Gavin Williams — OGILVIE

Gavin Williams P Cleveland Guardians

+1.7 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.7 · 2026

ERA4.07

FIP4.41

xFIP3.10

SIERA3.47

K%24.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%13.4%

IP159

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2026

K†6065

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p9032.2%

p9034.8%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

CT+2.3 (9%)

SL+2.3 (27%)

FB+1.7 (43%)

SI (14%)

CU (21%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	1.96	3.44	+2.4
2023	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	26.0%	10.6%	2.5%	2.91	3.60	+2.7
2024	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	24.8%	10.1%	2.2%	4.84	3.49	+1.8
2025	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	24.6%	11.8%	3.1%	3.06	4.23	+2.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	4	4	23	89	29	16	3	32.6%	18.0%	3.4%	2.38	4.48	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	23	23	125	530	149	67	16	28.1%	12.6%	3.0%	3.75	3.97	+1.9
2026 Total	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	148	619	178	83	19	28.8%	13.4%	3.1%	3.54	4.04	+2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	CLE	25	25	138	581	163	73	18	28.0%	12.6%	3.0%	4.27	4.37	+1.5
2028	29	MLB	CLE	23	23	125	529	145	67	16	27.5%	12.6%	3.1%	4.37	4.44	+1.2
2029	30	MLB	CLE	21	21	113	477	129	61	15	27.0%	12.7%	3.1%	4.47	4.54	+1.0
2030	31	MLB	CLE	18	18	101	428	113	55	14	26.4%	12.8%	3.2%	4.57	4.64	+0.8
2031	32	MLB	CLE	16	16	90	382	98	50	13	25.8%	13.0%	3.3%	4.68	4.76	+0.5
2032	33	MLB	CLE	15	15	80	339	85	45	11	25.1%	13.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.88	+0.2
2033	34	MLB	CLE	13	13	71	299	79	38	10	26.4%	12.6%	3.5%	4.77	4.75	+0.2
2034	35	MLB	CLE	11	11	62	262	67	34	9	25.7%	12.8%	3.6%	4.85	4.90	+0.0
2035	36	MLB	CLE	54	—	54	228	57	30	8	24.9%	13.1%	3.7%	4.98	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			110	110	541	2232	572	246	59	25.6%	11.0%	2.6%	3.06	3.78	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—			41	41	200	826	212	91	22	25.6%	11.0%	2.6%	3.06	3.78	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	26.0%	11.1%	2.9%	—	4.44	27.5%	14.9%	376	+0.14	—	—	—
Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	27	SP	4.53	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.56	20.6%	5.2%	199	+0.03	3.32	537	63
Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	27	SP	4.62	17.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.289	3.17	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.45	1.32	650	61
Nate Long R 2028 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	61
Rafael Montero R 2025 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	22.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.339	3.53	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.41	2.40	643	60
Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	19.7%	9.5%	1.4%	.282	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.92	3.42	355	59
Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	27	SP	3.97	19.0%	8.4%	2.6%	.309	3.21	24.6%	14.1%	199	-0.76	2.39	556	58
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	278	58
Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP	3.79	14.6%	9.8%	1.2%	.277	4.94	14.9%	5.0%	55	+1.15	3.79	254	57
Kyle Drabek R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	12.8%	9.6%	1.2%	.271	4.17	11.3%	0.7%	69	+0.24	3.93	206	56
Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	29	SP	4.43	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.50	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.07	4.37	474	56
Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.36	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.58	2.94	533	56
Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.92 FIP	27	SP	4.92	16.7%	10.5%	3.5%	.302	4.54	15.3%	7.8%	225	-0.38	4.02	800	56
Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	27	SP	5.27	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.12	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.15	3.50	622	56
Yordano Ventura R 2024 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	17.6%	9.4%	3.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	349	56
Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP	3.85	15.2%	8.8%	1.7%	.278	3.79	19.5%	11.0%	517	-0.06	3.68	887	55
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	27	SP	3.67	20.3%	8.6%	2.2%	.271	3.44	25.5%	16.1%	139	-0.23	2.27	577	55
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	25	SP	4.35	22.4%	9.9%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	254	55
Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.62 FIP	28	SP	3.62	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.63	15.0%	5.7%	452	+1.01	3.62	786	55
Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	29	SP	4.00	13.8%	7.1%	2.1%	.317	3.58	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.42	3.48	515	55
Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP	4.14	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	.290	4.94	16.2%	5.9%	316	+0.80	4.04	489	55

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+1.5	$12M	+$9M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+1.2	$10M	+$6M
2029	Arb-4	$5M	+1.0	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$13M		$45M	+$31M