Jake Elmore

PosSS

B/TR/R

Born1987-06-15

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	31	AAACWS	394	.289/.400/.359	1	11	79	—	.252/.331/.309
2019	32	AAAPIT	414	.322/.391/.455	6	3	90	—	.264/.311/.373
2019	32	MLBPIT	49	.213/.245/.234	0	0	35	-1.0
2021	34	AAAPHI	51	.225/.392/.275	0	1	56	—	.205/.314/.250
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2019

Speed27

xwOBA16

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	21	ROK	Missoula Osprey	—	216	179	53	15	3	3	26	36	4	9	8	296	397	464	861	168	347	17	12	372	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	457	387	100	21	3	3	61	55	5	13	7	258	366	351	718	93	293	12	13	329	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	462	388	108	16	2	2	58	56	4	25	13	278	378	345	723	67	316	12	13	327	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	458	381	103	19	1	3	54	65	7	15	11	270	371	349	720	79	309	14	12	322	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	73	68	13	4	0	0	5	6	0	0	0	191	247	250	497	59	210	8	7	230	37	-5	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.1
2012	25	AAA	Reno Aces	—	511	419	144	30	9	1	74	54	5	32	8	344	448	465	913	122	386	11	14	400	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	136	120	29	4	0	2	13	20	0	1	6	242	316	325	641	83	273	15	10	288	80	-3	-2	-4	+5	+3	-0.1
2013	26	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	310	268	80	13	4	5	31	37	7	16	6	299	386	433	818	134	328	12	10	364	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	315	267	75	17	0	0	42	41	1	12	4	281	381	345	725	64	326	13	13	331	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	158	141	29	5	0	2	12	25	0	1	1	206	268	284	552	78	231	16	8	246	49	-10	-0	-4	-7	+3	-1.8
2015	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	240	198	49	4	0	0	38	30	3	4	4	247	377	268	644	20	292	12	16	311	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	99	78	17	2	0	0	17	17	2	2	3	218	371	244	615	26	279	17	17	298	85	-2	-1	-3	-3	+2	-0.7
2016	29	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	182	150	48	3	0	2	26	19	3	13	4	320	430	380	810	60	354	10	14	370	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	416	360	85	9	2	1	44	59	5	12	8	236	328	281	608	44	276	14	11	282	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	394	329	95	18	1	1	55	58	6	11	2	289	400	359	759	70	344	15	14	349	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	49	47	10	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	1	213	245	234	479	21	256	16	4	221	35	-4	-0	-2	-5	+1	-1.0
2019	32	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	367	118	31	0	6	37	55	5	3	8	322	391	455	846	134	361	13	9	375	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	51	40	9	2	0	0	10	6	1	1	1	225	392	275	667	50	265	12	20	326	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	515	454	98	16	0	4	49	76	2	4	11	216	295	278	573	62	249	15	10	262	64	-22	-4	-14	-4	+11	-3.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	216	190	41	11	2	2	15	52	4	9	8	216	287	326	613	111	266	24	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	457	406	92	18	3	2	42	75	5	13	7	227	307	300	607	74	266	16	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	462	406	112	17	2	1	40	69	4	25	13	276	347	335	682	59	313	15	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	458	396	97	18	1	2	39	80	7	15	11	245	324	311	634	66	279	17	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	73	68	13	4	0	0	5	6	0	0	0	191	247	250	497	59	210	8	7	223	37	-5	+0	-1	+6	+2	0.1
2012	25	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	511	441	141	24	9	1	52	73	5	32	8	320	398	422	819	102	364	14	10	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	136	120	29	4	0	2	13	20	0	1	6	242	316	325	641	83	273	15	10	286	80	-3	-2	-4	+5	+3	-0.1
2013	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	310	277	70	10	3	4	22	51	7	16	6	253	324	354	677	101	291	16	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	315	281	73	14	0	0	28	53	1	12	4	260	329	310	639	50	306	17	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	158	142	29	5	0	2	11	25	0	1	1	204	261	282	543	77	231	16	7	241	49	-10	-0	-4	-7	+3	-1.8
2015	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	240	213	46	3	0	0	23	35	3	4	4	216	301	230	531	14	258	15	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	99	79	17	2	0	0	16	17	2	2	3	215	361	241	601	25	279	17	16	293	85	-2	-1	-3	-3	+2	-0.7
2016	29	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	182	160	44	2	0	2	16	25	3	13	4	275	352	325	677	50	309	14	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	416	374	75	8	2	1	30	78	5	12	8	201	269	241	510	40	240	19	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	394	349	88	15	1	1	35	71	6	11	2	252	331	309	640	57	303	18	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	49	47	10	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	1	213	245	234	479	21	256	16	4	221	35	-4	-0	-2	-5	+1	-1.0
2019	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	414	383	101	27	0	5	21	65	5	3	8	264	311	373	684	110	297	16	5	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	51	44	9	2	0	0	6	7	1	1	1	205	314	250	564	45	225	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	216	190	41	11	2	2	15	52	4	9	8	216	287	326	613	111	279	24	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	ROK RAW	Missoula Osprey	—	216	179	53	15	3	3	26	36	4	9	8	296	397	464	861	168	347	17	12	372	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	457	406	92	18	3	2	42	75	5	13	7	227	307	300	607	74	272	16	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A RAW	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	457	387	100	21	3	3	61	55	5	13	7	258	366	351	718	93	293	12	13	329	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	462	406	112	17	2	1	40	69	4	25	13	276	347	335	682	59	326	15	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AA RAW	Mobile BayBears	—	462	388	108	16	2	2	58	56	4	25	13	278	378	345	723	67	316	12	13	327	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	458	396	97	18	1	2	39	80	7	15	11	245	324	311	634	66	292	17	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA RAW	Mobile BayBears	—	458	381	103	19	1	3	54	65	7	15	11	270	371	349	720	79	309	14	12	322	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	584	509	154	28	9	1	57	79	5	32	8	303	378	399	777	96	352	14	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	584	487	157	34	9	1	79	60	5	32	8	322	422	435	857	113	361	10	14	379	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	446	397	99	14	3	6	35	71	7	17	12	249	321	345	666	96	287	16	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	446	388	109	17	4	7	44	57	7	17	12	281	364	399	764	119	311	13	10	341	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	315	281	73	14	0	0	28	53	1	12	4	260	329	310	639	50	315	17	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	315	267	75	17	0	0	42	41	1	12	4	281	381	345	725	64	326	13	13	331	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	398	355	75	8	0	2	34	60	3	5	5	211	286	251	536	39	247	15	9	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	398	339	78	9	0	2	50	55	3	5	5	230	334	274	609	44	267	14	13	285	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	281	239	61	4	0	2	32	42	5	15	7	255	355	297	652	42	301	15	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	281	228	65	5	0	2	43	36	5	15	7	285	409	333	743	48	330	13	15	344	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	416	374	75	8	2	1	30	78	5	12	8	201	269	241	510	40	247	19	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA RAW	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	416	360	85	9	2	1	44	59	5	12	8	236	328	281	608	44	276	14	11	282	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	394	349	88	15	1	1	35	71	6	11	2	252	331	309	640	57	311	18	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	394	329	95	18	1	1	55	58	6	11	2	289	400	359	759	70	344	15	14	349	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	430	111	28	0	5	23	73	5	3	9	258	303	358	662	100	298	16	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	463	414	128	32	0	6	39	63	5	3	9	309	376	430	805	121	350	14	8	358	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	51	44	9	2	0	0	6	7	1	1	1	205	314	250	564	45	243	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	51	40	9	2	0	0	10	6	1	1	1	225	392	275	667	50	265	12	20	326	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	ROK MLE	Missoula Osprey	—	216	195	41	11	2	2	15	52	4	9	8	210	287	318	605	108	266	24	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	457	407	92	18	3	2	42	75	5	13	7	226	307	300	607	74	266	16	9	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	462	415	112	17	2	1	40	69	4	25	13	270	347	328	674	58	313	15	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	458	409	97	18	1	2	39	80	7	15	11	237	324	301	624	64	279	17	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	584	517	154	28	9	1	57	79	5	32	8	298	378	393	771	95	345	14	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	446	401	99	14	3	6	35	71	7	17	12	247	321	342	663	95	285	16	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	315	283	73	14	0	0	28	53	1	12	4	258	329	307	636	49	306	17	9	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	398	358	75	8	0	2	34	60	3	5	5	209	286	249	534	39	247	15	9	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	281	242	61	4	0	2	32	42	5	15	7	252	355	293	648	41	298	15	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	New Orleans Baby Cakes	—	416	378	75	8	2	1	30	78	5	12	8	198	269	238	507	40	240	19	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	394	350	88	15	1	1	35	71	6	11	2	251	331	309	639	57	303	18	9	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	432	111	28	0	5	23	73	5	3	9	257	303	356	660	100	293	16	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	51	44	9	2	0	0	6	7	1	1	1	205	314	250	564	45	225	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	515	454	98	16	0	4	49	76	2	4	11	216	295	278	573	62	249	15	10	262	80	-22	-4	-14	-4	+11	-3.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	123	20	0	5	62	96	3	5	14	215	295	276	571	61	247	15	10	262	80	-28	-5	-18	-5	+14	-4.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4941	4376	1087	185	23	25	416	810	58	170	95	248	322	318	640	70	296	16	8	286	80	-22	-4	-14	-4	+11	-3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	142	24	3	3	55	107	8	22	12	247	321	314	636	68	294	16	8	286	80	-28	-5	-18	-5	+14	-4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 51 PAwOBA .319 → .251 (−68)K% 11.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷0.992	×1.200	—	—	14.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.61%	÷1.061	×0.690	—	×0.940	11.98%
HBP% /PA	1.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.73%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.016	×0.930	—	×0.940	17.71%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.952	×0.830	—	×0.940	4.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .319 → .251; ISO .050 → .044; BABIP .265 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 414 PAwOBA .364 → .301 (−63)K% 13.3% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.29%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.73%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.03%
HBP% /PA	1.21%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.08%
Singles /BIP	25.96%	÷1.026	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	21.29%
Doubles /BIP	9.94%	÷0.901	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	8.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷0.953	×0.840	—	×0.952	1.61%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 103, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .301; ISO .134 → .116; BABIP .361 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 394 PAwOBA .343 → .285 (−58)K% 14.7% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.72%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.96%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.99%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.38%
Singles /BIP	27.68%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.043	×0.962	25.07%
Doubles /BIP	6.64%	÷1.077	×0.830	×1.043	×0.962	5.14%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.043	×0.962	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	0.37%	÷1.319	×0.840	—	×0.962	0.23%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .343 → .285; ISO .070 → .055; BABIP .344 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 416 PAwOBA .277 → .229 (−48)K% 14.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.18%	÷0.971	×1.290	—	—	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.005	×0.710	—	×0.972	7.10%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	1.14%
Singles /BIP	24.25%	÷1.015	×0.900	×1.010	×0.972	21.11%
Doubles /BIP	2.99%	÷0.918	×0.810	×1.010	×0.972	2.59%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷0.977	×0.810	×1.010	×0.972	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	0.33%	÷0.928	×0.780	—	×0.972	0.27%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 95, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .277 → .229; ISO .044 → .038; BABIP .276 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 182 PAwOBA .359 → .304 (−55)K% 10.4% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.44%	÷0.964	×1.290	—	—	13.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.19%	÷1.052	×0.710	—	×0.982	8.74%
HBP% /PA	1.65%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.59%
Singles /BIP	32.82%	÷1.046	×0.900	×1.050	×0.982	29.12%
Doubles /BIP	2.29%	÷1.196	×0.810	×1.050	×0.982	1.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.050	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.53%	÷0.973	×0.780	—	×0.982	1.20%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .359 → .304; ISO .060 → .048; BABIP .354 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAADurham Bulls · 240 PAwOBA .304 → .249 (−55)K% 12.5% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	14.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.83%	÷1.148	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.44%
HBP% /PA	1.25%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.17%
Singles /BIP	26.79%	÷1.025	×0.930	×0.995	×0.992	24.01%
Doubles /BIP	2.38%	÷1.062	×0.830	×0.995	×0.992	1.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.995	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.840	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 105, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .304 → .249; ISO .020 → .017; BABIP .292 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAALouisville Bats · 315 PAwOBA .327 → .287 (−40)K% 13.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.02%	÷0.926	×1.200	—	—	16.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.02%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.003	8.93%
HBP% /PA	0.32%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.30%
Singles /BIP	25.66%	÷0.999	×0.930	×1.050	×1.003	25.17%
Doubles /BIP	7.52%	÷1.108	×0.830	×1.050	×1.003	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.928	×0.840	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 85, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .327 → .287; ISO .064 → .052; BABIP .326 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 310 PAwOBA .358 → .303 (−56)K% 11.9% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.94%	÷0.938	×1.290	—	—	16.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.003	×0.710	—	×1.018	7.20%
HBP% /PA	2.26%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	2.25%
Singles /BIP	25.11%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.984	×1.018	23.00%
Doubles /BIP	5.63%	÷1.008	×0.810	×0.984	×1.018	4.53%
Triples /BIP	1.73%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.984	×1.018	1.40%
Home runs /BIP	2.16%	÷1.002	×0.780	—	×1.018	1.72%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 100, K 88, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .358 → .303; ISO .134 → .107; BABIP .328 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).