Joey Votto

Pos1B

B/TL/R

Born1983-09-10

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	38	MLBCIN	376	.205/.319/.370	11	0	95	-1.1
2023	39	AAACIN	103	.185/.347/.346	3	0	47	—	.148/.257/.261
2023	39	MLBCIN	242	.202/.314/.433	14	0	104	-0.4
2024	40	AAA/ATOR	97	.175/.312/.288	2	1	23	—	.130/.229/.224
2025	41	No MLB games played
2026	42	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2021-2023

xwOBA90

Barrel%88

Avg EV79

Bat Spd26

Speed12

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	21	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	530	466	119	23	2	16	51	123	3	4	5	255	333	416	749	161	307	23	10	329	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	590	508	162	46	2	22	78	109	1	24	7	319	411	547	958	228	368	18	13	418	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	89	84	27	7	0	4	5	15	0	1	0	321	360	548	907	226	354	17	6	396	149	+5	+0	-6	-12	+2	-1.1
2007	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	580	496	146	21	2	22	70	110	5	17	10	294	387	478	865	183	332	19	12	379	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	589	526	156	32	3	24	59	102	2	7	5	297	370	506	875	209	328	17	10	384	139	+27	-1	-0	-11	+13	2.9
2009	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	469	151	38	1	25	70	106	4	4	1	322	414	567	982	245	372	19	13	428	167	+44	+0	-10	-10	+12	3.6
2010	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	648	547	177	36	2	37	91	125	7	16	5	324	426	600	1.026	276	361	19	14	444	173	+56	+1	-10	-12	+14	5.1
2011	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	719	599	185	40	3	29	110	129	4	8	6	309	419	531	950	222	349	18	15	415	152	+44	-1	-5	-13	+16	4.2
2012	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	475	374	126	44	0	14	94	85	5	5	3	337	476	567	1.043	230	404	18	20	456	172	+41	-0	-5	-8	+10	3.8
2013	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	726	581	177	30	3	24	135	138	4	6	3	305	439	491	929	186	360	19	19	412	147	+41	+0	-13	-13	+16	3.1
2014	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	220	56	16	0	6	47	49	3	1	1	255	393	409	802	155	299	18	17	363	124	+8	-0	-5	-5	+6	0.3
2015	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	695	545	171	33	2	29	143	135	5	11	3	314	460	541	1.002	228	371	19	21	441	167	+56	+1	-12	-12	+15	4.9
2016	32	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	677	556	181	34	2	29	108	120	5	8	1	326	439	550	990	225	366	18	16	430	161	+49	+1	-14	-12	+15	4.0
2017	33	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	707	559	179	34	1	36	134	83	8	5	1	320	458	578	1.036	258	321	12	19	449	169	+58	+1	-7	-13	+15	5.6
2018	34	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	623	503	143	28	2	12	108	101	9	2	0	284	419	419	839	135	333	16	17	381	135	+26	+0	-6	-11	+13	2.3
2019	35	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	608	525	137	32	1	15	76	123	4	5	0	261	359	411	770	150	313	20	12	346	115	+11	+1	-4	-11	+13	1.1
2020	36	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	223	186	42	8	0	11	37	43	0	0	0	226	354	446	800	220	235	19	17	358	119	+5	+0	-5	-4	+5	0.1
2021	37	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	533	448	119	23	1	36	77	127	4	1	0	266	378	562	941	297	287	24	14	405	147	+30	+0	-4	-10	+12	2.8
2021	37	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	22	21	4	1	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	190	227	333	561	143	250	23	5	246	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	38	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	376	322	66	18	1	11	44	97	10	0	0	205	319	370	689	165	257	26	12	314	95	-2	+0	-10	-7	+8	-1.1
2023	39	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	208	42	6	0	14	27	62	7	0	0	202	314	433	747	231	212	26	11	334	104	+1	+0	-4	-6	+5	-0.4
2023	39	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	103	81	15	4	0	3	19	34	1	0	0	185	347	346	692	160	261	33	18	317	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	40	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	51	42	6	0	0	1	8	22	0	0	0	143	280	214	494	71	250	43	16	239	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	40	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	46	38	8	3	0	1	7	14	1	1	0	211	348	368	716	158	304	30	15	330	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	8746	7252	2135	459	22	356	1365	1640	81	80	29	294	412	511	923	217	335	19	16	406	161	+635	+4	-122	-169	+189	54.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	21	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	530	480	105	21	2	13	37	175	3	4	5	219	279	352	631	133	295	33	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	590	535	152	44	2	18	51	133	1	24	7	284	348	475	822	191	344	23	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	89	85	27	7	0	4	4	15	0	1	0	318	348	541	889	224	354	17	4	389	149	+5	+0	-6	-12	+2	-1.1
2007	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	580	519	141	19	2	20	47	132	5	17	10	272	338	432	770	160	313	23	8	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	589	535	156	32	3	24	50	102	2	7	5	292	354	497	852	206	328	17	8	374	139	+27	-1	-0	-11	+13	2.9
2009	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	479	151	38	1	25	60	106	4	4	1	315	396	555	951	240	372	19	11	415	167	+44	+0	-10	-10	+12	3.6
2010	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	648	555	174	37	2	34	83	125	7	16	5	314	409	571	980	258	361	19	13	424	173	+56	+1	-10	-12	+14	5.1
2011	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	719	614	183	41	3	27	95	129	4	8	6	298	396	507	902	208	349	18	13	392	152	+44	-1	-5	-13	+16	4.2
2012	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	475	392	126	45	0	13	76	85	5	5	3	321	438	536	973	214	404	18	16	423	172	+41	-0	-5	-8	+10	3.8
2013	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	726	600	175	31	3	22	116	138	4	6	3	292	410	463	873	172	360	19	16	385	147	+41	+0	-13	-13	+16	3.1
2014	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	222	56	16	0	6	45	49	3	1	1	252	385	405	791	153	299	18	17	352	124	+8	-0	-5	-5	+6	0.3
2015	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	695	560	169	34	2	27	128	135	5	11	3	302	436	514	950	212	371	19	18	416	167	+56	+1	-12	-12	+15	4.9
2016	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	677	571	179	35	2	27	93	120	5	8	1	313	414	524	938	210	366	18	14	406	161	+49	+1	-14	-12	+15	4.0
2017	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	707	579	176	35	1	33	114	83	8	5	1	304	425	539	964	235	321	12	16	418	169	+58	+1	-7	-13	+15	5.6
2018	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	623	509	141	28	2	11	102	101	9	2	0	277	406	405	811	128	333	16	16	368	135	+26	+0	-6	-11	+13	2.3
2019	35	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	608	527	137	33	1	14	74	123	4	5	0	260	355	406	761	146	313	20	12	338	115	+11	+1	-4	-11	+13	1.1
2020	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	223	187	41	8	0	10	36	43	0	0	0	219	345	422	768	203	235	19	16	344	119	+5	+0	-5	-4	+5	0.1
2021	37	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	533	454	116	23	1	33	71	127	4	1	0	256	361	529	890	273	287	24	13	385	147	+30	+0	-4	-10	+12	2.8
2021	37	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	22	21	4	1	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	190	227	333	561	143	222	27	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	38	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	376	322	65	18	1	10	44	97	10	0	0	202	316	357	674	155	257	26	12	308	95	-2	+0	-10	-7	+8	-1.1
2023	39	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	208	41	6	0	13	27	62	7	0	0	197	310	413	723	216	212	26	11	323	104	+1	+0	-4	-6	+5	-0.4
2023	39	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	103	88	13	4	0	2	12	41	1	0	0	148	257	261	519	114	222	40	12	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	40	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	51	45	5	0	0	1	5	26	0	0	0	111	200	178	378	67	217	51	10	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	40	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	46	40	6	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	150	261	275	536	125	255	39	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	530	480	105	21	2	13	37	175	3	4	5	219	279	352	631	133	306	33	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A+ RAW	Sarasota Reds	—	530	466	119	23	2	16	51	123	3	4	5	255	333	416	749	161	307	23	10	329	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	590	535	152	44	2	18	51	133	1	24	7	284	348	475	822	191	346	23	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	590	508	162	46	2	22	78	109	1	24	7	319	411	547	958	228	368	18	13	418	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	669	604	168	26	2	24	51	147	5	18	10	278	339	447	786	169	326	22	8	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	669	580	173	28	2	26	75	125	5	18	10	298	383	488	871	190	336	19	11	381	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	589	535	156	32	3	24	50	102	2	7	5	292	354	497	852	206	321	17	8	374	139	+27	-1	-0	-11	+13	2.9
2008	24	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	589	526	156	32	3	24	59	102	2	7	5	297	370	506	875	209	328	17	10	384	139	+27	-1	-0	-11	+13	2.9
2009	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	479	151	38	1	25	60	106	4	4	1	315	396	555	951	240	361	19	11	415	167	+44	+0	-10	-10	+12	3.6
2009	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	469	151	38	1	25	70	106	4	4	1	322	414	567	982	245	372	19	13	428	167	+44	+0	-10	-10	+12	3.6
2010	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	648	555	174	37	2	34	83	125	7	16	5	314	409	571	980	258	351	19	13	424	173	+56	+1	-10	-12	+14	5.1
2010	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	648	547	177	36	2	37	91	125	7	16	5	324	426	600	1.026	276	361	19	14	444	173	+56	+1	-10	-12	+14	5.1
2011	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	719	614	183	41	3	27	95	129	4	8	6	298	396	507	902	208	336	18	13	392	152	+44	-1	-5	-13	+16	4.2
2011	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	719	599	185	40	3	29	110	129	4	8	6	309	419	531	950	222	349	18	15	415	152	+44	-1	-5	-13	+16	4.2
2012	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	475	392	126	45	0	13	76	85	5	5	3	321	438	536	973	214	382	18	16	423	172	+41	-0	-5	-8	+10	3.8
2012	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	475	374	126	44	0	14	94	85	5	5	3	337	476	567	1.043	230	404	18	20	456	172	+41	-0	-5	-8	+10	3.8
2013	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	726	600	175	31	3	22	116	138	4	6	3	292	410	463	873	172	343	19	16	385	147	+41	+0	-13	-13	+16	3.1
2013	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	726	581	177	30	3	24	135	138	4	6	3	305	439	491	929	186	360	19	19	412	147	+41	+0	-13	-13	+16	3.1
2014	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	222	56	16	0	6	45	49	3	1	1	252	385	405	791	153	296	18	17	352	124	+8	-0	-5	-5	+6	0.3
2014	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	220	56	16	0	6	47	49	3	1	1	255	393	409	802	155	299	18	17	363	124	+8	-0	-5	-5	+6	0.3
2015	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	695	560	169	34	2	27	128	135	5	11	3	302	436	514	950	212	355	19	18	416	167	+56	+1	-12	-12	+15	4.9
2015	31	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	695	545	171	33	2	29	143	135	5	11	3	314	460	541	1.002	228	371	19	21	441	167	+56	+1	-12	-12	+15	4.9
2016	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	677	571	179	35	2	27	93	120	5	8	1	313	414	524	938	210	352	18	14	406	161	+49	+1	-14	-12	+15	4.0
2016	32	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	677	556	181	34	2	29	108	120	5	8	1	326	439	550	990	225	366	18	16	430	161	+49	+1	-14	-12	+15	4.0
2017	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	707	579	176	35	1	33	114	83	8	5	1	304	425	539	964	235	305	12	16	418	169	+58	+1	-7	-13	+15	5.6
2017	33	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	707	559	179	34	1	36	134	83	8	5	1	320	458	578	1.036	258	321	12	19	449	169	+58	+1	-7	-13	+15	5.6
2018	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	623	509	141	28	2	11	102	101	9	2	0	277	406	405	811	128	325	16	16	368	135	+26	+0	-6	-11	+13	2.3
2018	34	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	623	503	143	28	2	12	108	101	9	2	0	284	419	419	839	135	333	16	17	381	135	+26	+0	-6	-11	+13	2.3
2019	35	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	608	527	137	33	1	14	74	123	4	5	0	260	355	406	761	146	313	20	12	338	115	+11	+1	-4	-11	+13	1.1
2019	35	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	608	525	137	32	1	15	76	123	4	5	0	261	359	411	770	150	313	20	12	346	115	+11	+1	-4	-11	+13	1.1
2020	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	223	187	41	8	0	10	36	43	0	0	0	219	345	422	768	203	231	19	16	344	119	+5	+0	-5	-4	+5	0.1
2020	36	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	223	186	42	8	0	11	37	43	0	0	0	226	354	446	800	220	235	19	17	358	119	+5	+0	-5	-4	+5	0.1
2021	37	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	555	475	119	24	2	33	72	133	4	1	0	251	354	518	872	267	275	24	13	377	142	+27	+0	-4	-10	+12	2.6
2021	37	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	555	469	123	24	2	36	78	132	4	1	0	262	372	552	924	290	285	24	14	399	142	+27	+0	-4	-10	+12	2.6
2022	38	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	376	322	65	18	1	10	44	97	10	0	0	202	316	357	674	155	256	26	12	308	95	-2	+0	-10	-7	+8	-1.1
2022	38	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	376	322	66	18	1	11	44	97	10	0	0	205	319	370	689	165	257	26	12	314	95	-2	+0	-10	-7	+8	-1.1
2023	39	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	345	296	54	10	0	15	39	103	8	0	0	182	294	368	663	186	217	30	11	297	87	-5	+0	-4	-6	+7	-0.8
2023	39	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	345	289	57	10	0	17	46	96	8	0	0	197	324	408	732	211	225	28	13	329	87	-5	+0	-4	-6	+7	-0.8
2024	40	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	97	85	11	2	0	1	10	45	1	1	0	129	229	188	417	59	250	46	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	40	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	97	80	14	3	0	2	15	36	1	1	0	175	312	287	600	112	279	37	15	282	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	530	485	105	21	2	13	37	175	3	4	5	216	279	348	627	132	295	33	7	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	590	533	152	44	2	18	51	133	1	24	7	285	348	477	824	191	344	23	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	669	608	168	26	2	24	51	147	5	18	10	276	339	444	783	168	318	22	8	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	589	532	156	32	3	24	50	102	2	7	5	293	354	500	854	207	328	17	8	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	544	475	151	38	1	25	60	106	4	4	1	318	396	560	956	242	372	19	11	415	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	648	553	174	37	2	34	83	125	7	16	5	315	409	573	983	259	361	19	13	424	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	719	614	183	41	3	27	95	129	4	8	6	298	396	507	902	208	349	18	13	392	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	475	391	126	45	0	13	76	85	5	5	3	322	438	537	975	215	404	18	16	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	726	600	175	31	3	22	116	138	4	6	3	292	410	463	873	172	360	19	16	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	272	222	56	16	0	6	45	49	3	1	1	252	385	405	791	153	299	18	17	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	695	557	169	34	2	27	128	135	5	11	3	303	436	517	953	214	371	19	18	416	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	677	574	179	35	2	27	93	120	5	8	1	312	414	521	935	209	366	18	14	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	707	579	176	35	1	33	114	83	8	5	1	304	425	539	964	235	321	12	16	418	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	623	507	141	28	2	11	102	101	9	2	0	278	406	406	813	128	333	16	16	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	35	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	608	525	137	33	1	14	74	123	4	5	0	261	355	408	763	147	313	20	12	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	36	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	223	185	41	8	0	10	36	43	0	0	0	222	345	427	772	205	235	19	16	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	37	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	555	474	119	24	2	33	72	133	4	1	0	251	354	519	873	268	285	24	13	377	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	38	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	376	319	65	18	1	10	44	97	10	0	0	204	316	361	677	157	257	26	12	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	39	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	345	295	54	10	0	15	39	103	8	0	0	183	294	369	664	186	215	30	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	40	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	97	86	11	2	0	1	10	45	1	1	0	128	229	186	415	58	235	46	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	40	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	97	86	11	2	0	1	10	45	1	1	0	128	229	186	415	58	235	46	10	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	8746	7252	2135	459	22	356	1365	1640	81	80	29	294	412	511	923	217	335	19	16	406	139	+635	+4	-122	-169	+189	54.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	539	158	34	2	26	101	122	6	6	2	293	410	508	919	215	334	19	16	406	139	+47	+0	-9	-13	+14	4.1
Career	—	MLE		—	10668	9127	2538	558	29	387	1376	2172	92	126	51	278	378	473	851	195	324	20	13	373	139	+635	+4	-122	-169	+189	54.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	556	155	34	2	24	84	132	6	8	3	279	379	477	856	198	324	20	13	373	139	+47	+0	-9	-13	+14	4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 51 PAwOBA .238 → .172 (−66)K% 43.1% → 51.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.14%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	51.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.69%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×0.940	9.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.988	×0.930	—	×0.940	22.12%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.830	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷0.990	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 41 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (13.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .238 → .172; ISO .071 → .047; BABIP .250 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 46 PAwOBA .322 → .235 (−87)K% 30.4% → 39.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.43%	÷1.041	×1.360	—	—	39.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.22%	÷0.959	×0.690	—	×0.940	10.30%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.780	—	×0.940	1.59%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.962	×0.920	—	×0.940	14.98%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	×0.940	9.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.003	×0.800	—	×0.940	3.12%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 41 vs a level average of 22.0 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (19.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .322 → .235; ISO .158 → .112; BABIP .304 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 103 PAwOBA .315 → .238 (−78)K% 33.0% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.01%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	39.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.45%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×0.940	12.05%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.86%
Singles /BIP	17.02%	÷0.998	×0.930	×1.012	×0.940	15.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.51%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.012	×0.940	7.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.970	×1.012	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.38%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.99%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 40 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .315 → .238; ISO .160 → .116; BABIP .261 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 22 PAwOBA .239 → .194 (−46)K% 22.7% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷0.949	×1.200	—	—	28.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷1.099	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×0.940	11.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.945	×0.830	—	×0.940	5.16%
Triples /BIP	6.25%	÷0.900	×0.920	—	×0.940	6.01%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 90, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 38 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (10.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .239 → .194; ISO .143 → .123; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAALouisville Bats · 580 PAwOBA .372 → .336 (−36)K% 19.0% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.21%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.10%
HBP% /PA	0.86%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.85%
Singles /BIP	26.17%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.989	×1.048	25.23%
Doubles /BIP	5.44%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.989	×1.048	4.68%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.989	×1.048	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	5.70%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	5.02%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .372 → .336; ISO .183 → .166; BABIP .332 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 590 PAwOBA .406 → .357 (−50)K% 18.5% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.47%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.37%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	8.64%
HBP% /PA	0.17%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.15%
Singles /BIP	23.06%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.002	×1.027	21.82%
Doubles /BIP	11.53%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.002	×1.027	10.79%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.002	×1.027	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	5.51%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.53%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .406 → .357; ISO .228 → .202; BABIP .368 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 A+Sarasota Reds · 530 PAwOBA .325 → .277 (−48)K% 23.2% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.21%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	32.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.25%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.012	7.02%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.53%
Singles /BIP	22.74%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.034	×1.012	21.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.71%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.034	×1.012	6.74%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.034	×1.012	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	4.66%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	4.15%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .325 → .277; ISO .161 → .137; BABIP .307 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).