Joey Votto1B Buffalo Bisons
Age 42 L/R 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA Svc 19.000 · Ctrl thru 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 169 proj PA
wRC+†131
AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .346 / .457
PA169
HR8
K%28
BB%12
ISO212
MLB%10%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: +6.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+6BATRUN: -0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -3.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +4.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.50.20.12628
Tools · ContractCON 75 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023
CONTACT75
Whiff%
3812.4%
xwOBA
900.357
POWER60
Barrel%
8813.9
Avg EV
7991.1
Bat Spd
2668.7
EYE75
Chase%
7626.6%
SPEED35
Sprint
1225.6
DEFENSE55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2007
Service   19.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2026
First FA Year   2027
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt / FA-deal$1M+0.0$0.1M-$1.0M
Totals $1M $0.1M -$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
200521 A+Sarasota Reds 530480 10421213 371753 45 217277350627 133302 337 274 68
200521 A+Sarasota Reds 530466 11923216 511233 45 255333416749 161307 2310 329 110
200622 AAChattanooga Lookouts 590536 14840220 501401 247 276339470809 194338 248 352 128
200622 AAChattanooga Lookouts 590508 16246222 781091 247 319411547958 228368 1813 418 178
200723 AAA2 teams 669605 16225223 501475 1810 268329430759 162313 227 330 111
200723 AAA2 teams 669580 17328226 751255 1810 298383488871 190336 1911 381 150
200824 MLBCincinnati Reds 589526 15632324 591022 75 297370506875 209328 1710 369 141 +27 -1 -0 -11 +17 3.3
200824 MLBCincinnati Reds 589526 15632324 591022 75 297370506875 209328 1710 384 152 +35 -1 -0 -11 +17 4.1
200925 MLBCincinnati Reds 544469 15138125 701064 41 322414567982 245372 1913 411 173 +45 +0 -10 -10 +15 4.1
200925 MLBCincinnati Reds 544469 15138125 701064 41 322414567982 245372 1913 428 186 +53 +0 -10 -10 +15 4.9
201026 MLBCincinnati Reds 648547 17234235 911257 165 314419576994 261351 1914 420 179 +58 +1 -10 -12 +18 5.7
201026 MLBCincinnati Reds 648547 17736237 911257 165 3244266001.026 276361 1914 444 198 +71 +1 -10 -12 +18 7.1
201127 MLBCincinnati Reds 719599 18038327 1101294 86 301412509922 209341 1815 388 155 +44 -1 -5 -13 +20 4.7
201127 MLBCincinnati Reds 719599 18540329 1101294 86 309419531950 222349 1815 415 176 +62 -1 -5 -13 +20 6.4
201228 MLBCincinnati Reds 475374 12242013 94855 53 3264675431.010 217392 1820 415 176 +41 -0 -5 -8 +13 4.1
201228 MLBCincinnati Reds 475374 12644014 94855 53 3374765671.043 230404 1820 456 207 +57 -0 -5 -8 +13 5.8
201329 MLBCincinnati Reds 726581 17429323 1351384 63 299435478913 179354 1919 382 151 +42 +0 -13 -13 +21 3.6
201329 MLBCincinnati Reds 726581 17730324 1351384 63 305439491929 186360 1919 412 173 +60 +0 -13 -13 +21 5.5
201430 MLBCincinnati Reds 272220 551506 47493 11 250389400789 150293 1817 347 124 +7 -0 -5 -5 +8 0.5
201430 MLBCincinnati Reds 272220 561606 47493 11 255393409802 155299 1817 363 136 +11 -0 -5 -5 +8 0.8
201531 MLBCincinnati Reds 695545 16732227 1431355 113 306455521976 215364 1921 413 174 +58 +1 -12 -12 +20 5.6
201531 MLBCincinnati Reds 695545 17133229 1431355 113 3144605411.002 228371 1921 441 195 +75 +1 -12 -12 +20 7.3
201632 MLBCincinnati Reds 677556 17733227 1081205 81 318433531964 212360 1816 401 165 +50 +1 -14 -12 +19 4.5
201632 MLBCincinnati Reds 677556 18134229 1081205 81 326439550990 225366 1816 430 187 +67 +1 -14 -12 +19 6.3
201733 MLBCincinnati Reds 707559 17533134 134838 51 3134525581.010 245315 1219 415 176 +60 +1 -7 -13 +20 6.3
201733 MLBCincinnati Reds 707559 17934136 134838 51 3204585781.036 258321 1219 449 202 +81 +1 -7 -13 +20 8.4
201834 MLBCincinnati Reds 623503 14027211 1081019 20 278415406820 127327 1617 365 137 +26 +0 -6 -11 +18 2.7
201834 MLBCincinnati Reds 623503 14328212 1081019 20 284419419839 135333 1617 381 150 +35 +0 -6 -11 +18 3.6
201935 MLBCincinnati Reds 608525 13431114 761234 50 255354398752 143307 2012 333 113 +9 +1 -4 -11 +17 1.3
201935 MLBCincinnati Reds 608525 13732115 761234 50 261359411770 150313 2012 346 123 +16 +1 -4 -11 +17 2.0
202036 MLBCincinnati Reds 223186 418010 37430 00 220350425775 204233 1917 343 120 +5 +0 -5 -4 +6 0.3
202036 MLBCincinnati Reds 223186 428011 37430 00 226354446800 220235 1917 358 132 +8 +0 -5 -4 +6 0.6
202137 MLB2 teams 555469 11923234 781344 10 254365529894 275279 2414 376 146 +29 +0 -4 -10 +16 3.1
202137 MLB2 teams 555469 12324236 781324 10 262372552924 290285 2414 399 164 +40 +0 -4 -10 +16 4.3
202238 MLBCincinnati Reds 376322 6417110 449710 00 199314351665 152251 2612 305 91 -4 +0 -10 -7 +11 -1.0
202238 MLBCincinnati Reds 376322 6618111 449710 00 205319370689 165257 2612 314 99 -0 +0 -10 -7 +11 -0.7
202339 MLB2 teams 345295 5610016 401028 00 190303386690 197223 3012 303 90 -4 +0 -4 -6 +10 -0.4
202339 MLB2 teams 345289 5710017 46968 00 197324408732 211225 2813 329 110 +4 +0 -4 -6 +10 0.4
202440 AAA2 teams 9784 13302 11451 10 155260262522 107289 4611 226 31
202440 AAA2 teams 9780 14302 15361 10 175312287600 112279 3715 282 74
▸ 2026 Season
202642 MLBTOR 169144 37718 20483 21 257359486845 229313 2812 357 131 +6 +0 -0 -3 +5 0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202743 MLBTOR 100% 8070 16303 9231 10 229325400725 171302 2911 345 122 +2 +0 -11 -1 +2 -0.8
202844 MLBTOR 100% 8070 16303 9231 00 229325400725 171291 2911 335 114 +1 +0 -12 -1 +2 -1.0
202743 MLBTOR 100% 8070 16303 9231 10 229325400725 171303 2911 335 115 +1 +0 -11 -1 +2 -0.9
202844 MLBTOR 100% 8070 16303 9231 00 229325400725 171293 2911 324 106 +1 +0 -12 -1 +2 -1.1
▸ Career Totals
Career 89067392 216746522362 1383168683 8129 293410509919 216335 1916 405 168 +683 +5 -145 -172 +252 63.7
/ 162G 650540 15834226 1011236 62 293410507918 215334 1916 405 168 +50 +0 -11 -13 +18 4.7
Career 109979265 257954430408 1560227397 12952 278388476864 197326 2114 369 140 +503 +5 -145 -196 +312 48.8
/ 162G 650548 15232224 921346 83 277387474861 197325 2114 369 140 +30 +0 -9 -12 +18 2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
200521 A+Sarasota Reds 530466 11923216 511233 45 255333416749 161307 2310 329 110 +6 -1 +15 2.0
200622 AAChattanooga Lookouts 590508 16246222 781091 247 319411547958 228368 1813 418 178 +52 +2 +17 7.2
200723 MLBCincinnati Reds 8984 27704 5150 10 321360548907 226354 176 396 161 +6 +0 -6 -12 +3 -0.9
200723 AAALouisville Bats 580496 14621222 701105 1710 294387478865 183332 1912 379 148 +32 -1 +16 4.8
200824 MLBCincinnati Reds 589526 15632324 591022 75 297370506875 209328 1710 384 152 +35 -1 -0 -11 +17 4.1
200925 MLBCincinnati Reds 544469 15138125 701064 41 322414567982 245372 1913 428 186 +53 +0 -10 -10 +15 4.9
201026 MLBCincinnati Reds 648547 17736237 911257 165 3244266001.026 276361 1914 444 198 +71 +1 -10 -12 +18 7.1
201127 MLBCincinnati Reds 719599 18540329 1101294 86 309419531950 222349 1815 415 176 +62 -1 -5 -13 +20 6.4
201228 MLBCincinnati Reds 475374 12644014 94855 53 3374765671.043 230404 1820 456 207 +57 -0 -5 -8 +13 5.8
201329 MLBCincinnati Reds 726581 17730324 1351384 63 305439491929 186360 1919 412 173 +60 +0 -13 -13 +21 5.5
201430 MLBCincinnati Reds 272220 561606 47493 11 255393409802 155299 1817 363 136 +11 -0 -5 -5 +8 0.8
201531 MLBCincinnati Reds 695545 17133229 1431355 113 3144605411.002 228371 1921 441 195 +75 +1 -12 -12 +20 7.3
201632 MLBCincinnati Reds 677556 18134229 1081205 81 326439550990 225366 1816 430 187 +67 +1 -14 -12 +19 6.3
201733 MLBCincinnati Reds 707559 17934136 134838 51 3204585781.036 258321 1219 449 202 +81 +1 -7 -13 +20 8.4
201834 MLBCincinnati Reds 623503 14328212 1081019 20 284419419839 135333 1617 381 150 +35 +0 -6 -11 +18 3.6
201935 MLBCincinnati Reds 608525 13732115 761234 50 261359411770 150313 2012 346 123 +16 +1 -4 -11 +17 2.0
202036 MLBCincinnati Reds 223186 428011 37430 00 226354446800 220235 1917 358 132 +8 +0 -5 -4 +6 0.6
202137 MLBCincinnati Reds 533448 11923136 771274 10 266378562941 297287 2414 405 168 +41 +0 -4 -10 +15 4.3
202137 AAALouisville Bats 2221 4110 150 00 190227333561 143250 235 246 46 -1 +0 +1 -0.1
202238 MLBCincinnati Reds 376322 6618111 449710 00 205319370689 165257 2612 314 99 -0 +0 -10 -7 +11 -0.7
202339 MLBCincinnati Reds 242208 426014 27627 00 202314433747 231212 2611 334 113 +4 +0 -4 -6 +7 0.0
202339 AAALouisville Bats 10381 15403 19341 00 185347346692 160261 3318 317 100 +0 +0 +3 0.3
202440 AAABuffalo Bisons 5142 6001 8220 00 143280214494 71250 4316 239 41 -3 +0 +1 -0.2
202440 ADunedin Blue Jays 4638 8301 7141 10 211348368716 158304 3015 330 111 +1 +0 +1 0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 87467252 213545922356 1365164081 8029 294412511923 217335 1916 406 169 +682 +4 -122 -169 +248 65.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Miguel Cabreralast yr '23
MVP×2ROYAS×12SS×7HOF
career totals — 21 seasons, 11,796 PA
2111,79651140306382518-133-13979.265.6
/162664292-7.5-7.84.5pk7: 52
#2Todd Heltonlast yr '13
career totals — 14 seasons, 8,100 PA
148,10030427317419536-120-8867.361.9
/162664252-9.9-7.25.5pk7: 57
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 19 projected seasons
198,92336381296408513-160-16372.360.6
/162664276-11.9-12.15.4pk7: 49
#3Lance Berkmanlast yr '13
AS×6SS
career totals — 14 seasons, 7,708 PA
147,70836281294407539-103-7863.455.7
/162664317-8.8-6.75.5pk7: 48
#4Jason Giambilast yr '14
career totals — 15 seasons, 6,160 PA
156,16033415267407526-83-6548.547.1
/162664362-8.9-7.05.2pk7: 46
#5Matt Hollidaylast yr '18
AS×7SS×4
career totals — 15 seasons, 7,981 PA
157,981316108299379510-89-9152.245.4
/162664269-7.4-7.54.3pk7: 39
#6Derrek Leelast yr '11
career totals — 12 seasons, 7,151 PA
127,15130897288371508-106-7641.337.1
/162664299-9.8-7.03.8pk7: 33

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Joey Votto (OGILVIE) 42 75 60 35 75 247/346/457 210313 82 28% 12% 131 +1.1
Matt Stairs
2010 · MLB
42 48→55 55→65 44→45 58 251/349/439 189289 234 22% 12% 127 +3.6 232/320/398 166296 208 27% 11% 105 +2.1 240/315/497257285351129%10%117+0.5
Andres Galarraga
2003 · MLB
42 53→59 54→60 38→40 47 266/341/445 179326 224 25% 8% 125 +3.5 272/335/446 174325 216 22% 8% 123 +3.3 301/351/48918835225221%6%137+2.1
Raul Ibanez
2014 · MLB
42 45→55 61→60 50→45 49 245/306/464 219266 293 22% 8% 116 +2.8 222/300/396 174258 217 22% 10% 95 +1.4 171/268/29412320111621%12%55-0.6
Steve Finley
2006 · MLB
41 48→56 55→60 46→50 52 251/312/439 188259 2310 14% 8% 111 +2.5 234/301/376 142251 129 12% 9% 90 +1.0 232/305/3621312497710%9%83+0.3
Ken Griffey Jr.
2010 · MLB
40 46→55 55→70 44→45 63 241/343/432 191254 233 17% 13% 122 +3.3 227/311/371 144256 166 18% 11% 94 +1.3 184/252/205212220016%8%24-0.6
Nelson Cruz
2022 · MLB
42 50→59 67→70 48→55 52 274/351/531 256302 373 23% 10% 151 +5.3 246/315/402 156302 206 24% 8% 103 +1.9 236/306/35411830114425%8%84+0.3
Cornelio Garcia
2006 · AAA
41 58→64 48→45 42→45 51 287/343/441 155332 145 18% 8% 124 +3.4 266/330/363 97321 79 18% 9% 98 +1.6 269/340/332633284817%9%91+0.5
Craig Biggio
2007 · MLB
41 50→59 54→60 47→50 49 256/315/441 184266 227 14% 6% 114 +2.7 246/292/392 146283 156 19% 5% 91 +1.1 246/281/37212729511420%4%79+0.2
Ricardo Saenz
2006 · AAA
44 50→53 56→55 44→30 48 263/320/449 186302 255 22% 7% 118 +3.0 246/305/412 166285 203 21% 7% 102 +1.8 238/300/39715927319120%7%96+1.0
Torii Hunter
2015 · MLB
40 60→65 51→65 45→55 44 300/338/467 167339 185 17% 5% 130 +3.8 257/307/426 169285 215 18% 6% 106 +2.2 237/292/40316625823219%6%92+1.1
Jim Edmonds
2010 · MLB
40 46→56 57→70 43→45 58 245/335/447 202269 255 20% 12% 123 +3.3 258/328/455 197304 228 22% 9% 122 +3.3 268/335/48321631523422%9%131+1.7
Carlos Beltrán
2017 · MLB
40 53→61 56→65 46→60 50 274/327/467 194295 242 17% 7% 125 +3.5 246/300/411 165280 193 19% 7% 99 +1.7 223/278/36514225716020%6%73-0.1
Matias Carrillo Sr.
2007 · AAA
44 55→62 51→55 49→50 52 275/326/436 161277 1910 10% 6% 116 +2.8 266/310/389 123280 1310 10% 6% 96 +1.5 284/323/3921082961298%5%106+0.8
Willis Otáñez
2014 · AAA
41 53→63 52→60 46→40 47 269/323/427 157306 213 20% 6% 113 +2.6 236/294/366 130287 174 23% 7% 85 +0.7 223/292/33711526817023%8%78+0.1
Rafael Palmeiro
2005 · MLB
40 49→53 60→70 46→40 66 260/362/477 217249 283 11% 13% 142 +4.6 258/341/440 182258 245 11% 11% 124 +3.4 260/339/43817825326310%10%115+2.0
Manny Ramirez
2012 · MLB
40 54→64 52→70 43→30 61 266/373/438 172318 194 21% 13% 136 +4.2 231/289/348 117294 136 25% 7% 78 +0.2 196/242/2919521214016%5%42-0.5
Roberto Mendez
2013 · AAA
40 50→59 48→50 45 52 248/319/390 142300 164 22% 9% 102 +1.8 243/313/352 109301 97 21% 9% 89 +0.9 250/324/334843095519%10%87+0.3
Pedro Castellano
2012 · AAA
42 56→65 46→55 48→45 44 274/321/398 123327 145 21% 6% 104 +2.0 244/285/368 124292 158 21% 5% 81 +0.4 271/302/40813730519718%4%98+0.6
Julio Franco
2002 · MLB
43 53 50 48→45 52 266/340/424 157312 187 20% 9% 119 +3.1 280/353/407 127340 127 20% 10% 119 +3.1 291/366/44115035214620%10%125+1.6
Julian Yan
2007 · AAA
42 41→42 58→65 46→45 49 225/298/424 198264 286 27% 9% 102 +1.9 240/295/445 205275 2810 24% 7% 107 +2.2 238/293/46422625933923%7%108+1.8