Matt McLain — OGILVIE

Matt McLain2B Cincinnati Reds

Age 26 R/R 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 2.814S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION478 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 105102vR 91

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP307

ISO149

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

847.4%

xAVG

190.226

POWER45

Barrel%

569.1

Avg EV

4588.8

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE55

Chase%

9019.7%

SPEED60

Sprint

8128.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%28%·27% over 102 PA (30d) · proj 28%

BB%9%▼7% over 149 PA (45d) · proj 10%

ISO.167▲.189 over 132 AB (60d) · proj .149xISO .155 vs .165 prior — approach does NOT back the move

HR/BB6.2%▲7.6% over 92 BBE (60d) · proj 5.1%barrel% 9.4% vs 9.0% prior — approach flat: likely noise/luck

BABIP.287▼.200 over 85 BIP (60d) · proj .296xBABIP .253 vs .296 prior — approach backs the move

SLASH.231/.304/.398·proj .229/.313/.378

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 689 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

159

530

—

wRC+

103

◀◀L

wOBA

320

284

◀L

ISO

126

121

◀L

BABIP

311

283

◀L

27.7%

28.1%

—

BB%

13.8%

9.2%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.814 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+2.2	$16M	+$11M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+2.1	$14M	+$7M
2029	Arb-4	$13M	+1.8	$11M	+$2M
Totals		$29M		$42M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	273	390	424	814	152	329	20	14	366	134	+5	+1	—	—	+3	0.9
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	452	371	86	21	5	17	70	127	8	27	3	232	365	453	818	221	300	28	15	363	132	+17	+4	—	—	+10	3.2
2022	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	97	79	15	2	1	2	14	31	4	6	1	190	340	316	657	127	283	32	14	310	96	-0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	403	365	106	23	4	16	31	115	7	14	5	290	357	507	864	216	385	29	8	380	143	+21	+1	+3	+6	+9	4.0
2023	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	180	144	49	12	1	12	30	37	5	10	5	340	469	688	1.157	347	385	21	17	491	218	+25	+0	—	—	+4	3.0
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	383	145	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	220	302	343	645	124	292	29	10	291	83	-12	+3	+6	+2	+13	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	980	875	218	41	4	31	86	282	12	32	7	249	325	411	736	162	330	29	9	327	108	+9	+4	+9	+8	+21	5.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	212	305	346	651	135	263	28	10	276	73	-4	+1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2022	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	452	394	75	17	5	13	47	153	8	27	3	190	290	358	647	168	262	34	10	285	79	-11	+4	—	—	+10	0.3
2023	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	403	365	104	22	4	15	31	115	7	14	5	285	352	490	843	205	385	29	8	366	134	+16	+1	+3	+6	+9	3.6
2023	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	180	154	42	11	1	8	20	44	5	10	5	273	374	513	887	240	324	24	11	382	145	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	218	300	335	635	118	292	29	10	280	76	-17	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.7
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	212	305	346	651	135	275	28	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	273	390	424	814	152	329	20	14	366	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	477	90	20	6	16	57	186	12	33	4	189	291	356	648	168	266	34	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	549	450	101	23	6	19	84	158	12	33	4	224	361	429	790	204	297	29	15	354	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	583	519	146	33	5	23	51	159	12	24	10	281	359	497	856	216	364	27	9	371	137	+26	+1	+3	+6	+13	4.9
2023	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	583	509	155	35	5	28	61	152	12	24	10	305	392	558	950	253	385	26	10	414	137	+26	+1	+3	+6	+13	4.9
2024	24	INTL MLE	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL RAW	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	240	356	520	876	280	320	36	15	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	218	300	335	635	118	291	29	10	280	76	-17	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.7
2025	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	220	302	343	645	124	292	29	10	291	76	-17	+3	+6	+2	+13	0.7
2021	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	212	305	346	651	135	263	28	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	549	475	90	20	6	16	57	186	12	33	4	189	291	358	649	168	262	34	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	583	515	146	33	5	23	51	159	12	24	10	283	359	501	860	217	366	27	9	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	512	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	217	300	334	634	117	292	29	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	583	515	146	33	5	23	51	159	12	24	10	283	359	501	860	217	366	27	9	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	577	512	111	18	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	217	300	334	634	117	292	29	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	478	418	78	18	0	14	48	131	7	17	3	187	281	330	611	144	233	27	10	270	69	-18	+2	+2	+2	+10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CIN	—	458	400	75	17	0	15	47	125	6	17	3	188	283	343	625	155	229	27	10	282	69	-17	+2	+2	+2	+10	-0.1
YTD	26	AAA RAW	CIN	—	20	17	5	2	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	294	400	412	812	118	417	25	10	371	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	26	MLB RAW	CIN	—	458	400	75	17	0	15	47	125	6	17	3	188	283	343	625	155	229	27	10	282	77	-13	+2	+2	+2	+10	0.3
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		303	30	10	319	102	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		307	30	10	316	102	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CIN	—	468	409	76	17	0	15	48	128	6	17	3	186	281	337	618	152	228	27	10	283	70	-17	+2	+2	+2	+10	-0.1
TOT	26	MLB MLE	CIN	—	488	427	79	18	0	14	49	134	7	17	3	185	280	326	605	141	231	27	10	271	70	-18	+2	+2	+2	+11	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	572	501	118	23	2	17	58	159	8	24	4	236	325	391	716	156	304	28	10	319	102	+2	+3	+3	+2	+12	2.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	564	494	116	22	2	17	58	157	7	23	4	235	324	391	714	156	304	28	10	318	102	+1	+3	+2	+2	+12	2.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	552	483	113	22	2	16	57	155	7	21	4	234	324	387	711	153	303	28	10	316	100	+0	+3	+2	+2	+12	1.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	540	472	108	21	1	15	56	153	7	18	3	229	320	373	693	144	301	28	10	313	98	-1	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.6
2031	31	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	525	459	104	20	1	15	54	151	7	15	3	227	317	373	690	146	298	29	10	309	95	-3	+2	+0	+2	+11	1.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	511	448	99	19	1	14	52	149	6	12	2	221	310	362	672	141	294	29	10	303	91	-5	+2	-1	+2	+11	0.9
2033	33	MLB MLE	CIN	98%	476	418	89	16	1	12	49	141	6	9	2	213	304	342	647	129	288	30	10	295	86	-8	+1	-2	+2	+10	0.4
2034	34	MLB MLE	CIN	94%	429	377	78	14	1	10	44	130	5	6	1	207	298	329	627	122	281	30	10	286	79	-11	+1	-3	+2	+9	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	561	492	118	23	2	18	57	156	7	24	4	240	327	404	732	165	308	28	10	316	102	+2	+3	+3	+2	+12	2.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	553	484	116	23	2	18	57	154	7	22	4	240	328	407	735	167	308	28	10	315	102	+1	+3	+2	+2	+12	2.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	541	473	113	22	2	17	56	152	7	20	4	239	328	402	730	163	307	28	10	313	100	+0	+2	+2	+2	+12	1.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	529	462	108	21	1	16	55	150	7	18	3	234	324	387	712	154	305	28	10	310	98	-1	+2	+1	+2	+11	1.6
2031	31	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	514	449	103	20	1	15	53	147	7	15	3	229	320	379	699	149	302	29	10	306	95	-3	+2	+0	+2	+11	1.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	501	439	99	19	1	14	51	146	6	12	2	226	315	369	684	144	298	29	10	300	91	-5	+2	-1	+2	+11	0.8
2033	33	MLB CTX	CIN	98%	466	409	89	16	1	13	48	138	6	9	2	218	309	357	666	139	292	30	10	292	86	-8	+1	-2	+2	+10	0.3
2034	34	MLB CTX	CIN	94%	401	352	74	13	1	10	41	121	5	5	1	210	302	338	640	128	284	30	10	282	79	-10	+1	-2	+1	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5056	4444	1039	198	15	152	505	1449	64	157	30	234	321	388	708	154	309	29	10	310	93	-15	+19	+13	+23	+110	15.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	134	25	2	20	65	186	8	20	4	235	321	391	711	156	310	29	10	310	93	-2	+2	+2	+3	+14	2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6066	5321	1207	235	22	176	613	1764	84	214	41	227	316	379	695	152	302	29	10	306	93	-16	+20	+13	+23	+112	15.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	129	25	2	19	66	189	9	23	4	226	316	377	693	151	301	29	10	306	93	-2	+3	+2	+3	+14	1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	8.8	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
/162	664	19	34	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#2Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	8.0	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
/162	664	24	18	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#3Brandon Ingelast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,617 PA	8.5	5,617	152	45	233	301	384	+26	+73	19.8	20.5
/162	664	18	5	+3.1	+8.6	2.3	pk7: 21
#4Jackie Bradley Jr.last yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,192 PA	6.3	4,192	109	69	225	303	381	+6	+78	17.2	18.6
/162	664	17	11	+1.0	+12.3	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.2	6,081	177	203	228	312	377	+22	+52	17.8	16.3
/162	664	19	22	+2.4	+5.7	1.9	pk7: 15
#5Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	4.7	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
/162	664	19	34	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt McLain (OGILVIE)	26	40	45	60	55	232/319/387	155	303	17	24	28%	10%	102	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	50→55	46→50	57→60	44	244/299/387	143	299	12	20	22%	6%	93	+0.8	232/298/357	125	303	11	15	26%	7%	86	+0.3	237/279/373	137	305	9	8	25%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Corey Patterson 2006 · MLB	26	48→55	51→55	55→60	43	245/290/407	163	294	19	23	24%	6%	95	+0.9	249/288/392	143	284	16	35	18%	5%	90	+0.6	248/285/385	136	275	14	41	16%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Dylan Moore 2020 · MLB	27	43→48	47→50	50→65	44	217/285/360	143	273	14	20	26%	7%	82	+0.0	221/315/394	173	286	19	30	28%	9%	102	+1.5	207/330/379	172	285	16	41	30%	12%	101	+0.7
●Ha-Seong Kim 2022 · MLB	26	42→52	49→50	52→60	47	218/286/368	150	261	16	12	24%	8%	84	+0.2	246/326/383	137	289	14	21	19%	10%	103	+1.5	248/335/380	132	288	14	26	18%	11%	102	+1.4
✕Desmond Jennings 2013 · MLB	26	49→59	47→50	62→60	50	242/314/384	142	289	14	31	21%	8%	98	+1.2	243/318/387	144	290	13	20	20%	9%	100	+1.3	241/319/381	139	287	12	19	19%	10%	98	+0.8
✕Jake Marisnick 2017 · MLB	26	45→54	45→60	53→55	39	222/267/346	124	288	12	25	27%	5%	72	-0.7	231/291/420	189	306	23	18	31%	6%	99	+1.2	231/295/439	208	305	27	18	33%	6%	102	+0.7
●Carlos Gómez 2012 · MLB	26	46→56	46→60	60→65	44	231/285/363	132	285	12	29	24%	6%	82	+0.0	263/318/452	189	315	21	37	23%	6%	116	+2.5	274/334/472	198	328	22	40	23%	6%	123	+2.8
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2023 · MLB	26	52→55	44→50	53→50	50	253/318/376	123	313	11	17	22%	8%	97	+1.1	251/302/373	122	303	12	14	20%	7%	91	+0.6	247/295/355	108	296	10	13	19%	6%	81	-0.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2011 · MLB	26	47→49	54→60	53→50	44	241/309/422	181	302	21	14	27%	7%	105	+1.7	226/304/364	138	279	14	12	23%	8%	91	+0.6	243/301/448	205	299	26	4	27%	6%	106	+0.8
✕Michael Helman 2023 · AAA	27	41	49→50	57→55	46	214/274/360	146	257	18	26	25%	7%	78	-0.3	219/277/367	148	268	17	22	24%	6%	80	-0.1	209/267/365	156	250	18	20	24%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	47→54	48→50	55	50	235/301/382	148	279	14	25	21%	8%	93	+0.8	245/319/380	135	305	13	19	22%	10%	99	+1.2	251/326/371	120	316	11	18	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Justin Maxwell 2011 · MLB	27	44	46→60	56→60	48	214/300/342	128	311	13	30	33%	10%	84	+0.1	223/300/404	181	317	22	20	34%	9%	98	+1.2	221/295/426	205	300	26	17	34%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Drew Stubbs 2011 · MLB	26	50→57	47→50	59→60	47	242/311/382	139	321	14	32	28%	9%	97	+1.1	232/303/359	127	319	14	30	30%	9%	88	+0.4	235/304/374	140	334	14	24	32%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Jayson Nix 2010 · MLB	27	45→49	51→55	51→55	48	234/300/397	163	275	19	19	23%	8%	97	+1.1	219/284/377	158	267	19	11	25%	7%	86	+0.3	207/270/357	150	257	17	9	26%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Kyle Datres 2023 · AA	27	42	49→50	56→55	44	214/290/357	143	288	17	23	31%	8%	84	+0.1	208/287/335	127	289	15	21	31%	9%	78	-0.3	192/278/307	115	267	14	21	31%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Kevin Kiermaier 2017 · MLB	27	51→57	49→55	59→55	49	253/312/415	162	288	15	22	18%	7%	104	+1.6	241/303/405	164	290	17	20	22%	7%	99	+1.2	250/313/390	140	320	11	17	24%	7%	96	+0.6
●Aaron Altherr 2017 · MLB	26	46→52	46→55	52→50	46	228/297/365	138	288	13	15	25%	8%	88	+0.4	225/304/389	164	294	18	10	28%	9%	96	+1.0	213/296/383	170	278	19	8	29%	9%	89	+0.3
✕Nick Senzel 2021 · MLB	26	47→57	49→50	51→50	46	236/295/389	153	292	15	17	25%	7%	92	+0.7	232/294/343	111	274	11	12	19%	8%	81	-0.1	211/283/342	131	253	16	9	23%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Gerald Laird 2006 · MLB	26	47	49→50	53→50	45	238/295/390	152	283	17	12	23%	6%	93	+0.8	249/300/393	144	301	14	9	21%	6%	95	+0.9	251/304/383	132	302	12	6	20%	6%	91	+0.4
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	194/257/310	116	274	9	24	32%	6%	60	-1.6	221/275/344	123	302	11	17	29%	5%	74	-0.5	223/283/355	132	299	13	23	29%	5%	77	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps