Aaron Judge — OGILVIE

Aaron JudgeRF New York Yankees

Age 34 R/R 6'7" / 282 lbs MLB HR +8% Svc 9.297 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION261 act + 349 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 229222vR 202

AVG/OBP/SLG.296 / .422 / .620

PA349

HR26

SB6

K%26

BB%17

BABIP339

ISO324

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 51 / POW 68

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT51

Whiff%

4911.0%

xwOBA

900.461

POWER68

Barrel%

9025.2

Avg EV

9095.5

Bat Spd

9075.7

EYE65

Chase%

9019.7%

SPEED50

Sprint

3326.7

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1497 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

385

1112

—

wRC+

242

210

◀L

wOBA

502

460

◀L

ISO

440

341

◀◀L

BABIP

345

368

▶R

24.4%

24.2%

—

BB%

16.6%

13.9%

◀◀L

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.297 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$16M	+2.7	$22M	+$6M
2027	Ext	$40M	+6.2	$46M	+$10M
2028	Ext	$40M	+4.7	$32M	-$0.1M
2029	Ext	$40M	+3.3	$21M	-$8M
2030	Ext	$40M	+2.0	$12M	-$14M
2031	Ext	$40M	+0.9	$2M	-$21M
Totals		$216M		$135M	-$28M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$28M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	22	A+	3 teams	—	669	586	148	21	4	20	73	234	5	1	0	253	340	404	745	152	380	35	11	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	3 teams	—	669	557	169	29	4	21	102	153	5	1	0	303	416	483	899	180	381	23	15	398	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	2 teams	—	540	501	107	23	2	17	30	191	3	7	2	214	262	369	631	156	301	35	6	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	2 teams	—	540	478	122	26	3	20	53	144	3	7	2	255	333	448	781	192	319	27	10	343	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	2 teams	—	505	449	94	14	1	20	43	161	9	5	1	209	291	379	670	169	272	32	9	293	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	2 teams	—	505	436	110	20	1	23	56	140	9	5	1	252	349	461	810	209	314	28	11	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	678	542	149	23	3	48	127	208	5	9	4	275	417	594	1.011	319	348	31	19	420	179	+61	+0	+6	-7	+19	8.0
2017	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	678	542	154	24	3	52	127	208	5	9	4	284	424	627	1.052	343	357	31	19	448	201	+78	+0	+6	-7	+19	9.7
2018	26	MLB	New York Yankees	—	498	413	112	21	0	25	76	152	4	6	3	271	389	504	893	232	361	31	15	383	152	+29	+0	+3	-5	+14	4.2
2018	26	MLB	New York Yankees	—	498	413	115	22	0	27	76	152	4	6	3	278	396	528	923	249	368	31	15	402	166	+37	+0	+3	-5	+14	5.0
2019	27	MLB	2 teams	—	466	396	102	17	1	26	66	149	3	3	2	258	368	503	870	245	342	32	14	372	143	+23	-0	+4	-5	+13	3.6
2019	27	MLB	2 teams	—	466	394	105	18	1	28	67	148	3	3	2	266	376	530	907	264	352	32	14	396	161	+32	-0	+4	-5	+13	4.5
2020	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	114	102	25	3	0	8	10	32	2	0	1	245	325	510	834	265	274	28	9	366	139	+5	-0	+1	-1	+3	0.8
2020	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	114	101	26	3	0	9	10	32	2	0	1	257	333	554	888	297	283	28	9	383	151	+7	-0	+1	-1	+3	1.0
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	633	550	154	23	0	36	75	158	3	6	1	280	369	518	888	238	327	25	12	382	150	+36	+1	-2	-7	+18	4.7
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	633	550	158	24	0	39	75	158	3	6	1	287	376	544	919	256	332	25	12	399	163	+45	+1	-2	-7	+18	5.6
2022	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	696	574	172	27	0	58	111	175	6	16	3	300	418	650	1.068	350	329	25	16	429	186	+68	+2	+2	+2	+20	9.6
2022	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	696	570	177	28	0	62	111	175	6	16	3	311	425	686	1.111	375	340	25	16	468	216	+91	+2	+2	+2	+20	12.0
2023	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	458	367	94	15	0	34	88	130	0	3	1	256	400	575	975	319	291	28	19	404	168	+35	+0	-1	-5	+13	4.3
2023	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	458	367	98	16	0	37	88	130	0	3	1	267	409	613	1.022	346	300	28	19	436	192	+47	+0	-1	-5	+13	5.5
2024	32	MLB	New York Yankees	—	704	560	175	35	1	54	133	171	9	10	0	312	452	668	1.119	355	359	24	19	451	203	+82	+2	-5	+3	+20	10.4
2024	32	MLB	New York Yankees	—	704	559	180	36	1	58	133	171	9	10	0	322	459	701	1.160	379	367	24	19	490	233	+106	+2	-5	+3	+20	12.8
2025	33	MLB	New York Yankees	—	679	541	174	29	2	49	124	160	7	12	5	322	454	654	1.108	333	369	24	18	429	186	+66	+0	+2	-7	+19	8.3
2025	33	MLB	New York Yankees	—	679	541	179	30	2	53	124	160	7	12	5	331	461	688	1.149	357	376	24	18	484	229	+99	+0	+2	-7	+19	11.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	34	MLB	NYY	—	261	216	53	10	0	17	42	72	2	5	3	245	373	528	901	282	281	28	16	375	145	+13	-0	-1	-3	+7	1.8
YTD	34	MLB	NYY	—	261	214	53	10	0	17	42	72	2	5	3	248	373	533	906	285	286	28	16	393	159	+17	-0	-1	-3	+7	2.2
ROS	34	MLB	NYY	100%	349	284	84	14	0	26	59	89	3	6	3	296	422	620	1.042	324	341	26	17	448	201	+40	+0	+4	-4	+10	5.1
ROS	34	MLB	NYY	100%	349	284	86	15	0	27	59	89	3	6	3	303	428	641	1.069	338	345	26	17	448	201	+40	+0	+4	-4	+10	5.1
FULL	34	MLB	NYY	—	610	500	139	25	0	44	101	161	5	11	6	278	404	592	996	314	319	26	17	417	177	+53	-0	+3	-7	+17	6.8
TOT	34	MLB	NYY	—	610	500	137	24	0	43	101	161	5	11	6	274	401	580	981	306	314	26	17	417	177	+53	-0	+3	-7	+17	6.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	35	MLB	NYY	100%	529	437	125	20	1	38	82	139	5	7	3	286	405	597	1.002	311	329	26	16	429	186	+51	+0	-0	-6	+15	6.2
2028	36	MLB	NYY	100%	466	387	106	16	1	32	72	127	4	4	1	274	393	568	962	295	317	27	15	414	175	+39	+0	-1	-5	+13	4.7
2029	37	MLB	NYY	100%	399	332	86	13	0	26	61	111	3	2	1	259	379	533	912	274	305	28	15	398	162	+28	+0	-3	-4	+11	3.3
2030	38	MLB	NYY	100%	328	273	67	9	0	20	49	93	3	1	0	245	366	498	864	253	294	28	15	382	150	+19	+0	-4	-4	+9	2.1
2031	39	MLB	NYY	100%	252	211	50	7	0	14	37	73	2	0	0	237	356	469	825	232	282	29	15	366	138	+11	+0	-6	-3	+7	1.0
2032	40	MLB	NYY	100%	179	150	34	4	0	10	26	52	1	0	0	227	345	453	798	227	274	29	15	356	131	+6	+0	-7	-2	+5	0.2
2033	41	MLB	NYY	100%	110	92	21	2	0	6	16	32	1	0	0	228	349	446	794	217	274	29	15	351	126	+3	+0	-9	-1	+3	-0.3
2027	35	MLB	NYY	100%	529	437	127	21	1	39	82	139	5	7	3	291	408	611	1.019	320	332	26	16	429	186	+52	+0	-0	-6	+15	6.2
2028	36	MLB	NYY	100%	466	387	108	17	1	33	72	127	4	4	1	279	397	584	981	305	320	27	15	413	175	+39	+0	-1	-5	+13	4.7
2029	37	MLB	NYY	100%	399	332	87	13	0	27	61	111	3	2	1	262	381	545	926	283	308	28	15	397	162	+28	+0	-3	-4	+11	3.3
2030	38	MLB	NYY	100%	328	273	69	10	0	21	49	93	3	1	0	253	372	520	892	267	296	28	15	381	150	+18	+0	-4	-4	+9	2.1
2031	39	MLB	NYY	100%	252	211	51	7	0	15	37	73	2	0	0	242	360	488	848	246	284	29	15	365	137	+11	+0	-6	-3	+7	1.0
2032	40	MLB	NYY	100%	179	150	34	4	0	10	26	52	1	0	0	227	345	453	798	227	276	29	15	355	130	+6	+0	-7	-2	+5	0.2
2033	41	MLB	NYY	100%	110	92	21	2	0	6	16	32	1	0	0	228	349	446	794	217	276	29	15	350	126	+3	+0	-9	-1	+3	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7614	6271	1788	292	9	546	1219	2085	62	85	29	285	406	596	1.002	311	337	27	16	428	186	+736	+5	-15	-66	+216	89.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	535	153	25	1	47	104	178	5	7	2	286	406	600	1.006	314	338	27	16	428	186	+63	+1	-1	-6	+18	7.6
Career	—			—	9252	7747	2079	336	16	567	1358	2637	78	98	31	268	383	535	918	267	328	29	15	388	155	+577	+7	-15	-79	+262	76.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	544	146	24	1	40	95	185	5	7	2	268	381	537	918	268	328	28	15	388	155	+41	+1	-1	-6	+18	5.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	22	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	285	233	66	9	2	8	50	72	1	0	0	283	412	442	854	159	377	25	18	385	152	+17	+0	—	—	+8	2.5
2014	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	278	234	78	15	2	9	39	59	2	1	0	333	433	530	963	197	408	21	14	421	180	+25	+0	—	—	+8	3.4
2014	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	106	90	25	5	0	4	13	22	2	0	0	278	381	467	848	189	323	21	12	375	145	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2015	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	260	228	51	10	0	8	29	74	0	6	2	224	311	373	684	149	289	28	11	306	92	-2	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2015	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	280	250	71	16	3	12	24	70	3	1	0	284	354	516	870	232	345	25	9	377	147	+15	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2016	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	95	84	15	2	0	4	9	42	1	0	1	179	266	345	611	167	282	44	9	274	68	-3	-0	+1	-5	+3	-0.6
2016	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	410	352	95	18	1	19	47	98	8	5	0	270	369	489	857	219	319	24	11	377	147	+22	+1	—	—	+12	3.5
2017	25	MLB	New York Yankees	—	678	542	154	24	3	52	127	208	5	9	4	284	424	627	1.052	343	357	31	19	448	201	+78	+0	+6	-7	+19	9.7
2018	26	MLB	New York Yankees	—	498	413	115	22	0	27	76	152	4	6	3	278	396	528	923	249	368	31	15	402	166	+37	+0	+3	-5	+14	5.0
2019	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	447	378	103	18	1	27	64	141	3	3	2	272	381	540	921	267	360	32	14	401	165	+33	-0	+4	-5	+13	4.6
2019	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	19	16	2	0	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	125	263	312	576	188	125	37	16	267	63	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2020	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	114	101	26	3	0	9	10	32	2	0	1	257	333	554	888	297	283	28	9	383	151	+7	-0	+1	-1	+3	1.0
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	633	550	158	24	0	39	75	158	3	6	1	287	376	544	919	256	332	25	12	399	163	+45	+1	-2	-7	+18	5.6
2022	30	MLB	New York Yankees	—	696	570	177	28	0	62	111	175	6	16	3	311	425	686	1.111	375	340	25	16	468	216	+91	+2	+2	+2	+20	12.0
2023	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	458	367	98	16	0	37	88	130	0	3	1	267	409	613	1.022	346	300	28	19	436	192	+47	+0	-1	-5	+13	5.5
2024	32	MLB	New York Yankees	—	704	559	180	36	1	58	133	171	9	10	0	322	459	701	1.160	379	367	24	19	490	233	+106	+2	-5	+3	+20	12.8
2025	33	MLB	New York Yankees	—	679	541	179	30	2	53	124	160	7	12	5	331	461	688	1.149	357	376	24	18	484	229	+99	+0	+2	-7	+19	11.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5002	4105	1205	203	7	368	817	1369	40	65	21	294	415	615	1.030	322	349	27	16	441	195	+539	+5	+12	-38	+142	67.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Albert Pujolslast yr '22 MVPROYAS×3SS career totals — 22 seasons, 13,041 PA	22	13,041	703	117	296	374	544	-212	-86	94.1	76.8
	/162	664	36	6	296	374	544	-10.8	-4.4	4.8	pk7: 59
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 19 projected seasons	19	8,136	579	93	285	403	596	-105	+18	88.7	74.6
	/162	664	47	8	285	403	596	-8.6	+1.4	7.2	pk7: 61
#2David Ortizlast yr '16 AS×10SS×7HOF career totals — 17 seasons, 9,689 PA	17	9,689	531	16	287	380	557	-152	-13	80.7	63.8
	/162	664	36	1	287	380	557	-10.4	-0.9	5.5	pk7: 47
#3Lance Berkmanlast yr '13 AS×6SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,708 PA	14	7,708	362	81	294	407	539	-103	-78	63.4	55.7
	/162	664	31	7	294	407	539	-8.8	-6.7	5.5	pk7: 48
#4Jim Thomelast yr '12 AS×5SSHOF career totals — 13 seasons, 6,531 PA	13	6,531	416	3	270	396	558	-73	-26	59.7	52.4
	/162	664	42	0	270	396	558	-7.5	-2.6	6.1	pk7: 45
#5Jason Giambilast yr '14 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,160 PA	15	6,160	334	15	267	407	526	-83	-65	48.5	47.1
	/162	664	36	2	267	407	526	-8.9	-7.0	5.2	pk7: 46
#6Frank Thomaslast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,983 PA	9	3,983	220	4	273	387	528	-35	-1	34.2	33.5
	/162	664	37	1	273	387	528	-5.9	-0.1	5.7	pk7: 33

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Judge (OGILVIE)	34	49→51	68	50	65	274/401/580	306	314	43	11	26%	17%	177	+6.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Sammy Sosa 2003 · MLB	34	54→60	77→80	44→40	64	302/408/633	330	322	46	3	22%	15%	199	+8.6	267/352/527	260	295	37	2	23%	11%	151	+5.3	252/332/488	236	278	34	0	23%	10%	125	+3.0
●Jim Edmonds 2005 · MLB	35	54→62	72→70	44→45	63	291/402/604	314	332	39	6	24%	15%	189	+7.9	265/369/511	246	311	30	6	24%	14%	153	+5.4	255/357/469	214	298	26	4	23%	13%	128	+2.8
★Alex Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	34	55→60	69→70	52→55	59	300/398/577	277	318	37	17	19%	12%	182	+7.4	278/371/510	232	299	30	11	18%	12%	154	+5.5	270/365/484	214	291	28	8	18%	12%	139	+3.9
★Jeff Bagwell 2001 · MLB	33	56	70→65	43→45	65	303/414/592	289	310	37	8	16%	14%	190	+8.0	288/395/546	258	312	32	8	18%	14%	172	+6.7	283/391/532	249	306	31	8	18%	14%	161	+7.0
★Gary Sheffield 2002 · MLB	33	57→61	69→65	44→50	70	310/417/590	279	297	36	8	12%	15%	191	+8.0	307/405/551	244	300	31	11	10%	13%	177	+7.1	305/405/545	240	297	31	11	10%	13%	170	+7.1
★Lance Berkman 2009 · MLB	33	57→65	63→70	49→50	65	298/403/547	249	321	29	11	17%	14%	175	+6.9	277/390/494	217	306	25	8	17%	16%	157	+5.7	273/393/487	214	298	25	4	17%	16%	142	+4.2
★Larry Walker 2002 · MLB	35	63→66	64→65	49→50	63	325/425/589	264	347	30	12	16%	13%	194	+8.2	312/418/556	244	340	26	9	15%	14%	183	+7.5	307/422/548	241	335	25	8	15%	15%	172	+5.3
★Josh Donaldson 2018 · MLB	32	51→60	67→70	47→50	63	277/383/545	268	295	35	5	20%	14%	167	+6.4	260/373/508	248	297	31	5	23%	15%	154	+5.4	248/367/491	243	277	32	2	22%	15%	143	+3.4
●Miguel Cabrera 2017 · MLB	34	64→71	62→70	43→45	59	329/408/569	240	359	30	2	17%	12%	183	+7.5	289/365/468	179	335	22	2	19%	11%	141	+4.5	279/354/423	144	331	16	0	20%	10%	116	+2.0
★Brian Giles 2003 · MLB	32	56→63	68→70	50	74	301/424/592	291	290	33	12	11%	17%	194	+8.2	291/407/510	219	299	22	9	11%	16%	167	+6.4	290/407/483	193	303	17	8	10%	16%	151	+5.8
★David Ortiz 2008 · MLB	32	57→64	71→70	46→40	69	307/420/610	303	316	37	3	16%	16%	197	+8.5	268/370/515	247	292	29	2	19%	14%	154	+5.5	268/362/535	267	263	35	1	15%	13%	139	+4.6
★Luis Gonzalez 2002 · MLB	34	57→60	71→65	41→45	64	313/407/611	299	301	37	2	12%	12%	193	+8.2	294/396/535	241	296	28	5	12%	14%	170	+6.6	284/394/505	221	290	24	5	11%	15%	148	+4.9
★Jim Thome 2003 · MLB	32	53→54	76→80	39→30	69	291/421/618	327	328	44	2	25%	18%	199	+8.6	270/393/564	294	307	39	2	24%	17%	175	+6.9	265/395/545	280	301	38	0	24%	17%	160	+5.8
★Manny Ramirez 2004 · MLB	32	61→68	67→70	44→30	64	324/422/596	272	342	34	3	16%	14%	196	+8.3	305/403/591	286	323	37	3	18%	13%	186	+7.7	302/406/600	298	319	39	1	18%	14%	177	+7.3
★Jason Giambi 2003 · MLB	32	60→64	69→70	44→40	73	320/448/610	290	330	35	3	15%	17%	207	+9.1	264/407/516	252	283	32	2	19%	17%	169	+6.5	247/407/494	247	262	33	1	20%	18%	157	+4.9
●Joey Votto 2018 · MLB	34	60→69	60→65	49→50	74	309/435/535	226	332	26	7	15%	18%	184	+7.6	273/390/439	166	314	18	4	17%	15%	143	+4.7	248/355/453	205	284	25	3	22%	14%	127	+2.8
★Jeff Kent 2001 · MLB	33	62→65	62→65	46→45	62	318/409/565	247	343	27	11	16%	12%	183	+7.4	303/372/529	226	326	25	7	15%	9%	160	+5.9	300/364/523	223	320	25	6	15%	8%	150	+5.6
★Frank Thomas 2001 · MLB	33	59→61	68→70	37→30	69	316/422/596	280	318	35	3	14%	15%	195	+8.3	276/384/528	252	287	32	3	16%	14%	163	+6.1	259/387/520	261	269	33	1	18%	16%	157	+5.1
★Chipper Jones 2008 · MLB	36	61→71	64→65	50	65	320/410/579	259	332	29	7	14%	13%	186	+7.7	307/413/508	201	330	22	6	13%	15%	169	+6.5	297/415/475	178	320	20	5	13%	17%	145	+4.1
●Mike Piazza 2002 · MLB	33	56→59	69→70	39→30	59	305/383/577	272	302	38	3	14%	11%	176	+7.0	282/365/515	233	290	31	2	15%	11%	153	+5.4	274/364/489	215	283	29	0	15%	12%	133	+3.0