Drew Ellis — OGILVIE

Drew Ellis3B Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA BB -3% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.5 · 2026

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .300 / .377

PA250

HR9

K%29

BB%10

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

56↘55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	2 teams	562	513	100	27	1	15	41	143	6	2	6	.195	.263	.339	.602	.144	.238	25	7	.261	58	-27	-2	+0	+2	+16	-1.1
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	451	399	77	18	0	14	43	138	3	0	3	.193	.276	.343	.620	.150	.250	31	10	.271	66	-18	-1	+0	+2	+13	-0.4
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	441	377	75	22	2	17	44	140	14	1	0	.199	.306	.403	.709	.204	.257	32	10	.305	92	-4	+0	-3	+2	+12	0.7
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	485	425	74	24	2	13	51	156	5	6	3	.174	.270	.332	.602	.158	.235	32	11	.267	63	-20	+0	-1	+2	+14	-0.6
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	371	326	60	13	0	15	40	102	4	3	1	.184	.281	.362	.643	.178	.214	27	11	.282	74	-11	+0	-0	+1	+11	0.1
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	134	117	21	1	1	4	15	33	2	2	0	.179	.284	.308	.591	.128	.212	25	11	.275	69	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.0
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	247	218	33	5	0	8	24	83	4	0	0	.151	.248	.284	.532	.133	.195	34	10	.243	44	-16	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	SF	250	220	47	8	1	9	25	73	3	2	1	.214	.302	.382	.684	.168	.266	29	10	.306	92	-2	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	SF	279	245	52	9	1	10	28	81	4	1	0	.212	.303	.380	.683	.167	.267	29	10	.304	91	-3	+0	-4	+1	+8	0.3
2028	32	MLB 33%	SF	260	229	48	8	1	9	26	75	3	0	0	.210	.298	.371	.670	.162	.268	29	10	.301	88	-3	+0	-4	+1	+7	0.1
2029	33	MLB 43%	SF	230	203	43	7	1	8	22	67	3	0	0	.212	.298	.374	.673	.163	.267	29	10	.296	85	-4	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.1
2030	34	MLB 52%	SF	188	166	34	6	0	6	18	56	2	0	0	.205	.290	.349	.640	.145	.266	30	10	.290	80	-4	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3898	3438	664	148	10	128	377	1147	53	17	14	.193	.283	.354	.637	.161	.245	29	10	.281	74	-117	-2	-23	+14	+110	-1.8
/ 162G	—			650	573	111	25	2	21	63	191	9	3	2	.194	.284	.354	.638	.161	.247	29	10	.281	74	-19	-0	-4	+2	+18	-0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	502	443	109	34	1	15	52	98	5	2	6	.246	.332	.429	.761	.183	.283	20	10	.338	117	+10	-2	—	—	+14	2.2
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	60	52	12	4	0	2	7	16	1	0	0	.231	.333	.423	.756	.192	.294	27	12	.339	118	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	.235	.348	.406	.755	.172	.287	24	14	.337	116	+8	-1	—	—	+13	2.0
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	83	69	9	2	0	1	10	27	4	0	0	.130	.277	.203	.480	.072	.195	33	12	.241	43	-5	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.5
2021	25	AAA	Reno Aces	358	296	87	29	3	20	46	87	10	1	0	.294	.406	.615	1.021	.321	.344	24	13	.432	189	+36	+0	—	—	+10	4.7
2022	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	.188	.235	.250	.485	.062	.333	41	6	.223	29	-1	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	468	385	87	27	2	19	74	117	5	6	3	.226	.358	.455	.812	.229	.269	25	16	.359	133	+17	+0	—	—	+13	3.1
2023	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	29	23	5	0	0	2	6	7	0	0	1	.217	.379	.478	.858	.261	.214	24	21	.381	150	+2	-0	-0	+1	+1	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	298	254	57	14	0	13	40	69	3	3	0	.224	.337	.433	.770	.209	.254	23	13	.343	121	+7	+1	—	—	+8	1.6
2023	27	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	44	35	9	3	0	3	8	9	1	0	0	.257	.409	.600	1.009	.343	.261	20	18	.435	191	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	.243	.373	.414	.788	.171	.272	19	16	.357	132	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	186	158	35	4	0	10	23	48	4	0	0	.222	.335	.437	.772	.215	.248	26	12	.344	121	+4	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	29	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	61	51	7	2	0	1	10	17	0	0	0	.137	.279	.235	.514	.098	.182	28	16	.250	49	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			129	108	17	3	0	3	17	41	4	0	1	.157	.295	.269	.563	.111	.219	32	13	.270	65	-5	-0	-5	+5	+4	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Ellis (OGILVIE)	30	40	60	45	55	.209/.300/.377	.168	.266	9	2	29%	10%	92	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	43→48	51→50	43→45	47	.220/.295/.378	.157	.286	19	7	29%	9%	89	+0.9	.211/.280/.369	.158	.286	20	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	.200/.280/.351	.151	.266	19	3	31%	9%	71	-0.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	47→48	52→55	46→50	47	.240/.297/.410	.170	.281	20	8	22%	7%	98	+1.6	.216/.285/.374	.158	.262	17	6	24%	8%	84	+0.6	.180/.259/.335	.155	.212	17	2	24%	9%	64	-0.2
