Matt Shaw — OGILVIE

Matt Shaw3B Chicago Cubs

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 0.942 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION163 act + 367 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 127113vR 79

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .319 / .409

PA367

HR11

SB16

K%20

BB%9

BABIP280

ISO165

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 51 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT51

Whiff%

906.9%

xwOBA

440.302

POWER55

Barrel%

366.4

Avg EV

1085.4

Bat Spd

1968.0

EYE48

Chase%

8325.2%

SPEED57

Sprint

9029.0

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 502 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

144

358

—

wRC+

142

◀◀L

wOBA

371

287

◀◀L

ISO

235

144

◀◀L

BABIP

305

259

◀◀L

19.4%

21.8%

◀L

BB%

8.3%

8.4%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$22M	+$21M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$19M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+2.9	$18M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$16M	+$10M
2031	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$29M		$92M	+$73M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A+	2 teams	—	159	152	44	6	3	5	4	33	2	13	2	289	316	467	784	178	339	21	3	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	2 teams	—	159	149	52	8	4	7	7	24	2	13	2	349	386	597	983	248	378	15	4	425	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	2 teams	—	523	459	115	15	4	23	47	124	10	31	11	251	333	451	784	200	288	24	9	336	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	2 teams	—	523	443	126	19	4	21	62	95	10	31	11	284	384	488	871	203	314	18	12	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	2 teams	—	547	489	113	25	4	17	50	108	4	22	5	231	308	403	710	172	261	20	9	310	95	-3	+2	+1	+2	+15	1.8
2025	23	MLB	2 teams	—	547	484	115	26	4	19	55	105	4	22	5	238	320	426	746	188	264	19	10	330	111	+7	+2	+1	+2	+15	2.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	MLB	CHC	—	163	145	36	7	2	4	13	29	3	5	1	248	323	407	730	159	283	18	8	319	102	+0	+1	+1	-2	+5	0.5
YTD	24	MLB	CHC	—	163	144	36	7	2	4	14	29	3	5	1	250	329	410	739	160	286	18	9	327	109	+2	+1	+1	-2	+5	0.6
ROS	24	MLB	CHC	100%	367	328	80	15	3	11	32	73	4	16	3	244	319	409	727	165	280	20	9	325	107	+3	+2	-1	+1	+10	1.6
ROS	24	MLB	CHC	100%	367	328	80	15	3	11	32	73	4	16	3	244	319	409	727	165	281	20	9	318	101	+0	+2	-1	+1	+10	1.4
FULL	24	MLB	CHC	—	530	473	116	22	5	15	45	102	7	21	4	245	320	408	728	163	281	19	8	318	101	+1	+3	+0	-0	+15	1.9
TOT	24	MLB	CHC	—	530	473	116	22	5	15	45	102	7	21	4	245	320	408	728	163	281	19	8	323	105	+3	+3	+0	-0	+15	2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	CHC	98%	583	520	128	24	5	19	51	115	7	26	5	246	322	421	743	175	279	20	9	329	110	+6	+3	-1	+2	+17	2.8
2028	26	MLB	CHC	98%	571	508	126	24	5	19	51	113	7	25	5	248	325	427	752	179	279	20	9	330	111	+7	+3	-1	+2	+16	2.8
2029	27	MLB	CHC	98%	561	499	123	23	5	18	50	111	7	25	5	246	324	421	745	174	279	20	9	330	111	+7	+3	-1	+2	+16	2.7
2030	28	MLB	CHC	98%	553	491	121	23	5	18	50	110	7	23	4	246	325	424	748	177	278	20	9	329	110	+6	+3	-2	+2	+16	2.6
2031	29	MLB	CHC	98%	541	480	116	22	4	17	49	109	7	21	4	242	321	410	731	169	277	20	9	327	108	+5	+3	-2	+2	+15	2.3
2032	30	MLB	CHC	98%	529	470	113	21	4	17	48	108	6	19	4	240	319	411	729	170	276	20	9	324	106	+4	+2	-3	+2	+15	2.0
2033	31	MLB	CHC	98%	516	458	109	20	4	16	47	107	6	16	3	238	317	404	721	166	273	21	9	319	102	+1	+2	-4	+2	+15	1.7
2034	32	MLB	CHC	98%	506	449	105	19	4	15	46	107	6	13	2	234	313	394	708	160	268	21	9	312	97	-2	+2	-4	+2	+14	1.2
2035	33	MLB	CHC	98%	465	415	92	16	3	13	42	101	5	9	2	222	301	369	670	147	263	22	9	304	91	-5	+1	-5	+2	+13	0.6
2027	25	MLB	CHC	98%	571	509	127	24	5	19	50	113	7	25	5	250	325	428	753	179	281	20	9	321	104	+3	+3	-1	+2	+16	2.3
2028	26	MLB	CHC	98%	560	498	124	23	5	19	50	111	7	25	5	249	326	430	756	181	280	20	9	323	105	+3	+3	-1	+2	+16	2.4
2029	27	MLB	CHC	98%	550	489	121	23	5	18	49	109	7	24	5	247	325	425	750	178	280	20	9	323	105	+3	+3	-1	+2	+16	2.3
2030	28	MLB	CHC	98%	542	481	118	22	4	18	49	108	7	23	4	245	324	420	744	175	280	20	9	321	104	+3	+3	-2	+2	+15	2.2
2031	29	MLB	CHC	98%	530	471	115	22	4	17	48	107	6	21	4	244	322	416	738	172	279	20	9	320	103	+2	+3	-2	+2	+15	1.9
2032	30	MLB	CHC	98%	518	460	112	21	4	17	47	106	6	18	4	243	322	417	739	174	277	20	9	317	100	+0	+2	-3	+2	+15	1.6
2033	31	MLB	CHC	98%	506	449	108	20	4	16	46	105	6	15	3	241	319	410	729	169	274	21	9	312	97	-2	+2	-4	+2	+14	1.3
2034	32	MLB	CHC	98%	496	442	103	19	4	15	45	105	6	13	2	233	312	396	708	163	269	21	9	305	92	-5	+2	-4	+2	+14	0.9
2035	33	MLB	CHC	98%	456	407	91	16	3	13	41	99	5	9	2	224	302	373	676	150	264	22	9	297	86	-7	+1	-5	+2	+13	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5533	4927	1188	226	44	176	495	1130	63	206	42	241	318	412	730	171	277	20	9	315	99	-4	+24	-22	+20	+157	17.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	140	27	5	21	58	133	7	24	5	242	318	415	733	173	277	20	9	315	99	-0	+3	-3	+2	+18	2.1
Career	—			—	6421	5718	1385	253	53	208	567	1319	78	259	55	242	319	414	733	172	278	21	9	323	106	+40	+30	-22	+23	+182	25.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	140	26	5	21	57	134	8	26	6	242	318	413	731	171	278	21	9	323	106	+4	+3	-2	+2	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	70	65	19	4	1	3	3	12	1	6	1	292	333	523	856	231	314	17	4	368	140	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	89	84	33	4	3	4	4	12	1	7	1	393	427	655	1.082	262	426	13	4	469	217	+12	+1	—	—	+3	1.6
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	152	131	39	8	1	7	17	30	4	6	3	298	395	534	929	237	340	20	11	408	171	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.7
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	371	312	87	11	3	14	45	65	6	25	8	279	379	468	847	189	304	18	12	370	141	+17	+2	—	—	+11	3.0
2025	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	226	298	394	692	168	262	22	9	306	93	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	110	91	26	5	1	6	17	11	2	5	0	286	409	560	970	275	270	10	15	423	182	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	226	298	394	692	168	262	22	9	306	93	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	11	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	24.9
	/162	664	20	20	263	315	427	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24
#2B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#3Jason Kipnislast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,984 PA	10	4,984	126	136	260	333	416	+18	-11	22.6	21.9
	/162	664	17	18	260	333	416	+2.4	-1.4	3.0	pk7: 21
#4Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,842	184	220	241	315	411	+21	+14	23.8	20.9
	/162	664	21	25	241	315	411	+2.4	+1.6	2.7	pk7: 18
#5Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#6Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Shaw (OGILVIE)	24	47→51	49→55	57	48	245/320/408	163	281	15	21	19%	8%	105	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	54→60	55→50	45	256/314/439	183	307	21	23	24%	7%	112	+2.6	258/314/460	202	301	28	14	24%	7%	118	+3.0	245/301/434	189	280	27	12	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→49	55→60	54→55	48	226/294/418	192	263	22	20	24%	8%	99	+1.7	235/302/435	200	276	23	18	23%	8%	107	+2.2	239/321/428	189	289	20	17	24%	10%	109	+2.5
●Desmond Jennings 2012 · MLB	25	51→59	47→50	62→60	51	250/323/394	144	294	14	32	20%	8%	104	+2.0	243/317/393	150	290	15	25	20%	9%	102	+1.8	240/316/387	148	285	14	23	20%	9%	97	+1.5
✕Daulton Varsho 2021 · MLB	25	46→49	52→60	55→50	47	239/304/408	170	277	19	18	22%	7%	100	+1.7	233/299/427	194	270	24	14	23%	8%	103	+1.9	227/294/419	192	260	25	15	23%	8%	96	+1.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→49	54→55	60→55	48	220/301/407	187	268	20	29	26%	8%	99	+1.7	219/284/372	153	274	16	24	25%	8%	82	+0.5	216/279/363	147	269	15	22	25%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	49→52	51→45	56→50	48	247/333/412	165	303	18	23	24%	8%	114	+2.7	229/320/355	126	286	12	13	23%	9%	94	+1.3	238/326/362	125	285	12	10	20%	9%	95	+1.1
✕Brett Lawrie 2013 · MLB	23	53→55	49→55	53→55	47	265/317/423	159	307	14	17	19%	6%	109	+2.4	256/309/407	151	292	17	10	18%	6%	102	+1.8	254/305/406	152	293	18	6	20%	6%	97	+1.1
★Rickie Weeks Jr. 2007 · MLB	24	53→58	49→55	58→55	48	259/346/417	158	321	16	22	23%	8%	121	+3.2	247/353/423	176	301	17	22	22%	12%	124	+3.4	259/353/453	194	315	22	11	24%	10%	129	+4.0
●Gregory Polanco 2017 · MLB	25	52→55	50→60	53→55	51	258/321/424	166	299	16	20	20%	9%	111	+2.5	252/321/439	187	291	20	14	20%	9%	115	+2.8	248/321/437	190	287	21	13	21%	9%	108	+1.5
✕Andrés Giménez 2023 · MLB	24	55→60	51→50	56→55	43	272/338/433	162	329	18	21	22%	6%	121	+3.2	251/311/378	127	291	13	24	18%	5%	95	+1.4	238/299/349	111	274	11	26	17%	5%	80	+0.3
●Rocco Baldelli 2006 · MLB	24	55→61	48→55	53→55	46	274/321/420	146	311	15	18	17%	5%	109	+2.4	270/320/459	189	313	21	13	21%	5%	121	+3.2	271/323/470	198	317	23	12	22%	5%	121	+1.3
●Corey Patterson 2004 · MLB	24	53→54	51→55	57→60	40	265/300/432	166	317	18	20	22%	4%	105	+2.1	255/299/422	167	308	19	27	23%	5%	102	+1.8	250/295/411	161	298	19	33	23%	5%	91	+1.1
●Victor Robles 2021 · MLB	24	49→54	47→50	53→60	44	242/314/383	141	299	14	22	23%	6%	98	+1.6	225/298/334	109	291	9	19	25%	7%	79	+0.3	283/353/387	105	352	6	51	20%	6%	113	+0.9
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	55	46	237/301/388	152	305	17	24	28%	8%	94	+1.3	230/296/357	127	295	12	15	25%	8%	83	+0.6	231/293/342	111	293	10	15	23%	7%	76	+0.0
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	47→57	53→55	58→60	45	239/303/408	169	318	21	25	31%	8%	100	+1.7	251/307/423	172	352	19	28	32%	7%	105	+2.1	252/308/426	174	353	19	33	32%	7%	102	+1.5
✕Manuel Margot 2020 · MLB	25	50→53	48→50	54→60	49	248/306/401	154	286	15	19	19%	8%	98	+1.6	251/311/380	129	291	12	20	17%	8%	95	+1.4	256/312/371	114	298	10	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→53	51→55	51→50	47	245/302/410	166	280	19	13	21%	7%	100	+1.7	221/308/380	159	262	17	11	22%	10%	95	+1.4	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
✕Ryan Kalish 2012 · MLB	24	47→51	48→50	56→55	47	236/293/378	142	284	15	24	22%	7%	87	+0.8	220/270/320	100	293	9	19	27%	6%	62	-0.9	212/256/305	93	285	8	20	28%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Peter Bourjos 2012 · MLB	25	51→56	48→50	61→60	43	251/300/404	153	304	13	25	22%	5%	96	+1.5	239/298/368	129	306	11	16	25%	6%	87	+0.8	240/282/379	139	307	10	8	24%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Lastings Milledge 2009 · MLB	24	52→59	48→50	51→55	47	260/326/403	144	299	15	20	19%	7%	108	+2.3	264/319/376	112	307	10	18	17%	6%	97	+1.5	264/317/362	98	306	8	19	16%	6%	89	+0.7