Gavin Williams — OGILVIE

Gavin Williams P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 179 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.95

FIP3.99

K%30.6%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%21.3%

ROS IP179

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p9032.8%

p9033.2%

xwOBA vs

p600.302

CT+2.3 (6%)

SL+2.3 (29%)

FB+1.7 (43%)

SI (16%)

CU (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$16M	+$12M
2028	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$11M	+$6M
2029	Arb-3	$7M	+1.0	$7M	+$1M
2030	Arb-4	$8M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$17M		$36M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	100%	4.6	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	2.4%	1.96	3.44	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	100%	4.6	33.1%	8.9%	24.2%	2.0%	1.96	2.57	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	25.8%	10.0%	15.7%	2.5%	2.91	3.55	+2.3
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	27.9%	10.3%	17.6%	2.4%	2.91	3.37	+2.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	24.7%	9.8%	14.8%	2.3%	4.84	3.54	+1.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	24.7%	9.8%	14.8%	2.3%	4.84	3.54	+1.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	25.2%	9.6%	15.7%	2.2%	4.84	3.40	+1.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.32	+1.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.32	+1.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.30	+1.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	184	746	248	61	28	100%	5.8	33.2%	8.2%	25.1%	3.8%	3.76	3.39	+3.4
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	184	746	248	61	28	100%	5.8	33.2%	8.2%	25.1%	3.8%	3.76	3.39	+3.4
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	32	32	184	746	248	61	28	100%	5.8	33.2%	8.2%	25.1%	3.8%	3.76	3.38	+3.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			95	95	510	2127	581	212	66	100%	5.4	27.3%	10.0%	17.3%	3.1%	3.62	3.75	+7.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	30	30	179	756	231	71	26	100%	6.0	30.6%	9.4%	21.3%	3.5%	3.95	3.99	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	171	721	217	69	26	100%	6.1	30.0%	9.6%	20.5%	3.6%	4.07	4.15	+1.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	161	678	199	67	26	100%	5.9	29.3%	9.9%	19.4%	3.8%	4.24	4.35	+1.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	632	181	65	26	100%	6.0	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	4.0%	4.45	4.59	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	139	585	163	62	25	100%	6.0	27.8%	10.6%	17.1%	4.3%	4.68	4.84	+0.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	127	537	145	60	25	100%	6.1	26.9%	11.1%	15.8%	4.6%	4.94	5.12	-0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	171	722	217	69	26	100%	6.1	30.0%	9.6%	20.5%	3.6%	4.07	4.15	+1.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	161	680	199	67	26	100%	6.0	29.3%	9.9%	19.4%	3.8%	4.23	4.34	+1.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	150	633	181	65	26	100%	6.0	28.6%	10.2%	18.4%	4.0%	4.44	4.58	+0.5
2031	32	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	139	587	163	62	25	100%	6.0	27.8%	10.6%	17.1%	4.3%	4.67	4.83	+0.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	144	59	24	100%	6.0	26.9%	11.1%	15.8%	4.6%	4.93	5.11	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		220	220	1257	5281	1485	535	193	100%	5.7	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	3.7%	4.11	4.02	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	840	236	85	31	100%	5.7	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	3.7%	4.11	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		138	138	702	2889	789	287	86	100%	5.1	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.0%	3.27	3.68	+9.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	823	225	82	24	100%	5.1	27.3%	9.9%	17.4%	3.0%	3.27	3.68	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	30.6%	9.4%	3.5%	—	4.35	29.4%	19.5%	481	+0.36	—	—	—
Max Scherzer R 2012 · 3.23 FIP	28	SP	3.23	29.4%	7.4%	3.0%	.328	2.71	29.1%	23.4%	663	-0.52	2.13	3,078	69
Chris Archer R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	29.2%	7.0%	3.3%	.322	4.20	26.2%	17.7%	268	+0.89	2.85	1,371	64
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	59
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	59
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	58
Frankie Montas R 2021 · 3.32 FIP	28	SP	3.32	26.6%	7.2%	2.8%	.291	3.94	23.0%	14.6%	295	+0.62	2.82	1,009	56
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	54
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	53
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	52
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	2,006	52
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	52
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	52
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	52
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	52
Chan Ho Park R 2001 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP	3.67	22.2%	9.2%	2.3%	.246	5.18	16.2%	5.5%	271	+1.51	3.20	1,981	52
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	51
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	51
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	51
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	2.94	1,185	50
Darren Dreifort R 2000 · 4.77 FIP	28	SP	4.77	19.5%	10.2%	3.7%	.257	3.86	23.4%	12.7%	155	-0.91	2.87	873	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	144	28.4%	10.0%	1.41	4.09
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Trevor Bauer ('21)	6.5	162	25.9%	9.0%	1.11	3.79
Chris Archer ('22)	6.8	151	25.4%	8.3%	1.09	3.93
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Ryan Pepiot ('25)	1.9	94	25.3%	9.2%	1.34	3.54
Jake Odorizzi ('22)	6.3	139	22.2%	8.1%	1.23	3.99