Luke Williams

SS Gwinnett Stripers

Age 30 R/R 6'1" / 186 lbs AAA Svc 0.761 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAAPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	AAAATL	241	.282/.349/.495	9	18	76	—	.220/.269/.368
2024	27	MLBATL	52	.196/.275/.261	0	3	53	-0.0
2025	28	AAAATL	96	.114/.188/.125	0	3	-37	—	.088/.135/.099
2025	28	MLBATL	34	.129/.182/.194	0	5	2	-0.3
2026	29	AAAATL	363	.218/.312/.367	9	37	40	—	.169/.234/.272
2027PROJ10% MLB	30	MLBATL	21	.201/.264/.312	0	2	62	0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	31	MLBATL	53	.198/.259/.303	1	3	58	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.761First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed97

Max EV77

BB%51

Z-Con%48

Whiff%35

K%34

CompsTrent Durrington (age 31) · Esix Snead (age 30) · Terrance Gore (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .264 / .312

PA21

HR0

K%29

BB%5

BABIP268

ISO50

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT29

xAVG

100.172

POWER37

Barrel%

133.4

Avg EV

2987.5

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED72

Sprint

7328.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2021

Service 0.761 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	141	118	34	5	0	0	21	23	1	9	2	288	400	331	731	42	358	16	15	341	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	402	87	16	0	1	28	83	2	29	2	216	271	264	535	47	268	19	6	242	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	437	388	95	13	1	9	35	76	9	14	7	245	322	353	675	108	280	17	8	305	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	36	31	3	0	1	0	3	10	2	0	1	97	222	161	384	65	143	28	8	194	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	441	105	30	3	11	49	113	6	30	9	238	323	395	717	156	292	22	10	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	77	72	21	2	0	1	2	16	0	3	0	292	311	361	672	69	345	21	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	108	98	24	4	0	1	10	23	0	2	2	245	315	316	631	71	311	21	9	291	82	-2	-0	+1	+1	+2	0.2
2021	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	143	126	34	5	2	0	12	29	1	7	3	270	338	341	679	71	337	20	8	302	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	136	127	30	5	1	1	9	44	0	11	4	236	287	315	602	79	354	32	7	274	73	-4	+1	+1	-3	+3	-0.2
2022	25	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	58	49	16	4	0	1	8	18	0	9	2	327	421	469	890	143	484	31	14	392	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	48	41	12	2	1	0	5	11	1	2	0	293	383	390	773	98	400	23	10	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	19	19	1	0	0	0	0	7	0	4	0	53	53	53	105		83	37	0	48	-82	-4	+1	-1	+5	+0	0.1
2023	26	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	414	355	92	14	4	12	50	89	4	28	6	259	357	423	780	163	309	21	12	346	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	52	46	9	3	0	0	4	13	1	3	0	196	275	261	535	65	273	25	8	246	53	-3	+1	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2024	27	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	241	216	61	19	0	9	21	62	1	18	4	282	349	495	844	213	351	26	9	367	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	34	31	4	2	0	0	1	9	1	5	0	129	182	194	375	65	174	26	3	171	2	-4	+1	-3	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	96	88	10	1	0	0	7	32	1	3	0	114	188	125	312	11	179	33	7	157	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	363	316	69	18	1	9	40	92	3	37	3	218	312	367	679	149	278	25	11	305	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	349	321	68	14	1	2	24	96	2	25	6	212	271	280	551	69	295	28	7	252	57	-18	+3	-0	+5	+8	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	141	126	27	4	0	0	13	33	1	9	2	214	293	246	539	32	286	23	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	411	73	13	0	1	19	112	2	29	2	178	218	217	434	39	234	25	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	437	397	81	11	1	6	26	108	9	14	7	204	269	282	551	78	257	25	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	455	91	25	3	7	35	139	6	30	9	200	266	314	580	114	261	28	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	108	98	24	4	0	1	10	23	0	2	2	245	315	316	631	71	311	21	9	290	82	-2	-0	+1	+1	+2	0.2
2021	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	143	130	31	4	2	0	8	35	1	7	3	238	288	300	588	62	298	24	6	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	136	128	30	5	1	1	8	44	0	11	4	234	279	312	592	78	354	32	6	277	73	-4	+1	+1	-3	+3	-0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	58	51	15	4	0	1	6	22	0	9	2	294	368	431	800	137	435	38	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	19	19	1	0	0	0	0	7	0	4	0	53	53	53	105		83	37	0	48	-82	-4	+1	-1	+5	+0	0.1
2023	26	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	414	371	85	12	4	9	34	106	4	28	6	229	301	356	657	127	285	26	8	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	52	46	9	3	0	0	4	13	1	3	0	196	275	261	535	65	273	25	8	246	53	-3	+1	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2024	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	241	223	49	15	0	6	14	78	1	18	4	220	269	368	637	148	299	32	6	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	34	31	4	2	0	0	1	9	1	5	0	129	182	194	375	65	174	26	3	171	2	-4	+1	-3	+1	+1	-0.3
2025	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	96	91	8	1	0	0	4	39	1	3	0	88	135	99	234	11	156	41	4	113	-37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	363	331	56	14	1	6	25	110	3	37	3	169	234	272	506	103	229	30	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	141	126	27	4	0	0	13	33	1	9	2	214	293	246	539	32	290	23	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	—	141	118	34	5	0	0	21	23	1	9	2	288	400	331	731	42	358	16	15	341	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	411	73	13	0	1	19	112	2	29	2	178	218	217	434	39	239	25	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	402	87	16	0	1	28	83	2	29	2	216	271	264	535	47	268	19	6	242	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	473	429	88	12	1	7	28	117	11	14	8	205	271	287	558	82	262	25	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	473	419	98	13	2	9	38	86	11	14	8	234	314	339	653	105	271	18	8	296	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	455	91	25	3	7	35	139	6	30	9	200	266	314	580	114	268	28	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	441	105	30	3	11	49	113	6	30	9	238	323	395	717	156	292	22	10	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL MLE	Adelaide Giants	—	77	72	21	2	0	1	2	16	0	3	0	292	311	361	672	69	345	21	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	INTL RAW	Adelaide Giants	—	77	72	21	2	0	1	2	16	0	3	0	292	311	361	672	69	345	21	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	251	228	55	8	2	1	18	58	1	9	5	241	300	307	607	66	312	23	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	251	224	58	9	2	1	22	52	1	9	5	259	328	330	658	71	326	21	9	297	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	242	222	55	11	1	2	17	83	1	22	6	248	304	333	637	86	384	34	7	289	82	-5	+2	+1	-3	+5	0.1
2022	25	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	242	217	58	11	2	2	22	73	1	22	6	267	338	364	702	97	392	30	9	316	82	-5	+2	+1	-3	+5	0.1
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	390	86	12	4	9	34	113	4	32	6	221	290	341	631	121	282	26	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	433	374	93	14	4	12	50	96	4	32	6	249	343	404	747	155	299	22	12	333	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	293	269	58	18	0	6	18	91	2	21	4	216	270	349	619	134	297	31	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	293	262	70	22	0	9	25	75	2	21	4	267	336	454	790	187	337	26	9	345	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	130	122	12	3	0	0	5	48	2	8	0	98	147	123	270	25	160	37	4	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	130	119	14	3	0	0	8	41	2	8	0	118	186	143	329	25	177	32	6	160	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	363	331	56	14	1	6	25	110	3	37	3	169	234	272	506	103	231	30	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	363	316	69	18	1	9	40	92	3	37	3	218	312	367	679	149	278	25	11	305	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	141	126	27	4	0	0	13	33	1	9	2	214	293	246	539	32	286	23	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	442	418	73	13	0	1	19	112	2	29	2	175	218	213	431	38	234	25	4	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	473	431	88	12	1	7	28	117	11	14	8	204	271	285	557	81	257	25	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	504	458	91	25	3	7	35	139	6	30	9	199	266	312	578	114	261	28	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	251	230	55	8	2	1	18	58	1	9	5	239	300	304	604	65	304	23	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	242	222	55	11	1	2	17	83	1	22	6	248	304	333	637	86	378	34	7	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	433	392	86	12	4	9	34	113	4	32	6	219	290	339	629	120	276	26	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	293	271	58	18	0	6	18	91	2	21	4	214	270	347	617	133	294	31	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	130	122	12	3	0	0	5	48	2	8	0	98	147	123	270	25	161	37	4	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	363	332	56	14	1	6	25	110	3	37	3	169	234	271	505	102	229	30	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	293	271	58	18	0	6	18	91	2	21	4	214	270	347	617	133	294	31	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	130	122	12	3	0	0	5	48	2	8	0	98	147	123	270	25	161	37	4	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	363	332	56	14	1	6	25	110	3	37	3	169	234	271	505	102	229	30	7	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ATL	10%	319	291	59	13	1	6	22	91	3	23	5	201	264	312	576	111	268	29	7	260	62	-14	+3	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	ATL	10%	21	20	4	1	0	0	1	6	0	2	0	201	264	312	576	111	268	29	5	260	62	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	27%	195	178	36	8	1	3	13	56	2	11	2	198	259	303	563	106	266	29	7	255	58	-10	+1	-4	+2	+4	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	27%	53	49	9	2	0	1	4	15	0	3	1	198	259	303	563	106	266	28	8	255	58	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	402	370	77	16	1	3	28	111	2	28	7	208	268	281	549	73	288	28	7	253	50	-20	+3	-1	+6	+9	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	125	26	2	5	45	179	3	45	11	209	268	284	552	75	288	28	7	253	50	-33	+5	-2	+10	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3753	3424	697	139	14	47	241	1036	37	240	50	204	263	294	557	90	274	28	6	242	50	-37	+6	-5	+10	+16	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	120	24	2	8	42	179	6	42	9	202	262	290	552	88	272	28	6	242	50	-32	+5	-5	+8	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 363 PAwOBA .296 → .227 (−69)K% 25.3% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.34%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	30.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.47%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.02%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.76%
Singles /BIP	18.30%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.953	×0.972	15.78%
Doubles /BIP	8.04%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.953	×0.972	6.18%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.953	×0.972	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	4.02%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.73%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .296 → .227; ISO .149 → .108; BABIP .278 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 96 PAwOBA .153 → .113 (−40)K% 33.3% → 41.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	40.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.29%	÷1.140	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.33%
HBP% /PA	1.04%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.96%
Singles /BIP	16.07%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.950	×0.982	14.40%
Doubles /BIP	1.79%	÷1.162	×0.830	×0.950	×0.982	1.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .153 → .113; ISO .011 → .007; BABIP .179 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 241 PAwOBA .361 → .280 (−81)K% 25.7% → 32.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.73%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	32.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.71%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.96%
HBP% /PA	0.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.39%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.977	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	19.23%
Doubles /BIP	12.34%	÷0.961	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	10.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.84%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.992	4.19%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .280; ISO .213 → .155; BABIP .351 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 414 PAwOBA .341 → .288 (−52)K% 21.5% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.50%	÷1.005	×1.200	—	—	25.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.84%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.22%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.91%
Singles /BIP	23.31%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.983	×1.003	22.07%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.933	×0.830	×0.983	×1.003	4.62%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷0.999	×0.970	×0.983	×1.003	1.44%
Home runs /BIP	4.51%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .341 → .288; ISO .163 → .130; BABIP .309 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 58 PAwOBA .389 → .319 (−70)K% 31.0% → 38.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.03%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	38.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.79%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.91%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	35.48%	÷1.054	×0.930	—	×1.018	31.87%
Doubles /BIP	12.90%	÷0.898	×0.830	—	×1.018	12.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.930	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×1.018	2.23%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .389 → .319; ISO .143 → .115; BABIP .484 → .435. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 143 PAwOBA .303 → .259 (−44)K% 20.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.28%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	24.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.39%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.64%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.68%
Singles /BIP	27.84%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	24.99%
Doubles /BIP	5.15%	÷0.952	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	4.41%
Triples /BIP	2.06%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×1.033	1.62%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .303 → .259; ISO .071 → .060; BABIP .337 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAReading Fightin Phils · 504 PAwOBA .312 → .258 (−54)K% 22.4% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.42%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.52%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.027	7.00%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.04%
Singles /BIP	18.60%	÷1.023	×0.970	×0.950	×1.027	17.20%
Doubles /BIP	9.15%	÷0.980	×0.860	×0.950	×1.027	7.83%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷0.959	×0.950	×0.950	×1.027	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	3.35%	÷1.182	×0.780	—	×1.027	2.27%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .312 → .258; ISO .156 → .121; BABIP .292 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Clearwater Threshers · 437 PAwOBA .299 → .248 (−51)K% 17.4% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷0.995	×1.420	—	—	24.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.78%	÷1.005	×0.750	—	×1.012	5.87%
HBP% /PA	2.06%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.94%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.950	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	21.48%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷1.028	×0.960	×0.950	×1.012	3.74%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	0.25%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷1.197	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.15%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 90, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .299 → .248; ISO .108 → .081; BABIP .280 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Al Weis'62-'71 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,763 PA	2.7	1,763	7	55	223*	283*	300*	+10	+9	-0.2	1.3
/162	664	3	21	+3.8	+3.5	-0.1	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.6	370	3	21	228	287	309	+4	+0	0.1	0.2
/162	664	6	37	+7.1	+0.5	0.3	pk7: 0
#4Luis Lopez'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,783 PA	2.7	1,783	22	10	231*	282*	333*	+11	-6	-1.8	-0.2
/162	664	8	4	+4.0	-2.2	-0.7	pk7: 2
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Enrique Wilson'97-'05 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	22	14	233*	276*	337*	+8	+1	-2.5	-1.4
/162	664	10	6	+3.4	+0.4	-1.1	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Williams (OGILVIE)	30	29	37	72	44	200/262/310	110	268	4	15	29%	7%	62	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Trent Durrington 2007 · MLB	31	47→43	38→40	59→60	43	223/275/304	81	286	6	35	24%	6%	64	-1.3	217/277/301	84	279	6	26	23%	7%	65	-1.2	201/270/253	52	258	2	33	21%	7%	49	-0.9
✕Esix Snead 2006 · AAA	30	46	37→30	63→65	50	217/292/290	73	265	4	44	19%	8%	68	-1.0	218/284/303	85	265	7	33	19%	8%	68	-1.0	199/258/236	37	236	3	46	16%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Terrance Gore 2019 · AAA	28	42	35→30	63→70	41	201/255/252	52	276	3	41	27%	6%	45	-2.7	208/282/290	82	312	5	43	32%	8%	65	-1.2	202/301/280	78	308	0	73	30%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Darren Ford 2016 · AAA	30	45→53	41→45	57→65	43	218/270/309	91	280	9	39	25%	6%	64	-1.3	218/270/298	80	283	6	24	24%	6%	61	-1.5	212/261/258	46	279	1	23	23%	6%	45	-1.9
✕Billy Hamilton 2023 · MLB	32	38→48	40	64→70	37	188/236/282	94	284	7	38	35%	6%	45	-2.7	198/263/300	102	298	9	26	34%	8%	60	-1.6	135/211/191	56	219	3	36	37%	8%	14	-0.9
✕Andrew Velazquez 2024 · MLB	30	41→51	44→50	60	41	204/263/320	116	294	12	34	34%	7%	64	-1.3	203/249/300	97	306	10	31	35%	6%	54	-2.0	199/241/282	83	298	9	34	35%	5%	44	-1.7
✕Todd Donovan 2009 · AAA	30	49→52	36→40	61→65	48	232/291/301	69	291	3	38	21%	7%	70	-0.9	224/300/306	82	289	5	31	22%	10%	75	-0.5	214/305/285	71	275	3	38	21%	11%	71	-0.6
✕Lane Adams 2019 · MLB	29	42→45	44→50	59→60	39	204/264/322	118	306	12	32	36%	7%	65	-1.2	200/265/339	139	316	16	17	39%	7%	70	-0.8	173/242/321	148	270	18	14	41%	7%	54	-1.2
✕Tyler Graham 2014 · AAA	30	47→54	39→40	60→65	45	225/290/311	86	287	6	33	23%	6%	72	-0.7	228/274/303	75	282	6	28	21%	5%	63	-1.3	230/270/276	46	284	3	38	19%	4%	52	-1.6
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2024 · AAA	29	41→49	44→45	55→60	44	203/288/317	114	282	12	28	31%	8%	74	-0.5	181/276/293	112	255	12	25	32%	9%	65	-1.2	127/237/219	92	178	10	29	32%	9%	33	-2.6
✕Dairon Blanco 2022 · AAA	29	45→50	44→45	58→70	41	222/275/342	120	289	12	32	27%	5%	74	-0.6	251/309/378	127	326	13	63	26%	6%	95	+0.9	263/323/391	128	344	13	90	26%	6%	101	+0.7
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2015 · AAA	28	43→50	40→45	60	42	209/258/305	96	268	6	32	24%	5%	58	-1.7	223/272/309	86	271	6	26	19%	5%	64	-1.3	225/286/341	117	286	11	26	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Ryan Strausborger 2017 · MLB	29	44→47	42→45	56→55	41	216/261/318	102	274	10	26	25%	5%	63	-1.4	212/277/316	104	306	10	17	32%	7%	69	-0.9	173/262/243	70	286	3	15	37%	9%	46	-0.6
✕Wynton Bernard 2022 · AAA	31	42→52	41→45	61→60	41	204/255/307	102	269	8	27	27%	6%	58	-1.7	240/286/363	123	293	11	32	21%	6%	82	-0.0	245/290/364	119	296	10	37	20%	5%	81	-0.1
✕Quintin Berry 2014 · MLB	29	46→56	37→40	63→65	47	218/290/293	75	295	5	38	26%	8%	68	-1.0	220/288/286	66	297	4	33	25%	8%	65	-1.2	221/288/272	51	300	3	37	25%	8%	60	-1.2
✕Rico Noel 2017 · AAA	28	43→53	36→30	59→65	41	203/261/266	63	285	4	37	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/249/298	95	295	9	23	33%	5%	53	-2.1	185/220/270	85	268	9	29	33%	3%	33	-0.9
✕Justin Christian 2010 · MLB	30	51→54	40→45	62→65	44	242/278/338	96	277	6	34	16%	4%	73	-0.6	247/297/362	115	278	9	29	14%	6%	86	+0.3	250/305/367	117	278	9	30	13%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Zach Davis 2022 · AAA	28	46→51	37→30	58→65	41	216/274/285	69	308	5	34	30%	6%	60	-1.6	217/286/287	70	322	4	41	31%	7%	65	-1.2	220/297/258	38	327	0	78	30%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Elliot Johnson 2014 · MLB	30	45→55	42→50	59→60	44	220/273/323	104	281	10	33	25%	7%	68	-1.0	204/263/314	110	270	9	17	26%	7%	63	-1.4	184/245/288	104	247	7	12	27%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Freddy Guzman 2011 · AAA	30	47→57	39→45	69→70	47	224/267/314	89	258	5	48	16%	6%	63	-1.4	245/295/352	107	291	8	54	18%	7%	83	+0.1	267/319/375	107	317	7	77	17%	7%	93	+0.5

Luke Williams

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps