Jared Oliva

RF Durham Bulls

Age 31 R/R 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.797 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AASEA	248	.294/.381/.463	7	37	97	—	.253/.324/.403
2025	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	458	.251/.332/.410	12	64	70	—	.212/.275/.324
2026	30	AAATB	89	.269/.337/.359	1	14	63	—	.247/.291/.321
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBTB	12	.231/.292/.343	0	1	78	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBTB	31	.227/.287/.334	1	2	75	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.797First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed94

Max EV76

Z-Con%65

K%52

Whiff%45

BB%40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDairon Blanco (age 30) · Greg Allen (age 31) · Darren Ford (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .292 / .343

PA12

HR0

K%25

BB%8

BABIP291

ISO106

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2020-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

100.183

POWER50

Avg EV

1076.0

Bat Spd

4670.9

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2020

Service 0.797 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	22	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	396	109	24	4	9	40	91	11	33	8	275	358	424	782	149	332	20	9	346	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	507	447	124	24	6	6	42	104	11	36	10	277	354	398	752	121	347	21	8	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	109	93	29	11	2	0	14	19	2	11	1	312	413	473	886	161	392	17	13	395	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	170	2	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	43	40	7	2	0	0	3	10	0	2	0	175	233	225	458	50	233	23	7	214	18	-4	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.8
2021	25	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	249	225	56	12	4	2	19	67	5	10	3	249	321	364	686	116	346	27	8	311	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	123	115	27	3	2	3	4	31	2	1	3	235	273	374	647	139	293	25	3	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	349	319	85	22	3	8	24	77	4	21	4	266	326	429	755	163	326	22	7	334	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	191	167	45	10	2	1	16	35	4	14	5	269	348	371	719	102	333	18	8	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	284	74	12	5	8	31	68	7	16	6	261	347	423	769	162	317	21	10	342	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	214	63	7	4	7	24	45	6	37	3	294	381	463	844	168	341	18	10	371	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	398	349	88	15	4	11	35	82	9	57	6	252	333	413	746	160	300	21	9	332	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	INTL	Toros del Este	—	60	53	13	3	1	1	4	6	2	7	1	245	322	396	718	151	255	10	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	89	78	21	4	0	1	8	19	0	14	3	269	337	359	696	90	339	21	9	306	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	59	56	10	2	0	0	3	16	0	3	0	179	220	214	435	36	250	27	5	202	23	-5	+1	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	22	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	406	90	20	3	7	30	131	11	33	8	222	293	337	631	116	296	29	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	507	458	109	19	5	6	31	132	11	36	10	238	302	341	643	103	310	26	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	171	2	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	43	41	7	2	0	0	2	10	0	2	0	171	209	220	429	49	233	23	5	195	18	-4	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.8
2021	25	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	249	233	50	10	4	1	11	84	5	10	3	215	265	305	570	90	330	34	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	349	327	69	18	3	5	16	94	4	21	4	211	256	330	587	119	278	27	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	295	63	10	5	6	21	81	7	16	6	214	282	342	624	129	274	25	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	221	56	6	3	7	17	53	6	37	3	253	324	403	726	149	292	21	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	398	364	77	12	4	7	23	98	9	57	6	212	275	324	599	113	267	25	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	89	81	20	3	0	1	5	23	0	14	3	247	291	321	612	74	310	26	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	406	90	20	3	7	30	131	11	33	8	222	293	337	631	116	304	29	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	396	109	24	4	9	40	91	11	33	8	275	358	424	782	149	332	20	9	346	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	616	558	132	23	6	7	38	161	13	47	11	237	300	337	637	100	318	26	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	616	540	153	35	8	6	56	123	13	47	11	283	365	411	776	128	355	20	9	346	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	171	2	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	170	2	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	415	387	81	17	6	2	19	133	7	13	6	209	259	300	559	90	312	32	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	415	380	90	17	6	5	26	108	7	13	6	237	298	353	650	116	317	26	6	292	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	502	108	28	5	8	24	146	8	35	9	215	262	339	601	124	285	27	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	540	486	130	32	5	9	40	112	8	35	9	267	333	409	743	142	329	21	7	329	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	295	63	10	5	6	21	81	7	16	6	214	282	342	624	129	274	25	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	284	74	12	5	8	31	68	7	16	6	261	347	423	769	162	317	21	10	342	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	221	56	6	3	7	17	53	6	37	3	253	324	403	726	149	301	21	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	214	63	7	4	7	24	45	6	37	3	294	381	463	844	168	341	18	10	371	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	458	417	89	14	5	8	27	112	11	64	7	213	279	329	608	115	271	24	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	458	402	101	18	5	12	39	88	11	64	7	251	332	410	742	159	293	19	9	330	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	89	81	20	3	0	1	5	23	0	14	3	247	291	321	612	74	328	26	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	89	78	21	4	0	1	8	19	0	14	3	269	337	359	696	90	339	21	9	306	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	410	90	20	3	7	30	131	11	33	8	220	293	334	627	115	296	29	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	616	560	132	23	6	7	38	161	13	47	11	236	300	336	636	100	310	26	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	415	386	81	17	6	2	19	133	7	13	6	210	259	301	560	91	316	32	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	540	503	108	28	5	8	24	146	8	35	9	215	262	338	600	123	278	27	4	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	294	63	10	5	6	21	81	7	16	6	214	282	344	625	129	274	25	6	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	223	56	6	3	7	17	53	6	37	3	251	324	399	723	148	292	21	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	458	417	89	14	5	8	27	112	11	64	7	213	279	329	608	115	267	24	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	89	84	20	3	0	1	5	23	0	14	3	238	291	310	600	71	310	26	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	223	56	6	3	7	17	53	6	37	3	251	324	399	723	148	292	21	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	458	417	89	14	5	8	27	112	11	64	7	213	279	329	608	115	267	24	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	89	84	20	3	0	1	5	23	0	14	3	238	291	310	600	71	310	26	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	TB	10%	200	183	43	7	2	4	12	47	3	19	2	229	290	343	632	114	287	24	6	284	78	-5	+3	+0	-2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	TB	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	231	292	343	635	112	291	25	8	285	78	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TB	27%	112	102	23	4	1	2	7	27	2	8	1	224	285	334	618	109	283	24	6	278	75	-3	+1	-3	-1	+2	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	TB	27%	31	29	7	1	0	1	2	7	0	2	0	227	287	334	621	108	287	23	6	280	75	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	90	85	17	3	0	1	5	23	0	5	0	200	244	271	515	71	262	26	6	229	69	-6	+1	-2	-5	+2	-1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	614	123	22	0	7	36	166	0	36	0	200	245	270	515	70	263	26	6	229	69	-46	+7	-11	-36	+14	-7.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3397	3098	690	129	35	50	196	902	67	280	56	223	284	335	619	113	296	27	6	271	69	-12	+3	-4	-7	+6	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	133	25	7	10	38	173	13	54	11	224	286	341	627	116	297	27	6	271	69	-26	+7	-9	-16	+14	-3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 89 PAwOBA .302 → .262 (−41)K% 21.3% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.35%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.99%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×0.962	25.48%
Doubles /BIP	6.78%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×0.962	5.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.14%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .302 → .262; ISO .090 → .071; BABIP .339 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 398 PAwOBA .324 → .264 (−60)K% 20.6% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.60%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	24.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.90%
HBP% /PA	2.26%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.07%
Singles /BIP	21.72%	÷0.983	×0.930	×0.995	×0.972	19.89%
Doubles /BIP	5.62%	÷0.973	×0.830	×0.995	×0.972	4.64%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.995	×0.972	1.56%
Home runs /BIP	4.12%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.52%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .324 → .264; ISO .160 → .118; BABIP .300 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAArkansas Travelers · 248 PAwOBA .364 → .312 (−52)K% 18.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.15%	÷1.046	×1.220	—	—	21.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.68%	÷0.928	×0.700	—	×0.958	6.99%
HBP% /PA	2.42%	—	×0.870	—	×0.958	2.02%
Singles /BIP	26.63%	÷1.020	×0.920	×1.006	×0.958	23.13%
Doubles /BIP	4.14%	÷0.977	×0.840	×1.006	×0.958	3.43%
Triples /BIP	2.37%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.006	×0.958	1.86%
Home runs /BIP	4.14%	÷0.820	×0.800	—	×0.958	3.87%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 109, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .364 → .312; ISO .168 → .152; BABIP .341 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 325 PAwOBA .333 → .273 (−61)K% 20.9% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.92%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	24.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.54%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.50%
HBP% /PA	2.15%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.01%
Singles /BIP	22.69%	÷1.058	×0.930	×0.990	×0.992	19.59%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.990	×0.992	4.68%
Triples /BIP	2.31%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.990	×0.992	2.45%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.56%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .333 → .273; ISO .162 → .132; BABIP .317 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 349 PAwOBA .327 → .259 (−68)K% 22.1% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.06%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	26.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.88%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.50%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.08%
Singles /BIP	21.49%	÷1.087	×0.930	×0.992	×1.003	18.30%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.992	×1.003	7.79%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷0.942	×0.970	×0.992	×1.003	1.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.31%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .327 → .259; ISO .163 → .127; BABIP .326 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 249 PAwOBA .301 → .255 (−47)K% 26.9% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.91%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	33.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.23%	÷1.100	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.62%
HBP% /PA	2.01%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.92%
Singles /BIP	24.05%	÷1.011	×0.930	×1.034	×1.018	23.28%
Doubles /BIP	7.59%	÷0.986	×0.830	×1.034	×1.018	6.72%
Triples /BIP	2.53%	÷0.914	×0.920	×1.034	×1.018	2.68%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.82%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 92, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .301 → .255; ISO .116 → .096; BABIP .346 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAltoona Curve · 507 PAwOBA .329 → .278 (−50)K% 20.5% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	26.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.28%	÷0.958	×0.700	—	×1.012	6.12%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	1.87%
Singles /BIP	25.66%	÷1.009	×0.970	×0.950	×1.012	23.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷1.038	×0.860	×0.950	×1.012	5.57%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.950	×1.012	1.39%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷0.783	×0.780	—	×1.012	1.76%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 92, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .278; ISO .121 → .102; BABIP .347 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Bradenton Marauders · 454 PAwOBA .340 → .278 (−62)K% 20.0% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.04%	÷0.986	×1.420	—	—	28.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.59%	÷0.971	×0.750	—	×0.998	6.62%
HBP% /PA	2.42%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	2.25%
Singles /BIP	23.61%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.982	×0.998	21.28%
Doubles /BIP	7.87%	÷1.058	×0.960	×0.982	×0.998	7.00%
Triples /BIP	1.31%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.982	×0.998	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	2.95%	÷1.066	×0.880	—	×0.998	2.43%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 100, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .340 → .278; ISO .149 → .119; BABIP .332 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jared Oliva (OGILVIE)	31	50	50	60	45	227/287/340	113	287	2	12	24%	6%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→50	46→45	62→70	41	237/290/363	127	308	14	42	27%	6%	84	+0.2	249/310/375	126	320	13	71	25%	6%	95	+0.9	246/312/366	120	313	12	95	24%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Greg Allen 2024 · MLB	31	48→57	43→45	64→65	46	227/323/344	117	300	10	43	26%	8%	94	+0.9	215/293/329	114	285	9	28	27%	6%	79	-0.2	202/278/307	105	272	7	27	27%	5%	66	-0.4
✕Darren Ford 2016 · AAA	30	45→53	41→45	57→65	43	218/270/309	91	280	9	39	25%	6%	64	-1.3	218/270/298	80	283	6	24	24%	6%	61	-1.5	212/261/258	46	279	1	23	23%	6%	45	-1.9
✕Jarrod Dyson 2016 · MLB	31	52→57	40→45	73→70	49	245/305/346	101	293	6	58	18%	7%	85	+0.2	247/313/348	101	283	6	44	14%	8%	88	+0.5	240/310/329	89	273	5	47	13%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Jorge Mateo 2024 · MLB	29	43→50	47→50	62→65	42	219/269/356	137	274	14	39	26%	6%	74	-0.5	219/265/353	134	280	14	41	26%	6%	72	-0.7	209/250/335	125	273	13	52	28%	5%	63	-0.4
✕Jason Bourgeois 2012 · MLB	30	57→58	38→45	63→65	48	270/309/352	82	300	5	44	12%	5%	87	+0.4	242/284/318	76	270	5	27	12%	5%	70	-0.8	241/275/316	76	274	5	14	14%	4%	64	-0.7
✕Tyler Wade 2024 · MLB	29	49→58	39→45	61→60	47	234/299/321	87	306	7	42	25%	8%	78	-0.3	224/293/294	70	295	5	29	24%	8%	70	-0.9	213/289/252	39	283	1	26	23%	9%	58	-0.6
✕Eric Young Jr. 2015 · MLB	30	52→60	39→45	65	50	246/308/341	95	296	4	43	18%	8%	85	+0.2	225/286/309	84	277	6	36	20%	7%	70	-0.9	233/288/340	107	291	8	24	22%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Craig Gentry 2015 · MLB	31	55	37→40	62→60	49	256/323/331	75	307	4	36	17%	7%	88	+0.5	218/277/292	74	274	6	25	21%	7%	63	-1.4	218/282/291	73	279	4	29	22%	7%	64	-0.4
●Donzell McDonald II 2006 · AAA	31	48→58	47→50	66→65	49	238/312/382	144	287	13	43	22%	8%	97	+1.1	245/313/379	134	306	10	35	22%	8%	96	+1.0	263/326/398	134	324	9	22	20%	8%	104	+1.2
✕Tyler Graham 2013 · AAA	29	51→54	37→40	62→65	45	239/296/315	76	301	3	42	21%	6%	75	-0.5	227/279/302	75	285	6	31	21%	5%	65	-1.2	230/270/276	46	284	3	38	19%	4%	52	-1.6
●Scott Podsednik 2007 · MLB	31	56→64	39→45	61→65	54	262/327/353	91	305	4	46	15%	8%	95	+0.9	262/322/363	101	306	6	31	15%	8%	95	+1.0	289/340/382	93	329	6	34	13%	7%	107	+1.5
✕Billy Hamilton 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	39→40	59→70	49	220/285/307	86	285	5	34	24%	8%	69	-0.9	195/248/294	99	291	8	34	33%	6%	52	-2.2	158/208/235	77	253	4	47	37%	6%	22	-1.0
✕Todd Donovan 2009 · AAA	30	49→52	36→40	61→65	48	232/291/301	69	291	3	38	21%	7%	70	-0.9	224/300/306	82	289	5	31	22%	10%	75	-0.5	214/305/285	71	275	3	38	21%	11%	71	-0.6
✕Gilberto Mejia 2013 · AAA	30	49→58	38→40	63→65	50	232/292/321	88	281	5	42	19%	8%	74	-0.5	255/311/350	95	312	5	40	19%	6%	88	+0.4	264/319/359	95	323	4	44	18%	6%	91	+0.5
✕Rajai Davis 2013 · MLB	32	53→63	42→50	64→70	44	254/298/369	116	303	8	50	19%	5%	88	+0.4	262/309/393	131	310	11	47	18%	6%	98	+1.2	264/312/409	145	311	13	43	19%	6%	103	+1.2
✕Trent Durrington 2006 · MLB	30	51→43	41→40	58→60	47	243/304/344	101	305	8	36	22%	7%	84	+0.2	217/273/295	78	280	5	32	23%	6%	61	-1.5	202/256/260	57	263	3	36	23%	6%	45	-1.5
✕Freddy Guzman 2011 · AAA	30	47→57	39→45	69→70	47	224/267/314	89	258	5	48	16%	6%	63	-1.4	245/295/352	107	291	8	54	18%	7%	83	+0.1	267/319/375	107	317	7	77	17%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Justin Greene 2019 · AAA	33	57→62	44→50	59→60	46	275/327/394	119	340	12	42	22%	7%	104	+1.6	244/294/364	120	321	13	21	27%	6%	85	+0.2	250/289/346	96	332	11	21	27%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Jon Berti 2023 · MLB	33	50→60	42→45	62→60	55	237/326/347	110	304	8	39	23%	11%	94	+0.9	263/324/370	107	324	10	29	21%	8%	98	+1.2	276/329/367	91	337	9	30	20%	6%	100	+0.5