✕Donnie Murphy 2013 · MLB	30	41	56→60	48→45	44	.222/.285/.417	.195	.262	24	5	26%	6%	95	+1.4	.211/.276/.370	.159	.265	20	6	28%	6%	79	+0.3	.195/.262/.332	.137	.246	17	4	28%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	42→41	54→50	42→30	53	.224/.312/.404	.179	.271	22	3	26%	11%	103	+1.9	.221/.310/.369	.148	.294	18	4	29%	11%	93	+1.3	.209/.307/.339	.130	.290	16	2	31%	12%	81	+0.2
✕Valentino Pascucci 2009 · AAA	30	44→45	55	47→45	49	.229/.315/.413	.184	.294	24	7	30%	10%	106	+2.2	.218/.299/.387	.169	.291	21	4	31%	10%	93	+1.3	.204/.294/.373	.169	.289	22	0	35%	11%	84	+0.4
✕Andrew Brown 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	54→55	45→40	44	.234/.297/.416	.182	.305	22	5	30%	8%	99	+1.7	.231/.295/.407	.176	.289	21	5	27%	8%	97	+1.5	.218/.287/.392	.174	.264	23	2	27%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→43	53→60	49→50	48	.215/.286/.385	.171	.264	22	6	28%	9%	87	+0.8	.225/.283/.396	.171	.284	23	5	29%	7%	89	+0.9	.215/.272/.382	.166	.269	24	2	29%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Jabari Blash 2018 · MLB	29	41→40	55→60	43→50	49	.210/.315/.398	.188	.303	24	6	36%	12%	103	+1.9	.222/.315/.429	.207	.328	27	9	38%	10%	111	+2.5	.210/.301/.454	.245	.297	34	10	40%	9%	108	+1.5
✕Michael McKenry 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	50→55	44→40	48	.231/.299/.387	.156	.280	18	4	24%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.325/.408	.165	.299	18	6	24%	10%	109	+2.4	.231/.329/.388	.157	.295	17	5	26%	12%	101	+0.7
✕Jason Dubois 2009 · AAA	30	42→45	54→60	45→40	40	.225/.279/.401	.176	.286	23	5	30%	6%	88	+0.9	.231/.291/.423	.192	.296	26	5	31%	6%	99	+1.7	.228/.291/.430	.202	.289	28	1	31%	6%	98	+0.9
●Mark Reynolds 2014 · MLB	30	41→51	56→65	41→50	52	.218/.315/.409	.191	.278	25	4	30%	12%	106	+2.2	.225/.311/.405	.180	.284	24	5	28%	10%	103	+1.9	.254/.337/.432	.179	.329	22	2	28%	11%	113	+2.2
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	41→50	53→55	48→30	43	.215/.281/.388	.172	.297	21	3	34%	8%	85	+0.7	.201/.274/.353	.152	.294	19	5	36%	8%	74	-0.1	.156/.242/.290	.133	.225	17	0	37%	7%	42	-0.8
✕David Bote 2022 · MLB	29	42→48	50→55	47→45	52	.217/.306/.373	.156	.261	18	6	24%	10%	92	+1.2	.224/.293/.375	.151	.287	16	8	27%	7%	87	+0.8	.227/.294/.384	.157	.293	17	8	27%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Kyle Garlick 2023 · MLB	31	43→48	58→60	49→40	40	.234/.290/.430	.196	.296	27	6	31%	6%	101	+1.8	.197/.266/.352	.155	.282	21	4	36%	7%	70	-0.3	.170/.244/.307	.137	.246	19	2	38%	8%	49	-1.5
✕Michael Restovich 2009 · MLB	30	44→49	54→55	46→30	39	.230/.280/.408	.178	.302	22	5	32%	6%	90	+1.0	.234/.283/.386	.152	.308	17	3	28%	6%	85	+0.7	.226/.278/.368	.142	.302	15	0	29%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Brock Peterson 2014 · MLB	30	44→52	52→55	43→40	41	.232/.284/.397	.166	.295	21	4	29%	6%	89	+1.0	.222/.280/.360	.138	.304	16	3	31%	7%	78	+0.2	.209/.272/.334	.125	.291	14	1	32%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Eric Munson 2008 · MLB	30	44→43	52→60	43→40	49	.230/.294/.396	.166	.255	21	3	20%	8%	93	+1.3	.213/.289/.351	.138	.255	15	4	22%	9%	79	+0.3	.193/.280/.324	.131	.234	15	0	24%	9%	68	-0.2
✕Mike Wilson 2013 · MLB	30	45→54	52→60	47→50	46	.231/.301/.398	.168	.295	21	9	29%	8%	97	+1.5	.224/.284/.376	.152	.311	19	7	33%	7%	84	+0.6	.213/.273/.361	.148	.300	20	4	35%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Jon Knott 2008 · MLB	29	41→40	54→55	45→40	46	.219/.286/.403	.184	.261	22	5	26%	8%	92	+1.2	.222/.287/.387	.165	.276	19	6	26%	7%	88	+0.9	.211/.274/.373	.163	.255	19	2	25%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Bryce Brentz 2019 · MLB	30	42→50	54→60	47→40	39	.224/.269/.401	.177	.290	23	4	31%	6%	84	+0.6	.209/.273/.386	.177	.309	23	5	38%	7%	82	+0.5	.174/.252/.345	.171	.260	23	0	41%	8%	59	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)