Matt Shaw — OGILVIE

Matt Shaw3B Chicago Cubs

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs MLB BB +5%HR -4% Svc 0.942 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.3 · 2028

wRC+†vL 132114vR 83

AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .317 / .418

PA542

HR19

SB21

K%20

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

48↗51

PWR

50↗57

SPD

58→58

FLD

45↗50

EYE

52↘48

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.1peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$23M	+$22M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.2	$26M	+$26M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.3	$28M	+$27M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.3	$29M	+$22M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+3.1	$28M	+$16M
2031	Arb-3	$16M	+2.8	$26M	+$10M
Totals		$37M		$160M	+$123M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	A+	2 teams	159	152	44	6	3	5	4	31	2	13	2	.289	.316	.467	.784	.178	.333	19	3	.340	119	+3	+2	+0	+1	+5	1.0
2024	22	AA	2 teams	523	461	115	16	4	22	45	123	10	31	11	.249	.329	.445	.774	.195	.288	24	9	.329	110	+6	+2	+0	+2	+15	2.5
2025	23	MLB	2 teams	547	489	115	25	4	18	50	107	4	22	5	.235	.311	.413	.724	.178	.264	20	9	.311	96	-2	+2	+1	+2	+15	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	65	59	18	5	0	2	4	12	0	2	1	.305	.349	.492	.841	.186	.348	18	6	.355	130	+2	+0	+1	-1	+2	0.4
ROS	24	MLB	CHC	477	430	109	22	3	16	40	96	4	19	4	.253	.323	.430	.753	.177	.288	20	8	.331	112	+6	+2	+0	+2	+14	2.5
TOT	24	MLB	CHC	542	489	127	27	3	18	44	108	4	21	5	.260	.326	.438	.764	.178	.298	20	8	.334	114	+9	+2	+1	+1	+15	2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	25	MLB	CHC	547	491	126	25	3	20	47	95	4	22	5	.257	.327	.442	.769	.185	.278	17	9	.337	116	+10	+2	+1	+2	+15	3.1
2028	26	MLB	CHC	547	490	126	25	3	20	48	95	4	22	5	.257	.328	.443	.771	.186	.278	17	9	.339	118	+11	+2	+1	+2	+15	3.2
2029	27	MLB	CHC	542	485	125	25	3	20	48	95	4	21	5	.258	.330	.445	.775	.188	.278	18	9	.339	118	+11	+2	+0	+2	+15	3.1
2030	28	MLB	CHC	534	477	121	24	3	19	48	94	4	20	4	.254	.327	.436	.763	.182	.278	18	9	.338	117	+10	+2	-0	+2	+15	3.0
2031	29	MLB	CHC	522	466	118	23	3	19	47	94	4	19	4	.253	.327	.438	.765	.185	.277	18	9	.336	115	+9	+2	-1	+2	+15	2.7
2032	30	MLB	CHC	510	455	115	23	3	18	46	93	4	17	3	.253	.327	.435	.762	.182	.276	18	9	.333	113	+7	+2	-2	+2	+14	2.5
2033	31	MLB	CHC	495	443	110	22	3	17	45	93	4	14	2	.248	.323	.427	.750	.178	.275	19	9	.329	110	+6	+2	-2	+2	+14	2.1
2034	32	MLB	CHC	476	427	103	20	2	16	43	91	3	12	1	.241	.315	.410	.725	.169	.273	19	9	.324	106	+3	+2	-3	+2	+13	1.8
2035	33	MLB	CHC	446	400	95	18	2	14	40	89	3	9	1	.237	.312	.398	.709	.160	.271	20	9	.317	101	+0	+1	-4	+2	+13	1.3
2036	34	MLB	CHC	400	359	84	16	2	12	35	83	3	7	0	.234	.307	.390	.697	.156	.269	21	9	.310	95	-2	+1	-5	+1	+11	0.8
2037	35	MLB	CHC	346	311	71	13	2	10	30	75	2	6	0	.228	.300	.379	.680	.151	.266	22	9	.301	89	-4	+1	-5	+1	+10	0.3
2038	36	MLB	CHC	287	258	55	10	1	7	25	65	2	4	0	.213	.288	.341	.629	.128	.262	23	9	.291	81	-6	+1	-6	+1	+8	-0.2
2039	37	MLB	CHC	224	202	43	8	1	5	19	53	1	3	0	.213	.284	.337	.620	.124	.258	24	8	.281	73	-7	+1	-7	+1	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7582	6796	1675	321	45	258	660	1472	62	261	52	.246	.319	.421	.740	.174	.277	19	9	.325	107	+61	+31	-32	+27	+215	30.8
/ 162G	—			650	583	144	28	4	22	57	126	5	22	4	.247	.320	.422	.742	.175	.278	19	9	.325	107	+5	+3	-3	+2	+18	2.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	70	65	19	4	1	3	3	12	1	6	1	.292	.333	.523	.856	.231	.314	17	4	.368	140	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2023	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	89	84	33	4	3	4	4	12	1	7	1	.393	.427	.655	1.082	.262	.426	13	4	.469	217	+12	+1	—	—	+3	1.6
2024	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	152	131	39	8	1	7	17	30	4	6	3	.298	.395	.534	.929	.237	.340	20	11	.408	171	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.7
2024	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	371	312	87	11	3	14	45	65	6	25	8	.279	.379	.468	.847	.189	.304	18	12	.370	141	+17	+2	—	—	+11	3.0
2025	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	.226	.298	.394	.692	.168	.262	22	9	.306	93	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3
2025	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	110	91	26	5	1	6	17	11	2	5	0	.286	.409	.560	.970	.275	.270	10	15	.423	182	+10	+1	—	—	+3	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			437	393	89	21	3	13	38	94	2	17	5	.226	.298	.394	.692	.168	.262	22	9	.306	93	-4	+1	+1	+2	+12	1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Shaw (OGILVIE)	24	48→51	50→57	58	48	.251/.319/.426	.175	.277	18	22	18%	8%	112	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	52→60	55→50	45	.253/.312/.425	.172	.306	19	22	23%	7%	108	+2.3	.261/.317/.468	.207	.304	29	15	24%	7%	121	+3.2	.244/.300/.437	.193	.276	28	12	23%	7%	102	+1.1
●Rickie Weeks Jr. 2007 · MLB	24	52→58	50→55	58→55	49	.257/.345/.418	.161	.319	17	22	24%	8%	121	+3.2	.247/.354/.422	.175	.302	17	22	22%	12%	124	+3.4	.253/.353/.435	.182	.308	20	13	23%	10%	124	+2.8
●Daulton Varsho 2021 · MLB	25	46→49	52→60	55→50	46	.238/.302/.404	.166	.280	19	18	23%	7%	98	+1.6	.238/.303/.434	.196	.276	24	15	23%	8%	107	+2.2	.235/.301/.435	.201	.269	26	15	23%	8%	102	+1.6
●Chris Young 2009 · MLB	25	45→49	56→60	53→55	49	.238/.302/.438	.200	.272	23	17	22%	8%	107	+2.2	.237/.319/.423	.186	.287	20	17	24%	10%	110	+2.4	.232/.325/.409	.176	.280	19	20	23%	12%	105	+2.2
✕Brett Lawrie 2014 · MLB	24	52→56	50→55	51→55	49	.263/.320/.421	.159	.293	17	15	17%	7%	110	+2.4	.252/.304/.405	.153	.294	18	8	21%	6%	99	+1.7	.250/.300/.408	.158	.303	19	6	24%	6%	96	+1.0
●Corey Hart 2008 · MLB	26	52→56	55→60	57→55	47	.267/.324/.467	.200	.308	21	24	21%	7%	124	+3.4	.269/.321/.462	.193	.306	20	17	19%	6%	121	+3.2	.266/.331/.473	.207	.312	25	6	23%	8%	121	+3.2
★Bobby Witt Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	46→56	55→65	55→60	42	.241/.290/.432	.191	.284	23	25	24%	6%	101	+1.8	.276/.327/.485	.209	.308	24	31	19%	6%	130	+3.8	.291/.347/.510	.219	.319	25	34	17%	7%	137	+5.0
●Elijah Dukes 2007 · AAA	23	51	51→55	51→50	48	.258/.317/.421	.163	.298	18	15	20%	7%	109	+2.4	.243/.335/.417	.174	.287	19	14	21%	11%	115	+2.8	.236/.344/.412	.176	.277	18	13	21%	13%	114	+1.7
●Ozzie Albies 2020 · MLB	23	54→59	53→60	56→55	48	.274/.324/.459	.185	.306	19	15	18%	6%	121	+3.2	.263/.314/.461	.198	.292	23	14	18%	7%	118	+3.0	.254/.310/.461	.206	.273	25	13	18%	7%	112	+2.4
★Aaron Rowand 2002 · MLB	24	52→61	49→55	51→50	53	.262/.346/.412	.150	.305	17	15	20%	10%	118	+3.0	.266/.318/.425	.159	.297	18	8	17%	6%	111	+2.5	.280/.345/.448	.168	.331	18	4	20%	7%	122	+3.3
●Trent Grisham 2021 · MLB	24	45→48	53→60	54→55	52	.231/.316/.407	.176	.283	20	14	25%	10%	105	+2.1	.220/.311/.385	.165	.275	18	13	25%	11%	98	+1.6	.210/.323/.396	.186	.251	24	8	26%	13%	101	+1.3
●Rocco Baldelli 2006 · MLB	24	56→61	47→55	54→55	45	.276/.321/.419	.143	.315	14	19	17%	5%	109	+2.4	.272/.321/.460	.188	.314	21	13	20%	5%	121	+3.2	.271/.323/.470	.199	.317	23	12	22%	5%	121	+1.3
●Gregory Polanco 2017 · MLB	25	52→55	50→60	52→55	51	.258/.320/.421	.163	.298	17	21	20%	8%	110	+2.4	.251/.319/.437	.186	.287	21	14	20%	9%	114	+2.7	.245/.318/.436	.192	.281	22	13	21%	9%	107	+1.5
●Shane Victorino 2006 · MLB	25	51→60	51→55	56→60	47	.256/.305/.428	.172	.284	17	17	17%	6%	105	+2.1	.275/.331/.425	.150	.302	13	21	13%	6%	115	+2.7	.286/.350/.434	.149	.308	12	32	11%	8%	122	+3.3
✕Andrés Giménez 2023 · MLB	24	54→60	52→50	56→55	43	.269/.335/.437	.168	.325	19	22	23%	6%	121	+3.2	.254/.315/.386	.132	.295	14	24	19%	5%	99	+1.7	.241/.301/.348	.107	.278	11	26	17%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→51	54→55	59→55	48	.223/.304/.414	.191	.270	21	29	26%	9%	102	+1.9	.225/.290/.385	.160	.283	16	24	26%	8%	89	+0.9	.225/.287/.379	.154	.282	15	22	25%	7%	82	+0.5
●Andrew Benintendi 2018 · MLB	24	52→62	50→55	51→50	53	.260/.328/.423	.163	.287	17	15	16%	9%	114	+2.7	.260/.338/.416	.156	.305	15	15	19%	10%	116	+2.8	.265/.336/.422	.158	.310	15	13	19%	9%	114	+2.7
✕Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→52	51→55	51→50	48	.244/.304/.405	.161	.281	19	12	21%	7%	99	+1.7	.220/.307/.378	.158	.261	16	11	22%	10%	94	+1.3	.211/.309/.373	.162	.247	16	10	21%	11%	91	+1.0
●Ian Kinsler 2008 · MLB	26	50→60	51→60	53→55	54	.253/.326/.417	.164	.273	19	18	16%	9%	111	+2.5	.276/.348/.463	.187	.291	21	24	13%	9%	132	+4.0	.278/.354/.462	.184	.290	20	26	12%	9%	132	+3.7
●Bo Bichette 2021 · MLB	23	53→63	51→60	52→55	44	.265/.310/.440	.175	.319	17	21	23%	6%	111	+2.5	.295/.338/.475	.180	.349	22	16	21%	6%	131	+3.9	.305/.346/.482	.177	.358	22	13	20%	5%	135	+4.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)