Justin Dean — OGILVIE

Justin DeanCF Iowa Cubs

Age 29 R/R 5'8" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION223 act + 148 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .291 / .296

PA148

HR2

SB10

K%32

BB%9

BABIP299

ISO91

MLB%30%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT55

Whiff%

1027.3%

POWER45

Bat Spd

1065.1

EYE55

Chase%

6628.6%

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	ROK	2 teams	—	281	255	57	7	7	1	21	85	5	16	9	224	295	318	613	94	331	30	7	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	2 teams	—	281	243	69	10	9	1	33	59	5	16	9	284	381	412	792	128	372	21	12	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	2 teams	—	556	496	109	13	7	11	47	170	10	50	11	220	300	341	641	121	308	31	8	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A	2 teams	—	556	474	131	18	9	9	69	133	10	50	11	276	380	409	789	133	364	24	12	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	621	563	112	17	6	14	35	243	22	45	15	199	273	325	598	126	320	39	6	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	2 teams	—	621	539	140	24	5	14	59	168	22	45	15	260	356	401	757	141	353	27	10	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	3 teams	—	701	626	116	20	8	5	56	263	11	43	14	185	264	267	531	81	307	38	8	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	3 teams	—	701	600	162	26	11	5	82	178	11	43	14	270	368	375	743	105	373	25	12	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	INTL	3 teams	—	693	583	109	9	3	18	84	265	10	52	12	187	300	305	605	118	294	38	12	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	INTL	3 teams	—	693	556	114	11	4	12	111	200	10	52	12	205	347	304	651	99	288	29	16	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	3 teams	—	674	605	137	22	4	5	51	225	11	68	11	226	298	301	599	74	346	33	8	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	3 teams	—	674	579	142	20	4	10	77	169	11	68	11	245	345	345	690	100	325	25	11	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	347	319	83	11	4	5	24	103	4	27	9	260	320	367	687	107	370	30	7	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	347	304	88	13	6	6	39	82	4	27	9	289	378	431	808	141	380	24	11	363	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	AAA	CHC	—	223	192	41	7	2	3	25	70	3	14	1	214	314	318	631	104	314	31	11	278	71	-7	+2	+0	+1	+6	0.2
YTD	29	AAA	CHC	—	223	181	43	8	2	3	36	58	3	14	1	238	373	354	726	116	328	26	16	333	113	+3	+2	+0	+1	+6	1.3
ROS	29	AAA	CHC	30%	148	131	27	4	1	2	14	47	2	10	2	205	291	296	587	91	297	32	9	272	66	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.0
ROS	29	MLB	CHC	30%	45	40	8	1	0	1	4	14	1	3	0	200	289	300	589	100	298	31	9	264	60	-2	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	29	AAA	CHC	—	268	232	49	8	2	4	29	84	4	17	1	211	309	315	624	103	308	31	11	276	69	-9	+3	+0	+1	+8	0.2
TOT	29	AAA	CHC	—	371	323	68	11	3	5	39	117	5	24	3	210	305	309	614	99	308	31	10	276	69	-13	+4	+0	+1	+11	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	CHC	39%	323	286	60	10	2	5	30	99	4	18	3	210	294	311	605	101	294	31	9	272	67	-12	+2	-2	+1	+9	-0.2
2028	31	MLB	CHC	44%	329	292	61	10	2	5	30	100	4	16	3	209	291	308	600	99	292	30	9	273	67	-12	+2	-3	+1	+9	-0.3
2029	32	MLB	CHC	47%	324	287	59	9	2	5	30	98	4	13	2	206	290	303	593	98	289	30	9	269	64	-13	+2	-3	+1	+9	-0.5
2027	30	MLB	CHC	39%	126	112	24	4	1	2	12	39	1	7	1	214	296	321	617	107	295	31	10	265	61	-6	+1	-1	+0	+4	-0.1
2028	31	MLB	CHC	44%	145	129	26	4	1	2	13	44	2	7	1	202	285	295	579	93	293	30	9	265	61	-6	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.2
2029	32	MLB	CHC	47%	153	136	27	4	1	2	14	46	2	6	1	199	283	287	570	88	290	30	9	262	59	-7	+1	-2	+1	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	469	417	85	13	3	7	43	143	6	23	3	204	288	300	587	96	289	30	9	264	60	-21	+3	-4	+2	+13	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	118	18	4	10	60	198	8	32	4	204	288	301	589	97	289	30	9	264	60	-29	+5	-5	+2	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	4997	4443	930	132	46	76	422	1698	87	358	91	209	291	311	602	102	316	34	8	269	64	-204	+35	-8	+18	+142	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	121	17	6	10	55	221	11	47	12	209	290	311	602	102	316	34	8	269	64	-27	+5	-1	+2	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	21	A	Rome Braves	—	126	113	29	2	5	0	11	27	2	9	3	257	333	363	696	106	337	21	9	315	99	-0	+1	—	—	+4	0.4
2018	21	ROK	Danville Braves	—	155	130	40	8	4	1	22	32	3	7	6	308	419	454	873	146	402	21	14	392	158	+10	-1	—	—	+4	1.4
2019	22	A	Rome Braves	—	503	429	122	18	9	9	62	115	10	47	10	284	387	431	818	147	368	23	12	367	139	+22	+5	—	—	+14	4.3
2019	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	53	45	9	0	0	0	7	18	0	3	1	200	308	200	508		321	34	13	246	46	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2021	24	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	423	363	86	14	4	8	42	128	18	29	6	237	345	364	709	127	344	30	10	326	108	+4	+3	—	—	+12	1.9
2021	24	INTL	Mayos de Navojoa	—	198	176	54	10	1	6	17	40	4	16	9	307	381	477	858	170	369	20	9	380	149	+11	-0	—	—	+6	1.6
2022	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	59	54	11	2	0	0	3	15	1	5	1	204	259	241	499	37	275	25	5	230	34	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.2
2022	25	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	322	274	64	12	4	3	40	97	6	19	5	234	344	339	683	106	347	30	12	314	99	-1	+2	—	—	+9	1.1
2022	25	INTL	Mexico	—	320	272	87	12	7	2	39	66	4	19	8	320	413	438	850	118	415	21	12	377	147	+17	+1	—	—	+9	2.7
2023	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	199	159	26	3	1	4	32	67	3	13	3	164	314	270	585	107	237	34	16	274	68	-7	+1	—	—	+6	-0.0
2023	26	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	236	193	44	3	1	5	39	72	3	22	5	228	366	332	698	104	336	31	17	326	108	+2	+2	—	—	+7	1.1
2023	26	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	258	204	44	5	2	3	40	61	4	17	4	216	355	304	659	88	283	24	16	300	88	-3	+2	—	—	+7	0.6
2024	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	90	74	19	3	1	0	12	30	2	14	1	257	375	324	699	68	413	33	13	321	104	+0	+2	—	—	+3	0.5
2024	27	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	362	315	77	11	2	3	39	92	4	47	7	244	335	321	656	76	330	25	11	301	89	-5	+7	—	—	+10	1.2
2024	27	INTL	Caneros de los Mochis	—	222	190	46	6	1	7	26	47	5	7	3	242	348	395	743	153	287	21	12	336	116	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2025	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Comets	—	347	304	88	13	6	6	39	82	4	27	9	289	378	431	808	141	380	24	11	363	136	+14	+2	—	—	+10	2.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	499	7	26	206	285	303	+2	+0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	10	34	206	285	303	+2.4	+0.2	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Dean (OGILVIE)	29	55	45	60	55	210/305/309	99	308	5	24	31%	10%	69	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Darren Ford 2015 · AAA	29	48→53	38→45	59→65	40	226/271/298	72	309	5	42	28%	6%	56	-1.3	223/273/307	84	290	7	31	24%	6%	59	-1.1	219/273/299	80	279	7	31	23%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Billy Hamilton 2020 · MLB	29	49→59	38→40	62→70	49	230/293/313	83	300	4	37	23%	8%	69	-0.4	207/263/305	98	292	7	34	30%	7%	55	-1.4	161/212/239	78	258	4	47	37%	6%	14	-0.9
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	41→40	57→60	49	216/288/311	95	273	8	35	23%	9%	68	-0.5	227/294/306	79	301	6	35	25%	8%	69	-0.4	226/297/286	59	306	4	40	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Todd Donovan 2008 · AAA	29	50→53	39→40	61→65	46	236/293/324	88	288	6	38	20%	6%	72	-0.2	233/306/311	78	304	4	35	22%	9%	75	-0.0	234/314/303	69	308	3	42	23%	10%	74	-0.1
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Darin Mastroianni 2014 · MLB	28	48→58	38→40	61→60	47	225/288/303	78	289	5	34	23%	7%	65	-0.7	222/273/296	74	283	5	24	22%	6%	57	-1.2	221/270/284	63	280	4	24	21%	5%	49	-1.3
✕Quintin Berry 2014 · MLB	29	47→57	38→40	63→65	46	219/290/294	75	298	5	38	26%	8%	64	-0.8	227/294/295	68	305	4	33	25%	8%	66	-0.6	229/297/285	56	312	3	37	25%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Tyler Graham 2013 · AAA	29	52→56	37→40	62→65	44	245/299/321	76	308	3	42	21%	6%	74	-0.1	231/281/311	80	290	6	31	22%	5%	64	-0.8	234/273/287	53	289	4	38	20%	4%	50	-1.3
✕Jorge Mateo 2023 · MLB	28	44→46	47→50	60→65	40	221/269/365	144	285	13	32	27%	5%	74	-0.1	218/266/352	134	276	13	40	25%	6%	69	-0.4	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Trent Durrington 2006 · MLB	30	52→45	41→40	58→60	47	247/308/350	102	310	8	36	22%	7%	85	+0.7	223/279/301	78	288	6	32	23%	6%	61	-1.0	210/266/270	59	275	3	36	23%	6%	45	-1.2
✕Delino DeShields 2023 · MLB	30	46→55	37→45	56→65	53	209/305/277	68	302	4	31	29%	11%	67	-0.5	215/296/292	77	317	5	23	30%	10%	66	-0.6	230/312/290	60	384	0	11	36%	9%	68	-0.1
✕Wynton Bernard 2019 · AAA	28	45→55	40→45	60	41	217/258/310	93	277	8	31	24%	5%	54	-1.4	212/259/316	104	278	8	27	25%	6%	56	-1.3	241/291/361	120	296	11	37	22%	6%	78	+0.2
✕Lane Adams 2019 · MLB	29	42→46	45→50	59→60	39	204/265/323	119	312	12	32	37%	7%	61	-1.0	202/270/352	150	319	18	17	40%	7%	72	-0.2	179/253/346	167	275	22	14	42%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Andrew Velazquez 2023 · MLB	29	43→51	46→50	60	39	214/267/340	126	306	13	31	34%	6%	66	-0.6	207/258/322	115	316	13	33	37%	6%	58	-1.2	211/254/305	94	318	10	30	35%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2022 · MLB	27	43→52	44→45	59→65	38	214/262/331	116	287	11	35	29%	5%	62	-0.9	213/273/338	125	291	14	30	31%	5%	69	-0.4	188/256/296	108	256	15	44	31%	5%	50	-0.9
✕John Andreoli 2017 · AAA	27	47→57	43→45	61→60	48	226/303/342	116	313	10	34	29%	9%	82	+0.5	219/297/348	129	310	12	24	30%	9%	82	+0.5	208/292/334	126	298	11	21	31%	10%	73	-0.1
✕Cade Gotta 2019 · AAA	27	49→51	40→45	59→55	45	236/284/338	103	297	6	32	22%	6%	72	-0.2	236/303/353	117	306	9	21	24%	9%	85	+0.7	241/323/356	115	311	9	21	24%	11%	95	+0.5
✕Zach Davis 2022 · AAA	28	46→52	37→30	58→65	40	218/274/289	71	313	5	34	31%	6%	56	-1.3	217/286/288	71	329	5	41	33%	7%	61	-1.0	222/300/261	39	341	0	78	31%	8%	59	-0.4
✕Drew Jackson 2022 · AAA	29	43	45	57→55	47	207/296/332	126	302	13	28	33%	10%	78	+0.2	215/291/329	114	357	12	21	39%	9%	74	-0.1	187/265/256	69	364	8	20	46%	9%	41	-0.8
✕Tanner Kirwer 2023 · AA	27	44	43→40	59→60	45	214/295/319	105	309	12	32	32%	9%	74	-0.1	212/279/316	104	299	11	27	31%	7%	66	-0.6	180/249/269	88	246	11	46	30%	7%	38	-0.9