Drew Ellis

3B Sacramento River Cats

Age 31 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA HR -15%H -3% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAROOKIEExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	27	AAA/AAPHI	342	.228/.346/.453	16	3	61	—	.175/.267/.328
2023	27	MLBPHI	29	.217/.379/.478	2	0	137	0.3
2024	28	AAALAA	134	.243/.373/.414	5	2	71	—	.186/.284/.314
2025	29	AAA/AASF	247	.201/.321/.388	11	0	47	—	.159/.248/.291
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBSF	16	.204/.290/.354	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBSF	47	.201/.285/.344	1	0	82	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Chase%82

BB%69

Max EV50

Whiff%38

K%37

Z-Con%25

CompsJohn Mayberry Jr. (age 31) · Eric Haase (age 31) · Anthony Recker (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .290 / .354

PA16

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP251

ISO67

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT40

xAVG

100.154

POWER60

Barrel%

315.8

Avg EV

1084.7

Bat Spd

5571.8

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4327.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2021

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	502	443	109	34	1	15	52	98	5	2	6	246	332	429	761	183	283	20	10	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	60	52	12	4	0	2	7	16	1	0	0	231	333	423	756	192	294	27	12	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	235	348	406	755	172	287	24	14	337	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	83	69	9	2	0	1	10	27	4	0	0	130	277	203	480	72	195	33	12	241	42	-6	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.6
2021	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	358	296	87	29	3	20	46	87	10	1	0	294	406	615	1.021	321	344	24	13	432	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	333	41	6	223	38	-1	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	468	385	87	27	2	19	74	117	5	6	3	226	358	455	812	229	269	25	16	359	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	29	23	5	0	0	2	6	7	0	0	1	217	379	478	858	261	214	24	21	381	137	+1	-0	-0	+1	+1	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	298	254	57	14	0	13	40	69	3	3	0	224	337	433	770	209	254	23	13	343	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	44	35	9	3	0	3	8	9	1	0	0	257	409	600	1.009	343	261	20	18	435	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	243	373	414	788	171	272	19	16	357	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	186	158	35	4	0	10	23	48	4	0	0	222	335	437	772	215	248	26	12	344	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	61	51	7	2	0	1	10	17	0	0	0	137	279	235	514	98	182	28	16	250	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	129	108	17	3	0	3	17	41	4	0	1	157	295	269	563	111	219	32	13	270	69	-5	-0	-5	+5	+3	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	502	458	88	24	1	13	37	128	5	2	6	192	260	334	594	142	234	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	451	399	78	19	0	12	43	129	3	0	3	195	279	333	612	138	245	29	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	83	70	9	2	0	1	9	27	4	0	0	129	265	200	465	71	195	33	11	230	42	-6	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.6
2021	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	358	308	68	21	2	15	34	105	10	1	0	221	318	448	766	227	268	29	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	333	41	6	225	38	-1	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	468	411	75	26	2	12	48	138	5	6	3	182	276	343	619	161	237	29	10	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	29	23	5	0	0	2	6	7	0	0	1	217	379	478	858	261	214	24	21	371	137	+1	-0	-0	+1	+1	0.3
2023	27	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	298	266	45	10	0	9	28	83	3	3	0	169	256	308	564	139	201	28	9	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	44	37	8	3	0	2	6	11	1	0	0	216	341	459	800	243	221	25	14	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	118	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	186	284	314	597	127	221	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	186	166	28	3	0	7	15	57	4	0	0	169	254	313	567	145	200	31	8	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	61	54	7	2	0	1	7	20	0	0	0	130	230	222	452	93	159	33	11	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	562	513	99	27	1	15	41	143	6	2	6	193	261	337	598	144	235	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	562	495	121	38	1	17	59	114	6	2	6	244	332	428	760	184	284	20	10	338	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	451	399	78	19	0	12	43	129	3	0	3	195	279	333	612	138	251	29	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Jackson Generals	—	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	235	348	406	755	172	287	24	14	337	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	378	77	23	2	16	43	132	14	1	0	204	308	402	710	198	258	30	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	441	365	96	31	3	21	56	114	14	1	0	263	382	537	919	274	318	26	13	396	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	427	78	27	2	12	49	145	5	6	3	183	274	340	614	157	241	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	485	401	90	28	2	19	75	124	5	6	3	224	353	446	800	222	271	26	15	354	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	371	326	57	12	0	13	40	101	4	3	1	175	273	331	604	156	207	27	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	371	312	71	17	0	18	54	85	4	3	1	228	349	455	804	228	252	23	15	357	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	118	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	186	284	314	597	127	217	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	243	373	414	788	171	272	19	16	357	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	247	220	34	5	0	8	22	77	4	0	0	155	244	286	530	132	191	31	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	247	209	42	6	0	11	33	65	4	0	0	201	321	388	709	187	231	26	13	321	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	562	510	99	27	1	15	41	143	6	2	6	194	261	339	600	145	234	25	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Jackson Generals	—	451	402	78	19	0	12	43	129	3	0	3	194	279	331	609	137	245	29	10	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	441	381	77	23	2	16	43	132	14	1	0	202	308	399	707	197	254	30	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	485	428	78	27	2	12	49	145	5	6	3	182	274	339	613	157	240	30	10	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	371	324	57	12	0	13	40	101	4	3	1	176	273	333	606	157	204	27	11	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	117	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	188	284	316	600	128	221	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	247	219	34	5	0	8	22	77	4	0	0	155	244	288	532	132	190	31	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	117	22	1	1	4	14	31	2	2	0	188	284	316	600	128	221	23	10	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	247	219	34	5	0	8	22	77	4	0	0	155	244	288	532	132	190	31	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SF	10%	297	263	54	9	1	10	28	79	4	5	1	209	294	368	661	158	255	27	9	297	87	-5	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	SF	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	204	290	354	644	150	251	25	6	290	87	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	SF	27%	172	152	31	5	1	5	16	46	2	1	1	206	289	357	645	151	252	27	9	290	82	-4	-0	-4	+1	+4	-0.3
2028	32	MLB CTX	SF	27%	47	42	7	1	0	1	4	13	1	0	0	201	285	344	629	143	249	28	9	284	82	-1	+0	-1	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	176	150	24	4	0	4	21	54	5	0	1	160	284	267	551	107	217	31	12	274	72	-6	-0	-6	+5	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	554	89	15	0	15	78	199	18	0	4	161	285	269	554	108	218	31	12	274	72	-21	-1	-21	+18	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3018	2671	505	124	8	90	282	845	42	17	15	189	277	343	619	154	236	28	9	275	72	-11	-1	-9	+6	+10	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	109	27	2	19	61	182	9	4	3	190	278	343	620	153	237	28	9	275	72	-15	-1	-12	+8	+14	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 186 PAwOBA .337 → .255 (−82)K% 25.8% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.81%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	30.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.37%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.20%
HBP% /PA	2.15%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.96%
Singles /BIP	19.09%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	15.92%
Doubles /BIP	3.64%	÷0.959	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	2.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .337 → .255; ISO .215 → .158; BABIP .248 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 61 PAwOBA .244 → .184 (−60)K% 27.9% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.87%	÷1.018	×1.220	—	—	33.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.39%	÷0.962	×0.700	—	×0.948	11.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.76%	÷1.004	×0.970	—	×0.948	10.78%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.992	×0.860	—	×0.948	4.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.183	×0.780	—	×0.948	1.84%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .244 → .184; ISO .098 → .068; BABIP .182 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 134 PAwOBA .346 → .273 (−73)K% 18.7% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.66%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.93%	÷0.944	×0.690	—	×0.982	10.72%
HBP% /PA	1.49%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.38%
Singles /BIP	22.09%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.951	×0.982	18.62%
Doubles /BIP	2.33%	÷1.141	×0.830	×0.951	×0.982	1.58%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.951	×0.982	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	5.81%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 94, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .346 → .273; ISO .171 → .133; BABIP .272 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 298 PAwOBA .336 → .248 (−88)K% 23.2% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.15%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	27.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.42%	÷0.982	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.35%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.94%
Singles /BIP	16.22%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	13.99%
Doubles /BIP	7.57%	÷1.117	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.105	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.03%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .336 → .248; ISO .209 → .142; BABIP .254 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 44 PAwOBA .423 → .331 (−93)K% 20.5% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.45%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	24.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×0.968	12.64%
HBP% /PA	2.27%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	1.87%
Singles /BIP	11.54%	÷1.017	×0.970	—	×0.968	10.66%
Doubles /BIP	11.54%	÷0.999	×0.860	—	×0.968	9.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.005	×0.950	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.54%	÷1.050	×0.780	—	×0.968	8.30%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 101, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .423 → .331; ISO .343 → .263; BABIP .261 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 468 PAwOBA .352 → .277 (−76)K% 25.0% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.60%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×1.003	10.30%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.01%
Singles /BIP	14.55%	÷1.013	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	12.73%
Doubles /BIP	10.07%	÷0.839	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	9.50%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷0.902	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	7.09%	÷1.144	×0.700	—	×1.003	4.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .352 → .277; ISO .229 → .174; BABIP .269 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 358 PAwOBA .428 → .332 (−96)K% 24.3% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.30%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.85%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.37%
HBP% /PA	2.79%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.67%
Singles /BIP	16.75%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	14.38%
Doubles /BIP	13.88%	÷1.096	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	10.16%
Triples /BIP	1.44%	÷1.113	×0.920	×0.950	×1.018	1.15%
Home runs /BIP	9.57%	÷0.958	×0.700	—	×1.018	7.12%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .428 → .332; ISO .321 → .239; BABIP .344 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAJackson Generals · 451 PAwOBA .332 → .270 (−62)K% 24.2% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.17%	÷1.028	×1.220	—	—	28.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.97%	÷1.001	×0.680	—	×1.012	9.61%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.57%
Singles /BIP	19.26%	÷0.996	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	17.10%
Doubles /BIP	8.52%	÷1.099	×0.910	×0.950	×1.012	6.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.19%	÷0.966	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.35%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .332 → .270; ISO .172 → .144; BABIP .287 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Ellis (OGILVIE)	31	40	60	45	55	207/291/364	157	255	5	2	26%	9%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	48	227/295/393	167	269	18	5	23%	8%	93	+0.8	214/281/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	82	-0.0	161/216/284	123	202	11	4	26%	6%	38	-0.8
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	51→50	43→45	47	217/290/374	157	283	19	6	30%	9%	88	+0.4	208/275/364	156	281	19	6	32%	8%	80	-0.2	192/268/338	145	255	18	3	31%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41→40	55→65	47→45	41	221/283/406	185	271	23	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	203/267/337	134	257	16	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	166/234/261	95	210	12	0	27%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Mike Brosseau 2024 · MLB	30	41→51	51→55	47→45	43	215/285/366	151	273	20	6	29%	7%	84	+0.1	207/275/321	114	260	14	7	26%	7%	70	-0.9	192/263/287	95	241	13	5	25%	7%	55	-1.2
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	40→42	51→55	48→45	48	211/290/369	159	273	20	5	30%	9%	86	+0.3	208/288/370	162	288	20	3	33%	10%	86	+0.3	194/280/355	161	272	21	0	35%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Michael McKenry 2016 · MLB	31	48→47	50→55	43→40	53	241/325/403	161	293	17	8	23%	10%	107	+1.8	206/298/335	129	283	12	6	29%	11%	82	-0.0	175/275/285	109	248	10	2	31%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Brooks Conrad 2011 · MLB	31	42→43	52→55	53→50	44	221/281/388	168	277	20	12	28%	7%	87	+0.4	228/294/417	189	303	24	9	32%	8%	99	+1.3	202/264/392	189	261	26	2	33%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Taylor Motter 2022 · MLB	32	42→49	52→50	47→55	51	220/299/386	166	266	19	4	25%	10%	93	+0.8	208/277/361	153	266	18	8	28%	9%	80	-0.2	185/254/326	141	236	18	8	29%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Jacob Wilson 2021 · AAA	31	46→48	50	46→40	48	237/300/395	158	283	18	6	23%	8%	96	+1.0	220/286/390	170	267	19	6	25%	7%	90	+0.6	195/265/376	181	225	20	0	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Cody Ransom 2009 · MLB	33	38→39	53→55	48→50	44	206/269/380	173	255	22	11	29%	7%	81	-0.1	212/273/380	168	268	20	10	28%	7%	82	+0.0	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Brian O'Keefe 2024 · MLB	31	39→42	50	41→40	43	205/263/360	156	263	18	4	29%	7%	74	-0.5	196/254/337	141	249	17	5	28%	7%	65	-1.2	174/231/302	128	216	17	3	28%	7%	46	-0.9
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	45→52	53→55	43→50	40	236/278/404	168	304	22	5	30%	6%	90	+0.6	217/257/382	165	292	20	13	32%	5%	77	-0.3	197/238/348	151	267	18	16	33%	4%	59	-0.8
✕Mikie Mahtook 2021 · MLB	31	40→50	54→55	48→50	44	215/281/392	177	269	23	13	29%	7%	88	+0.5	208/262/364	156	264	20	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	181/231/331	150	221	21	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4
✕Andrew Knizner 2024 · MLB	29	45	49→50	46→40	47	229/296/370	141	274	17	5	23%	7%	88	+0.5	230/299/355	125	276	13	5	21%	7%	86	+0.3	226/301/342	116	269	12	2	20%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Armando Alvarez 2024 · AAA	30	45→47	51→55	49→50	45	233/281/393	160	267	19	10	21%	6%	88	+0.4	235/295/377	142	296	16	9	25%	7%	89	+0.5	229/294/358	129	294	15	6	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Carlos Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	38→48	53→55	46→45	46	209/273/378	169	228	23	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0	209/273/380	171	232	21	3	21%	7%	82	+0.0	196/260/370	174	213	22	1	21%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Mario Lisson 2015 · AAA	31	43→49	49→50	47→55	45	222/290/369	146	272	17	12	25%	7%	86	+0.3	220/284/341	121	288	14	8	27%	7%	78	-0.3	208/273/315	108	275	12	6	28%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Brandon Larson 2007 · MLB	31	43→40	50	44→45	41	223/276/375	152	289	19	6	30%	6%	82	+0.0	221/266/362	141	276	17	8	26%	5%	75	-0.5	199/230/325	126	230	17	4	23%	4%	51	-0.8
✕Jason Vosler 2024 · MLB	30	38→44	52→55	48→40	44	205/267/365	160	257	21	5	29%	7%	77	-0.3	221/277/382	161	278	19	6	27%	6%	84	+0.2	222/275/386	164	273	20	4	26%	6%	82	-0.0