Ryan Pepiot — OGILVIE

Ryan Pepiot P Tampa Bay Rays

+0.5 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.5 · 2027

ERA4.07

FIP4.41

xFIP4.07

SIERA4.05

K%24.9%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%16.1%

IP158

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.5peak

2027

K†6060

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p6324.6%

xwOBA vs

p510.311

CH+4.8 (25%)

CT+3.5 (6%)

FB+1.0 (47%)

SI (2%)

CU (3%)

SL-4.0 (18%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	13	10	23	98	31	13	0	20.4%	14.0%	0.0%	1.93	3.14	+0.5
2021	23	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	26	22	101	435	127	47	19	24.4%	11.6%	5.1%	4.62	5.30	+0.0
2022	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	28	24	128	529	156	63	16	26.9%	12.2%	3.2%	2.82	4.13	+1.7
2023	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	9	65	252	64	10	11	24.2%	4.1%	4.4%	2.78	4.00	+0.7
2024	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	27	27	133	552	149	50	17	26.3%	8.9%	3.2%	3.51	3.75	+2.3
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	31	31	168	679	167	61	26	24.6%	9.0%	3.7%	3.86	4.21	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	TB	47	—	47	200	51	18	7	25.4%	8.8%	3.5%	4.03	4.38	+0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	TB	28	28	154	651	163	58	23	25.0%	8.9%	3.6%	4.28	4.45	+1.5
2028	30	MLB	TB	27	27	150	632	154	57	23	24.4%	9.0%	3.6%	4.44	4.54	+1.3
2029	31	MLB	TB	26	26	144	610	145	56	23	23.8%	9.1%	3.7%	4.57	4.65	+1.1
2030	32	MLB	TB	25	25	139	585	136	54	22	23.2%	9.3%	3.8%	4.69	4.77	+0.8
2031	33	MLB	TB	24	24	132	559	126	53	22	22.5%	9.4%	3.9%	4.81	4.89	+0.6
2032	34	MLB	TB	23	23	126	531	116	51	21	21.8%	9.6%	4.0%	4.94	5.03	+0.4
2033	35	MLB	TB	22	22	119	501	106	49	20	21.1%	9.9%	4.1%	5.09	5.18	+0.2
2034	36	MLB	TB	20	20	111	468	95	47	20	20.3%	10.1%	4.2%	5.24	5.35	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			139	123	618	2545	642	250	93	25.2%	9.8%	3.7%	3.51	4.22	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—			45	40	200	824	208	81	30	25.2%	9.8%	3.7%	3.51	4.22	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Pepiot (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	25.4%	8.8%	3.5%	—	4.54	24.4%	15.4%	448	+0.16	—	—	—
Brad Brach R 2027 · 3.22 FIP	29	SW	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.21	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.01	2.80	410	49
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2029 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	48
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	28	SW	3.48	24.5%	7.9%	2.6%	.302	3.74	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.26	1.69	468	48
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	28	SW	3.54	25.1%	9.1%	2.6%	.277	3.88	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.34	2.86	596	48
Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	28	SW	3.91	20.2%	7.4%	2.9%	.348	3.55	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.36	2.38	160	47
Jumbo Diaz R 2029 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	47
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	46
Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	22.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.313	4.10	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.18	2.48	507	46
Matt Andriese R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	28	SW	4.45	22.9%	5.9%	4.6%	.304	3.59	24.7%	17.5%	151	-0.86	3.05	744	46
Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	28	SW	3.63	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	124	46
Arquimedes Caminero R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	28	SW	3.38	23.0%	8.5%	2.1%	.265	4.49	17.9%	6.5%	61	+1.11	3.38	173	46
Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.41 FIP	29	SW	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.31	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.90	3.41	104	46
Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	28	SW	3.30	24.0%	9.5%	1.8%	.271	2.97	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.33	1.54	521	46
Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	28	SW	3.38	25.8%	10.6%	2.0%	.253	3.83	23.4%	16.9%	154	+0.45	2.84	484	46
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 3.84 FIP	26	SW	3.84	21.6%	8.2%	2.8%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	206	46
Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	28	SW	4.16	21.9%	8.4%	3.4%	.275	3.85	22.1%	12.1%	103	-0.31	2.36	309	46
Joakim Soria R 2029 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	45
Buck Farmer R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	28	SW	3.55	25.3%	7.6%	2.9%	.292	4.04	23.4%	12.9%	152	+0.49	3.22	907	45
Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	45
Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	28	SW	4.02	27.2%	11.0%	3.3%	.262	3.32	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.70	2.94	708	45

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$12M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.3	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$14M		$25M	+$11M