Ryan Pepiot

P Tampa Bay Rays

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	14	9	65	2.78	3.80	25.4%	4.0%	1.2	K 24.0% · BB 3.8% · FIP 3.97
2024	26	MIX2 levels	27	27	133	3.51	3.65	27.0%	9.1%	2.8	K 26.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.78
2025	27	MLBTB	31	31	168	3.86	4.22	24.6%	9.0%	2.3
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBTB	16	16	95	4.13	4.38	25.1%	8.9%	1.1
2028PROJ	30	MLBTB	19	19	116	4.35	4.53	24.4%	9.2%	1.1
2029PROJ	31	MLBTB	15	15	92	4.59	4.76	23.7%	9.6%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.029First FA2029

2027Arb-2$4M2028Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%63

FB Velo60

xwOBA vs51

CompsTylor Megill (age 29) · Chase Anderson (age 29) · Kenta Maeda (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.13

FIP4.38

K%25.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%16.2%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$9M	+$4M
2028	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$10M		$17M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	23	98	31	13	0	77%	1.8	20.4%	14.0%	6.5%	0.0%	1.93	3.14	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	23	98	31	13	0	77%	1.8	31.6%	13.3%	18.4%	0.0%	1.93	2.11	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	101	435	127	47	19	85%	3.9	24.4%	11.6%	12.7%	5.1%	4.62	5.29	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	101	435	127	47	19	85%	3.9	29.2%	10.8%	18.4%	4.4%	4.62	4.42	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	128	529	156	63	16	86%	4.6	26.9%	12.2%	14.7%	3.2%	2.82	4.12	+1.9
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	128	529	156	63	16	86%	4.6	29.5%	11.9%	17.6%	3.0%	2.82	3.77	+2.5
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	65	252	64	10	11	64%	4.6	24.0%	3.8%	20.2%	4.4%	2.78	3.97	+1.1
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	65	252	64	10	11	64%	4.6	25.4%	4.0%	21.4%	4.4%	2.78	3.80	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	100%	4.9	26.3%	8.9%	17.4%	3.2%	3.51	3.78	+2.6
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	100%	4.9	26.3%	8.9%	17.4%	3.2%	3.51	3.78	+2.6
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	100%	4.9	27.0%	9.1%	17.9%	3.1%	3.51	3.65	+2.8
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.7%	3.86	4.20	+2.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.7%	3.86	4.20	+2.4
2025	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	100%	5.4	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	3.8%	3.86	4.22	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			74	67	376	1537	389	141	56	91%	5.1	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	3.6%	3.54	4.09	+5.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TB	16	16	95	401	101	36	14	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.9%	16.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.38	+1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	116	491	120	45	18	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.6%	4.40	4.58	+1.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	92	388	92	37	15	100%	6.1	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.65	4.82	+0.6
2030	32	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	73	308	70	31	13	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	4.1%	4.90	5.07	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	116	490	120	45	17	100%	6.1	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.5%	4.35	4.53	+1.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	92	37	15	100%	6.1	23.7%	9.6%	14.1%	3.8%	4.59	4.76	+0.6
2030	32	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	73	308	71	31	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	4.0%	4.84	5.01	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	114	657	2723	671	254	100	94%	5.4	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.7%	3.97	4.22	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	829	204	77	30	94%	5.4	24.6%	9.3%	15.3%	3.7%	3.97	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		139	123	618	2545	641	249	93	88%	4.4	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	3.7%	3.51	4.22	+7.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	824	208	81	30	88%	4.4	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	3.7%	3.51	4.22	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 23 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.26 (+0.48)K% 28.0% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.96%	—	×0.860	24.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×0.900	4.84%
HR / BF /BF	4.30%	÷1.006	×1.100	4.70%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 91 IPFIP 3.21 → 3.74 (+0.53)K% 30.9% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.89%	—	×0.880	27.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.050	10.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷0.997	×1.100	2.99%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 60 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.39 (+1.17)K% 34.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.76%	—	×0.810	28.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×1.100	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.00%	÷0.935	×1.200	3.86%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 42 IPFIP 5.75 → 6.32 (+0.57)K% 22.8% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.77%	—	×0.880	20.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.40%	—	×1.050	10.92%
HR / BF /BF	5.94%	÷1.016	×1.100	6.43%

Result: FIP 5.75 → 6.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 18 IPFIP 2.27 → 3.14 (+0.88)K% 27.6% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.63%	—	×0.740	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×1.180	13.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.018	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.27 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Dodgers Mota · 5 IPFIP 1.56 → 3.37 (+1.80)K% 45.5% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.45%	—	×0.680	30.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×1.250	22.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.56 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Pepiot (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	25.1%	8.9%	3.4%	—	4.79	23.8%	14.2%	281	+0.41	—	—	—
Tylor Megill R 2024 · 3.33 FIP	29	SP	3.33	27.0%	9.7%	2.4%	.301	3.33	27.4%	16.4%	83	+0.00	3.02	603	67
Chase Anderson R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	29	SP	3.30	23.4%	7.0%	2.3%	.259	4.81	20.8%	12.5%	331	+1.51	3.30	1,260	67
Kenta Maeda R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP	3.81	25.1%	5.9%	3.8%	.273	3.24	28.7%	21.7%	346	-0.57	2.87	1,092	62
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	62
Jameson Taillon R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	23.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.268	4.02	20.2%	15.0%	497	-0.07	3.12	1,401	62
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	61
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	61
Asher Wojciechowski R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	22.4%	7.8%	4.4%	.267	5.05	22.0%	13.3%	234	+0.45	3.15	678	60
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	60
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	60
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	59
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	59
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	58
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	299	58
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	58
Anthony DeSclafani R 2019 · 3.99 FIP	29	SP	3.99	24.0%	6.3%	3.9%	.268	3.98	21.1%	14.5%	220	-0.01	3.38	1,014	58
Mike Clevinger R 2020 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	24.7%	8.6%	3.6%	.275	4.24	19.4%	12.2%	246	+0.15	2.28	1,236	58
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	57
Chris Bassitt R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	29	SP-	3.49	20.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.307	3.64	23.5%	16.8%	364	+0.15	2.92	1,596	57
Philip Humber R 2012 · 5.41 FIP	29	SP-	5.41	18.4%	9.3%	4.9%	.289	4.82	13.9%	6.6%	55	-0.59	2.97	362	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	24.7%	9.3%	1.43	4.02
Bob Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	3.5	115	23.4%*	8.9%*	1.49*	4.12*
Buzz Capra ('71-'77, 4 WAR*)	2.7	109	22.1%*	10.5%*	1.51*	4.21*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46