Maikel Garcia

3B Kansas City Royals

Age 27 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs MLB HR -15%K -8% Svc 3.977 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	24	MLBKC	626	.231/.284/.332	7	37	73	0.6
2025	25	INTLTiburones de …	45	.308/.400/.410	0	3	135	—
2025	25	MLBKC	666	.286/.354/.449	16	23	128	5.5
2026	26	MLBKC	344	.268/.336/.381	3	5	105	1.4
2027PROJ	27	MLBKC	383	.270/.338/.398	6	11	110	2.2
2028PROJ	28	MLBKC	614	.268/.336/.394	9	15	109	3.3
2029PROJ	29	MLBKC	601	.265/.333/.387	8	12	106	2.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 8.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service3.977First FA2030Options2

2027Ext$12M2028Ext$12M2029Ext$12M2030Ext$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV72

xwOBA60

Bat Spd57

Speed52

Barrel%22

Form.275/.363/.399 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .272/.338/.404

CompsAustin Barnes (age 27) · Maicer Izturis (age 27) · Eric Campbell (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 116110vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .338 / .398

PA383

HR6

SB11

K%14

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO130

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

xAVG

710.268

POWER40

Barrel%

224.6

Avg EV

7290.6

Bat Spd

5772.1

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

5227.6

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%12%▲▲9% over 35 PA (60d) · proj 14%

BB%12%▲▲23% over 35 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.124·.074 over 27 AB (60d) · proj .132

BABIP.305·.292 over 24 BIP (60d) · proj .306

SLASH.275/.363/.399▲proj .272/.338/.404

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1402 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

319

1083

—

wRC+

118

◀◀L

wOBA

343

305

◀L

ISO

176

119

◀◀L

BABIP

305

287

◀L

13.2%

15.2%

◀L

BB%

9.1%

7.9%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.977 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2030

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$12M	+2.4	$19M	+$8M
2028	Ext	$12M	+3.3	$29M	+$19M
2029	Ext	$12M	+2.9	$22M	+$13M
2030	Ext	$12M	+2.5	$16M	+$8M
Totals		$46M		$86M	+$47M

Options · projected decision
2031	CLUB OPT	$11.5M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2032	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $3.2M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	17	ROK	DSL Royals	—	173	157	35	1	1	0	12	13	0	9	3	223	278	242	520	19	241	8	7	238	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	AZL Royals	—	217	185	41	5	1	0	23	45	1	20	6	222	311	259	570	38	293	21	11	260	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	60	51	16	3	1	0	8	12	0	0	1	314	407	412	819	98	410	20	13	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	243	217	61	8	4	3	24	40	0	11	3	281	353	396	749	115	331	16	10	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	237	195	59	13	3	1	38	33	0	24	3	303	416	415	832	113	352	14	16	372	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	124	110	39	5	1	0	11	18	0	4	2	355	413	418	831	64	419	15	9	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	23	22	7	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	318	348	364	711	45	412	22	4	322	106	+0	+0	+0	+9	+0	1.0
2022	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	186	164	45	10	0	7	17	42	1	12	5	274	346	463	810	189	322	23	9	351	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	369	323	94	24	1	4	41	60	0	27	3	291	371	409	780	118	345	16	11	347	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	250	201	65	13	5	4	46	31	0	10	2	323	449	498	947	174	361	12	18	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	515	464	126	20	4	4	38	115	2	23	7	272	329	358	687	86	344	22	7	305	94	-4	+2	+12	+3	+11	2.4
2023	23	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	112	95	23	7	0	1	16	22	0	4	3	242	351	347	699	105	301	20	14	320	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	129	99	42	9	0	2	28	9	0	5	0	424	551	576	1.127	152	444	7	22	491	218	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	626	575	133	27	5	7	42	103	0	37	2	231	284	332	616	101	268	16	7	274	73	-20	+7	+3	+2	+14	0.6
2025	25	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	666	595	170	39	5	16	62	84	1	23	9	286	354	449	803	163	308	13	9	353	128	+22	+1	+14	+3	+14	5.5
2025	25	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	45	39	12	4	0	0	6	3	0	3	1	308	400	410	810	103	333	7	13	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	344	310	83	20	3	3	32	50	0	5	4	268	336	381	717	113	309	15	9	322	105	+2	-1	+4	+1	+7	1.4
2026	26	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	16	13	4	1	0	0	3	2	0	1	0	308	438	385	822	77	364	12	19	381	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2174	1966	519	107	17	30	175	357	3	88	22	264	325	381	707	117	305	16	8	314	98	-4	+9	+32	+18	+47	10.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	—	173	160	26	1	1	0	9	16	0	9	3	163	207	181	388	19	171	9	5	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	217	193	35	4	1	0	15	65	1	20	6	181	244	212	456	31	253	30	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	243	223	53	7	3	2	18	53	0	11	3	238	295	323	617	85	301	22	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	237	208	54	11	3	1	25	46	0	24	3	260	339	356	695	96	313	19	11	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	23	22	7	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	318	348	364	711	45	412	22	4	324	106	+0	+0	+0	+9	+0	1.0
2022	22	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	186	169	42	9	0	5	12	53	1	12	5	249	302	391	693	142	305	28	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	369	334	89	21	1	4	30	74	0	27	3	266	327	371	698	105	325	20	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	515	464	127	20	4	4	38	115	2	23	7	274	331	360	691	86	344	22	7	307	94	-4	+2	+12	+3	+11	2.4
2023	23	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	112	100	24	7	0	1	11	27	0	4	3	240	315	340	655	100	302	24	10	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	626	575	135	27	5	8	42	103	0	37	2	235	287	341	628	106	268	16	7	277	73	-20	+7	+3	+2	+14	0.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	666	595	172	39	5	17	62	84	1	23	9	289	357	457	814	168	308	13	9	358	128	+22	+1	+14	+3	+14	5.5
2026	26	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	344	310	83	20	3	3	32	50	0	5	4	268	336	381	717	113	309	15	9	324	105	+2	-1	+4	+1	+7	1.4
2026	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	16	14	4	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	286	375	357	732	71	323	12	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	—	173	160	26	1	1	0	9	16	0	9	3	163	207	181	388	19	179	9	5	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals	—	173	157	35	1	1	0	12	13	0	9	3	223	278	242	520	19	241	8	7	238	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	217	193	35	4	1	0	15	65	1	20	6	181	244	212	456	31	273	30	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	—	217	185	41	5	1	0	23	45	1	20	6	222	311	259	570	38	293	21	11	260	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL MLE	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	60	51	16	3	1	0	8	12	0	0	1	314	407	412	819	98	410	20	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	20	INTL RAW	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	60	51	16	3	1	0	8	12	0	0	1	314	407	412	819	98	410	20	13	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	604	541	135	23	8	4	54	125	0	39	8	250	318	344	661	94	313	21	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	604	522	159	26	8	4	73	91	0	39	8	305	390	408	798	103	358	15	12	356	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	828	754	198	44	2	13	61	189	1	49	10	263	319	378	697	115	330	23	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA RAW	4 teams	—	828	710	211	48	6	15	105	138	1	49	10	297	388	445	834	148	347	17	13	368	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	756	681	181	32	5	6	59	171	2	32	10	266	326	354	680	88	338	23	8	303	91	-8	+2	+12	+3	+16	2.6
2023	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	756	658	191	36	4	7	82	146	2	32	10	290	371	389	760	99	355	19	11	339	91	-8	+2	+12	+3	+16	2.6
2024	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	626	575	135	27	5	8	42	103	0	37	2	235	287	341	628	106	271	16	7	277	73	-20	+7	+3	+2	+14	0.6
2024	24	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	626	575	133	27	5	7	42	103	0	37	2	231	284	332	616	101	268	16	7	274	73	-20	+7	+3	+2	+14	0.6
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	711	636	183	42	5	18	66	90	1	26	10	288	356	454	810	167	310	13	9	358	128	+24	+1	+14	+3	+15	5.8
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	711	634	182	43	5	16	68	87	1	26	10	287	357	446	803	159	310	12	10	354	128	+24	+1	+14	+3	+15	5.8
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	324	87	21	3	3	34	52	0	6	4	269	338	380	718	111	310	14	9	323	105	+2	-0	+4	+1	+8	1.5
2026	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	360	323	87	21	3	3	35	52	0	6	4	269	341	381	722	111	311	14	10	324	105	+2	-0	+4	+1	+8	1.5
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals	—	173	162	26	1	1	0	9	16	0	9	3	160	207	179	386	19	171	9	5	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	—	217	199	35	4	1	0	15	65	1	20	6	176	244	206	450	30	253	30	7	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	604	545	135	23	8	4	54	125	0	39	8	248	318	341	659	94	307	21	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	828	760	198	44	2	13	61	189	1	49	10	261	319	375	694	114	322	23	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	756	689	181	32	5	6	59	171	2	32	10	263	326	350	676	87	336	23	8	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	626	579	135	27	5	8	42	103	0	37	2	233	287	339	625	105	268	16	7	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	711	638	183	42	5	18	66	90	1	26	10	287	356	453	809	166	308	13	9	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	323	87	21	3	3	34	52	0	6	4	269	338	381	719	111	310	14	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	626	579	135	27	5	8	42	103	0	37	2	233	287	339	625	105	268	16	7	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	711	638	183	42	5	18	66	90	1	26	10	287	356	453	809	166	308	13	9	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	323	87	21	3	3	34	52	0	6	4	269	338	381	719	111	310	14	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	100%	470	423	116	26	4	8	43	68	1	13	3	272	340	404	744	132	306	14	9	331	110	+6	+1	+8	+2	+10	2.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	100%	383	345	93	21	3	6	35	55	0	11	3	270	338	398	736	129	304	14	9	328	110	+5	+1	+6	+1	+8	2.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	KC	100%	614	552	150	33	5	10	56	90	1	15	4	270	338	399	737	129	305	15	9	329	109	+6	+1	+9	+2	+13	3.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	KC	100%	601	541	144	32	4	9	55	89	0	12	3	267	335	392	727	125	303	15	9	325	106	+4	+1	+8	+2	+13	2.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	KC	100%	578	521	138	31	4	8	52	88	0	9	3	264	331	384	715	120	301	15	9	320	102	+2	+1	+7	+2	+13	2.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	KC	100%	558	503	131	29	4	7	50	87	0	4	2	259	326	373	698	114	298	16	9	313	98	-1	+0	+6	+2	+12	1.9
2032	32	MLB MLE	KC	100%	543	490	123	27	3	6	48	87	0	1	1	252	319	358	677	106	293	16	9	304	92	-5	-0	+5	+2	+12	1.4
2033	33	MLB MLE	KC	100%	268	243	60	13	2	3	23	45	0	0	1	244	310	341	650	97	286	17	9	294	85	-5	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	KC	100%	614	552	148	33	5	9	56	90	1	15	4	268	336	394	730	126	303	15	9	326	109	+6	+1	+9	+2	+13	3.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	KC	100%	601	541	143	32	5	8	55	89	0	12	3	265	333	387	720	122	302	15	9	322	106	+4	+1	+8	+2	+13	2.9
2030	30	MLB CTX	KC	100%	578	521	136	31	4	7	52	88	0	9	3	261	329	379	708	117	299	15	9	317	102	+2	+1	+7	+2	+13	2.5
2031	31	MLB CTX	KC	100%	558	498	130	29	4	7	50	87	5	4	2	259	333	372	704	113	300	16	9	317	98	-1	+0	+6	+2	+12	1.9
2032	32	MLB CTX	KC	100%	543	485	123	27	4	6	48	87	5	1	1	253	326	358	683	105	295	16	9	308	92	-5	-0	+5	+2	+12	1.4
2033	33	MLB CTX	KC	100%	268	241	59	13	2	2	23	45	2	0	1	244	317	340	658	96	288	17	9	298	85	-5	-0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5336	4804	1258	272	41	69	459	843	16	129	36	262	328	379	707	117	303	16	9	315	92	-3	+11	+68	+29	+116	22.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	153	33	5	8	56	103	2	16	4	262	328	376	704	115	303	16	9	315	92	-0	+1	+8	+4	+14	2.7
Career	—	MLE		—	7880	7110	1836	383	56	101	667	1364	6	270	71	258	322	370	693	112	304	17	8	305	92	+1	+12	+75	+30	+124	24.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	152	32	5	8	55	113	0	22	6	259	322	372	694	113	306	17	8	305	92	+0	+1	+8	+3	+14	2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 16 PAwOBA .372 → .313 (−59)K% 12.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.988	12.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.988	24.79%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×0.988	7.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .372 → .313; ISO .077 → .067; BABIP .364 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 112 PAwOBA .315 → .284 (−31)K% 19.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.64%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.55%	÷0.978	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	21.54%
Doubles /BIP	9.59%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	8.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.37%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×1.050	1.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .315 → .284; ISO .105 → .094; BABIP .301 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 369 PAwOBA .340 → .305 (−36)K% 16.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.26%	÷0.988	×1.220	—	—	20.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷0.993	×0.700	—	×1.042	8.16%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.71%	÷0.995	×0.920	×1.004	×1.042	23.90%
Doubles /BIP	9.13%	÷1.009	×0.840	×1.004	×1.042	7.95%
Triples /BIP	0.38%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.004	×1.042	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	1.52%	÷0.905	×0.800	—	×1.042	1.40%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .340 → .305; ISO .118 → .106; BABIP .345 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 186 PAwOBA .345 → .297 (−49)K% 22.6% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷0.957	×1.200	—	—	28.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.60%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.22%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.53%
Singles /BIP	22.95%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.034	×1.050	22.83%
Doubles /BIP	8.20%	÷1.041	×0.830	×1.034	×1.050	7.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.034	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.74%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.29%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .345 → .297; ISO .189 → .147; BABIP .322 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 243 PAwOBA .328 → .278 (−50)K% 16.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.46%	÷1.013	×1.350	—	—	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×1.027	7.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.99%	÷1.059	×0.910	×1.040	×1.027	23.85%
Doubles /BIP	4.52%	÷0.991	×0.830	×1.040	×1.027	4.04%
Triples /BIP	2.26%	÷0.988	×0.820	×1.040	×1.027	2.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷1.013	×0.830	—	×1.027	1.43%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 112, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .328 → .278; ISO .115 → .098; BABIP .331 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AColumbia Fireflies · 237 PAwOBA .368 → .307 (−61)K% 13.9% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.92%	÷0.974	×1.360	—	—	19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.61%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.015	10.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.017	×0.920	×0.982	×1.015	23.39%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷0.960	×0.830	×0.982	×1.015	6.92%
Triples /BIP	1.85%	÷1.055	×0.910	×0.982	×1.015	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	0.62%	÷1.237	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.41%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 103, 2B 92, 3B 111, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .368 → .307; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .352 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKAZL Royals · 217 PAwOBA .254 → .198 (−56)K% 20.7% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.74%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	29.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.60%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	6.72%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.34%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×1.022	22.01%
Doubles /BIP	3.57%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.022	2.76%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.050	×1.022	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .254 → .198; ISO .038 → .029; BABIP .293 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 DSLDSL Royals · 173 PAwOBA .233 → .169 (−64)K% 7.5% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.51%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	9.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.94%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.022	4.96%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.023	×1.022	16.31%
Doubles /BIP	0.69%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.023	×1.022	0.44%
Triples /BIP	0.69%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.023	×1.022	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .233 → .169; ISO .019 → .012; BABIP .241 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mark Ellislast yr '14 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,728 PA	8.6	5,728	105	82	262	327	384	+17	+88	27.9	25.4
/162	664	12	10	+1.9	+10.2	3.2	pk7: 23
#2Tim Andersonlast yr '25 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,139 PA	6.2	4,139	98	122	276	307	407	+44	+48	21.6	22.0
/162	664	16	20	+7.0	+7.7	3.5	pk7: 22
#3Gene Alley'63-'73 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,332 PA	6.5	4,332	55	63	254*	314*	386*	+42	+84	22.6	21.9
/162	664	8	10	+6.4	+12.9	3.5	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	8.6	5,696	78	139	263	324	382	+20	+79	18.4	17.1
/162	664	9	16	+2.4	+9.3	2.1	pk7: 16
#4Ivan de Jesus'74-'88 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,193 PA	7.8	5,193	21	194	248*	320*	350*	+55	+68	16.1	16.8
/162	664	3	25	+7.0	+8.7	2.1	pk7: 18
#5Ted Sizemore'69-'80 * career totals — 11 seasons, 5,648 PA	8.5	5,648	23	59	258*	321*	347*	+22	+57	13.0	14.1
/162	664	3	7	+2.5	+6.7	1.5	pk7: 15
#6José Perazalast yr '21 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,134 PA	3.2	2,134	35	76	266	307	373	+14	+31	8.6	8.6
/162	664	11	24	+4.5	+9.7	2.7	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Maikel Garcia (OGILVIE)	27	60	40	55	60	270/338/400	131	306	6	11	14%	9%	110	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→55	44→50	55→50	51	248/314/373	125	286	10	17	17%	8%	95	+1.0	240/329/378	138	294	13	12	21%	10%	103	+1.5	228/331/374	146	281	15	8	23%	11%	105	+0.8
●Maicer Izturis 2008 · MLB	27	58→60	42→45	51→55	56	276/340/391	115	299	8	15	11%	9%	108	+1.9	272/334/389	117	293	9	16	10%	8%	106	+1.8	276/337/395	119	303	8	15	11%	7%	109	+1.3
✕Eric Campbell 2014 · AAA	27	53→56	42→45	48→50	54	254/337/368	114	311	9	11	20%	10%	103	+1.6	254/336/370	116	315	10	13	21%	10%	103	+1.5	249/333/356	107	309	9	12	21%	10%	97	+0.7
✕Jose Aguilar 2016 · AAA	26	58→64	42→45	52→55	49	281/340/395	114	315	9	16	14%	6%	109	+2.0	252/309/355	103	295	8	19	17%	6%	89	+0.5	253/313/346	93	304	6	23	18%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Amed Rosario 2023 · MLB	27	57→64	45→50	57→55	43	279/313/407	129	326	11	14	18%	4%	102	+1.5	273/309/396	123	327	9	16	19%	5%	98	+1.2	273/309/393	120	328	8	16	19%	4%	98	+0.7
●Edgar Renteria 2003 · MLB	27	57→67	45	51→55	53	276/331/404	128	295	12	19	11%	7%	108	+1.9	291/341/418	127	316	11	20	11%	7%	115	+2.4	294/357/422	128	332	11	12	14%	9%	123	+3.1
✕Antonio Lamas 2017 · AAA	27	56→63	46→45	46→50	49	276/337/406	130	314	13	13	16%	7%	112	+2.2	271/318/385	114	299	12	12	13%	6%	99	+1.3	276/314/372	96	301	10	8	12%	4%	92	+0.4
●Agustin Murillo 2009 · AAA	27	56→62	43→45	51→55	46	271/319/381	110	312	10	17	17%	6%	99	+1.2	256/314/361	105	297	8	14	16%	7%	92	+0.7	266/326/392	127	287	14	27	13%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Jake Elmore 2014 · MLB	27	55→64	39→40	52→55	53	260/331/354	94	303	5	21	16%	9%	97	+1.1	240/312/308	68	286	4	16	16%	9%	80	-0.2	234/313/276	42	280	2	17	16%	9%	72	-0.4
●Elvis Andrus 2017 · MLB	28	56→61	41→50	53→60	52	267/323/373	106	297	7	23	13%	7%	98	+1.2	271/319/405	134	304	12	19	15%	6%	104	+1.6	268/313/397	129	300	12	21	15%	6%	98	+1.2
✕David Fletcher 2021 · MLB	27	61→62	41→45	48→50	54	291/344/401	111	316	7	8	11%	8%	112	+2.2	264/303/344	80	287	5	10	9%	5%	83	+0.1	262/298/331	70	282	4	9	9%	4%	77	-0.3
✕Tike Redman 2004 · MLB	27	59	44→45	52→55	50	283/330/420	136	303	9	15	10%	6%	111	+2.1	264/302/361	97	283	7	15	9%	5%	86	+0.3	278/330/372	94	305	4	22	10%	7%	98	+0.9
●Ha-Seong Kim 2023 · MLB	27	49→53	46→50	53→60	51	242/312/381	139	282	13	12	19%	8%	97	+1.1	245/329/379	134	286	14	25	18%	11%	103	+1.5	240/330/365	125	279	14	31	18%	11%	100	+1.0
●Kolten Wong 2018 · MLB	27	54→58	45→50	53→55	51	261/334/394	132	295	11	12	15%	8%	107	+1.9	260/334/392	132	293	12	15	15%	8%	107	+1.9	272/342/411	139	310	13	20	16%	7%	116	+1.7
✕Matt Duffy 2018 · MLB	27	54→64	44→45	50	48	265/315/387	122	298	11	12	16%	6%	98	+1.2	267/339/361	94	317	7	10	17%	9%	101	+1.4	278/351/361	83	335	6	11	17%	8%	107	+1.1
●Julio Lugo 2003 · MLB	27	53→62	45	48→60	49	258/318/382	124	308	13	15	20%	8%	99	+1.2	269/331/394	125	313	11	18	17%	8%	106	+1.8	279/345/398	119	317	8	28	14%	8%	113	+2.3
●Tony Kemp 2019 · MLB	27	57→62	42→45	55	52	274/330/381	107	305	8	21	13%	7%	102	+1.5	249/330/378	129	279	12	15	15%	10%	103	+1.5	248/339/357	110	274	9	12	13%	10%	102	+0.9
✕Lorenzo Buelna 2007 · AAA	27	58→65	43→45	47→45	47	278/327/403	125	317	9	10	15%	6%	106	+1.8	275/320/362	87	319	6	8	15%	5%	94	+0.9	282/324/350	69	326	4	8	14%	4%	90	+0.5
✕Enrique Osorio 2012 · AAA	27	55	44→45	45→50	53	267/337/388	121	304	11	12	16%	8%	107	+1.8	254/307/362	108	288	10	12	15%	6%	90	+0.6	260/302/355	95	291	8	17	13%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Albino Contreras 2007 · AAA	27	57→60	42→50	51→55	50	273/336/399	126	321	7	15	17%	7%	109	+2.0	268/328/395	127	311	10	14	16%	7%	105	+1.7	280/341/407	127	320	11	13	15%	7%	108	+0.7

Maikel Garcia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps