Drew Ellis — OGILVIE

Drew Ellis3B Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA HR -8%H -3% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .295 / .372

PA250

HR10

K%29

BB%10

ISO172

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3712.5%

xwOBA

100.260

POWER60

Barrel%

315.8

Avg EV

1084.7

Bat Spd

5571.8

EYE55

Chase%

8624.7%

SPEED45

Sprint

4327.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	562	514	100	26	1	15	40	139	6	2	6	195	261	337	597	142	235	25	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	2 teams	—	562	495	121	38	1	17	59	114	6	2	6	244	332	428	760	184	284	20	10	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	451	399	77	16	0	14	43	133	3	0	3	193	276	338	615	145	245	29	10	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	235	348	406	755	172	287	24	14	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	441	377	76	21	2	19	44	133	14	1	0	202	308	419	727	218	247	30	10	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	441	365	96	31	3	21	56	114	14	1	0	263	382	537	919	274	318	26	13	396	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	485	428	81	32	2	12	48	152	5	6	3	189	279	357	636	168	257	31	10	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	485	401	90	28	2	19	75	124	5	6	3	224	353	446	800	222	271	26	15	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	—	371	326	57	11	0	15	40	102	4	3	1	175	273	347	620	172	200	27	11	275	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	3 teams	—	371	312	71	17	0	18	54	85	4	3	1	228	349	455	804	228	252	23	15	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	116	22	1	1	5	16	34	2	2	0	190	299	345	643	155	221	25	12	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	243	373	414	788	171	272	19	16	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	247	219	34	5	0	9	23	82	4	0	0	155	248	301	549	146	194	33	9	247	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	247	209	42	6	0	11	33	65	4	0	0	201	321	388	709	187	231	26	13	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	SF	—	250	219	45	7	1	10	26	72	3	2	0	205	298	384	682	178	251	29	10	302	89	-3	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	SF	33%	270	237	49	8	1	10	27	77	4	2	0	207	299	376	674	169	253	29	10	300	88	-4	+0	-4	+1	+8	0.2
2028	32	MLB	SF	46%	251	221	45	7	1	9	25	71	3	1	0	204	293	367	660	163	253	28	10	296	85	-4	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.0
2027	31	MLB	SF	33%	88	78	16	3	0	3	9	25	1	1	0	205	295	359	654	154	248	28	10	285	76	-2	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	32	MLB	SF	46%	115	102	20	3	0	4	11	33	1	1	0	196	281	343	624	147	248	29	10	281	73	-3	+0	-2	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	332	288	53	9	0	10	37	99	6	2	1	184	290	319	609	135	239	30	11	278	71	-11	+0	-8	+5	+9	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	105	18	0	20	72	194	12	4	2	186	292	324	616	138	241	30	11	278	71	-21	+0	-15	+10	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	3462	3056	586	134	9	118	332	995	48	19	13	192	281	357	638	166	238	29	10	282	74	-102	-1	-13	+12	+98	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	110	25	2	22	62	187	9	4	2	192	281	357	638	166	238	29	10	282	74	-19	+0	-3	+2	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	502	443	109	34	1	15	52	98	5	2	6	246	332	429	761	183	283	20	10	338	117	+10	-2	—	—	+14	2.2
2018	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	60	52	12	4	0	2	7	16	1	0	0	231	333	423	756	192	294	27	12	339	118	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2019	23	AA	Jackson Generals	—	451	379	89	23	0	14	63	109	3	0	3	235	348	406	755	172	287	24	14	337	116	+8	-1	—	—	+13	2.0
2021	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	83	69	9	2	0	1	10	27	4	0	0	130	277	203	480	72	195	33	12	241	43	-5	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.5
2021	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	358	296	87	29	3	20	46	87	10	1	0	294	406	615	1.021	321	344	24	13	432	189	+36	+0	—	—	+10	4.7
2022	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	333	41	6	223	29	-1	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	468	385	87	27	2	19	74	117	5	6	3	226	358	455	812	229	269	25	16	359	133	+17	+0	—	—	+13	3.1
2023	27	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	29	23	5	0	0	2	6	7	0	0	1	217	379	478	858	261	214	24	21	381	150	+2	-0	-0	+1	+1	0.3
2023	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	298	254	57	14	0	13	40	69	3	3	0	224	337	433	770	209	254	23	13	343	121	+7	+1	—	—	+8	1.6
2023	27	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	44	35	9	3	0	3	8	9	1	0	0	257	409	600	1.009	343	261	20	18	435	191	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	28	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	134	111	27	2	1	5	21	25	2	2	0	243	373	414	788	171	272	19	16	357	132	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	186	158	35	4	0	10	23	48	4	0	0	222	335	437	772	215	248	26	12	344	121	+4	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	29	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	61	51	7	2	0	1	10	17	0	0	0	137	279	235	514	98	182	28	16	250	49	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	129	108	17	3	0	3	17	41	4	0	1	157	295	269	563	111	219	32	13	270	65	-5	-0	-5	+5	+4	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	311	9	2	187	289	329	+1	-3	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	20	3	187	289	329	+2.4	-6.5	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Ellis (OGILVIE)	30	40	60	45	55	202/295/372	170	251	10	2	29%	10%	89	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	42→48	52→55	43→45	47	220/295/386	166	285	21	6	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/278/363	155	281	19	6	32%	8%	78	+0.2	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Cameron Rupp 2019 · MLB	30	40→48	55→60	48→30	42	215/279/397	183	294	23	3	35%	8%	88	+0.9	204/276/359	155	296	19	6	36%	8%	76	+0.1	154/240/282	128	225	16	0	37%	8%	40	-0.9
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2014 · MLB	30	46→48	51→55	45→50	47	237/295/399	163	280	18	7	23%	7%	94	+1.3	215/284/374	159	260	18	6	24%	8%	83	+0.6	182/261/345	163	213	18	2	24%	9%	65	-0.2
✕Jason Vosler 2023 · MLB	29	42→43	53→55	49→40	45	223/288/393	170	274	22	6	27%	7%	90	+1.0	215/275/384	169	275	21	6	29%	7%	82	+0.5	205/266/377	172	258	22	4	30%	7%	73	-0.1
✕Michael McKenry 2014 · MLB	29	45→47	51→55	45→40	48	232/299/392	160	279	19	4	24%	8%	94	+1.3	231/315/383	152	289	17	7	24%	10%	98	+1.6	214/312/358	144	276	15	5	26%	11%	87	+0.3
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	42→40	55→65	47→45	41	223/287/406	183	274	23	7	28%	6%	93	+1.3	203/268/336	133	258	16	6	27%	6%	66	-0.6	166/235/261	96	210	12	0	27%	7%	32	-1.0
✕Eric Munson 2007 · MLB	29	42→43	56→60	43→40	46	227/289/415	187	251	25	3	22%	7%	96	+1.5	219/290/362	143	256	16	4	21%	8%	82	+0.5	209/286/342	134	246	14	1	21%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Mark Reynolds 2014 · MLB	30	41→51	56→65	41→50	52	218/314/405	187	277	25	4	30%	11%	105	+2.1	223/309/398	175	282	23	5	28%	10%	100	+1.7	232/318/389	157	302	19	2	28%	11%	99	+1.3
✕Tom Murphy 2022 · MLB	31	44→34	55→60	47→45	50	232/317/414	182	298	24	4	30%	11%	108	+2.3	249/327/436	187	327	23	5	29%	10%	117	+2.9	292/341/547	255	363	32	0	28%	6%	150	+1.4
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	43	55→50	42→30	53	228/314/412	184	273	23	3	25%	11%	105	+2.1	227/315/379	152	301	18	4	29%	11%	97	+1.5	216/313/352	135	294	17	2	30%	12%	88	+0.5
✕Jayson Nix 2011 · MLB	28	43→49	54→55	46→55	46	230/296/403	173	266	22	10	23%	7%	96	+1.5	216/281/350	134	275	14	13	26%	7%	76	+0.0	207/276/316	109	275	10	18	27%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Valentino Pascucci 2009 · AAA	30	44→45	55	47→45	49	229/315/411	182	294	24	7	30%	10%	106	+2.2	217/297/383	166	291	21	4	31%	10%	92	+1.2	207/295/373	166	295	22	0	35%	10%	85	+0.5
✕Gary Sánchez 2023 · MLB	30	37→47	55→65	48→45	49	206/293/391	184	253	24	3	29%	10%	92	+1.2	225/308/426	201	270	28	3	27%	9%	108	+2.3	224/310/436	212	260	32	1	27%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	45→42	50	46→45	44	229/296/383	154	293	18	6	28%	7%	91	+1.1	226/275/382	156	289	20	6	28%	6%	81	+0.4	216/261/366	150	271	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.3
✕Chad Wallach 2022 · MLB	30	39→49	53→50	47→40	42	210/279/379	169	284	22	4	34%	8%	82	+0.5	197/264/339	142	276	18	5	34%	7%	66	-0.6	186/257/330	144	259	20	2	35%	8%	58	-0.5
✕J.P. Arencibia 2016 · MLB	30	34→44	56→60	43→30	33	201/232/380	179	246	27	2	32%	3%	63	-0.8	201/232/341	140	270	19	5	33%	3%	52	-1.6	175/197/280	105	239	15	1	34%	1%	17	-2.5
✕Daniel Palka 2022 · MLB	30	40→44	53→55	50	47	215/284/382	167	268	21	7	28%	9%	85	+0.7	225/282/392	167	291	22	5	30%	7%	87	+0.8	217/273/380	163	279	23	2	31%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Jack Mayfield 2021 · MLB	30	43→45	54→60	47→50	41	228/274/403	175	266	22	8	24%	5%	87	+0.8	223/268/383	160	264	19	11	23%	5%	79	+0.3	216/260/376	159	254	19	10	23%	4%	71	-0.2
●John Buck 2010 · MLB	30	45→53	53→60	39→30	47	233/301/415	182	280	20	3	25%	8%	101	+1.8	247/312/425	178	299	22	2	24%	8%	108	+2.3	238/313/408	170	286	22	0	24%	9%	98	+1.2
✕David Bote 2022 · MLB	29	42→48	49→55	47→45	51	215/300/363	148	259	17	5	24%	10%	88	+0.9	225/293/375	150	288	16	8	27%	7%	87	+0.8	225/292/380	155	289	17	8	27%	7%	85	+0.4