Luke Williams — OGILVIE

Luke WilliamsSS Gwinnett Stripers

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 186 lbs AAA Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION247 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .251 / .299

PA164

HR3

SB12

K%30

BB%7

BABIP251

ISO113

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 28 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT28

Whiff%

3013.2%

xwOBA

100.232

POWER40

Barrel%

133.4

Avg EV

2987.5

EYE43

Chase%

4033.7%

SPEED68

Sprint

7328.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	141	126	27	4	0	0	13	33	1	9	2	214	293	246	539	32	290	23	9	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	141	118	34	5	0	0	21	23	1	9	2	288	400	331	731	42	358	16	15	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	411	72	14	0	1	19	113	2	29	2	175	215	217	432	41	237	26	4	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	402	87	16	0	1	28	83	2	29	2	216	271	264	535	47	268	19	6	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	2 teams	—	473	430	89	11	1	6	27	118	11	14	8	207	271	279	550	72	268	25	6	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	2 teams	—	473	419	98	13	2	9	38	86	11	14	8	234	314	339	653	105	271	18	8	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	455	85	25	3	7	35	147	6	30	9	187	254	301	555	114	255	29	7	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	441	105	30	3	11	49	113	6	30	9	238	323	395	717	156	292	22	10	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	77	72	21	2	0	1	2	16	0	3	0	292	311	361	672	69	345	21	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	77	72	21	2	0	1	2	16	0	3	0	292	311	361	672	69	345	21	3	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	251	229	52	8	1	1	17	58	1	9	5	227	283	284	567	57	293	23	7	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	251	224	58	9	2	1	22	52	1	9	5	259	328	330	658	71	326	21	9	297	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	3 teams	—	242	221	54	11	1	2	18	84	1	22	6	244	304	330	634	86	382	35	7	286	77	-6	+2	+1	-3	+7	0.1
2022	25	MLB	3 teams	—	242	217	58	11	2	2	22	73	1	22	6	267	338	364	702	97	392	30	9	316	100	+0	+2	+1	-3	+7	0.8
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	433	390	91	13	4	11	34	113	4	32	6	233	301	372	673	138	295	26	8	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	433	374	93	14	4	12	50	96	4	32	6	249	343	404	747	155	299	22	12	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	293	269	61	18	0	8	18	94	2	21	4	227	280	383	663	156	312	32	6	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	2 teams	—	293	262	70	22	0	9	25	75	2	21	4	267	336	454	790	187	337	26	9	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	130	122	13	3	0	0	5	49	2	8	0	107	155	131	286	25	176	38	4	127	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA	2 teams	—	130	119	14	3	0	0	8	41	2	8	0	118	186	143	329	25	177	32	6	160	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	AAA	ATL	—	247	225	38	8	1	4	17	76	3	23	2	169	237	267	503	98	234	31	7	223	29	-20	+4	+0	-3	+7	-1.2
YTD	29	AAA	ATL	—	247	217	44	10	1	5	25	63	3	23	2	203	294	327	621	124	262	26	10	283	75	-7	+4	+0	-3	+7	0.1
ROS	29	AAA	ATL	10%	164	150	28	6	1	3	11	49	2	12	2	186	251	299	549	113	249	30	7	248	48	-10	+2	-1	+2	+5	-0.3
ROS	29	MLB	ATL	10%	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	200	250	267	517	67	249	31	6	240	42	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	29	AAA	ATL	—	263	240	41	9	1	4	18	81	3	24	2	171	238	267	504	96	239	31	7	224	30	-21	+4	-0	-2	+7	-1.2
TOT	29	AAA	ATL	—	411	375	66	14	2	7	28	125	5	35	4	176	242	280	522	104	241	30	7	233	36	-30	+5	-1	-1	+12	-1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	ATL	27%	286	262	48	10	1	5	19	85	3	17	3	183	246	286	533	103	247	30	7	245	45	-18	+2	-4	+3	+8	-0.9
2027	30	MLB	ATL	27%	78	72	13	3	0	1	5	23	1	5	1	181	244	264	507	83	247	29	6	237	40	-5	+1	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	443	408	84	18	1	3	30	124	3	31	7	206	265	277	542	71	287	28	7	249	49	-26	+3	-2	+6	+13	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	122	26	1	4	44	182	4	45	10	204	262	270	533	67	285	28	7	249	49	-37	+5	-2	+9	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	3436	3137	641	125	12	45	218	959	35	206	47	204	264	295	558	91	275	28	6	242	43	-220	+22	-6	+28	+97	-8.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	122	24	2	9	41	181	7	39	9	206	265	298	564	93	276	28	6	242	43	-42	+4	-1	+5	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	141	118	34	5	0	0	21	23	1	9	2	288	400	331	731	42	358	16	15	341	119	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2017	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	402	87	16	0	1	28	83	2	29	2	216	271	264	535	47	268	19	6	242	43	-28	+5	—	—	+13	-1.1
2018	21	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	437	388	95	13	1	9	35	76	9	14	7	245	322	353	675	108	280	17	8	305	91	-4	+0	—	—	+12	0.8
2018	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	36	31	3	0	1	0	3	10	2	0	1	97	222	161	384	65	143	28	8	194	7	-4	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2019	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	441	105	30	3	11	49	113	6	30	9	238	323	395	717	156	292	22	10	318	101	+1	+2	—	—	+14	1.8
2020	23	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	77	72	21	2	0	1	2	16	0	3	0	292	311	361	672	69	345	21	3	290	80	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2021	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	108	98	24	4	0	1	10	23	0	2	2	245	315	316	631	71	311	21	9	291	81	-2	-0	+1	+1	+3	0.3
2021	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	143	126	34	5	2	0	12	29	1	7	3	270	338	341	679	71	337	20	8	302	89	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.3
2022	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	136	127	30	5	1	1	9	44	0	11	4	236	287	315	602	79	354	32	7	274	68	-5	+1	+1	-3	+4	-0.2
2022	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	58	49	16	4	0	1	8	18	0	9	2	327	421	469	890	143	484	31	14	392	158	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	25	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	48	41	12	2	1	0	5	11	1	2	0	293	383	390	773	98	400	23	10	345	122	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	19	19	1	0	0	0	0	7	0	4	0	53	53	53	105		83	37	0	48	-105	-4	+1	-1	+5	+1	0.1
2023	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	414	355	92	14	4	12	50	89	4	28	6	259	357	423	780	163	309	21	12	346	123	+11	+3	—	—	+12	2.6
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	52	46	9	3	0	0	4	13	1	3	0	196	275	261	535	65	273	25	8	246	47	-3	+1	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2024	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	241	216	61	19	0	9	21	62	1	18	4	282	349	495	844	213	351	26	9	367	139	+11	+2	—	—	+7	2.0
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	34	31	4	2	0	0	1	9	1	5	0	129	182	194	375	65	174	26	3	171	-11	-4	+1	-3	+1	+1	-0.4
2025	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	96	88	10	1	0	0	7	32	1	3	0	114	188	125	312	11	179	33	7	157	-22	-13	+1	—	—	+3	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	349	321	68	14	1	2	24	96	2	25	6	212	271	280	551	69	295	28	7	252	51	-19	+3	-0	+5	+10	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Alexi Casillalast yr '13 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,883 PA	7	1,883	12	80	248	302	332	+8	+3	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	4	28	248	302	332	+2.8	+0.9	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	394	4	22	223	283	306	+4	+0	0.1	0.1
	/162	664	7	37	223	283	306	+7.1	+0.4	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Williams (OGILVIE)	29	28	40	68	43	176/242/280	104	241	7	35	30%	7%	36	-1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jorge Mateo 2023 · MLB	28	44→46	47→50	60→65	40	221/269/365	144	285	13	32	27%	5%	74	-0.1	218/266/352	134	276	13	40	25%	6%	69	-0.4	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Drew Jackson 2022 · AAA	29	43	45	57→55	47	207/296/332	126	302	13	28	33%	10%	78	+0.2	215/291/329	114	357	12	21	39%	9%	74	-0.1	187/265/256	69	364	8	20	46%	9%	41	-0.8
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Ryan Strausborger 2017 · MLB	29	44→47	42→45	56→55	40	219/262/323	104	275	10	26	24%	5%	59	-1.1	213/277/320	107	308	10	17	32%	7%	66	-0.6	171/269/240	69	292	4	15	38%	10%	41	-0.6
✕Jacob Hannemann 2019 · MLB	28	39→41	42→45	56→60	40	198/247/301	103	257	10	27	27%	5%	47	-1.9	211/266/332	121	265	13	21	25%	6%	64	-0.8	196/270/340	144	222	16	30	20%	8%	66	-0.1
✕Lane Adams 2019 · MLB	29	42→46	45→50	59→60	39	204/265/323	119	312	12	32	37%	7%	61	-1.0	202/270/352	150	319	18	17	40%	7%	72	-0.2	179/253/346	167	275	22	14	42%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Tanner Kirwer 2023 · AA	27	44	43→40	59→60	45	214/295/319	105	309	12	32	32%	9%	74	-0.1	212/279/316	104	299	11	27	31%	7%	66	-0.6	180/249/269	88	246	11	46	30%	7%	38	-0.9
✕Darren Ford 2016 · AAA	30	46→53	41→45	58→65	44	222/275/316	94	285	9	39	25%	6%	63	-0.8	223/272/305	82	291	6	24	24%	6%	58	-1.2	221/267/269	48	296	1	23	24%	5%	43	-1.6
✕Andrew Velazquez 2023 · MLB	29	43→51	46→50	60	39	214/267/340	126	306	13	31	34%	6%	66	-0.6	207/258/322	115	316	13	33	37%	6%	58	-1.2	211/254/305	94	318	10	30	35%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Nick Heath 2021 · MLB	27	43→35	41→40	63→65	39	199/265/300	100	330	9	43	40%	8%	55	-1.4	202/268/320	118	330	12	27	39%	7%	63	-0.9	178/258/290	112	301	10	36	41%	8%	48	-0.8
✕Trent Durrington 2007 · MLB	31	48→45	39→40	59→60	44	228/281/311	82	293	6	35	24%	6%	64	-0.8	221/280/306	85	284	6	26	23%	7%	63	-0.9	210/281/264	54	271	2	33	21%	8%	50	-0.7
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2022 · MLB	27	43→52	44→45	59→65	38	214/262/331	116	287	11	35	29%	5%	62	-0.9	213/273/338	125	291	14	30	31%	5%	69	-0.4	188/256/296	108	256	15	44	31%	5%	50	-0.9
✕Luis Bolivar 2010 · AAA	29	45→55	42→45	60→55	39	221/261/332	111	279	9	27	24%	4%	61	-1.0	205/247/306	101	277	9	20	29%	4%	49	-1.8	184/227/266	82	259	8	18	31%	4%	27	-2.1
●Dairon Blanco 2022 · AAA	29	45→49	46→50	58→70	40	224/279/355	131	294	14	32	28%	6%	76	+0.0	255/314/393	138	332	15	63	26%	6%	100	+1.7	267/329/405	137	352	15	90	26%	6%	106	+1.1
✕Todd Donovan 2008 · AAA	29	50→53	39→40	61→65	46	236/293/324	88	288	6	38	20%	6%	72	-0.2	233/306/311	78	304	4	35	22%	9%	75	-0.0	234/314/303	69	308	3	42	23%	10%	74	-0.1
✕Isaac Galloway 2019 · MLB	29	44→43	49→45	53→55	41	225/276/372	147	282	16	25	27%	6%	79	+0.3	207/250/339	132	302	15	18	35%	5%	59	-1.1	146/169/240	95	242	14	18	46%	2%	-4	-1.6
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	41→40	57→60	49	216/288/311	95	273	8	35	23%	9%	68	-0.5	227/294/306	79	301	6	35	25%	8%	69	-0.4	226/297/286	59	306	4	40	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Keon Broxton 2019 · MLB	29	41→48	50→55	60	40	199/273/355	156	329	19	34	43%	9%	74	-0.1	188/261/317	129	343	16	24	46%	8%	59	-1.1	158/241/269	111	299	17	23	49%	9%	37	-1.1
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2015 · AAA	28	41→50	40→45	59→60	41	201/250/296	95	261	6	32	25%	5%	47	-1.9	222/272/311	89	269	6	26	19%	5%	60	-1.0	234/297/356	122	296	11	26	24%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Wynton Bernard 2022 · AAA	31	40→50	41→45	60	40	199/249/301	103	264	8	27	28%	5%	48	-1.9	234/284/358	124	291	12	32	23%	6%	78	+0.2	241/291/361	120	296	11	37	22%	6%	78	+0.2