Matt McLain

2B Cincinnati Reds
Age 27 R/R 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 3.814 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202424INTLGlendale Dese…59.240/.356/.52041145—
202525MLBCIN577.220/.302/.3431518790.9
202626MLBCIN496.185/.275/.334152067-0.3
2027PROJ27MLBCIN458.218/.303/.3701523871.0
2028PROJ92% MLB28MLBCIN412.216/.300/.3651319850.7
2029PROJ92% MLB29MLBCIN400.214/.298/.3581216830.5
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.814First FA2030
2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$5M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2026
Speed81
Barrel%55
Bat Spd55
xwOBA45
Avg EV43
Form.205/.270/.341 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .215/.298/.360
CompsMichael Helman (age 27) · Kyle Datres (age 28) · Jake Slaughter (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9187vR 76
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .303 / .370
PA458
HR15
SB23
K%28
BB%10
BABIP276
ISO155
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +4.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+4RUNFLD: +2.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+3FLDPOS: +1.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +9.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +1.30+1.3WAR
0.00.91.81.30.70.527282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026
CONTACT40
xAVG
150.223
POWER45
Barrel%
559.0
Avg EV
4388.6
Bat Spd
5571.9
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
8128.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%30%▼▼32% over 81 PA (60d) · proj 28%
BB%7%▼▼4% over 81 PA (60d) · proj 10%
ISO.136·.118 over 76 AB (60d) · proj .145
HR/BB4.5%·3.9% over 51 BBE (60d) · proj 4.8%
BABIP.271·.204 over 49 BIP (60d) · proj .275
SLASH.205/.270/.341▼▼proj .215/.298/.360
Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 689 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
159
530
—
wRC+
103
79
◀◀L
wOBA
320
284
◀L
ISO
126
121
◀L
BABIP
311
283
◀L
K%
27.7%
28.1%
—
BB%
13.8%
9.2%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.814 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$3M+1.3$10M+$8M
2028Arb-2$4M+0.7$3M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Arb-3$5M+0.5$2M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $3M $15M +$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202121 A+Dayton Dragons — 11999 27603 17242 102 273390424814 152329 2014 366 75 — — — — — —
202222 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 452371 8621517 701278 273 232365453818 221300 2815 363 84 — — — — — —
202222 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 9779 15212 14314 61 190340316657 127283 3214 310 96 — — — — — —
202323 MLBCincinnati Reds — 403365 10623416 311157 145 290357507864 216385 298 380 138 +18 +1 +3 +6 +9 3.8
202323 AAALouisville Bats — 180144 4912112 30375 105 3404696881.157 347385 2117 491 155 — — — — — —
202424 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 5950 12204 9210 10 240356520876 280320 3615 383 145 — — — — — —
202525 MLBCincinnati Reds — 577510 11218015 551675 182 220302343645 124292 2910 291 79 -14 +3 +6 +2 +13 0.9
202626 MLBCincinnati Reds — 496437 8118115 481396 204 185275334609 149232 2810 275 67 -19 +2 +2 +2 +11 -0.3
202626 AAALouisville Bats — 2017 5200 251 00 294400412812 118417 2510 371 91 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 14761312 29959546 13442118 5211 228308386694 158297 299 310 96 -7 +6 +11 +10 +32 5.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202121 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 119104 22503 12332 102 212305346651 135267 2810 279 75 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 452394 7718514 471538 273 195294373667 178269 3410 292 84 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 403365 10523415 311157 145 288355496851 208385 298 373 138 +18 +1 +3 +6 +9 3.8
202323 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 180153 441119 21445 105 288391549940 261342 2412 397 155 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 577510 11118014 551675 182 218300335635 118292 2910 285 79 -14 +3 +6 +2 +13 0.9
202626 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 496438 8018114 471396 204 183271324595 142232 289 267 67 -19 +2 +2 +2 +11 -0.3
202626 AAA MLELouisville Bats — 2018 5200 161 00 278350389739 111372 305 302 91 — — — — — —
202121 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 119104 22503 12332 102 212305346651 135275 2810 279 75 — — — — — —
202121 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 11999 27603 17242 102 273390424814 152329 2014 366 75 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLE2 teams — 549476 9422617 5818612 334 197300376676 179279 3411 292 84 — — — — — —
202222 AA RAW2 teams — 549450 10123619 8415812 334 224361429790 204297 2915 354 84 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLE2 teams — 583518 14834523 5215912 2410 286364504868 218371 279 380 143 +30 +1 +3 +6 +13 5.4
202323 MLB RAW2 teams — 583509 15535528 6115212 2410 305392558950 253385 2610 414 143 +30 +1 +3 +6 +13 5.4
202424 INTL MLEGlendale Desert Dogs — 5950 12204 9210 10 240356520876 280320 3615 — — — — — — — —
202424 INTL RAWGlendale Desert Dogs — 5950 12204 9210 10 240356520876 280320 3615 383 145 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 577510 11118014 551675 182 218300335635 118291 2910 285 79 -14 +3 +6 +2 +13 0.9
202525 MLB RAWCincinnati Reds — 577510 11218015 551675 182 220302343645 124292 2910 291 79 -14 +3 +6 +2 +13 0.9
202626 MLB MLE2 teams — 516456 8420114 481457 204 184272325597 140234 289 269 68 -20 +2 +2 +2 +11 -0.2
202626 MLB RAW2 teams — 516454 8620115 501447 204 189280337617 148239 2810 279 68 -20 +2 +2 +2 +11 -0.2
202121 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 119104 22503 12332 102 212305346651 135267 2810 279 75 — — — — — —
202222 AA MLE2 teams — 549474 9422617 5818612 334 198300378678 179269 3411 292 84 — — — — — —
202323 MLB MLE2 teams — 583514 14834523 5215912 2410 288364508872 220371 279 380 143 — — — — — —
202525 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 577512 11118014 551675 182 217300334634 117292 2910 285 79 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLE2 teams — 516456 8420114 481457 204 184272325597 140237 289 269 68 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202525 MLB MLECincinnati Reds — 577512 11118014 551675 182 217300334634 117292 2910 285 79 — — — — — —
202626 MLB MLE2 teams — 516456 8420114 481457 204 184272325597 140237 289 269 68 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202727 MLB MLECIN 100% 531469 10219116 511466 265 216300360660 145275 2710 297 87 -8 +3 +3 +2 +12 1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202727 MLB CTXCIN 100% 458406 8916115 441265 234 218303370673 152276 2810 302 87 -7 +3 +3 +2 +10 1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202828 MLB MLECIN 92% 448397 8516113 431245 204 214298355654 142274 2810 295 85 -8 +2 +2 +2 +10 0.8
202929 MLB MLECIN 92% 435386 8115112 411225 173 211295349644 138272 289 291 83 -9 +2 +1 +2 +9 0.5
203030 MLB MLECIN 92% 419373 7715011 391194 143 208291341632 133269 289 286 80 -10 +2 +0 +1 +9 0.2
202828 MLB CTXCIN 92% 412365 8015113 391145 194 216300365666 149275 289 299 85 -7 +2 +2 +1 +9 0.7
202929 MLB CTXCIN 92% 400355 7614112 381124 163 214298358656 145273 2810 295 83 -8 +2 +1 +1 +9 0.5
203030 MLB CTXCIN 92% 385342 7113011 361094 133 210294350643 139270 289 290 80 -9 +1 +0 +1 +8 0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 26732374 526101782 24775631 10021 222303374677 152287 289 303 87 -32 +12 +14 +14 +58 6.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650577 12925220 601848 245 224305378683 154290 289 303 87 -8 +3 +3 +4 +14 1.6
Career— MLE — 41633676 80216415124 401120257 18036 218305372677 154286 2910 296 87 -41 +15 +17 +16 +70 7.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650574 12526219 631889 286 218305369675 152286 2910 296 87 -8 +3 +3 +3 +14 1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALouisville Bats · 20 PAwOBA .362 → .302 (−59)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.000×1.200——30.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0036.92%
HBP% /PA5.00%—×0.940—×1.0034.71%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.930—×1.00323.32%
Doubles /BIP16.67%÷1.000×0.830—×1.00313.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0030.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .362 → .302; ISO .118 → .095; BABIP .417 → .372. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 180 PAwOBA .479 → .397 (−82)K% 20.6% → 24.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.56%÷1.004×1.200——24.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.11%÷0.993×0.690—×1.04811.73%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.940—×1.0482.74%
Singles /BIP22.43%÷0.998×0.930×0.958×1.04820.99%
Doubles /BIP11.21%÷0.938×0.830×0.958×1.0489.96%
Triples /BIP0.93%÷1.042×0.970×0.958×1.0480.87%
Home runs /BIP11.21%÷1.054×0.700—×1.0487.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .479 → .397; ISO .347 → .268; BABIP .385 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 452 PAwOBA .356 → .292 (−63)K% 28.1% → 33.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.10%÷1.010×1.220——33.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.27%÷1.019×0.680—×1.02710.46%
HBP% /PA1.77%—×0.840—×1.0271.53%
Singles /BIP17.62%÷1.002×0.920×0.984×1.02716.35%
Doubles /BIP8.61%÷1.084×0.910×0.984×1.0277.30%
Triples /BIP2.05%÷0.912×0.880×0.984×1.0272.00%
Home runs /BIP6.97%÷0.990×0.800—×1.0275.78%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .356 → .292; ISO .221 → .189; BABIP .300 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Dayton Dragons · 119 PAwOBA .360 → .279 (−81)K% 20.2% → 27.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.17%÷0.986×1.350——27.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.008×0.710—×1.01210.19%
HBP% /PA1.68%—×0.810—×1.0121.38%
Singles /BIP24.00%÷1.061×0.910×0.950×1.01219.80%
Doubles /BIP8.00%÷1.011×0.830×0.950×1.0126.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.820×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP4.00%÷0.960×0.830—×1.0123.50%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 112, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .360 → .279; ISO .152 → .123; BABIP .329 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .