Jeter Downs — OGILVIE

Jeter Downs2B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 R/R 5'10" / 197 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%9

BABIP259

ISO200

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT34

Whiff%

1020.1%

xAVG

100.116

POWER45

Avg EV

1068.0

Bat Spd

4771.0

EYE48

Chase%

1039.8%

SPEED61

Sprint

8428.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-2	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	19	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	209	172	46	3	3	6	27	32	4	8	5	267	379	424	804	157	288	15	13	353	125	+6	-0	—	—	+5	1.1
2018	20	A	Dayton Dragons	—	524	455	117	23	2	13	52	103	14	37	10	257	351	402	753	145	306	20	10	339	116	+10	+3	—	—	+11	2.5
2019	21	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	56	48	16	2	0	5	6	10	2	1	0	333	429	688	1.116	354	333	18	11	478	210	+7	+0	—	—	+1	0.9
2019	21	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	479	412	111	33	4	19	54	97	4	23	8	269	360	507	867	238	304	20	11	373	139	+22	+1	—	—	+10	3.5
2021	23	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	405	357	68	9	0	14	38	131	4	18	3	190	276	333	609	143	249	32	9	274	71	-14	+2	—	—	+9	-0.3
2021	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	72	57	13	0	0	5	14	18	1	4	2	228	389	491	880	263	235	25	19	391	151	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.6
2022	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	154	175	256	431	103	278	51	2	187	13	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2022	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	335	284	56	11	1	16	38	99	12	18	4	197	317	412	729	215	235	30	11	327	108	+3	+2	—	—	+7	1.3
2022	24	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	57	48	7	2	0	0	6	19	2	0	0	146	268	188	455	42	233	33	11	224	38	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	193	161	38	12	1	3	27	47	4	11	3	236	359	379	738	143	312	24	14	337	114	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.9
2023	25	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	18	9	1	0	0	0	8	3	0	0	0	111	529	111	641		143	17	44	360	130	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2024	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	227	60	17	3	10	30	68	8	15	6	264	370	498	868	233	321	25	11	370	137	+12	+1	—	—	+6	1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	154	175	256	431	103	278	51	2	187	13	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	209	183	36	2	2	5	16	46	4	8	5	197	276	311	587	115	218	22	8	257	60	-10	-0	—	—	+5	-0.6
2018	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	524	475	95	19	2	9	32	142	14	37	10	200	271	305	576	105	259	27	6	252	57	-27	+3	—	—	+11	-1.2
2019	21	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	56	50	14	2	0	4	4	13	2	1	0	280	357	560	917	280	301	23	7	390	150	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2019	21	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	479	426	91	27	3	17	40	131	4	23	8	214	287	411	698	197	249	27	8	299	88	-7	+1	—	—	+10	0.5
2021	23	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	405	369	54	7	0	7	26	154	4	18	3	146	211	222	433	76	215	38	6	198	20	-38	+2	—	—	+9	-2.8
2022	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	41	39	6	1	0	1	1	21	0	0	0	154	175	256	431	103	278	51	2	184	10	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2022	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	335	296	44	7	1	12	26	117	12	18	4	149	246	301	546	152	188	35	8	242	50	-20	+2	—	—	+7	-1.1
2023	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	193	169	30	8	1	2	19	58	4	11	3	178	276	272	548	95	253	30	10	252	57	-10	+1	—	—	+4	-0.5
2023	25	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	18	12	1	0	0	0	5	4	0	0	0	83	353	83	436		125	22	28	262	63	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	236	51	13	3	7	21	82	8	15	6	216	302	386	687	169	267	30	8	295	86	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
2017	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	209	183	36	2	2	5	16	46	4	8	5	197	276	311	587	115	226	22	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	209	172	46	3	3	6	27	32	4	8	5	267	379	424	804	157	288	15	13	353	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	524	475	95	19	2	9	32	142	14	37	10	200	271	305	576	105	265	27	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	524	455	117	23	2	13	52	103	14	37	10	257	351	402	753	145	306	20	10	339	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	535	476	106	28	3	22	44	144	6	24	8	223	297	433	729	210	265	27	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	535	460	127	35	4	24	60	107	6	24	8	276	367	526	893	250	307	20	11	384	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	477	435	64	8	0	9	31	181	5	22	5	147	212	228	440	80	220	38	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	477	414	81	9	0	19	52	149	5	22	5	196	293	355	648	159	247	31	11	291	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	433	384	57	9	1	15	32	159	14	18	4	148	240	294	534	146	197	37	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	433	371	69	14	1	17	45	139	14	18	4	186	298	367	664	181	239	32	10	301	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	211	181	31	8	1	2	24	62	4	11	3	171	282	260	542	88	244	29	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	211	170	39	12	1	3	35	50	4	11	3	229	373	365	738	135	303	24	17	339	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	236	51	13	3	7	21	82	8	15	6	216	302	386	687	169	286	30	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	227	60	17	3	10	30	68	8	15	6	264	370	498	868	233	321	25	11	370	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	209	187	36	2	2	5	16	46	4	8	5	193	276	305	581	112	218	22	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	20	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	524	473	95	19	2	9	32	142	14	37	10	201	271	307	577	106	259	27	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	535	480	106	28	3	22	44	144	6	24	8	221	297	429	726	208	254	27	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	477	438	64	8	0	9	31	181	5	22	5	146	212	226	438	80	215	38	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	433	384	57	9	1	15	32	159	14	18	4	148	240	294	534	146	198	37	7	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	211	181	31	8	1	2	24	62	4	11	3	171	282	260	542	88	242	29	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	243	51	13	3	7	21	82	8	15	6	210	302	374	676	165	267	30	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	211	181	31	8	1	2	24	62	4	11	3	171	282	260	542	88	242	29	11	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	274	243	51	13	3	7	21	82	8	15	6	210	302	374	676	165	267	30	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	22	20	4	1	0	1	2	6	0	1	0	200	273	400	673	200	258	27	9	283	78	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.3
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						259	50	0	273	78	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	NYY	33%	342	304	62	13	2	8	29	91	6	10	3	204	286	339	625	135	261	27	8	285	79	-8	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	NYY	46%	354	315	66	14	2	9	30	94	6	9	3	210	291	352	643	143	262	27	8	286	80	-9	+1	-3	+1	+8	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	339	302	62	13	2	8	28	90	6	8	3	205	286	341	627	136	262	27	8	284	78	-9	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	NYY	33%	112	100	21	4	1	3	9	30	2	3	1	210	288	360	648	150	262	27	8	276	79	-3	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	NYY	46%	162	144	30	6	1	4	14	43	3	4	1	208	292	347	639	139	264	27	9	277	80	-4	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	182	162	34	7	1	5	15	48	3	4	1	210	289	358	647	148	263	26	8	275	78	-5	+0	-2	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	497	445	91	18	3	13	39	142	8	11	3	204	280	346	627	142	265	29	8	269	65	-16	+1	-5	+3	+11	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	120	24	4	17	51	186	10	14	4	206	281	349	630	143	268	29	8	269	65	-20	+1	-6	+4	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3720	3311	634	128	18	95	289	1097	73	163	50	191	271	327	598	136	250	29	8	264	65	-31	+2	-9	+5	+24	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	111	22	3	17	50	192	13	28	9	192	271	328	599	136	250	30	8	264	65	-18	+1	-6	+3	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.7	481	12	12	207	285	345	+5	-1	0.6	0.6
/162	664	16	17	+6.9	-1.4	0.9	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeter Downs (OGILVIE)	28	34	45	61	48	201/283/339	138	258	6	8	27%	8%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41	49→50	57→55	46	214/274/360	146	257	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	219/277/367	148	268	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.1	209/267/365	156	250	18	20	24%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA	27	42	49→50	56→55	44	214/290/357	143	288	17	23	31%	8%	84	+0.1	208/287/335	127	289	15	21	31%	9%	78	-0.3	192/278/307	115	267	14	21	31%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	43→45	47→45	53→55	49	218/294/356	138	264	15	16	23%	8%	84	+0.2	221/293/346	125	274	14	24	24%	8%	82	-0.0	215/286/326	111	267	12	28	23%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Rylan Bannon 2023 · MLB	27	37→44	47→50	52→50	48	191/275/320	128	248	15	12	29%	9%	70	-0.8	201/294/345	144	266	17	13	29%	11%	82	+0.0	187/289/332	145	245	18	12	30%	12%	76	-0.3
✕Kramer Robertson 2023 · AAA	28	44→51	42→40	54→55	52	215/312/321	106	274	10	21	24%	10%	84	+0.2	203/304/283	80	278	6	21	27%	10%	73	-0.6	177/289/221	44	253	3	23	27%	11%	53	-1.8
✕Camden Duzenack 2023 · AAA	28	39→36	49→50	51→50	37	207/247/351	144	269	17	13	30%	4%	65	-1.2	231/288/355	124	292	12	10	24%	6%	82	-0.0	243/308/345	102	303	9	6	22%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Garrett Stubbs 2021 · MLB	28	46	44→45	54→50	48	225/289/345	119	270	11	17	21%	7%	80	-0.2	227/309/347	120	288	12	12	24%	10%	88	+0.4	219/308/324	105	279	10	10	23%	11%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2023 · AAA	28	40→42	48→50	54→55	36	210/247/357	147	281	16	16	31%	4%	67	-1.1	212/259/341	129	290	14	21	31%	5%	68	-1.0	196/246/312	117	265	13	29	30%	5%	53	-1.4
✕Chris Basak 2007 · AAA	28	46	43→45	56→55	46	227/283/343	116	276	10	21	22%	6%	76	-0.4	217/262/321	104	268	9	17	22%	5%	63	-1.3	209/248/303	94	257	8	18	21%	4%	52	-1.3
✕Jim Haley 2023 · AAA	28	36→44	48→50	55	35	191/246/331	140	277	17	19	37%	5%	61	-1.5	208/264/326	118	286	12	21	30%	6%	66	-1.1	205/262/312	107	278	10	24	29%	5%	59	-1.1
✕Taylor Motter 2018 · MLB	28	43→50	47→55	53→55	48	217/275/352	135	248	15	22	20%	7%	76	-0.4	187/252/313	126	230	15	13	25%	8%	59	-1.6	208/287/374	165	259	20	5	27%	10%	85	+0.1
✕JaCoby Jones 2020 · MLB	28	45→47	49→50	52→50	42	225/290/384	159	305	15	14	30%	7%	89	+0.5	217/278/360	143	326	15	9	36%	7%	80	-0.2	190/245/303	113	313	13	5	41%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Trent Durrington 2005 · MLB	29	46→45	48→40	58→60	47	233/290/382	149	282	15	18	23%	7%	88	+0.5	234/293/321	87	299	7	34	23%	7%	75	-0.5	227/287/294	66	294	4	40	23%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Garrett Hampson 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	44→45	56→60	46	216/280/333	117	279	11	22	26%	8%	73	-0.6	243/307/339	96	327	6	18	25%	8%	84	+0.2	243/297/329	86	328	4	17	26%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Trent Giambrone 2021 · AAA	27	38→41	50→45	51→55	41	205/261/356	151	268	19	19	31%	6%	72	-0.7	178/243/265	87	259	8	14	32%	7%	45	-2.7	148/217/207	59	219	4	14	32%	7%	20	-2.1
✕Tim Lopes 2022 · MLB	28	44→54	45	52→55	44	217/276/344	127	279	12	17	26%	7%	75	-0.5	218/284/336	118	299	12	24	29%	8%	76	-0.4	218/289/324	106	303	11	31	30%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Andrés Alvarez 2023 · AA	26	39→31	49→45	56→50	45	201/278/345	144	282	17	20	34%	9%	76	-0.4	201/264/313	112	285	11	12	32%	7%	63	-1.3	191/251/288	96	270	9	8	31%	6%	50	-1.3
✕Tony Thomas 2013 · AAA	27	40→46	45→50	57→55	39	201/250/325	124	271	12	19	30%	5%	60	-1.6	202/247/330	128	288	11	14	32%	5%	60	-1.6	198/241/328	130	285	10	12	33%	4%	55	-1.5
✕Adam Engel 2020 · MLB	28	44→48	45→50	52→60	39	218/274/342	124	296	11	16	30%	5%	74	-0.6	235/293/378	143	305	15	19	27%	6%	89	+0.5	203/276/332	129	289	14	30	33%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Michael Gigliotti 2023 · AA	27	41	45→40	57→55	49	202/300/325	123	283	13	26	31%	10%	81	-0.1	215/309/320	105	287	9	16	26%	10%	82	+0.0	206/316/294	88	270	5	13	23%	12%	78	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps