Justin Dean
CF Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 674 | .245/.345/.345 | 10 | 68 | 77 | — | .216/.285/.285 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAALAD | 347 | .289/.378/.431 | 6 | 27 | 91 | — | .257/.317/.361 |
| 2026 | 29 | AAACHC | 352 | .213/.329/.297 | 3 | 25 | 44 | — | .183/.265/.247 |
| 2027PROJ30% MLB | 30 | MLBCHC | 46 | .208/.281/.290 | 0 | 3 | 61 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ39% MLB | 31 | MLBCHC | 78 | .206/.278/.287 | 1 | 4 | 60 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | — | 126 | 113 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 27 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 257 | 333 | 363 | 696 | 106 | 337 | 21 | 9 | 315 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 155 | 130 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 32 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 308 | 419 | 454 | 873 | 146 | 402 | 21 | 14 | 392 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | — | 503 | 429 | 122 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 115 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 284 | 387 | 431 | 818 | 147 | 368 | 23 | 12 | 367 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 53 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 308 | 200 | 508 | 321 | 34 | 13 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 423 | 363 | 86 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 128 | 18 | 29 | 6 | 237 | 345 | 364 | 709 | 127 | 344 | 30 | 10 | 326 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | INTL | Mayos de Navojoa | — | 198 | 176 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 40 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 307 | 381 | 477 | 858 | 170 | 369 | 20 | 9 | 380 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 59 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 204 | 259 | 241 | 499 | 37 | 275 | 25 | 5 | 230 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 322 | 274 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 97 | 6 | 19 | 5 | 234 | 344 | 339 | 683 | 106 | 347 | 30 | 12 | 314 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Mexico | — | 320 | 272 | 87 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 39 | 66 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 320 | 413 | 438 | 850 | 118 | 415 | 21 | 12 | 377 | 142 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 199 | 159 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 67 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 164 | 314 | 270 | 585 | 107 | 237 | 34 | 16 | 274 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 236 | 193 | 44 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 72 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 228 | 366 | 332 | 698 | 104 | 336 | 31 | 17 | 326 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 258 | 204 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 61 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 216 | 355 | 304 | 659 | 88 | 283 | 24 | 16 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 90 | 74 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 257 | 375 | 324 | 699 | 68 | 413 | 33 | 13 | 321 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 362 | 315 | 77 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 92 | 4 | 47 | 7 | 244 | 335 | 321 | 656 | 76 | 330 | 25 | 11 | 301 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | INTL | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 222 | 190 | 46 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 47 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 242 | 348 | 395 | 743 | 153 | 287 | 21 | 12 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 347 | 304 | 88 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 82 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 289 | 378 | 431 | 808 | 141 | 380 | 24 | 11 | 363 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 352 | 296 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 48 | 87 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 213 | 329 | 297 | 626 | 84 | 287 | 25 | 14 | 290 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 126 | 117 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 205 | 262 | 282 | 544 | 77 | 319 | 30 | 6 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 155 | 138 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 232 | 316 | 341 | 657 | 109 | 332 | 29 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 503 | 450 | 98 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 154 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 218 | 297 | 329 | 626 | 111 | 305 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 423 | 379 | 77 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 157 | 18 | 29 | 6 | 203 | 286 | 311 | 597 | 108 | 320 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 59 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 182 | 224 | 218 | 442 | 36 | 253 | 31 | 3 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 322 | 287 | 55 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 118 | 6 | 19 | 5 | 192 | 275 | 275 | 550 | 84 | 307 | 37 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 199 | 169 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 80 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 148 | 258 | 231 | 489 | 83 | 224 | 40 | 11 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 236 | 204 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 85 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 201 | 306 | 299 | 605 | 98 | 304 | 36 | 12 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 90 | 78 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 218 | 307 | 269 | 576 | 51 | 381 | 42 | 9 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 362 | 329 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 109 | 4 | 47 | 7 | 216 | 279 | 289 | 568 | 73 | 302 | 30 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 347 | 319 | 82 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 257 | 317 | 361 | 678 | 103 | 362 | 28 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 352 | 312 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 105 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 183 | 265 | 247 | 512 | 64 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 255 | 57 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 83 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 224 | 295 | 318 | 613 | 94 | 327 | 30 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 243 | 69 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 33 | 59 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 284 | 381 | 412 | 792 | 128 | 372 | 21 | 12 | 358 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 556 | 497 | 108 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 170 | 10 | 50 | 11 | 217 | 297 | 328 | 625 | 111 | 308 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 556 | 474 | 131 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 69 | 133 | 10 | 50 | 11 | 276 | 380 | 409 | 789 | 133 | 364 | 24 | 12 | 356 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 621 | 559 | 112 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 230 | 22 | 45 | 15 | 200 | 279 | 306 | 585 | 106 | 320 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 621 | 539 | 140 | 24 | 5 | 14 | 59 | 168 | 22 | 45 | 15 | 260 | 356 | 401 | 757 | 141 | 353 | 27 | 10 | 343 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 701 | 628 | 120 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 54 | 251 | 11 | 43 | 14 | 191 | 267 | 272 | 539 | 81 | 306 | 36 | 8 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 701 | 600 | 162 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 82 | 178 | 11 | 43 | 14 | 270 | 368 | 375 | 743 | 105 | 373 | 25 | 12 | 336 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 693 | 588 | 104 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 79 | 263 | 10 | 52 | 12 | 177 | 285 | 269 | 554 | 92 | 283 | 38 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 693 | 556 | 114 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 111 | 200 | 10 | 52 | 12 | 205 | 347 | 304 | 651 | 99 | 288 | 29 | 16 | 302 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 674 | 607 | 131 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 218 | 11 | 68 | 11 | 216 | 286 | 282 | 568 | 66 | 325 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 674 | 579 | 142 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 77 | 169 | 11 | 68 | 11 | 245 | 345 | 345 | 690 | 100 | 325 | 25 | 11 | 315 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 347 | 319 | 82 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 257 | 317 | 361 | 678 | 103 | 358 | 28 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 347 | 304 | 88 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 82 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 289 | 378 | 431 | 808 | 141 | 380 | 24 | 11 | 363 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 352 | 312 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 105 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 183 | 265 | 247 | 512 | 64 | 264 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 352 | 296 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 48 | 87 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 213 | 329 | 297 | 626 | 84 | 287 | 25 | 14 | 290 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 253 | 57 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 83 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 225 | 295 | 320 | 616 | 95 | 326 | 30 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 556 | 495 | 108 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 170 | 10 | 50 | 11 | 218 | 297 | 329 | 626 | 111 | 305 | 31 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 621 | 555 | 112 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 230 | 22 | 45 | 15 | 202 | 279 | 308 | 587 | 106 | 320 | 37 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 701 | 630 | 120 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 54 | 251 | 11 | 43 | 14 | 190 | 267 | 271 | 538 | 81 | 299 | 36 | 8 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 693 | 599 | 104 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 79 | 263 | 10 | 52 | 12 | 174 | 285 | 264 | 549 | 90 | 267 | 38 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 674 | 609 | 131 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 218 | 11 | 68 | 11 | 215 | 286 | 281 | 567 | 66 | 318 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 347 | 316 | 82 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 259 | 317 | 364 | 681 | 104 | 362 | 28 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 352 | 314 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 105 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 182 | 265 | 245 | 510 | 64 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 674 | 609 | 131 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 218 | 11 | 68 | 11 | 215 | 286 | 281 | 567 | 66 | 318 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Comets | — | 347 | 316 | 82 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 97 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 259 | 317 | 364 | 681 | 104 | 362 | 28 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 352 | 314 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 105 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 182 | 265 | 245 | 510 | 64 | 255 | 30 | 9 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 30% | 380 | 342 | 70 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 109 | 4 | 23 | 4 | 206 | 279 | 286 | 564 | 80 | 288 | 29 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -17 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 30% | 46 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 208 | 281 | 290 | 571 | 82 | 292 | 28 | 9 | 262 | 61 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | CHC | 39% | 200 | 180 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 57 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 204 | 276 | 283 | 559 | 79 | 285 | 28 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -10 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +4 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | CHC | 39% | 78 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 278 | 287 | 565 | 81 | 289 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 60 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 78 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 282 | 310 | 592 | 99 | 292 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 125 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 183 | 8 | 33 | 8 | 211 | 282 | 307 | 589 | 96 | 292 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -31 | +3 | -9 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4580 | 4084 | 835 | 121 | 43 | 51 | 373 | 1518 | 80 | 346 | 87 | 204 | 284 | 293 | 576 | 88 | 308 | 33 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -17 | +2 | -3 | +1 | +8 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 118 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 215 | 11 | 49 | 12 | 203 | 283 | 290 | 572 | 86 | 307 | 33 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -31 | +4 | -5 | +2 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 352 PAwOBA .286 → .233 (−53)K% 24.7% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.72% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.006 | ×0.972 | 20.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.972 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.972 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .286 → .233; ISO .084 → .068; BABIP .287 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 347 PAwOBA .354 → .303 (−51)K% 23.6% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.63% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷1.083 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.38% | ÷0.951 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×0.982 | 28.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.86% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×0.982 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×0.982 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.956 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 1.94% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 90, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .354 → .303; ISO .141 → .113; BABIP .380 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAMississippi Braves · 362 PAwOBA .297 → .252 (−45)K% 25.4% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.41% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷1.025 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.35% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.968 | 24.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.93% | ÷0.899 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×0.968 | 4.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.997 | ×0.880 | ×1.016 | ×0.968 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.906 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.15% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 101, 2B 80, 3B 99, K 106, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .297 → .252; ISO .076 → .071; BABIP .330 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 90 PAwOBA .321 → .265 (−55)K% 33.3% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.09% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 32.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.961 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .321 → .265; ISO .068 → .055; BABIP .413 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMississippi Braves · 236 PAwOBA .319 → .269 (−50)K% 30.5% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.51% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.53% | ÷0.943 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 11.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.93% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 26.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 2.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.13% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 4.08% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .319 → .269; ISO .104 → .101; BABIP .336 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 199 PAwOBA .275 → .226 (−50)K% 33.7% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.67% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.08% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 11.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.51% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 18.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.26% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 2.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .275 → .226; ISO .107 → .085; BABIP .237 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMississippi Braves · 322 PAwOBA .309 → .249 (−59)K% 30.1% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.42% | ÷0.985 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.86% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 22.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.26% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.927 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .309 → .249; ISO .106 → .091; BABIP .347 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 59 PAwOBA .228 → .197 (−30)K% 25.4% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.42% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.08% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.966 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .228 → .197; ISO .037 → .032; BABIP .275 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .