Austin Barnes

C Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 37 R/R 5'9" / 187 lbs MLB HR +8%BB -8% Svc 12.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	33	MLBLAD	200	.180/.259/.242	2	2	47	-0.2
2024	34	MLBLAD	156	.264/.331/.307	1	3	87	0.7
2025	35	AAASF	37	.212/.297/.212	0	0	15	—	.176/.243/.176
2025	35	MLBLAD	44	.214/.233/.286	0	0	44	-0.1
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBLAD	86	.210/.278/.285	1	1	63	-0.0
2028PROJ	38	MLBLAD	80	.200/.265/.262	0	0	54	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA17

Speed12

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

CompsAlberto Castillo (age 37) · Arnoldo Castro (age 37) · Pedro Mere (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6863vR 50

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .278 / .285

PA86

HR1

K%22

BB%8

BABIP266

ISO76

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

110.219

POWER35

Barrel%

102.6

Avg EV

1085.0

Bat Spd

1066.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED35

Sprint

1225.6

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 193 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

150

—

wRC+

144

◀◀L

wOBA

380

247

◀◀L

ISO

053

044

◀◀L

BABIP

438

312

◀◀L

14.0%

28.7%

◀◀L

BB%

9.3%

7.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 12.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$-0.4M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	22	A	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	566	478	152	36	3	12	59	61	9	9	2	318	403	481	884	163	343	11	10	380	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	74	62	21	2	2	1	12	10	0	0	0	339	446	484	930	145	392	14	16	415	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	417	350	91	15	1	4	52	59	10	5	2	260	371	343	714	83	298	14	12	329	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA	Jacksonville Suns	—	348	284	84	20	2	12	50	36	6	8	0	296	412	507	919	211	299	10	14	398	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	200	180	57	11	2	1	19	25	1	3	3	317	385	417	802	100	364	12	10	362	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	37	29	6	2	0	0	6	6	1	1	0	207	361	276	637	69	261	16	16	300	96	-0	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.7
2015	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	335	292	92	17	2	9	35	36	3	12	2	315	394	479	873	164	331	11	10	383	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	37	32	5	1	0	0	5	9	0	0	0	156	270	188	458	31	217	24	14	227	44	-2	+0	-0	+8	+1	0.6
2016	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	385	336	99	22	5	6	43	53	4	18	3	295	381	443	825	149	335	14	11	367	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	218	63	15	2	8	39	43	5	4	1	289	408	486	895	197	329	16	15	399	161	+19	+0	+14	+5	+6	4.4
2018	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	238	200	41	5	0	4	31	67	6	4	3	205	329	290	619	85	287	28	13	293	80	-6	-0	+14	+4	+5	1.7
2019	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	242	212	43	12	1	5	23	56	5	3	0	203	296	340	635	137	248	23	10	288	80	-6	+1	+9	+6	+5	1.6
2019	29	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	104	87	23	6	0	6	14	20	2	1	1	264	379	540	919	276	274	19	13	398	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	104	86	21	3	0	1	13	24	2	3	0	244	356	314	670	70	323	23	12	306	98	-0	+1	+5	+2	+2	1.0
2021	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	225	200	43	8	0	6	20	56	4	1	0	215	299	345	644	130	268	25	9	293	85	-4	+0	+6	+4	+5	1.1
2022	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	212	179	38	6	0	8	27	37	3	2	1	212	325	380	705	168	222	17	13	317	103	+1	+0	+7	+4	+5	1.7
2023	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	200	178	32	5	0	2	17	43	2	2	1	180	259	242	500	62	222	22	8	233	47	-13	+0	+3	+4	+4	-0.2
2024	34	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	140	37	3	0	1	14	36	0	3	0	264	331	307	638	43	350	23	9	292	87	-2	+1	+3	+3	+3	0.7
2025	35	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	44	42	9	3	0	0	1	14	0	0	0	214	233	286	518	71	321	32	2	227	44	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2025	35	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	37	33	7	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	212	297	212	509		259	16	11	247	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1757	1516	338	63	3	35	196	391	28	23	6	223	323	338	661	115	276	22	11	302	90	-20	+2	+59	+47	+38	12.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	566	496	136	32	3	7	41	90	9	9	2	274	341	393	734	119	305	16	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	74	66	21	2	2	1	8	12	0	0	0	318	392	455	846	136	376	16	11	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	417	362	79	13	1	4	40	82	10	5	2	218	313	293	606	75	262	20	10	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	Jacksonville Suns	—	348	300	81	21	2	10	34	44	6	8	0	270	356	453	809	183	271	13	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	200	187	49	10	2	1	12	37	1	3	3	262	310	353	663	91	324	18	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	37	29	6	2	0	0	6	6	1	1	0	207	361	276	637	69	261	16	16	310	96	-0	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.7
2015	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	335	305	85	15	2	8	22	47	3	12	2	279	333	420	753	141	299	14	7	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	37	32	5	1	0	0	5	9	0	0	0	156	270	188	458	31	217	24	14	234	44	-2	+0	-0	+8	+1	0.6
2016	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	385	350	85	18	4	5	29	70	4	18	3	243	308	360	668	117	286	18	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	219	64	16	2	8	38	43	5	4	1	292	408	493	902	201	329	16	15	406	161	+19	+0	+14	+5	+6	4.4
2018	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	238	204	41	5	0	4	27	67	6	4	3	201	312	284	597	83	287	28	11	286	80	-6	-0	+14	+4	+5	1.7
2019	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	242	215	44	13	1	5	20	56	5	3	0	205	287	344	632	140	248	23	8	286	80	-6	+1	+9	+6	+5	1.6
2019	29	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	104	91	17	4	0	4	10	25	2	1	1	187	282	363	644	176	206	24	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	104	86	21	3	0	1	13	24	2	3	0	244	356	314	670	70	323	23	12	313	98	-0	+1	+5	+2	+2	1.0
2021	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	225	201	43	8	0	6	19	56	4	1	0	214	295	343	638	129	268	25	8	294	85	-4	+0	+6	+4	+5	1.1
2022	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	212	179	38	6	0	8	27	37	3	2	1	212	325	380	705	168	222	17	13	320	103	+1	+0	+7	+4	+5	1.7
2023	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	200	178	32	5	0	2	17	43	2	2	1	180	259	242	500	62	222	22	8	237	47	-13	+0	+3	+4	+4	-0.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	140	37	3	0	1	14	36	0	3	0	264	331	307	638	43	350	23	9	298	87	-2	+1	+3	+3	+3	0.7
2025	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	44	42	9	3	0	0	1	14	0	0	0	214	233	286	518	71	321	32	2	234	44	-3	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2025	35	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	37	34	6	0	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	176	243	176	420		220	19	8	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	566	496	136	32	3	7	41	90	9	9	2	274	341	393	734	119	321	16	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	A RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	566	478	152	36	3	12	59	61	9	9	2	318	403	481	884	163	343	11	10	380	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	491	428	99	15	3	4	48	94	10	5	2	231	323	308	631	77	284	19	10	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	491	412	112	17	3	5	64	69	10	5	2	272	383	364	747	92	312	14	13	342	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	548	487	129	31	3	11	46	81	7	11	3	265	337	409	746	144	295	15	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	548	464	141	31	4	13	69	61	7	11	3	304	402	472	874	168	324	11	13	385	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	372	334	91	17	2	8	28	53	4	13	2	272	336	407	743	135	300	14	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	372	321	98	19	2	9	41	42	4	13	2	305	391	461	852	156	325	11	11	375	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	422	382	90	19	4	5	34	79	4	18	3	236	305	346	650	110	284	19	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	422	368	104	23	5	6	48	62	4	18	3	283	371	421	793	139	326	15	11	355	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	219	64	16	2	8	38	43	5	4	1	292	408	493	902	201	333	16	15	406	161	+19	+0	+14	+5	+6	4.4
2017	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	218	63	15	2	8	39	43	5	4	1	289	408	486	895	197	329	16	15	399	161	+19	+0	+14	+5	+6	4.4
2018	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	238	204	41	5	0	4	27	67	6	4	3	201	312	284	597	83	278	28	11	286	80	-6	-0	+14	+4	+5	1.7
2018	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	238	200	41	5	0	4	31	67	6	4	3	205	329	290	619	85	287	28	13	293	80	-6	-0	+14	+4	+5	1.7
2019	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	346	306	61	17	1	9	30	81	7	4	1	199	286	350	635	150	237	23	9	287	80	-8	+0	+9	+6	+7	1.5
2019	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	346	299	66	18	1	11	37	76	7	4	1	221	321	398	719	177	256	22	11	321	80	-8	+0	+9	+6	+7	1.5
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	104	86	21	3	0	1	13	24	2	3	0	244	356	314	670	70	323	23	12	313	98	-0	+1	+5	+2	+2	1.0
2020	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	104	86	21	3	0	1	13	24	2	3	0	244	356	314	670	70	323	23	12	306	98	-0	+1	+5	+2	+2	1.0
2021	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	225	201	43	8	0	6	19	56	4	1	0	214	295	343	638	129	266	25	8	294	85	-4	+0	+6	+4	+5	1.1
2021	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	225	200	43	8	0	6	20	56	4	1	0	215	299	345	644	130	268	25	9	293	85	-4	+0	+6	+4	+5	1.1
2022	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	212	179	38	6	0	8	27	37	3	2	1	212	325	380	705	168	222	17	13	320	103	+1	+0	+7	+4	+5	1.7
2022	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	212	179	38	6	0	8	27	37	3	2	1	212	325	380	705	168	222	17	13	317	103	+1	+0	+7	+4	+5	1.7
2023	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	200	178	32	5	0	2	17	43	2	2	1	180	259	242	500	62	222	22	8	237	47	-13	+0	+3	+4	+4	-0.2
2023	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	200	178	32	5	0	2	17	43	2	2	1	180	259	242	500	62	222	22	8	233	47	-13	+0	+3	+4	+4	-0.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	140	37	3	0	1	14	36	0	3	0	264	331	307	638	43	350	23	9	298	87	-2	+1	+3	+3	+3	0.7
2024	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	140	37	3	0	1	14	36	0	3	0	264	331	307	638	43	350	23	9	292	87	-2	+1	+3	+3	+3	0.7
2025	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	81	76	15	3	0	0	4	21	0	0	0	197	237	237	474	39	273	26	5	214	31	-7	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.4
2025	35	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	81	75	16	3	0	0	5	20	0	0	0	213	263	253	516	40	291	25	6	236	31	-7	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.4
2012	22	A MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	566	511	136	32	3	7	41	90	9	9	2	266	341	382	722	115	305	16	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	491	430	99	15	3	4	48	94	10	5	2	230	323	307	630	77	279	19	10	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	548	490	129	31	3	11	46	81	7	11	3	263	337	406	743	143	290	15	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	372	337	91	17	2	8	28	53	4	13	2	270	336	404	740	134	295	14	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	422	381	90	19	4	5	34	79	4	18	3	236	305	346	651	110	280	19	8	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	262	217	64	16	2	8	38	43	5	4	1	295	408	498	906	203	329	16	15	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	238	203	41	5	0	4	27	67	6	4	3	202	312	286	598	84	287	28	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	346	306	61	17	1	9	30	81	7	4	1	199	286	350	635	150	236	23	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	104	88	21	3	0	1	13	24	2	3	0	239	356	307	663	68	323	23	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	225	200	43	8	0	6	19	56	4	1	0	215	295	345	640	130	268	25	8	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	212	180	38	6	0	8	27	37	3	2	1	211	325	378	703	167	222	17	13	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	200	179	32	5	0	2	17	43	2	2	1	179	259	240	499	61	222	22	8	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	141	37	3	0	1	14	36	0	3	0	262	331	305	636	43	350	23	9	298	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	81	77	15	3	0	0	4	21	0	0	0	195	237	234	471	39	275	26	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	156	141	37	3	0	1	14	36	0	3	0	262	331	305	636	43	350	23	9	298	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	35	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	81	77	15	3	0	0	4	21	0	0	0	195	237	234	471	39	275	26	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	37	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	138	125	27	5	1	1	11	30	1	2	1	215	282	292	573	77	272	22	8	262	63	-6	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	37	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	86	79	16	3	0	1	7	19	0	1	0	210	278	285	562	74	266	22	8	258	63	-4	+0	-0	+2	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	LAD	100%	80	74	14	3	0	0	6	18	0	0	0	204	269	269	538	65	263	22	8	247	54	-4	+0	-8	+1	+2	-0.9
2028	38	MLB CTX	LAD	100%	80	74	14	3	0	0	6	18	0	0	0	200	265	262	527	62	257	22	8	243	54	-4	+0	-8	+1	+2	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1837	1590	352	66	3	35	202	409	28	23	6	221	320	333	652	111	275	22	11	299	91	-24	+2	+51	+48	+40	11.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	124	23	1	12	71	145	10	8	2	220	318	329	647	108	275	22	11	299	91	-9	+1	+18	+17	+14	4.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4389	3869	927	186	18	75	399	842	63	80	19	240	321	355	676	116	286	19	9	303	91	-28	+2	+51	+50	+42	11.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	138	28	3	11	59	125	9	12	3	241	321	358	679	117	288	19	9	303	91	-10	+1	+17	+17	+14	4.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 37 PAwOBA .241 → .191 (−50)K% 16.2% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.22%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	19.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.94%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.030	×0.930	—	×0.940	22.01%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .241 → .191; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .259 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 104 PAwOBA .391 → .289 (−102)K% 19.2% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷1.014	×1.290	—	—	24.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.46%	÷0.993	×0.710	—	×0.972	9.35%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	1.83%
Singles /BIP	16.42%	÷1.048	×0.900	×0.950	×0.972	13.02%
Doubles /BIP	8.96%	÷1.012	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	6.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.96%	÷1.073	×0.780	—	×0.972	6.33%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 109, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .391 → .289; ISO .276 → .197; BABIP .274 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 385 PAwOBA .359 → .291 (−68)K% 13.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.77%	÷0.972	×1.290	—	—	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.17%	÷1.059	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.51%
HBP% /PA	1.04%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	1.02%
Singles /BIP	23.32%	÷1.017	×0.900	×0.990	×1.003	20.49%
Doubles /BIP	7.77%	÷0.975	×0.810	×0.990	×1.003	6.41%
Triples /BIP	1.77%	÷1.104	×0.810	×0.990	×1.003	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	2.12%	÷0.947	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.75%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 95, 3B 121, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .359 → .291; ISO .149 → .119; BABIP .335 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 335 PAwOBA .377 → .331 (−45)K% 10.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.75%	÷0.984	×1.290	—	—	14.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.15%	÷1.095	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.70%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.89%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.028	×0.900	×1.026	×1.018	22.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.64%	÷0.965	×0.810	×1.026	×1.018	5.83%
Triples /BIP	0.78%	÷0.941	×0.810	×1.026	×1.018	0.70%
Home runs /BIP	3.52%	÷0.866	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.22%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .377 → .331; ISO .164 → .152; BABIP .331 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAJacksonville Suns · 348 PAwOBA .393 → .345 (−48)K% 10.3% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.34%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	12.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.37%	÷0.995	×0.680	—	×0.998	9.80%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	1.45%
Singles /BIP	20.16%	÷1.012	×0.920	×0.994	×0.998	18.19%
Doubles /BIP	8.06%	÷0.940	×0.910	×0.994	×0.998	7.74%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷1.064	×0.880	×0.994	×0.998	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	4.84%	÷1.006	×0.800	—	×0.998	3.84%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 113, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .393 → .345; ISO .211 → .192; BABIP .299 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 200 PAwOBA .351 → .292 (−59)K% 12.5% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.951	×1.420	—	—	18.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.00%	÷1.079	×0.750	—	×0.978	6.12%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.930	—	×0.978	0.45%
Singles /BIP	27.74%	÷1.013	×0.920	×0.981	×0.978	24.17%
Doubles /BIP	7.10%	÷0.944	×0.960	×0.981	×0.978	6.92%
Triples /BIP	1.29%	÷0.914	×0.810	×0.981	×0.978	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	0.65%	÷0.983	×0.880	—	×0.978	0.56%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 103, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 90, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .351 → .292; ISO .100 → .090; BABIP .364 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 417 PAwOBA .325 → .274 (−51)K% 14.1% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.15%	÷1.019	×1.420	—	—	19.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.47%	÷0.970	×0.750	—	×0.988	9.53%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	2.20%
Singles /BIP	24.40%	÷1.029	×0.920	×0.995	×0.988	21.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.15%	÷1.073	×0.960	×0.995	×0.988	4.53%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.995	×0.988	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	1.37%	÷0.942	×0.880	—	×0.988	1.27%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .325 → .274; ISO .083 → .073; BABIP .298 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAJacksonville Suns · 74 PAwOBA .405 → .362 (−43)K% 13.5% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.51%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	16.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.22%	÷0.980	×0.680	—	×1.012	11.39%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.77%	÷0.986	×0.920	×1.037	×1.012	30.15%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.029	×0.910	×1.037	×1.012	3.57%
Triples /BIP	3.85%	÷1.082	×0.880	×1.037	×1.012	3.28%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷1.036	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.50%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 116, K 105, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .405 → .362; ISO .145 → .127; BABIP .392 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Chad Kreuter'88-'03 * career totals — 13 seasons, 2,932 PA	4.4	2,932	54	5	228*	323*	354*	+50	+0	9.3	9.5
/162	664	12	1	+11.4	+0.1	2.1	pk7: 10
#4Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	2.7	1,805	36	24	224	318	339	+29	+53	6.0	6.4
/162	664	13	9	+10.6	+19.6	2.2	pk7: 7
#5Glenn Borgmann'72-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,526 PA	2.3	1,526	16	4	229*	328*	338*	+27	+0	4.5	4.4
/162	664	7	2	+11.8	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 4
#6Tom Satriano'61-'70 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,865 PA	2.8	1,865	21	7	233*	323*	333*	+15	-2	3.7	4.2
/162	664	7	2	+5.3	-0.6	1.3	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Barnes (OGILVIE)	37	45	35	35	60	213/279/289	76	272	1	1	22%	8%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alberto Castillo 2007 · MLB	37	48	37→30	41→30	52	225/293/304	79	273	4	5	18%	9%	71	-0.8	230/291/326	96	279	8	5	19%	8%	76	-0.4	223/290/293	70	267	8	0	18%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Arnoldo Castro 2006 · AAA	37	48	39→30	37→40	46	231/273/310	78	266	7	4	16%	5%	65	-1.2	228/271/298	70	254	5	7	12%	5%	61	-1.5	228/264/248	20	241	0	2	5%	4%	43	-1.1
✕Pedro Mere 2008 · AAA	38	48→46	39→40	38→40	47	227/272/313	85	251	7	5	13%	5%	65	-1.2	220/277/298	78	261	5	5	17%	6%	64	-1.3	211/274/272	61	255	3	2	18%	6%	55	-1.1
✕Doug Bernier 2017 · AAA	37	46→52	40	42→45	44	223/276/313	90	281	9	7	24%	6%	67	-1.1	214/268/306	92	282	9	7	26%	6%	63	-1.4	186/236/233	47	249	5	0	26%	5%	31	-1.6
✕Remigio Diaz 2006 · AAA	38	49→50	37→30	39→45	48	228/273/300	71	254	5	5	13%	5%	62	-1.4	232/271/297	65	255	4	7	11%	4%	61	-1.5	236/271/282	46	257	2	6	9%	4%	54	-1.1
✕Adan Amezcua 2011 · AAA	37	46	40→45	41→45	47	221/271/311	90	257	7	6	17%	6%	65	-1.2	237/297/353	116	280	11	6	19%	6%	84	+0.2	244/310/369	125	285	12	4	18%	7%	91	+0.3
✕Hector Hurtado 2008 · AAA	37	46	42→40	41→30	38	226/266/322	96	282	10	3	24%	3%	65	-1.2	213/251/291	78	270	7	4	23%	3%	52	-2.2	206/236/255	49	259	4	0	22%	2%	34	-1.0
✕Jamie Burke 2010 · MLB	38	46→45	40→45	42→30	46	224/274/315	91	262	8	5	18%	6%	67	-1.1	216/274/319	103	267	9	8	22%	6%	68	-1.0	190/247/252	62	241	3	4	21%	5%	41	-0.7
✕Erick Rodriguez 2017 · AAA	37	46	36→40	35→40	43	213/236/275	63	238	4	3	13%	3%	42	-2.9	239/271/316	77	268	7	5	13%	4%	65	-1.2	265/296/345	80	291	9	1	12%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Jesus Rivera 2016 · AAA	38	47→52	37→40	42→40	48	221/279/291	71	264	5	4	18%	7%	63	-1.3	248/291/319	71	291	4	7	16%	5%	74	-0.6	269/304/327	57	312	2	5	14%	4%	78	-0.1
✕Octavio Sandoval 2010 · AAA	37	50	38→40	43→45	43	236/262/320	83	264	5	7	13%	3%	62	-1.4	213/251/296	83	248	5	9	16%	4%	53	-2.1	190/224/240	50	221	1	4	14%	3%	27	-1.5
✕Hector Estrada 2006 · AAA	37	43	41→40	43→40	45	209/258/302	93	246	9	5	19%	6%	58	-1.7	210/262/310	100	243	10	7	18%	6%	61	-1.5	185/232/258	73	199	8	3	12%	4%	36	-0.8
✕John McDonald 2012 · MLB	37	47	45→40	40→50	46	232/271/354	121	249	12	7	13%	5%	74	-0.5	218/267/326	108	245	12	6	16%	6%	67	-1.1	206/247/305	99	227	13	2	16%	4%	55	-0.5
✕Daniel Nunez 2019 · AAA	37	48→49	36→30	44→50	47	226/284/288	62	269	4	11	17%	6%	64	-1.3	210/271/300	90	282	7	12	27%	7%	63	-1.4	149/212/183	34	215	0	9	29%	6%	12	-1.0
✕Paul Bako 2008 · MLB	36	46	38→45	42→40	46	217/283/287	70	297	6	4	28%	8%	64	-1.3	226/291/333	107	297	11	4	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/287/322	100	290	11	0	26%	8%	73	-0.3
✕Wil Nieves 2014 · MLB	36	52→56	40	42→40	42	251/281/337	86	296	8	4	18%	4%	74	-0.6	239/281/335	96	301	8	6	22%	5%	74	-0.6	240/265/325	85	312	4	4	24%	1%	65	-0.3
✕Juan Castro 2009 · MLB	37	45	40→50	44→40	47	215/261/307	92	245	8	4	16%	6%	60	-1.6	227/275/311	84	275	7	5	19%	6%	65	-1.2	227/267/274	47	281	2	0	19%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Francisco Valdez 2007 · AAA	38	48	41→40	38→30	42	235/275/328	92	261	10	5	15%	3%	70	-0.8	249/291/338	89	277	7	5	12%	4%	78	-0.3	260/300/341	82	286	4	1	10%	3%	79	-0.1
✕Hector Guizar 2006 · AAA	36	47	39→30	38→30	45	223/259/304	82	248	6	5	14%	4%	58	-1.7	219/257/301	82	238	7	5	11%	4%	57	-1.8	211/242/265	54	223	5	0	8%	3%	40	-1.7
✕Oscar Fentanes 2007 · AAA	37	48	37→30	46→45	46	225/277/290	65	253	6	5	14%	5%	62	-1.4	226/278/295	69	268	4	7	17%	4%	64	-1.3	227/279/284	57	272	2	5	16%	4%	60	-0.6

Austin Barnes

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps