Justin Maxwell

PosRF

B/TR/R

Born1983-11-06

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	30	AAAKC	233	.285/.357/.464	8	3	51	—	.196/.252/.313
2014	30	MLBKC	45	.150/.227/.175	0	0	17	-1.1
2015	31	MLBSF	274	.209/.276/.341	7	2	76	-0.5
2016	32	AAAPawtucket Red…	253	.219/.313/.320	5	4	45	—	.189/.257/.268
2017	33	No MLB games played
2018	34	No MLB games played
2019	35	No MLB games played
2020	36	No MLB games played
2021	37	No MLB games played
2022	38	No MLB games played
2023	39	No MLB games played
2024	40	No MLB games played
2025	41	No MLB games played
2026	42	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015

Speed90

Avg EV39

xwOBA28

Barrel%26

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	22	A	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	68	58	10	2	2	1	8	23	2	1	0	172	294	328	622	155	265	34	12	286	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	27	26	7	0	0	2	1	8	0	0	0	269	296	500	796	231	312	30	4	348	121	+1	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.2
2007	23	A+	Potomac Nationals	—	260	228	60	13	0	13	24	65	4	21	5	263	344	491	835	228	305	25	9	362	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	244	209	63	12	2	14	26	57	6	14	3	301	394	579	973	278	348	23	11	418	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	180	146	34	6	3	7	31	28	1	13	4	233	371	459	830	226	239	16	17	365	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	102	89	22	4	1	4	12	32	1	6	1	247	343	449	793	202	340	31	12	352	125	+3	+1	+4	+2	+2	1.3
2009	25	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	448	384	93	10	5	13	54	136	6	35	8	242	345	396	740	154	339	30	12	332	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	131	104	15	6	0	3	25	43	0	5	1	144	310	288	599	144	200	33	19	281	69	-5	+1	+4	-4	+3	-0.2
2010	26	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	272	230	66	17	0	6	35	75	4	16	7	287	390	439	829	152	403	28	13	370	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	204	177	46	8	1	16	26	72	1	11	2	260	358	588	945	328	337	35	13	407	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	352	315	72	13	3	18	32	114	3	9	4	229	306	460	766	232	292	32	9	335	113	+5	+0	+5	+1	+8	1.9
2013	29	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	262	234	59	16	3	7	23	78	4	6	2	252	330	436	765	184	347	30	9	339	119	+6	+0	-5	-3	+6	0.4
2013	29	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	32	28	5	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	179	258	286	544	107	182	19	9	244	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	23	21	1	0	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	48	91	48	139		71	35	4	70	-79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	45	40	6	1	0	0	2	20	2	0	1	150	227	175	402	25	286	44	4	193	17	-4	-0	-4	-3	+1	-1.1
2014	30	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	233	207	59	11	1	8	20	75	3	3	2	285	357	464	820	179	402	32	9	360	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	274	249	52	8	2	7	20	76	3	2	1	209	276	341	617	133	269	28	7	277	76	-8	+0	-0	-3	+6	-0.5
2016	32	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	253	219	48	7	0	5	25	61	5	4	4	219	313	320	633	100	276	24	10	289	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1193	1057	233	48	9	41	115	371	13	28	10	220	305	399	704	179	294	31	10	313	98	-3	+2	+3	-9	+26	1.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	22	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	68	61	8	1	2	1	5	31	2	1	0	131	221	262	483	131	235	46	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	27	26	7	0	0	2	1	8	0	0	0	269	296	500	796	231	312	30	4	348	121	+1	+0	-1	+2	+1	0.2
2007	23	A+ MLE	Potomac Nationals	—	260	237	49	10	0	11	15	92	4	21	5	207	266	388	654	181	267	35	6	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	244	218	52	9	2	11	17	76	6	14	3	239	311	450	761	211	291	31	7	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	180	157	32	5	3	6	20	34	1	13	4	204	298	389	686	185	223	19	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	102	89	22	4	1	4	12	32	1	6	1	247	343	449	793	202	340	31	12	352	125	+3	+1	+4	+2	+2	1.3
2009	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	448	401	86	8	5	11	37	163	6	35	8	214	291	342	632	127	322	36	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	131	106	15	6	0	3	23	43	0	5	1	142	295	283	578	142	200	33	18	269	69	-5	+1	+4	-4	+3	-0.2
2010	26	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	272	242	57	13	0	5	23	92	4	16	7	236	312	351	664	116	354	34	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	204	185	39	7	1	13	18	87	1	11	2	211	284	470	755	259	303	43	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	352	315	72	12	3	19	32	114	3	9	4	229	306	467	772	238	292	32	9	335	113	+5	+0	+5	+1	+8	1.9
2013	29	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	262	234	60	16	3	8	23	78	4	6	2	256	333	453	786	197	347	30	9	343	119	+6	+0	-5	-3	+6	0.4
2013	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	32	29	5	0	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	172	226	276	502	103	160	25	6	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	23	21	1	0	0	0	1	10	0	1	0	48	91	48	139		60	43	4	51	-79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	45	40	6	1	0	0	2	20	2	0	1	150	227	175	402	25	286	44	4	194	17	-4	-0	-4	-3	+1	-1.1
2014	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	233	214	42	8	1	5	13	102	3	3	2	196	252	313	565	117	319	44	6	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	274	250	54	8	2	8	19	76	3	2	1	216	279	360	639	144	269	28	7	281	76	-8	+0	-0	-3	+6	-0.5
2016	32	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	253	228	43	6	0	4	16	75	5	4	4	189	257	268	525	79	249	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	68	61	8	1	2	1	5	31	2	1	0	131	221	262	483	131	241	46	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A RAW	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	68	58	10	2	2	1	8	23	2	1	0	172	294	328	622	155	265	34	12	286	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	531	481	107	19	2	23	33	177	10	35	8	222	286	414	700	191	292	33	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	531	463	130	25	2	29	51	130	10	35	8	281	365	531	896	251	325	24	10	387	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	180	157	32	5	3	6	20	34	1	13	4	204	298	389	686	185	218	19	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	—	180	146	34	6	3	7	31	28	1	13	4	233	371	459	830	226	239	16	17	365	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	490	108	12	6	15	49	195	7	41	9	220	300	361	662	141	331	35	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	550	473	115	14	6	17	66	168	7	41	9	243	344	406	750	163	339	31	12	336	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	403	348	72	19	0	8	46	135	4	21	8	207	307	330	637	124	309	33	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	403	334	81	23	0	9	60	118	4	21	8	243	364	392	757	150	344	29	15	341	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	204	185	39	7	1	13	18	87	1	11	2	211	284	470	755	259	306	43	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	204	177	46	8	1	16	26	72	1	11	2	260	358	588	945	328	337	35	13	407	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	352	315	72	12	3	19	32	114	3	9	4	229	306	467	772	238	288	32	9	335	113	+5	+0	+5	+1	+8	1.9
2012	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	352	315	72	13	3	18	32	114	3	9	4	229	306	460	766	232	292	32	9	335	113	+5	+0	+5	+1	+8	1.9
2013	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	317	284	65	16	3	8	26	96	4	7	2	229	303	391	693	162	311	30	8	307	94	-2	+1	-5	-3	+7	-0.3
2013	29	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	317	283	65	16	3	8	27	92	4	7	2	230	306	392	698	163	306	29	9	310	94	-2	+1	-5	-3	+7	-0.3
2014	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	278	254	48	9	1	5	15	122	5	3	3	189	248	291	540	102	328	44	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	278	247	65	12	1	8	22	95	5	3	3	263	336	417	753	154	385	34	8	333	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	274	250	54	8	2	8	19	76	3	2	1	216	279	360	639	144	275	28	7	281	76	-8	+0	-0	-3	+6	-0.5
2015	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	274	249	52	8	2	7	20	76	3	2	1	209	276	341	617	133	269	28	7	277	76	-8	+0	-0	-3	+6	-0.5
2016	32	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	253	228	43	6	0	4	16	75	5	4	4	189	257	268	525	79	257	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	253	219	48	7	0	5	25	61	5	4	4	219	313	320	633	100	276	24	10	289	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	Savannah Sand Gnats	—	68	61	8	1	2	1	5	31	2	1	0	131	221	262	483	131	235	46	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	531	483	107	19	2	23	33	177	10	35	8	222	286	412	698	190	280	33	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	180	157	32	5	3	6	20	34	1	13	4	204	298	389	686	185	223	19	11	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	550	489	108	12	6	15	49	195	7	41	9	221	300	362	662	141	325	35	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	403	350	72	19	0	8	46	135	4	21	8	206	307	329	635	123	304	33	11	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees	—	204	183	39	7	1	13	18	87	1	11	2	213	284	475	760	262	303	43	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	352	314	72	12	3	19	32	114	3	9	4	229	306	468	774	239	292	32	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	317	284	65	16	3	8	26	96	4	7	2	229	303	391	693	162	307	30	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	278	256	48	9	1	5	15	122	5	3	3	188	248	289	537	102	314	44	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	274	250	54	8	2	8	19	76	3	2	1	216	279	360	639	144	269	28	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	253	230	43	6	0	4	16	75	5	4	4	187	257	265	522	78	249	30	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1193	1057	233	48	9	41	115	371	13	28	10	220	305	399	704	179	294	31	10	313	82	-3	+2	+3	-9	+26	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	127	26	5	22	63	202	7	15	5	220	305	398	703	177	295	31	10	313	82	-2	+1	+1	-5	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3410	3053	648	114	23	110	279	1142	45	147	45	212	288	373	661	160	295	33	8	289	82	-3	+2	+3	-9	+26	1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	123	22	4	21	53	218	9	28	9	211	288	371	659	160	293	34	8	289	82	-2	+1	+1	-5	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 253 PAwOBA .285 → .235 (−50)K% 24.1% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.11%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	29.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷1.007	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.38%
HBP% /PA	1.98%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.75%
Singles /BIP	22.78%	÷0.957	×0.930	×1.007	×0.942	20.99%
Doubles /BIP	4.43%	÷0.923	×0.830	×1.007	×0.942	3.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.912	×0.970	×1.007	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.16%	÷0.994	×0.840	—	×0.942	2.52%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .285 → .235; ISO .100 → .082; BABIP .276 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 233 PAwOBA .355 → .244 (−110)K% 32.2% → 43.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.19%	÷0.945	×1.290	—	—	43.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.58%	÷1.096	×0.710	—	×0.962	5.35%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	1.21%
Singles /BIP	29.55%	÷1.027	×0.900	×0.970	×0.962	24.17%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.969	×0.810	×0.970	×0.962	6.50%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.970	×0.962	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	6.06%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×0.962	4.56%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 89, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .355 → .244; ISO .179 → .120; BABIP .402 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 32 PAwOBA .245 → .194 (−51)K% 18.8% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷0.938	×1.290	—	—	25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷1.003	×0.710	—	×0.972	6.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.984	×0.900	—	×0.972	16.17%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.008	×0.810	—	×0.972	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.55%	÷1.002	×0.780	—	×0.972	3.44%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 88, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .245 → .194; ISO .107 → .080; BABIP .182 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 23 PAwOBA .071 → .051 (−20)K% 34.8% → 42.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.78%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	42.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷1.117	×0.700	—	×0.948	2.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×0.948	0.00%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.040	×0.920	—	×0.948	6.45%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.067	×0.840	—	×0.948	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.106	×0.800	—	×0.948	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 101, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .071 → .051; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .071 → .060. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees · 204 PAwOBA .396 → .316 (−80)K% 35.3% → 42.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.29%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	42.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.75%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.68%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.46%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.976	×0.930	×0.995	×0.992	18.82%
Doubles /BIP	7.62%	÷0.931	×0.830	×0.995	×0.992	6.71%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷1.113	×0.970	×0.995	×0.992	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	15.24%	÷0.965	×0.840	—	×0.992	13.16%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 123, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .396 → .316; ISO .328 → .265; BABIP .337 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 272 PAwOBA .359 → .292 (−67)K% 27.6% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.57%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	33.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.027	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.43%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.39%
Singles /BIP	27.74%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.990	×1.003	25.63%
Doubles /BIP	10.97%	÷1.043	×0.830	×0.990	×1.003	8.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.918	×0.970	×0.990	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.87%	÷1.055	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.09%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .359 → .292; ISO .152 → .120; BABIP .403 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 448 PAwOBA .323 → .278 (−45)K% 30.4% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.36%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	36.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.61%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.15%
HBP% /PA	1.34%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.28%
Singles /BIP	26.21%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.023	×1.018	25.38%
Doubles /BIP	4.03%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.023	×1.018	3.48%
Triples /BIP	2.02%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.023	×1.018	2.04%
Home runs /BIP	5.24%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	4.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .323 → .278; ISO .154 → .133; BABIP .339 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAHarrisburg Senators · 180 PAwOBA .357 → .306 (−51)K% 15.6% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.56%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.11%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.998	11.26%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.47%
Singles /BIP	15.25%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.002	×0.998	14.79%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.002	×0.998	4.37%
Triples /BIP	2.54%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.002	×0.998	2.41%
Home runs /BIP	5.93%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.998	4.62%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .357 → .306; ISO .226 → .197; BABIP .239 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).