Óscar Mercado

RF Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 32 R/R 6'1" / 197 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 8.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	442	.212/.305/.382	14	20	57	—	.180/.249/.334
2025	30	AAAPHI	477	.249/.373/.373	11	40	66	—	.207/.292/.293
2026	31	AAAPHI	84	.141/.265/.183	1	3	3	—	.122/.217/.162
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBPHI	12	.226/.303/.345	0	1	83	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBPHI	29	.218/.294/.327	1	1	75	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service8.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

Speed63

xwOBA22

Barrel%21

Avg EV12

CompsJonathan Davis (age 32) · Jason Repko (age 31) · Wynton Bernard (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .303 / .345

PA12

HR0

K%17

BB%8

BABIP266

ISO135

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT55

xAVG

100.218

POWER45

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

1286.2

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

6328.0

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 8.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	GCL Cardinals	—	186	163	34	5	4	1	17	39	3	12	4	209	295	307	602	98	262	21	9	273	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	274	245	55	9	1	3	20	37	8	26	7	224	304	306	610	82	252	14	7	282	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	513	472	120	23	3	4	23	61	8	50	19	254	300	341	641	87	282	12	4	285	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	506	442	95	23	1	0	44	71	9	33	20	215	299	271	570	57	253	14	9	262	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	523	477	137	20	4	13	32	112	9	38	19	287	344	428	771	140	348	21	6	342	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	102	87	23	5	0	0	14	18	0	6	0	264	366	322	688	57	329	18	14	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	546	485	135	26	2	8	49	87	5	37	12	278	351	390	740	111	323	16	9	331	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	482	438	118	25	3	15	28	84	5	15	4	269	321	443	764	174	300	17	6	330	110	+6	+1	+3	+2	+10	2.4
2019	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	140	119	35	10	1	4	16	32	4	14	3	294	396	496	891	202	373	23	11	393	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	93	86	11	1	0	1	5	27	0	3	0	128	176	174	350	47	169	29	5	161	-5	-12	+1	+1	+0	+2	-0.8
2021	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	238	214	48	11	1	6	21	42	2	7	1	224	300	369	669	145	253	18	9	300	90	-3	+1	+0	-5	+5	-0.1
2021	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	203	171	37	13	1	5	23	32	6	9	1	216	330	392	722	175	235	16	11	322	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	128	121	25	6	1	4	5	29	1	2	2	207	244	372	616	165	236	23	4	270	70	-5	-0	-3	-3	+3	-0.9
2022	27	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	190	167	47	7	3	5	18	28	4	9	4	281	365	449	814	168	311	15	9	362	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	32	31	9	3	0	0	1	4	0	2	1	290	312	387	700	97	333	12	3	312	94	-0	+0	-0	-4	+1	-0.4
2023	28	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	347	308	92	21	3	14	29	73	6	28	5	299	370	523	893	224	348	21	8	387	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	26	19	3	0	0	0	7	5	0	1	1	158	385	158	543		214	19	27	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	361	311	69	11	5	12	36	60	6	16	4	222	314	405	720	183	232	17	10	315	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	INTL	Criollos de Caguas	—	81	71	12	2	0	2	7	8	2	4	2	169	263	282	544	113	161	10	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	477	389	97	13	1	11	69	68	8	40	10	249	373	373	746	123	272	14	14	336	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	84	71	10	0	0	1	9	19	3	3	3	141	265	183	448	42	173	23	11	223	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	973	890	211	46	5	26	60	186	8	29	8	237	291	388	679	151	270	19	6	298	88	-14	+3	+1	-10	+21	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	—	186	169	25	3	3	1	11	56	3	12	4	148	213	219	432	71	206	30	6	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	274	252	42	6	1	2	13	53	8	26	7	167	231	222	453	56	200	19	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	513	480	106	18	3	3	15	84	8	50	19	221	256	290	546	69	251	16	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	506	452	82	22	1	0	34	105	9	33	20	181	253	235	487	53	224	21	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	523	489	117	16	3	8	20	138	9	38	19	239	282	333	615	94	312	26	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	546	497	130	23	2	6	37	103	5	37	12	262	319	352	671	91	312	19	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	482	438	119	25	4	15	28	84	5	15	4	272	323	450	772	178	300	17	6	331	110	+6	+1	+3	+2	+10	2.4
2019	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	140	124	32	8	1	4	10	39	4	14	3	258	331	435	766	177	336	28	7	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	93	86	11	1	0	1	5	27	0	3	0	128	176	174	350	47	169	29	5	161	-5	-12	+1	+1	+0	+2	-0.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	238	214	48	11	1	6	21	42	2	7	1	224	300	369	669	145	253	18	9	301	90	-3	+1	+0	-5	+5	-0.1
2021	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	203	178	32	11	1	3	16	38	6	9	1	180	270	303	573	124	210	19	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	128	121	25	6	1	4	5	29	1	2	2	207	244	372	616	165	236	23	4	271	70	-5	-0	-3	-3	+3	-0.9
2022	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	190	172	43	5	3	4	13	32	4	9	4	250	317	384	701	134	285	17	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	32	31	9	3	0	0	1	4	0	2	1	290	312	387	700	97	333	12	3	307	94	-0	+0	-0	-4	+1	-0.4
2023	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	347	317	75	17	2	10	20	87	6	28	5	237	294	397	692	161	288	25	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	361	323	58	9	4	11	24	70	6	16	4	180	249	334	584	155	182	19	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	477	416	86	10	1	8	42	82	8	40	10	207	292	293	585	87	229	17	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	84	74	9	0	0	1	6	23	3	3	3	122	217	162	379	41	150	27	7	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	—	186	169	25	3	3	1	11	56	3	12	4	148	213	219	432	71	209	30	6	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	GCL Cardinals	—	186	163	34	5	4	1	17	39	3	12	4	209	295	307	602	98	262	21	9	273	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	274	252	42	6	1	2	13	53	8	26	7	167	231	222	453	56	202	19	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	—	274	245	55	9	1	3	20	37	8	26	7	224	304	306	610	82	252	14	7	282	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	513	480	106	18	3	3	15	84	8	50	19	221	256	290	546	69	259	16	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	513	472	120	23	3	4	23	61	8	50	19	254	300	341	641	87	282	12	4	285	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	506	452	82	22	1	0	34	105	9	33	20	181	253	235	487	53	233	21	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	506	442	95	23	1	0	44	71	9	33	20	215	299	271	570	57	253	14	9	262	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	625	586	140	19	4	9	24	165	9	44	19	239	279	331	611	92	314	26	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	625	564	160	25	4	13	46	130	9	44	19	284	347	411	759	128	345	21	7	338	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	546	497	130	23	2	6	37	103	5	37	12	262	319	352	671	91	317	19	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	—	546	485	135	26	2	8	49	87	5	37	12	278	351	390	740	111	323	16	9	331	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	622	563	151	33	5	19	38	123	9	29	7	268	325	446	770	178	311	20	6	330	109	+7	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.9
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	622	557	153	35	4	19	44	116	9	29	7	275	338	454	792	180	315	19	7	344	109	+7	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.9
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	93	86	11	1	0	1	5	27	0	3	0	128	176	174	350	47	169	29	5	161	-5	-12	+1	+1	+0	+2	-0.8
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	93	86	11	1	0	1	5	27	0	3	0	128	176	174	350	47	169	29	5	161	-5	-12	+1	+1	+0	+2	-0.8
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	441	392	81	22	2	10	37	80	8	16	2	207	288	349	638	143	234	18	8	284	78	-11	+2	+0	-5	+10	-0.4
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	441	385	85	24	2	11	44	74	8	16	2	221	314	379	693	158	245	17	10	311	78	-11	+2	+0	-5	+10	-0.4
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	318	293	68	11	4	8	18	61	5	11	6	232	288	379	667	147	265	19	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	318	288	72	13	4	9	23	57	5	11	6	250	316	417	733	167	281	18	7	325	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	405	372	90	21	3	10	23	98	6	31	7	242	297	395	692	153	300	24	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	405	358	104	24	3	14	37	82	6	31	7	291	367	492	858	201	340	20	9	375	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	442	396	70	11	5	13	29	86	8	20	6	177	247	328	575	152	187	19	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	442	382	81	13	5	14	43	68	8	20	6	212	305	382	687	170	218	15	10	303	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	477	416	86	10	1	8	42	82	8	40	10	207	292	293	585	87	235	17	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	477	389	97	13	1	11	69	68	8	40	10	249	373	373	746	123	272	14	14	336	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	84	74	9	0	0	1	6	23	3	3	3	122	217	162	379	41	157	27	7	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	84	71	10	0	0	1	9	19	3	3	3	141	265	183	448	42	173	23	11	223	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	GCL Cardinals	—	186	170	25	3	3	1	11	56	3	12	4	147	213	218	431	71	206	30	6	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	274	251	42	6	1	2	13	53	8	26	7	167	231	223	454	56	200	19	5	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	513	485	106	18	3	3	15	84	8	50	19	219	256	287	543	68	251	16	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	506	458	82	22	1	0	34	105	9	33	20	179	253	231	484	52	224	21	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	625	587	140	19	4	9	24	165	9	44	19	239	279	330	610	92	312	26	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	546	499	130	23	2	6	37	103	5	37	12	261	319	351	670	90	312	19	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	622	570	151	33	5	19	38	123	9	29	7	265	325	440	765	175	308	20	6	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	93	88	11	1	0	1	5	27	0	3	0	125	176	170	346	45	169	29	5	161	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	441	393	81	22	2	10	37	80	8	16	2	206	288	349	637	142	233	18	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	318	292	68	11	4	8	18	61	5	11	6	233	288	380	668	147	265	19	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	405	373	90	21	3	10	23	98	6	31	7	241	297	394	691	153	292	24	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	442	402	70	11	5	13	29	86	8	20	6	174	247	323	570	149	182	19	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	477	424	86	10	1	8	42	82	8	40	10	203	292	288	580	85	229	17	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	84	75	9	0	0	1	6	23	3	3	3	120	217	160	377	40	150	27	7	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	442	402	70	11	5	13	29	86	8	20	6	174	247	323	570	149	182	19	7	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	477	424	86	10	1	8	42	82	8	40	10	203	292	288	580	85	229	17	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	84	75	9	0	0	1	6	23	3	3	3	120	217	160	377	40	150	27	7	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	PHI	10%	200	179	40	6	1	4	16	41	3	9	3	224	301	340	641	116	265	20	8	290	83	-4	+1	-0	-2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	PHI	10%	12	11	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	226	303	345	648	120	266	17	8	293	83	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	27%	105	94	20	3	0	2	8	22	2	3	1	216	292	322	614	106	258	21	8	279	75	-3	+0	-4	-1	+2	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	27%	29	27	6	1	0	1	2	6	0	1	0	218	294	327	621	110	259	21	7	282	75	-1	+0	-1	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1002	917	217	47	5	27	62	192	8	30	8	237	291	387	678	150	270	19	6	298	66	-15	+3	-0	-10	+22	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	141	30	3	18	40	125	5	19	5	237	291	388	679	151	270	19	6	298	66	-10	+2	-0	-7	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5761	5233	1137	207	35	96	350	1193	93	364	125	217	278	325	604	108	261	21	6	266	66	-20	+3	-4	-12	+26	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	128	23	4	11	39	135	10	41	14	217	277	325	602	108	260	21	6	266	66	-11	+2	-2	-7	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 84 PAwOBA .220 → .173 (−48)K% 22.6% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.62%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	27.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.71%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.04%
HBP% /PA	3.57%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	3.20%
Singles /BIP	17.31%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.984	×0.952	15.07%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.984	×0.952	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.984	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .220 → .173; ISO .042 → .028; BABIP .173 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 477 PAwOBA .332 → .266 (−67)K% 14.3% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.26%	÷0.996	×1.200	—	—	17.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.47%	÷1.075	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.93%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.52%
Singles /BIP	22.43%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.953	×0.962	19.41%
Doubles /BIP	4.05%	÷1.018	×0.830	×0.953	×0.962	3.03%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.953	×0.962	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	3.43%	÷0.947	×0.700	—	×0.962	2.44%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .332 → .266; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .272 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 361 PAwOBA .313 → .252 (−61)K% 16.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.62%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.97%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.59%
HBP% /PA	1.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.52%
Singles /BIP	16.33%	÷1.117	×0.930	×0.978	×0.972	12.93%
Doubles /BIP	4.38%	÷1.049	×0.830	×0.978	×0.972	3.30%
Triples /BIP	1.99%	÷1.070	×0.970	×0.978	×0.972	1.72%
Home runs /BIP	4.78%	÷0.792	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.11%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .313 → .252; ISO .183 → .160; BABIP .232 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 347 PAwOBA .380 → .298 (−83)K% 21.0% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.04%	÷1.003	×1.200	—	—	25.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.36%	÷0.976	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.80%
HBP% /PA	1.73%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.60%
Singles /BIP	22.98%	÷1.021	×0.930	×0.965	×0.982	19.83%
Doubles /BIP	8.94%	÷0.983	×0.830	×0.965	×0.982	7.15%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.965	×0.982	1.02%
Home runs /BIP	5.96%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .380 → .298; ISO .224 → .163; BABIP .348 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 190 PAwOBA .354 → .305 (−49)K% 14.7% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.74%	÷1.036	×1.200	—	—	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.47%	÷0.930	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.97%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.96%
Singles /BIP	23.02%	÷0.941	×0.930	×0.968	×0.992	21.86%
Doubles /BIP	5.04%	÷1.040	×0.830	×0.968	×0.992	3.86%
Triples /BIP	2.16%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.968	×0.992	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	3.60%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 88, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 107, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .354 → .305; ISO .168 → .133; BABIP .311 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 203 PAwOBA .317 → .264 (−54)K% 15.8% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.76%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	18.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.33%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.78%
HBP% /PA	2.96%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.79%
Singles /BIP	12.95%	÷0.949	×0.930	×0.959	×1.003	12.21%
Doubles /BIP	9.35%	÷0.949	×0.830	×0.959	×1.003	7.87%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.959	×1.003	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.60%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.44%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 90, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .317 → .264; ISO .175 → .139; BABIP .235 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 140 PAwOBA .383 → .325 (−58)K% 22.9% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.86%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	27.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷1.089	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.48%
HBP% /PA	2.86%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.77%
Singles /BIP	22.99%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	21.64%
Doubles /BIP	11.49%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	9.41%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	4.60%	÷0.985	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.05%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .383 → .325; ISO .202 → .175; BABIP .373 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColumbus Clippers · 546 PAwOBA .324 → .296 (−28)K% 15.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.93%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.97%	÷0.972	×0.690	—	×1.048	6.68%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.90%
Singles /BIP	24.87%	÷0.974	×0.930	×0.986	×1.048	24.54%
Doubles /BIP	6.53%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.986	×1.048	5.85%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.986	×1.048	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	2.01%	÷1.135	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.56%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 103, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .324 → .296; ISO .111 → .097; BABIP .323 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#3Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#4Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.5	982	27	28	234	286	384	-11	-0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	18	19	-7.1	-0.0	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Óscar Mercado (OGILVIE)	32	55	45	60	60	222/299/337	114	265	3	6	20%	8%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jonathan Davis 2024 · MLB	32	46→52	44→45	55	48	224/301/347	123	296	11	21	27%	9%	85	+0.2	217/291/331	114	310	10	14	31%	8%	78	-0.3	188/273/268	80	289	6	14	34%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Jason Repko 2012 · MLB	31	45→47	45→50	52→55	44	225/283/340	115	281	13	21	25%	6%	76	-0.4	215/275/344	129	278	14	14	27%	7%	75	-0.5	181/242/317	136	231	13	10	27%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Wynton Bernard 2023 · MLB	32	49→59	46→45	62→60	44	242/286/382	140	287	13	30	21%	5%	86	+0.3	236/282/346	110	292	9	33	22%	6%	77	-0.3	231/279/323	91	291	7	39	22%	5%	66	-0.8
✕Tim Locastro 2024 · MLB	32	40→50	45	56→60	40	201/281/322	122	255	12	24	25%	5%	73	-0.6	222/301/340	118	272	11	29	22%	6%	84	+0.2	219/299/327	108	266	9	38	20%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Craig Gentry 2016 · MLB	32	48→55	37→40	57→60	46	228/284/295	67	282	5	29	20%	6%	65	-1.2	218/278/298	80	277	6	24	22%	7%	64	-1.3	218/282/291	73	279	4	29	22%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Sam Fuld 2015 · MLB	33	48→57	41→45	58→60	55	230/302/333	104	261	8	25	15%	9%	82	-0.0	220/293/332	112	258	8	18	17%	9%	78	-0.3	194/270/290	96	231	4	17	17%	9%	61	-0.8
✕Justin Christian 2012 · MLB	32	51→54	43→45	62→65	48	245/296/359	115	273	9	33	14%	6%	85	+0.2	237/287/343	106	266	8	22	14%	6%	78	-0.3	231/281/333	102	259	7	17	14%	5%	71	-0.6
✕Willy Taveras 2015 · AAA	33	46→56	42→45	60→65	44	225/279/329	104	272	9	27	20%	6%	72	-0.7	239/291/343	104	289	8	24	20%	5%	80	-0.2	247/297/348	101	301	8	22	20%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Mike McCoy 2013 · MLB	32	47→57	38→40	53→60	57	223/307/301	78	266	6	28	18%	11%	76	-0.4	202/276/273	71	254	5	23	21%	9%	59	-1.7	184/260/241	57	236	3	23	22%	8%	43	-1.6
✕Doug Glanville 2003 · MLB	32	52→56	42→45	57→55	45	252/285/357	105	274	10	24	13%	4%	80	-0.2	239/273/335	96	260	11	17	13%	4%	70	-0.8	236/261/305	69	254	10	17	12%	3%	59	-0.6
✕Christian Zazueta 2017 · AAA	32	47→54	44→45	58→60	37	236/258/352	117	277	12	29	20%	2%	69	-0.9	224/250/319	95	264	9	27	19%	2%	58	-1.7	220/244/297	77	255	7	27	17%	2%	47	-1.5
✕Adam Engel 2023 · MLB	31	47→48	46→50	54→60	40	233/287/363	130	303	13	23	27%	5%	83	+0.1	212/284/343	131	308	13	23	33%	8%	78	-0.3	180/264/305	125	272	13	30	36%	9%	59	-1.0
✕Eric Young Jr. 2018 · MLB	33	49→59	41→45	58→65	45	236/293/333	97	285	9	32	20%	6%	78	-0.3	226/280/333	107	286	8	19	23%	6%	73	-0.6	217/269/317	101	278	6	17	23%	6%	64	-0.8
✕Vinny Rottino 2012 · AAA	32	52→57	41→45	50→55	50	250/302/352	103	280	8	16	14%	7%	86	+0.3	235/283/356	121	270	11	17	17%	6%	80	-0.2	210/267/304	95	256	9	8	21%	6%	62	-1.0
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2019 · MLB	32	46→50	46→45	56→60	45	228/288/361	133	290	14	23	26%	7%	83	+0.1	198/263/321	123	283	14	16	33%	7%	65	-1.2	148/216/240	92	221	11	15	37%	6%	28	-2.4
✕Juan Carlos Perez 2019 · AAA	32	42→52	43→45	55	39	211/250/324	113	273	10	20	27%	4%	59	-1.6	240/297/353	113	293	10	13	21%	7%	84	+0.2	248/305/353	105	301	8	13	19%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Travis Jankowski 2023 · MLB	32	48→58	37→40	59→65	56	225/316/299	74	289	5	28	22%	11%	80	-0.2	231/312/305	74	287	5	29	19%	10%	79	-0.2	230/309/287	57	284	3	34	18%	9%	73	-0.2
✕Noe Mata 2006 · AAA	32	51→57	45	54→50	44	252/304/375	124	304	12	20	21%	6%	92	+0.7	257/291/369	112	302	11	10	18%	4%	85	+0.2	266/295/373	107	307	11	7	17%	3%	84	+0.1
✕Anthony Seratelli 2014 · AAA	31	46→47	44→45	57→55	49	228/298/344	117	283	12	22	24%	8%	83	+0.1	225/297/338	113	303	11	16	27%	9%	81	-0.1	212/290/309	98	300	8	14	30%	9%	70	-0.4
✕Kristopher Negrón 2018 · MLB	32	44→49	44→45	55	40	216/270/334	117	283	11	17	27%	5%	70	-0.9	221/280/345	124	318	14	14	33%	6%	76	-0.4	215/277/333	118	317	14	14	35%	7%	70	-0.6

Óscar Mercado

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps