Cooper Bowman
2B Durham Bulls| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AAOAK | 523 | .262/.355/.419 | 12 | 43 | 75 | — | .221/.294/.347 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/ROKOAK | 316 | .232/.327/.376 | 6 | 22 | 62 | — | .207/.282/.322 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAATB | 70 | .148/.257/.213 | 0 | 6 | 5 | — | .111/.200/.159 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBTB | 10 | .192/.267/.291 | 0 | 1 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBTB | 50 | .193/.268/.293 | 1 | 2 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 112 | 93 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 237 | 355 | 441 | 795 | 204 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 351 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 414 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 135 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 215 | 333 | 341 | 673 | 126 | 285 | 27 | 13 | 308 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 319 | 271 | 71 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 68 | 6 | 35 | 3 | 262 | 361 | 435 | 796 | 173 | 318 | 21 | 11 | 350 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 15 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 333 | 733 | 83 | 375 | 27 | 7 | 351 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 152 | 133 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 218 | 288 | 308 | 596 | 90 | 296 | 24 | 8 | 262 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 371 | 313 | 88 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 46 | 75 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 281 | 382 | 466 | 848 | 185 | 330 | 20 | 12 | 371 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 301 | 259 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 71 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 236 | 329 | 375 | 703 | 139 | 297 | 24 | 11 | 313 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 286 | 417 | 702 | 250 | 250 | 33 | 7 | 289 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 70 | 61 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 148 | 257 | 213 | 470 | 66 | 265 | 39 | 10 | 229 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 112 | 96 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 188 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 146 | 245 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 433 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 170 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 182 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 99 | 260 | 34 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 319 | 282 | 61 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 85 | 6 | 35 | 3 | 216 | 294 | 355 | 649 | 138 | 274 | 27 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 250 | 583 | 83 | 286 | 40 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 152 | 136 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 206 | 260 | 287 | 547 | 81 | 276 | 28 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 371 | 326 | 74 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 95 | 5 | 35 | 5 | 227 | 308 | 371 | 679 | 144 | 276 | 26 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 301 | 268 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 83 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 209 | 281 | 317 | 599 | 108 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 286 | 417 | 702 | 250 | 167 | 47 | 7 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 70 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 159 | 359 | 48 | 239 | 46 | 7 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 112 | 96 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 188 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 146 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 112 | 93 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 237 | 355 | 441 | 795 | 204 | 288 | 23 | 10 | 351 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 433 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 170 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 182 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 99 | 269 | 34 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 414 | 89 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 135 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 215 | 333 | 341 | 673 | 126 | 285 | 27 | 13 | 308 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 294 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 90 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 218 | 299 | 354 | 653 | 136 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 334 | 283 | 74 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 72 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 261 | 363 | 431 | 794 | 170 | 320 | 22 | 11 | 350 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 462 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 138 | 6 | 43 | 6 | 221 | 294 | 342 | 636 | 121 | 287 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 523 | 446 | 117 | 26 | 4 | 12 | 58 | 112 | 6 | 43 | 6 | 262 | 355 | 419 | 774 | 157 | 320 | 21 | 11 | 340 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 280 | 57 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 90 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 204 | 278 | 314 | 593 | 111 | 279 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 316 | 271 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 76 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 232 | 327 | 376 | 703 | 144 | 295 | 24 | 10 | 312 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 70 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 159 | 359 | 48 | 226 | 46 | 7 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 70 | 61 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 148 | 257 | 213 | 470 | 66 | 265 | 39 | 10 | 229 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 112 | 97 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 186 | 291 | 330 | 621 | 144 | 245 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 493 | 436 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 170 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 181 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 99 | 260 | 34 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 334 | 297 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 90 | 8 | 38 | 3 | 215 | 299 | 350 | 649 | 135 | 275 | 27 | 8 | 283 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 470 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 138 | 6 | 43 | 6 | 217 | 294 | 336 | 630 | 119 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 284 | 57 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 90 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 201 | 278 | 310 | 588 | 109 | 269 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 70 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 159 | 359 | 48 | 239 | 46 | 7 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 470 | 102 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 138 | 6 | 43 | 6 | 217 | 294 | 336 | 630 | 119 | 276 | 26 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 284 | 57 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 90 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 201 | 278 | 310 | 588 | 109 | 269 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 70 | 63 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 111 | 200 | 159 | 359 | 48 | 239 | 46 | 7 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 10% | 200 | 179 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 191 | 265 | 291 | 557 | 101 | 258 | 28 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -10 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 99 | 261 | 30 | 10 | 255 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 31% | 161 | 145 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 192 | 266 | 292 | 559 | 101 | 259 | 29 | 8 | 255 | 59 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 31% | 50 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 268 | 293 | 560 | 99 | 262 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 50 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 280 | 311 | 591 | 111 | 267 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 64 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 585 | 117 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 182 | 13 | 26 | 0 | 200 | 280 | 311 | 591 | 111 | 267 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 64 | -32 | +5 | -3 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2114 | 1868 | 373 | 79 | 13 | 35 | 171 | 631 | 39 | 179 | 20 | 200 | 281 | 312 | 593 | 112 | 276 | 30 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -13 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 115 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 53 | 194 | 12 | 55 | 6 | 200 | 282 | 314 | 595 | 113 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -32 | +4 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAADurham Bulls · 70 PAwOBA .224 → .176 (−47)K% 38.6% → 46.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 13.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 9.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .224 → .176; ISO .066 → .050; BABIP .265 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 301 PAwOBA .308 → .263 (−45)K% 23.6% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.59% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.63% | ÷0.970 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.052 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 19.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 5.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.033 | 1.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.19% | ÷1.183 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .308 → .263; ISO .139 → .109; BABIP .297 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 15 PAwOBA .302 → .189 (−112)K% 33.3% → 48.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 48.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 4.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 9.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 9.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .302 → .189; ISO .250 → .155; BABIP .250 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMidland RockHounds · 371 PAwOBA .366 → .297 (−69)K% 20.2% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.22% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.060 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.012 | 20.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.170 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×1.012 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×1.012 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.04% | ÷0.940 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.34% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 112, 2B 134, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .366 → .297; ISO .185 → .152; BABIP .330 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 152 PAwOBA .259 → .234 (−25)K% 24.3% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.34% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.79% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×0.996 | ×1.048 | 19.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.048 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.048 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .259 → .234; ISO .090 → .076; BABIP .296 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 319 PAwOBA .345 → .285 (−60)K% 21.3% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.32% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.29% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.027 | 18.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.37% | ÷1.011 | ×0.840 | ×0.960 | ×1.027 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | ×1.027 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.38% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .345 → .285; ISO .173 → .146; BABIP .318 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 15 PAwOBA .343 → .232 (−111)K% 26.7% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 13.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 9.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 8.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .343 → .232; ISO .083 → .051; BABIP .375 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 493 PAwOBA .304 → .250 (−54)K% 27.4% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.38% | ÷1.011 | ×1.270 | — | — | 34.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.98% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 20.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.005 | ×1.012 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷0.944 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.38% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 100, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .304 → .250; ISO .126 → .104; BABIP .285 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).