Andrés Alvarez — OGILVIE

Andrés AlvarezSS Venados de Mazatlan

Age 29 R/R 5'8" / 175 lbs INTL Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .267 / .311

PA250

HR5

SB5

K%28

BB%7

ISO111

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	ROK	2 teams	—	169	152	23	3	1	1	11	47	5	3	2	151	232	204	436	53	212	28	7	200	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	ROK	2 teams	—	169	146	33	5	2	1	17	33	5	3	2	226	327	308	636	82	286	20	10	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+	2 teams	—	202	186	45	11	0	4	12	63	2	10	3	242	295	366	661	124	342	31	6	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	A+	2 teams	—	202	178	49	9	1	6	20	42	2	10	3	275	355	438	793	163	328	21	10	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	443	388	66	12	1	15	44	167	5	21	1	170	263	322	585	152	242	38	10	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	443	368	81	13	2	20	64	123	5	21	1	220	343	429	773	209	265	28	14	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	589	541	89	18	2	9	29	195	11	11	5	165	222	255	477	91	233	33	5	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AA	2 teams	—	589	526	130	25	1	13	44	140	11	11	5	247	318	373	691	125	309	24	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	470	418	92	12	4	10	37	152	4	18	3	220	290	340	629	120	317	32	8	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	470	409	114	19	6	13	46	105	4	18	3	279	357	450	807	171	344	22	10	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	269	238	63	9	2	2	14	53	6	9	0	265	322	345	666	80	324	20	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	269	238	63	9	2	2	14	53	6	9	0	265	322	345	666	80	324	20	5	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	PIT	—	250	227	46	8	1	5	18	70	3	5	2	203	270	313	583	110	267	28	7	264	60	-11	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	PIT	22%	298	271	56	10	2	6	22	82	3	5	2	207	274	325	598	118	268	28	7	268	63	-12	+0	-2	+3	+8	-0.3
2028	31	MLB	PIT	34%	302	274	56	10	2	6	22	83	3	4	2	204	271	321	592	117	268	27	7	268	63	-13	+0	-3	+3	+9	-0.4
2027	30	MLB	PIT	22%	64	58	11	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	190	266	276	541	86	267	28	8	258	56	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	31	MLB	PIT	34%	103	93	19	3	1	2	8	28	1	1	1	204	275	323	597	118	267	27	8	259	56	-5	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	167	151	30	5	1	3	13	46	2	2	1	199	271	305	576	106	262	28	8	258	56	-8	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	117	19	4	12	51	179	8	8	4	199	272	306	579	107	262	28	8	258	56	-32	+0	-5	+7	+18	-1.3
Career	—			—	2992	2695	536	93	15	58	209	912	42	86	20	199	267	309	576	110	273	30	7	229	33	-225	+9	-5	+32	+85	-10.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	116	20	3	13	45	198	9	19	4	198	266	309	575	111	272	30	7	229	33	-49	+2	-1	+7	+18	-2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	16	14	2	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		200	25	12	200	12	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2019	22	ROK	GCL Pirates	—	153	132	31	5	2	1	15	29	5	3	2	235	336	326	661	91	294	19	10	305	92	-1	-0	—	—	+4	0.3
2021	24	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	158	139	40	9	0	6	17	38	1	10	2	288	369	482	851	194	354	24	11	375	145	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.4
2021	24	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	44	39	9	0	1	0	3	4	1	0	1	231	302	282	584	51	257	9	7	266	61	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	443	368	81	13	2	20	64	123	5	21	1	220	343	429	773	209	265	28	14	342	120	+10	+4	—	—	+13	2.7
2023	26	AA	Altoona Curve	—	380	339	73	18	1	8	30	98	5	4	3	215	289	345	634	130	273	26	8	283	75	-11	-0	—	—	+11	-0.0
2023	26	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	209	187	57	7	0	5	14	42	6	7	2	305	372	422	794	118	369	20	7	355	130	+7	+1	—	—	+6	1.4
2024	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	286	247	67	10	4	6	31	69	4	7	3	271	362	417	779	146	353	24	11	346	123	+7	+0	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	27	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	184	162	47	9	2	7	15	36	0	11	0	290	350	500	850	210	331	20	8	359	133	+7	+2	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	28	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	269	238	63	9	2	2	14	53	6	9	0	265	322	345	666	80	324	20	5	291	81	-6	+2	—	—	+8	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	417	8	7	205	269	317	+4	+6	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	13	11	205	269	317	+7.1	+9.6	-0.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrés Alvarez (OGILVIE)	29	30	42	51	49	201/267/311	110	267	5	5	28%	7%	60	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Rabago 2022 · AAA	29	38	40	47→55	43	190/255/276	86	266	8	13	31%	7%	45	-2.1	197/261/293	96	305	9	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	152/225/219	67	257	5	5	40%	6%	15	-1.2
✕David Matranga 2007 · AAA	30	37	45	47→50	42	193/259/309	116	250	13	9	28%	6%	56	-1.3	213/284/337	124	283	14	11	28%	7%	73	-0.1	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	44→45	48→30	43	196/259/308	112	257	13	6	29%	7%	56	-1.3	213/261/333	120	273	13	5	26%	6%	62	-0.9	210/254/324	114	266	12	1	25%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Clint Sammons 2012 · AAA	29	34→44	45→40	44→45	42	182/239/296	114	224	14	8	26%	6%	44	-2.1	203/247/342	139	274	18	8	32%	5%	59	-1.1	156/183/282	126	198	20	0	34%	2%	14	-1.0
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	179/241/285	105	253	11	13	33%	7%	42	-2.3	189/249/278	89	270	8	15	31%	7%	43	-2.2	160/223/224	65	230	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA	29	37	45	47→40	39	194/245/315	121	274	14	4	34%	6%	51	-1.7	195/251/321	126	280	15	5	34%	7%	55	-1.4	184/288/333	149	265	21	8	37%	11%	73	-0.0
✕Jake Wald 2010 · AAA	29	41→42	41→45	51→50	41	201/265/300	99	287	8	10	31%	7%	56	-1.3	188/252/274	86	318	7	8	40%	7%	43	-2.2	130/202/174	44	264	1	2	47%	8%	-5	-2.2
✕Luis Flores 2016 · AAA	29	40	44→40	48→45	46	203/266/309	106	246	12	6	23%	7%	59	-1.1	204/251/334	130	246	14	6	23%	5%	58	-1.2	202/244/362	160	224	18	0	20%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2015 · AAA	29	43	43→45	47→50	37	217/249/317	99	271	12	8	25%	3%	52	-1.6	223/267/352	129	282	15	14	26%	5%	69	-0.4	216/263/349	133	256	17	24	23%	4%	63	-0.2
✕Drew Jackson 2021 · AAA	28	39→43	43→45	49→55	40	193/262/301	108	283	11	17	34%	7%	55	-1.4	210/295/327	117	333	12	25	37%	9%	76	+0.0	198/294/307	109	322	11	32	38%	10%	68	-0.2
✕José Briceño 2022 · AAA	29	38	48→45	50→45	38	200/242/340	140	254	16	10	29%	4%	56	-1.3	209/250/351	142	266	18	6	29%	4%	63	-0.9	191/229/327	136	233	21	0	29%	3%	44	-0.6
✕Allan de San Miguel 2017 · AAA	29	41	42→45	48→40	43	203/253/305	102	245	9	8	22%	5%	51	-1.7	205/261/303	98	273	8	8	27%	5%	55	-1.4	166/226/228	62	232	3	0	28%	4%	17	-0.8
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	43→45	54→50	41	184/246/294	109	250	11	13	30%	6%	46	-2.0	193/261/313	120	273	13	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	153/230/258	105	221	12	16	35%	6%	28	-1.2
✕Anthony Bemboom 2019 · AAA	29	40	40→45	45	46	197/266/289	91	260	8	5	26%	8%	53	-1.5	205/269/325	120	267	13	5	27%	7%	64	-0.8	209/279/326	117	268	12	2	26%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Ryan Budde 2009 · MLB	29	41	42→45	48→40	40	203/254/309	106	270	9	8	28%	5%	53	-1.5	193/252/284	91	286	8	6	33%	7%	46	-2.0	176/244/251	75	269	8	2	35%	8%	32	-1.3
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	39→44	47→50	49→45	40	202/251/335	133	253	16	9	27%	5%	59	-1.1	204/249/337	133	259	14	9	26%	5%	58	-1.2	184/221/327	143	224	14	6	25%	4%	39	-1.1
✕Dan Butler 2016 · MLB	29	43→38	39→45	45→40	45	205/267/297	91	264	6	3	24%	6%	56	-1.3	222/287/318	96	286	7	3	23%	7%	69	-0.4	216/286/307	90	275	7	0	23%	8%	63	-0.3
✕Angelo Castellano 2023 · AAA	28	37→47	41→45	47→50	43	188/251/276	89	245	9	12	27%	7%	43	-2.2	224/284/365	141	271	17	14	23%	7%	80	+0.4	232/294/393	161	267	21	15	22%	8%	88	+0.4