Matt McLain — OGILVIE

Matt McLain2B Cincinnati Reds

Age 26 R/R 5'8" / 180 lbs MLB HR +9%K -4% Svc 2.814S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.4 · 2027

wRC+†vL 8691vR 68

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .316 / .384

PA577

HR18

SB21

K%28

BB%10

xwOBA.314

Barrel%7.8%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

45→45

SPD

60→60

EYE

57↘55

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.814 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+2.0	$16M	+$14M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+2.4	$20M	+$15M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+2.2	$19M	+$11M
2029	Arb-4	$11M	+2.0	$17M	+$7M
Totals		$26M		$72M	+$46M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	119	104	22	5	0	3	12	33	2	10	2	.212	.305	.346	.651	.135	.275	28	10	.279	72	-4	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.1
2022	22	AA	2 teams	549	478	91	21	5	19	56	199	12	33	4	.190	.291	.374	.666	.184	.274	36	10	.289	79	-13	+5	+0	+2	+16	1.0
2023	23	MLB	2 teams	583	519	147	33	5	24	51	159	12	24	10	.283	.361	.505	.866	.222	.365	27	9	.372	143	+28	+1	+3	+6	+17	5.6
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	.240	.356	.520	.876	.280	.320	36	15	—	—	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	577	510	108	17	0	14	55	167	5	18	2	.212	.295	.327	.622	.116	.282	29	10	.277	70	-19	+3	+6	+2	+16	0.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	107	90	18	5	0	0	15	26	2	4	2	.200	.327	.256	.583	.056	.281	24	14	.278	71	-3	+0	+2	+0	+3	0.2
ROS	26	MLB	CIN	470	412	94	18	1	12	49	129	6	17	4	.228	.319	.364	.683	.136	.301	27	10	.311	96	-2	+2	+3	+2	+13	1.8
TOT	26	MLB	CIN	577	502	112	23	1	12	64	155	8	21	6	.223	.321	.345	.665	.122	.297	27	11	.305	91	-6	+2	+5	+2	+16	2.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB	CIN	572	498	114	21	1	15	61	128	8	20	5	.229	.323	.365	.688	.137	.276	22	11	.311	96	-3	+2	+4	+2	+16	2.2
2028	28	MLB	CIN	564	492	112	21	1	14	60	127	7	19	5	.228	.320	.360	.680	.132	.276	23	11	.310	95	-3	+2	+3	+2	+16	2.0
2029	29	MLB	CIN	552	481	109	20	1	14	59	126	7	18	4	.227	.320	.360	.680	.133	.275	23	11	.307	93	-4	+2	+2	+2	+16	1.8
2030	30	MLB	CIN	540	470	105	20	1	13	58	125	7	16	4	.223	.318	.353	.671	.130	.273	23	11	.304	91	-5	+2	+2	+2	+15	1.5
2031	31	MLB	CIN	525	456	101	19	1	12	57	124	7	13	3	.221	.317	.346	.664	.125	.272	24	11	.301	88	-7	+1	+1	+2	+15	1.2
2032	32	MLB	CIN	506	441	96	18	1	11	54	122	6	10	2	.218	.311	.338	.649	.120	.270	24	11	.296	85	-9	+1	-0	+2	+14	0.9
2033	33	MLB	CIN	476	416	88	16	1	10	51	118	6	8	1	.212	.307	.327	.633	.115	.269	25	11	.290	80	-11	+1	-1	+2	+13	0.5
2034	34	MLB	CIN	429	375	79	14	1	9	46	110	5	6	0	.211	.305	.325	.630	.115	.267	26	11	.284	76	-12	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.1
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6521	5702	1278	245	19	174	678	1688	90	213	46	.224	.316	.365	.682	.141	.285	26	10	.302	89	-80	+24	+21	+27	+185	18.2
/ 162G	—			650	568	127	24	2	17	68	168	9	21	5	.224	.316	.363	.679	.139	.285	26	10	.302	89	-8	+2	+2	+3	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	119	99	27	6	0	3	17	24	2	10	2	.273	.390	.424	.814	.152	.329	20	14	.366	138	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2022	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	452	371	86	21	5	17	70	127	8	27	3	.232	.365	.453	.818	.221	.300	28	15	.363	136	+18	+4	—	—	+13	3.6
2022	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	97	79	15	2	1	2	14	31	4	6	1	.190	.340	.316	.657	.127	.283	32	14	.310	96	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2023	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	403	365	106	23	4	16	31	115	7	14	5	.290	.357	.507	.864	.216	.385	29	8	.380	149	+22	+1	+3	+6	+11	4.5
2023	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	180	144	49	12	1	12	30	37	5	10	5	.340	.469	.688	1.157	.347	.385	21	17	.491	234	+27	+0	—	—	+5	3.3
2024	24	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	59	50	12	2	0	4	9	21	0	1	0	.240	.356	.520	.876	.280	.320	36	15	.383	151	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2025	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	577	510	112	18	0	15	55	167	5	18	2	.220	.302	.343	.645	.124	.292	29	10	.291	81	-13	+3	+6	+2	+16	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			980	875	218	41	4	31	86	282	12	32	7	.249	.325	.411	.736	.162	.330	29	9	.327	109	+10	+4	+9	+8	+28	6.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt McLain (OGILVIE)	26	40	45	60	55	.227/.319/.363	.135	.276	15	21	22%	11%	96	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕José Caballero 2023 · AA	26	45	46→45	58→70	58	.222/.330/.350	.129	.281	13	31	24%	13%	97	+1.5	.227/.324/.345	.118	.296	11	48	25%	10%	93	+1.3	.229/.321/.344	.115	.305	10	63	26%	9%	87	+0.6
●Ha-Seong Kim 2022 · MLB	26	42→52	49→50	52→60	47	.218/.287/.369	.151	.262	17	12	24%	8%	83	+0.6	.243/.322/.379	.136	.286	14	20	19%	10%	100	+1.7	.245/.333/.377	.132	.285	13	26	18%	11%	100	+1.6
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	46→47	44→45	59→60	46	.220/.309/.338	.117	.303	11	30	29%	8%	85	+0.7	.222/.314/.329	.107	.299	10	22	27%	10%	85	+0.7	.216/.313/.311	.095	.285	9	20	25%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Peter Bourjos 2013 · MLB	26	49→55	48→55	59→60	43	.246/.298/.399	.154	.298	14	21	22%	6%	95	+1.4	.231/.296/.355	.124	.300	11	15	25%	7%	82	+0.5	.239/.281/.377	.139	.307	10	8	25%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Mark Mathias 2022 · MLB	27	47→46	46→50	53→50	44	.234/.289/.369	.135	.288	13	14	23%	6%	83	+0.6	.253/.329/.400	.147	.345	17	19	29%	9%	108	+2.3	.255/.341/.389	.134	.350	16	20	29%	10%	109	+1.2
●Ke'Bryan Hayes 2023 · MLB	26	53→54	45→50	53→50	49	.255/.320/.383	.128	.315	11	16	22%	8%	99	+1.7	.250/.302/.372	.122	.302	12	14	20%	7%	89	+1.0	.243/.292/.349	.106	.292	10	13	19%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Nick Senzel 2021 · MLB	26	48→56	50	52→50	46	.241/.298/.399	.158	.298	16	17	25%	7%	95	+1.4	.231/.293/.343	.112	.274	11	12	19%	8%	78	+0.2	.209/.282/.339	.129	.252	16	9	23%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Carlos Sosa 2007 · AAA	26	47	44→45	53→50	47	.233/.297/.350	.117	.274	12	15	19%	6%	82	+0.5	.242/.303/.347	.105	.274	10	13	15%	7%	83	+0.6	.253/.317/.358	.105	.275	9	13	11%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Gerald Laird 2006 · MLB	26	47	49→50	52→50	45	.238/.295/.386	.148	.284	17	12	23%	6%	90	+1.0	.248/.299/.394	.146	.299	15	9	22%	6%	94	+1.3	.251/.304/.383	.132	.302	12	6	20%	6%	90	+0.6
✕Chip Ambres 2006 · MLB	26	49	48→50	52→50	51	.242/.317/.393	.151	.292	15	20	22%	9%	102	+1.8	.218/.291/.358	.140	.272	15	12	25%	9%	82	+0.5	.214/.283/.358	.144	.260	17	6	24%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Josh Rojas 2020 · MLB	26	46→55	48→50	55	49	.231/.297/.380	.149	.276	14	24	22%	8%	89	+1.0	.245/.318/.381	.136	.306	13	20	22%	9%	98	+1.6	.254/.328/.372	.118	.320	10	18	22%	10%	95	+1.1
✕Scott Kingery 2020 · MLB	26	48→51	49→55	54→55	42	.239/.288/.396	.157	.302	16	17	26%	6%	90	+1.0	.212/.276/.348	.136	.298	13	15	31%	8%	72	-0.2	.172/.251/.279	.106	.266	8	18	36%	9%	41	-0.8
●Taylor Motter 2016 · AAA	26	49	47→60	51→55	46	.243/.291/.379	.136	.281	14	20	19%	6%	87	+0.8	.212/.269/.347	.135	.247	15	19	21%	7%	69	-0.4	.216/.294/.407	.191	.261	25	5	27%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Blake Perkins 2023 · AAA	26	40→50	49→50	56→55	46	.206/.285/.351	.145	.281	17	19	32%	9%	78	+0.2	.229/.308/.355	.126	.310	12	21	28%	10%	88	+0.9	.235/.317/.343	.108	.318	10	25	27%	10%	83	+0.3
✕Dylan Moore 2021 · MLB	28	45→48	52→50	53→65	45	.231/.307/.404	.173	.287	18	25	26%	7%	101	+1.8	.215/.316/.385	.170	.285	19	31	30%	10%	100	+1.7	.207/.329/.377	.170	.285	16	41	30%	12%	100	+0.9
●Hiram Bocachica 2002 · MLB	26	48	47→55	52→55	47	.237/.297/.380	.143	.291	13	14	23%	7%	89	+1.0	.229/.285/.392	.163	.275	19	13	24%	7%	88	+0.9	.242/.328/.417	.175	.271	21	22	19%	9%	110	+1.2
●Josh Smith 2023 · MLB	25	48→53	46→45	52→50	51	.234/.325/.366	.131	.293	13	18	23%	9%	98	+1.6	.234/.323/.360	.126	.288	12	12	22%	9%	96	+1.5	.239/.327/.362	.123	.288	12	10	20%	9%	94	+1.0
✕Antonio Perez 2005 · MLB	25	50	46→45	51→55	54	.244/.328/.378	.135	.303	13	13	23%	11%	102	+1.9	.237/.305/.350	.113	.320	10	15	27%	8%	85	+0.7	.221/.292/.321	.100	.306	7	14	28%	7%	70	-0.1
✕Matt Vierling 2023 · MLB	26	49→55	45→50	52→50	46	.242/.298/.366	.124	.292	13	16	22%	7%	86	+0.8	.252/.312/.387	.135	.309	14	10	22%	8%	98	+1.6	.252/.317/.390	.138	.311	14	7	22%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Manuel Margot 2021 · MLB	26	51→53	46→50	54→60	50	.249/.308/.386	.137	.288	12	23	18%	8%	95	+1.4	.257/.315/.377	.120	.299	11	18	17%	8%	95	+1.4	.260/.315/.371	.111	.303	9	15	17%	7%	89	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)