Noelvi Marte

RF Louisville Bats

Age 25 R/R 6'2" / 216 lbs AAA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 2.360 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAA/INTL2 orgs	162	.200/.255/.287	2	6	49	—	.151/.151/.170
2024	22	MLBCIN	242	.210/.249/.301	4	9	52	-1.4
2025	23	AAA/AACIN	70	.310/.420/.500	1	3	125	—	.283/.377/.450
2025	23	MLBCIN	360	.263/.302/.448	14	10	104	0.3
2026	24	AAA/INTL2 orgs	312	.339/.378/.505	10	13	118	—	.300/.331/.422
2026	24	MLBCIN	201	.189/.230/.321	6	7	48	-1.3
2027PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBCIN	107	.240/.283/.387	3	5	83	-0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBCIN	206	.240/.283/.387	6	10	83	-0.0
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBCIN	210	.239/.282/.384	6	10	82	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.360First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$0.6M2029Arb-2$1M2030Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed90

Bat Spd50

Barrel%43

Avg EV34

xwOBA24

CompsOswald Peraza (age 24) · Jake Marisnick (age 25) · Brenton Doyle (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8383vR 80

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .283 / .387

PA107

HR3

SB5

K%24

BB%5

BABIP289

ISO130

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

190.226

POWER50

Barrel%

437.3

Avg EV

3487.9

Bat Spd

5071.3

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 602 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

149

453

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

260

304

▶R

ISO

065

174

▶▶R

BABIP

329

296

◀L

31.5%

24.9%

▶▶R

BB%

7.4%

3.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.360 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	299	262	81	18	4	9	29	55	1	17	7	309	380	511	892	202	351	18	10	383	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	33	31	9	4	0	0	2	11	0	1	0	290	333	419	753	129	450	33	6	335	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	Modesto Nuts	—	478	413	112	24	2	17	58	106	6	23	7	271	369	462	831	191	326	22	12	370	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	16	15	5	1	0	0	1	5	0	3	0	333	375	400	775	67	500	31	6	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	520	448	125	23	0	19	59	107	9	23	9	279	374	458	832	179	325	21	11	369	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	84	71	15	1	0	2	12	14	0	1	0	211	325	310	635	99	232	17	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	123	114	36	7	0	3	8	25	1	6	2	316	366	456	822	140	384	20	7	366	131	+5	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.8
2023	21	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	167	143	40	10	3	3	20	31	1	8	2	280	372	455	826	175	330	19	12	361	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	222	196	55	10	1	8	22	38	2	10	2	281	359	464	823	184	309	17	10	363	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	17	17	7	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	412	412	471	882	59	467	12	0	395	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	229	48	9	0	4	9	75	3	9	3	210	249	301	550	92	291	31	4	248	52	-14	+1	-7	+1	+5	-1.4
2024	22	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	53	53	8	1	0	0	0	15	0	1	0	151	151	170	321	19	211	28	0	144	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	109	97	22	4	1	2	9	22	2	5	1	227	306	351	656	124	270	20	8	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	360	339	89	17	2	14	16	85	3	10	3	263	302	448	750	186	310	24	4	328	104	+2	+1	-3	-5	+8	0.3
2025	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	53	43	14	6	0	1	8	7	1	3	1	326	442	535	977	209	361	13	15	423	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	17	15	4	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	267	353	400	753	133	286	6	6	339	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	201	190	36	7	0	6	10	52	0	7	2	189	230	321	551	132	226	26	5	245	48	-12	+1	-0	-5	+4	-1.3
2026	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	279	259	86	12	2	9	14	46	2	10	1	332	371	498	869	166	370	16	5	379	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	33	30	12	2	0	1	2	6	0	3	0	400	438	567	1.004	167	458	18	6	430	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	926	872	209	40	2	27	43	237	7	32	10	240	281	383	664	143	297	26	5	294	85	-16	+2	-12	-7	+20	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	299	271	50	11	2	4	20	67	1	17	7	185	243	284	527	100	216	22	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	—	33	32	7	3	0	0	1	15	0	1	0	219	242	312	555	94	403	45	3	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	478	431	99	20	2	15	40	141	6	23	7	230	304	390	694	160	301	29	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	520	463	107	15	0	15	44	130	9	23	9	231	310	361	671	130	281	25	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	123	114	36	7	0	3	8	25	1	6	2	316	366	456	822	140	384	20	7	362	131	+5	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.8
2023	21	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	167	148	38	9	3	2	15	37	1	8	2	257	329	399	728	142	315	22	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	222	204	52	9	1	7	14	48	2	10	2	255	309	412	721	157	295	22	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	229	48	9	0	4	9	75	3	9	3	210	249	301	550	92	291	31	4	245	52	-14	+1	-7	+1	+5	-1.4
2024	22	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	53	53	8	1	0	0	0	18	0	1	0	151	151	170	321	19	210	34	0	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	360	339	88	17	2	13	16	85	3	10	3	260	299	437	735	177	310	24	4	322	104	+2	+1	-3	-5	+8	0.3
2025	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	53	45	13	5	0	1	6	9	1	3	1	289	385	467	851	178	325	17	11	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	17	15	4	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	267	353	400	753	133	271	6	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	201	190	36	7	0	6	10	52	0	7	2	189	230	321	551	132	226	26	5	240	48	-12	+1	-0	-5	+4	-1.3
2026	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	279	263	79	10	2	6	10	55	2	10	1	300	331	422	753	122	352	20	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	299	271	50	11	2	4	20	67	1	17	7	185	243	284	527	100	222	22	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	299	262	81	18	4	9	29	55	1	17	7	309	380	511	892	202	351	18	10	383	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	527	477	109	23	2	16	43	161	6	27	7	229	300	386	686	157	309	31	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	527	459	126	29	2	17	61	122	6	27	7	275	367	458	824	183	340	23	12	367	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	604	539	124	18	0	17	51	151	9	24	9	230	307	358	665	128	285	25	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	604	519	140	24	0	21	71	121	9	24	9	270	367	437	805	168	312	20	12	359	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	529	482	131	27	4	12	38	114	4	25	6	272	330	419	749	147	330	22	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA RAW	4 teams	—	529	470	138	28	4	14	50	96	4	25	6	294	366	460	826	166	340	18	9	364	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	404	385	76	14	0	5	12	127	5	15	4	197	231	273	504	75	278	31	3	224	38	-30	+1	-7	+1	+9	-2.6
2024	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	404	379	78	14	1	6	18	112	5	15	4	206	251	296	547	90	274	28	4	247	38	-30	+1	-7	+1	+9	-2.6
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	430	400	105	23	3	14	22	95	5	13	4	263	309	440	749	177	310	22	5	327	107	+4	+1	-3	-5	+9	0.7
2025	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	430	397	107	23	3	15	25	93	5	13	4	270	321	456	777	186	315	22	6	341	107	+4	+1	-3	-5	+9	0.7
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	484	124	19	2	13	21	115	2	20	3	256	290	384	674	128	307	22	4	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	513	479	134	21	2	16	26	104	2	20	3	280	320	432	752	152	323	20	5	330	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	299	276	50	11	2	4	20	67	1	17	7	181	243	279	522	98	216	22	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	527	473	109	23	2	16	43	161	6	27	7	230	300	389	689	159	308	31	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	604	539	124	18	0	17	51	151	9	24	9	230	307	358	665	128	281	25	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	529	482	131	27	4	12	38	114	4	25	6	272	330	419	749	147	323	22	7	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	404	384	76	14	0	5	12	127	5	15	4	198	231	273	505	76	277	31	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	430	400	105	23	3	14	22	95	5	13	4	263	309	440	749	177	310	22	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	485	124	19	2	13	21	115	2	20	3	256	290	384	673	128	299	22	4	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	404	384	76	14	0	5	12	127	5	15	4	198	231	273	505	76	277	31	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	430	400	105	23	3	14	22	95	5	13	4	263	309	440	749	177	310	22	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	485	124	19	2	13	21	115	2	20	3	256	290	384	673	128	299	22	4	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	45%	480	451	106	17	2	14	23	117	3	24	5	237	280	378	658	140	288	24	5	291	83	-10	+3	+1	-5	+10	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	45%	107	100	23	4	0	3	5	26	1	5	1	240	283	387	670	147	289	24	5	296	83	-2	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	404	378	91	15	2	12	20	98	3	20	4	237	280	377	658	140	288	24	5	291	83	-8	+2	+1	-4	+9	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	399	373	88	14	2	11	20	98	3	19	4	236	279	375	654	138	287	25	5	289	82	-9	+2	+1	-4	+9	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	391	366	86	14	2	11	19	97	3	17	3	234	277	370	647	136	286	25	5	287	80	-9	+2	+0	-4	+8	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	376	353	81	13	1	10	18	94	2	14	3	232	274	364	638	132	285	25	5	283	78	-10	+2	-0	-4	+8	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	206	193	46	7	1	6	10	50	1	10	2	240	283	387	670	147	289	24	5	296	83	-4	+1	+1	-2	+4	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	210	197	46	7	1	6	10	51	1	10	2	239	282	384	666	145	288	24	5	294	82	-4	+1	+1	-2	+5	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	209	196	46	7	1	6	10	52	1	9	2	237	280	379	659	142	287	25	5	291	80	-5	+1	+0	-2	+5	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	198	185	44	7	1	6	10	49	1	7	2	234	277	373	650	138	286	25	5	287	78	-5	+1	-0	-2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1749	1643	391	68	6	51	83	439	11	68	18	238	279	380	659	142	293	25	5	293	82	-35	+6	-11	-16	+38	-1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	611	145	25	2	19	31	163	4	25	7	237	279	378	657	141	292	25	5	293	82	-13	+2	-4	-6	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5114	4730	1118	200	21	132	296	1275	45	223	56	236	288	371	659	135	293	25	6	290	82	-57	+12	-9	-26	+59	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	142	25	3	17	38	162	6	28	7	236	289	373	662	136	293	25	6	290	82	-13	+3	-2	-6	+14	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 279 PAwOBA .373 → .332 (−41)K% 16.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.49%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.02%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	3.58%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.70%
Singles /BIP	29.58%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.018	×1.033	28.91%
Doubles /BIP	5.63%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.018	×1.033	4.92%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.018	×1.033	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	4.23%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.06%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .373 → .332; ISO .166 → .131; BABIP .370 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALouisville Bats · 53 PAwOBA .421 → .370 (−51)K% 13.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.21%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	16.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.09%	÷1.002	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.89%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.86%
Singles /BIP	19.44%	÷1.049	×0.930	—	×1.048	18.06%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×1.048	14.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.26%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .421 → .370; ISO .209 → .187; BABIP .361 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 17 PAwOBA .331 → .299 (−32)K% 5.9% → 7.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	5.88%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	7.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.087	×0.680	—	×1.012	3.72%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	5.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.963	×0.920	—	×1.012	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.092	×0.910	—	×1.012	0.00%
Triples /BIP	7.14%	÷1.001	×0.880	—	×1.012	6.35%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.021	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .331 → .299; ISO .133 → .121; BABIP .286 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALouisville Bats · 53 PAwOBA .140 → .128 (−12)K% 28.3% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.30%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	34.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.050	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.42%	÷0.995	×0.930	×1.028	×1.050	18.60%
Doubles /BIP	2.63%	÷0.964	×0.830	×1.028	×1.050	2.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.028	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .140 → .128; ISO .019 → .016; BABIP .211 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 222 PAwOBA .355 → .310 (−45)K% 17.1% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.12%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.46%	÷1.069	×0.680	—	×1.042	6.27%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.79%
Singles /BIP	22.78%	÷0.986	×0.920	×1.000	×1.042	22.15%
Doubles /BIP	6.33%	÷1.004	×0.910	×1.000	×1.042	5.98%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.150	×0.880	×1.000	×1.042	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	5.06%	÷1.017	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.15%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .355 → .310; ISO .184 → .157; BABIP .309 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 167 PAwOBA .359 → .320 (−38)K% 18.6% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.56%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	22.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.98%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.74%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.59%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.998	×0.930	×0.996	×1.050	20.89%
Doubles /BIP	8.93%	÷0.938	×0.830	×0.996	×1.050	8.26%
Triples /BIP	2.68%	÷1.042	×0.970	×0.996	×1.050	2.61%
Home runs /BIP	2.68%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .359 → .320; ISO .175 → .153; BABIP .330 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 520 PAwOBA .362 → .295 (−67)K% 20.6% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.58%	÷1.047	×1.270	—	—	24.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.15%	÷0.958	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.49%
HBP% /PA	1.73%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	1.40%
Singles /BIP	24.34%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.989	×1.027	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	6.74%	÷1.217	×0.810	×0.989	×1.027	4.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.028	×0.850	×0.989	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.57%	÷1.058	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.33%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .362 → .295; ISO .179 → .133; BABIP .325 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AModesto Nuts · 478 PAwOBA .360 → .303 (−57)K% 22.2% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.18%	÷1.019	×1.360	—	—	29.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.92%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.39%
HBP% /PA	1.26%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.01%
Singles /BIP	22.48%	÷1.020	×0.920	×1.017	×1.030	21.24%
Doubles /BIP	7.82%	÷1.014	×0.830	×1.017	×1.030	6.70%
Triples /BIP	0.65%	÷0.903	×0.910	×1.017	×1.030	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	5.54%	÷0.861	×0.800	—	×1.030	5.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 81, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .360 → .303; ISO .191 → .169; BABIP .326 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	3.0	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
/162	664	18	7	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	2.8	1,856	53	74	239	278	380	-16	-20	0.4	0.9
/162	664	19	26	-5.7	-7.1	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#5Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0
#6Carlos Martinez'88-'95 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,586 PA	2.4	1,586	25	10	256*	291*	383*	-18	-15	-2.5	-2.5
/162	664	10	4	-7.4	-6.2	-1.0	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Noelvi Marte (OGILVIE)	25	45	50	60	40	235/278/374	139	288	7	12	24%	5%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Oswald Peraza 2024 · MLB	24	45→54	48→50	55→60	43	230/292/365	135	286	16	26	25%	6%	86	+0.3	213/280/329	116	277	14	23	27%	7%	73	-0.6	205/271/309	103	274	13	24	29%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Jake Marisnick 2016 · MLB	25	48→56	46→60	56→55	38	236/280/363	127	301	13	29	26%	4%	80	-0.1	225/280/389	164	297	20	21	30%	6%	87	+0.4	229/291/435	206	302	27	18	33%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Brenton Doyle 2024 · MLB	26	41→47	48→50	56→55	34	208/252/346	139	308	17	22	37%	5%	66	-1.1	229/279/373	144	299	17	24	28%	6%	82	+0.0	234/284/378	144	296	17	27	27%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2022 · MLB	25	44→48	48→50	54→55	43	220/290/366	146	298	15	19	30%	7%	86	+0.3	216/280/347	131	293	13	21	29%	7%	77	-0.3	227/297/394	166	289	18	26	27%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Daniel Ortmeier 2006 · MLB	25	47→51	48→50	55	43	236/302/377	141	292	15	24	24%	6%	93	+0.8	226/278/350	124	283	12	18	24%	5%	77	-0.3	228/286/338	110	295	10	15	25%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Michael A. Taylor 2016 · MLB	25	47→54	48→55	55→60	39	233/285/372	139	331	16	24	34%	6%	84	+0.2	233/281/383	150	325	17	26	32%	6%	86	+0.3	240/297/382	142	309	19	14	28%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Joey Wiemer 2024 · MLB	25	42→44	51→55	53→55	44	216/285/378	162	283	19	19	30%	8%	86	+0.3	200/275/316	116	285	12	15	32%	8%	69	-0.9	188/266/285	98	276	10	14	33%	8%	56	-1.2
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	195/258/316	120	275	10	24	32%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/348	126	302	12	17	29%	5%	76	-0.4	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Óscar Mercado 2020 · MLB	25	52→55	46→50	55→60	45	255/308/391	136	304	13	27	21%	6%	97	+1.1	227/289/365	138	268	14	21	20%	7%	84	+0.2	223/288/367	144	263	14	26	21%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Lane Adams 2016 · AAA	26	45	45→50	56→60	43	225/278/348	123	285	13	27	26%	6%	76	-0.4	218/273/338	120	308	12	33	32%	6%	72	-0.7	187/251/323	136	289	16	28	39%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2017 · MLB	25	43→51	47→55	59→55	37	216/257/360	144	302	14	26	33%	5%	71	-0.8	212/256/345	133	303	12	20	33%	5%	67	-1.1	211/258/373	162	290	17	14	32%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	44	48→50	58→60	47	221/295/372	151	285	15	28	27%	8%	88	+0.5	208/279/348	140	290	14	25	31%	8%	77	-0.3	192/263/324	133	273	13	24	33%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Brent Lillibridge 2009 · MLB	25	47→54	43→50	59→60	43	228/283/346	118	296	9	28	26%	6%	78	-0.3	222/283/338	116	293	11	29	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/280/356	134	299	17	36	30%	6%	79	-0.1
✕José Rodríguez 2024 · AAA	23	47→54	47→50	56→55	40	240/272/375	134	290	15	28	23%	4%	80	-0.2	238/276/350	112	288	11	22	21%	5%	75	-0.5	255/293/345	89	297	7	25	16%	4%	78	-0.1
✕Jake Slaughter 2023 · AA	26	45→48	47→50	54→55	40	223/291/354	131	309	15	24	32%	6%	84	+0.1	222/289/361	139	307	16	20	31%	7%	84	+0.1	214/282/350	136	296	16	20	32%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→50	47→50	58→55	39	227/280/361	134	302	15	24	30%	5%	80	-0.2	235/298/376	141	316	15	23	29%	7%	91	+0.6	233/298/380	148	312	15	24	29%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	48→58	49→50	58→65	43	237/301/382	145	322	17	33	31%	7%	93	+0.8	243/315/357	114	332	10	40	27%	9%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
●Peter Bourjos 2011 · MLB	24	51→56	46→50	63→60	42	249/291/387	138	301	12	28	22%	4%	90	+0.6	249/304/389	140	312	12	20	23%	6%	95	+1.0	250/311/388	138	319	11	18	24%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Kyle Isbel 2022 · MLB	25	47→52	46→50	56→55	45	234/298/370	136	298	14	20	26%	7%	89	+0.5	231/287/369	138	287	13	16	23%	6%	84	+0.2	237/288/363	126	282	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.1

Noelvi Marte

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps