Kyle Lewis
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 26 | MLBSEA | 147 | .246/.333/.392 | 5 | 2 | 110 | 0.6 | ||
| 2022 | 27 | AAASEA | 174 | .245/.362/.517 | 12 | 0 | 76 | — | .192/.276/.353 | |
| 2022 | 27 | MLBSEA | 62 | .143/.226/.304 | 3 | 0 | 52 | -0.5 | ||
| 2023 | 28 | AAAARI | 293 | .371/.462/.641 | 17 | 0 | 133 | — | .300/.366/.487 | |
| 2023 | 28 | MLBARI | 54 | .157/.204/.255 | 1 | 0 | 25 | -0.8 | ||
| 2024 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 167 | 149 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 327 | 403 | 730 | 148 | 299 | 23 | 9 | 324 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 46 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 447 | 811 | 184 | 360 | 30 | 9 | 347 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 152 | 132 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 313 | 371 | 685 | 152 | 255 | 21 | 11 | 306 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 211 | 196 | 51 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 306 | 429 | 735 | 168 | 333 | 26 | 5 | 322 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 75 | 71 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 297 | 592 | 889 | 324 | 351 | 39 | 4 | 377 | 145 | +4 | +0 | +1 | -6 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 517 | 457 | 120 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 56 | 152 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 263 | 344 | 398 | 743 | 136 | 367 | 29 | 11 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 242 | 206 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 367 | 437 | 804 | 175 | 341 | 29 | 14 | 358 | 131 | +9 | +1 | +3 | +1 | +5 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 147 | 130 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 333 | 392 | 726 | 146 | 307 | 25 | 11 | 328 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | — | 62 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 226 | 304 | 529 | 161 | 147 | 31 | 8 | 242 | 52 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 174 | 147 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 26 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 362 | 517 | 879 | 272 | 267 | 26 | 15 | 386 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 54 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 204 | 255 | 459 | 98 | 241 | 39 | 6 | 209 | 25 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 293 | 248 | 92 | 16 | 0 | 17 | 39 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 371 | 462 | 641 | 1.103 | 270 | 426 | 20 | 13 | 473 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 580 | 514 | 121 | 14 | 0 | 26 | 61 | 177 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 319 | 414 | 733 | 179 | 303 | 31 | 11 | 327 | 107 | +5 | +1 | +4 | -11 | +13 | 1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 167 | 153 | 34 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 279 | 359 | 638 | 137 | 280 | 31 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 46 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 175 | 250 | 325 | 575 | 150 | 272 | 43 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 152 | 138 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 267 | 348 | 614 | 145 | 240 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 211 | 200 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 244 | 355 | 599 | 145 | 301 | 35 | 3 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 75 | 71 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 297 | 592 | 889 | 324 | 351 | 39 | 4 | 383 | 145 | +4 | +0 | +1 | -6 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 517 | 474 | 108 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 180 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 228 | 288 | 352 | 640 | 124 | 334 | 35 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 242 | 206 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 367 | 437 | 804 | 175 | 341 | 29 | 14 | 362 | 131 | +9 | +1 | +3 | +1 | +5 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 147 | 130 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 333 | 392 | 726 | 146 | 307 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 62 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 226 | 304 | 529 | 161 | 147 | 31 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 174 | 156 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 276 | 353 | 628 | 160 | 236 | 30 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 54 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 204 | 255 | 459 | 98 | 241 | 39 | 6 | 205 | 25 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +1 | -0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 293 | 263 | 79 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 73 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 366 | 487 | 852 | 186 | 363 | 25 | 8 | 365 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 193 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 273 | 352 | 625 | 140 | 291 | 34 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 213 | 187 | 48 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 257 | 335 | 412 | 747 | 155 | 311 | 24 | 9 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 338 | 70 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 113 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 253 | 343 | 597 | 136 | 281 | 31 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 328 | 80 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 309 | 405 | 715 | 162 | 301 | 24 | 8 | 316 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 545 | 127 | 27 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 209 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 233 | 289 | 383 | 673 | 150 | 341 | 35 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 592 | 528 | 139 | 30 | 2 | 17 | 59 | 181 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 263 | 338 | 424 | 763 | 161 | 365 | 31 | 10 | 339 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 242 | 206 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 367 | 437 | 804 | 175 | 341 | 29 | 14 | 362 | 131 | +9 | +1 | +3 | +1 | +5 | 1.9 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | — | 242 | 206 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 367 | 437 | 804 | 175 | 341 | 29 | 14 | 358 | 131 | +9 | +1 | +3 | +1 | +5 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 147 | 130 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 333 | 392 | 726 | 146 | 307 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | — | 147 | 130 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 333 | 392 | 726 | 146 | 307 | 25 | 11 | 328 | 110 | +2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 236 | 212 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 267 | 358 | 625 | 175 | 217 | 31 | 9 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 236 | 203 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 326 | 458 | 784 | 241 | 234 | 27 | 13 | 348 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 314 | 86 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 337 | 443 | 780 | 169 | 348 | 27 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 347 | 299 | 100 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 42 | 79 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 334 | 422 | 575 | 997 | 241 | 400 | 23 | 12 | 432 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 195 | 41 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 73 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 273 | 349 | 621 | 138 | 278 | 34 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 339 | 70 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 113 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 253 | 342 | 596 | 136 | 275 | 31 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 544 | 127 | 27 | 2 | 17 | 42 | 209 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 233 | 289 | 384 | 673 | 151 | 336 | 35 | 7 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 242 | 206 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 262 | 367 | 437 | 804 | 175 | 341 | 29 | 14 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | — | 147 | 129 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 333 | 395 | 729 | 147 | 307 | 25 | 11 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 236 | 210 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 267 | 362 | 629 | 176 | 213 | 31 | 9 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 314 | 86 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 274 | 337 | 443 | 780 | 169 | 344 | 27 | 8 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 580 | 514 | 121 | 14 | 0 | 26 | 61 | 177 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 319 | 414 | 733 | 179 | 303 | 31 | 11 | 327 | 89 | +5 | +1 | +4 | -11 | +13 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 136 | 16 | 0 | 29 | 68 | 198 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 236 | 318 | 415 | 733 | 179 | 304 | 30 | 10 | 327 | 89 | +6 | +1 | +5 | -13 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2140 | 1938 | 449 | 78 | 3 | 72 | 172 | 669 | 13 | 14 | 4 | 232 | 299 | 386 | 685 | 155 | 311 | 31 | 8 | 300 | 89 | +5 | +1 | +4 | -11 | +13 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 137 | 24 | 1 | 22 | 52 | 203 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 233 | 299 | 389 | 688 | 156 | 312 | 31 | 8 | 300 | 89 | +6 | +1 | +5 | -13 | +14 | 1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAReno Aces · 293 PAwOBA .465 → .365 (−100)K% 19.8% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.80% | ÷0.951 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.31% | ÷1.096 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.05% | ÷1.026 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×0.992 | 28.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷1.059 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.992 | 6.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.95% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 6.14% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .465 → .365; ISO .270 → .194; BABIP .426 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 174 PAwOBA .375 → .280 (−95)K% 25.9% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.86% | ÷1.020 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.94% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.61% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 18.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷0.839 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 3.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.144 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 7.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .375 → .280; ISO .272 → .179; BABIP .267 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 517 PAwOBA .326 → .280 (−46)K% 29.4% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.40% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.19% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.89% | ÷0.966 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 24.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷0.916 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 7.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.922 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.72% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .326 → .280; ISO .136 → .128; BABIP .367 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Modesto Nuts · 211 PAwOBA .316 → .256 (−61)K% 26.1% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.07% | ÷0.990 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.21% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.86% | ÷1.003 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 18.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.77% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 11.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.018 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷0.925 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .316 → .256; ISO .168 → .142; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 152 PAwOBA .303 → .263 (−39)K% 21.1% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.18% | ÷1.097 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.00% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.027 | 15.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.840 | ×1.011 | ×1.027 | 7.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.55% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 85, K 104, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .303 → .263; ISO .152 → .141; BABIP .255 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Modesto Nuts · 167 PAwOBA .319 → .276 (−44)K% 22.8% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.75% | ÷0.972 | ×1.340 | — | — | 31.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.98% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 24.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.60% | ÷1.082 | ×0.820 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 2.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.760 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 5.81% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 116, 3B 108, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .319 → .276; ISO .148 → .140; BABIP .299 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKAZL Mariners · 46 PAwOBA .353 → .240 (−113)K% 30.4% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 19.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 3.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .353 → .240; ISO .184 → .123; BABIP .360 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).