Aaron Judge — OGILVIE

Aaron JudgeRF New York Yankees

Age 34 R/R 6'7" / 282 lbs MLB HR +8%BB +8% Svc 9.297 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 8.0 · 2026

wRC+†vL 223198vR 196

AVG/OBP/SLG.311 / .438 / .663

PA599

HR47

SB16

K%24

BB%17

xwOBA.435

Barrel%25.9%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

49↗51

PWR

68→68

SPD

50→50

FLD

52→52

EYE

80↘65

trajectory · 10 yrs

8.9peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.297 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

NTC

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$40M	+8.0	$64M	+$24M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$40M	+6.2	$51M	+$11M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$40M	+4.8	$41M	+$0.7M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$40M	+3.5	$31M	-$9M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$40M	+2.2	$20M	-$20M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$40M	+1.1	$10M	-$30M
Totals		$240M		$216M	-$24M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$24M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	22	A+	3 teams	669	589	147	22	4	19	70	221	5	1	0	.250	.334	.397	.732	.148	.362	33	10	.320	103	+2	+0	+0	-7	+19	1.4
2015	23	AA	2 teams	540	497	105	22	1	16	34	183	3	7	2	.211	.266	.356	.622	.145	.293	34	6	.272	66	-21	+1	+0	-6	+15	-1.1
2016	24	AAA	2 teams	505	450	94	15	1	19	42	160	9	5	1	.209	.289	.373	.663	.164	.273	32	8	.291	81	-11	+1	+1	-5	+14	-0.0
2017	25	MLB	New York Yankees	678	542	153	25	4	49	127	208	5	9	4	.282	.423	.614	1.037	.332	.360	31	19	.423	182	+62	+0	+6	-7	+19	8.2
2018	26	MLB	New York Yankees	498	413	114	23	0	25	76	152	4	6	3	.276	.394	.513	.907	.237	.369	31	15	.380	149	+28	+0	+3	-5	+14	4.0
2019	27	MLB	2 teams	466	396	104	19	1	27	66	149	3	3	2	.263	.372	.520	.892	.258	.348	32	14	.381	150	+26	-0	+4	-5	+13	3.9
2020	28	MLB	New York Yankees	114	102	23	2	0	7	10	32	2	0	1	.225	.307	.451	.758	.225	.254	28	9	.332	112	+2	-0	+1	-1	+3	0.5
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	633	550	159	27	0	39	75	158	3	6	1	.289	.377	.551	.928	.262	.335	25	12	.393	159	+42	+1	-2	-7	+18	5.3
2022	30	MLB	New York Yankees	696	574	176	29	0	59	111	175	6	16	3	.307	.424	.666	1.090	.359	.339	25	16	.437	193	+73	+2	+2	+2	+20	10.1
2023	31	MLB	New York Yankees	458	367	96	17	0	34	88	130	0	3	1	.262	.404	.586	.990	.324	.301	28	19	.400	164	+33	+0	-1	-5	+13	4.1
2024	32	MLB	New York Yankees	704	560	181	37	1	56	133	171	9	10	0	.323	.460	.693	1.153	.370	.373	24	19	.465	214	+91	+2	-5	+3	+20	11.3
2025	33	MLB	New York Yankees	679	541	182	34	2	49	124	160	7	12	5	.336	.466	.678	1.144	.342	.392	24	18	.435	191	+70	+0	+2	-7	+19	8.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	34	MLB	New York Yankees	109	92	22	3	0	9	16	32	1	5	1	.239	.358	.565	.923	.326	.255	29	15	.395	160	+7	+1	-1	-1	+3	1.0
ROS	34	MLB	NYY	490	399	119	21	1	39	83	124	5	11	3	.298	.425	.649	1.074	.351	.335	25	17	.456	207	+59	+1	+1	-5	+14	7.1
TOT	34	MLB	NYY	599	491	141	24	1	48	99	156	6	16	4	.287	.413	.633	1.046	.346	.322	26	17	.445	198	+67	+2	-0	-6	+17	8.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	35	MLB	NYY	529	437	126	22	1	41	82	106	5	11	3	.288	.406	.625	1.031	.336	.287	20	16	.437	192	+55	+1	-5	-6	+15	6.2
2028	36	MLB	NYY	466	387	106	18	1	34	72	98	4	9	2	.274	.393	.589	.982	.315	.283	21	15	.425	183	+44	+1	-6	-5	+13	4.8
2029	37	MLB	NYY	399	331	89	15	1	28	61	88	4	7	1	.269	.389	.574	.963	.305	.278	22	15	.411	173	+33	+1	-7	-4	+11	3.5
2030	38	MLB	NYY	328	273	71	12	1	22	49	75	3	5	1	.260	.378	.553	.932	.293	.271	23	15	.397	162	+23	+1	-7	-4	+9	2.2
2031	39	MLB	NYY	252	211	52	9	0	16	37	59	2	3	0	.246	.364	.517	.881	.270	.263	23	15	.381	150	+14	+1	-8	-3	+7	1.1
2032	40	MLB	NYY	179	150	36	6	0	11	26	42	1	2	0	.240	.356	.500	.856	.260	.259	23	15	.374	144	+9	+0	-9	-2	+5	0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9283	7769	2133	375	19	590	1366	2491	80	126	33	.275	.388	.556	.944	.281	.325	27	15	.395	160	+634	+12	-29	-79	+263	81.7
/ 162G	—			650	544	148	26	1	41	96	174	6	9	2	.272	.388	.550	.937	.278	.321	27	15	.395	160	+44	+1	-2	-6	+18	5.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	22	A+	Tampa Yankees	285	233	66	9	2	8	50	72	1	0	0	.283	.412	.442	.854	.159	.377	25	18	.385	152	+17	+0	—	—	+8	2.5
2014	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	278	234	78	15	2	9	39	59	2	1	0	.333	.433	.530	.963	.197	.408	21	14	.421	180	+25	+0	—	—	+8	3.4
2014	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	106	90	25	5	0	4	13	22	2	0	0	.278	.381	.467	.848	.189	.323	21	12	.375	145	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9
2015	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	260	228	51	10	0	8	29	74	0	6	2	.224	.311	.373	.684	.149	.289	28	11	.306	92	-2	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2015	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	280	250	71	16	3	12	24	70	3	1	0	.284	.354	.516	.870	.232	.345	25	9	.377	147	+15	+0	—	—	+8	2.3
2016	24	MLB	New York Yankees	95	84	15	2	0	4	9	42	1	0	1	.179	.266	.345	.611	.167	.282	44	9	.274	68	-3	-0	+1	-5	+3	-0.6
2016	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	410	352	95	18	1	19	47	98	8	5	0	.270	.369	.489	.857	.219	.319	24	11	.377	147	+22	+1	—	—	+12	3.5
2017	25	MLB	New York Yankees	678	542	154	24	3	52	127	208	5	9	4	.284	.424	.627	1.052	.343	.357	31	19	.448	201	+78	+0	+6	-7	+19	9.7
2018	26	MLB	New York Yankees	498	413	115	22	0	27	76	152	4	6	3	.278	.396	.528	.923	.249	.368	31	15	.402	166	+37	+0	+3	-5	+14	5.0
2019	27	MLB	New York Yankees	447	378	103	18	1	27	64	141	3	3	2	.272	.381	.540	.921	.267	.360	32	14	.401	165	+33	-0	+4	-5	+13	4.6
2019	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	19	16	2	0	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	.125	.263	.312	.576	.188	.125	37	16	.267	63	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2020	28	MLB	New York Yankees	114	101	26	3	0	9	10	32	2	0	1	.257	.333	.554	.888	.297	.283	28	9	.383	151	+7	-0	+1	-1	+3	1.0
2021	29	MLB	New York Yankees	633	550	158	24	0	39	75	158	3	6	1	.287	.376	.544	.919	.256	.332	25	12	.399	163	+45	+1	-2	-7	+18	5.6
2022	30	MLB	New York Yankees	696	570	177	28	0	62	111	175	6	16	3	.311	.425	.686	1.111	.375	.340	25	16	.468	216	+91	+2	+2	+2	+20	12.0
2023	31	MLB	New York Yankees	458	367	98	16	0	37	88	130	0	3	1	.267	.409	.613	1.022	.346	.300	28	19	.436	192	+47	+0	-1	-5	+13	5.5
2024	32	MLB	New York Yankees	704	559	180	36	1	58	133	171	9	10	0	.322	.459	.701	1.160	.379	.367	24	19	.490	233	+106	+2	-5	+3	+20	12.8
2025	33	MLB	New York Yankees	679	541	179	30	2	53	124	160	7	12	5	.331	.461	.688	1.149	.357	.376	24	18	.484	229	+99	+0	+2	-7	+19	11.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5002	4105	1205	203	7	368	817	1369	40	65	21	.294	.415	.615	1.030	.322	.349	27	16	.441	195	+539	+5	+12	-38	+142	67.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Judge (OGILVIE)	34	49→51	68	50	65	.296/.422/.642	.347	.297	47	13	19%	17%	207	+9.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Alex Rodriguez 2009 · MLB	34	55→60	69→70	52→55	60	.299/.398/.574	.274	.318	37	17	19%	12%	181	+7.3	.280/.375/.516	.236	.301	31	12	18%	12%	157	+5.7	.270/.365/.481	.211	.292	27	8	18%	12%	137	+3.7
★Gary Sheffield 2002 · MLB	33	57→61	69→65	44→50	70	.310/.417/.590	.280	.297	37	8	12%	15%	192	+8.1	.308/.406/.553	.245	.301	31	11	10%	13%	178	+7.1	.305/.405/.545	.240	.297	31	11	10%	13%	170	+7.1
★Sammy Sosa 2003 · MLB	34	55→60	77→80	43→40	63	.305/.409/.635	.331	.327	46	3	22%	15%	199	+8.6	.270/.358/.538	.268	.297	38	2	23%	12%	156	+5.6	.252/.332/.488	.236	.278	34	0	23%	10%	125	+3.0
★Jeff Bagwell 2001 · MLB	33	55→56	69→65	43→45	65	.302/.412/.588	.286	.309	37	8	16%	14%	189	+7.9	.289/.396/.550	.261	.312	32	8	18%	14%	173	+6.8	.283/.391/.532	.249	.306	31	8	18%	14%	161	+7.0
★Brian Giles 2003 · MLB	32	56→63	67→70	50	74	.302/.423/.590	.288	.291	32	11	11%	17%	193	+8.1	.292/.409/.517	.225	.299	23	9	11%	16%	169	+6.5	.290/.407/.483	.193	.303	17	8	10%	16%	151	+5.8
●Jim Edmonds 2005 · MLB	35	55→62	71→70	44→45	63	.291/.402/.598	.306	.334	38	6	24%	15%	187	+7.8	.267/.373/.521	.254	.313	31	6	24%	14%	157	+5.7	.255/.357/.469	.214	.298	26	4	23%	13%	128	+2.8
★Larry Walker 2002 · MLB	35	62→66	63→65	49→50	63	.322/.422/.581	.259	.344	29	12	15%	13%	191	+8.0	.314/.418/.560	.246	.341	26	9	15%	14%	184	+7.6	.307/.422/.548	.241	.335	25	8	15%	15%	172	+5.3
★Jason Giambi 2003 · MLB	32	60→64	69→70	45→40	74	.322/.451/.614	.292	.331	35	3	15%	18%	209	+9.3	.268/.410/.524	.256	.286	32	3	19%	17%	172	+6.7	.247/.407/.494	.247	.262	33	1	20%	18%	157	+4.9
★Luis Gonzalez 2002 · MLB	34	57→60	70→65	41→45	63	.311/.405/.603	.292	.301	36	3	12%	12%	190	+8.0	.295/.397/.540	.245	.296	29	5	12%	14%	171	+6.7	.284/.394/.505	.221	.290	24	5	11%	15%	148	+4.9
★David Ortiz 2008 · MLB	32	56→64	71→70	46→40	69	.305/.416/.609	.304	.312	38	3	17%	16%	195	+8.3	.272/.375/.525	.253	.294	30	2	18%	14%	159	+5.8	.298/.391/.548	.250	.307	31	2	14%	13%	151	+4.7
★Jeff Kent 2001 · MLB	33	61→65	62→65	46→45	62	.316/.407/.561	.245	.340	27	11	16%	12%	180	+7.3	.304/.375/.530	.226	.327	25	7	15%	9%	160	+5.9	.300/.364/.523	.223	.320	25	6	15%	8%	150	+5.6
★Chipper Jones 2008 · MLB	36	61→71	64→65	50	65	.318/.409/.576	.258	.329	29	7	14%	14%	185	+7.6	.311/.415/.517	.206	.333	23	6	13%	15%	172	+6.7	.296/.415/.476	.180	.319	20	5	13%	17%	147	+4.2
★Jim Thome 2003 · MLB	32	53→54	75→80	40→30	68	.288/.417/.606	.318	.328	43	2	25%	18%	194	+8.2	.272/.396/.572	.300	.309	40	2	25%	17%	178	+7.1	.265/.395/.545	.280	.301	38	0	24%	17%	160	+5.8
★Mike Piazza 2001 · MLB	32	56→59	69→70	45→30	58	.310/.383/.582	.273	.302	38	6	13%	10%	177	+7.1	.295/.374/.556	.261	.298	36	3	15%	11%	167	+6.4	.288/.373/.541	.253	.292	35	0	15%	11%	148	+3.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)