Manuel Margot — OGILVIE

Manuel MargotRF Toledo Mud Hens

Age 31 R/R 5'10" / 229 lbs AAA HR +5%H +3% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.5 · 2026

wRC+†vL 9986vR 45

AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .305 / .353

PA291

HR4

SB5

K%18

BB%6

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

40→40

SPD

50→50

EYE

43↗45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
Totals		$1M		$2M	+$1M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox	310	275	58	7	5	3	22	36	8	33	9	.211	.289	.305	.594	.095	.228	12	7	.265	61	-14	+3	+0	+1	+9	-0.1
2014	19	A	2 teams	469	435	104	18	5	10	24	75	3	42	15	.239	.284	.372	.656	.133	.267	16	5	.281	74	-14	+2	+0	+2	+13	0.3
2015	20	AA	3 teams	571	533	127	26	5	7	24	82	2	41	15	.238	.274	.345	.619	.107	.265	14	4	.269	64	-23	+2	+0	+2	+16	-0.3
2016	21	AAA	3 teams	760	710	178	26	13	5	32	117	5	47	12	.251	.288	.345	.633	.094	.291	15	4	.274	68	-28	+5	+1	+3	+22	0.2
2017	22	MLB	3 teams	584	536	135	19	7	15	40	118	2	21	8	.252	.306	.397	.704	.146	.294	20	7	.303	90	-6	+1	+9	+2	+17	2.3
2018	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	519	477	118	26	8	8	32	88	2	11	10	.247	.297	.386	.683	.138	.284	17	6	.289	79	-12	-2	+7	+2	+15	1.0
2019	24	MLB	2 teams	479	431	103	22	3	13	41	96	3	22	4	.239	.309	.394	.704	.155	.280	20	9	.310	96	-2	+3	+9	+2	+14	2.5
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	159	145	41	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	.283	.342	.366	.707	.083	.333	16	8	.320	103	+1	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.7
2021	26	MLB	2 teams	479	435	108	18	2	10	38	75	1	14	9	.248	.310	.368	.678	.120	.277	16	8	.294	83	-9	-1	+10	-5	+14	0.8
2022	27	MLB	2 teams	386	356	99	19	2	4	27	70	2	7	3	.278	.332	.376	.709	.098	.336	18	7	.312	97	-1	+0	-1	-4	+11	0.5
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	336	311	81	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	.260	.309	.373	.682	.113	.302	16	5	.301	88	-4	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.7
2024	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	343	315	72	16	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	.229	.283	.324	.607	.095	.262	16	6	.266	62	-15	+1	-4	-4	+10	-1.2
2025	30	AAA	2 teams	164	151	31	2	1	1	8	37	4	0	1	.205	.264	.252	.515	.046	.263	23	5	.235	38	-12	-0	-0	-2	+5	-1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	DET	291	267	66	13	1	4	18	51	4	5	1	.247	.304	.348	.653	.101	.292	18	6	.298	86	-5	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	32	MLB 20%	DET	272	250	62	12	1	4	17	49	3	3	1	.248	.304	.352	.656	.104	.290	18	6	.293	82	-5	+0	-3	+1	+8	0.0
2028	33	MLB 33%	DET	242	222	53	10	1	3	15	45	3	2	0	.239	.296	.333	.629	.095	.289	19	6	.288	78	-6	+0	-4	+1	+7	-0.2
2029	34	MLB 43%	DET	200	184	43	8	1	2	12	39	2	1	0	.234	.288	.321	.609	.087	.288	20	6	.281	74	-6	+0	-5	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6564	6033	1479	272	57	98	402	1112	51	275	95	.245	.298	.358	.656	.113	.283	17	6	.287	78	-162	+17	+20	+4	+186	6.6
/ 162G	—			650	597	147	27	6	10	40	110	5	27	9	.246	.299	.362	.661	.116	.284	17	6	.287	78	-16	+2	+2	+0	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox	310	260	74	10	7	4	36	25	8	33	9	.285	.387	.423	.810	.138	.297	8	12	.359	133	+12	+3	—	—	+9	2.4
2014	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	56	50	17	5	0	2	2	5	1	3	2	.340	.377	.560	.937	.220	.333	9	4	.389	156	+4	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2014	19	A	Greenville Drive	413	370	106	20	5	10	37	49	2	39	13	.286	.355	.449	.803	.162	.309	12	9	.354	129	+13	+3	—	—	+12	2.8
2015	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	282	258	70	21	4	3	21	36	1	19	8	.271	.329	.419	.747	.147	.303	13	7	.330	111	+3	+1	—	—	+8	1.2
2015	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	198	181	51	6	5	3	11	15	1	20	5	.282	.326	.420	.746	.138	.289	8	6	.323	105	+1	+2	—	—	+6	0.9
2015	20	INTL	Toros del Este	91	78	17	3	1	3	8	19	0	2	2	.218	.291	.397	.688	.179	.237	21	9	.289	80	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.0
2016	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	37	37	9	4	1	0	0	7	0	2	0	.243	.243	.405	.649	.162	.300	19	0	.280	73	-1	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.4
2016	21	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	566	517	157	21	12	6	36	64	4	30	11	.304	.354	.426	.779	.122	.335	11	6	.342	120	+13	+2	—	—	+16	3.1
2016	21	INTL	Toros del Este	157	143	37	6	0	2	9	14	1	15	1	.259	.307	.343	.650	.084	.271	9	6	.287	78	-4	+3	—	—	+4	0.3
2017	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	529	487	128	18	7	13	35	106	2	17	7	.263	.315	.409	.724	.146	.309	20	7	.319	102	+1	+1	+9	+2	+15	2.9
2017	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	23	20	3	0	1	0	3	4	0	2	0	.150	.261	.250	.511	.100	.188	17	13	.240	42	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2017	22	INTL	Toros del Este	32	30	14	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	1	.467	.484	.533	1.017	.067	.500	9	3	.441	196	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2018	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	519	477	117	26	8	8	32	88	2	11	10	.245	.295	.384	.679	.138	.281	17	6	.298	86	-8	-2	+7	+2	+15	1.4
2019	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	441	398	93	19	3	12	38	88	2	20	4	.234	.304	.387	.691	.153	.272	20	9	.307	93	-3	+2	+9	+2	+12	2.2
2019	24	INTL	Toros del Este	38	35	7	1	1	0	1	9	1	2	0	.200	.243	.286	.529	.086	.269	24	3	.233	37	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	159	145	39	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	.269	.329	.352	.681	.083	.317	16	8	.308	94	-1	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.6
2021	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	464	421	107	18	3	10	37	70	1	13	8	.254	.316	.382	.698	.128	.281	15	8	.311	96	-2	-1	+10	-5	+13	1.5
2021	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	15	14	4	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	.286	.333	.286	.619	.000	.400	27	7	.288	78	-0	-0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	363	336	92	18	2	4	24	68	2	7	3	.274	.326	.375	.701	.101	.332	19	7	.315	99	-0	+0	-1	-4	+10	0.5
2022	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	23	19	5	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	.263	.391	.263	.654	.000	.294	9	17	.318	102	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	336	311	82	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	.264	.312	.376	.689	.113	.306	16	5	.307	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.9
2024	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	343	315	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	.238	.292	.337	.629	.098	.273	16	6	.282	74	-10	+1	-4	-4	+10	-0.7
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	20	19	6	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	.316	.316	.316	.632	.000	.429	30	0	.271	66	-1	+0	-0	-2	+1	-0.2
2025	30	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	144	128	27	2	1	1	12	27	4	0	1	.211	.299	.266	.564	.055	.260	19	8	.267	62	-6	-0	—	—	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			3211	2946	748	150	26	56	218	567	16	96	39	.254	.309	.379	.688	.126	.295	18	7	.306	92	-28	+4	+32	-5	+91	9.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Margot (OGILVIE)	31	55	40	50	45	.247/.305/.353	.105	.292	4	5	18%	6%	86	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rusney Castillo 2018 · MLB	31	52→59	44→45	51→50	41	.255/.290/.371	.116	.298	11	15	19%	4%	84	+0.6	.259/.292/.371	.112	.303	11	12	18%	4%	85	+0.7	.263/.295/.367	.105	.305	10	9	17%	4%	81	+0.3
✕Daniel Robertson 2017 · MLB	31	52→58	39→45	49→55	49	.248/.297/.341	.092	.278	6	13	13%	6%	78	+0.2	.249/.304/.350	.101	.288	8	15	16%	6%	84	+0.6	.251/.313/.348	.097	.295	9	17	17%	7%	84	+0.4
✕Jermaine Curtis 2018 · AAA	31	52→61	41→40	48→50	51	.250/.331/.346	.095	.300	8	8	19%	8%	95	+1.4	.224/.312/.315	.091	.292	7	9	24%	9%	80	+0.4	.177/.293/.222	.046	.239	4	9	24%	10%	52	-0.4
✕Vinny Rottino 2011 · AAA	31	51→57	41→45	52→55	50	.247/.301/.347	.100	.281	8	14	15%	7%	82	+0.5	.251/.302/.367	.116	.287	10	17	16%	6%	88	+0.9	.241/.295/.351	.110	.285	10	13	19%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Juan Lagares 2019 · MLB	30	53→63	42→45	51→50	45	.255/.305/.369	.114	.307	9	15	20%	6%	89	+1.0	.237/.292/.358	.121	.302	11	10	24%	7%	81	+0.4	.224/.271/.349	.125	.286	10	5	25%	6%	65	-0.4
✕Dixon Machado 2023 · MLB	31	51→55	39→45	48→55	49	.244/.306/.332	.088	.287	7	10	17%	7%	80	+0.4	.222/.302/.313	.091	.269	9	7	20%	9%	75	-0.0	.201/.296/.278	.077	.247	8	4	20%	11%	62	-0.4
✕Eder Salcedo 2015 · AAA	32	54→60	42→45	48→50	44	.264/.299/.366	.102	.305	10	13	17%	5%	85	+0.7	.242/.272/.336	.094	.278	9	8	16%	4%	66	-0.6	.248/.275/.326	.077	.285	7	7	15%	3%	64	-0.5
✕Adrián Sanchez 2022 · MLB	31	53→46	43→45	48→50	44	.257/.297/.369	.111	.305	11	13	19%	5%	86	+0.8	.231/.273/.337	.106	.290	8	10	22%	5%	67	-0.5	.217/.255/.315	.098	.279	4	6	22%	5%	49	-0.8
✕Leury García 2022 · MLB	31	54→58	42→45	49→60	46	.260/.313/.367	.106	.320	9	10	21%	7%	92	+1.2	.235/.284/.328	.093	.289	8	8	21%	6%	70	-0.3	.226/.258/.291	.066	.280	6	7	21%	3%	48	-0.7
●Jolbert Cabrera 2004 · MLB	31	53→51	43→50	47→50	47	.253/.308/.376	.123	.291	8	12	16%	6%	93	+1.3	.258/.309/.386	.128	.302	11	13	18%	5%	96	+1.5	.267/.303/.405	.139	.314	14	9	19%	4%	97	+1.0
✕Rubén Tejada 2021 · AAA	31	48→58	41→40	46→50	44	.230/.287/.326	.096	.282	8	8	21%	6%	71	-0.3	.222/.289/.299	.077	.289	6	7	24%	7%	66	-0.6	.207/.283/.237	.030	.276	2	2	23%	8%	43	-1.1
✕Nick Buss 2018 · MLB	31	51→58	43→50	52→55	44	.247/.290/.370	.123	.296	9	13	20%	5%	83	+0.6	.232/.281/.350	.118	.290	10	12	23%	5%	75	-0.0	.195/.248/.276	.081	.254	6	11	25%	5%	40	-0.7
✕Elian Herrera 2016 · MLB	31	51→55	41→40	51→60	44	.247/.292/.349	.102	.308	9	13	22%	6%	79	+0.3	.232/.285/.337	.105	.307	9	9	26%	7%	72	-0.2	.182/.248/.198	.016	.278	0	0	32%	8%	20	-0.7
✕John Gall 2009 · AAA	31	51→53	46→45	46→50	47	.251/.298/.381	.130	.277	13	10	15%	6%	90	+1.0	.226/.276/.339	.113	.265	12	9	19%	6%	70	-0.3	.201/.256/.287	.086	.238	9	5	19%	6%	46	-1.5
✕Paulo Orlando 2018 · MLB	32	52→62	43→45	50→55	39	.254/.288/.367	.113	.313	10	13	22%	4%	82	+0.5	.218/.263/.341	.123	.277	12	8	25%	4%	65	-0.7	.195/.240/.321	.126	.248	13	5	26%	4%	47	-1.2
✕Joe McEwing 2004 · MLB	31	49→55	42→45	46→50	47	.237/.298/.340	.102	.284	9	10	20%	7%	79	+0.3	.238/.285/.320	.082	.289	7	12	19%	6%	68	-0.5	.251/.284/.329	.077	.301	7	16	19%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Sergio Palafox 2011 · AAA	31	51	38→40	46→45	50	.239/.293/.318	.079	.272	5	10	14%	7%	71	-0.3	.220/.269/.305	.085	.255	6	10	16%	6%	57	-1.2	.236/.270/.284	.048	.277	2	8	15%	3%	48	-0.4
✕Gil Velazquez 2012 · AAA	32	50→60	39→45	50	46	.238/.284/.328	.091	.283	6	13	18%	6%	69	-0.4	.258/.314/.326	.068	.309	5	9	17%	7%	82	+0.5	.260/.323/.308	.048	.312	3	5	16%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Shane Robinson 2016 · MLB	31	51→59	38→45	51→55	53	.238/.301/.321	.083	.273	5	13	15%	8%	76	+0.0	.239/.288/.318	.079	.277	4	17	15%	6%	69	-0.4	.247/.296/.323	.076	.278	5	18	13%	6%	71	-0.2
✕Cory Sullivan 2011 · MLB	31	51→60	40→45	50	49	.244/.298/.341	.097	.285	7	12	17%	7%	79	+0.3	.218/.288/.308	.090	.266	7	10	19%	9%	66	-0.6	.173/.266/.206	.033	.215	0	8	18%	11%	32	-0.6

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)