Gavin Williams
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 250 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION113 act + 76 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.59
FIP3.77
K%28.0%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%18.6%
ROS IP76
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 189 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8597.0
Whiff%
p7729.6%
K%
p8729.1%
xwOBA vs
p390.324
CT+2.3 (9%)
SL+2.3 (27%)
FB+1.7 (42%)
SI (19%)
CU (23%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 450 | 149 | 40 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 2.3% | 1.96 | 3.43 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 115 | 450 | 149 | 40 | 9 | 100% | 4.6 | 33.1% | 8.9% | 24.2% | 2.0% | 1.96 | 2.57 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 142 | 581 | 162 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.0% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 2.4% | 2.91 | 3.58 | +3.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 142 | 581 | 162 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.9% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 2.4% | 2.91 | 3.37 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 93 | 408 | 103 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 4.84 | 3.55 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 93 | 408 | 103 | 39 | 9 | 100% | 4.2 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 4.84 | 3.40 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 168 | 704 | 173 | 83 | 23 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 3.06 | 4.32 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 168 | 704 | 173 | 83 | 23 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 3.06 | 4.30 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 19 | 19 | 113 | 460 | 134 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 3.7% | 3.81 | 3.69 | +2.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 76 | 319 | 89 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.0% | 9.4% | 18.6% | 3.4% | 3.59 | 3.77 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 90 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 28.0% | 9.4% | 18.6% | 3.3% | 3.59 | 3.77 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 189 | 779 | 223 | 67 | 28 | — | — | 28.7% | 8.6% | 20.1% | 3.6% | 3.72 | 3.72 | +3.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 189 | 798 | 223 | 67 | 28 | — | — | 28.0% | 8.4% | 19.6% | 3.5% | 3.72 | 3.71 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 191 | 67 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.5% | 9.6% | 17.9% | 3.5% | 4.16 | 4.27 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 157 | 662 | 178 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.32 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 163 | 63 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.51 | 4.64 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 138 | 581 | 148 | 61 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.73 | 4.87 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 132 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 4.97 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 117 | 493 | 117 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 5.23 | 5.40 | 0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 27 | 164 | 692 | 190 | 66 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.5% | 9.6% | 17.9% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.27 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 178 | 65 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.9% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 3.6% | 4.32 | 4.43 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 164 | 63 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.50 | 4.63 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 138 | 583 | 148 | 61 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.72 | 4.86 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 132 | 58 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 4.3% | 4.96 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 118 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 4.5% | 5.22 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 236 | 236 | 1365 | 5749 | 1486 | 588 | 206 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 3.6% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +19.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 843 | 218 | 86 | 30 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.8% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 3.6% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 125 | 631 | 2603 | 677 | 267 | 74 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.0% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 3.22 | 3.77 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 40 | 200 | 825 | 214 | 85 | 24 | 100% | 5.1 | 26.0% | 10.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 3.22 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gavin Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 26.9% | 17.0% | 469 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Kodai Senga R 2029 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 61 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 58 |
| Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.83 | 27.4% | 7.9% | 3.7% | .294 | 3.76 | 27.5% | 19.6% | 469 | -0.07 | 2.88 | 1,018 | 57 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 57 |
| Alec Marsh R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.91 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 424 | 55 |
| Jon Gray R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.40 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .308 | 3.65 | 23.5% | 15.5% | 315 | +0.25 | 2.79 | 1,345 | 54 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 54 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.21 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .278 | 5.68 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 139 | +1.47 | 3.17 | 938 | 53 |
| Michael Pineda R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.48 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 3.3% | .334 | 4.00 | 22.9% | 18.2% | 242 | +0.52 | 2.00 | 786 | 53 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.19 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.68 | 2.48 | 556 | 53 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.39 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.66 | 27.0% | 19.9% | 413 | +0.27 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 53 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 53 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 53 |
| Mike Clevinger R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .278 | 2.78 | 31.6% | 23.9% | 168 | -0.64 | 2.28 | 1,227 | 52 |
| Josh Lowey R 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.30 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .311 | 2.34 | 26.7% | 20.1% | 231 | -0.96 | 2.28 | 426 | 51 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 51 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 50 |
| Ryan Pepiot R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.39 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 610 | 50 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.78 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.50 | 25.5% | 16.1% | 139 | -0.28 | 2.34 | 577 | 50 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.54 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 4.3% | .264 | 5.42 | 19.4% | 7.5% | 145 | +0.88 | 3.67 | 509 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 145 | 25.8% | 10.5% | 1.46 | 4.55 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |