Gavin Williams — OGILVIE

Gavin Williams P Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.8 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION169 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.17

FIP3.35

K%31.7%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%22.8%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 184 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.6

Whiff%

p9032.5%

p9033.5%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

CT+2.3 (6%)

SL+2.3 (28%)

FB+1.7 (43%)

SI (16%)

CU (23%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$13M	+$8M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.3	$9M	+$2M
2029	Arb-4	$10M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$25M	+$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	100%	4.6	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	2.4%	1.96	3.44	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	450	149	40	9	100%	4.6	33.1%	8.9%	24.2%	2.0%	1.96	2.57	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	2.5%	2.91	3.58	+2.3
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	2.5%	2.91	3.58	+2.3
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	142	581	162	60	14	100%	5.1	27.9%	10.3%	17.6%	2.4%	2.91	3.37	+2.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	2.3%	4.84	3.55	+1.5
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	2.3%	4.84	3.55	+1.5
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	93	408	103	39	9	100%	4.2	25.2%	9.6%	15.7%	2.2%	4.84	3.40	+1.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.32	+1.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.32	+1.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	168	704	173	83	23	100%	5.4	24.6%	11.8%	12.8%	3.3%	3.06	4.30	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			92	92	495	2062	561	204	65	100%	5.4	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	3.2%	3.62	3.78	+6.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	29	29	169	681	228	53	27	100%	5.8	33.5%	7.8%	25.7%	4.0%	3.78	3.44	+3.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	29	29	169	681	228	53	27	100%	5.8	33.5%	7.8%	25.7%	4.0%	3.78	3.44	+3.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	CLE	29	29	169	681	228	53	27	100%	5.8	33.5%	7.8%	25.7%	4.0%	3.78	3.43	+3.0
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CLE	29	29	169	681	228	53	27	100%	5.8	33.5%	7.8%	25.7%	4.0%	3.78	3.43	+3.0
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	3	3	15	65	20	6	2	100%	5.1	31.7%	8.9%	22.8%	3.3%	3.17	3.35	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	15	63	20	6	2	100%	7.5	31.7%	8.9%	22.8%	3.3%	3.17	3.35	+0.3
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	184	746	248	59	29	—	—	33.3%	7.9%	25.4%	3.9%	3.73	3.43	+3.3
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	184	778	248	59	29	—	—	31.9%	7.6%	24.4%	3.7%	3.73	3.41	+3.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	164	694	214	63	25	100%	6.1	30.8%	9.1%	21.7%	3.7%	3.94	4.04	+1.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	157	662	200	62	25	100%	6.0	30.2%	9.3%	20.9%	3.8%	4.10	4.20	+1.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	148	623	184	60	25	100%	5.9	29.5%	9.6%	19.9%	4.0%	4.29	4.41	+0.8
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	138	581	167	58	25	100%	6.0	28.8%	10.0%	18.8%	4.2%	4.50	4.64	+0.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	127	537	150	56	24	100%	6.1	28.0%	10.4%	17.6%	4.5%	4.74	4.90	0.0
2032	33	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	117	493	134	53	24	100%	6.1	27.2%	10.8%	16.3%	4.8%	5.00	5.18	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	164	692	214	63	25	100%	6.1	30.8%	9.1%	21.7%	3.7%	3.93	4.03	+1.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	157	663	201	62	25	100%	6.0	30.2%	9.3%	20.9%	3.8%	4.09	4.19	+1.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	148	625	185	60	25	100%	5.9	29.5%	9.6%	19.9%	4.0%	4.28	4.40	+0.8
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	138	583	168	58	25	100%	6.0	28.8%	10.0%	18.8%	4.2%	4.49	4.63	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	150	56	24	100%	6.0	28.0%	10.4%	17.6%	4.5%	4.73	4.89	0.0
2032	33	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	117	494	134	53	24	100%	5.8	27.2%	10.8%	16.3%	4.8%	4.99	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	236	1360	5716	1631	561	215	100%	5.8	28.5%	9.8%	18.7%	3.8%	4.09	4.00	+14.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	841	240	82	32	100%	5.8	28.5%	9.8%	18.7%	3.8%	4.09	4.00	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		135	135	687	2824	767	279	85	100%	5.1	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	3.0%	3.26	3.70	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	822	223	81	25	100%	5.1	27.2%	9.9%	17.3%	3.0%	3.26	3.70	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Williams (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	25.2%	11.2%	3.0%	—	4.21	30.2%	20.9%	469	-0.22	—	—	—
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	70
Danny Salazar R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	27	SP	3.34	33.0%	10.0%	3.2%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	425	63
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	62
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	61
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	60
Mike Clevinger R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	25.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.278	2.73	31.6%	23.9%	168	-0.69	2.28	1,236	59
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.1%	10.6%	183	+1.12	3.40	349	59
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	56
Joe Ryan R 2023 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	29.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.301	3.37	27.5%	22.4%	436	-0.50	2.41	961	56
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	56
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.9%	344	+0.69	3.60	801	55
Ian Kennedy R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.94	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.72	2.88	864	54
Dinelson Lamet R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	27	SP	3.74	32.7%	9.2%	4.1%	.286	2.90	31.4%	21.8%	148	-0.84	2.11	778	54
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,198	52
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	52
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2021 · 3.30 FIP	27	SP	3.30	27.0%	11.1%	1.9%	.266	3.92	25.0%	13.2%	59	+0.62	2.77	861	52
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	51
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	50
Jake Odorizzi R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP	5.39	21.0%	9.9%	5.1%	.225	3.63	24.7%	16.1%	337	-1.76	3.16	1,048	50
Domingo Germán R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP	4.35	25.8%	6.6%	4.7%	.255	4.10	22.0%	15.5%	171	-0.25	3.29	777	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	145	28.6%	10.0%	1.53	4.36
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75