Mycal Jones
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 26 | AAMississippi B… | 396 | .261/.339/.348 | 4 | 29 | 64 | — | .234/.288/.309 |
| 2014 | 27 | AAMississippi B… | 443 | .255/.342/.347 | 3 | 21 | 59 | — | .223/.286/.306 |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 224 | .262/.365/.387 | 4 | 7 | 67 | — | .218/.288/.317 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 22 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 282 | 244 | 63 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 55 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 258 | 342 | 430 | 772 | 172 | 312 | 20 | 9 | 336 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 226 | 467 | 692 | 267 | 211 | 27 | 3 | 278 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 318 | 275 | 74 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 66 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 269 | 358 | 422 | 780 | 153 | 327 | 21 | 10 | 346 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A | Rome Braves | — | 219 | 199 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 48 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 261 | 307 | 412 | 719 | 151 | 309 | 22 | 5 | 310 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 373 | 94 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 56 | 90 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 360 | 381 | 741 | 129 | 314 | 20 | 12 | 329 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 98 | 85 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 141 | 232 | 141 | 373 | 200 | 26 | 9 | 182 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 437 | 383 | 97 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 64 | 9 | 22 | 8 | 253 | 329 | 363 | 692 | 110 | 296 | 15 | 8 | 307 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 396 | 345 | 90 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 63 | 5 | 29 | 11 | 261 | 339 | 348 | 687 | 87 | 306 | 16 | 9 | 307 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 443 | 380 | 97 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 72 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 255 | 342 | 347 | 689 | 92 | 302 | 16 | 9 | 308 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | — | 187 | 164 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 42 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 262 | 346 | 390 | 736 | 128 | 328 | 22 | 11 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 37 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 259 | 459 | 370 | 830 | 111 | 350 | 19 | 27 | 391 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 282 | 254 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 78 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 181 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 114 | 230 | 28 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 226 | 467 | 692 | 267 | 174 | 33 | 3 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 318 | 287 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 95 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 226 | 291 | 352 | 643 | 125 | 298 | 30 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 219 | 203 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 66 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 207 | 241 | 325 | 566 | 118 | 258 | 30 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 390 | 88 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 110 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 226 | 307 | 349 | 656 | 123 | 279 | 24 | 9 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 98 | 89 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 112 | 168 | 112 | 281 | 170 | 33 | 5 | 136 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 437 | 396 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 96 | 9 | 22 | 8 | 202 | 258 | 285 | 544 | 83 | 247 | 22 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 396 | 359 | 84 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 80 | 5 | 29 | 11 | 234 | 288 | 309 | 597 | 75 | 282 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 443 | 395 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 90 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 223 | 286 | 306 | 592 | 84 | 262 | 20 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Braves | — | 187 | 172 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 54 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 215 | 270 | 314 | 584 | 99 | 284 | 29 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 37 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 378 | 333 | 712 | 100 | 317 | 22 | 19 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 282 | 254 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 78 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 181 | 244 | 295 | 539 | 114 | 243 | 28 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | ROK RAW | Danville Braves | — | 282 | 244 | 63 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 55 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 258 | 342 | 430 | 772 | 172 | 312 | 20 | 9 | 336 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 520 | 110 | 25 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 173 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 212 | 263 | 333 | 595 | 121 | 287 | 30 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 570 | 504 | 132 | 31 | 2 | 15 | 43 | 123 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 262 | 331 | 421 | 752 | 159 | 314 | 22 | 8 | 328 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 390 | 88 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 110 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 226 | 307 | 349 | 656 | 123 | 296 | 24 | 9 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 373 | 94 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 56 | 90 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 360 | 381 | 741 | 129 | 314 | 20 | 12 | 329 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 485 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 128 | 10 | 29 | 13 | 186 | 242 | 254 | 495 | 68 | 244 | 24 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 468 | 109 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 89 | 10 | 29 | 13 | 233 | 311 | 323 | 634 | 90 | 280 | 17 | 8 | 284 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 396 | 359 | 84 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 80 | 5 | 29 | 11 | 234 | 288 | 309 | 597 | 75 | 290 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 396 | 345 | 90 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 63 | 5 | 29 | 11 | 261 | 339 | 348 | 687 | 87 | 306 | 16 | 9 | 307 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 443 | 395 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 90 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 223 | 286 | 306 | 592 | 84 | 276 | 20 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 443 | 380 | 97 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 72 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 255 | 342 | 347 | 689 | 92 | 302 | 16 | 9 | 308 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 202 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 288 | 317 | 605 | 99 | 297 | 28 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 224 | 191 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 49 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 365 | 387 | 752 | 126 | 331 | 22 | 13 | 340 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 22 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 282 | 259 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 78 | 5 | 19 | 4 | 178 | 244 | 290 | 533 | 112 | 230 | 28 | 6 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 529 | 110 | 25 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 173 | 9 | 22 | 7 | 208 | 263 | 327 | 590 | 119 | 275 | 30 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 400 | 88 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 110 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 220 | 307 | 340 | 647 | 120 | 279 | 24 | 9 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 494 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 128 | 10 | 29 | 13 | 182 | 242 | 249 | 491 | 67 | 233 | 24 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 396 | 366 | 84 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 80 | 5 | 29 | 11 | 230 | 288 | 303 | 591 | 74 | 282 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 443 | 405 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 90 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 217 | 286 | 299 | 585 | 81 | 262 | 20 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 224 | 202 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 288 | 317 | 605 | 99 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2899 | 2605 | 550 | 129 | 11 | 34 | 176 | 721 | 45 | 144 | 50 | 211 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 97 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -148 | +9 | +0 | +10 | +63 | -6.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 123 | 29 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 162 | 10 | 32 | 11 | 211 | 271 | 308 | 580 | 98 | 274 | 25 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -33 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAGwinnett Braves · 187 PAwOBA .323 → .257 (−66)K% 22.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.46% | ÷0.940 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.70% | ÷1.103 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.41% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×0.958 | ×0.992 | 22.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×0.992 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.988 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×0.992 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.014 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 88, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .323 → .257; ISO .128 → .104; BABIP .328 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMississippi Braves · 37 PAwOBA .383 → .323 (−59)K% 18.9% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.92% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 27.03% | ÷0.965 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 18.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 17.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 14.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 104, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .383 → .323; ISO .111 → .116; BABIP .350 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMississippi Braves · 443 PAwOBA .304 → .256 (−48)K% 16.3% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.25% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.48% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 19.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.015 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 6.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.004 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.813 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.94% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .304 → .256; ISO .092 → .085; BABIP .302 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAMississippi Braves · 396 PAwOBA .302 → .263 (−39)K% 15.9% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.91% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.089 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.11% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 21.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.921 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 93, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .302 → .263; ISO .087 → .081; BABIP .306 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 437 PAwOBA .300 → .234 (−66)K% 14.6% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.65% | ÷0.944 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.78% | ÷1.021 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.06% | ÷0.994 | ×0.940 | ×0.952 | ×0.978 | 17.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.46% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | ×0.952 | ×0.978 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.952 | ×0.978 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.905 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.92% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .300 → .234; ISO .110 → .084; BABIP .296 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAMississippi Braves · 98 PAwOBA .178 → .136 (−42)K% 25.5% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.51% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.18% | ÷1.114 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 16.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.963 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 93, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .178 → .136; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAMississippi Braves · 449 PAwOBA .321 → .281 (−40)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.25% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.55% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×1.012 | 18.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.83% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×1.012 | 8.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷0.978 | ×0.880 | ×0.963 | ×1.012 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.47% | ÷0.844 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 108, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .321 → .281; ISO .129 → .128; BABIP .314 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 318 PAwOBA .340 → .274 (−66)K% 20.8% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷0.985 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.75% | ÷1.009 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.20% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.49% | ÷0.954 | ×0.940 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 21.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.958 | ×0.998 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.35% | ÷1.048 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 91, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .340 → .274; ISO .153 → .123; BABIP .327 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).