Gavin Williams

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	22	22	93	4.84	3.40	25.2%	9.6%	2.3	K 24.7% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.54
2025	26	MLBCLE	31	31	168	3.06	4.30	24.6%	11.8%	2.2
2026	27	MLBCLE	32	32	184	3.76	3.38	33.2%	8.2%	4.6
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	26	26	157	3.95	3.98	30.6%	9.3%	2.7
2028PROJ	29	MLBCLE	22	22	135	4.07	4.14	30.0%	9.6%	2.0
2029PROJ	30	MLBCLE	20	20	120	4.23	4.34	29.3%	9.9%	1.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.599First FA2030

2027Arb-1$5M2028Arb-2$7M2029Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs60

Form2.54 ERA (proj 3.95) · K 38.6% (proj 30.6%) · BB 10.5% (proj 9.3%) ▲▲ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsMax Scherzer (age 28) · Chris Archer (age 28) · Jacob deGrom (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.95

FIP3.98

K%30.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%21.3%

Proj IP157

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p9032.8%

p9033.2%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$5M	+2.7	$23M	+$17M
2028	Arb-2	$7M	+2.0	$15M	+$8M
2029	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$21M		$48M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	100%	4.6	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	2.4%	1.96	3.44	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	100%	4.6	33.1%	8.9%	24.2%	2.0%	1.96	2.57	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	25.8%	10.0%	15.7%	2.5%	2.91	3.55	+3.2
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	27.9%	10.3%	17.6%	2.4%	2.91	3.37	+3.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	24.7%	9.8%	14.8%	2.3%	4.84	3.54	+2.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	24.7%	9.8%	14.8%	2.3%	4.84	3.54	+2.1
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	25.2%	9.6%	15.7%	2.2%	4.84	3.40	+2.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.32	+2.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.32	+2.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.30	+2.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	184	746	248	61	28	100%	5.8	33.2%	8.2%	25.1%	3.8%	3.76	3.39	+4.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	184	746	248	61	28	100%	5.8	33.2%	8.2%	25.1%	3.8%	3.76	3.39	+4.5
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	184	746	248	61	28	100%	5.8	33.2%	8.2%	25.1%	3.8%	3.76	3.38	+4.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			95	95	510	2127	581	212	66	100%	5.4	27.3%	10.0%	17.3%	3.1%	3.62	3.75	+10.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	26	26	157	663	203	62	23	100%	6.0	30.6%	9.3%	21.3%	3.5%	3.95	3.98	+2.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	135	571	172	55	21	100%	5.9	30.0%	9.6%	20.5%	3.6%	4.07	4.14	+2.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	120	507	149	50	19	100%	6.0	29.3%	9.9%	19.5%	3.8%	4.24	4.35	+1.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	106	449	128	46	18	100%	5.9	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	4.0%	4.45	4.58	+1.0
2031	32	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	91	384	107	41	17	100%	6.1	27.8%	10.6%	17.2%	4.3%	4.68	4.84	+0.6
2032	33	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	73	309	83	34	14	100%	6.1	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	4.6%	4.94	5.12	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	135	570	171	55	21	100%	6.1	30.0%	9.6%	20.5%	3.6%	4.07	4.14	+2.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	120	507	149	50	19	100%	6.0	29.3%	9.9%	19.5%	3.8%	4.23	4.34	+1.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	106	448	128	46	18	100%	5.9	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	4.0%	4.44	4.57	+1.0
2031	32	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	91	384	107	41	16	100%	6.1	27.8%	10.6%	17.2%	4.3%	4.67	4.83	+0.6
2032	33	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	73	308	83	34	14	100%	6.1	27.0%	11.1%	15.9%	4.6%	4.93	5.11	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	183	1036	4347	1220	438	155	100%	5.7	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	3.6%	4.02	3.96	+17.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	839	236	85	30	100%	5.7	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	3.6%	4.02	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		138	138	702	2889	789	287	86	100%	5.1	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.0%	3.27	3.68	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	823	225	82	24	100%	5.1	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.0%	3.27	3.68	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 12 IPFIP 3.61 → 3.94 (+0.33)K% 34.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.860	29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.07%	—	×0.900	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.060	×1.100	3.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 46 IPFIP 3.54 → 3.90 (+0.36)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.48%	—	×0.900	10.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.28%	÷1.037	×1.100	3.48%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAkron RubberDucks · 14 IPFIP 0.63 → 1.31 (+0.68)K% 37.7% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.74%	—	×0.810	30.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.100	6.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.909	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 0.63 → 1.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 70 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.47 (+0.91)K% 29.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.08%	—	×0.810	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.100	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷1.014	×1.200	3.78%

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 45 IPFIP 0.79 → 1.72 (+0.93)K% 39.9% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.88%	—	×0.770	30.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.134	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 0.79 → 1.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.34	29.4%	19.5%	362	+0.36	—	—	—
Max Scherzer R 2012 · 3.23 FIP	28	SP	3.23	29.4%	7.4%	3.0%	.328	2.71	29.1%	23.4%	663	-0.52	2.13	3,078	69
Chris Archer R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	29.2%	7.0%	3.3%	.322	4.20	26.2%	17.7%	268	+0.89	2.85	1,371	64
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	59
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	59
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	58
Frankie Montas R 2021 · 3.32 FIP	28	SP	3.32	26.6%	7.2%	2.8%	.291	3.94	23.0%	14.6%	295	+0.62	2.82	1,009	56
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	54
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	53
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	2,006	52
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	52
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	52
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	52
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	52
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	52
Chan Ho Park R 2001 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP	3.67	22.2%	9.2%	2.3%	.246	5.18	16.2%	5.5%	271	+1.51	3.20	1,981	52
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	51
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	51
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	51
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	2.94	1,185	50
Darren Dreifort R 2000 · 4.77 FIP	28	SP	4.77	19.5%	10.2%	3.7%	.257	3.86	23.4%	12.7%	155	-0.91	2.87	873	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	119	28.4%	10.0%	1.38	4.01
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Ryan Pepiot ('25)	1.9	94	25.3%	9.2%	1.34	3.54
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Buzz Capra ('71-'77, 4 WAR*)	2.7	109	22.1%*	10.5%*	1.51*	4.21*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30