Matt Shaw

RF Chicago Cubs
Age 25 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 1.942 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202422AAA/AA2 orgs523.284/.384/.4882131108—.254/.335/.433
202523AAACHC110.286/.409/.56065124—.250/.345/.438
202523MLBCHC437.226/.298/.3941317931.0
202624AAACHC36.303/.361/.3640274—.265/.306/.324
202624MLBCHC202.237/.330/.410541030.3
2027PROJ25MLBCHC238.238/.316/.3987121000.5
2028PROJ92% MLB26MLBCHC344.238/.316/.39810171000.8
2029PROJ92% MLB27MLBCHC341.237/.315/.395917990.7
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.942First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$3M2031Arb-3$3M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026
Speed90
xwOBA45
Barrel%33
Bat Spd19
Avg EV10
Form.239/.333/.401 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .236/.312/.396
CompsRickie Weeks Jr. (age 25) · Nate McLouth (age 26) · Óscar Mercado (age 25)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 105100vR 85
AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .316 / .398
PA238
HR7
SB12
K%21
BB%9
BABIP277
ISO165
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +0.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+0BATRUN: +2.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +1.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -2.6 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.90+0.9WAR
0.00.51.00.90.80.70.50.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$16M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
300.235
POWER
Barrel%
336.0
Avg EV
1085.5
Bat Spd
1968.0
SPEED
Sprint
9029.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%18%▲▲15% over 54 PA (60d) · proj 20%
BB%11%▲▲17% over 54 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.161·.167 over 42 AB (60d) · proj .160
HR/BB3.9%·2.9% over 35 BBE (60d) · proj 4.2%
BABIP.270·.206 over 34 BIP (60d) · proj .273
SLASH.239/.333/.401▲proj .236/.312/.396
Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 502 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
144
358
—
wRC+
137
80
◀◀L
wOBA
371
287
◀◀L
ISO
235
144
◀◀L
BABIP
305
259
◀◀L
K%
19.4%
21.8%
◀L
BB%
8.3%
8.4%
—
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   1.942 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.9$4M+$3M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.8$3M+$2M
2029Arb-1$2M+0.7$2M+$0.9M
2030Arb-2$3M+0.5$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$3M+0.3$0.9M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $3M $11M +$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202321 AATennessee Smokies — 7065 19413 3121 61 292333523856 231314 174 368 110 — — — — — —
202321 A+South Bend Cubs — 8984 33434 4121 71 3934276551.082 262426 134 469 129 — — — — — —
202422 AAAIowa Cubs — 152131 39817 17304 63 298395534929 237340 2011 408 112 — — — — — —
202422 AATennessee Smokies — 371312 8711314 45656 258 279379468847 189304 1812 370 106 — — — — — —
202523 MLBChicago Cubs — 437393 8921313 38942 175 226298394692 168262 229 306 93 -4 +1 +1 +2 +9 1.0
202523 AAAIowa Cubs — 11091 26516 17112 50 286409560970 275270 1015 423 124 — — — — — —
202624 MLBChicago Cubs — 202173 41935 21353 42 237330410740 173267 1710 324 103 +1 +0 +1 -3 +4 0.3
202624 AAAIowa Cubs — 3633 10200 390 20 303361364725 61417 258 331 74 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 639566 13030618 591295 217 230308399707 170264 209 312 97 -2 +1 +1 -1 +14 1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202321 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 7066 18412 2151 61 273304455759 182313 213 331 110 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 8986 28323 2161 71 326348512860 186366 182 359 129 — — — — — —
