Jared Oliva — OGILVIE

Jared OlivaOF Syracuse Mets

Age 30 R/R 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA Svc 0.291 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 113 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .286 / .340

PA113

HR2

SB11

K%25

BB%6

BABIP284

ISO117

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2020-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

1015.8%

xwOBA

100.194

POWER50

Avg EV

1076.0

Bat Spd

4670.9

EYE45

Chase%

1239.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2020

Service 0.291 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.3M		$-2M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	405	89	19	4	6	31	133	11	33	8	220	293	331	624	111	306	29	7	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	396	109	24	4	9	40	91	11	33	8	275	358	424	782	149	332	20	9	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	616	558	125	21	5	11	38	177	13	47	11	224	289	339	628	115	306	29	6	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	616	540	153	35	8	6	56	123	13	47	11	283	365	411	776	128	355	20	9	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	170	-12	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.2
2020	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	170	-12	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.2
2021	25	AAA	3 teams	—	415	387	79	17	6	2	19	138	7	13	6	204	254	295	549	90	310	33	5	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	3 teams	—	415	380	90	17	6	5	26	108	7	13	6	237	298	353	650	116	317	26	6	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	540	503	105	29	5	10	23	148	8	35	9	209	255	346	601	137	273	27	4	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	540	486	130	32	5	9	40	112	8	35	9	267	333	409	743	142	329	21	7	329	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	294	59	10	5	6	22	86	7	16	6	201	272	330	602	129	262	26	7	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	284	74	12	5	8	31	68	7	16	6	261	347	423	769	162	317	21	10	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	219	60	6	3	10	19	53	6	37	3	274	348	466	814	192	316	21	8	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	214	63	7	4	7	24	45	6	37	3	294	381	463	844	168	341	18	10	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	458	416	94	15	5	9	28	111	11	64	7	226	292	351	643	125	285	24	6	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	458	402	101	18	5	12	39	88	11	64	7	251	332	410	742	159	293	19	9	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	NYM	—	137	126	27	7	0	0	7	40	0	16	2	214	256	270	525	56	307	29	5	225	31	-11	+2	+0	+0	+4	-0.4
YTD	30	AAA	NYM	—	137	123	29	8	0	0	10	32	0	16	2	236	293	301	594	65	312	23	7	265	61	-6	+2	+0	+0	+4	0.1
ROS	30	AAA	NYM	10%	113	103	23	4	1	2	7	28	2	11	1	223	286	340	626	117	292	25	6	286	77	-3	+2	+0	-1	+3	0.1
ROS	30	MLB	NYM	10%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	200	273	200	473		292	27	9	275	69	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	30	AAA	NYM	—	148	136	29	7	0	0	8	43	0	17	2	213	257	265	522	51	305	29	5	229	33	-11	+3	+0	+0	+4	-0.4
TOT	30	AAA	NYM	—	250	229	50	11	1	2	14	68	2	27	3	218	269	301	571	83	296	27	6	253	52	-14	+4	+0	-1	+7	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	NYM	33%	364	332	76	14	3	7	24	92	5	29	4	229	291	352	643	123	288	25	7	285	76	-10	+4	-3	-4	+10	-0.2
2028	32	MLB	NYM	46%	345	314	71	13	2	7	23	88	5	23	3	226	289	347	637	121	285	26	7	282	74	-10	+3	-3	-4	+10	-0.4
2027	31	MLB	NYM	33%	119	108	24	4	1	2	8	30	2	10	1	222	288	333	621	111	288	25	7	274	68	-4	+2	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2028	32	MLB	NYM	46%	158	145	32	6	1	3	10	40	2	10	1	221	280	338	618	117	285	25	6	272	66	-6	+2	-2	-2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	347	319	68	12	2	5	22	89	4	24	2	213	272	310	583	97	278	26	6	261	58	-17	+4	-3	-8	+10	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	127	22	4	9	41	167	7	45	4	212	271	308	579	95	277	26	6	261	58	-31	+7	-6	-14	+18	-2.6
Career	—			—	3894	3547	784	148	39	70	234	1060	75	309	58	221	283	344	627	123	293	27	6	274	68	-141	+39	-7	-42	+110	-4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	132	25	7	12	39	177	13	52	10	223	286	350	636	127	295	27	6	274	68	-24	+6	-1	-7	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	22	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	454	396	109	24	4	9	40	91	11	33	8	275	358	424	782	149	332	20	9	346	123	+12	+3	—	—	+13	2.9
2019	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	507	447	124	24	6	6	42	104	11	36	10	277	354	398	752	121	347	21	8	335	115	+8	+3	—	—	+14	2.7
2019	23	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	109	93	29	11	2	0	14	19	2	11	1	312	413	473	886	161	392	17	13	395	161	+7	+2	—	—	+3	1.3
2020	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	188	188	188	375		300	38	0	170	-12	-2	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.2
2021	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	43	40	7	2	0	0	3	10	0	2	0	175	233	225	458	50	233	23	7	214	22	-4	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.7
2021	25	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	249	225	56	12	4	2	19	67	5	10	3	249	321	364	686	116	346	27	8	311	96	-1	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2021	25	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	123	115	27	3	2	3	4	31	2	1	3	235	273	374	647	139	293	25	3	283	75	-4	-1	—	—	+3	-0.1
2022	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	349	319	85	22	3	8	24	77	4	21	4	266	326	429	755	163	326	22	7	334	114	+5	+3	—	—	+10	1.8
2022	26	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	191	167	45	10	2	1	16	35	4	14	5	269	348	371	719	102	333	18	8	320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	325	284	74	12	5	8	31	68	7	16	6	261	347	423	769	162	317	21	10	342	120	+7	+1	—	—	+9	1.8
2024	28	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	248	214	63	7	4	7	24	45	6	37	3	294	381	463	844	168	341	18	10	371	142	+12	+6	—	—	+7	2.5
2025	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	398	349	88	15	4	11	35	82	9	57	6	252	333	413	746	160	300	21	9	332	112	+6	+9	—	—	+11	2.6
2025	29	INTL	Toros del Este	—	60	53	13	3	1	1	4	6	2	7	1	245	322	396	718	151	255	10	7	317	101	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	59	56	10	2	0	0	3	16	0	3	0	179	220	214	435	36	250	27	5	202	13	-6	+1	-1	-5	+2	-0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	6	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	16	25	252	281	387	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#2Damian Jacksonlast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,930 PA	6	1,930	21	95	248	324	354	-6	-5	3.6	3.6
	/162	664	7	33	248	324	354	-1.9	-1.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	5	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
#4Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	/162	664	1	37	251	310	309	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.7
	/162	664	4	56	245	312	332	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	302	6	22	226	285	348	-2	-0	0.0	0.1
	/162	664	13	49	226	285	348	-4.2	-0.6	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jared Oliva (OGILVIE)	30	50	50	60	45	218/269/301	83	296	2	27	27%	6%	52	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Dairon Blanco 2023 · AAA	30	48→49	48→50	62→70	41	239/294/378	139	312	16	42	28%	6%	88	+0.9	253/315/388	135	325	14	71	25%	6%	99	+1.7	253/321/383	130	320	13	95	24%	7%	98	+0.7
✕Darren Ford 2016 · AAA	30	46→53	41→45	58→65	44	222/275/316	94	285	9	39	25%	6%	63	-0.8	223/272/305	82	291	6	24	24%	6%	58	-1.2	221/267/269	48	296	1	23	24%	5%	43	-1.6
✕Jason Bourgeois 2012 · MLB	30	57→58	38→45	63→65	47	269/307/351	81	300	5	44	12%	5%	85	+0.7	244/285/320	76	273	5	27	12%	5%	67	-0.5	249/285/329	80	284	5	14	14%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Rajai Davis 2011 · MLB	30	59→64	41→50	65→70	47	282/326/389	107	324	6	50	15%	6%	103	+1.9	257/303/371	114	309	8	52	18%	6%	89	+0.9	266/315/413	147	314	13	43	19%	6%	103	+1.5
✕Todd Donovan 2007 · AAA	28	50→53	40	63→65	45	240/295/331	91	293	7	42	20%	6%	76	+0.0	236/301/315	79	301	5	37	21%	8%	73	-0.1	234/314/303	69	308	3	42	23%	10%	74	-0.1
✕Tyler Graham 2013 · AAA	29	52→56	37→40	62→65	44	245/299/321	76	308	3	42	21%	6%	74	-0.1	231/281/311	80	290	6	31	22%	5%	64	-0.8	234/273/287	53	289	4	38	20%	4%	50	-1.3
●Donzell McDonald II 2006 · AAA	31	49→59	50	66→65	49	247/320/407	160	295	16	43	22%	8%	106	+2.2	256/325/405	149	317	12	35	22%	9%	108	+2.3	281/345/432	151	346	10	22	20%	8%	121	+2.5
✕Eric Young Jr. 2015 · MLB	30	51→58	38→45	65	50	239/303/331	92	287	4	43	18%	8%	79	+0.3	226/289/309	83	280	6	36	20%	7%	67	-0.5	240/297/354	114	300	9	24	22%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Trent Durrington 2006 · MLB	30	52→45	41→40	58→60	47	247/308/350	102	310	8	36	22%	7%	85	+0.7	223/279/301	78	288	6	32	23%	6%	61	-1.0	210/266/270	59	275	3	36	23%	6%	45	-1.2
●Scott Podsednik 2005 · MLB	29	55→65	44→45	66→65	54	265/331/390	125	298	10	47	15%	8%	106	+2.2	264/328/359	95	310	5	45	15%	8%	96	+1.5	290/343/382	92	331	6	34	13%	7%	105	+1.7
✕Dylan Moore 2023 · MLB	30	44→47	52→50	57→65	52	222/331/394	172	292	19	35	29%	11%	109	+2.4	216/319/391	175	291	18	32	30%	11%	103	+1.9	201/303/378	176	270	20	37	31%	10%	91	+0.5
●Gilberto Mejia 2013 · AAA	30	50→60	39→45	64→65	50	237/295/331	95	282	6	42	18%	8%	75	-0.0	271/326/377	106	326	6	40	18%	6%	100	+1.7	284/339/394	110	341	6	44	17%	6%	106	+1.8
✕Roman Quinn 2021 · MLB	28	48→53	46→45	65	43	236/295/371	135	320	13	36	30%	7%	85	+0.7	213/300/339	126	330	11	27	35%	9%	81	+0.4	167/275/272	105	312	9	34	44%	11%	53	-0.4
✕Matt Lipka 2022 · AAA	30	51→56	46→45	58→60	39	249/298/381	131	340	14	31	30%	5%	90	+1.0	227/285/340	113	331	11	34	32%	7%	74	-0.1	191/259/268	78	299	5	59	35%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Jon Berti 2019 · MLB	29	50→60	44→45	62→60	45	244/305/368	124	304	10	34	22%	6%	89	+1.0	255/337/382	127	325	12	28	23%	10%	107	+2.2	270/339/373	102	338	9	39	21%	9%	102	+1.0
✕Justin Christian 2008 · AAA	28	51→57	41→45	65	44	245/287/347	102	289	7	40	18%	5%	76	+0.0	249/289/354	105	288	8	33	16%	5%	79	+0.3	261/315/390	129	290	11	30	14%	6%	96	+1.2
✕Lane Adams 2018 · MLB	28	47→46	48→50	61→60	40	231/282/370	139	319	16	34	32%	6%	81	+0.4	198/264/334	136	314	15	23	39%	7%	64	-0.8	161/237/290	129	263	15	20	42%	8%	39	-1.2
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	52→57	43→45	60→65	45	244/333/363	119	323	10	34	26%	7%	102	+1.8	226/314/349	123	299	10	35	26%	7%	90	+1.0	218/308/337	119	293	9	40	27%	7%	82	+0.2
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB	28	51→61	41→45	65	47	241/308/351	110	307	7	40	22%	8%	86	+0.8	219/292/321	102	304	10	31	29%	9%	72	-0.2	189/274/277	88	282	11	40	34%	10%	50	-0.3
✕Jarrod Dyson 2016 · MLB	31	52→58	40→45	73→70	49	248/308/351	103	297	6	58	18%	7%	85	+0.7	251/320/355	104	288	6	44	14%	8%	92	+1.2	245/320/337	93	280	5	47	13%	8%	82	+0.3