Manuel Margot

RF Toledo Mud Hens

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 229 lbs AAA HR -8% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	MLBTB	336	.264/.312/.376	4	9	93	0.7
2024	29	MLBMIN	343	.238/.292/.337	4	5	77	-0.9
2025	30	AAADET	144	.211/.299/.266	1	0	36	—	.189/.257/.242
2025	30	MLBDET	20	.316/.316/.316	0	0	72	-0.2
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ20% MLB	32	MLBDET	27	.239/.298/.335	0	0	82	-0.0
2028PROJ	33	MLBDET	114	.231/.289/.318	1	1	75	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA47

Bat Spd47

Avg EV33

Barrel%20

Speed10

CompsPaulo Orlando (age 32) · Shane Robinson (age 31) · Ronnier Mustelier (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8682vR 70

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .298 / .335

PA27

HR0

K%22

BB%7

BABIP292

ISO40

MLB%20%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

610.260

POWER

Barrel%

204.3

Avg EV

3387.8

Bat Spd

4771.1

SPEED

Sprint

1025.3

Platoon Splits2024 · 343 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

171

172

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

314

244

◀◀L

ISO

122

076

◀◀L

BABIP

300

246

◀◀L

14.6%

16.9%

◀L

BB%

7.6%

4.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox	—	310	260	74	10	7	4	36	25	8	33	9	285	387	423	810	138	297	8	12	359	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	56	50	17	5	0	2	2	5	1	3	2	340	377	560	937	220	333	9	4	389	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	413	370	106	20	5	10	37	49	2	39	13	286	355	449	803	162	309	12	9	354	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	282	258	70	21	4	3	21	36	1	19	8	271	329	419	747	147	303	13	7	330	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	198	181	51	6	5	3	11	15	1	20	5	282	326	420	746	138	289	8	6	323	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Toros del Este	—	91	78	17	3	1	3	8	19	0	2	2	218	291	397	688	179	237	21	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	37	37	9	4	1	0	0	7	0	2	0	243	243	405	649	162	300	19	0	280	84	-1	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.4
2016	21	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	566	517	157	21	12	6	36	64	4	30	11	304	354	426	779	122	335	11	6	342	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Toros del Este	—	157	143	37	6	0	2	9	14	1	15	1	259	307	343	650	84	271	9	6	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	529	487	128	18	7	13	35	106	2	17	7	263	315	409	724	146	309	20	7	319	104	+3	+1	+9	+2	+11	2.7
2017	22	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	23	20	3	0	1	0	3	4	0	2	0	150	261	250	511	100	188	17	13	240	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Toros del Este	—	32	30	14	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	1	467	484	533	1.017	67	500	9	3	441	185	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	519	477	117	26	8	8	32	88	2	11	10	245	295	384	679	138	281	17	6	298	88	-8	-2	+7	+2	+11	1.1
2019	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	441	398	93	19	3	12	38	88	2	20	4	234	304	387	691	153	272	20	9	307	96	-2	+2	+9	+2	+10	2.0
2019	24	INTL	Toros del Este	—	38	35	7	1	1	0	1	9	1	2	0	200	243	286	529	86	269	24	3	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	159	145	39	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	269	329	352	681	83	317	16	8	308	94	-1	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.5
2021	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	464	421	107	18	3	10	37	70	1	13	8	254	316	382	698	128	281	15	8	311	94	-4	-1	+10	-5	+10	1.1
2021	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	15	14	4	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	286	333	286	619		400	27	7	288	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	363	336	92	18	2	4	24	68	2	7	3	274	326	375	701	101	332	19	7	315	97	-1	+0	-1	-4	+8	0.2
2022	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	23	19	5	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	263	391	263	654		294	9	17	318	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	336	311	82	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	264	312	376	689	113	306	16	5	307	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2024	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	343	315	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	238	292	337	629	98	273	16	6	282	77	-10	+1	-4	-4	+7	-0.9
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	20	19	6	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	316	316	316	632		429	30	0	271	72	-1	+0	-0	-2	+0	-0.2
2025	30	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	144	128	27	2	1	1	12	27	4	0	1	211	299	266	564	55	260	19	8	267	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3211	2946	748	150	26	56	218	567	16	96	39	254	309	379	688	126	295	18	7	306	93	-26	+4	+32	-5	+70	7.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox	—	310	272	49	6	4	2	25	30	8	33	9	180	269	254	523	74	186	10	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	56	51	16	4	0	2	1	7	1	3	2	314	340	510	849	196	308	12	2	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	413	382	94	15	5	8	25	69	2	39	13	246	296	374	670	128	280	17	6	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	282	265	65	18	3	2	14	45	1	19	8	245	286	358	644	113	286	16	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	198	185	48	5	4	3	7	22	1	20	5	259	290	378	669	119	270	11	4	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	37	37	9	4	1	0	0	7	0	2	0	243	243	405	649	162	300	19	0	292	84	-1	+0	+1	+3	+1	0.4
2016	21	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	566	526	138	18	10	4	27	87	4	30	11	262	303	357	661	95	298	15	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	529	487	130	19	7	13	35	106	2	17	7	267	319	415	733	148	309	20	7	323	104	+3	+1	+9	+2	+11	2.7
2017	22	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	23	21	3	0	1	0	2	5	0	2	0	143	217	238	455	95	164	22	9	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	519	481	120	28	8	8	28	88	2	11	10	249	294	391	684	141	281	17	5	298	88	-8	-2	+7	+2	+11	1.1
2019	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	441	399	94	20	3	12	37	88	2	20	4	236	304	391	695	155	272	20	8	309	96	-2	+2	+9	+2	+10	2.0
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	159	145	38	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	262	323	345	668	83	317	16	8	307	94	-1	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	464	423	106	18	3	10	35	70	1	13	8	251	309	378	688	128	281	15	8	306	94	-4	-1	+10	-5	+10	1.1
2021	26	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	15	14	4	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	1	286	333	286	619		395	33	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	363	337	91	18	2	4	23	68	2	7	3	270	320	371	691	101	332	19	6	312	97	-1	+0	-1	-4	+8	0.2
2022	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	23	20	5	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	250	348	250	598		275	9	13	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	336	311	81	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	260	309	373	682	113	306	16	5	306	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	343	315	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	238	292	337	629	98	273	16	6	281	77	-10	+1	-4	-4	+7	-0.9
2025	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	20	19	6	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	316	316	316	632		429	30	0	275	72	-1	+0	-0	-2	+0	-0.2
2025	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	144	132	25	2	1	1	8	30	4	0	1	189	257	242	499	53	235	21	6	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox	—	310	272	49	6	4	2	25	30	8	33	9	180	269	254	523	74	192	10	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox	—	310	260	74	10	7	4	36	25	8	33	9	285	387	423	810	138	297	8	12	359	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	469	433	111	20	5	10	26	76	3	42	15	256	303	395	698	139	289	16	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	469	420	123	25	5	12	39	54	3	42	15	293	357	462	819	169	312	12	8	358	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	571	532	136	28	8	7	25	79	2	41	15	256	292	378	669	122	284	14	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	571	517	138	30	10	9	40	70	2	41	15	267	322	416	738	149	289	12	7	321	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	760	708	186	28	14	5	34	118	5	47	12	263	301	363	664	100	306	16	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	760	697	203	31	13	8	45	85	5	47	12	291	339	407	746	116	320	11	6	328	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	584	536	139	20	8	13	40	118	2	21	8	259	313	399	712	140	307	20	7	317	101	+1	+1	+9	+2	+13	2.6
2017	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	584	537	145	20	8	13	39	113	2	21	8	270	322	410	731	140	317	19	7	323	101	+1	+1	+9	+2	+13	2.6
2018	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	519	481	120	28	8	8	28	88	2	11	10	249	294	391	684	141	286	17	5	298	88	-8	-2	+7	+2	+11	1.1
2018	23	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	519	477	117	26	8	8	32	88	2	11	10	245	295	384	679	138	281	17	6	298	88	-8	-2	+7	+2	+11	1.1
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	432	103	22	3	13	40	96	3	22	4	238	307	394	701	155	279	20	8	309	96	-3	+3	+9	+2	+10	2.1
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	479	433	100	20	4	12	39	97	3	22	4	231	299	379	678	148	272	20	8	302	96	-3	+3	+9	+2	+10	2.1
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	159	145	38	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	262	323	345	668	83	308	16	8	307	94	-1	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.5
2020	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	159	145	39	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	269	329	352	681	83	317	16	8	308	94	-1	+1	+1	+1	+3	0.5
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	437	109	18	3	10	36	75	1	14	9	249	308	373	681	124	278	16	8	305	92	-4	-1	+10	-5	+10	1.0
2021	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	479	435	111	18	3	10	38	74	1	14	9	255	316	379	696	124	285	15	8	310	92	-4	-1	+10	-5	+10	1.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	386	357	96	18	2	4	26	70	2	7	3	269	322	364	686	95	324	18	7	309	95	-2	+0	-1	-4	+8	0.2
2022	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	386	355	97	18	2	4	28	70	2	7	3	273	330	369	699	96	330	18	7	315	95	-2	+0	-1	-4	+8	0.2
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	336	311	81	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	260	309	373	682	113	302	16	5	306	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2023	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	336	311	82	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	264	312	376	689	113	306	16	5	307	93	-3	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	343	315	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	238	292	337	629	98	273	16	6	281	77	-10	+1	-4	-4	+7	-0.9
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	343	315	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	238	292	337	629	98	273	16	6	282	77	-10	+1	-4	-4	+7	-0.9
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	164	151	31	2	1	1	8	36	4	0	1	205	264	252	515	46	261	22	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	164	147	33	2	1	1	12	33	4	0	1	224	301	272	573	48	281	20	7	267	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox	—	310	274	49	6	4	2	25	30	8	33	9	179	269	252	521	73	186	10	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	469	437	111	20	5	10	26	76	3	42	15	254	303	391	694	137	283	16	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	571	539	136	28	8	7	25	79	2	41	15	252	292	373	665	121	279	14	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	760	715	186	28	14	5	34	118	5	47	12	260	301	359	661	99	298	16	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	584	537	139	20	8	13	40	118	2	21	8	259	313	399	712	140	303	20	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	519	484	120	28	8	8	28	88	2	11	10	248	294	388	682	140	281	17	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	433	103	22	3	13	40	96	3	22	4	238	307	393	700	155	272	20	8	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	159	145	38	9	0	1	13	25	0	12	4	262	323	345	668	83	317	16	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	479	439	109	18	3	10	36	75	1	14	9	248	308	371	679	123	285	16	8	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	386	355	96	18	2	4	26	70	2	7	3	270	322	366	688	96	329	18	7	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	336	311	81	21	1	4	18	55	4	9	3	260	309	373	682	113	306	16	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	343	316	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	237	292	335	627	98	273	16	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	164	151	31	2	1	1	8	36	4	0	1	205	264	252	515	46	259	22	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	343	316	75	17	1	4	21	54	3	5	0	237	292	335	627	98	273	16	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	164	151	31	2	1	1	8	36	4	0	1	205	264	252	515	46	259	22	5	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	DET	20%	214	196	48	9	1	3	13	44	3	3	1	243	302	342	644	99	297	21	6	290	82	-4	+0	+1	-2	+5	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	DET	20%	27	25	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	239	298	335	633	96	292	22	7	286	82	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	DET	100%	114	104	24	4	1	1	7	24	2	1	0	235	292	324	617	89	290	21	6	279	75	-3	+0	-4	-1	+2	-0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	DET	100%	114	104	24	4	1	1	7	24	2	1	0	231	289	318	607	87	286	21	6	275	75	-3	+0	-4	-1	+2	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3325	3050	772	154	27	57	225	591	18	97	39	253	308	377	686	124	295	18	7	305	85	-30	+4	+28	-6	+72	7.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	150	30	5	11	44	116	4	19	8	252	307	374	682	122	293	18	7	305	85	-6	+1	+6	-1	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5806	5336	1328	246	60	85	355	971	43	267	93	249	301	365	666	116	287	17	6	294	85	-33	+4	+29	-7	+75	7.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	150	28	7	10	40	109	5	30	10	251	304	372	676	121	290	17	6	294	85	-6	+1	+5	-1	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 144 PAwOBA .260 → .222 (−38)K% 18.8% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.073	×1.200	—	—	20.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.60%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.51%
Singles /BIP	22.77%	÷0.993	×0.930	×1.005	×0.962	20.61%
Doubles /BIP	1.98%	÷0.953	×0.830	×1.005	×0.962	1.67%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.905	×0.970	×1.005	×0.962	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	0.99%	÷0.872	×0.700	—	×0.962	0.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .260 → .222; ISO .055 → .048; BABIP .260 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 23 PAwOBA .311 → .267 (−44)K% 8.7% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.70%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	10.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.992	11.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.41%	÷0.988	×0.930	—	×0.992	27.47%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.091	×0.830	—	×0.992	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .311 → .267; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .294 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAADurham Bulls · 15 PAwOBA .281 → .255 (−26)K% 26.7% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷1.029	×1.200	—	—	31.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.016	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.54%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.945	×0.930	—	×1.003	39.48%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.067	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 89, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .281 → .255; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .400 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 23 PAwOBA .235 → .193 (−41)K% 17.4% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.005	×1.290	—	—	22.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷0.921	×0.710	—	×1.050	10.56%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.040	×0.900	—	×1.050	11.36%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.983	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	6.25%	÷1.049	×0.810	—	×1.050	5.07%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.087	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 110, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .235 → .193; ISO .100 → .078; BABIP .188 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 566 PAwOBA .336 → .286 (−50)K% 11.3% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.31%	÷0.951	×1.290	—	—	15.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.36%	÷1.004	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.72%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.73%
Singles /BIP	26.05%	÷1.026	×0.900	×0.988	×1.050	23.71%
Doubles /BIP	4.64%	÷0.987	×0.810	×0.988	×1.050	3.95%
Triples /BIP	2.65%	÷1.028	×0.810	×0.988	×1.050	2.17%
Home runs /BIP	1.32%	÷1.160	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 106, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .336 → .286; ISO .122 → .096; BABIP .335 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 282 PAwOBA .322 → .286 (−36)K% 12.8% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.77%	÷0.983	×1.220	—	—	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.09%	÷1.067	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.88%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.32%
Singles /BIP	18.92%	÷0.970	×0.970	×0.959	×1.050	19.05%
Doubles /BIP	9.46%	÷1.026	×0.860	×0.959	×1.050	7.99%
Triples /BIP	1.80%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.959	×1.050	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.35%	÷0.994	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.11%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .322 → .286; ISO .147 → .124; BABIP .303 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Salem Red Sox · 198 PAwOBA .319 → .290 (−29)K% 7.6% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.58%	÷0.960	×1.420	—	—	11.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.56%	÷1.036	×0.630	—	×1.027	3.47%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.45%
Singles /BIP	22.29%	÷1.026	×0.940	×1.024	×1.027	21.48%
Doubles /BIP	3.61%	÷0.970	×0.830	×1.024	×1.027	3.25%
Triples /BIP	3.01%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.024	×1.027	2.20%
Home runs /BIP	1.81%	÷0.841	×0.900	—	×1.027	1.99%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .319 → .290; ISO .138 → .126; BABIP .289 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AGreenville Drive · 413 PAwOBA .344 → .290 (−54)K% 11.9% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.86%	÷0.955	×1.340	—	—	16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.96%	÷1.001	×0.660	—	×1.030	6.09%
HBP% /PA	0.48%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.38%
Singles /BIP	22.12%	÷0.992	×0.920	×0.990	×1.030	20.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.23%	÷1.096	×0.820	×0.990	×1.030	4.75%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.990	×1.030	1.66%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷1.045	×0.820	—	×1.030	2.52%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .344 → .290; ISO .162 → .134; BABIP .309 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Tommy McCraw'63-'75 * career totals — 13 seasons, 4,396 PA	6.6	4,396	75	143	254*	316*	403*	-64	+2	4.4	5.2
/162	664	11	22	-9.7	+0.4	0.7	pk7: 6
#3Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
#4Emil Brown'97-'09 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,508 PA	3.8	2,508	59	52	247*	314*	388*	-25	+8	3.5	4.0
/162	664	16	14	-6.6	+2.1	0.9	pk7: 5
#5Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4
#6Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	3.4	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
/162	664	15	9	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.0	3,295	58	95	254	306	378	-35	+24	2.5	2.8
/162	664	12	19	-7.1	+4.9	0.5	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Margot (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	241/299/339	98	297	2	2	20%	6%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Paulo Orlando 2018 · MLB	32	53→63	43→45	50→55	39	257/291/369	112	317	9	13	22%	4%	85	+0.2	208/252/326	118	265	12	8	26%	4%	61	-1.5	184/226/301	117	233	12	5	27%	3%	44	-1.8
✕Shane Robinson 2016 · MLB	31	50→56	38→45	52→55	52	236/297/320	84	272	5	13	15%	8%	76	-0.4	232/280/309	77	268	4	18	14%	6%	67	-1.1	233/280/306	73	261	5	18	13%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Ronnier Mustelier 2017 · AAA	32	53→59	40→45	53→50	48	255/298/349	94	283	7	10	13%	5%	83	+0.1	259/303/356	97	286	8	9	12%	6%	86	+0.3	284/329/391	107	303	10	7	10%	5%	104	+0.9
✕Rusney Castillo 2018 · MLB	31	52→57	44→45	52→50	41	254/289/372	117	296	11	15	19%	4%	85	+0.2	249/282/357	108	290	11	11	18%	4%	79	-0.2	250/281/348	98	290	10	9	17%	3%	73	-0.5
✕Brendan Ryan 2014 · MLB	32	43→53	39→40	48→55	49	208/275/294	86	254	6	11	20%	8%	63	-1.4	202/258/280	78	267	5	8	25%	6%	53	-2.1	185/233/235	50	261	1	6	28%	5%	31	-1.2
✕Matt Reynolds 2023 · MLB	32	49→59	40→45	50	47	228/299/320	92	318	7	9	29%	9%	78	-0.3	219/284/365	146	306	14	9	31%	8%	82	+0.0	201/265/366	165	279	16	8	33%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Gil Velazquez 2012 · AAA	32	50→57	39→45	50	46	238/285/328	91	282	6	14	18%	6%	74	-0.6	247/303/312	65	296	4	8	17%	7%	76	-0.4	247/307/292	45	296	2	5	16%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Juan Lagares 2021 · MLB	32	47→57	45	50	45	233/289/356	123	294	12	11	25%	7%	82	-0.0	231/272/360	129	288	11	6	23%	5%	76	-0.4	235/265/370	135	292	11	2	23%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Vinny Rottino 2012 · AAA	32	52→57	41→45	50→55	50	250/302/352	103	280	8	16	14%	7%	86	+0.3	235/283/356	121	270	11	17	17%	6%	80	-0.2	210/267/304	95	256	9	8	21%	6%	62	-1.0
✕Eder Salcedo 2015 · AAA	32	52→60	41→40	48→50	44	253/288/348	95	292	9	11	17%	5%	79	-0.2	228/260/316	88	264	8	9	17%	4%	61	-1.5	231/257/300	68	267	6	7	16%	3%	55	-1.2
✕Dixon Machado 2024 · MLB	32	48→57	40→45	48→55	53	231/307/324	93	272	8	7	18%	9%	82	-0.0	212/290/294	82	260	8	7	20%	9%	69	-0.9	194/275/250	55	240	5	5	20%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Daniel Robertson 2018 · MLB	32	53→58	38→40	49→55	48	250/294/332	82	281	5	15	14%	6%	78	-0.3	232/295/343	111	273	10	15	18%	7%	82	-0.0	216/288/326	110	254	10	16	18%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Adam Everett 2009 · MLB	32	48→53	41→45	46→50	50	226/279/331	104	249	8	8	13%	6%	72	-0.7	222/275/313	91	261	6	9	17%	6%	67	-1.1	225/277/308	82	263	5	8	16%	6%	67	-0.7
✕Kristopher Negrón 2018 · MLB	32	44→49	44→45	55	40	216/270/334	117	283	11	17	27%	5%	70	-0.9	221/280/345	124	318	14	14	33%	6%	76	-0.4	215/277/333	118	317	14	14	35%	7%	70	-0.6
✕Joe McEwing 2005 · MLB	32	48→52	38→45	49→50	45	229/277/306	77	280	6	10	20%	6%	65	-1.2	235/270/320	85	285	8	12	20%	4%	65	-1.2	233/264/313	80	285	7	11	21%	3%	60	-1.1
✕Ryan LaMarre 2021 · MLB	32	49→52	45	51→60	39	235/290/362	126	333	11	17	32%	6%	84	+0.1	224/298/349	125	312	12	22	30%	7%	85	+0.2	208/289/321	114	294	11	27	31%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Chris Stewart 2014 · MLB	32	45	39→45	51→45	53	216/288/297	81	242	8	8	14%	8%	69	-0.9	246/311/318	72	289	5	5	16%	7%	81	-0.1	260/323/305	45	309	1	0	15%	7%	83	+0.0
✕Willy Taveras 2014 · AAA	32	45→55	40→45	55→65	43	215/263/311	95	257	7	17	19%	4%	61	-1.5	233/286/336	103	282	8	26	20%	5%	76	-0.4	242/294/346	104	295	8	27	20%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Charlie Culberson 2022 · MLB	33	49→54	47→45	53→50	44	241/292/382	142	301	13	13	24%	6%	89	+0.5	226/271/339	113	305	11	12	28%	6%	71	-0.8	206/235/275	69	295	7	12	32%	4%	43	-0.5
✕Bobby Smith 2006 · AAA	32	47	45→50	54→50	44	233/282/351	118	279	13	11	22%	6%	78	-0.3	225/270/355	130	302	14	11	29%	6%	75	-0.5	204/236/338	134	293	13	7	35%	4%	55	-0.7

Manuel Margot

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps