Matt Shaw — OGILVIE

Matt ShawRF Chicago Cubs

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 0.942 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION213 act + 29 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 111106vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .310 / .385

PA29

HR1

K%21

BB%10

BABIP283

ISO154

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$43M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 52 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT52

Whiff%

906.5%

xAVG

290.234

POWER55

Barrel%

356.3

Avg EV

1085.5

Bat Spd

1968.0

EYE49

Chase%

9024.0%

SPEED58

Sprint

9029.1

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%19%▲17% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%11%▲▲20% over 30 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.188▲.318 over 22 AB (60d) · proj .170xISO .128 vs .138 prior — approach does NOT back the move

BABIP.277·.188 over 16 BIP (60d) · proj .278xBABIP .264 vs .283 prior

SLASH.245/.334/.433▲proj .243/.316/.413

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 502 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

144

358

—

wRC+

137

◀◀L

wOBA

371

287

◀◀L

ISO

235

144

◀◀L

BABIP

305

259

◀◀L

19.4%

21.8%

◀L

BB%

8.3%

8.4%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.7	$11M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+1.6	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+1.4	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$23M		$54M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	70	65	19	4	1	3	3	12	1	6	1	292	333	523	856	231	314	17	4	368	135	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	89	84	33	4	3	4	4	12	1	7	1	393	427	655	1.082	262	426	13	4	469	204	+11	+1	—	—	+2	1.4
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	152	131	39	8	1	7	17	30	4	6	3	298	395	534	929	237	340	20	11	408	162	+11	+0	—	—	+3	1.5
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	371	312	87	11	3	14	45	65	6	25	8	279	379	468	847	189	304	18	12	370	137	+16	+2	—	—	+8	2.7
2025	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	226	298	394	692	168	262	22	9	306	94	-3	+1	+1	+2	+9	1.0
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	110	91	26	5	1	6	17	11	2	5	0	286	409	560	970	275	270	10	15	423	172	+9	+1	—	—	+2	1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	226	298	394	692	168	262	22	9	306	94	-3	+1	+1	+2	+9	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	70	66	18	4	1	2	2	15	1	6	1	273	304	455	759	182	302	21	3	318	101	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	89	86	27	3	2	3	2	17	1	7	1	314	337	500	837	186	359	19	2	350	123	+2	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	152	136	33	7	1	4	12	36	4	6	3	243	322	397	719	154	300	24	8	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2024	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	371	326	80	9	3	13	32	81	6	25	8	245	324	411	735	166	269	22	9	318	101	+1	+2	—	—	+8	1.1
2025	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	437	393	90	21	3	14	38	94	2	17	5	229	300	405	705	176	262	22	9	303	91	-5	+1	+1	+2	+9	0.9
2025	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	110	96	24	4	1	4	12	13	2	5	0	250	345	438	783	188	253	12	11	338	115	+2	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	159	152	44	6	3	5	4	31	2	13	2	289	316	467	784	178	333	19	3	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	159	149	52	8	4	7	7	24	2	13	2	349	386	597	983	248	378	15	4	425	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	523	461	113	16	4	18	45	117	10	31	11	245	326	414	740	169	285	22	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	523	443	126	19	4	21	62	95	10	31	11	284	384	488	871	203	314	18	12	381	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	547	489	113	25	4	17	50	107	4	22	5	231	308	403	710	172	260	20	9	310	96	-3	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2025	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	547	484	115	26	4	19	55	105	4	22	5	238	320	426	746	188	264	19	10	330	96	-3	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	159	152	44	6	3	5	4	31	2	13	2	289	316	467	784	178	334	19	3	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	523	463	113	16	4	18	45	117	10	31	11	244	326	413	738	168	278	22	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	547	488	113	25	4	17	50	107	4	22	5	232	308	404	711	172	260	20	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	159	152	44	6	3	5	4	31	2	13	2	289	316	467	784	178	334	19	3	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	523	463	113	16	4	18	45	117	10	31	11	244	326	413	738	168	278	22	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	547	488	113	25	4	17	50	107	4	22	5	232	308	404	711	172	260	20	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	213	186	45	10	3	5	20	43	3	6	1	242	325	409	734	167	288	20	9	315	99	-0	+1	+1	-2	+5	0.4
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	CHC	—	177	152	36	8	3	5	18	32	3	4	1	237	329	428	757	191	267	18	10	330	99	-0	+0	+1	-2	+4	0.3
YTD	24	AAA RAW	CHC	—	36	33	10	2	0	0	3	9	0	2	0	303	361	364	725	61	417	25	8	331	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	24	MLB RAW	CHC	—	177	152	36	8	3	5	18	32	3	4	1	237	329	428	757	191	267	18	10	330	109	+2	+0	+1	-2	+4	0.5
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	29	26	6	1	0	1	3	6	0	1	0	231	310	385	695	154	280	21	10	324	106	+0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	29	26	6	1	0	1	3	6	0	1	0	231	310	385	695	154	283	21	10	317	106	+0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.1
FULL	24	MLB A+C	CHC	—	206	178	42	9	3	6	21	38	3	5	1	236	327	421	748	185	267	18	10	328	100	+0	+1	+1	-2	+4	0.4
TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	242	212	51	11	3	6	23	49	3	7	1	241	324	406	729	165	285	20	10	316	100	+0	+1	+1	-3	+5	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	583	517	126	25	5	19	54	118	7	25	5	244	324	422	745	178	278	20	9	328	108	+6	+3	+3	-6	+13	1.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	571	507	123	24	5	18	53	115	6	24	4	243	322	416	738	174	278	20	9	329	109	+6	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	561	497	121	24	5	18	53	113	6	24	4	243	324	421	744	177	277	20	9	329	109	+6	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	553	490	119	23	5	18	52	113	6	22	4	243	323	420	743	178	277	20	9	328	108	+5	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	541	478	115	23	4	17	52	111	6	20	4	241	323	412	735	172	276	21	10	326	107	+4	+2	+1	-6	+12	1.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	529	468	111	22	4	16	50	110	6	18	3	237	319	404	723	167	274	21	9	323	105	+3	+2	+0	-6	+11	1.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	516	456	107	21	4	16	49	109	6	15	3	235	317	404	721	169	271	21	9	318	101	+1	+2	-1	-6	+11	0.8
2034	32	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	506	448	103	20	4	15	48	109	5	12	2	230	311	393	704	163	267	22	9	311	97	-2	+2	-1	-5	+11	0.4
2035	33	MLB MLE	CHC	98%	465	413	91	17	3	13	44	102	5	9	2	220	303	370	673	150	261	22	9	303	91	-5	+1	-2	-5	+10	-0.1
2036	34	MLB MLE	CHC	94%	418	372	79	14	3	11	39	95	4	6	1	212	294	355	649	142	253	23	9	292	84	-8	+1	-3	-4	+9	-0.6
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	571	508	125	25	6	18	52	115	6	24	4	246	323	425	749	179	280	20	9	320	108	+5	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	560	497	120	24	5	17	52	113	6	24	4	241	321	412	733	171	280	20	9	321	109	+6	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	550	487	119	24	5	17	52	111	6	23	4	244	325	419	744	175	280	20	9	321	109	+6	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	542	480	116	23	5	17	51	110	6	22	4	242	322	417	739	175	279	20	9	320	108	+5	+3	+2	-6	+12	1.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	530	469	113	22	5	16	50	109	6	20	4	241	322	412	733	171	278	21	9	318	107	+4	+2	+1	-6	+11	1.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	518	458	110	22	5	15	49	108	6	17	3	240	322	408	730	168	277	21	9	315	105	+3	+2	+0	-6	+11	1.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	506	447	105	21	4	15	48	107	6	15	3	235	317	400	718	166	273	21	9	310	101	+1	+2	-1	-5	+11	0.8
2034	32	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	496	441	100	19	4	14	47	107	5	12	2	227	308	383	692	156	269	22	9	304	97	-2	+2	-1	-5	+11	0.4
2035	33	MLB CTX	CHC	98%	456	405	90	17	4	12	43	100	5	9	2	222	305	373	677	151	263	22	9	295	91	-5	+1	-2	-5	+10	-0.1
2036	34	MLB CTX	CHC	94%	391	347	74	13	3	10	37	89	4	5	1	213	296	354	651	141	255	23	9	285	84	-7	+1	-3	-4	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5586	4958	1167	232	49	165	522	1169	58	189	36	235	315	402	717	166	274	21	9	312	102	+13	+23	+4	-53	+121	11.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	136	27	6	19	61	136	7	22	4	236	317	402	719	166	275	21	9	312	102	+1	+3	+0	-6	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6501	5774	1371	261	53	202	596	1356	73	242	50	237	317	406	723	169	275	21	9	319	102	+13	+24	+4	-55	+124	11.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	136	26	5	20	60	136	7	24	5	236	315	402	717	166	273	21	9	319	102	+1	+3	+0	-6	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Carlos Gómezlast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,227 PA	7.9	5,227	145	268	252	313	411	+11	+80	28.2	26.7
/162	664	18	34	+1.4	+10.2	3.6	pk7: 25
#2B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#3Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#4Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	9.5	6,290	193	220	236	313	405	+6	+15	22.7	20.1
/162	664	20	23	+0.6	+1.6	2.4	pk7: 17
#5Corey Pattersonlast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,422 PA	6.7	4,422	116	215	254	292	403	-2	+56	15.8	16.6
/162	664	17	32	-0.3	+8.4	2.4	pk7: 17
#6Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Shaw (OGILVIE)	24	50→52	53→55	58	49	240/317/408	168	280	16	24	20%	9%	106	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→48	54→60	54→55	48	225/294/412	186	262	21	20	23%	8%	98	+1.2	235/302/435	200	277	23	18	23%	8%	106	+1.8	239/321/429	190	289	21	17	24%	10%	108	+2.1
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	51→49	51→60	55→50	46	254/314/422	168	308	18	23	23%	7%	107	+1.8	257/315/455	198	301	27	14	24%	8%	115	+2.4	244/301/432	187	279	27	12	23%	7%	102	+0.9
●Trent Grisham 2021 · MLB	24	46→49	54→60	54→55	53	237/322/418	182	284	21	14	24%	11%	109	+2.0	221/313/388	167	277	18	13	25%	11%	99	+1.3	212/319/405	193	232	27	6	22%	13%	104	+1.1
✕Daulton Varsho 2021 · MLB	25	46→49	50→60	55→50	47	235/301/395	160	276	18	18	22%	7%	96	+1.0	234/300/428	194	270	24	14	23%	8%	103	+1.6	228/296/424	195	260	25	15	23%	8%	98	+1.1
✕Brett Lawrie 2013 · MLB	23	54→56	49→55	53→55	47	266/319/427	161	307	15	17	19%	6%	109	+2.0	257/310/410	153	293	17	10	18%	6%	103	+1.5	254/305/408	154	293	18	6	20%	6%	98	+0.9
✕Andrés Giménez 2023 · MLB	24	54→60	50	56→55	43	270/337/429	160	327	17	21	22%	6%	118	+2.6	251/312/380	129	291	13	24	18%	5%	97	+1.1	240/300/352	112	276	11	26	17%	5%	83	+0.1
●Gregory Polanco 2017 · MLB	25	52→56	51→60	53→55	51	259/322/428	169	299	17	20	20%	9%	111	+2.1	254/323/446	192	291	21	14	20%	9%	116	+2.5	249/322/445	196	286	22	13	21%	9%	110	+1.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→50	52→55	60→55	48	218/298/397	180	264	19	29	25%	8%	96	+1.0	219/284/371	152	274	16	24	25%	8%	84	+0.2	224/284/362	138	278	14	23	24%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	50→52	50→45	56→50	48	247/334/407	160	304	17	23	24%	8%	112	+2.2	227/319/349	122	285	11	13	23%	9%	93	+0.8	238/326/360	122	287	12	10	20%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Lewis Brinson 2018 · MLB	24	46→53	51→55	52→50	42	235/286/398	162	291	18	16	26%	6%	91	+0.7	207/260/339	132	282	14	12	31%	5%	68	-1.0	230/272/404	174	301	22	8	31%	5%	85	+0.1
●Corey Patterson 2004 · MLB	24	53→55	51→55	57→60	40	265/300/432	166	317	18	20	22%	4%	104	+1.6	255/299/422	167	308	19	27	23%	5%	101	+1.4	250/295/411	161	298	19	33	23%	5%	92	+0.7
✕Victor Robles 2021 · MLB	24	49→52	47→50	53→60	44	243/314/385	142	301	14	22	23%	6%	99	+1.3	225/299/335	110	291	9	19	24%	7%	82	-0.0	282/352/386	105	351	6	51	20%	6%	110	+0.7
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2022 · MLB	24	46→50	54→60	54→60	42	235/296/415	179	309	22	22	31%	7%	99	+1.2	254/316/462	208	317	27	28	28%	8%	118	+2.6	247/321/445	199	302	28	36	27%	9%	112	+1.9
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→52	50→55	51→50	48	244/305/399	156	281	17	13	20%	7%	98	+1.2	219/308/375	156	260	16	11	22%	10%	95	+0.9	224/326/406	183	249	21	12	19%	12%	105	+1.6
●Rocco Baldelli 2006 · MLB	24	55→61	48→55	53→55	46	274/321/420	146	310	15	18	17%	5%	108	+1.9	270/320/458	188	313	21	13	21%	5%	118	+2.6	271/322/468	197	317	23	12	22%	5%	118	+1.1
✕Desmond Jennings 2012 · MLB	25	51→59	46→50	62→60	51	248/321/385	137	295	12	32	20%	8%	101	+1.4	243/317/390	147	292	14	25	21%	9%	101	+1.4	241/317/387	146	288	13	23	20%	9%	98	+1.1
★Aaron Rowand 2002 · MLB	24	53→61	49→55	52→50	54	263/348/412	149	306	17	16	20%	10%	118	+2.6	267/318/430	163	297	18	8	16%	5%	110	+2.1	280/345/448	168	331	18	4	20%	7%	120	+2.8
✕Peter Bourjos 2012 · MLB	25	51→55	47→50	61→60	43	253/302/403	150	307	13	25	22%	5%	97	+1.1	239/299/368	129	306	11	16	24%	6%	88	+0.5	237/279/373	137	305	9	8	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2021 · MLB	24	51→55	47→50	53→50	47	250/310/399	149	304	13	11	22%	7%	100	+1.3	255/313/393	138	316	12	15	22%	8%	99	+1.3	257/314/398	140	314	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
●Rickie Weeks Jr. 2008 · MLB	25	51→58	51→55	59→55	56	252/361/425	173	312	17	25	23%	12%	125	+3.2	250/352/432	182	303	19	17	22%	11%	123	+3.0	254/348/435	181	311	21	11	24%	10%	120	+3.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps