156 | +4 | +0 | +11 | +68 | -7.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 111 | 23 | 3 | 22 | 36 | 212 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 186 | 247 | 345 | 592 | 159 | 243 | 33 | 6 | 254 | 58 | -32 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 230 PAwOBA .395 → .310 (−85)K% 27.4% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.39% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.91% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.38% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.003 | 18.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.63% | ÷1.179 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.003 | 8.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.30% | ÷0.939 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .395 → .310; ISO .266 → .196; BABIP .339 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 230 PAwOBA .306 → .233 (−73)K% 27.8% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.83% | ÷1.021 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.78% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 16.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.318 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.20% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .233; ISO .176 → .109; BABIP .262 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 95 PAwOBA .445 → .369 (−76)K% 20.0% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.47% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.047 | ×0.940 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 13.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.064 | ×0.870 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 3.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 14.49% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 109, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 105, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .445 → .369; ISO .429 → .366; BABIP .241 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 367 PAwOBA .304 → .237 (−67)K% 23.4% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.43% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.17% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 16.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.070 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.108 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.91% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 122, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .304 → .237; ISO .182 → .129; BABIP .238 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 70 PAwOBA .454 → .382 (−72)K% 15.7% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.71% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷1.035 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.49% | ÷1.014 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.048 | 23.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.917 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 1.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.048 | 1.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 9.79% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 103, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .454 → .382; ISO .339 → .280; BABIP .333 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 270 PAwOBA .318 → .274 (−44)K% 19.6% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.63% | ÷1.036 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.30% | ÷1.045 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.58% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷0.942 | ×0.960 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.852 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 5.43% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 107, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .318 → .274; ISO .173 → .166; BABIP .277 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AASpringfield Cardinals · 233 PAwOBA .268 → .204 (−64)K% 26.6% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.61% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.72% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 3.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.20% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.027 | 15.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.973 | ×0.840 | ×0.953 | ×1.027 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.953 | ×1.027 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.73% | ÷1.215 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.88% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .268 → .204; ISO .169 → .117; BABIP .243 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATulsa Drillers · 329 PAwOBA .257 → .178 (−79)K% 35.3% → 45.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.26% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.29% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.48% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 12.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 3.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.958 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.99% | ÷1.295 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 5.79% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 91, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .257 → .178; ISO .187 → .111; BABIP .190 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).