Peyton Burdick — OGILVIE

Peyton BurdickCF Louisville Bats

Age 29 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .262 / .340

PA250

HR9

SB5

K%40

BB%8

ISO160

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 59

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT20

Whiff%

1018.0%

xwOBA

330.288

POWER59

Barrel%

7011.2

Avg EV

7891.0

EYE47

Chase%

3834.0%

SPEED58

Sprint

5827.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	288	248	58	15	3	7	23	88	12	6	6	234	329	403	732	169	323	31	8	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	288	238	73	20	3	10	32	67	12	6	6	307	413	542	955	235	380	23	11	412	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	491	425	72	15	1	19	55	198	11	9	5	169	281	344	625	174	255	40	11	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	491	401	90	20	2	23	79	146	11	9	5	224	367	456	823	232	289	30	16	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	532	472	82	19	5	15	46	190	11	14	3	174	263	331	593	157	248	36	9	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	2 teams	—	532	456	97	20	5	19	61	155	11	14	3	213	319	404	723	191	274	29	11	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	529	471	85	20	2	20	42	218	13	13	2	180	266	359	625	178	275	41	8	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	529	453	98	22	2	25	60	198	13	13	2	216	325	439	764	223	313	37	11	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	258	231	33	6	0	7	20	130	5	5	0	143	227	260	486	117	271	50	8	218	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	258	219	41	7	0	11	32	108	5	5	0	187	305	370	675	183	294	42	12	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	CIN	—	250	223	42	8	1	9	20	100	5	5	1	188	270	354	624	166	277	40	8	273	67	-9	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	CIN	27%	333	297	56	11	1	11	27	128	6	6	1	189	270	343	613	155	278	38	8	276	69	-12	+1	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
2027	30	MLB	CIN	27%	91	82	15	3	0	3	7	35	2	2	0	183	264	329	593	146	281	38	8	266	62	-4	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	230	207	40	9	0	8	18	88	5	4	0	193	274	353	627	159	288	38	8	282	74	-7	+1	-6	-3	+7	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	113	25	0	23	51	249	14	11	0	193	274	354	628	161	288	38	8	282	74	-19	+2	-16	-10	+18	-2.5
Career	—			—	2681	2367	428	94	13	88	233	1052	63	58	18	181	272	343	615	162	274	39	9	271	66	-103	+4	-8	+2	+76	-3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	103	23	3	21	56	255	15	14	4	179	269	340	609	160	272	39	9	271	66	-25	+1	-2	+0	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Clinton LumberKings	—	288	238	73	20	3	10	32	67	12	6	6	307	413	542	955	235	380	23	11	412	173	+24	-1	—	—	+8	3.2
2021	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	31	28	4	3	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	143	226	250	476	107	235	35	10	221	27	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2021	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	460	373	86	17	2	23	76	135	11	9	5	231	376	472	848	241	293	29	17	378	147	+25	-0	—	—	+13	3.8
2022	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	102	92	19	4	0	4	8	35	2	1	0	207	284	380	665	174	283	34	8	299	87	-2	+0	-4	+2	+3	-0.0
2022	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	430	364	78	16	5	15	53	120	9	13	3	214	328	409	737	195	272	28	12	329	110	+5	+1	—	—	+12	1.9
2023	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	37	33	6	2	0	1	3	18	1	1	0	182	270	333	604	152	357	49	8	275	69	-1	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.7
2023	26	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	492	420	92	20	2	24	57	180	12	12	2	219	329	448	777	229	311	37	12	344	121	+12	+2	—	—	+14	2.8
2024	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	258	219	41	7	0	11	32	108	5	5	0	187	305	370	675	183	294	42	12	305	92	-2	+1	—	—	+7	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	139	125	25	6	0	5	11	53	3	2	0	200	281	368	649	168	299	38	8	293	82	-3	+0	-5	-4	+4	-0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	218	8	3	198	274	365	+1	-3	0.2	0.2
	/162	664	24	10	198	274	365	+2.4	-9.5	0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Peyton Burdick (OGILVIE)	29	20	59	58	47	182/262/340	158	277	9	5	40%	8%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Taylor Snyder 2023 · AAA	28	33→31	54→50	52→50	34	188/234/358	170	279	23	11	41%	6%	58	-1.2	181/245/301	120	305	14	15	42%	7%	48	-1.9	126/209/215	89	212	11	21	44%	9%	9	-2.1
✕Sam Hilliard 2022 · MLB	28	32→42	55	55	41	185/252/366	181	256	23	15	37%	8%	68	-0.5	203/278/364	161	283	20	16	34%	9%	79	+0.3	190/268/352	162	268	18	18	34%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Jim Haley 2023 · AAA	28	35→44	50	55	34	191/244/342	151	278	19	19	38%	5%	58	-1.2	209/264/336	127	285	14	21	31%	5%	64	-0.8	207/263/321	115	277	12	24	29%	5%	57	-0.8
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	50	52→50	41	196/252/349	153	257	19	10	32%	7%	63	-0.8	201/258/315	114	276	11	9	30%	7%	56	-1.3	190/247/283	93	269	7	7	30%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Mark Contreras 2023 · MLB	28	37	51→50	55	36	198/257/358	160	281	20	20	36%	6%	69	-0.4	204/266/321	117	295	13	26	33%	6%	62	-0.9	196/263/289	93	286	10	32	33%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Brandon Hicks 2015 · MLB	29	36→41	49→50	46→50	41	187/265/334	147	282	18	7	38%	8%	66	-0.6	188/258/303	115	312	13	8	41%	8%	54	-1.4	165/233/253	88	291	10	8	44%	7%	27	-1.3
✕Kevin Padlo 2023 · MLB	27	37→40	50→55	52→50	39	199/251/350	152	268	19	13	33%	6%	63	-0.8	192/271/329	137	269	15	13	32%	9%	66	-0.6	170/265/300	130	236	14	13	33%	11%	56	-0.8
✕Clint Coulter 2022 · AAA	29	41→42	54→50	48→40	34	213/261/383	170	319	23	7	40%	6%	76	+0.1	220/285/370	150	265	17	7	24%	5%	83	+0.6	212/285/355	143	244	15	5	20%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Caleb Hamilton 2023 · MLB	28	36	52→45	48→45	47	191/282/351	160	279	21	6	38%	11%	77	+0.1	177/257/306	129	280	16	7	40%	9%	55	-1.4	106/194/193	87	165	13	5	43%	9%	-2	-1.3
✕Taylor Featherston 2019 · MLB	29	37→45	45→55	54→50	37	189/247/308	120	279	13	12	36%	6%	50	-1.7	183/237/315	132	337	16	9	48%	5%	49	-1.8	148/201/281	132	295	18	5	54%	4%	21	-2.8
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→44	50→55	50	38	212/255/362	151	286	19	11	33%	6%	68	-0.5	206/255/336	130	295	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.0	194/246/316	121	279	14	8	35%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Jordan Qsar 2023 · AAA	27	39→38	54→55	52→50	38	197/272/375	177	325	22	13	44%	8%	79	+0.3	206/287/357	151	334	18	15	40%	9%	81	+0.4	181/285/326	145	286	18	20	40%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	38→37	50	51→50	36	205/243/354	149	265	18	13	31%	4%	60	-1.0	223/281/343	120	285	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	228/298/319	92	290	8	6	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Kevin Richardson 2011 · AAA	30	36	49→50	49→40	30	189/232/332	143	302	18	5	43%	4%	50	-1.7	216/266/352	136	340	16	6	39%	5%	69	-0.4	212/270/338	125	340	14	0	39%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Melky Mesa 2015 · AAA	28	42→43	51→55	51→55	32	218/257/372	154	311	19	14	36%	4%	71	-0.3	204/240/314	110	320	10	8	38%	3%	48	-1.9	192/226/291	98	307	7	5	39%	3%	31	-1.8
✕Stone Garrett 2023 · MLB	27	38→37	56→55	53→50	35	214/252/400	187	277	25	17	33%	4%	77	+0.1	219/282/362	143	318	16	10	34%	7%	79	+0.3	222/301/341	118	337	12	5	34%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Alex Jackson 2023 · MLB	27	40→35	51→60	50→30	39	203/279/366	163	298	19	6	37%	7%	80	+0.4	204/265/374	170	269	21	4	32%	6%	76	+0.0	186/246/363	177	237	23	1	32%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Brian O'Grady 2021 · MLB	29	41→37	57→60	52→50	39	222/276/420	198	292	26	16	33%	6%	92	+1.2	211/277/371	160	292	18	14	33%	8%	79	+0.3	187/262/347	160	256	17	13	33%	8%	66	-0.4
●Trayce Thompson 2021 · MLB	30	34→44	54→65	49→50	33	190/237/358	168	283	23	12	41%	5%	59	-1.1	220/298/437	217	307	29	9	36%	9%	106	+2.2	211/299/435	223	292	31	7	37%	10%	103	+1.1
✕Brandon Waring 2014 · AAA	28	35→40	55	45→40	36	193/256/372	178	278	24	2	39%	6%	72	-0.2	191/251/343	152	332	18	5	45%	6%	62	-0.9	158/220/305	147	295	17	2	50%	5%	36	-1.8