Jeter Downs
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 392 | .190/.310/.380 | 16 | 18 | 54 | — | .153/.254/.306 | |
| 2022 | 24 | MLBBOS | 41 | .154/.175/.256 | 1 | 0 | 11 | -0.3 | ||
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/ROKWSH | 211 | .229/.373/.365 | 3 | 11 | 60 | — | .176/.292/.263 | |
| 2024 | 26 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 274 | .264/.370/.498 | 10 | 15 | 89 | — | .216/.302/.386 | |
| 2025 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 209 | 172 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 267 | 379 | 424 | 804 | 157 | 288 | 15 | 13 | 353 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 524 | 455 | 117 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 103 | 14 | 37 | 10 | 257 | 351 | 402 | 753 | 145 | 306 | 20 | 10 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 56 | 48 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 429 | 688 | 1.116 | 354 | 333 | 18 | 11 | 478 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 479 | 412 | 111 | 33 | 4 | 19 | 54 | 97 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 269 | 360 | 507 | 867 | 238 | 304 | 20 | 11 | 373 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 405 | 357 | 68 | 9 | 0 | 14 | 38 | 131 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 190 | 276 | 333 | 609 | 143 | 249 | 32 | 9 | 274 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 72 | 57 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 389 | 491 | 880 | 263 | 235 | 25 | 19 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 41 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 175 | 256 | 431 | 103 | 278 | 51 | 2 | 187 | 11 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 335 | 284 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 99 | 12 | 18 | 4 | 197 | 317 | 412 | 729 | 215 | 235 | 30 | 11 | 327 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Indios de Mayaguez | — | 57 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 268 | 188 | 455 | 42 | 233 | 33 | 11 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 193 | 161 | 38 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 47 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 236 | 359 | 379 | 738 | 143 | 312 | 24 | 14 | 337 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 529 | 111 | 641 | 143 | 17 | 44 | 360 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 274 | 227 | 60 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 68 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 264 | 370 | 498 | 868 | 233 | 321 | 25 | 11 | 370 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 41 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 175 | 256 | 431 | 103 | 278 | 51 | 2 | 187 | 13 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 209 | 183 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 197 | 276 | 311 | 587 | 115 | 220 | 22 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 524 | 474 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 142 | 14 | 37 | 10 | 205 | 276 | 310 | 587 | 105 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 56 | 50 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 320 | 393 | 660 | 1.053 | 340 | 312 | 23 | 7 | 407 | 162 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 479 | 425 | 93 | 27 | 3 | 18 | 41 | 131 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 219 | 294 | 424 | 717 | 205 | 256 | 27 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 405 | 368 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 154 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 155 | 221 | 239 | 460 | 84 | 226 | 38 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 41 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 175 | 256 | 431 | 103 | 278 | 51 | 2 | 184 | 11 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 335 | 294 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 28 | 117 | 12 | 18 | 4 | 153 | 254 | 306 | 561 | 153 | 198 | 35 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 193 | 168 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 58 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 185 | 286 | 280 | 566 | 95 | 262 | 30 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 353 | 83 | 436 | 118 | 22 | 28 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 274 | 236 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 82 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 216 | 302 | 386 | 687 | 169 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 209 | 183 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 197 | 276 | 311 | 587 | 115 | 226 | 22 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 209 | 172 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 32 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 267 | 379 | 424 | 804 | 157 | 288 | 15 | 13 | 353 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 524 | 474 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 142 | 14 | 37 | 10 | 205 | 276 | 310 | 587 | 105 | 272 | 27 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 524 | 455 | 117 | 23 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 103 | 14 | 37 | 10 | 257 | 351 | 402 | 753 | 145 | 306 | 20 | 10 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 475 | 108 | 29 | 3 | 22 | 45 | 144 | 6 | 24 | 8 | 227 | 302 | 440 | 742 | 213 | 272 | 27 | 8 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 460 | 127 | 35 | 4 | 24 | 60 | 107 | 6 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 367 | 526 | 893 | 250 | 307 | 20 | 11 | 384 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 434 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 181 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 154 | 221 | 237 | 458 | 83 | 233 | 38 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 477 | 414 | 81 | 9 | 0 | 19 | 52 | 149 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 196 | 293 | 355 | 648 | 159 | 247 | 31 | 11 | 291 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 433 | 383 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 159 | 14 | 18 | 4 | 154 | 247 | 303 | 549 | 149 | 208 | 37 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 433 | 371 | 69 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 45 | 139 | 14 | 18 | 4 | 186 | 298 | 367 | 664 | 181 | 239 | 32 | 10 | 301 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 211 | 180 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 62 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 178 | 292 | 267 | 559 | 89 | 254 | 29 | 12 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 211 | 170 | 39 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 50 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 229 | 373 | 365 | 738 | 135 | 303 | 24 | 17 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 274 | 236 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 82 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 216 | 302 | 386 | 687 | 169 | 286 | 30 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 274 | 227 | 60 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 68 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 264 | 370 | 498 | 868 | 233 | 321 | 25 | 11 | 370 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 209 | 187 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 46 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 193 | 276 | 305 | 581 | 112 | 220 | 22 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 524 | 472 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 142 | 14 | 37 | 10 | 206 | 276 | 311 | 588 | 106 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 479 | 108 | 29 | 3 | 22 | 45 | 144 | 6 | 24 | 8 | 225 | 302 | 436 | 739 | 211 | 262 | 27 | 8 | 317 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 437 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 181 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 153 | 221 | 236 | 457 | 82 | 226 | 38 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 433 | 383 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 33 | 159 | 14 | 18 | 4 | 154 | 247 | 303 | 549 | 149 | 207 | 37 | 8 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 211 | 180 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 62 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 178 | 292 | 267 | 559 | 89 | 250 | 29 | 12 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 274 | 243 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 82 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 210 | 302 | 374 | 676 | 165 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 274 | 243 | 51 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 82 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 210 | 302 | 374 | 676 | 165 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 175 | 256 | 431 | 103 | 278 | 51 | 2 | 187 | 64 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 618 | 95 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 175 | 257 | 432 | 104 | 277 | 51 | 2 | 187 | 64 | -67 | +0 | -11 | +25 | +14 | -4.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2663 | 2365 | 450 | 90 | 12 | 69 | 205 | 816 | 55 | 135 | 41 | 190 | 270 | 326 | 596 | 136 | 252 | 31 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 110 | 22 | 3 | 17 | 50 | 199 | 13 | 33 | 10 | 191 | 270 | 328 | 597 | 137 | 253 | 31 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -67 | +0 | -11 | +25 | +14 | -4.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 274 PAwOBA .370 → .300 (−70)K% 24.8% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.82% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.87% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 17.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.69% | ÷1.072 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.29% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .370 → .300; ISO .233 → .178; BABIP .321 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 193 PAwOBA .330 → .259 (−71)K% 24.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.35% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.99% | ÷0.956 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.30% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.951 | ×1.033 | 17.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.137 | ×0.830 | ×0.951 | ×1.033 | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.951 | ×1.033 | 0.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .330 → .259; ISO .143 → .100; BABIP .312 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Nationals · 18 PAwOBA .376 → .250 (−127)K% 16.7% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.011 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 44.44% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 25.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 13.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 107, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .376 → .250; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .143 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 335 PAwOBA .320 → .252 (−68)K% 29.6% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.55% | ÷1.013 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.34% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.58% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.14% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 13.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.95% | ÷1.179 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.65% | ÷0.939 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .320 → .252; ISO .215 → .160; BABIP .235 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 405 PAwOBA .270 → .207 (−63)K% 32.3% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.35% | ÷1.021 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.91% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.98% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.318 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.45% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 105, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .207; ISO .143 → .084; BABIP .249 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 479 PAwOBA .368 → .306 (−62)K% 20.3% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.25% | ÷0.991 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.06% | ÷0.948 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.46% | ÷1.043 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 14.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.48% | ÷0.935 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 8.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.049 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.03% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 5.88% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 109, 2B 87, 3B 110, K 98, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .368 → .306; ISO .238 → .209; BABIP .304 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AATulsa Drillers · 56 PAwOBA .465 → .407 (−57)K% 17.9% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 3.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.68% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 22.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.048 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 4.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.16% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 12.15% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 110, 3B 85, K 91, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .465 → .407; ISO .354 → .317; BABIP .333 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ADayton Dragons · 524 PAwOBA .331 → .259 (−72)K% 19.7% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.66% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷1.097 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.44% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 19.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.53% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.69% | ÷1.103 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.76% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 97, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .331 → .259; ISO .145 → .112; BABIP .306 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .