Blake Perkins

LF Columbus Clippers

Age 30 S/R 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 2.255 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	MLBMIL	434	.240/.320/.332	6	23	86	1.4
2025	28	AAA/ROKMIL	56	.273/.429/.364	1	3	63	—	.203/.304/.287
2025	28	MLBMIL	171	.226/.298/.348	3	7	86	0.3
2026	29	AAACLE	160	.246/.395/.381	3	12	76	—	.199/.306/.294
2026	29	MLBMIL	101	.157/.250/.258	1	3	49	-0.8
2027PROJ45% MLB	30	MLBCLE	92	.217/.305/.326	2	5	81	-0.1
2028PROJ53% MLB	31	MLBCLE	101	.213/.300/.316	2	4	77	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.255First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$0.2M2029Ext$1M2030Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed81

Avg EV44

Bat Spd35

xwOBA24

Barrel%17

CompsBilly Hamilton (age 30) · Jonathan Davis (age 31) · Greg Allen (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8181vR 81

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .305 / .326

PA92

HR2

SB5

K%25

BB%11

BABIP282

ISO136

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.216

POWER40

Barrel%

173.9

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

3569.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

8128.7

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 631 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

210

421

—

wRC+

102

◀◀L

wOBA

319

264

◀◀L

ISO

107

091

◀L

BABIP

316

289

◀L

17.6%

30.4%

◀◀L

BB%

9.5%

9.0%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.255 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	—	185	166	35	5	2	1	13	36	1	4	5	211	272	283	555	72	254	19	7	248	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	33	25	5	0	0	0	5	6	0	0	1	200	333	200	533		263	18	15	243	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	572	482	123	27	4	8	72	118	5	31	8	255	358	378	735	122	318	21	13	328	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	596	485	115	22	1	3	92	134	6	29	9	237	365	305	671	68	317	22	15	311	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	122	110	24	2	2	2	9	30	2	4	1	218	289	327	617	109	278	25	7	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	352	288	65	11	4	6	52	79	2	18	7	226	348	354	702	128	286	22	15	314	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	280	238	48	8	1	7	40	81	1	9	2	202	319	332	651	130	273	29	14	300	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	114	86	21	4	1	3	17	26	5	4	0	244	398	419	817	174	295	23	15	353	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	283	243	60	14	2	12	37	66	1	17	2	247	349	469	818	222	287	23	13	359	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	168	143	31	7	0	4	23	46	0	5	2	217	325	350	675	133	290	27	14	306	95	-1	+0	+6	-4	+4	0.5
2023	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	182	156	48	14	2	4	24	39	0	5	2	308	400	500	900	192	383	21	13	393	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	434	383	92	13	2	6	42	108	3	23	5	240	320	332	652	91	313	25	10	295	86	-7	+3	+7	+2	+9	1.4
2025	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	171	155	35	6	2	3	15	47	1	7	2	226	298	348	647	123	305	27	9	293	86	-3	+1	+1	+1	+4	0.3
2025	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	34	26	5	1	0	1	8	13	0	2	1	192	382	346	729	154	333	38	24	343	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	22	18	7	0	0	0	4	4	0	1	1	389	500	389	889		500	18	18	415	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	101	89	14	6	0	1	10	22	1	3	1	157	250	258	508	101	197	22	10	236	49	-6	+0	-2	-3	+2	-0.8
2026	29	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	160	126	31	4	2	3	30	39	1	12	4	246	395	381	776	135	322	24	19	351	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	874	770	172	32	4	14	90	223	5	38	10	223	309	330	639	106	293	26	10	290	82	-18	+4	+12	-4	+19	1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	185	171	28	4	1	1	8	52	1	4	5	164	206	216	422	53	209	28	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	33	26	6	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	1	231	333	231	564		261	24	12	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	572	511	114	20	4	7	43	157	5	31	8	223	290	319	609	96	293	27	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	596	524	109	19	1	4	53	188	6	29	9	208	288	271	559	63	299	32	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	122	113	20	2	2	2	6	38	2	4	1	177	231	283	515	106	231	31	5	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	352	310	58	9	3	6	30	109	2	18	7	187	263	294	557	106	249	31	9	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	280	250	44	6	1	6	28	95	1	9	2	176	262	280	542	104	253	34	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	114	92	20	4	1	2	11	31	5	4	0	217	333	348	681	130	256	27	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	283	255	53	12	2	9	25	81	1	17	2	208	281	376	658	169	257	29	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	168	143	31	7	0	4	23	46	0	5	2	217	325	350	675	133	290	27	14	308	95	-1	+0	+6	-4	+4	0.5
2023	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	182	163	43	12	2	3	17	48	0	5	2	264	333	417	751	153	344	26	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	434	384	93	14	2	6	41	108	3	23	5	242	320	336	656	94	313	25	9	296	86	-7	+3	+7	+2	+9	1.4
2025	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	171	155	35	6	2	3	15	47	1	7	2	226	298	348	647	123	305	27	9	295	86	-3	+1	+1	+1	+4	0.3
2025	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	34	29	5	1	0	1	5	15	0	2	1	172	294	310	604	138	293	44	15	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	22	20	5	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	1	250	318	250	568		374	27	9	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	101	89	14	6	0	1	10	22	1	3	1	157	250	258	508	101	197	22	10	241	49	-6	+0	-2	-3	+2	-0.8
2026	29	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	160	136	27	3	2	2	20	47	1	12	4	199	306	294	600	96	275	29	12	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	185	171	28	4	1	1	8	52	1	4	5	164	206	216	422	53	220	28	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	GCL Nationals	—	185	166	35	5	2	1	13	36	1	4	5	211	272	283	555	72	254	19	7	248	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	33	26	6	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	1	231	333	231	564		333	24	12	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	33	25	5	0	0	0	5	6	0	0	1	200	333	200	533		263	18	15	243	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	572	511	114	20	4	7	43	157	5	31	8	223	290	319	609	96	303	27	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	572	482	123	27	4	8	72	118	5	31	8	255	358	378	735	122	318	21	13	328	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	596	524	109	19	1	4	53	188	6	29	9	208	288	271	559	63	312	32	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	596	485	115	22	1	3	92	134	6	29	9	237	365	305	671	68	317	22	15	311	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	474	423	77	10	5	8	36	148	4	22	8	182	253	286	539	104	255	31	8	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	474	398	89	13	6	8	61	109	4	22	8	224	333	347	679	123	284	23	13	305	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	280	250	44	6	1	6	28	95	1	9	2	176	262	280	542	104	255	34	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	280	238	48	8	1	7	40	81	1	9	2	202	319	332	651	130	273	29	14	300	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	347	72	15	3	11	36	112	6	21	2	207	293	363	656	156	265	28	9	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	397	329	81	18	3	15	54	92	6	21	2	246	362	456	818	210	289	23	14	358	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	306	74	19	2	7	40	94	0	10	4	242	329	386	715	144	324	27	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	350	299	79	21	2	8	47	85	0	10	4	264	364	428	792	164	341	24	13	352	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	434	384	93	14	2	6	41	108	3	23	5	242	320	336	656	94	315	25	9	296	86	-7	+3	+7	+2	+9	1.4
2024	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	434	383	92	13	2	6	42	108	3	23	5	240	320	332	652	91	313	25	10	295	86	-7	+3	+7	+2	+9	1.4
2025	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	227	203	44	7	2	3	23	68	1	10	4	217	300	315	615	99	311	30	10	287	80	-5	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.2
2025	28	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	227	199	47	7	2	4	27	64	1	10	4	236	330	352	682	116	328	28	12	312	80	-5	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.2
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	261	225	42	10	2	3	30	69	2	15	5	187	288	289	577	102	250	26	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	261	215	45	10	2	4	40	61	2	15	5	209	339	330	669	121	268	23	15	307	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Nationals	—	185	174	28	4	1	1	8	52	1	4	5	161	206	213	418	52	209	28	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	33	29	6	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	1	207	333	207	540		261	24	12	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	572	519	114	20	4	7	43	157	5	31	8	220	290	314	604	94	293	27	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	596	532	109	19	1	4	53	188	6	29	9	205	288	267	555	62	299	32	9	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	474	431	77	10	5	8	36	148	4	22	8	179	253	281	533	102	244	31	8	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	280	249	44	6	1	6	28	95	1	9	2	177	262	281	543	104	253	34	10	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	397	352	72	15	3	11	36	112	6	21	2	205	293	358	651	153	257	28	9	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	307	74	19	2	7	40	94	0	10	4	241	329	384	714	143	318	27	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	434	387	93	14	2	6	41	108	3	23	5	240	320	333	653	93	313	25	9	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	227	201	44	7	2	3	23	68	1	10	4	219	300	318	618	100	310	30	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	261	227	42	10	2	3	30	69	2	15	5	185	288	286	574	101	245	26	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	434	387	93	14	2	6	41	108	3	23	5	240	320	333	653	93	313	25	9	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	227	201	44	7	2	3	23	68	1	10	4	219	300	318	618	100	310	30	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	261	227	42	10	2	3	30	69	2	15	5	185	288	286	574	101	245	26	11	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CLE	45%	315	277	60	11	2	5	33	80	2	18	3	217	305	328	633	111	283	25	10	288	81	-7	+2	-1	-3	+7	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	CLE	45%	92	81	18	3	1	2	10	23	1	5	1	217	305	326	631	109	282	25	11	288	81	-2	+1	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CLE	53%	191	168	35	6	1	3	20	49	1	8	2	213	300	318	618	105	279	26	10	282	77	-5	+1	-3	-2	+4	-0.6
2028	31	MLB CTX	CLE	53%	101	89	19	3	1	2	10	26	1	4	1	213	300	316	616	104	279	26	10	282	77	-3	+0	-2	-1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	975	859	191	35	5	16	100	249	6	42	11	222	308	331	638	108	291	26	10	289	67	-21	+4	+11	-5	+21	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	127	23	3	11	67	166	4	28	7	222	308	330	638	108	289	26	10	289	67	-14	+3	+7	-4	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4205	3718	776	137	25	62	383	1200	32	194	57	209	288	309	597	100	286	29	9	268	67	-28	+6	+9	-8	+28	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	120	21	4	10	59	185	5	30	9	209	288	311	599	103	285	28	9	268	67	-14	+3	+5	-4	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 160 PAwOBA .350 → .280 (−70)K% 24.4% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.38%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	29.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	12.58%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.57%
Singles /BIP	25.29%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.966	×0.972	22.07%
Doubles /BIP	4.60%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.966	×0.972	3.58%
Triples /BIP	2.30%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.966	×0.972	2.09%
Home runs /BIP	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .350 → .280; ISO .135 → .108; BABIP .322 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 34 PAwOBA .336 → .251 (−85)K% 38.2% → 45.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.24%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	45.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	15.94%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.983	×0.930	—	×0.982	21.45%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.973	×0.830	—	×0.982	6.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .336 → .251; ISO .154 → .105; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 22 PAwOBA .405 → .278 (−127)K% 18.2% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷0.973	×1.440	—	—	26.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷1.011	×0.620	—	×0.940	10.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	50.00%	÷1.031	×0.820	—	×0.940	37.39%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.109	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.001	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .405 → .278; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .500 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANashville Sounds · 182 PAwOBA .388 → .326 (−62)K% 21.4% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	26.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.19%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.93%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.959	×1.003	22.46%
Doubles /BIP	11.97%	÷0.971	×0.830	×0.959	×1.003	9.83%
Triples /BIP	1.71%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.959	×1.003	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	3.42%	÷0.905	×0.700	—	×1.003	2.65%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .388 → .326; ISO .192 → .161; BABIP .383 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 283 PAwOBA .351 → .285 (−66)K% 23.3% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.32%	÷0.998	×1.220	—	—	28.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.72%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×0.988	8.94%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.30%
Singles /BIP	18.08%	÷0.983	×0.970	×0.963	×0.988	16.97%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷0.972	×0.860	×0.963	×0.988	6.66%
Triples /BIP	1.13%	÷0.969	×0.950	×0.963	×0.988	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	6.78%	÷1.032	×0.780	—	×0.988	5.06%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .351 → .285; ISO .222 → .174; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 114 PAwOBA .358 → .304 (−53)K% 22.8% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.81%	÷1.001	×1.200	—	—	27.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.91%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×1.018	9.83%
HBP% /PA	4.39%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	4.20%
Singles /BIP	21.67%	÷1.047	×0.930	×0.975	×1.018	19.09%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.975	×1.018	5.55%
Triples /BIP	1.67%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.975	×1.018	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.54%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .358 → .304; ISO .174 → .151; BABIP .295 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 280 PAwOBA .293 → .241 (−52)K% 28.9% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.93%	÷1.035	×1.220	—	—	34.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷0.988	×0.690	—	×0.998	9.95%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.30%
Singles /BIP	20.38%	÷0.980	×0.940	×1.018	×0.998	19.85%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷1.117	×0.870	×1.018	×0.998	4.03%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.018	×0.998	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	4.46%	÷0.957	×0.780	—	×0.998	3.63%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 107, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .293 → .241; ISO .130 → .104; BABIP .273 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 352 PAwOBA .310 → .244 (−66)K% 22.4% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.44%	÷1.024	×1.420	—	—	31.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.77%	÷1.102	×0.630	—	×0.998	8.43%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.860	—	×0.998	0.49%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.999	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	18.77%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.950	×0.998	4.17%
Triples /BIP	1.91%	÷0.921	×0.800	×0.950	×0.998	1.58%
Home runs /BIP	2.87%	÷0.884	×0.900	—	×0.998	2.92%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 100, 2B 99, 3B 84, K 105, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .310 → .244; ISO .128 → .118; BABIP .286 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#3Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#4Mike Felder'85-'94 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,497 PA	3.8	2,497	14	161	247*	300*	340*	-18	+17	0.9	2.8
/162	664	4	43	-4.9	+4.4	0.2	pk7: 5
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.6	1,068	17	48	222	305	329	-10	+16	0.1	0.1
/162	664	11	30	-6.2	+9.8	0.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Blake Perkins (OGILVIE)	30	45	40	60	60	215/303/325	110	283	3	12	25%	10%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Billy Hamilton 2021 · MLB	30	46→56	39→40	59→70	49	220/285/307	86	285	5	34	24%	8%	69	-0.9	195/248/294	99	291	8	34	33%	6%	52	-2.2	158/208/235	77	253	4	47	37%	6%	22	-1.0
✕Jonathan Davis 2023 · MLB	31	46→52	40→45	57→55	51	219/314/311	92	297	8	27	27%	10%	82	+0.0	218/293/335	117	304	10	17	29%	8%	79	-0.2	204/277/324	120	289	10	14	31%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→57	43→45	60→65	45	240/329/356	116	317	10	34	26%	7%	99	+1.2	217/305/332	115	286	9	35	26%	7%	84	+0.1	203/292/312	108	273	8	40	26%	6%	73	-0.2
✕Elliot Johnson 2014 · MLB	30	45→55	42→50	59→60	44	220/273/323	104	281	10	33	25%	7%	68	-1.0	204/263/314	110	270	9	17	26%	7%	63	-1.4	184/245/288	104	247	7	12	27%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Trent Durrington 2006 · MLB	30	51→43	41→40	58→60	47	243/304/344	101	305	8	36	22%	7%	84	+0.2	217/273/295	78	280	5	32	23%	6%	61	-1.5	202/256/260	57	263	3	36	23%	6%	45	-1.5
✕Tyler Graham 2014 · AAA	30	47→54	39→40	60→65	45	225/290/311	86	287	6	33	23%	6%	72	-0.7	228/274/303	75	282	6	28	21%	5%	63	-1.3	230/270/276	46	284	3	38	19%	4%	52	-1.6
✕Roman Quinn 2022 · MLB	29	47→57	45	61→65	44	224/301/353	129	315	11	31	31%	8%	86	+0.3	210/301/333	123	337	10	25	37%	10%	82	+0.0	178/281/285	107	312	8	34	40%	11%	63	-0.4
✕Andrew Velazquez 2024 · MLB	30	41→51	44→50	60	41	204/263/320	116	294	12	34	34%	7%	64	-1.3	203/249/300	97	306	10	31	35%	6%	54	-2.0	199/241/282	83	298	9	34	35%	5%	44	-1.7
✕Bryce Johnson 2024 · MLB	28	51→54	43→45	62→60	44	240/306/355	114	332	10	32	29%	8%	88	+0.4	238/310/342	104	325	7	28	27%	8%	86	+0.3	237/312/330	93	329	4	33	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Tommy Murphy 2009 · MLB	29	50→53	40→45	55→60	43	237/284/332	95	310	7	29	25%	6%	74	-0.6	218/275/310	92	291	7	25	26%	7%	66	-1.1	186/247/252	65	251	4	26	26%	7%	39	-1.6
✕Alexi Casilla 2014 · MLB	30	49→59	39→40	60	49	233/287/328	95	269	5	30	16%	7%	74	-0.5	235/276/317	82	277	6	18	17%	5%	67	-1.1	235/270/302	67	279	4	14	17%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Tyler Wade 2023 · MLB	28	45→55	40→45	57→60	50	216/289/307	92	274	8	35	23%	9%	71	-0.8	231/297/309	78	304	6	35	24%	8%	74	-0.5	232/301/293	61	309	4	40	24%	8%	70	-0.4
✕Delino DeShields 2022 · MLB	29	47→56	40→45	57→65	52	224/308/317	93	298	7	25	25%	10%	80	-0.1	207/297/276	69	300	5	29	29%	11%	68	-1.0	194/293/232	38	308	1	35	33%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Ian Miller 2021 · MLB	29	46→56	42→40	58→60	45	226/281/337	112	277	9	29	22%	6%	74	-0.5	228/280/319	91	288	7	21	22%	6%	70	-0.9	229/278/296	68	290	3	25	21%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Drew Jackson 2022 · AAA	29	43→45	44→45	57→55	47	207/298/326	118	301	12	28	33%	10%	80	-0.2	219/295/330	111	348	11	21	37%	9%	79	-0.2	199/271/267	68	355	8	20	42%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Dairon Blanco 2022 · AAA	29	45→50	44→45	58→70	41	222/275/342	120	289	12	32	27%	5%	74	-0.6	251/309/378	127	326	13	63	26%	6%	95	+0.9	263/323/391	128	344	13	90	26%	6%	101	+0.7
✕Sam Haggerty 2024 · MLB	30	52→43	47→50	65	51	253/329/405	151	309	13	37	22%	9%	108	+1.9	239/306/346	107	309	8	31	24%	8%	86	+0.3	222/285/300	78	299	5	30	25%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Gilberto Mejia 2014 · AAA	31	53→58	39→40	62→65	49	253/314/347	94	308	5	38	19%	8%	88	+0.5	252/302/344	92	306	5	39	18%	5%	83	+0.1	247/296/330	83	295	3	37	16%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2015 · MLB	30	52→62	39→40	59→65	46	246/295/334	88	306	5	34	21%	6%	78	-0.3	245/288/320	75	305	4	29	20%	6%	72	-0.7	246/284/302	56	305	2	33	19%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Freddy Guzman 2012 · AAA	31	47→57	41→45	61→70	46	228/274/331	102	268	8	35	18%	6%	70	-0.9	258/310/368	110	306	8	65	18%	7%	92	+0.7	253/306/339	85	307	5	74	18%	7%	81	-0.1

Blake Perkins

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps