Jeter Downs — OGILVIE

Jeter DownsSS Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 197 lbs AAA HR +8%BB +8% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.2 · 2026

wRC+†80

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .287 / .351

PA250

HR7

SB8

K%29

BB%8

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

34→34

PWR

48→48

SPD

61→61

EYE

48→48

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	209	183	36	2	2	5	16	46	4	8	5	.197	.276	.311	.587	.115	.226	22	8	.257	55	-11	-0	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	524	475	97	19	2	9	32	133	14	37	10	.204	.274	.309	.584	.105	.263	25	6	.256	54	-27	+3	+0	+2	+15	-0.7
2019	21	A+	2 teams	535	476	105	28	3	22	44	145	6	24	8	.221	.295	.431	.725	.210	.263	27	8	.310	95	-3	+2	+0	+2	+15	1.6
2021	23	AAA	2 teams	477	435	66	8	0	11	31	182	5	22	5	.152	.217	.246	.463	.094	.223	38	6	.206	16	-45	+2	+0	+2	+14	-2.8
2022	24	AAA	3 teams	433	384	60	10	1	17	32	160	14	18	4	.156	.247	.320	.567	.164	.205	37	7	.248	48	-25	+2	-1	+2	+12	-1.1
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	211	181	32	8	1	2	24	61	4	11	3	.177	.287	.265	.552	.088	.250	29	11	.258	56	-11	+1	-1	+2	+6	-0.3
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	274	236	52	13	3	8	21	82	8	15	6	.220	.306	.403	.708	.182	.288	30	8	.308	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	NYY	250	223	47	10	2	7	20	72	5	8	3	.211	.290	.368	.658	.157	.272	29	8	.289	80	-6	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB 20%	NYY	336	299	63	13	2	9	28	95	6	10	3	.211	.291	.358	.649	.147	.274	28	8	.291	81	-7	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.2
2028	30	MLB 33%	NYY	350	312	66	14	2	9	29	99	6	10	3	.212	.291	.356	.647	.144	.274	28	8	.290	80	-8	+1	-3	+1	+10	0.1
2029	31	MLB 43%	NYY	335	298	62	13	2	8	28	95	6	8	2	.208	.289	.346	.635	.138	.274	28	8	.288	79	-8	+1	-3	+1	+9	-0.0
2030	32	MLB 52%	NYY	316	282	59	12	2	8	26	91	5	6	2	.209	.288	.351	.639	.142	.272	29	8	.284	76	-9	+0	-4	+1	+9	-0.2
2031	33	MLB 70%	NYY	286	256	52	11	1	7	23	84	5	4	1	.203	.282	.336	.618	.133	.271	29	8	.279	71	-9	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.5
2032	34	MLB 87%	NYY	243	217	43	9	1	5	20	74	4	3	1	.198	.278	.318	.596	.120	.269	30	8	.272	66	-9	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4779	4257	840	170	24	127	374	1419	92	184	56	.197	.277	.338	.615	.141	.259	30	8	.272	67	-180	+14	-25	+19	+135	-3.8
/ 162G	—			650	579	114	23	3	17	51	193	13	25	8	.197	.277	.335	.612	.138	.259	30	8	.272	67	-25	+2	-3	+3	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	209	172	46	3	3	6	27	32	4	8	5	.267	.379	.424	.804	.157	.288	15	13	.353	128	+7	-0	—	—	+6	1.2
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	524	455	117	23	2	13	52	103	14	37	10	.257	.351	.402	.753	.145	.306	20	10	.339	118	+11	+3	—	—	+15	2.9
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	56	48	16	2	0	5	6	10	2	1	0	.333	.429	.688	1.116	.354	.333	18	11	.478	224	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2019	21	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	479	412	111	33	4	19	54	97	4	23	8	.269	.360	.507	.867	.238	.304	20	11	.373	144	+24	+1	—	—	+14	3.9
2021	23	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	405	357	68	9	0	14	38	131	4	18	3	.190	.276	.333	.609	.143	.249	32	9	.274	68	-15	+2	—	—	+11	-0.1
2021	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	72	57	13	0	0	5	14	18	1	4	2	.228	.389	.491	.880	.263	.235	25	19	.391	157	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	.154	.175	.256	.431	.103	.278	51	2	.187	2	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2022	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	335	284	56	11	1	16	38	99	12	18	4	.197	.317	.412	.729	.215	.235	30	11	.327	109	+3	+2	—	—	+9	1.5
2022	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	57	48	7	2	0	0	6	19	2	0	0	.146	.268	.188	.455	.042	.233	33	11	.224	29	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	193	161	38	12	1	3	27	47	4	11	3	.236	.359	.379	.738	.143	.312	24	14	.337	116	+3	+1	—	—	+5	1.0
2023	25	ROK	FCL Nationals	18	9	1	0	0	0	8	3	0	0	0	.111	.529	.111	.641	.000	.143	17	44	.360	134	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	274	227	60	17	3	10	30	68	8	15	6	.264	.370	.498	.868	.233	.321	25	11	.370	141	+13	+1	—	—	+8	2.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	.154	.175	.256	.431	.103	.278	51	2	.187	2	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeter Downs (OGILVIE)	28	34	48	61	48	.206/.287/.351	.145	.272	7	8	29%	8%	80	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA	27	42→43	50	55	44	.216/.293/.366	.150	.294	18	23	32%	8%	85	+0.7	.212/.292/.349	.137	.297	17	21	32%	9%	80	+0.4	.195/.282/.319	.124	.275	16	21	33%	9%	66	-0.3
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41	51→55	57→55	46	.215/.276/.371	.155	.258	19	25	25%	7%	79	+0.3	.221/.279/.380	.159	.267	19	22	24%	6%	82	+0.5	.213/.271/.381	.168	.251	20	20	24%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	42→51	48→55	52→55	43	.214/.277/.362	.149	.292	15	13	31%	7%	77	+0.1	.202/.267/.327	.125	.300	13	21	35%	8%	63	-0.8	.201/.259/.337	.136	.285	17	26	34%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	36→45	49→50	52→50	48	.195/.277/.338	.143	.247	18	12	29%	9%	72	-0.2	.202/.293/.353	.151	.264	18	13	29%	10%	82	+0.5	.189/.291/.340	.151	.244	19	12	30%	12%	76	+0.1
✕Tyler Greene 2012 · MLB	28	49→51	48→50	59→55	44	.239/.309/.382	.143	.320	15	26	29%	7%	95	+1.4	.231/.286/.369	.138	.322	14	19	31%	6%	82	+0.5	.224/.268/.346	.121	.323	11	13	33%	5%	64	-0.5
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	43→47	48→50	51→50	41	.215/.279/.365	.150	.293	15	15	31%	6%	79	+0.3	.217/.278/.364	.147	.320	16	9	35%	7%	78	+0.2	.194/.249/.314	.120	.315	14	5	41%	6%	49	-0.6
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	43→45	48→45	53→55	48	.221/.296/.363	.142	.269	16	16	24%	8%	85	+0.7	.221/.293/.348	.127	.275	14	24	24%	8%	80	+0.4	.214/.285/.324	.111	.265	13	28	24%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Kramer Robertson 2023 · AAA	28	45→51	44→45	54→55	51	.219/.313/.337	.118	.275	12	21	24%	10%	86	+0.8	.204/.303/.288	.084	.276	7	21	26%	10%	70	-0.3	.178/.290/.225	.047	.253	3	23	27%	11%	47	-1.6
✕Garrett Hampson 2023 · MLB	28	43→53	44→45	55→60	46	.215/.277/.330	.116	.278	11	21	26%	8%	68	-0.5	.236/.300/.330	.094	.316	6	18	25%	8%	77	+0.1	.253/.313/.333	.080	.340	3	18	24%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Brent Lillibridge 2012 · MLB	28	46→53	46→50	56→60	44	.228/.292/.355	.128	.295	14	29	27%	7%	82	+0.5	.218/.272/.345	.127	.296	15	26	30%	6%	70	-0.3	.200/.250/.309	.109	.278	13	26	32%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2023 · AAA	28	40→42	51→50	53→55	35	.212/.249/.373	.161	.284	18	16	32%	4%	68	-0.5	.209/.255/.350	.141	.289	16	21	32%	5%	65	-0.7	.190/.242/.318	.127	.262	16	29	33%	5%	47	-1.3
✕Kevin Padlo 2023 · MLB	27	37→40	49→55	52→50	39	.196/.252/.341	.145	.270	18	13	34%	6%	61	-1.0	.194/.271/.330	.136	.273	15	13	33%	9%	67	-0.5	.172/.266/.302	.130	.240	15	13	33%	11%	57	-0.8
✕Tony Thomas 2014 · AAA	28	39→46	46→50	58→55	38	.199/.248/.332	.133	.272	12	18	31%	5%	56	-1.3	.206/.248/.340	.134	.306	12	13	35%	5%	58	-1.2	.200/.240/.334	.134	.303	12	10	37%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Drew Jackson 2022 · AAA	29	42→45	45	56→55	45	.205/.290/.325	.121	.298	12	25	33%	9%	73	-0.1	.214/.291/.328	.114	.349	12	22	38%	9%	74	-0.1	.184/.261/.252	.069	.349	8	20	45%	8%	38	-0.9
✕Tim Lopes 2022 · MLB	28	44→54	45	52→55	44	.222/.279/.351	.129	.282	12	19	26%	6%	74	-0.1	.217/.280/.338	.121	.295	13	23	29%	7%	72	-0.2	.218/.288/.324	.106	.301	11	31	29%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Nick Dini 2021 · MLB	28	41	51→50	49→50	41	.218/.267/.371	.153	.255	20	12	24%	5%	76	+0.0	.222/.288/.382	.160	.262	21	9	24%	7%	87	+0.8	.177/.274/.321	.144	.209	21	8	26%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Jim Haley 2023 · AAA	28	36→43	51→50	54→55	34	.193/.248/.347	.154	.281	19	19	38%	5%	61	-1.0	.210/.265/.341	.131	.288	15	21	31%	5%	66	-0.6	.210/.266/.328	.118	.281	12	24	29%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	46→50	46→45	50	.191/.285/.319	.128	.261	14	9	31%	11%	70	-0.3	.189/.283/.313	.124	.261	14	10	31%	11%	68	-0.5	.168/.270/.287	.119	.228	14	8	31%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Weston Wilson 2023 · AAA	28	41→43	49→55	51→55	40	.213/.267/.358	.145	.288	18	17	32%	6%	72	-0.2	.219/.288/.394	.175	.287	23	23	31%	9%	91	+1.1	.215/.294/.402	.188	.269	26	25	30%	10%	92	+0.8
✕Chris Owings 2020 · MLB	28	44→54	47→50	49→55	41	.222/.273/.358	.136	.291	15	16	29%	6%	74	-0.1	.216/.278/.360	.144	.298	16	14	31%	7%	77	+0.1	.185/.264/.309	.124	.264	15	11	34%	9%	55	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)