Victor Robles — OGILVIE

Victor RoblesRF Seattle Mariners

INJURED · Injured 10-Day (D10)

Age 29 R/R 6'0" / 193 lbs MLB HR +3% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.8 · 2027

wRC+†vL 8195vR 134

AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .320 / .358

PA110

HR2

SB8

K%20

BB%7

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

45→45

SPD

55→55

EYE

42↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.4	$2M	-$4M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+0.8	$3M	-$6M
Totals		$14M		$5M	-$9M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	213	188	46	10	3	2	10	37	13	22	9	.245	.327	.362	.689	.117	.295	17	5	.295	84	-4	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2015	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	94	77	24	5	1	2	6	17	7	12	1	.312	.411	.481	.892	.169	.373	18	6	.343	121	+2	+2	+0	+0	+3	0.7
2016	19	A	3 teams	504	434	108	14	7	7	19	106	34	37	14	.249	.331	.362	.692	.113	.312	21	4	.293	83	-10	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.8
2017	20	A+	4 teams	577	515	127	34	9	8	27	138	24	34	11	.247	.314	.394	.709	.148	.320	24	5	.300	87	-8	+2	+0	-6	+16	0.5
2018	21	AAA	4 teams	385	346	86	16	3	6	28	67	7	25	10	.249	.318	.364	.682	.116	.290	17	7	.310	95	-2	+1	+2	+1	+11	1.3
2019	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	617	546	137	30	3	15	35	140	25	28	9	.251	.325	.399	.724	.148	.308	23	6	.313	98	-2	+2	+18	+2	+17	3.9
2020	23	MLB	2 teams	248	218	50	6	1	4	12	70	13	7	4	.229	.309	.321	.630	.092	.313	28	5	.278	71	-8	-0	+1	+1	+7	0.0
2021	24	MLB	2 teams	462	400	82	25	2	5	38	117	18	14	7	.205	.303	.315	.618	.110	.276	25	8	.276	70	-16	+0	+1	+2	+13	0.0
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	468	420	97	11	3	7	20	120	13	22	4	.231	.287	.321	.608	.090	.303	26	4	.260	57	-23	+3	+4	+2	+13	-0.1
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	152	130	38	6	1	0	13	22	5	8	1	.292	.378	.354	.732	.062	.352	14	9	.332	112	+2	+1	-4	+1	+4	0.4
2024	27	MLB	2 teams	318	275	84	21	0	4	23	61	11	35	2	.305	.382	.425	.807	.120	.376	19	7	.350	126	+9	+6	+0	+1	+9	2.6
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	146	135	33	6	1	2	3	37	6	8	3	.244	.292	.348	.640	.104	.316	25	2	.280	73	-4	+0	-2	-2	+4	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	SEA	110	98	25	5	1	2	7	22	4	8	2	.255	.330	.388	.718	.133	.300	20	6	.309	95	-1	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	SEA	302	269	66	13	1	5	20	62	10	20	5	.245	.321	.357	.678	.112	.299	21	7	.306	93	-3	+2	-2	+1	+9	0.7
2028	31	MLB	SEA	287	257	61	12	1	4	19	60	9	18	4	.237	.312	.339	.651	.101	.298	21	7	.302	90	-3	+2	-3	+1	+8	0.5
2029	32	MLB	SEA	268	239	57	11	1	4	18	57	9	16	3	.238	.316	.343	.659	.105	.296	21	7	.297	86	-4	+2	-3	+1	+8	0.3
2030	33	MLB	SEA	238	212	50	10	1	3	16	53	8	13	3	.236	.314	.335	.648	.099	.294	22	7	.291	81	-5	+1	-4	+1	+7	-0.0
2031	34	MLB	SEA	196	175	40	8	1	2	13	45	6	10	2	.229	.304	.320	.624	.091	.292	23	7	.285	76	-5	+1	-5	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5585	4934	1211	243	40	82	327	1231	222	337	94	.245	.321	.361	.682	.115	.309	22	6	.299	87	-84	+30	+3	+10	+158	11.9
/ 162G	—			650	574	141	28	5	10	38	143	26	39	11	.246	.321	.364	.685	.118	.308	22	6	.299	87	-10	+3	+0	+1	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	213	182	57	14	4	3	16	26	13	22	9	.313	.408	.484	.891	.170	.353	12	8	.394	160	+14	+1	—	—	+6	2.2
2015	18	ROK	GCL Nationals	94	73	27	6	1	2	10	12	7	12	1	.370	.489	.562	1.051	.192	.417	13	11	.446	199	+11	+2	—	—	+3	1.6
2016	19	A+	Potomac Nationals	198	168	44	8	2	3	14	32	11	18	5	.262	.358	.387	.744	.125	.304	16	7	.332	112	+3	+2	—	—	+6	1.0
2016	19	A	Hagerstown Suns	285	233	71	9	6	5	18	38	22	19	8	.305	.407	.459	.866	.155	.346	13	6	.374	144	+14	+1	—	—	+8	2.3
2016	19	ROK	GCL Nationals	21	20	3	0	0	1	0	7	1	0	1	.150	.190	.300	.490	.150	.167	33	0	.220	27	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2017	20	MLB	Washington Nationals	27	24	6	1	2	0	0	6	2	0	1	.250	.308	.458	.766	.208	.333	22	0	.322	105	+0	-0	+0	-6	+1	-0.6
2017	20	AA	Harrisburg Senators	158	139	45	12	1	3	12	22	4	11	3	.324	.394	.489	.883	.165	.368	14	8	.385	153	+9	+1	—	—	+4	1.5
2017	20	A+	Potomac Nationals	338	291	84	25	7	7	25	62	17	16	7	.289	.378	.495	.873	.206	.345	18	7	.381	149	+19	+0	—	—	+10	2.9
2017	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	54	41	10	1	0	3	10	9	1	7	0	.244	.404	.488	.892	.244	.226	17	19	.383	151	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.6
2018	21	MLB	Washington Nationals	66	59	17	3	1	3	4	12	2	3	2	.288	.354	.525	.879	.237	.311	18	6	.379	148	+4	-0	+2	+1	+2	0.8
2018	21	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	182	158	44	9	1	2	18	26	2	14	6	.278	.358	.386	.744	.108	.318	14	10	.331	112	+2	+0	—	—	+5	0.8
2018	21	ROK	GCL Nationals	27	18	6	1	0	0	7	4	2	4	1	.333	.556	.389	.944	.056	.429	15	26	.450	203	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2018	21	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	110	98	26	2	0	1	11	20	1	4	1	.265	.345	.316	.662	.051	.325	18	10	.308	94	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2019	22	MLB	Washington Nationals	617	546	139	33	3	17	35	140	25	28	9	.255	.328	.419	.748	.165	.310	23	6	.329	110	+7	+2	+18	+2	+17	4.8
2020	23	MLB	Washington Nationals	189	168	37	5	1	3	9	53	9	4	1	.220	.296	.315	.611	.095	.298	28	5	.278	71	-6	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.1
2020	23	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	59	47	11	2	0	2	6	8	4	3	3	.234	.368	.404	.773	.170	.237	14	10	.342	120	+1	-1	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	369	315	64	21	1	2	33	85	16	8	6	.203	.310	.295	.606	.092	.271	23	9	.281	73	-11	-1	+1	+2	+10	0.1
2021	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	93	83	25	8	1	4	7	26	2	6	1	.301	.370	.566	.936	.265	.396	28	8	.402	166	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.1
2022	25	MLB	Washington Nationals	407	366	82	10	2	6	17	104	9	15	4	.224	.276	.311	.587	.087	.292	26	4	.258	56	-20	+1	+4	+2	+12	-0.2
2022	25	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	61	54	11	0	0	1	3	14	4	7	0	.204	.295	.259	.554	.056	.256	23	5	.265	61	-3	+1	—	—	+2	0.0
2023	26	MLB	Washington Nationals	126	107	32	5	1	0	11	18	4	8	1	.299	.385	.364	.750	.065	.360	14	9	.335	114	+2	+1	-4	+1	+4	0.3
2023	26	INTL	Toros del Este	26	21	5	1	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	.238	.385	.286	.670	.048	.278	12	15	.324	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	295	254	78	20	0	4	21	53	11	34	2	.307	.385	.433	.818	.126	.370	18	7	.358	132	+11	+6	+0	+1	+8	2.7
2024	27	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	23	20	7	1	1	0	3	6	0	1	0	.350	.435	.500	.935	.150	.500	26	13	.414	175	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	114	106	26	4	1	1	3	26	3	6	2	.245	.286	.330	.616	.085	.309	23	3	.274	68	-4	+0	-2	-2	+3	-0.4
2025	28	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	32	29	9	3	0	1	0	9	3	2	1	.310	.375	.517	.892	.207	.421	28	0	.396	161	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2210	1945	481	102	12	36	133	497	81	106	28	.247	.322	.368	.690	.120	.311	22	6	.306	93	-18	+10	+20	+2	+63	7.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Victor Robles (OGILVIE)	29	50	45	55	40	.245/.320/.358	.113	.300	2	8	20%	7%	95	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jon Berti 2019 · MLB	29	50→59	43→45	63→60	45	.242/.303/.360	.118	.303	9	35	22%	6%	86	+0.8	.252/.332/.377	.125	.321	12	29	23%	9%	103	+1.9	.242/.340/.358	.116	.311	12	29	24%	11%	100	+0.7
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2015 · MLB	28	53→63	40→45	63→60	45	.255/.302/.355	.100	.310	7	39	20%	6%	84	+0.6	.254/.312/.354	.100	.315	10	24	21%	7%	89	+0.9	.257/.324/.357	.100	.321	11	15	22%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Eric Young Jr. 2014 · MLB	29	55→60	39→45	64→65	52	.260/.326/.358	.097	.311	5	41	17%	8%	95	+1.4	.232/.296/.315	.083	.285	4	40	19%	8%	72	-0.2	.242/.299/.354	.111	.303	9	24	22%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Tim Locastro 2020 · MLB	28	50→52	42→45	59→60	44	.240/.325/.355	.115	.286	9	28	19%	5%	96	+1.5	.227/.313/.349	.122	.273	11	25	20%	6%	90	+1.0	.211/.301/.325	.114	.266	11	36	23%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Eury Pérez 2019 · AAA	29	54→64	39→40	61→65	41	.255/.291/.347	.092	.311	5	35	19%	4%	77	+0.1	.256/.298/.360	.104	.310	8	17	19%	5%	84	+0.6	.310/.351/.408	.098	.374	4	7	17%	5%	112	+0.6
✕Todd Donovan 2008 · AAA	29	50→53	40	62→65	46	.238/.295/.330	.091	.292	6	40	20%	6%	75	-0.0	.233/.305/.310	.077	.303	4	36	22%	9%	74	-0.1	.234/.315/.302	.068	.308	3	42	23%	10%	74	-0.1
✕Justin Christian 2008 · AAA	28	52→57	41→45	65	45	.250/.293/.356	.106	.293	7	40	17%	5%	80	+0.4	.249/.290/.352	.103	.289	7	34	16%	5%	79	+0.3	.263/.319/.389	.125	.293	10	30	14%	6%	97	+1.3
✕Alex Sanchez 2006 · MLB	29	61	38→40	55→65	44	.289/.318/.374	.085	.332	5	34	15%	4%	95	+1.4	.258/.287/.357	.099	.292	10	16	15%	4%	78	+0.2	.286/.310/.375	.088	.310	8	20	10%	3%	90	+0.5
✕Eugenio Velez 2010 · MLB	28	54→60	42→50	60→65	44	.259/.298/.379	.120	.309	7	33	18%	5%	89	+0.9	.248/.290/.363	.115	.303	9	28	20%	5%	81	+0.4	.261/.314/.383	.122	.324	10	34	22%	6%	93	+1.0
●Dairon Blanco 2022 · AAA	29	44→52	45→50	58→70	39	.218/.272/.345	.127	.297	13	32	30%	6%	70	-0.3	.254/.312/.391	.137	.329	15	59	26%	6%	98	+1.6	.268/.330/.405	.137	.349	14	90	26%	6%	107	+1.1
✕Tyler Graham 2013 · AAA	29	53→54	37→40	62→65	44	.248/.301/.323	.075	.311	3	43	21%	5%	76	+0.0	.232/.283/.309	.077	.292	6	32	22%	5%	65	-0.7	.240/.280/.291	.051	.298	4	38	20%	4%	54	-1.1
✕Damian Jackson 2004 · MLB	30	52→54	40→45	55	49	.246/.308/.345	.099	.302	6	29	20%	8%	85	+0.7	.241/.313/.361	.120	.283	11	22	18%	9%	92	+1.2	.241/.328/.365	.124	.282	13	20	19%	10%	96	+0.6
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→56	44→45	60→65	45	.243/.333/.365	.121	.319	11	34	25%	7%	102	+1.8	.225/.314/.348	.123	.296	10	36	26%	7%	90	+1.0	.214/.305/.335	.121	.286	9	40	26%	7%	80	+0.1
✕Eric Patterson 2011 · MLB	28	48→56	46→50	65→60	45	.238/.293/.379	.142	.300	12	33	25%	7%	87	+0.8	.212/.274/.326	.114	.271	9	23	24%	8%	66	-0.6	.194/.262/.275	.081	.251	6	20	23%	8%	45	-0.8
●Scott Podsednik 2005 · MLB	29	55→65	44→45	66→65	54	.267/.334/.393	.126	.301	10	45	15%	9%	108	+2.3	.265/.329/.361	.096	.310	5	45	15%	8%	98	+1.6	.287/.340/.379	.092	.327	6	34	13%	7%	102	+1.5
✕Mallex Smith 2021 · MLB	28	51→61	41→45	65	48	.242/.310/.353	.111	.305	6	40	22%	8%	87	+0.8	.218/.292/.322	.104	.301	10	32	28%	9%	72	-0.2	.200/.285/.294	.094	.295	11	40	33%	10%	59	-0.2
✕Roger Cedeno 2004 · MLB	29	56→60	41→45	57→65	50	.267/.320/.372	.104	.308	8	28	16%	7%	96	+1.5	.245/.303/.352	.107	.288	9	13	17%	8%	84	+0.6	.260/.323/.368	.108	.313	8	13	18%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Jason Bourgeois 2012 · MLB	30	57→58	38→45	63→65	47	.270/.308/.350	.080	.300	5	43	12%	5%	85	+0.7	.249/.291/.326	.077	.278	5	28	12%	5%	72	-0.2	.253/.288/.335	.082	.287	5	14	14%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Rich Thompson 2007 · AAA	28	52→61	39→45	62→65	47	.244/.308/.338	.093	.296	5	34	18%	6%	83	+0.6	.247/.302/.344	.097	.303	5	26	19%	6%	82	+0.5	.266/.316/.370	.104	.324	4	44	18%	5%	90	+0.8
✕Everth Cabrera 2015 · MLB	28	53→59	38→40	60→65	49	.250/.309/.330	.080	.312	5	39	21%	8%	81	+0.4	.221/.274/.289	.068	.277	5	22	21%	6%	56	-1.3	.193/.245/.222	.029	.248	1	22	21%	6%	23	-1.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)