Ryan Pepiot
P
Tampa Bay Rays
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.3 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 162 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116106vR 97
ERA4.17
FIP4.50
K%25.2%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%16.5%
ROS IP163
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p5526.0%
K%
p6324.6%
xwOBA vs
p510.311
CH+4.8 (25%)
CT+3.5 (6%)
FB+1.0 (47%)
SI (2%)
CU (3%)
SL-4.0 (18%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 23 | 98 | 31 | 13 | 0 | 77% | 1.8 | 20.4% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 3.14 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 23 | 98 | 31 | 13 | 0 | 77% | 1.8 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 1.93 | 2.11 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 101 | 435 | 127 | 47 | 19 | 85% | 3.9 | 24.4% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 4.62 | 5.35 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 101 | 435 | 127 | 47 | 19 | 85% | 3.9 | 29.2% | 10.8% | 18.4% | 4.4% | 4.62 | 4.42 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 128 | 529 | 156 | 63 | 16 | 86% | 4.6 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 2.82 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 128 | 529 | 156 | 63 | 16 | 86% | 4.6 | 29.5% | 11.9% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 2.82 | 3.77 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 65 | 252 | 64 | 10 | 11 | 64% | 4.6 | 24.2% | 4.1% | 20.1% | 4.7% | 2.78 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 65 | 252 | 64 | 10 | 11 | 64% | 4.6 | 25.4% | 4.0% | 21.4% | 4.4% | 2.78 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 133 | 552 | 149 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 26.3% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 3.3% | 3.51 | 3.84 | +2.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 133 | 552 | 149 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.0% | 9.1% | 17.9% | 3.1% | 3.51 | 3.65 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 168 | 679 | 167 | 61 | 26 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 4.1% | 3.86 | 4.39 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 31 | 31 | 168 | 679 | 167 | 61 | 26 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 3.8% | 3.86 | 4.22 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 109 | 462 | 117 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 3.7% | 4.17 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 155 | 656 | 162 | 59 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 146 | 617 | 148 | 57 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 4.1% | 4.70 | 4.87 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 136 | 575 | 133 | 55 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 4.94 | 5.10 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 119 | 53 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 5.19 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TB | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 161 | 59 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 3.8% | 4.40 | 4.60 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TB | 24 | 24 | 146 | 616 | 148 | 57 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 14.7% | 4.0% | 4.64 | 4.81 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 133 | 55 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | 4.88 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 119 | 53 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 4.4% | 5.12 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 168 | 161 | 940 | 3917 | 951 | 366 | 153 | 96% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.26 | 4.37 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 34 | 200 | 834 | 202 | 78 | 33 | 96% | 5.6 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 3.9% | 4.26 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 139 | 123 | 618 | 2545 | 642 | 250 | 98 | 88% | 4.4 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 3.51 | 4.32 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 824 | 208 | 81 | 32 | 88% | 4.4 | 25.2% | 9.8% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 3.51 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Pepiot (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 25.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% | — | 4.87 | 24.0% | 14.7% | 438 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 59 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 57 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.05 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | .285 | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 438 | -0.62 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 56 |
| Kodai Senga R 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.40 | 29.1% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .274 | 4.64 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 164 | +1.24 | 3.40 | 330 | 56 |
| Jake Odorizzi R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.90 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .284 | 3.67 | 24.3% | 16.6% | 277 | -0.23 | 3.16 | 1,048 | 55 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2029 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.80 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .309 | 4.37 | 22.0% | 16.2% | 300 | +0.57 | 2.03 | 804 | 54 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.39 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.66 | 27.0% | 19.9% | 413 | +0.27 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 54 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 54 |
| Dan Straily R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.50 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 4.3% | .283 | 5.51 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 237 | +1.01 | 3.42 | 890 | 53 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 53 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 53 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 53 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.95 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .277 | 6.04 | 12.2% | 0.4% | 144 | +2.09 | 3.95 | 489 | 52 |
| Drew Gagnon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.22 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .309 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 112 | +1.00 | 3.74 | 534 | 52 |
| Chris Archer R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.36 | 29.2% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .322 | 4.06 | 26.2% | 17.7% | 268 | +0.70 | 2.88 | 1,018 | 52 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 52 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2029 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 4.58 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 285 | +0.91 | 3.67 | 469 | 51 |
| Jordan Lyles R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.55 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 4.3% | .283 | 4.71 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 417 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 1,080 | 51 |
| Mike Fiers R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.72 | 23.7% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .277 | 4.56 | 19.9% | 13.3% | 494 | +0.84 | 3.72 | 918 | 51 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.42 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 4.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 509 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 135 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.59 | 4.70 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |