Matt McLain — OGILVIE

Matt McLain2B Cincinnati Reds

Age 26 R/R 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 2.814S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION309 act + 236 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 105100vR 85

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .333 / .406

PA236

HR7

SB10

K%28

BB%11

BABIP324

ISO159

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

768.3%

xwOBA

510.310

POWER45

Barrel%

569.0

Avg EV

4889.0

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE55

Chase%

9022.0%

SPEED60

Sprint

7928.6

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 689 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

159

530

—

wRC+

103

◀◀L

wOBA

320

284

◀L

ISO

126

121

◀L

BABIP

311

283

◀L

27.7%

28.1%

—

BB%

13.8%

9.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.814 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+3.5	$26M	+$19M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+3.3	$23M	+$13M
2029	Arb-4	$17M	+3.0	$19M	+$7M
Totals		$37M		$70M	+$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	20	4	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	192	288	317	605	125	246	28	10	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	273	390	424	814	152	329	20	14	366	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	2 teams	—	549	479	91	18	7	19	55	195	12	33	4	190	289	376	665	186	269	36	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	2 teams	—	549	450	101	23	6	19	84	158	12	33	4	224	361	429	790	204	297	29	15	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	—	583	519	148	33	5	25	51	159	12	24	10	285	363	513	875	227	366	27	9	378	147	+31	+1	+3	+6	+17	5.9
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	—	583	509	155	35	5	28	61	152	12	24	10	305	392	558	950	253	385	26	10	414	175	+49	+1	+3	+6	+17	7.8
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	109	17	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	214	296	329	626	116	285	29	10	282	74	-17	+3	+6	+2	+16	1.1
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	220	302	343	645	124	292	29	10	291	81	-13	+3	+6	+2	+16	1.5
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	MLB	CIN	—	309	268	51	13	0	8	36	83	3	11	2	190	293	328	622	138	243	27	12	281	73	-9	+1	+2	+1	+9	0.4
YTD	26	MLB	CIN	—	309	268	51	13	0	8	36	83	3	11	2	190	293	328	622	138	243	27	12	284	76	-8	+1	+2	+1	+9	0.5
ROS	26	MLB	CIN	100%	236	207	51	10	1	7	25	65	2	10	2	246	333	406	739	159	320	28	11	328	109	+2	+1	+1	+1	+7	1.2
ROS	26	MLB	CIN	100%	236	207	51	10	1	7	25	65	2	10	2	246	333	406	739	159	323	28	11	324	106	+2	+1	+1	+1	+7	1.2
FULL	26	MLB	CIN	—	545	475	102	23	1	15	61	148	5	21	4	215	311	362	673	147	278	27	11	300	87	-8	+3	+3	+2	+15	1.5
TOT	26	MLB	CIN	—	545	475	102	23	1	15	61	148	5	21	4	215	311	362	673	147	278	27	11	301	89	-7	+3	+3	+2	+15	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	CIN	98%	572	499	125	25	2	16	62	157	6	25	5	251	340	405	745	154	330	27	11	334	114	+9	+3	+2	+2	+16	3.3
2028	28	MLB	CIN	98%	564	491	123	24	2	16	62	156	6	23	4	251	342	405	747	155	330	28	11	333	113	+8	+3	+2	+2	+16	3.2
2029	29	MLB	CIN	98%	552	480	120	24	2	15	61	154	6	21	4	250	342	402	744	152	329	28	11	331	112	+7	+3	+1	+2	+16	2.9
2030	30	MLB	CIN	98%	540	471	117	23	2	15	59	152	5	19	4	248	338	401	740	153	327	28	11	328	109	+6	+2	+0	+2	+15	2.6
2031	31	MLB	CIN	98%	525	457	111	22	1	14	58	149	5	16	3	243	335	387	722	144	324	28	11	324	106	+3	+2	-1	+2	+15	2.2
2032	32	MLB	CIN	98%	511	445	105	20	1	13	56	147	5	13	2	236	328	373	701	137	320	29	11	318	101	+1	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.8
2033	33	MLB	CIN	98%	476	417	96	18	1	12	52	140	4	9	2	230	321	365	686	134	314	29	11	310	95	-3	+1	-2	+2	+13	1.2
2034	34	MLB	CIN	94%	429	376	84	15	1	10	46	129	4	6	1	223	315	348	663	125	306	30	11	300	88	-6	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.6
2027	27	MLB	CIN	98%	561	489	125	25	2	17	61	154	6	25	5	256	345	419	765	164	334	27	11	330	111	+7	+3	+2	+2	+16	3.1
2028	28	MLB	CIN	98%	553	482	122	24	2	16	60	153	6	23	4	253	343	411	754	158	333	28	11	329	110	+6	+3	+2	+2	+16	2.9
2029	29	MLB	CIN	98%	541	472	120	24	2	16	59	151	5	21	4	254	343	415	759	161	332	28	11	327	109	+5	+3	+1	+2	+15	2.7
2030	30	MLB	CIN	98%	529	461	115	23	2	15	58	149	5	18	3	249	340	406	745	156	331	28	11	324	106	+4	+2	+0	+2	+15	2.4
2031	31	MLB	CIN	98%	514	448	110	22	1	14	56	146	5	16	3	246	336	393	729	147	328	28	11	320	103	+2	+2	-1	+2	+15	2.0
2032	32	MLB	CIN	98%	501	436	104	20	1	13	55	144	5	13	2	239	331	378	709	140	323	29	11	314	98	-1	+2	-1	+2	+14	1.6
2033	33	MLB	CIN	98%	466	408	95	18	1	12	51	137	4	9	2	233	324	370	694	137	317	29	11	306	92	-4	+1	-2	+2	+13	1.0
2034	34	MLB	CIN	94%	401	351	78	14	1	9	43	120	4	6	1	222	314	345	659	123	309	30	11	296	85	-7	+1	-3	+1	+11	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5282	4629	1138	221	17	150	554	1501	54	173	33	246	333	398	732	152	329	28	10	321	104	+23	+21	+9	+24	+150	23.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	570	139	27	2	18	68	185	7	21	4	244	332	393	725	149	327	28	10	321	104	+3	+3	+1	+3	+18	2.8
Career	—			—	6292	5505	1312	255	25	183	663	1824	74	228	45	238	328	393	722	155	320	29	11	318	101	+8	+28	+9	+27	+178	25.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	136	26	3	19	68	188	8	24	5	239	329	395	724	156	321	29	10	318	101	+1	+3	+1	+3	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	273	390	424	814	152	329	20	14	366	138	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	452	371	86	21	5	17	70	127	8	27	3	232	365	453	818	221	300	28	15	363	136	+18	+4	—	—	+13	3.6
2022	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	97	79	15	2	1	2	14	31	4	6	1	190	340	316	657	127	283	32	14	310	96	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	403	365	106	23	4	16	31	115	7	14	5	290	357	507	864	216	385	29	8	380	149	+22	+1	+3	+6	+11	4.5
2023	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	180	144	49	12	1	12	30	37	5	10	5	340	469	688	1.157	347	385	21	17	491	234	+27	+0	—	—	+5	3.3
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	383	151	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	220	302	343	645	124	292	29	10	291	81	-13	+3	+6	+2	+16	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	980	875	218	41	4	31	86	282	12	32	7	249	325	411	736	162	330	29	9	327	109	+10	+4	+9	+8	+28	6.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Coco Crisplast yr '16 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,627 PA	15	6,627	130	309	265	327	402	+4	+51	30.8	28.0
	/162	664	13	31	265	327	402	+0.4	+5.1	3.1	pk7: 25
#2Carlos Gómezlast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,227 PA	13	5,227	145	268	252	313	411	+11	+80	28.2	26.7
	/162	664	18	34	252	313	411	+1.4	+10.2	3.6	pk7: 25
#3B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#4Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	5,900	164	200	241	325	389	+21	+52	22.8	20.6
	/162	664	18	23	241	325	389	+2.4	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 18
#5Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	11	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
	/162	664	13	19	256	330	390	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
#6Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt McLain (OGILVIE)	26	40	45	60	55	215/311/362	147	278	15	21	27%	11%	89	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	46→45	59→60	46	223/313/356	133	303	14	29	29%	9%	92	+1.2	222/312/331	109	296	11	21	26%	10%	85	+0.7	215/311/310	95	283	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕José Caballero 2023 · AA	26	46→45	46→45	58→70	60	225/336/357	132	282	14	33	24%	13%	101	+1.8	227/323/345	118	296	11	49	25%	10%	92	+1.2	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	49→51	48→50	59→60	47	242/311/383	141	320	15	32	28%	9%	96	+1.5	231/302/359	128	317	14	30	30%	9%	86	+0.8	227/297/360	133	323	13	24	32%	9%	81	+0.3
●Desmond Jennings 2013 · MLB	26	49→59	48→50	62→60	50	243/315/390	147	288	15	31	21%	8%	100	+1.7	242/316/389	147	288	14	20	20%	9%	100	+1.7	240/318/381	142	284	12	19	19%	9%	97	+1.1
✕Dylan Moore 2020 · MLB	27	42→47	47→50	50→65	44	214/283/357	143	275	14	20	27%	7%	79	+0.3	222/315/398	176	288	20	30	28%	9%	103	+1.9	210/332/386	176	289	16	41	30%	12%	104	+1.0
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	46→54	47→50	55	49	230/296/376	146	276	14	25	22%	8%	89	+0.9	243/316/375	132	305	12	19	23%	10%	96	+1.5	251/325/369	118	318	10	18	23%	10%	95	+1.2
✕Justin Maxwell 2010 · MLB	26	44	51→60	59→60	44	221/293/377	156	305	19	31	33%	8%	88	+0.9	219/300/386	167	319	20	25	35%	10%	93	+1.3	223/297/433	210	304	27	17	34%	9%	101	+0.9
●Ha-Seong Kim 2022 · MLB	26	43→53	50	52→60	47	221/289/379	158	264	18	12	24%	8%	86	+0.8	251/331/396	145	293	15	21	19%	10%	108	+2.3	253/340/394	141	292	15	26	18%	11%	108	+2.1
✕Blake Perkins 2023 · AAA	26	40→50	49→50	56→55	47	208/287/358	150	280	17	19	31%	9%	80	+0.4	234/312/365	131	316	13	21	28%	10%	92	+1.2	239/321/358	119	322	11	25	27%	10%	91	+0.6
●Aaron Altherr 2017 · MLB	26	46→52	48→55	52→50	46	230/298/376	146	290	15	15	25%	8%	89	+1.0	225/305/395	170	292	19	10	28%	9%	98	+1.6	214/297/390	177	277	20	8	29%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	49→56	47→50	57→60	44	243/298/388	145	297	13	20	23%	6%	92	+1.2	232/297/356	124	303	11	15	26%	7%	83	+0.6	240/282/379	139	307	10	8	24%	5%	78	+0.1
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	41→51	49→50	63→60	42	207/272/361	154	294	15	30	34%	8%	75	-0.0	258/320/395	137	318	13	34	22%	7%	103	+1.9	272/336/397	125	324	11	37	18%	7%	107	+1.9
✕Jake Slaughter 2023 · AA	26	46→47	48→50	54→55	40	226/297/364	138	321	16	24	33%	6%	86	+0.8	220/288/369	149	305	18	20	32%	7%	84	+0.6	209/278/355	146	288	18	20	33%	7%	73	-0.1
●Carlos Gómez 2012 · MLB	26	47→57	46→60	60→65	44	233/288/370	137	287	13	29	24%	6%	83	+0.6	268/322/468	200	319	23	37	23%	6%	124	+3.4	279/340/490	211	332	24	40	23%	6%	133	+3.8
✕Keon Broxton 2016 · AAA	26	47→48	49→55	58→60	40	227/283/383	156	332	16	25	35%	7%	84	+0.6	218/290/386	168	342	19	35	39%	9%	89	+0.9	199/280/366	166	324	20	40	42%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	40→41	52→55	57→55	45	217/276/382	165	258	21	26	26%	7%	82	+0.5	223/280/386	163	269	20	22	25%	6%	85	+0.7	215/273/387	171	253	20	20	23%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Corey Patterson 2006 · MLB	26	48→54	51→55	55→60	43	245/290/407	163	294	19	23	24%	6%	94	+1.3	249/288/392	143	284	16	35	18%	5%	89	+0.9	248/285/385	136	275	14	41	16%	4%	81	+0.4
●Cameron Maybin 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	46→50	57→55	50	243/308/374	131	289	13	28	20%	8%	92	+1.2	252/314/365	113	305	10	18	19%	8%	92	+1.2	259/332/373	114	311	10	30	19%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	46→55	51→50	58→65	42	234/296/390	156	317	20	33	32%	7%	92	+1.2	235/305/350	115	323	11	40	28%	8%	85	+0.7	233/305/335	103	318	8	43	27%	8%	78	+0.2
●Sean Rodríguez 2012 · MLB	27	46→49	50→60	50	47	234/315/396	162	285	17	15	24%	8%	102	+1.9	222/293/370	148	271	15	9	23%	7%	86	+0.8	241/300/442	201	299	25	4	27%	6%	105	+1.0