202422 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 152135 35715 13364 63 259342437779 178316 249 333 112 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLETennessee Smokies — 371325 8210314 33816 258 252332431763 178274 229 325 106 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 437393 8920314 38942 175 226298399697 173262 229 305 93 -4 +1 +1 +2 +9 1.0
202523 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 11096 24414 12132 50 250345438783 188267 1211 352 124 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 202173 41935 21353 42 237330410740 173267 1710 320 103 +1 +0 +1 -3 +4 0.3
202624 AAA MLEIowa Cubs — 3634 9200 2110 20 265306324629 59392 316 278 74 — — — — — —
202321 A+ MLE2 teams — 159152 46735 4302 132 303329487816 184347 193 347 121 — — — — — —
202321 A+ RAW2 teams — 159149 52847 7242 132 349386597983 248378 154 425 121 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 523460 11617418 4611710 3111 252333424757 172295 229 327 108 — — — — — —
202422 AA RAW2 teams — 523443 12619421 629510 3111 284384488871 203314 1812 381 108 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLE2 teams — 547489 11425418 501074 225 233309411720 178261 209 315 99 -1 +2 +1 +2 +12 1.7
202523 MLB RAW2 teams — 547484 11526419 551054 225 238320426746 188264 1910 330 99 -1 +2 +1 +2 +12 1.7
202624 MLB MLE2 teams — 238207 491035 23463 62 237322386708 150278 1910 314 99 -0 +0 +1 -3 +5 0.3
202624 MLB RAW2 teams — 238206 511135 24443 62 248335403738 155289 1810 325 99 -0 +0 +1 -3 +5 0.3
202321 A+ MLE2 teams — 159152 46735 4302 132 303329487816 184343 193 347 121 — — — — — —
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 523462 11617418 4611710 3111 251333422755 171286 229 327 108 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLE2 teams — 547488 11425418 501074 225 234309412721 178263 209 315 99 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE2 teams — 238210 491035 23463 62 233322381703 148286 1910 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202422 AA MLE2 teams — 523462 11617418 4611710 3111 251333422755 171286 229 327 108 — — — — — —
202523 MLB MLE2 teams — 547488 11425418 501074 225 234309412721 178263 209 315 99 — — — — — —
202624 MLB MLE2 teams — 238210 491035 23463 62 233322381703 148286 1910 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202725 MLB MLECHC 100% 449401 9519313 41924 224 236314396711 160273 209 316 100 +0 +3 +2 -5 +10 0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202725 MLB CTXCHC 100% 238212 511027 22492 122 238316398714 160277 219 318 100 +0 +2 +1 -3 +5 0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202826 MLB MLECHC 92% 374333 7915311 34764 184 236314396710 160273 209 316 100 +0 +2 +2 -4 +8 0.8
202927 MLB MLECHC 92% 371331 7815311 34763 183 235313393706 158272 209 315 99 -0 +2 +2 -4 +8 0.8
203028 MLB MLECHC 92% 365325 7515210 34763 163 233311388699 155271 219 312 97 -1 +2 +1 -4 +8 0.6
203129 MLB MLECHC 92% 352314 7214210 32743 133 230308381690 151269 219 308 95 -2 +1 +0 -4 +8 0.3
203230 MLB MLECHC 92% 340303 681329 31733 112 227304373677 146267 219 303 91 -4 +1 -1 -4 +7 0.1
203331 MLB MLECHC 92% 320285 631228 29703 72 222299362660 140263 229 296 87 -5 +1 -1 -3 +7 -0.2
203432 MLB MLECHC 92% 296266 581127 26662 41 215291346638 131257 229 287 80 -7 +0 -2 -3 +6 -0.6
202826 MLB CTXCHC 92% 344306 7415310 32703 173 238316398714 160276 209 318 100 +0 +2 +2 -4 +7 0.8
202927 MLB CTXCHC 92% 341304 711439 31703 173 237315395710 158276 219 316 99 -0 +2 +1 -4 +7 0.7
203028 MLB CTXCHC 92% 336299 701439 31703 153 235313390703 155274 219 313 97 -1 +2 +1 -4 +7 0.5
203129 MLB CTXCHC 92% 324288 661328 30683 122 232310383693 151273 219 309 95 -2 +2 +0 -3 +7 0.3
203230 MLB CTXCHC 92% 313279 641328 28673 102 228306375680 146270 219 304 91 -3 +1 -1 -3 +7 0.1
203331 MLB CTXCHC 92% 294264 591227 26642 62 223300363664 140266 229 297 87 -5 +0 -1 -3 +6 -0.2
203432 MLB CTXCHC 92% 272244 531026 24612 41 217293348641 131260 229 288 80 -6 +0 -2 -3 +6 -0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 28632550 5871212375 26159924 10223 230308384692 154270 219 308 98 -20 +11 +1 -24 +62 3.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 13327517 591365 235 230306382688 152270 219 308 98 -5 +3 +0 -6 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 41233677 86916432119 36586042 17140 236312395708 159275 219 313 98 -21 +13 +2 -29 +71 3.7
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 13726519 581367 276 236314397710 160275 219 313 98 -4 +3 +0 -6 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 36 PAwOBA .322 → .278 (−44)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.000×1.200——30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0335.94%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.000×0.930—×1.03332.02%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.000×0.830—×1.0337.14%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .322 → .278; ISO .061 → .050; BABIP .417 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 110 PAwOBA .412 → .352 (−59)K% 10.0% → 12.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.00%÷0.989×1.200——12.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.45%÷1.005×0.690—×1.04811.12%
HBP% /PA1.82%—×0.940—×1.0481.79%
Singles /BIP17.50%÷0.949×0.930×1.032×1.04818.54%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷1.033×0.830×1.032×1.0485.43%
Triples /BIP1.25%÷0.939×0.970×1.032×1.0481.40%
Home runs /BIP7.50%÷1.125×0.700—×1.0484.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .412 → .352; ISO .275 → .207; BABIP .270 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 371 PAwOBA .367 → .325 (−42)K% 17.5% → 21.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.52%÷0.975×1.220——21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.13%÷0.959×0.680—×1.0278.83%
HBP% /PA1.62%—×0.840—×1.0271.40%
Singles /BIP23.89%÷1.015×0.920×0.977×1.02721.73%
Doubles /BIP4.45%÷1.059×0.910×0.977×1.0273.84%
Triples /BIP1.21%÷0.985×0.880×0.977×1.0271.09%
Home runs /BIP5.67%÷0.854×0.800—×1.0275.45%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .367 → .325; ISO .189 → .181; BABIP .304 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 152 PAwOBA .397 → .333 (−64)K% 19.7% → 23.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.74%÷0.998×1.200——23.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.18%÷0.949×0.690—×1.0508.54%
HBP% /PA2.63%—×0.940—×1.0502.60%
Singles /BIP22.77%÷0.994×0.930×0.985×1.05022.04%
Doubles /BIP7.92%÷0.962×0.830×0.985×1.0507.07%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷1.000×0.970×0.985×1.0500.99%
Home runs /BIP6.93%÷1.079×0.700—×1.0504.72%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .397 → .333; ISO .237 → .175; BABIP .340 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 89 PAwOBA .453 → .359 (−94)K% 13.5% → 17.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.48%÷0.966×1.270——17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.37%÷1.060×0.710—×1.0122.29%
HBP% /PA1.12%—×0.790—×1.0120.90%
Singles /BIP30.56%÷0.988×0.920×0.982×1.01228.27%
Doubles /BIP5.56%÷1.140×0.810×0.982×1.0123.92%
Triples /BIP4.17%÷1.150×0.850×0.982×1.0123.06%
Home runs /BIP5.56%÷1.197×0.800—×1.0123.76%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .453 → .359; ISO .262 → .179; BABIP .426 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 70 PAwOBA .363 → .331 (−32)K% 17.1% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.14%÷1.008×1.220——20.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.29%÷1.059×0.680—×1.0422.87%
HBP% /PA1.43%—×0.840—×1.0421.25%
Singles /BIP20.75%÷0.975×0.920×1.046×1.04221.34%
Doubles /BIP7.55%÷1.023×0.910×1.046×1.0427.32%
Triples /BIP1.89%÷0.966×0.880×1.046×1.0421.87%
Home runs /BIP5.66%÷1.082×0.800—×1.0424.36%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .363 → .331; ISO .231 → .195; BABIP .314 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).