Jeter Downs — OGILVIE

Jeter DownsSS Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 197 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .284 / .345

PA250

HR7

SB8

K%27

BB%8

ISO145

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT34

Whiff%

1020.1%

xwOBA

100.132

POWER47

Avg EV

1068.0

Bat Spd

4771.0

EYE47

Chase%

1039.8%

SPEED61

Sprint

8428.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	209	183	36	2	2	5	16	46	4	8	5	197	276	311	587	115	226	22	8	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	209	172	46	3	3	6	27	32	4	8	5	267	379	424	804	157	288	15	13	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	524	478	94	20	2	8	29	144	14	37	10	197	263	297	560	100	263	27	6	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	524	455	117	23	2	13	52	103	14	37	10	257	351	402	753	145	306	20	10	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	2 teams	—	535	474	106	30	3	23	46	146	6	24	8	224	300	445	746	222	266	27	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+	2 teams	—	535	460	127	35	4	24	60	107	6	24	8	276	367	526	893	250	307	20	11	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	2 teams	—	477	435	65	8	0	8	31	178	5	22	5	149	214	223	437	74	224	37	6	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA	2 teams	—	477	414	81	9	0	19	52	149	5	22	5	196	293	355	648	159	247	31	11	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	—	433	384	59	8	1	18	32	158	14	18	4	154	244	320	564	167	194	36	7	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	—	433	371	69	14	1	17	45	139	14	18	4	186	298	367	664	181	239	32	10	301	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	211	180	30	7	1	2	25	63	4	11	3	167	282	250	532	83	239	30	12	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	211	170	39	12	1	3	35	50	4	11	3	229	373	365	738	135	303	24	17	339	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	237	52	12	3	8	20	83	8	15	6	219	302	397	699	177	288	30	7	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	227	60	17	3	10	30	68	8	15	6	264	370	498	868	233	321	25	11	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	NYY	—	250	222	45	9	1	7	21	68	5	8	3	203	286	347	633	144	257	27	8	286	77	-7	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	NYY	33%	342	304	63	13	2	9	29	92	6	10	3	207	289	352	641	145	261	27	8	288	79	-8	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.1
2028	30	MLB	NYY	46%	354	315	65	13	2	9	30	95	6	9	3	206	288	346	634	140	262	27	8	288	79	-9	+1	-3	+1	+10	0.0
2027	29	MLB	NYY	33%	112	100	21	4	1	3	9	30	2	3	1	210	288	360	648	150	262	27	8	277	70	-4	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	30	MLB	NYY	46%	162	144	30	6	1	4	14	43	3	4	1	208	292	347	639	139	264	27	9	278	71	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	315	283	57	11	2	8	24	94	5	7	2	201	276	339	615	138	266	30	8	266	62	-14	+1	-3	+3	+9	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	118	23	4	17	50	194	10	14	4	202	276	342	619	140	266	30	8	266	62	-28	+1	-6	+5	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	3609	3212	615	122	17	97	279	1073	72	162	50	191	271	331	602	139	249	30	8	267	63	-152	+12	-8	+14	+102	-3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	110	22	3	17	50	193	13	29	9	190	269	327	596	137	249	30	8	267	63	-27	+2	-1	+3	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	209	172	46	3	3	6	27	32	4	8	5	267	379	424	804	157	288	15	13	353	128	+7	-0	—	—	+6	1.2
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	524	455	117	23	2	13	52	103	14	37	10	257	351	402	753	145	306	20	10	339	118	+11	+3	—	—	+15	2.9
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	56	48	16	2	0	5	6	10	2	1	0	333	429	688	1.116	354	333	18	11	478	224	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2019	21	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	479	412	111	33	4	19	54	97	4	23	8	269	360	507	867	238	304	20	11	373	144	+24	+1	—	—	+14	3.9
2021	23	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	405	357	68	9	0	14	38	131	4	18	3	190	276	333	609	143	249	32	9	274	68	-15	+2	—	—	+11	-0.1
2021	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	72	57	13	0	0	5	14	18	1	4	2	228	389	491	880	263	235	25	19	391	157	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	154	175	256	431	103	278	51	2	187	2	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2022	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	335	284	56	11	1	16	38	99	12	18	4	197	317	412	729	215	235	30	11	327	109	+3	+2	—	—	+9	1.5
2022	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	57	48	7	2	0	0	6	19	2	0	0	146	268	188	455	42	233	33	11	224	29	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	193	161	38	12	1	3	27	47	4	11	3	236	359	379	738	143	312	24	14	337	116	+3	+1	—	—	+5	1.0
2023	25	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	18	9	1	0	0	0	8	3	0	0	0	111	529	111	641		143	17	44	360	134	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	227	60	17	3	10	30	68	8	15	6	264	370	498	868	233	321	25	11	370	141	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	154	175	256	431	103	278	51	2	187	2	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	299	8	8	208	286	352	+3	-1	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	18	18	208	286	352	+6.7	-2.3	1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeter Downs (OGILVIE)	28	34	47	61	47	202/284/345	144	257	7	8	27%	8%	77	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→42	49→50	52→50	48	196/278/340	144	250	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	207/297/365	158	271	19	13	29%	11%	87	+0.8	195/295/355	161	251	20	12	30%	12%	82	+0.4
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA	27	41→40	50	56→55	43	212/287/361	149	289	18	23	32%	8%	82	+0.5	205/283/343	138	285	17	21	32%	8%	76	+0.0	187/271/314	127	259	16	21	33%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	40→41	52→55	57→55	45	217/276/382	165	258	21	26	26%	7%	82	+0.5	223/280/386	163	269	20	22	25%	6%	85	+0.7	215/273/387	171	253	20	20	23%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Kramer Robertson 2023 · AAA	28	43→51	44→45	54→55	50	211/304/325	114	268	12	21	24%	9%	79	+0.3	200/298/284	84	273	7	21	27%	10%	67	-0.5	173/285/221	48	247	3	23	28%	11%	45	-1.8
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	42→45	48→45	53→55	48	215/291/358	143	260	16	16	24%	8%	82	+0.5	217/288/337	120	273	13	24	24%	8%	76	+0.0	211/282/316	105	266	12	28	24%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	41	51→50	49→50	42	220/270/377	157	256	20	12	24%	5%	79	+0.3	219/286/373	154	263	20	9	24%	7%	84	+0.6	177/272/313	136	213	19	8	27%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Tim Lopes 2022 · MLB	28	44→54	47→45	52→55	44	223/282/361	138	282	14	17	26%	7%	79	+0.3	219/286/337	118	300	12	24	29%	8%	74	-0.1	218/291/320	101	306	10	31	30%	9%	68	-0.3
✕Chris Basak 2007 · AAA	28	46	44→45	56→55	45	229/284/354	124	277	11	21	22%	6%	77	+0.1	220/263/330	110	269	10	17	22%	5%	62	-0.9	212/251/314	102	257	9	18	21%	4%	50	-1.1
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	46	50	51→50	42	228/293/393	165	308	16	14	30%	7%	92	+1.2	219/280/368	149	328	16	9	36%	6%	79	+0.3	192/246/312	120	316	14	5	42%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	47	229/290/350	121	273	12	17	21%	7%	79	+0.3	228/308/352	124	288	13	12	24%	10%	87	+0.8	220/310/331	111	279	11	10	23%	11%	81	+0.1
✕Garrett Hampson 2023 · MLB	28	41→51	42→45	56→60	46	202/267/311	109	263	9	22	26%	8%	59	-1.1	242/305/337	95	325	6	18	25%	8%	81	+0.4	244/299/335	90	331	5	17	26%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Kevin Padlo 2023 · MLB	27	37→40	50→55	52→50	39	199/251/350	152	268	19	13	33%	6%	63	-0.8	192/271/329	137	269	15	13	32%	9%	66	-0.6	170/265/300	130	236	14	13	33%	11%	56	-0.8
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	41→51	48→55	53→55	42	207/270/353	146	286	14	12	32%	7%	72	-0.2	199/262/324	125	297	13	22	35%	8%	60	-1.0	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2023 · AAA	28	40	49→50	54→55	35	209/246/360	152	286	16	16	33%	4%	63	-0.9	209/256/338	129	289	13	21	31%	5%	61	-1.0	192/242/305	113	262	12	29	31%	5%	43	-1.5
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	38→37	50	51→50	36	205/243/354	149	265	18	13	31%	4%	60	-1.0	223/281/343	120	285	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	228/298/319	92	290	8	6	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Taylor Motter 2018 · MLB	28	42→50	48→55	53→55	47	218/273/356	139	247	16	22	20%	7%	73	-0.1	187/252/325	138	230	17	13	26%	8%	57	-1.2	214/291/395	181	261	23	5	27%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Kevin Smith 2023 · MLB	27	39→43	48→55	54→50	39	201/255/342	141	280	15	14	33%	6%	63	-0.9	210/253/346	136	306	17	16	36%	5%	63	-0.9	205/243/339	134	297	19	19	37%	4%	54	-0.7
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	40	47→50	48→40	48	204/290/339	135	259	14	5	26%	9%	78	+0.2	218/297/342	124	289	13	7	27%	9%	81	+0.4	195/295/265	70	263	10	0	27%	12%	58	-0.2
✕Trent Giambrone 2021 · AAA	27	39→41	51→50	51→55	41	206/262/361	155	269	19	19	31%	6%	71	-0.3	180/242/269	89	260	8	14	32%	7%	37	-2.6	150/218/214	64	220	5	14	32%	7%	11	-2.1