Julio Rodríguez

CF Seattle Mariners
Age 26 R/R 6'4" / 228 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2035
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202423MLBSEA613.273/.326/.40920241103.2
202524MLBSEA710.267/.325/.47432301234.9
202625MLBSEA654.247/.309/.40122221001.9
2027PROJ26MLBSEA614.265/.321/.43423331143.3
2028PROJ27MLBSEA614.264/.321/.43223321133.2
2029PROJ28MLBSEA614.262/.319/.42822291123.0
Last 3 seasons WAR 10.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 9.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractCONFIRMED
Control thru2034Service5.000First FA2035
2027Ext$25M2028Ext$25M2029Ext$25M2030Ext$25M2031Ext$25M2032Ext$25M2033Ext$25M2034Ext$25M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd90
Avg EV81
Speed81
xwOBA80
Barrel%59
Form.260/.313/.416 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .267/.321/.441
CompsJosh Lowe (age 26) · Carlos Gómez (age 27) · Brandon Phillips (age 27)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 116114vR 107
AVG/OBP/SLG.265 / .321 / .434
PA614
HR23
SB33
K%22
BB%6
BABIP309
ISO169
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +10.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+10BATRUN: +6.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+7RUNFLD: +2.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +13.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+13REPTotal WAR: +3.70+3.7WAR
0.02.04.03.73.23.02.62.31.81.20.427282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$54M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT55
xAVG
740.271
POWER50
Barrel%
599.6
Avg EV
8191.2
Bat Spd
9076.2
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
8128.7
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%22%·22% over 116 PA (60d) · proj 22%
BB%6%·6% over 116 PA (60d) · proj 6%
ISO.157▼.131 over 107 AB (60d) · proj .174
HR/BB4.2%▼2.5% over 81 BBE (60d) · proj 5.5%
BABIP.311·.304 over 79 BIP (60d) · proj .312
SLASH.260/.313/.416▼proj .267/.321/.441
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1445 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
380
1065
—
wRC+
114
111
—
wOBA
336
332
—
ISO
201
154
◀◀L
BABIP
302
328
▶R
K%
23.9%
23.0%
▶R
BB%
6.3%
5.9%
◀L
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2022
Service   5.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$25M+3.7$38M+$13M
2028Ext$25M+3.2$28M+$5M
2029Ext$25M+3.0$23M+$3M
2030Ext$25M+2.6$17M-$1M
2031Ext$25M+2.3$14M-$3M
2032Ext$25M+1.8$10M-$5M
2033Ext$25M+1.2$6M-$7M
2034Ext$25M+0.4$0.9M-$11M
Totals $200M $137M -$5M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201817 ROKDSL Mariners — 255219 691395 30404 100 315407525932 210364 1612 406 65 — — — — — —
201918 A+Modesto Nuts — 7265 30632 5102 00 4625147381.252 277528 147 540 199 — — — — — —
201918 AWest Virginia Power — 295263 7720110 20669 13 293363490854 198353 227 374 86 — — — — — —
201918 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 6352 15400 8102 41 288403365769 77349 1613 351 124 — — — — — —
202019 INTLLeones del Escogido — 6456 11110 6162 30 196297250547 54275 259 261 63 — — — — — —
202120 AAArkansas Travelers — 206174 631107 29373 164 3624615461.007 184431 1814 446 162 — — — — — —
202120 A+Everett AquaSox — 134117 38826 14293 51 325410581992 256390 2210 432 118 — — — — — —
202221 MLBSeattle Mariners — 560511 14525328 401458 257 284345509854 225345 267 374 139 +26 +2 +4 +2 +12 4.8
202322 MLBSeattle Mariners — 714654 18037232 4717511 3710 275334485819 209330 257 360 129 +24 +3 +6 +3 +15 5.3
202423 MLBSeattle Mariners — 613567 15517020 381566 245 273326409735 136344 256 328 110 +7 +3 +6 +2 +13 3.2
202524 MLBSeattle Mariners — 710652 17431432 4415212 306 267325474799 207302 216 351 123 +20 +4 +7 +3 +15 4.9
202625 MLBSeattle Mariners — 654596 14726022 471457 223 247309401710 154289 227 316 100 +0 +3 -1 +2 +14 1.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 32512980 8011369134 21677344 13831 269327455783 187320 247 346 120 +77 +15 +22 +12 +70 20.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201817 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 255229 46862 20494 100 201277314591 114241 198 264 65 — — — — — —
201918 A+ MLEModesto Nuts — 7266 26522 4142 00 3944446211.066 227483 196 463 199 — — — — — —
201918 A MLEWest Virginia Power — 295270 641618 13869 13 237295393687 156304 294 295 86 — — — — — —
202120 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 206185 661107 18443 164 357422530952 173440 219 408 162 — — — — — —
202120 A+ MLEEverett AquaSox — 134122 33624 9403 51 270336451787 180368 307 342 118 — — — — — —
202221 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 560515 14625329 361458 257 283340513853 229345 266 374 139 +26 +2 +4 +2 +12 4.8
202322 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 714660 18338233 4117511 3710 277330491821 214330 256 358 129 +24 +3 +6 +3 +15 5.3
202423 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 613568 15717021 371566 245 276327417745 141344 256 330 110 +7 +3 +6 +2 +13 3.2
202524 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 710657 17732433 3915212 306 269322481803 212302 215 350 123 +20 +4 +7 +3 +15 4.9
202625 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 654599 14826023 441457 223 247306406712 159289 227 316 100 +0 +3 -1 +2 +14 1.9
201817 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 255229 46862 20494 100 201277314591 114244 198 264 65 — — — — — —
201817 ROK RAWDSL Mariners — 255219 691395 30404 100 315407525932 210364 1612 406 65 — — — — — —
201918 A MLE3 teams — 430394 10624412 1911713 54 269324442766 173349 274 328 108 — — — — — —
201918 A RAW3 teams — 430380 12230412 338613 54 321394516910 195385 208 398 108 — — — — — —
202019 INTL MLELeones del Escogido — 6456 11110 6162 30 196297250547 54275 259 — — — — — — — —
202019 INTL RAWLeones del Escogido — 6456 11110 6162 30 196297250547 54275 259 261 63 — — — — — —
202120 AA MLE2 teams — 340307 9917211 27846 215 322388498887 176415 258 382 145 — — — — — —
202120 AA RAW2 teams — 340291 10119213 43666 215 3474415601.001 213415 1913 440 145 — — — — — —
202221 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 560515 14625329 361458 257 283340513853 229342 266 374 139 +26 +2 +4 +2 +12 4.8
202221 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 560511 14525328 401458 257 284345509854 225345 267 374 139 +26 +2 +4 +2 +12 4.8
202322 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 714660 18338233 4117511 3710 277330491821 214330 256 358 129 +24 +3 +6 +3 +15 5.3
202322 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 714654 18037232 4717511 3710 275334485819 209330 257 360 129 +24 +3 +6 +3 +15 5.3
202423 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 613568 15717021 371566 245 276327417745 141346 256 330 110 +7 +3 +6 +2 +13 3.2
202423 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 613567 15517020 381566 245 273326409735 136344 256 328 110 +7 +3 +6 +2 +13 3.2
202524 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 710657 17732433 3915212 306 269322481803 212304 215 350 123 +20 +4 +7 +3 +15 4.9
202524 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 710652 17431432 4415212 306 267325474799 207302 216 351 123 +20 +4 +7 +3 +15 4.9
202625 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 654599 14826023 441457 223 247306406712 159287 227 316 100 +0 +3 -1 +2 +14 1.9
202625 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 654596 14726022 471457 223 247309401710 154289 227 316 100 +0 +3 -1 +2 +14 1.9
201817 ROK MLEDSL Mariners — 255229 46862 20494 100 201277314591 114241 198 264 65 — — — — — —
201918 A MLE3 teams — 430395 10624412 1911713 54 268324441764 172339 274 328 108 — — — — — —
202120 AA MLE2 teams — 340304 9917211 27846 215 326388503892 178412 258 382 145 — — — — — —
202221 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 560511 14625329 361458 257 286340517857 231345 266 374 139 — — — — — —
202322 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 714656 18338233 4117511 3710 279330494824 215330 256 358 129 — — — — — —
202423 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 613565 15717021 371566 245 278327419747 142344 256 330 110 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 710653 17732433 3915212 306 271322484806 213302 215 350 123 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 654598 14826023 441457 223 247306406713 159289 227 316 100 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 613565 15717021 371566 245 278327419747 142344 256 330 110 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 710653 17732433 3915212 306 271322484806 213302 215 350 123 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 654598 14826023 441457 223 247306406713 159289 227 316 100 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLESEA 100% 639585 15625125 411428 346 267324441765 174312 226 337 114 +11 +4 +2 +2 +14 3.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXSEA 100% 614562 14924123 391378 336 265321434756 170309 226 333 114 +10 +4 +2 +2 +13 3.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLESEA 100% 614562 14924123 401387 326 266323439762 172311 227 336 113 +10 +4 +2 +2 +13 3.2
202928 MLB MLESEA 100% 614563 14924123 391397 295 265321434755 169310 236 333 112 +8 +4 +1 +2 +13 3.0
203029 MLB MLESEA 100% 614563 14824123 391417 255 262318428747 166309 236 330 109 +7 +3 +1 +2 +13 2.6
203130 MLB MLESEA 100% 614563 14623122 391437 214 259315421735 161308 236 325 106 +4 +3 -0 +2 +13 2.3
203231 MLB MLESEA 100% 604555 14323121 381436 153 255310411720 155305 246 319 102 +1 +2 -1 +2 +13 1.8
203332 MLB MLESEA 100% 582536 13321019 351406 93 250303397701 148300 246 311 96 -2 +1 -2 +2 +13 1.2
203433 MLB MLESEA 100% 482445 10816015 291195 32 243295381676 139295 256 301 90 -6 -0 -3 +2 +10 0.4
203534 MLB MLESEA 100% 426394 9213012 251084 01 234285362647 128288 256 288 81 -9 -0 -3 +2 +9 -0.3
202827 MLB CTXSEA 100% 614562 14824123 401387 326 264321432753 168308 227 332 113 +10 +4 +2 +2 +13 3.2
202928 MLB CTXSEA 100% 614563 14724122 391397 295 262319428746 166308 236 330 112 +8 +4 +1 +2 +13 3.0
203029 MLB CTXSEA 100% 614563 14623122 391417 255 260316422738 162307 236 326 109 +7 +3 +1 +2 +13 2.6
203130 MLB CTXSEA 100% 614563 14523121 391437 214 257312414727 157305 236 322 106 +4 +3 -0 +2 +13 2.3
203231 MLB CTXSEA 100% 604555 14022120 381436 153 253308405712 152302 246 316 102 +1 +2 -1 +2 +13 1.8
203332 MLB CTXSEA 100% 582536 13321019 351406 93 247301392693 144298 246 308 96 -2 +1 -2 +2 +13 1.2
203433 MLB CTXSEA 100% 482445 10716015 291195 32 240293376669 135292 256 298 90 -6 -0 -3 +2 +10 0.4
203534 MLB CTXSEA 100% 426394 9113012 251084 01 231283357640 125285 256 286 81 -9 -0 -3 +2 +9 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 78017161 185830214288 500184493 27260 259316426742 167310 246 328 108 +90 +30 +18 +28 +169 34.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650597 15425124 421548 235 258316424740 166308 246 328 108 +8 +3 +1 +2 +14 2.9
Career— MLE — 95048728 229138028346 5922247126 34475 262319431750 169315 246 328 108 +101 +35 +20 +30 +182 37.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650597 15726224 401549 245 263319434753 171315 246 328 108 +8 +3 +2 +2 +14 2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 206 PAwOBA .433 → .408 (−25)K% 18.0% → 21.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.96%÷1.013×1.220——21.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.59%÷1.144×0.690—×1.0508.61%
HBP% /PA1.46%—×0.850—×1.0501.30%
Singles /BIP32.85%÷0.999×0.940×1.050×1.05034.07%
Doubles /BIP8.03%÷0.975×0.870×1.050×1.0507.90%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×1.050×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP5.11%÷0.892×0.780—×1.0504.69%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 103, BB 129 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .433 → .408; ISO .184 → .178; BABIP .431 → .440. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 134 PAwOBA .420 → .342 (−78)K% 21.6% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.64%÷0.985×1.350——29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.45%÷1.125×0.710—×1.0276.77%
HBP% /PA2.24%—×0.810—×1.0271.86%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.978×0.910×1.050×1.02725.08%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.076×0.830×1.050×1.0277.56%
Triples /BIP2.27%÷0.929×0.820×1.050×1.0272.16%
Home runs /BIP6.82%÷1.078×0.830—×1.0275.39%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 86, K 97, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .420 → .342; ISO .256 → .198; BABIP .390 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AWest Virginia Power · 295 PAwOBA .366 → .295 (−71)K% 22.4% → 29.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.37%÷1.026×1.340——29.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.44%÷1.013×0.660—×1.0454.39%
HBP% /PA3.05%—×0.770—×1.0452.45%
Singles /BIP23.35%÷1.030×0.920×0.950×1.04520.71%
Doubles /BIP10.15%÷0.977×0.820×0.950×1.0458.46%
Triples /BIP0.51%÷1.150×0.940×0.950×1.0450.41%
Home runs /BIP5.08%÷1.016×0.820—×1.0454.28%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .366 → .295; ISO .198 → .159; BABIP .353 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 72 PAwOBA .525 → .463 (−62)K% 13.9% → 19.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.89%÷0.976×1.340——19.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.94%÷1.052×0.710—×1.0504.92%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.790—×1.0502.30%
Singles /BIP34.55%÷1.005×0.910—×1.05032.84%
Doubles /BIP10.91%÷1.050×0.820—×1.0508.95%
Triples /BIP5.45%÷1.022×0.760—×1.0504.26%
Home runs /BIP3.64%÷0.768×0.920—×1.0504.58%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 54, 1B 101, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .525 → .463; ISO .277 → .255; BABIP .528 → .483. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 DSLDSL Mariners · 255 PAwOBA .398 → .264 (−133)K% 15.7% → 19.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.69%÷1.000×1.220——19.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.37%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0088.02%
HBP% /PA1.57%—×0.700—×1.0081.11%
Singles /BIP23.46%÷1.000×0.680×1.022×1.00816.42%
Doubles /BIP7.26%÷1.000×0.600×1.022×1.0084.49%
Triples /BIP5.03%÷1.000×0.600×1.022×1.0083.11%
Home runs /BIP2.79%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0081.32%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .398 → .264; ISO .210 → .122; BABIP .364 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .